Month: September 2010

Joe Garcia’s campaign sent me a “memo” of the results of a recent survey.  Short story is without prompting, Garcia was up by 4; when voters were told positive things about each candidate, Garcia ws up by 7; when voters were told negative things about each candidate, Garcia was up by 13.  More details below.

First, the survey was taken by The Benenson Strategy Group.  400 interviews of likely general election voters from August 26-­29. M/E is ±4.90%.

If the November election for Congress were held today and the candidates were __, for whom would you vote?

Garcia leads 40-36.

After hearing positive messages about both candidates (I am always a little suspicious of this)

Garcia leads 48-41

After hearing negative messages about both candidates (I am always a little suspicious of this)

Garcia leads 43-30.

This is a republican-held seat and one of the few we have a good chance to take.  It is also good news as it is a PVI of R+5. Cook rates it as “lean-R.”  First Read rates it #46 in liklihood of a take-over (from R to D).  Rothenberg rates it “lean-R.”  

Something else.  Although all of the commentators keep seeing complete disaster for the Dems (Sabato was real negative today), surveys like this (and a recent one of Shea-Porter leading in NH) make things look less dismal to me.  I still have hope.  

Step right up and get your Senate predictions!

Overall, I expect things to level out where they are now nationally, or perhaps tighten just a hair in favor of the Dems due to better resources and saner candidates.  I have six seats flipping to the Republicans, with none flipping to the Democrats.

1. North Dakota – Hoeven (R) 67, Potter (D) 31 – Even Harry Potter couldn’t pull this off.

2. Arkansas – Boozman (R) 57, Lincoln (D) 40 – This was gone anyway, but divisive primary didn’t help.

3. Indiana – Coats (R) 54, Ellsworth (D) 44 – Thanks Evan.  Nice goin’ dude.

4. Delaware – Castle (R) 54, Coons (D) 45 – On September 14, we are all part of the Tea Party Express.

5. Pennsylvania – Toomey (R) 50, Sestak (D) 47 – Should tighten but too deep a hole for Sestak.

6. Colorado – Buck (R) 49, Bennet (D) 47 – Holding out hope on this one, but I’ve had it flipping all along.

7. Florida – Rubio (R) 40, Crist (I) 37, Meek (D) 20 – Increase in Meek strength may ruin Crist’s chances.

8. Illinois – Giannoulias (D) 48, Kirk (R) 45 – Logical that Illinois will pick detested Dem over detested GOPer.

9. Nevada – Reid (D) 48, Angle (R) 44 – None of the Above runs up the score in this stinker.

10. Washington – Murray (D) 52, Rossi (R) 48 – Primary result made me feel better about Murray.

11. California – Boxer (D) 49, Fiorina (R) 44 – Can’t see Fiorina making the sale to blue electorate.

12. Wisconsin – Feingold (D) 52, Johnson (R) 47 – Johnson looking more like a yahoo every day.  

13. Kentucky – Paul (R) 52, Conway (D) 47 – State may be too red to beat even unconventional Paul.

14. Ohio – Portman (R) 52, Fisher (D) 46 – Dem prospects in Ohio, like many residents, headed south.

15. Missouri – Blunt (R) 52, Carnahan (D) 46 – Really bad environment here for Dems.

16. Louisiana – Vitter (R) 51, Melancon (D) 42 – Third party candidates steal votes from Vitter.

17. Connecticut – Blumenthal (D) 53, McMahon (R) 44 – McMahon spending keeps it reasonable.

18. North Carolina – Burr (R) 53, Marshall (D) 44 – Marshall lack of resources prevents closer race.

19. New Hampshire – Ayotte (R) 53, Hodes (D) 43 – This one hasn’t looked competitive for awhile.

20. Alaska – Miller (R) 53, McAdams (D) 43 –  Relatively strong Obama approval in AK perplexing.

21. West Virginia – Manchin (D) 56, Raese (R) 41 – Cannot believe Gov with 70% approval in trouble.

22. Georgia – Isakson (R) 58, Thurmond (D) 40 – Decent recruit in Thurmond loses due to environment.

23. Iowa – Grassley (R) 59, Conlin (D) 40 – Another good recruit bites the dust due to bad environment.

24. New York (B) – Gillibrand (D) 60, DioGuardi (R) 39 – New York looks rock solid statewide.

25. Arizona – McCain (R) 59, Glassman (D) 37 – Primary damages McCain only a little.

26. Oregon – Wyden (D) 60, Huffman (R) 35 – Wyden may have been vulnerable if targeted.

27. Maryland – Mikulski (D) 63, Wargotz (R) 34 – No trouble for Mikulski in deep blue Maryland.

28. Alabama – Shelby (R) 66, Barnes (D) 34 – Shelby has incredible warchest, won’t need to use it.

29. Kansas – Moran (R) 65, Johnston (D) 32 – Blowout in open seat race.

30. Oklahoma – Coburn (R) 65, Rogers (D) 31 – Could be even worse.

31. Vermont – Leahy (D) 65, Britton (R) 31 – Non-serious challenge for entrenched Leahy.

32. New York (A) – Shumer (D) 67, Townsend (R) 32 – Big sweep across the top of NY ticket.

33. Utah – Lee (R) 69, Granato (D) 29 – Utah gets its first Teabagger Senator.

34. Hawaii – Inouye (D) 69, Cavasso (R) 27 – Inouye an institution in Hawaii.

35. Idaho – Crapo (R) 71, Sullivan (D) 27 – Crapo breaks 70% against unfunded candidate.

36. South Carolina – Demint (R) 69, Greene (D) 23 – Could anyone be less deserving of this political gift?

37. South Dakota – Thune (R) 100, Nobody (D) 0 – Really, we couldn’t get anybody?

Public Policy Polling (8/27-29, likely voters, 6/26-27 in parens):

Lee Fisher (D): 38 (40)

Rob Portman (R): 45 (38)

Undecided: 18 (22)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Since Ted Strickland and Lee Fisher have tended to move up and down in concert with each other in polling, it was a pretty foregone conclusion, based on yesterday’s PPP OH-Gov numbers (and also more generically on PPP’s switch to a likely voter model, and that that generates a sample that went 48-45 for John McCain in 2008), that things would have gotten worse for Fisher. They have: his 2-point lead has turned into a 7-point deficit. Fisher’s favorables are now negative at 24/32, while Portman is at 29/28.

A lot of Fisher’s problem is that many Dems (21%) are still undecided, and assuming they break his direction, that should push his numbers up. But that still isn’t enough to push him back into the lead, based on Portman’s 43-30 lead among independents.

SurveyUSA for WDBJ-TV Roanoke (8/31-9/1, likely voters,

Tom Perriello (D-inc): 35 (35)

Rob Hurt (R): 61 (58)

Jeff Clark (I): 2 (4)

Undecided: 2 (3)

(MoE: ±4%)

Brutal stuff. It’s worth mentioning that last time, we mentioned some issues with the crosstabs, including Hurt’s big support among younger voters. Those issues persist in this poll.

It’s worth mentioning that Perriello fared more favorably in the most recent American Action Forum poll, trailing Hurt by 43-49 — and that poll, conducted by a Republican firm, tested the top line match-up right after asking a question about the healthcare bill.

Could things really be this bad?

UPDATE: Dana has one more issue regarding the poll: a very optimistic voter turnout prediction.

Just watch this:

And this:

Holy shit.

UPDATE: In case any of you can’t watch video while you’re at work, Markos has the transcripts of the ABC 15 post-debate report. It’s a serious fucking doozie.

Behind the scenes here at SSP, I told my co-editors that our daily series of Alaska mega-posts was over now that Lisa Murkowski conceded the race to Joe Miller. But like Dave Wakeling and Ranking Roger once said, I Just Can’t Stop It!

No Endorsement: We previously noted that Lisa Murkowski walked off the stage on Tuesday night without endorsing Joe Miller — and, for the time being at least, that continues to be the case. The Miller campaign is trying to get a chorus of Kumbaya going, but Murkowski can only muster up a “No comment” when asked if she’ll endorse Jumbo Joe. Democrat Scott McAdams was quick to capitalize on the disunity, going on local TV just before Murkowski conceded to tell Alaskans that he’s “a lot closer” to Murkowski’s “centrist” politics than the radicalism of Joe Miller.

Joe Miller, Pension Killer: This is what I like about Joe Miller — he’s not shy about heaping on the crazy. From an interview with CNN’s John King:

The party has hit Miller on Social Security, accusing him of wanting to “phase out” the program, a charge the candidate addressed Wednesday. […]

Ultimately, Miller said, he favors transferring power “back to the states so that states can take up the mantle of those programs if they so desire.”

Asked by King whether it would be fair to say a person born tomorrow might grow up in an America without a federal social security program if Miller had his way, the candidate responded, “Absolutely.”

Now, Miller defenders will be quick to point out that he’s not arguing to take away “the contracts that we’ve made with our seniors”, but good luck disarming that live grenade that Miller just handed you.

Standing On His Own, For Us: I’m not sure if the DSCC’s silence on this race since Miller’s primary win is a deliberate strategy not to taint McAdams with the disgusting touch of Washington, D.C., or if the committee still hasn’t figured out what its strategy is for this race. That’s why I like this kind of attitude on display from Scott McAdams:

It remains to be seen whether McAdams will receive support from the Democratic National Committee or the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. McAdams says it doesn’t matter.

“The DSCC and the national Democratic Party doesn’t even know my name. And that’s fine by me,” he said. “I love the Alaskan Democratic Party, they’ve been behind me 100 percent, Sen. Mark Begich has been behind me 100 percent, and that’s just fine by me.” …

“I’m not sure exactly what their strategy’s going to be. I’m not sure what their plan is,” he said. “This is a small population state. We can raise enough money to win. Nobody knew who Joe Miller was on the 31st of May.”

The DSCC appears to still be locked in “evaluation mode”, and the Associated Press reports that they’re going into the field with a poll to determine if their investment would be worthwhile. For his part, McAdams is taking his campaign to the next level thanks in part to the generosity of Mark Begich:

Ten days ago, Scott McAdams had a volunteer treasurer and a few thousand dollars to help him pursue the Democratic nomination for U.S. senator in Alaska.

With the shocking upset victory by tea party darling Joe Miller over U.S. Sen. Lisa Murkowski for the Republican nomination, volunteers and money are flowing his way.

A pair of staffers from the office of U.S. Sen. Mark Begich, D-Alaska, are taking leave to assist the campaign. McAdams has hired a spokeswoman. […]

Wednesday evening, McAdams was listed among the top fundraisers on ActBlue.com, which helps Democrats set up fundraising campaigns for candidates, with $76,117 in donations. McAdams expects his campaign to have collected $100,000 by end of the week as Alaskans pitch in to help him defeat the Republican endorsed by former Gov. Sarah Palin.

“Things are ramping up,” McAdams said Wednesday in an interview at a picnic table in Anchorage’s Elderberry Park.

Indeed, Begich has been all over this action, sending out an email for McAdams in an effort to raise $250K in two weeks. (They’ve already made a dent in that figure.) Roll Call has more on the Democratic excitement on the ground:

“It’s night and day,” a Democratic source close to the campaign said about the feeling on the ground in the state since the primary. “People are excited. People are stunned.” …

“It is happening, and there’s a new surge of energy and excitement into Democratic headquarters out here,” Alaska Democratic Party spokeswoman Kay Brown said. “Scott’s a good guy, a real Alaskan, and I think he’s going to look good and compare favorably against Joe Miller.” …

The Democratic source said that McAdams could pick up Republican votes in places like the Aleutian Islands, which is home to the largest fishing port in the country and relies on significant federal funding – something some in the state believe could diminish with Miller in office.

“People are freaked out out here about this Joe Miller guy,” the source said.

Next on tap for McAdams: a $250-per-person fundraiser tonight at the home of state Sen. Hollis French. Happy to see French working it for Team Blue despite losing the gubernatorial primary to Ethan Berkowitz last week.

AR-Sen, AR-01: Bill Clinton is heading back home to Arkansas to do events for Blanche Lincoln (probably not a good use of resources) and Chad Causey (better use of resources). Incidentally, Politico notes that Causey’s primary opponent, Tim Wooldridge, still has yet to endorse him. Jeez.

DE-Sen: It’s official: The Tea Party Express has spooked Mike Castle into going up on the air before the primary, to a six-figure tune. In fact, the Hotline’s Jeremy Jacobs has an unusual level of detail on the nature of the buy, noting that “Castle has purchased $113K worth of airtime for Aug. 31 to Sept. 6 in the Salisbury, MD, media market,” as well as “$26K worth of time on cable in New Castle County and $42K on radio.”

NH-Sen: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is throwing down for a big buy against Paul Hodes. As the Hotline notes, the Chamber’s FEC filing says they’re spending $1 million, but apparently the buy is for less – a spokesbot will only say that it’s “sizable.” You can see their ad at the link.

AK-Gov: Republican Bill Walker, who held Gov. Sean Parnell to just 50% in the GOP primary while taking 33% himself, is talking to the Alaska Independence Party about filling their ballot line, since the AIP’s nominee, Don Wright, has withdrawn from the race. Remember that in 1994, Dem Tony Knowles very narrowly won the gubernatorial race because an AIP candidate split the right-wing vote, taking 13%.

FL-Gov: I’m not sure whether these are new names or not, but Alex Sink is trying to stick it to Rick Scott by putting out a list of ten Republican elected officials in central and south Florida who have endorsed her campaign. Speaking of Scott, he’s reportedly going to tap state Rep. Jennifer Carroll, an African American legislator from the Jacksonville area, to be his running mate.

NM-Gov: Local blog New Mexico FBIHOP has two new ads, one each from Republican Susana Martinez and Dem Diane Denish. NWOTSOTB in either case.

AZ-03: Dem Jon Hulburd is hitting noted d-bag Ben Quayle where it hurts: on Christian radio. Politico has the audio of the ad, which of course references TheDirty.com, but NWOTSOTB.

CA-47: Ya know, usually when we do an Obama Alert! or a Biden Alert! we’re at least a little bit excited at the prospect that the (V)POTUS is doing an event for some Dem or other. But once in a while, it just makes me nervous. This is one of those occasions. Joe Biden is headlining a fundraiser for Rep. Loretta Sanchez in DC on Sept. 15th. I’m thinking a rating change might be in order here soon.

MD-01: Dem Frank Kratovil is up with his first ad of the season. NWOTSOTB.

NJ-12: The so-called “Emergency Committee for Israel,” led by jerkass extraordinaire Michael Goldfarb and backed by lunatics like Bill Kristol and Gary Bauer, is now targeting Rep. Rush Holt with their latest bullshit. Holt, for his part, is fighting back, calling the ads “blatant lies” and trying to convince cable companies to pull them.

ND-AL: A break for Rep. Earl Pomeroy: The House’s Office of Congressional Ethics said earlier this week that they were dropping an investigation into Pomeroy’s fundraising practices.

NY-01: If anything saves Tim Bishop’s bacon, it might be the fact that the Republican primary has been a festering pit of raw sewage, with outraged attacks traded among Bishop’s GOP rivals daily – or more often. In fact, the three-way nature of the race seems to have tripled the likelihood of open warfare at any given moment – and it also makes things damn confusing at times. Anyhow, it looks like Chris Cox is hitting Randy Altschuler for failing to show up to a debate… but then the third dude, George Demos, also had a staffer show up at Altschuler’s offices and catch him on camera, right when the debate was supposed to start. Meanwhile, Cox also won a court ruling allowing him to fight Altschuler for the Conservative Party nomination, but he’ll have to run as a write-in.

NY-13: Another nasty New York primary also continues to get nastier. Local establishment fave Michael Allegretti keeps piling on attacks against Mike Grimm, the golden boy of national GOP figures like Rudy Giuliani and John McCain. Among other things, Allegretti is pointing out that Grimm has never voted in a single Republican primary in the 13th CD.

OH-17: Jim Traficant got beamed back on to the ballot yesterday, running as an independent. He’ll face Dem Rep. Tim Ryan and Republican Jim Graham, who has raised bupkes.

PA-15: PA2010 is reporting that Dem John Callahan is going up on the air with his first ad, perhaps as early as today. NWOTSOTB, and we also don’t have a link to the ad yet, but we’ll try to bring it to you once it’s public.

TX-23: Republican Quico Canseco is refusing to meet with the editorial board of the San Antonio Express-News, claiming they have an “inherent bias” in favor of Dem Rep. Ciro Rodriguez. Only problem: The paper endorsed the last two Republicans who ran against Ciro.

WI-07: Republican Sean Duffy is finally scrambling on to the air with a positive bio spot. Dem Julie Lassa was up with her first ad last week, and the DCCC made its first independent expenditure (anywhere in the nation) here earlier this week. NWOTSOTB, though CQ notes the ad will air “in the Wausau-Rhinelander, Duluth-Superior, Minneapolis-St. Paul and LaCrosse-Eau Claire markets”.

WV-03: Republican Spike Maynard is out with a new ad (watch it here) in which he says he wants to “stop the Obama-Rahall-Pelosi war on coal.” That a serious mouthful, dude. (James Hell sez: “He should add Rand Paul to the list!”) Anyhow, props to the Charleston Daily Mail for these details: “The ad is the first of two ads that will be released by Maynard’s campaign as part of a $100,000 ad buy in the Beckley-Bluefield and Charleston-Huntington TV markets.”

For Nick Rahall’s part, he’s apparently going to go on the radio with biographical spots to “familiarize folks with the congressman and his record.” Uh, the guy has been in office since before I was born. The paper also reports that Rahall “is expected to run TV ads starting in late September.” Can’t say I love that pace.

Cat Fud: Think Progress has carefully stacked up an entire pallet’s worth of cat fud tins in one of those lovely supermarket displays. They’ve assembled a long list of Republican primary losers who have refused to endorse the winners. I can think of two more off the top of my head: Pamela Gorman, who didn’t want to catch Ben Quayle’s cooties in AZ-03, and of course Lisa Murkowski, who maybe kinda sorta doesn’t feel all that warmly about the guy who just called her a whore (or a john, take your pick) before the ballot counting was even over. Recall any others?

DSCC/DCCC: This is actually the same link that I got all emo about in that CA-47 item up above, but anyhow, uh, Obama Alert! The POTUS will be in NYC on September 22nd to do a joint event for the two congressional party committees.

Minnesota Public Radio/Humphrey Institute (8/25-29, likely voters, 5/13-16 in parens):

Mark Dayton (D): 34 (35)

Tom Emmer (R): 34 (31)

Tom Horner (IP): 13 (9)

Undecided/Other: 19

(MoE: ±3.6%)

One red flag from this poll is its sample composition — it pegs the Minnesota midterm electorate at 46% Republican, 41% Democratic, and 13% independent. An early August poll by SurveyUSA had a partisan composition of 36D-32R-28I, and showed Dayton leading by 46-32. Indeed, Dayton has been leading in the last five polls of the race, the last three of which by margins varying between 9 and 14 points — and that includes Rasmussen. So I’m not convinced by this poll’s top lines, especially considering the pounding that Emmer’s been taking on the airwaves in the past two weeks.

That’s not to say that Dayton is incapable of fumbling this one — it’s just that most of the evidence suggests that he has yet to do so.

Today’s downballot statewide officeholder is tomorrow’s Senator or Governor. Though these offices tend to get lost in the shuffle of sexier races, they’re important for party-building. So I’ve taken a look at what statewide races are on the ballot to see where each party stands.

A very big chart in png format (I couldn’t find an easy way to convert a spreadsheet with background colors to html) follows. Sorry, smaller monitored folks.

Note: Incumbents with primaries on 9/14 include DE-Treasurer, RI-Lt. Governor, RI-Secretary of State, and WI-Treasurer.

As the key says, dark red is for offices with Republican incumbents, light red is for open Republican seats, dark blue for Democratic incumbents, and light blue for open Democratic seats. I’ve also noted which seats have incumbents that were appointed to their position, and which seats are unopposed by the other party. And for the “Other” category, I’ve specified what the other officeholder’s title is.

Interestingly, despite the surfeit of Republican candidates, seven statewide posts were left unchallenged, only one less than the number of seats the Democrats didn’t field candidates for.

Trouble spots for the Democrats include the number of open spots in Georgia and Oklahoma. Not a lot of vulnerable open Republican seats, though — FL-Attorney General, VT-Lt. Governor, and OH-Auditor seem to be the best chances. I’m not nearly familiar enough with the incumbents to make any judgments there, though.

Sweet score for Alex Sink:

Independent candidate Bud Chiles confirmed Wednesday he would drop out of Florida’s race for governor and back Democratic nominee Alex Sink. […]

In a statement, aide Jim McClellan said Chiles would make the announcement official at a Thursday morning news conference in Tallahassee.

Democratic pollster Tom Eldon said the rise of surprise GOP nominee Rick Scott ended up changing the electoral math for Chiles, the son of former Democratic Gov. Lawton Chiles, who had jumped into the race in June as a alternative to the two major party candidates.

“Democrats, independents and a healthy percentage of Republicans have been coalescing around Sink ever since Scott’s receipt of the GOP’s nomination and this has marginalized Chiles in recent polling,” said Eldon. “Chiles, like these voters, is rightly worried about the damage Rick Scott could do to the state if he were to be elected governor. Chiles could live with himself if Bill McCollum became governor. I don’t think he wanted to face the morning-after had Rick Scott just been elected governor.”

PPP’s most recent poll indicated that the bulk of Chiles’ support came from conservative-leaning folks who just couldn’t stomach Rick Scott. His exit may only have a net neutral effect, but his endorsement is surely welcome news here.

UPDATE: Some more from Chiles:

Chiles added that he came away from the meeting “feeling a whole lot better” about Sink’s stance on issues he cares about, such as renewable energy, children’s issues and spurring small business. “It seemed to me like that there was a lot more agreement than I might have thought.”