MO-Sen: Blunt Tokes Up a 4-Point Lead

Public Policy Polling (3/27-28, Missouri voters, 11/13-15 in parens):

Robin Carnahan (D): 41 (43)

Roy Blunt (R): 45 (42)

Undecided: 13 (15)

Robin Carnahan (D): 42 (42)

Chuck Purgason (R): 38 (35)

Undecided: 19 (23)

(MoE: ±3.6%)

This poll’s a pretty good sign of the times: Despite Blunt’s unpopularity (he sports a 25-41 favorable rating, compared to Carnahan’s 38-43 rating), he now has a clear edge in this race after trailing Carnahan by low-single digits throughout most of 2009.

Tom Jensen paints some possible routes to a Carnahan victory:

[…] Beyond that 55% of voters trust Jefferson City politicians most to deal with Missouri’s problems compared to only 13% who pick Washington DC. Drawing a contrast between herself as someone who’s worked hard in the state and Blunt as a Washington insider has the potential to pay dividends for Carnahan further down the road.

There are two ways to see Carnahan coming out on top in this race. If Obama’s approval gets even just to the point where the state is equally divided in its feelings about him Carnahan will probably come out on top because of her greater personal popularity and the anti-Washington sentiments of the electorate right now. If Obama’s numbers don’t get any better Carnahan’s going to have to try to shift the election from a referendum on the President to a referendum on Roy Blunt and his record in Washington.

RaceTracker Wiki: MO-Sen

SSP Daily Digest: 3/30

  • AR-Sen: Bill Halter has a new ad up going after Sen. Blanche Lincoln for her vote in favor of TARP – aka the bailout. As is all too often the case with these kinds of reports, there’s no indication of how big the ad buy is.
  • CA-Sen, CA-Gov: Man, the news cycle moves fast these days. The RNC bondage-themed nightclub scandal (which I’m sure you’ve read all about) already had some same-day blowback. GOP senate candidate Chuck DeVore says he’s “severed all ties” with Erik Brown, a consultant who seems to be responsible for the expenses racked up at Voyeur West Hollywood. The Daily Caller (which broke the story originally) also says that Brown did work for Republican gubernatorial hopeful Steve Poizner. Meanwhile, Politico’s Dave Catanese tweets that freshman Sen. Claire McCaskill is sending out a fundraising email for Barbara Boxer.
  • CT-Sen: In the somewhat strange Connecticut Republican senate primary, Paulist economist Peter Schiff has put out his first TV ad… and it doesn’t mention that he’s a Republican. Schiff is spending half a mil to run the ad statewide for two weeks. Schiff also promised to run in the August primary even if he doesn’t get the party nomination at the May convention.
  • KS-Sen: Things have gotten a little worse for Todd Tiahrt in his race against Jerry Moran in the GOP primary to succeed outgoing Sen. Sam Brownback: SUSA now shows Moran up 42-32. Two months ago, Moran led by seven points – and by just three two months before that. The Kansas primary is not until August 3rd, so Tiahrt still has time, but he doesn’t seem to be gaining much traction.
  • KY-Sen: Now things are getting good:
  • Trey Grayson, Kentucky’s secretary of state, used his latest ad to again hammer his rival, Bowling Green eye surgeon Rand Paul, on national security issues.

    “Paul even wonders whether 9/11 was our fault,” a female announcer says in the spot that began airing Thursday. The commercial then shows Paul speaking at a Blue Grass Policy Institute forum in March 2009, saying: “Maybe some of the bad things that happen are a reaction to our presence in some of these countries.”

    I just hope that Grayson doesn’t nuke Paul before our nominee (hopefully Jack Conway) gets a chance to pummel him in the general.

  • NC-Sen: A good get for former state Sen. Cal Cunningham: Gen. Wesley Clark endorsed his fellow Army veteran for the Democratic senate nod. Interestingly, Clark specifically noted Cunningham’s support for ending “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell.”
  • NY-Sen-B: Marist finds ex-Gov. George Pataki with the narrowest of leads over Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, 47-45, essentially unchanged from last month’s 48-45 margin. This is all well and good for Republicans, but Pataki hasn’t given the slightest indication that he’s interested in running.
  • GA-Gov: Looks like Nathan Deal didn’t quit quite fast enough. The Office of Congressional Ethics found (according to the NYT) that Deal “appeared to have improperly used his office to pressure Georgia officials to continue a vehicle inspection program that generated hundreds of thousands of dollars a year for his family’s auto salvage business.”  I wonder how much of an impact this will have in the governor’s race, though, since Deal had mostly been floundering in the polls. Maybe it’ll just be the final nail in his political coffin – a suiting end for a party-switching ex-Democrat.
  • IA-Gov: GOP ex-Gov. and comeback hopeful Terry Branstad is up with his first TV ad of the campaign. No word on the size of the buy, though.
  • MD-Gov: The Baltimore Sun profiles would-be GOP gubernatorial candidate (and ex-gov) Bob Ehrlich and finds that his current job is “‘rainmaker’ for the Baltimore branch of North Carolina-based law firm Womble Carlyle Sandridge & Rice. Ehrlich describes his job as being ‘the face of the firm,’ with his duties including ‘speeches, coffees, dinners, lunches, meetings.'” Sounds like Ehrlich’s been working on honing his Dan Coats/Tommy Thompson pedigree.
  • FL-08: Rep. Alan Grayson, one of the wealthiest members of Congress and a man who has largely self-funded his past campaigns, raised almost half a million dollars in a recent “moneybomb.”
  • NY-13: It looks like the GOP has some primary woes of its own in the 13th CD. Though the Republican establishment is coalescing around former FBI agent Mike Grimm, lawyer Michael Allegretti is vowing to fight on. He’s recently gone up with an ad on cable (so presumably a small buy) demanding repeal of the healthcare reform bill.
  • NY-23: Hah! Could the unlikable Doug Hoffman foment yet another right-wing split? Hoffman is laying claim to the Conservative Party line in this fall’s election, and he’s making the argument that whoever runs for the Republicans will need both lines in order to win. (Pretty plausible!) This is pissing off local GOP leaders, though, who are taking this as a threat to nominate Hoffman – or else face yet another divided ballot. This is some Fancy Feast-level cat fud we’re talking about.
  • NY-29: A more complete list of candidates interviewed by upstate Dems as potential nominees for the special election to fill ex-Rep. Eric Massa’s seat:
  • Mary Wilmot, an aide to Gov. David Paterson, Assemblyman David Koon of Perinton, past candidate for state Senate and businessman David Nachbar of Pittsford, Southern Tier native Matthew Zeller, and Michael McCormick of Allegany County

    Wonder if we might be missing a name, though, since yesterday word was that the Dems would be interviewing six people.

  • OH-16, OH-18: CQ: “Businessman Jim Renacci, who is taking on freshman Rep. John Boccieri in the 16th district, and state Sen. Bob Gibbs, who is running against two-term Rep. Zack Space in the adjacent 18th district, established a joint fundraising committee, ‘Gibbs-Renacci for Congress’ and will split the proceeds evenly.”
  • PA-06: Manan Trivedi is chipping away at Doug Pike’s big lead among organized labor. He picked up a couple of local union endorsements, from the Transport Workers and the Iron Workers.
  • TN-08: Republican potentates are showering even more love on Steve Fincher, this time in the form of a campaign tour with GA Rep. Lynn Westmoreland (of “Obama is uppity” fame). Fincher has a lot of money, but like almost every GOP candidate with establishment backing, he faces a primary from ever-truer conservatives.
  • Census: There’s some speculation that anti-government attitudes (and paranoid black-helicopterism) might be the cause of low Census response rates in Texas. Though the biggest challenge for the Census is typically presented by undercounted groups like blacks and Latinos, some of the lowest response rates are in fact coming from very Republican counties. It’ll be very interesting to compare response rates and voting history when all is said and done.
  • Redistricting: Nathan Gonzales has a detailed look at the powers that are gathering on both sides for the upcoming post-census redistricting battle.
  • A look at the Texas Senate races.

    Republicans control the Texas Senate by a 19-12 margin.  The good news is that it puts Democrats only 4 seats away from flipping the chamber.  The bad news is that the Democrats are making virtually no effort to pick up seats in a year when Republicans have more than twice as many seats up as Democrats.  Fortunately, Republicans don’t appear to be mounting much of a challenge to Democratic seats either, although they are at least contesting all seats.  There probably will not be pickups on either side.

    There are 11 Republicans up for re-election.  Eight of them are unopposed:

    TX-01 – Kevin Eltife (R-Tyler)

    TX-03 – Robert Nichols (R-Jacksonville)

    TX-07 – Dan Patrick (R-Houston)

    TX-08 – Florence Shapiro (R-Plano)

    TX-12 – Jane Nelson (R-Flower Mound)

    TX-17 – Joan Huffman (R-Southside Place)

    TX-22 – Kip Averitt (R-Waco)

    TX-25 – Jeff Wentworth (R-San Antonio)

    Huffman is particularly tragic, as Obama took 47% of the vote in her district, and she was just elected by 12% in a 2008 special election.

    The other three Republicans have classic “some dude” challengers:

    TX-02 – Bob Duell (R-Greenville) will face insurance agent Kathleen Shaw in a 60-39 McCain district.

    TX-05 – Steve Ogden (R-Bryan) will face substitute teacher Stephen Wyman, whom he defeated by 26% in 2006.

    TX-18 – Glenn Hegar (R-Katy) will face retired teacher Pat Olney in a 63-36 McCain district.

    I know Texas is tough, but we have to be able to do better than this.

    Republicans, by contrast, are contesting all five Democratic seats that are up, but their challenges fortunately don’t look too serious either:

    TX-13 – Rodney Ellis (D-Houston) will face Mike “Some Dude” Mauldin in an 80-20 Obama district.

    TX-14 – Kirk Watson (D-Austin) will face attorney/psychologist Mary Lou “What’s Her Face?” Serafine in a 64-34 Obama district.

    TX-15 – Veteran incumbent John Whitmire (D-Houston) will face self-employed salesman Bill “Who Dat?” Walker in a 61-38 Obama district.

    TX-19 – In the only race that looks anywhere near interesting, Carlos Uresti (D-El Paso) will face real estate broker and 2006 candidate Dick Bowen, who held Uresti to 59% of the vote back then.  The Southwest Texas district is 70% Hispanic and went for Obama 55-45.

    TX-29 – Incumbent Eliot Shapleigh (D-El Paso) is retiring.  Democrat Jose Rodriguez is a substantial favorite over professor and frequent candidate Dan Chavez in this El Paso district that went for Obama 65-34.

    SC-05: Spratt Files for Re-Election

    Despite his office’s repeated assurances that he’s planning on seeking another term, longtime Democratic Rep. John Spratt hasn’t quite been able to shake off GOP-fueled retirement speculation. It looks like we can now officially close the book on that one:

    Rep. John Spratt (D) filed to run for re-election this afternoon, according to an official at the SC Dem Party, taking one name off the list of potential Dem retirees.

    Spratt has been gearing up for a re-election bid for months, but a sub-par 4th Q fundraising haul fueled rumors that he might retire. He put an end to that talk with today’s filing, which came one day before the state’s deadline.

    Spratt will face a tough fight against state Sen. Mick Mulvaney, whom Spratt led by 46-39 in a January poll by Public Policy Polling.

    Racetracker Wiki: SC-05

    Regional Alignment, Part 5: The Eastern Great Lakes

    The Eastern Great Lakes region consists of Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio.  This region’s growth has been stagnant over the last 50 years.  In 1960, this region had 52 congressional districts:  today, this region has only 42 congressional districts.  By 2012, there might be as few as 39 congressional districts.

    US House Representation Realignment

    After the 1960 general election, the Democrats had approximately 60% of all house seats (and 64 of the 100 senate seats).  I have inserted below the results of certain general elections.

    1960:  20(D), 32(R)

    1964:  28(D), 26(R)

    1966:  17(D), 37(R)

    1972:  18(D), 36(R)

    1974:  29(D), 24(R)

    1980:  28(D), 25(R)

    1982:  27(D), 22(R)

    1990:  30(D), 19(R)

    1992:  27(D), 22(R)

    1994:  19(D), 26(R)

    1996:  22(D), 23(R)

    2000:  21(D), 24(R)

    2002:  15(D), 27(R)

    2004:  14(D), 28(R)

    2006:  18(D), 24(R)

    2008:  23(D), 19(R)

    50 years ago, this region was somewhat of a reliable Republican area (Nixon won Ohio and Indiana, while Kennedy won Michigan).  The Kennedy/LBJ administrations made significant strides, and by 1964, the Democrats had a slim majority.  The Republicans came back with vengence, overtaking 11 congressional districts in 1966.  As late as 1972, the Republicans had a 2 to 1 advantage.  Watergate assisted the Dems in overtaking 11 seats in the 1974 elections.  I was very surprised when I realized that the Reagan revolution didn’t help the Republicans much, allowing the Democrats a sizable advantage as late as 1990.  In the early 1990’s, this area jumped back to the Republicans, and by 2004, the Republicans once again had a 2 to 1 advantage (probably some of this advantaged relates to Gerrymandering).  In the last 2 election cycles, the Democrats picked up 9 Congressional Seats.

    US Senate Representation Realignment

    1960:  5(D), 1(R)

    1964:  6(D), 0(R)

    1966:  5(D), 1(R)

    1972:  3(D), 3(R)

    1974:  4(D), 2(R)

    1980:  4(D), 2(R)

    1982:  4(D), 2(R)

    1990:  4(D), 2(R)

    1992:  4(D), 2(R)

    1994:  2(D), 4(R)

    1996:  2(D), 4(R)

    2000:  3(D), 3(R)

    2002:  3(D), 3(R)

    2004:  3(D), 3(R)

    2006:  4(D), 2(R)

    2008:  4(D), 2(R)

    Over the past 50 years, the Democrats had usually held a majority of this regions Senate seats.  It wasn’t until 1994, during the Contract With (On) America did the Republicans gain a majority.  The Democrats regained a majority with the 1998 victory for Bayh and the 2006 victory for Brown.


    This region has historically been in play for both the Democrats and the Republicans.  Due to fact that the Republican state parties have historically had a slight advantage, Gerrymandering is probably the norm rather than the exception, assisting the Republicans with their House representation (I’m personally referring to the 2002 Gerrymandering).  The 2010 election year has an Indiana and an Ohio Senate seat in play, and if history is correct, the Democrats and Republicans will probably both win 1 seat each.  In the House, the Democrats will probably have their hands full in defending a half of a dozen seats.  This area will probably lose 3 more seats in 2012 (2 in Ohio, 1 in Michigan), and as a result the need for effective Gerrymandering is crucial.  Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio is unique in the fact that the Democrats control the state Houses in each state while the Republicans control the state Senate.  There are 2 tough Governor’s races in Ohio and Michigan, which will give us some insight on how this area might be represented in the next decade.  I personally believe that the Democrats will still control this region after the 2010 election, but 2012?  Who knows….

    SSP Daily Digest: 3/29

    Only one digest a day this week. Too much candy is bad for you!

  • FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek will qualify for the ballot today in an apparently unprecedented manner. Rather than pay the $10,000 filing fee, he plans to submit 130,000 signatures from across the state. (You need 112,500, so he has some wiggle room.) While this obviously was a vastly more expensive undertaking, Meek’s earned a bunch of free media as a result, and has also padded out his campaign database. On the GOP side, Marco Rubio and Charlie Crist squared off in their first debate yesterday. The Politico also has a take on the proceedings.
  • MA-Sen: Rachel Maddow took out a full-page ad in the Boston Globe to deny rumors that she had any interest in running against Sen. Scott Brown in 2012. But actually, it’s much better than that – click the link and check out her letter for yourself. She lands some good blows on Brown, who had sent out a letter trying to raise money off the oogedy-boogedy threat of a Maddow run. Says Maddow: “It’s standard now for conservatives to invent scary fake threats to run against.” Like her.
  • UT-Sen: Republican Gov. Gary Herbert says he won’t take sides in the primary battle against his fellow GOPer, Sen. Bob Bennett. Given that incumbents usually stick together, this seems worrying for Bennett – a guy who already has a long list of worries.
  • AL-05: Local conservative activist Hugh McInnish is seeking to bar Rep. Parker Griffith from the GOP ballot, calling him an “impostor.” A petition he filed with local party leaders was shot down in January, but he’s going to try to make his case to the state party next week.
  • CT-05: Former Hill aide Justin Bernier is complaining about how the House Conservatives Fund (a PAC run by Rep. Patrick McHenry) decided to endorse state Sen. Sam Caligiuri rather than himself. The HCF asked Bernier to fill out a survey and return it to one Evan Kozlow. The problem? Kozlow does work for the HCF, and he’s also Caligiuri’s general consultant.
  • MN-06: Dems in MN’s 6th CD have given their endorsement to state Sen. Tarryl Clark. Clark will still have to face off against Maureen Reed (formerly a member of the Independence Party) in an August primary.
  • NY-29: Upstate Dems are staying tight-lipped about their pick for a nominee in the special election to fill ex-Rep. Eric Massa’s seat. They are meeting today to interview six candidates, one of whom is Assemblyman David Koon. The other names are still unknown, though Paterson aide Mary Wilmot may be among them.
  • PA-10: A group called Catholics United, which pushed Chris Carney to support the healthcare reform bill, is now running an ad (on FOX News!) to thank him for his “yes” vote. No word on the size of the buy, but obviously it’s a cable dealie, so probably not big.
  • WA-03: Nurse and Democrat Maria Rodriguez-Salazar is dropping out of the race to succeed the retiring Rep. Brian Baird. This cuts the Dem field down to Denny Heck, Craig Pridemore, and Cheryl Crist.
  • IL-Lt. Gov: Illinois Democrats went the ultimate outsider route to pick a replacement Lt. Gov. candidate, choosing… the child of a former senator. Uh, I’m sure Sheila Simon, the daughter of the late Sen. Paul Simon, is a great person. But considering the lengths IL Dems went to try to open up this process and look like they weren’t just conducting another backroom deal (you could even apply online!), this almost seems like an absurd result. Not to mention the fact that this isn’t exactly the kind of year where a gubernatorial candidate wants to remind voters of any ties to DC. Seriously strange move here.
  • DSCC: Joe Biden just did a Dallas fundraiser for the DSCC, which took in $250,000. He also did a DNC fundraiser the same day. No word on how much that netted, though.
  • AZ-Sen: Prepare for the possibility of McCain getting Teabagged

    When Governor Charlie Crist first entered the Florida Senate race he was the definite favorite to win the Senate race. However over the next several months Republicans turned against him because we wasn’t conservative enough. Now conservative challenger Rubio is beating Crist badly in the polls, and it looks impossible for him to win the nomination.

    The same thing can happen to McCain. Sure, he’s beating Hayworth in the primary polls right now. But do you really think he will still be ahead on primary election day? I think the chance of Hayworth beating McCain in the primary is 50%.

    Now here’s the worst case scenario that we want to avoid: Hayworth beats McCain in the primary and then wins the general because the Dems didn’t put forward a strong candidate.

    The strongest Senate candidates are usually sitting Congressmen. Arizona has 5 Democratic Congressmen. I nominate Ed Pastor. The 06-08 Democrats: Giffords, Mitchell and Kilpatrick, need to hold down their marginal House seats, and with bright careers ahead they might not want to take the risk. That leaves Pastor and Grijalva. From what I have read, Pastor is more well-liked and highly-regarded by the public. Also being from Pheonix instead of outstate should help him, in a state where the largest city is more conservative than the other parts. Also, it’s not fair, but Ed Pastor’s name sounds anglo enough to not be threatening to most white voters.

    Ed Pastor, is 7 years younger than John McCain. He’s been a Congressman for 20 years. He can beat Hayworth. He just needs to run a few commercials that go something like “J.D. Hayworth is a crazy extremist who supports {insert wacky policy}. I proudly represented Arizona in Congress for 20 years and now if you elect me as your Senator I promise to fight for {something popular in Arizona and somewhat liberal}”. Then we get a reliably liberal vote from Arizona for the next 6 years. (Thanks teabaggers!)

    Does he want to take the risk? If you were in this situation would you take the risk? If you take the bet then there’s a 50% chace McCain wins the primary and you are forced to retire at 67, after a 20 year career in the House. Your successor will be a reliable liberal vote. You might even be able to run for one of the new House seats after redistricting in 2012. And there’s a 50% chance Hayworth wins the primary and you become a Senator. Now your liberal vote will be in the Senate, where it’s really needed.

    But maybe he doesn’t want to commute to Washington until he’s 73.

    He would have to make a decision pretty soon. Allow enough time to see if Hayworth gains momentum in the Republican primary (he already is), but enter early enough to clear the Democratic field. The filing deadline is May 26.

    A strong Democrat can beat a teabagger or club-for-growther who beats an incumbent Republican in the primary, even in a right-leaning state or district. Just ask Bill Owens and Frank Kratovil. Think of how sweet it will be if teabaggers make Kendrick Meek a Senator from Florida, and Ed Pastor a Senator from Arizona.

    PS. If there is a poll out there that I don’t know about showing JD. Hayworth beating Ed Pastor in a hypothetical matchup, don’t take it seriously, because at this point it would only reflect name recognition. It would be similar to a generic D vs generic R poll, and on Election Day Hayworth will do much worse than a generic R.

    NY: Another non-VRA, non-biased redistrict

    So NY will lose one seat.  Let’s see how this plays out.

    Long Island:


    1st: Tim Bishop: 53-47 Obama. blue

    Bishop’s district improves about one point for the Dems, but he’s relatively safe either way, although losing in a wave year is possible.  The way to create this district was a no-brainer, and it doesn’t change too much.  Most of Smithtown is replaced by most of Islip.  84% White.  

    2nd: Steve Israel: 53-47 Obama. green

    Israel’s district gets 3 points redder, with the loss of Islip and Plainview and the gain of Babylon.  It’s still a swing district either way, although it is usually forgotten that Israel’s seat would be competitive in an open race, with the right candidate.  Either way, he’s still safe.  73% White, 13% Hispanic.

    3rd: Peter King-R or Carolyn McCarthy-D: 56-44 Obama. red

    The Long Island districts are now combined, with King’s nine points bluer than before and McCarthy’s three redder. I’d favor King this year and McCarthy in 2012, when the redistricting would kick in.  Since neither were competitive districts before, and now it’s a swing district, there is no overall change, but the map looks less convoluted, and the one district that needed to be eliminated is.  Nassau Co. also looks very nice with only slightly more than 2 districts in it.  70% White, 14% Black, 12% Hispanic.

    4th: Gary Ackerman: 52-48 Obama. purple.

    Ackerman’s district shifts twelve points to the right, so its now R + .5, as it was Safe Dem before.  Honestly, he might retire, which would create a problem for Dems.  All of Queens is taken out of his district in favor of more of Long Island, including Huntington in the East, but there are now 4 Long Island districts instead of 4.5. 81% White.


    5th:  No Incumbent Representative: 68-31 Obama. yellow

    At some point, an Asian representative is very possible here, with 41% White, 25% Asian, 16% Black, and 14% Hispanic.  However, it’s Weiner’s until he leaves, and it’s a 13 point leftward shift, which makes him very happy.

    6th: Greg Meeks: 83-17 Obama. greenish-blue.

    For most representatives, a district getting six points redder is a problem.  For Meeks, it’s no big deal.  41% Black, 22% White, 20% Hispanic.

    7th: Joe Crowley: 70-29 Obama. gray.

    Crowley (who I must admit I thought was Black until I looked him up) is safe here, although this is a nine point red shift.  However, I’d assume that this makes some other district further on safer, although perhaps not.  38% Hispanic, 35% White, 18% Asian.

    8th: Nydia Velasquez: 86-13 Obama. periwinkle.

    As if Velasquez would ever have any trouble.  Her district is no longer VRA, which makes it much more aesthetically pleasing, but it has the exact same PVI.  35% Hispanic, 28% White, 23% Black.


    9th: Ed Towns: 93-7 Obama.  bright blue.

    Again, no trouble here, it actually shifts two pints leftward.  68% Black, 16% Hispanic, 10% White.  

    10th: Yvette Clarke: 80-20 Obama.  pink.

    Clarke shifts ELEVEN points red, but it’s no big deal at all.  43% White, 33% Black, 14% Hispanic.

    11th: Mike McMahon: 51-49 McCain.  green.

    All of Staten Island is included, although you can’t see it on the map.  This is also the exact same PVI as before; Staten Island has always been the most Republican borough, at least in recent times.  70% White, 12% Hispanic.


    12th: Jerry Nadler: 63-36 Obama. blue.

    This contains many of Weiner’s Orthodox Jewish neighborhoods, making it a an eleven point shift for Nadler, but he’s fine.  He’s also Jewish, which shouldn’t hurt.  51% White, 24% Asian, 19% Hispanic.  This is the last of the 12 districts that are on Long Island, whether the region or the 2 boroughs located there.

    13th: Carolyn Maloney: 81-18 Obama.  peach.

    The district shifted three points left.  That’s about all that is interesting about this very liberal district on Manhattan Island.  71% White, 12% Hispanic.

    14th: (Hopefully not the ridiculously corrupt) Charlie Rangel: 91-8 Obama. puke color.

    A fitting color for Rangel, and his district fits him, too.  Two points more red, 37% Hispanic, 29% Black, 28% White.

    Bronx/NYC Suburbs:


    15th: Jose Serrano: 90-10 Obama.  orange.

    Formerly the bluest district in the nation.  While this may not be true with the 5 point red shift, Serrano is safe, and the district is 58% Hispanic, 23% Black, and 13% White.

    16th: No Incumbent Representative: 87-13. green.

    One of the safest open seats possible for the Democrats, replacing Eliot Engel’s seat (I’m assuming he will retire).  47% Hispanic, 30% Black, and 17% White.

    17th: Nita Lowey: 69-31 Obama. purple.

    Her seat gets seven points more liberal, but she was safe either way.  With Yonkers, Rye, and a piece of the Bronx, along with other Westchester suburbs, it’s diverse and liberal.  51% White, 24% Black, 18% Hispanic.  And now the fun begins, with actual changes to members’ districts.

    NYC Exurbs:


    18th: John Hall: 56-43 Obama. yellow.

    Staying East of the Hudson river gets Hall an extra five points in the Dem direction, although this is still a swing district with the right Republican candidate, someone like Nan Hayworth, a moderate whom he is facing right now, this year.  White Plains and Poughkeepsie are the major cities/towns.  78% White.

    19th: No Incumbent Representative: 52-47 Obama. green.

    This should be a fun fight.  Nearly mirroring the national split of 53-46 last year, this district is swing suburbia, containing Rockland and Orange counties.  I’ll assume this Orange County is named for a different reason than the ones in California and Florida.  Either way, this district is anyone’s.  75% White, 11% Hispanic.

    East Upstate:


    20th: Maurice Hinchey: 59-39 Obama. pink.

    Surprisingly liberal for the location it is in, due to the dominance of Albany within the district.  Hinchey’s district is completely reshaped but maintains the same PVI.  Much nicer looking now, I would say.  85% White.

    21st: Scott Murphy: 53-45 Obama.  maroon.

    Murphy is now two points safer, but his district is still swing.  However, he appears to be entrenching himself early, and so he’ll be fine by the time 2012 rolls around.  Saratoga Springs, Troy, and Schenectady are all in this district.  An astonishing, very New England-ish 92% White.

    22nd: Paul Tonko or Bill Owens: 51-47 Obama. brown.

    One, or possibly both of these Democrats, have to go.  Tonko is more liberal and so would likely lose the primary, leaving it to Owens, although he is new.  This district would be only one point redder than his old one. It contains Watertown and many mountainous, rural, moderate areas.  93% White.

    23rd: Mike Arcuri: 50-48 Obama.  light blue.

    Arcuri is likely toast in 2010, and so a Freshman Republican will be tested with some new turf in 2012.  However, this district does lean Republican, one point more so than Arcuri’s old district.  It contains Binghamton, Rome, and Utica, and is 92% White.

    24th: Dan Maffei: 59-40 Obama. purple.

    Syracuse and Ithaca make Maffei safe.  The rest of the district makes it respectable and only 3 points more liberal than Maffei’s old turf.  86% White.  Maffei’s safety makes it D + 0.5 overall.

    West Upstate:


    25th: No Incumbent Representative: 54-45 McCain.  rose.

    I believe a Republican will win it.  The question is who?  94% White.  This is Massa’s old district.  

    26th: Louise Slaughter: 59-40 Obama. gray.

    The inventor of the Slaughter Rule is still safe here in Rochester, but ten points less safe, not a very big deal for her.  77% White, 13% Black.  No longer a gerrymander.

    27th: Chris Lee: 49-49 McCain. green.

    McCain carried this by 302 votes, so I believe Lee can as well. 92% White in these Buffalo Suburbs, along with Niagara Falls.

    28th: Brian Higgins: 61-38 Obama. pink.

    Somehow, over time, as Buffalo has gotten more moderate, Higgins’ district became a swing district.  Well, no more; it’s now safe Dem, meaning we’re at D + 1 overall for NY Redistricting in a fair manner.  This contains Buffalo and some surrounding southern and eastern areas.  Higgins is seven points safer.  77% White, 16% Black.

    So there you go: in any given year, I predict 22-6 Dem edge, although the fact that there are so many Democrats becoming entrenched will help.

    McCarthy and King are forced into the same district, and Engel retires, otherwise the delegation could remain the exact same, provided a Republican wins the NY-29 Election.  So there you go.  

    Help a Howard Dean Democrat Win Scott Brown’s Seat

    Beltway political pundits are pointing to Scott Brown’s recent U.S. Senate victory in Massachusetts as a sign that Republicans nationwide should be excited about their prospects in November.

    You know what would be a terrific rebuke to that false logic: a progressive Democrat winning the historically Republican state senate seat that Scott Brown gave up upon his election to the U.S. Senate.  Turning the Scott Brown seat from dark red to bright, progressive blue would make a resounding statement with these political pundits and be a big victory for progressive change.

    Dr. Peter Smulowitz is that progressive Democrat!

    Dr. Smulowitz is a health care expert and progressive Democrat, very much in the proud, progressive tradition of Dr. Howard Dean.  He will bring to Massachusetts government innovative ideas on reducing health care costs while focusing on primary and preventative care – ideas that can be duplicated in states across America.  Dr. Smulowitz will fight for economic growth and job creation, particularly by easing the tax burden on small businesses and promoting investment in green industries.  He will fight to make government more transparent and responsive to its citizens.  And he will always fight for civil rights and privacy rights, including protecting marriage equality for same-sex couples and reproductive rights for women.

    The primary in the special election to fill Brown’s old state senate seat is in just a few weeks, on Tuesday, April 13.  Dr. Smulowitz needs your help in the Democratic primary to make sure that a Howard Dean progressive can succeed the conservative Scott Brown.  Dr. Smulowitz has a primary challenger, a hack in the state legislature who was formerly a member of the state House leadership under two consecutive House Speakers, Tom Finneran and Sal DiMasi, who both eventually became convicted felons and who both represent what is wrong with Massachusetts state government.  This hack’s ties to the convicted felon former Speakers make her completely unelectable in a general election.

    On the other hand, Dr. Smulowitz can help champion progressive change by winning conservative Republican Scott Brown’s old State Senate seat.  But we need your help in the progressive blogosphere!

    Please join our fight to help a progressive Democrat, rather than an establishment hack, win the primary and have the opportunity to turn the Scott Brown seat blue.  Please make a contribution today via ActBlue!

    The pundit class thinks that Senator Ted Kennedy’s seat going to Scott Brown is a big, bad omen of what is to come for Democrats in November.  Electing a Howard Dean Democrat, Dr. Peter Smulowitz, to succeed Scott Brown would turn that omen on its ear and send a poweful message of its own.  Please join our fight!

    On the web:

    *Dr. Peter Smulowitz for State Senate campaign website

    *Contribute to Dr. Smulowitz’s campaign via ActBlue

    *Become a fan of Dr. Smulowitz on Facebook

    *Follow Dr. Smulowitz on Twitter