NY-Gov: NY Papers Say That Paterson Will Pull Plug on Re-Election Bid

From the Post and the Daily News:

Embattled Gov. Paterson has pulled the plug on his election bid, a source close to the governor said Friday.

Paterson will announce the decision later Friday.

Paterson has been under fire for having contacted a woman who accused one of his top aides of domestic violence.

The source said the governor has agreed not to seek election, but he will not resign – opting to serve out the remainder of his term.

The Post adds that a retirement announcement should come down between 11:30am and 12:30pm. Is our long New York nightmare finally over?

(UPDATE) (David): It’s official – Paterson won’t run this fall.

NY-Gov: David Paterson will not seek re-election — or resign

It seems that even David Paterson could read the handwriting on the wall:

Embattled Gov. Paterson has pulled the plug on his election bid, a source close to the governor said Friday.

Paterson will announce the decision later Friday.

Paterson has been under fire for having contacted a woman who accused one of his top aides of domestic violence.

The source said the governor has agreed not to seek election, but he will not resign – opting to serve out the remainder of his term.

Full article: http://www.nydailynews.com/new…

The ball would now seem to be in Andrew Cuomo’s court – one would assume that this will move up the timetable for his campaign announcement and roll-out considerably. Can he be expected to pounce quickly and decisively like his Connecticut compatriot Dick Blumenthal, or continue to dither in the manner of the ignominious Beau Biden?

By what margin will Bob Shamansky win?

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Good news for Texas Democrats

Bill White, the former Mayor of Houston, is sitting on $5.4 million for the general election.  Roughly twice as much as either Rick Perry or Kay Bailey Hutchinson.  

Kay Bailey Hutchinson

1.1M raised

8M spent

2.3M Cash on Hand

Rick Perry

850K raised

8.8M spent

2.5M CoH

Debra Medina

450K raised

228k spent

291K CoH

Bill White

2.2M raised

2.7M spent

5.4M CoH

Farouk Shami

1.1M raised

5M spent

1M CoH

Thanks to the BurntOrangeReport for the numbers


By what margin will Bob Shamansky win?

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AZ-03: Phil Gordon Won’t Run

From the Arizona Republic:

Phoenix Mayor Phil Gordon has announced that he will not run for the seat of retiring Republican Congressman John Shadegg.

The two-term Democratic mayor had weighed whether to enter the race for the Republican-leaning Congressional District 3, which includes the northern portion of Phoenix, parts of Paradise Valley and far north suburbs. […]

Gordon added that as he considered a congressional run, he received “exciting” encouragement from power brokers in Washington D.C. as well as from Republicans and Democrats in the Valley. U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi

and the chairman of the committee aimed at getting Democrats elected to Congress had approached Gordon about the seat.

Gordon, who had been gauging runs both as a Democrat and as an independent, may have been a strong general election candidate, but as a John McCain Democrat, may have had some problems getting through a primary against wealthy attorney Jon Hulburd. You’ve gotta figure that DC Democrats are a bit bummed — not because they think that Gordon would have been a reliable vote (I believe a recent commenter described him as “Bobby Bright with Joe Lieberman’s personality”), but because of the opportunity to draw some Republican fire away from more vulnerable Democrats. Still, Hulburd, with his personal wealth and strong fundraising prowess, may be able to accomplish that task.

RaceTracker Wiki: AZ-03

Charlie Crist to leave GOP

The Sun-Sentinel has learned from 2 sources speaking on background that Charlie Crist will leave the Republican Party and run as an independent in this year’s senate election.

Anyone think Meek could pull off an upset now? I’d guess that Crist and Rubio will each end up taking anywhere from 25-35% of the vote, but I don’t know Florida politics that well.

Link to full article below the fold:


SSP Daily Digest: 2/25

AR-Sen: Here’s one way in which Blanche Lincoln can breathe a little easier: she’s not getting a primary challenge from the right (as if there were any room on the right of her within the Democratic electorate). State Sen. President Bob Johnson, who floated the idea in August, said he won’t run against her. However, she’s drawing heat on her left from African-American groups; the state’s NAACP is upset that she hasn’t done more to appoint African-American federal judges. With Lincoln already on environmentalists’ hit list and organized labor unenthused about her, there isn’t much left of the Democratic base she can afford to tick off. A primary from the left from Lt. Gov. Bill Halter is still possible – although if there’s one guy whose support Halter can’t count on, it’s retiring Blue Dog Rep. Marion Berry (saying it was a fluke Halter got elected LG in the first place, and that Halter “is only of consequence in his own mind”).

CO-Sen: Former state House speaker Andrew Romanoff is counting on labor backing in the Democratic primary, but Michael Bennet got a key boost; he got the endorsement of the SEIU. (That public option letter is already paying dividends.) Meanwhile, Romanoff seems to be staking his hopes on a strong showing in Colorado’s party insider-dominated caucus and convention process that begins next month, in order to catapult him into contention. (It’s non-binding, and candidates can still win the primary without winning at the convention, with Ken Salazar as Exhibit A.) On the GOP side, former LG Jane Norton is getting slammed from the right by former state Sen. Tom Wiens for her support (following the lead of Republican Gov. Bill Owens) of Referendum C, which passed and lifted certain spending limits imposed by a previous TABOR initiative.

FL-Sen: We’ll have to see if this does anything to tarnish that conservative halo that’s gleaming over Marco Rubio’s head. Revelations came out (via Jim Greer, the Charlie Crist ally who recently got bounced out his place as state GOP chair) that Rubio charged $13,900 in personal expenses to a party-issued credit card over the course of several years. I don’t see this as a game-changer, but it’s the first hard blow the Crist camp has been able to land in a while.

GA-Sen: Rasmussen finds that the anti-incumbent blues are even weighing down super-safe Georgia Senator Johnny Isakson a bit, as he’s below 50%. Too bad the Democrats don’t have a top-tier candidate to go against him (although it seems like they have a few spares in the gubernatorial race who might consider making the jump). Isakson beats Generic Dem by 49-36.

NY-Sen-B: Harold Ford Jr.’s big night out at the Stonewall Dems didn’t quite go according to plan. He was repeatedly heckled and shouted down as he attempted to explain his convenient road-to-Damascus conversion on matters such as gay marriage. It also turns out that Ford’s former House colleagues from the New York delegation aren’t much more enthused about his run, either. The majority of the delegation has already endorsed Kirsten Gillibrand, and no one has backed down from that, with Ed Towns, Greg Meeks, Jerry Nadler, Tim Bishop, and Carolyn McCarthy all offering public statements discouraging his run.

UT-Sen: Wow, yet another Republican is going to get into the primary against Bob Bennett, who has a bullseye on his back because of occasional acts of cooperation instead of lockstep obstructionism. This one is actually a step above the rest of the field… or maybe not. Ex-Rep. Merrill Cook says he’s going to get in the race. An ex-Rep. is nothing to sneeze at (especially when none of the other contestants have gotten elected to anything before), but on the other hand, Cook was kind of an eccentric who frequently ran for office until lucking out in 1996. His hotheadedness got him primaried out in 2000 (and Jim Matheson went on to pick up the seat for the Dems that year).

NY-Gov: The blowback from yesterday’s NYT article is already hitting David Paterson’s inner circle, suggesting he isn’t going to be able to shrug this off. Paterson’s Criminal Justice Coordinator, Denise O’Donnell, resigned in protest over having been lied to by the state police.

OR-Gov: Local Republican pollster Moore Insight takes a look at the gubernatorial race — and they find ex-Gov. John Kitzhaber doing a lot better than Rasmussen did. They find Kitzhaber has identical 45-33 leads over the two GOPers they judged the strongest, Allen Alley and Chris Dudley. (Rasmussen actually found long-forgotten ex-state Sen. John Lim fared the best against Kitzhaber of the four GOPers, but apparently Moore didn’t think Lim was worth polling; Rasmussen had Dudley within 6 of Kitzhaber and Alley trailing by 8.) Moore didn’t poll the primaries, or how Democratic ex-SoS Bill Bradbury would fare.

SC-Gov: Winthrop University polled South Carolina without doing gubernatorial head-to-heads, but that may not matter as they also found that few people know anything about anybody who’s running; only LG Andre Bauer came close to 50% name rec. They did find 43 61% approval for Jim DeMint, 39 45% approval for Lindsey Graham, and a surprisingly high (for SC) 48% approval for Barack Obama.

AK-AL: Businessman, blogger, and gadfly Andrew Halcro (who ran as an indie in the 2006 gubernatorial race) sounds like he’s backing down from his planned Republican primary challenge to Rep. Don Young. He cited other developments (all positive) in his business and family life.

HI-01: It looks like Hawaii’s election officials found enough change under the couch cushions to throw together a special election to replace retiring Rep. Neil Abercrombie, after all. They’ve tentatively set a May 22 date for the all-party winner-take-all election. All three candidates plan to run again in the September primary for the regularly-scheduled election.

NJ-03: It looks like NFL player and gentleman farmer Jon Runyan may have a less tortuous path to the GOP nomination than Chris Myers did in 2008 (which helped contribute to Rep. John Adler’s victory that year). Toms River Committeeman Maurice Hill (the dreaded rear admiral who was the favorite of the Ocean County GOP) decided that he won’t run, meaning that all of the county organizations are likely to coalesce around Runyan. Runyan already has the support of the Burlington County party.

PA-12: After recently deciding not to run, Joyce Murtha weighed in with an endorsement in the battle to replace her deceased husband. She endorsed Murtha’s former district director, Mark Critz. The state party will choose a replacement candidate on March 8. On the GOP side, they’ve pretty much struck out on finding an upgrade from the two guys who were already running, businessman Tim Burns and Bill Russell. And now there’s growing worry that Russell — who claims to be the choice of the conservative grassroots, although mostly that’s because he’s been able to churn and burn through millions in direct mail fundraising through BaseConnect (the company known until recently as BMW Direct) — may pull a Doug Hoffman and get on the ballot as an indie if he doesn’t get chosen by the party poohbahs. Even RedState has had to weigh in, praising establishment fave Burns and warning Russell not to bolt — the total opposite of their NY-23 stance, of course, although Burns, who’s tried to reach out to the teabaggers, is no Scozzafava-style moderate.

SD-AL: This is encouraging; even Rasmussen can’t find a way to show Stephanie Herseth Sandlin in grave peril. Herseth Sandlin, who has three different credible GOP candidates fighting it out in the primary to take her on, leads all three, two of them by double digits. Herseth Sandlin beats SoS Chris Nelson 45-38, state House assistant majority leader Kristi Noem 49-34, and self-funding state Rep. Blake Curd 51-33. In fact, these numbers are extremely close to the ones put up by PPP back in December.

IL-LG: Well, here’s a nice solution to the Dems’ woes in trying to find a Lt. Governor candidate in Illinois: just eliminate the position. State House speaker Michael Madigan is bringing to the House floor a plan to altogether eliminate the non-job that is Lt. Governor in 2015 (and save millions). Unfortunately, that still means the Dems need to find someone to fill that slot (vacated by Scott Lee Cohen’s implosion) for one term.

Polltopia: Nate Silver performs a nice deconstruction of the myth that won’t die: that incumbents polling below 50% in early polling are going to lose. He finds there is no consistent tendency for challengers to pick up the bulk of the undecideds. Moreover, a majority of incumbents polling below 50% in the 2006-09 cycles went on to win anyway. (It’d be interesting to extent this study, though, beyond the 06 and 08 wave years to see if it holds true in more neutral cycles.)

IL-Sen, IL-Gov: Nice Leads for Giannoulias, Quinn

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (2/22-24, likely voters, 1/26-28/2009 in parentheses):

Alexi Giannoulias (D): 43 (38)

Mark Kirk (R): 36 (30)

Undecided: 19 (32)

Pat Quinn (D-inc): 47

Bill Brady (R): 32

Undecided: 20

Pat Quinn (D-inc): 46

Kirk Dillard (R): 35

Undecided: 18

(MoE: ±4%)

Here are surprisingly good numbers all around for the Democrats who prevailed in this month’s primary election: incumbent Governor Pat Quinn, and state Treasurer and Senate candidate Alexi Giannoulias. Giannoulias holds a 7-point lead over Republican Rep. Mark Kirk, while Quinn has is in the double digits against both his potential opponents. State Sen. Bill Brady has a lead of several hundred votes in the primary count, but it’ll be at least a week before we know anything official — and we should be glad about Brady, as the socially conservative, downstate Brady fares significantly worse than the moderate, suburban state Sen. Kirk Dillard.

Taking all the post-primary Senate polls together, you get a picture of a closer race (GQR gave Alexi a 4-point lead, Rasmussen gives Kirk a 6-point lead, and a Kirk internal puts him up by a not-too-plausible 12), but given that pundits were preparing the fork to stick in Giannoulias after he weathered pre-primary attacks on his relationship with his family’s bank, he looks to be in decent shape. The only other post-primary poll of IL-Gov, from Victory Research, also gave Quinn leads (with a 9-point edge over Brady), so Quinn may also have survived the worst of it, in terms of his nasty primary with Dan Hynes. (Although current fighting over tax increases, as well as possible further deterioration in the local economy, could take its toll on him.)

RaceTracker Wiki: IL-Sen | IL-Gov

NM-01, NM-02, NM-03: Teague Trails Pearce By 2

Public Policy Polling (2/18-20, registered voters):

Martin Heinrich (D-inc): 45

Jon Barela (R): 36

Undecided: 19

Harry Teague (D-inc): 41

Steve Pearce (R): 43

Undecided: 16

Ben Lujan (D-inc): 40

Adam Kokesh (R): 32

Undecided: 28

Ben Lujan (D-inc): 42

Tom Mullins (R): 36

Undecided: 22

(MoE: ±4.9%)

PPP’s NM-Gov sample comes with an added bonus: results for each of the Land of Enchantment’s three House races. The big ticket item here is NM-02, where Rep. Harry Teague is considered one of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents going into November. That’s not so much because of the district’s lean (it’s R+6 and has a Hispanic plurality — Walt Minnick and Bobby Bright would kill for R+6) but because Teague is facing off against ex-Rep. Steve Pearce, who held the district for a number of years until his ill-fated 2008 Senate run, and is still well-thought-of here (as seen by his 43/31 favorables). While I’d certainly prefer to see Teague leading, all things considered, the 43-41 lead for Pearce feels not-that-bad. Like Tom Perriello in VA-05, Teague seems to have been already written off as a casualty by mainstream media pundits, not only having won a superficially-fluky victory in a reddish district but also having voted for cap-and-trade instead of cowering with the Blue Dogs. And yet (just like Perriello) PPP finds him in a dead heat.

The race in the 1st — between freshman Rep. Martin Heinrich and Jon Barela, the former head of Albuquerque’s Hispanic Chamber of Commerce — is one that, even before this poll, I’d have classified as “Likely D,” given the district’s lean (D+5) and Heinrich’s convincing 2008 victory. The Republicans will have to make a serious dent in the currently “Likely D” seats in order to retake the majority, but it’s looking like NM-01 isn’t on track to be one of those seats where they do.

In fact, the Republicans actually come a little closer in the 3rd, which is the state’s traditionally most Democratic-friendly district at D+7 (although this was briefly held by a Republican in the 1990s after a surprisingly strong Green Party performance in a special election). Part of the problem may lie with its Rep, Ben Lujan (the only one of the three to sport negative approvals, at 31/40 — Teague, by comparison, is at 41/36), but I suspect the 3rd is also a very difficult district to poll. It’s a rural, impoverished district where a sizable number of the Democratic base voters may not speak English or have landlines, which may give more weight to the district’s Republicans clustered around Farmington.

RaceTracker Wiki: NM-01 | NM-02 | NM-03

NM-Gov: Denish Leads Domenici (Jr.) by 5

Our first poll of the race from Public Policy Polling (2/18-20, registered voters):

Diane Denish (D): 45

Pete Domenici, Jr. (R): 40

Undecided: 15

Diane Denish (D): 44

Janice Arnold-Jones (R): 33

Undecided: 19

Diane Denish (D): 46

Susana Martinez (R): 32

Undecided: 21

Diane Denish (D): 46

Doug Turner (R): 32

Undecided: 22

Diane Denish (D): 48

Allen Weh (R): 30

Undecided: 22

(MoE: ±4%)

Pretty decent, though not overwhelming, numbers for Lt. Gov. Diane Denish here, particularly given outgoing Gov. Bill Richardson’s disastrous 28-63 job approval. Domenici leads the Republican pack thanks to his superior name recognition (thanks, dad!), a fact corroborated by a recent poll conducted by a crew of forced laborers college students giving Domenici the inside track for the GOP nomination. But does Domenici, an “environmental” attorney who has never been elected to anything in his life, have the chops to turn a five point deficit into a win?

RaceTracker Wiki: NM-Gov

Once Again, Deadbeat Democrats Are Holding Out on the DCCC

I am really fucking sick of hearing this same tune every cycle:

Lawmakers with direct ties to Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) operations say more members than usual are clinging to every dollar instead of paying their dues. …

[T]he committee is missing dues payments from a significant portion of the caucus.

Several of the missing members are virtually guaranteed to win reelection and are senior enough to have significant fundraising inroads.

Some of these members have a long history of stiffing the DCCC on their member dues.

There’s some pablum from Dem aides in the article trying to sugar-coat this, saying the DCCC is supposedly “right where it needs to be,” that some members like to pay in installments, etc. Whatever. In this cycle, no amount of money will be adequate. And as always, there are members who are just flat-out stiffing the D-Trip. The Hill has a partial list of the offenders:

Appropriations Committee Chairman David Obey (Wis.) has given $100,000 of the $500,000 in dues he owes for the 2010 cycle. Ways and Means Committee Chairman Charles Rangel (N.Y.), who has the same dues goal, has given $150,000. Judiciary Committee Chairman John Conyers Jr. (Mich.), whose dues were set at $250,000, has given the DCCC $45,000.

Intelligence Committee Chairman Silvestre Reyes (Texas) has given even less – $50,000 of the $250,000 expected by the DCCC. And House Administration Committee Chairman Robert Brady (Pa.), whose seat is not considered vulnerable, has not transferred any of his campaign funds to the DCCC, according to the most recent dues report, out Jan. 21.

Memo to deadbeat Dems: If you want to be in the fucking minority next year, please hold on to your cash.