So NY will lose one seat. Let’s see how this plays out.
1st: Tim Bishop: 53-47 Obama. blue
Bishop’s district improves about one point for the Dems, but he’s relatively safe either way, although losing in a wave year is possible. The way to create this district was a no-brainer, and it doesn’t change too much. Most of Smithtown is replaced by most of Islip. 84% White.
2nd: Steve Israel: 53-47 Obama. green
Israel’s district gets 3 points redder, with the loss of Islip and Plainview and the gain of Babylon. It’s still a swing district either way, although it is usually forgotten that Israel’s seat would be competitive in an open race, with the right candidate. Either way, he’s still safe. 73% White, 13% Hispanic.
3rd: Peter King-R or Carolyn McCarthy-D: 56-44 Obama. red
The Long Island districts are now combined, with King’s nine points bluer than before and McCarthy’s three redder. I’d favor King this year and McCarthy in 2012, when the redistricting would kick in. Since neither were competitive districts before, and now it’s a swing district, there is no overall change, but the map looks less convoluted, and the one district that needed to be eliminated is. Nassau Co. also looks very nice with only slightly more than 2 districts in it. 70% White, 14% Black, 12% Hispanic.
4th: Gary Ackerman: 52-48 Obama. purple.
Ackerman’s district shifts twelve points to the right, so its now R + .5, as it was Safe Dem before. Honestly, he might retire, which would create a problem for Dems. All of Queens is taken out of his district in favor of more of Long Island, including Huntington in the East, but there are now 4 Long Island districts instead of 4.5. 81% White.
5th: No Incumbent Representative: 68-31 Obama. yellow
At some point, an Asian representative is very possible here, with 41% White, 25% Asian, 16% Black, and 14% Hispanic. However, it’s Weiner’s until he leaves, and it’s a 13 point leftward shift, which makes him very happy.
6th: Greg Meeks: 83-17 Obama. greenish-blue.
For most representatives, a district getting six points redder is a problem. For Meeks, it’s no big deal. 41% Black, 22% White, 20% Hispanic.
7th: Joe Crowley: 70-29 Obama. gray.
Crowley (who I must admit I thought was Black until I looked him up) is safe here, although this is a nine point red shift. However, I’d assume that this makes some other district further on safer, although perhaps not. 38% Hispanic, 35% White, 18% Asian.
8th: Nydia Velasquez: 86-13 Obama. periwinkle.
As if Velasquez would ever have any trouble. Her district is no longer VRA, which makes it much more aesthetically pleasing, but it has the exact same PVI. 35% Hispanic, 28% White, 23% Black.
9th: Ed Towns: 93-7 Obama. bright blue.
Again, no trouble here, it actually shifts two pints leftward. 68% Black, 16% Hispanic, 10% White.
10th: Yvette Clarke: 80-20 Obama. pink.
Clarke shifts ELEVEN points red, but it’s no big deal at all. 43% White, 33% Black, 14% Hispanic.
11th: Mike McMahon: 51-49 McCain. green.
All of Staten Island is included, although you can’t see it on the map. This is also the exact same PVI as before; Staten Island has always been the most Republican borough, at least in recent times. 70% White, 12% Hispanic.
12th: Jerry Nadler: 63-36 Obama. blue.
This contains many of Weiner’s Orthodox Jewish neighborhoods, making it a an eleven point shift for Nadler, but he’s fine. He’s also Jewish, which shouldn’t hurt. 51% White, 24% Asian, 19% Hispanic. This is the last of the 12 districts that are on Long Island, whether the region or the 2 boroughs located there.
13th: Carolyn Maloney: 81-18 Obama. peach.
The district shifted three points left. That’s about all that is interesting about this very liberal district on Manhattan Island. 71% White, 12% Hispanic.
14th: (Hopefully not the ridiculously corrupt) Charlie Rangel: 91-8 Obama. puke color.
A fitting color for Rangel, and his district fits him, too. Two points more red, 37% Hispanic, 29% Black, 28% White.
15th: Jose Serrano: 90-10 Obama. orange.
Formerly the bluest district in the nation. While this may not be true with the 5 point red shift, Serrano is safe, and the district is 58% Hispanic, 23% Black, and 13% White.
16th: No Incumbent Representative: 87-13. green.
One of the safest open seats possible for the Democrats, replacing Eliot Engel’s seat (I’m assuming he will retire). 47% Hispanic, 30% Black, and 17% White.
17th: Nita Lowey: 69-31 Obama. purple.
Her seat gets seven points more liberal, but she was safe either way. With Yonkers, Rye, and a piece of the Bronx, along with other Westchester suburbs, it’s diverse and liberal. 51% White, 24% Black, 18% Hispanic. And now the fun begins, with actual changes to members’ districts.
18th: John Hall: 56-43 Obama. yellow.
Staying East of the Hudson river gets Hall an extra five points in the Dem direction, although this is still a swing district with the right Republican candidate, someone like Nan Hayworth, a moderate whom he is facing right now, this year. White Plains and Poughkeepsie are the major cities/towns. 78% White.
19th: No Incumbent Representative: 52-47 Obama. green.
This should be a fun fight. Nearly mirroring the national split of 53-46 last year, this district is swing suburbia, containing Rockland and Orange counties. I’ll assume this Orange County is named for a different reason than the ones in California and Florida. Either way, this district is anyone’s. 75% White, 11% Hispanic.
20th: Maurice Hinchey: 59-39 Obama. pink.
Surprisingly liberal for the location it is in, due to the dominance of Albany within the district. Hinchey’s district is completely reshaped but maintains the same PVI. Much nicer looking now, I would say. 85% White.
21st: Scott Murphy: 53-45 Obama. maroon.
Murphy is now two points safer, but his district is still swing. However, he appears to be entrenching himself early, and so he’ll be fine by the time 2012 rolls around. Saratoga Springs, Troy, and Schenectady are all in this district. An astonishing, very New England-ish 92% White.
22nd: Paul Tonko or Bill Owens: 51-47 Obama. brown.
One, or possibly both of these Democrats, have to go. Tonko is more liberal and so would likely lose the primary, leaving it to Owens, although he is new. This district would be only one point redder than his old one. It contains Watertown and many mountainous, rural, moderate areas. 93% White.
23rd: Mike Arcuri: 50-48 Obama. light blue.
Arcuri is likely toast in 2010, and so a Freshman Republican will be tested with some new turf in 2012. However, this district does lean Republican, one point more so than Arcuri’s old district. It contains Binghamton, Rome, and Utica, and is 92% White.
24th: Dan Maffei: 59-40 Obama. purple.
Syracuse and Ithaca make Maffei safe. The rest of the district makes it respectable and only 3 points more liberal than Maffei’s old turf. 86% White. Maffei’s safety makes it D + 0.5 overall.
25th: No Incumbent Representative: 54-45 McCain. rose.
I believe a Republican will win it. The question is who? 94% White. This is Massa’s old district.
26th: Louise Slaughter: 59-40 Obama. gray.
The inventor of the Slaughter Rule is still safe here in Rochester, but ten points less safe, not a very big deal for her. 77% White, 13% Black. No longer a gerrymander.
27th: Chris Lee: 49-49 McCain. green.
McCain carried this by 302 votes, so I believe Lee can as well. 92% White in these Buffalo Suburbs, along with Niagara Falls.
28th: Brian Higgins: 61-38 Obama. pink.
Somehow, over time, as Buffalo has gotten more moderate, Higgins’ district became a swing district. Well, no more; it’s now safe Dem, meaning we’re at D + 1 overall for NY Redistricting in a fair manner. This contains Buffalo and some surrounding southern and eastern areas. Higgins is seven points safer. 77% White, 16% Black.
So there you go: in any given year, I predict 22-6 Dem edge, although the fact that there are so many Democrats becoming entrenched will help.
McCarthy and King are forced into the same district, and Engel retires, otherwise the delegation could remain the exact same, provided a Republican wins the NY-29 Election. So there you go.