SpiderDem’s House of Denial – Senate Edition

After seeing my prediction of 32 House seat pickups for the Republicans yesterday, most of you probably think I’m a lunatic.  Well I’m just getting warmed up.  

In the Senate, here’s what I’m confident of.  First, Republicans will pick up no fewer than four seats: AR, IN, ND, and WI.  Second, Republicans will not pick up more than eight, which is confirmed by Charlie Cook of all people.  So the question becomes who wins seats five through eight: CO, IL, NV, and PA.  And what does a Democrat in deep denial say to that?  Clean sweep, baby.  Democrats win all four seats, and drop four seats total.

Why, you ask?  The only good reason I can give is that Democrats have varying degrees of boots on the ground, GOTV advantages in all of these states.  Otherwise, the answer is self-delusion and an inability to cope with anything worse.  And as a side note, for the time being, I am discounting the possibility of a surprise pickup in Alaska, although I hope for it more than anything.  I think Murkowski will win there.

Without further ado, here are my predictions:

AK – Murkowski (WI) 40, McAdams (D) 30, Miller (R) 28 – Not quite feeling the McMagic.

AL – Shelby (R) 64, Barnes (D) 36 – Shelby probably safe until he retires.

AR – Boozman (R) 56, Lincoln (D) 40 – For all that happened, losing this seat may have been inevitable.

AZ – McCain (R) 57, Glassman (D) 38 – Remember how J.D. Hayworth was going to take out McCain?

CA – Boxer (D) 49, Fiorina (R) 44 – If Cook says it’s over for Team Red, it’s over.

CO – Bennet (D) 49, Buck (R) 48 – Dems apparently pleased with the early voting results.

CT – Blumenthal (D) 55, McMahon (R) 43 – McMahon may as well have lit her millions on fire.

DE – Coons (D) 56, O’Donnell (R) 42 – Amazing that O’Donnell seems somewhat likely to reach 40%.

FL – Rubio (R) 45, Crist (I) 36, Meek (D) 16 – Rubio on cruise control here.

GA – Isakson (R) 60, Thurmond (D) 36 – Isakson appears to have blown the barn doors off of this.

HI – Inouye (D) 61, Cavasso (R) 35 – Not buying Rasmussen’s massive enthusiasm gap.

IA – Grassley (R) 61, Conley (D) 38 – Wrong cycle for nice Democratic recruit.

ID – Crapo (R) 72, Sullivan (D) 26 – Not a serious challenge at all.

IL – Giannoulias (D) 47, Kirk (R) 46 – Dems work magic with base turnout.

IN – Coats (R) 57, Ellsworth (D) 40 – Wonder if Bayh would have held this one in the end.

KS – Moran (R) 66, Johnston (D) 32 – Dems will be blown out across the board in Kansas.

KY – Paul (R) 55, Conway (D) 45 – Oh what might have been in this one.

LA – Vitter (R) 51, Melancon (D) 41 – Sadly Melancon is about the best LA Dems can do.

MD – Mikulski (D) 58, Wargotz (R) 39 – No problem here for Mikulski.

MO – Blunt (R) 53, Carnahan (D) 45 – Carnahan can win a big statewide race in a better cycle.

NC – Burr (R) 54, Marshall (D) 42 – Marshall never really had the resources to compete.

ND – Hoeven (R) 70, Potter (D) 28 – Glad we didn’t have to watch Dorgan go up in flames.

NH – Ayotte (R) 55, Hodes (D) 41 – I don’t think Hodes would have beaten Lamontagne either.

NV – Reid (D) 47, Angle (R) 45 – I’m going with Jon Ralston all the way here.

NY-A – Schumer (D) 63, Townsend (R) 35 – This one was never in question.

NY-B – Gillibrand (D) 60, DioGuardi (R) 37 – Remember all those weird polls in the low single digits?

OH – Portman (R) 57, Fisher (D) 39 – Everyone’s favorite Kamikaze A-wing pilot goes down hard.

OK – Coburn (R) 69, Rogers (D) 29 – Coburn will get to continue rooting out OK’s lesbian problem.

OR – Wyden (D) 57, Huffman (R) 39 – A lesser Dem would be in a dogfight here.

PA – Sestak (D) 50, Toomey (R) 50 – Democratic machine pulls out all the stops for Joe.

SC – Demint (R) 63, Greene (D) 24 – What a fiasco for South Carolina Dems.

SD – Thune (R) unopposed.

UT – Lee (R) 65, Granato (D) 31 – Utah just might be a tough place for a Dem to win this year.

VT – Leahy (D) 65, Britton (R) 32 – No contest for Leahy.

WA – Murray (D) 53, Rossi (R) 47 – If Cook says it’s over for Team Red, it’s over.

WI – Johnson (R) 52, Feingold (D) 46 – Washington needs more Russ Feingolds, not less.

WV – Manchin (D) 51, Raese (R) 46 – If Cook says it’s over for Team Red, it’s over.

Baselines for California, Maryland, Oregon, Washington!

 You may remember all the baseline diaries I used to post here. Now that election day is only two days away, I have combined all my baseline diaries together so you can look at them while watching the returns come in. I did this with the Washington Primary in August and I thought it worked well. This diary goes on for awhile.

If swing state project has to crash on Nov. 2nd (God forbid,) you can still see my baseline diaries by going to my blog: http://frogandturtle.blogspot….

California Gubernatorial race baselines combining results from 2006 Attorney General election and 2008 Presidential election:

Dark Red: Whitman 70%+

Red: Whitman 56%-69%

Light Red: Whitman 50%-55%

Light Blue: Brown 50%-55%

Blue: Brown 56%-69%

Dark Blue: Brown 70%+


Baseline Excel


Cali Baselines 3

Regional breakdowns:

Bay Area:

Bay Area

Cali SoCal

Now for the Maryland Gubernatorial race which recently is going toward Martin O’Malley (D). It combines the results of the 2008 Presidential election with the 2006 Gubernatorial election results.

Dark Red=Ehlrich 70%+

Red=Ehlrich 60%-69%

Light Red=Ehlrich 50%-69%

Blue=O’Malley 60%-69%

Dark Blue= O’Malley 70%+

For a clearer map: http://quickfacts.census.gov/q…


County name O’Malley Ehlrich Other

Alleghany 32% 67% 1%

Anne Arundel 38% 61% 1%

Baltimore County 46% 53% 1%

Balitmore City 73% 26% 1%

Calvert 36% 63% 1%

Caroline 27% 72% 1%

Carrol 23% 76% 1%

Cecil 34% 65% 1%

Charles 49% 50% 1%

Dorcester 33% 66% 1%

Frederick 36% 63% 1%

Garrett 22% 77% 1%

Harford 30% 69% 1%

Howard 48% 51% 1%

Kent 39% 60% 1%

Montgomery 60% 39% 1%

Prince George’s 76% 23% 1%

Queen Anne’s 26% 73% 1%

Somerset 36% 63% 1%

St. Mary’s 33% 66% 1%

Talbot 32% 67% 1%

Washington 32% 67% 1%

Wicomico 34% 65% 1%

Worcester 30% 69% 1%

Now for the Oregon Gubernatorial race with a combination of the 2008 Presidential election and the 1998 Gubernatorial race with John Kitzhaber.

Dark Blue: Kitzhaber 50%+

Blue: Kitzhaber 50%-59%

Light Red: Dudley 50%-59%

Red: Dudley 60%-69%

Dark Red: Dudley 70%+

A clearer map: http://quickfacts.census.gov/q…


Counties Kitzhaber Dudley

Baker 32% 68%

Benton 57% 43%

Clackamas 48% 52%

Clatsop 54% 46%

Columbia 50% 50%

Coos 43% 57%

Crook 32% 68%

Curry 39% 61%

Deschutes 42% 58%

Douglas 36% 64%

Gilliam 43% 57%

Grant 27% 73%

Harney 26% 74%

Hood River 55% 45%

Jackson 44% 56%

Jefferson 42% 58%

Josephine 35% 65%

Klamath 29% 71%

Lake 26% 74%

Lane 56% 44%

Lincoln 54% 46%

Linn 40% 60%

Malheur 25% 75%

Marion 46% 54%

Morrow 40% 60%

Multnomah 66% 34%

Polk 45% 55%

Sherman 40% 60%

Tillamook 51% 49%

Umatilla 40% 60%

Union 38% 62%

Wallowa 33% 67%

Wasco 50% 50%

Washington 52% 48%

Wheeler 34% 66%

Yamhill 44% 56%

Now for Washington Senate combining results from the 2008 Presidential election, 2004 Senatorial race and 2004 Gubernatorial race.

Dark Red: Rossi 65% +

Red: Rossi 55%-64%

Light Red: Rossi 50%-54%

Light Blue: Murray 50%-54%

Blue: Murray 55%-64%

Dark Blue: Murray 65%+

Here is a better quality map of Washington: http://quickfacts.census.gov/q…


List of counties:

County Names Murray Rossi Percentages

Adams 853 2,305 27%-73%

Asotin 2,416 3,941 38%-62%

Benton 14,301 33,369 30%-70%

Chelan 7,568 13,337 36%-64%

Clallam 11,142 13,896 45%-55%

Clark 53,080 66,470 44%-56%

Columbia 415 1,052 28%-72%

Cowlitz 14,377 15,206 49%-51%

Douglas 3,178 6,754 32%-68%

Ferry 848 1,450 37%-63%

Franklin 4,027 8,839 31%-69%

Garfield 237 655 27%-73%

Grant 5,226 12,735 29%-71%

Grays Harbor 9,580 9,390 51%-49%

Island 12,414 14,990 45%-55%

Jefferson 7,690 5,389 59%-41%

King 366,136 236,061 61%-39%

Kitsap 39,653 41,604 49%-51%

Kittitas 4,545 7,140 39%-61%

Klickitat 2,821 3,785 43%-57%

Lewis 7,251 15,478 32%-68%

Lincoln 1,152 2,753 30%-70%

Mason 8,840 9,692 48%-52%

Okanogan 4,173 6,879 38%-62%

Pacific 3,672 3,513 51%-49%

Pend Oreille 1,640 2,653 38%-62%

Pierce 103,807 111,561 48%-52%

San Juan 4,245 2,635 62%-38%

Skagit 16,819 19,745 46%-54%

Skamina 1,634 1,934 46%-54%

Snohomish 104,923 104,505 50%-50%

Spokane 61,628 82,026 43%-57%

Stevens 4,904 9,780 33%-67%

Thurston 44,051 38,752 53%-47%

Wahkiakum 672 825 45%-55%

Walla Walla 5,805 10,365 36%-64%

Whatcom 33,054 32,530 50%-50%

Whitman 4,984 6,448 44%-56%

Yakima 17,919 31,310 36%-64%

Total 991,680 991,752 50%-50%

Here is how the baselines break down regionally:

Seattle & Vicinity

Counties   Murray Rossi

King 366,136  236,061 61%-39%

Snohomish 104,923  104,505 50%-50%

Pierce 103,807  111,561 48%-52%

Kitsap 39,653  41,604 49%-51%

Thurston 44,051  38,752 53%-47%

Total 658,570  532,483 55%-45%

Coastal Washington Murray Rossi

Whatcom 33,054 32,530 50%-50%

Skagit 16,819 19,745 46%-54%

San Juan 4,245 2,635 62%-38%

Island 12,414 14,990 45%-55%

Clallam 11,142 13,896 45%-55%

Jefferson 7,690 5,389 59%-41%

Mason 8,840 9,692 48%-52%

Grays Harbor 9,580 9,390 51%-49%

Pacific 3,672 3,513 51%-49%

Lewis 7,251 15,478 32%-68%

Wahkiakum 672 825 45%-55%

Cowlitz 14,377 15,206 49%-51%

Clark 53,080 66,470 44%-56%

Skamina 1,634 1,934 46%-54%

Total 184,470 211,693 47%-53%

Rest of the State

           Murray Rossi

Total 148,640 247,576 38%-62%

By what margin will Bob Shamansky win?

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AZ Congressional Elections: Baselines and What to Watch on Tuesday

In light of the fact that Arizona has no less than five(!) competitive congressional races next week, I wanted to put together county-level vote baselines for each of the competitive races. Of course, three of those five congressional districts (AZ-03, AZ-05 and AZ-08) are mostly or entirely within one county so baselines don’t do much good there. I’ll go ahead and provide baselines for AZ-01, AZ-07 and throw in AZ-08. For AZ-03, AZ-05, and again AZ-08, I will be providing information about the State Legislative districts within their boundaries and give you some idea of what to look for based on which LDs report first.

First, though, a few general notes about election night. Polls close at 7pm local time (that’s 10pm on the East Coast and 7pm in California because most of Arizona doesn’t observe Daylight Savings Time). Nothing will be reported, however, until 8pm, when counties will release most or all of the Early Voters and Vote-by-Mail results. Precinct level results will then start to come in.

AZ-01 (Ann Kirkpatrick, D-Flagstaff)

Alright, first up is Arizona’s 1st Congressional District, where Flagstaff Democratic Ann Kirkpatrick is in the fight of her life against Flagstaff Republican Paul Gosar. Now, I decided to use 2008-based baselines instead of 2006-based ones. This might strike some people as odd, because of the widely-parroted idea that turnout on the Navajo Nation surges during off-year elections. Unfortunately for Kirkpatrick, I’ve crunched a lot of numbers regarding voting on the Navajo Nation over the last ten years and that simply is an exaggeration. In the 2008 election, the Navajo Nation made up 12.5% of the AZ-01 electorate. In the 2006 election, that percentage was only a little bit higher, 13.5%.  However, other differences between the 2006 and 2008 electorate have a bigger influence on the baselines, most notably the fact that it doesn’t capture continuing growth in Pinal County and that it overestimates likely Democratic performance in Yavapai County (where ’06 Dem nominee Ellen Simon lived) while underestimating Democratic performance in the White Mountains (where Ann Kirkpatrick was born and raised-and where Simon got stomped.) If you want to figure that turnout in Apache, Coconino and Yavapai Counties will be slightly higher and slightly bluer (and thus Gosar will need to do slightly better in places like Yavapai County than the baseline suggests) go ahead. If you’re holding out for a Navajo Nation turnout miracle, however, prepare to be disappointed.

Anyway, here’s the baseline.

Counties Kirkpatrick ’08 Hay Other Percent of CD Kirkpatrick ’10 Gosar Other
Yavapai 47 47 6 34 39 57 4
Coconino 65 29 5 19 57 39 3
Pinal 59 37 5 13 51 47 3
Navajo 57 40 3 12 49 49 2
Apache 74 23 3 9 66 32 2
Gila 52 43 5 8 44 53 3
Graham 43 54 3 4 35 63 2
Greenlee 60 37 3 1 52 46 2
Total 56 39 5 100 48 49 3

I’ve already summed up most of the intricacies of the AZ-01, but I’d throw in that Pinal County will probably be the crucial swing area.

Also, if anyone is curious about the totalities of my findings on the influence of the Navajo Nation on AZ-01, I’ll try to get another diary up before an election. (But here’s the biggest shock: Paul Babbit didn’t get spanked in ’04 because the Navajo Nation didn’t turn out; they turned out at almost the same rate they did in 2002-they just voted for Renzi!).

AZ-03 (OPEN)

Next up is Arizona’s 3rd Congressional District, where Phoenix Democrat Jon Hulbred is hoping to pull off a major upset against Dan progeny and Phoenix Republican Ben Quayle. Now a Democrat winning an open seat in a R+9 district in this cycle does seem a bit like science fiction, but polls have indicated that the race might be quite close, and the southern half of the district has been trending Democratic. Add in Quayle’s “broken moral compass” and Hulbred’s ability to self-fund and, well, this district bears watching.

Now, how can we actually watch this district, as it’s entirely in Maricopa County? Well, while I obviously can’t provide any meaningful county baselines, I can give you an idea of what state legislative districts are in the district so you adjust your expectations to the race based on what LDs report first. I’m only providing information on Lds where the majority of the population lives in the CD, as those are the most relevant.

LD Location Reps (Sntr, Rep, Rep) Approx. % of LD in CD Obama (District-Wide) McCain (District-Wide)
LD-06 Northwest PHX, Anthem OPEN, Seele, Reeve 95 39 59
LD-07 Northeast PHX, Carefree OPEN, OPEN, OPEN 85 40 59
LD-10 Sunnyslope, Metrocenter Gray, Weiers, Yee 70 44 54
LD-11 Camelback Mtn, Paradise Valley OPEN, OPEN, Meyer 90 46 53

Alright, so the question that you’ll have to figure out if you want an idea of Hulbred’s chances on Tuesday is what part of AZ-03 is reporting first. If LD-06 and LD-07 report more quickly than the southern end of the district and Hulbred is holding up pretty well, than he may well be on his way to a big upset. If LD-10 and LD-11 appear to be reporting first and Hulbred isn’t up big, than it likely isn’t happening.

For another way of looking at this, you can also consider the results of some of these LD races. If Democrats Justin Johnson and/or Rita Dickinson look like they’re on their ways to winning the State Senate races in LD-10 and LD-11, respectively, then that would be a good sign for Hulburd as both parties are extremely active in both Lds, particularly in the State Senate races.

AZ-05 (Harry Mitchell, D-Tempe)

My bet for the biggest nail-biter in Arizona on Tuesday in Arizona’s 5th Congressional District, where Tempe Democrat Harry Mitchell is in a difficult rematch against Fountain Hills Republican David Schweikert. While Congressman Mitchell performed better than expected against former Maricopa County Treasurer Schweikert in 2008, that was in part because of huge turnout from Arizona State University-something he probably can’t count on this time.

Again, county-level baselines would be pointless in this district because the whole district is in Maricopa County. However, paying close attention to which Legislative Districts turn out first can give you a pretty good idea of what’s going on Tuesday night.

LD Location Reps (Sntr, Rep, Rep) Approx. % of LD in CD Obama (District-Wide) McCain (District-Wide)
LD-08 Scottsdale, Fountain Hills OPEN, OPEN, Kavanagh 100 41 58
LD-17 Tempe, Downtown Scottsdale OPEN, Ableser, OPEN 100 56 42
LD-20 Western Chandler, Ahwatukee OPEN, OPEN, Waters 90 48 50

Since the district is pretty well concentrated into three Lds (with small fragments in several others), and one is heavily Republican, one is relatively Democratic, and one happens to be the most closely divided  in the state. Basically, if LD-08 comes in first and Mitchell’s still holding up ok, than he should be fine. He’ll probably need a big win (and big turnout) in LD-17 to pull this out though, so if LD-17 is leading the pack and Schweikert’s looking pretty strong, this race is probably done.

If you want to consider LD races as well, keep a close eye on LD-17. In the State Senate race, Democratic State Rep. David Schapira is in a close race with Republican Wendy Rogers. If Rogers looks like she’s going to win, it’s hard to imagine how Mitchell holds on. I’d love to tell you what to look for in the LD-20 State Senate race except, umm, for some reason we’re not fielding a candidate there. Only the Arizona Democratic Party wouldn’t put up a challenger in an open seat that gave Obama 48% of the vote against native son Johnny Mac. Ugh. Anyway, I guess people can watch State Rep. Rae Waters in LD-20, though I think she’ll be fine either way.

AZ-07 (Raúl Grijalva, D-Tucson)

Republicans are ecstatic at the prospect of unseating Tucson Democrat Raúl Grijalva with Tucson Republican Ruth McClung. But do they really have a realistic chance of knocking off the Co-Chair of the Progressive Caucus with someone running on a Tea Party platform? Both my heart and my gut say that it’s unlikely, but weird things happen in wave elections and the district is only D+6. It seems like some of the furor over immigration has cooled off, but it’s not like the boycott is entirely forgotten. That being said, I’m not sure that the boycott moves enough Hispanics and White liberals for McClung to get over the top.

Counties Grijalva ’08 Sweeney Other Percent of CD Grijalva ’10 McClung Other
Pima 73 24 4 48 58 39 3
Yuma 50 45 5 21 35 62 3
Maricopa 57 39 4 16 42 55 3
Pinal 49 47 4 8 34 63 3
Santa Cruz 79 19 2 5 64 34 2
La Paz 42 54 4 3 27 70 3
Total 63 33 4 101 48 49 3

I think this model illustrates the difficulty McClung will face in getting over the top, but all shows the potential for her to get relatively close. I could easily see her doing about that well in Yuma, La Paz, Maricopa and Pinal Counties-Yuma and La Paz Counties generally lean Republican and probably won’t be in the mood to split their tickets the year, and the portions of Maricopa and Pinal Counties that are in AZ-07 have seen big influxes of exburban Whites along with some middle-class Hispanics, so it’s surprising that Grijalva has held up there as well as he has. The potentially fatal problem for McClung, however, is Pima and Santa Cruz Counties. McClung can barely even pronounce Nogales, she’s not going to get many cross-over voters there. Meanwhile, the portion of Pima County in AZ-07 contains primarily urban Hispanics, several different tribes of American Indians and lots of those mythical “Tucson White liberals” everyone yammers on about when discussing racial politics in Arizona. She might pluck off some voters from the latter group, but her conservative profile makes it difficult for her to make deep in-roads.

Alright, that might have been a little too much spin, but the point is that, on balance, the political geography is rather hazardous for McClung, and, unless it’s clear early in the night that key demographics aren’t showing up, Grijalva should be on his way to a close but comfortable victory.

AZ-08 (Gabrielle Giffords, D-Tucson)

We end this journey of competitive house races in Arizona with the place where I was born and raised, Arizona’s 8th Congressional District, where Tucson Democrat Gabrielle Giffords is locked in a tough race with Marana Republican Jesse Kelly. While Republicans expressed concerns about their chances of winning this district after Kelly won the primary and Giffords has run several of this cycles better political ads, neither party is leaving anything to chance, and this will almost surely be the closest race of Giffords’ congressional career. Also in Giffords’ favor is the fact that she’s built a decent GOTV operation-nothing too flashy but much better than what the Arizona Democratic Party puts forth, which is basically nothing (Do you guys realize that Dems probably would have won the Arizona State House in 2008 if we had the GOTV operation pretty much any other respectable Democratic party has? Imagine: no massive education cuts, no suspension of the corporate property tax, SB 1070 has to be compromised or it’s thrown out entirely… but I digress).

Here’s what we have for a baseline…

Counties Giffords ’08 Bee Other Percent of CD Giffords ’10 Bee Other
Pima 56 42 2 82 50 48 2
Cochise 49 48 3 15 43 54 3
Pinal 45 54 1 2 39 60 1
Santa Cruz 57 41 3 1 51 47 3
Total 55 43 2 100 49 49 2

As you can see, it isn’t actually that useful, because the bulk of the district lives in Pima County. If Kelly doesn’t look like he’s going to win Cochise County, than forget it. If Giffords is struggling in Pima County, than she’s probably struggling district-wide, but I didn’t have to tell you that.

In this case, legislative districts might be more useful than just baselines alone, because so depends on what part of the district reports first.

LD Location Reps (Sntr, Rep, Rep) Approx. % of LD in CD Obama (District-Wide) McCain (District-Wide)
LD-25 Nogales, Douglas, Rural South. AZ Alvarez, Fleming, Stevens 50 47 52
LD-26 Northern Tucson Suburbs Melvin, Williams, Wright 100 45 54
LD-28 Midtown Tucson Aboud, Farley, OPEN 85 62 37
LD-29 Southside Tucson, Davis-Monthan AFB Lopez, Patterson, Heinz 50 59 40
LD-30 Eastern Tucson Suburbs, Sierra Vista Antenori, Gowan, Vogt 100 43 56

I should note that my disclaimer that Obama/McCain numbers come from the LD-at-large and not the fragment within the CD is particularly relevent, because the portions of LD-25 and LD-29 that are in AZ-08 are somewhat more Republican than the presidential numbers suggest. The part of LD-25 in AZ-08 is probably about as Republican as LD-30 and the part of LD-29 in AZ-08 is probably pretty close to 50/50. So, if Giffords is struggling but the only parts of the district in are LD-25 & LD-30, I wouldn’t hit the panic button just yet. But if she’s struggling, LD-28 is all in, and you’re hoping LD-29 is going to save her, it’s probably not happening. In the last two races, Giffords has done very well in LD-26, because its tendency is to elect moderates. If LD-26 is the first out that gate and it looks like it’s turning on her, than it’s going to be a long night.

If you want to peg Giffords’ chances to legislative districts, again, keep a close eye on LD-26. Despite first (barely) winning in a Democratic year, Republican State Sen. Al Melvin is probably in serious trouble in his rematch against Democrat Cheryl Cage; if it looks like she’s going to win then that’s probably a pretty good sign for Giffords. If Democrat Todd Camenisch is upsetting Republican State Sen. Frank Antenori in LD-30, then it’ll probably be a good night for Southern Arizona Dems and Giffords should be fine. Manny Alvarez will likely have a pretty close race in LD-25 against Republican Gail Griffin, but unless he’s losing badly results there are going to say more about turnout in AZ-07 than voters turning against Dems in AZ-08.  

By what margin will Bob Shamansky win?

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Egg on the Face? My Final House Predictions

Here we go.  FL-12 not included due to three-way confusion.

Comment and tell me what you think if you read it.

Safe Takeover:

LA-3: Jeff Landry  I’m not sure when a Democrat will hold this district again

NY-29: Tom Reed  We’re not even trying here, but it’s better we don’t.  Need about 3 upstate GOPers in order to have safe map for incumbent Dems.  Right now just Lee and Reed exist.

TN-6: Diane Black  Another district that won’t be Dem for a very long time.  Getting more suburban every decade.

59-41 districts:

MI-11: Thad McCotter  Very conservative in a swing district, but wrong year and not a strong challenger.  I wonder how Michigan redistricting will look.  We need PVI in Dave’s App for it.

DE-AL: John Carney This one’s easy.  Thanks for the crazies, Delaware!

LA-2: Cedric Richmond Also easy, Cao couldn’t win in ANY year.  I really hope Richmond’s primaried out by someone in 2012, however.  I don’t like him at all.  

IN-7: Andre Carson  Trending blue by the year.

NY-2: Steve Israel  Put up ads early, kept wave from getting to him

NC-13: Brad Miller  Definition of backbencher, but he’s a good Dem

OK-2: Dan Boren  Just because of the year.  Still an asshole, though

WA-6: Norm Dicks  I have heard he’s corrupt, let’s not have him chair appropriations? Kthx 🙂

58-42 Districts:

CA-45: Mary Bono Mack  Right candidate, wrong year.  Looks to me like Prop 20 would give Bono Mack a safer district by taking out Moreno Valley and putting it in an open R seat.  That’s my take, anyway.  Would also add Beaumont, San Jacinto, and some High Desert area from San Bernardino County.  Too bad.

NE-2:  Lee Terry  He’s a complete ass that nobody likes, but it’s also the wrong year.  I really wish we’d gotten him in 2008.

OH-13: Betty Sutton  Looked competitive until Ganley was discovered to be rapist

UT-2: Jim Matheson  I wonder if GOP will try and get rid of him next year or give him safer Salt Lake district?

NY-4: Carolyn McCarthy  Kinda wish she’d been chosen for Senate instead of Gillibrand.  Gillibrand’s too much of a flip-flopper.

RI-1: David Cicciline  I don’t buy that this is competitive when 2/3 of voters will go for a Dem or a Chafee.

ME-2: Mike Michaud  Meet Maine’s next Senator.

ID-1: Walt Minnick  Wow!

PA-4: Jason Altmire Perfect fit for his district

MO-5: Emmanuel Cleaver  Same here.

57-43 Districts:

AR-2: Tim Griffin He’ll be here as long as he wants.  Elliott didn’t have a chance.

KY-3: John Yarmuth  Loved by district despite liberalism

NY-25: Dan Maffei  One of safest freshmen from ’08.  Future Senator replacement for Schumer?

OR-1: David Wu  Will be one of two mainland Asians left in Congress, I believe.

MA-4: Barney Frank  This is NOT Lean D.  Sorry, Charlie.

PA-15: Charlie Dent  How did Pat Toomey hold this seat?

CO-7: Ed Perlmutter  I just don’t think Perlmutter is as vulnerable as people say.

NM-3: Ben Lujan  Neither is Lujan.  The Hispanics here turn out.

CA-44: Ken Calvert  District will be pure toss-up post Prop 20.  Please, can we get rid of him then?  BTW, this is all based on a Prop 20 map I drew.

IL-8: Melissa Bean  Lucked out with joke of a challenger.  Life’s been good to her soooo far!

NY-22: Maurice Hinchey  He’s not in danger, but I think this is his last relection.  Saves having to combine two congresspeoples’ districts, and this is the weirdest-shaped upstate one anyway.  

NJ-6: Bill Pascrell  I really know nothing about this guy.

PA-17: Tim Holden  He’ll be holden on to this seat for two more years, we’ll see about redistricting

TN-5: Jim Cooper  Everyone says he’s not a fit for the district, but it’s no more than D+5.  Nashville’s not Memphis.

56-44 Districts:

NJ-12: Rush Holt  It’s amazing two people named Rush are prominent in politics, but they couldn’t be more different

TX-something: Ruben Hinojosa  Also know nothing about this guy

MI-3: Justin Amash  Too conservative for district, but wrong year

AZ-8: Gabby Giffords  I really like her, but can she beat Kyl in 2012?

MO-3: Russ Carnahan  Carnahans, they’re everywhere! RedState has some BS about how he’s anti-Catholic

CA-20: Jim Costa  Hispanics turn out at low rates, but Costa’s very moderate

WV-3: Nick Rahall  Incredibly racist anti-Rahall ads

FL-2: Allen Boyd Dead man walking.  Wasn’t bad at all for a rural Southern Democrat.  Will be missed.

GA-2: Sanford Bishop  Too many Blacks in district for Keown.

IA-3: Leonard Boswell Amazing recovery, but he’s retiring in two years, I bet.  Good way to go out.

OH-12: Pat Tiberi  I always thought this guy was a moderate, but I checked DW-Nominate and he’s nothing of the sort.

NC-2: Bob Etheridge  Yes, ElectionProjection, of COURSE he’ll lose.  

NC-4: David Price  Why is he vulnerable?  He’s a Kanjo waiting to happen.  Retire next cycle, please.

IN-8: Larry Bucshon Generic R vs. Generic D in this district? What do you think?

OR-4: Peter DeFazio  Art Robinson? HA

TX-something: Henry Cuellar  Another anonymous Hispanic Texas Dem, along with Hinojosa, Ortiz.

MN-1: Tim Walz  Guy’s entrenched himself well, coming after a real conservative guy in Gutknecht

IA-2: Dave Loebsack  Smart, progressive guy

55-45 districts: MI-9: Gary Peters  Rocky is Tea Party member in suburban district.  I don’t think so.

NC-11: Heath Shuler  Heath, you will NEVER be speaker.  Sorry.

TX-17: Bill Flores  He almost lost in 2008, kind of.  This is the end, Chet.  Too bad.

WA-9: Adam Smith  Who would’ve thought the guy who invented laissez-faire was a Democrat?

FL-24: Sandy Adams Kosmas wouldn’t have won if Feeney wasn’t corrupt

NY-21: Paul Tonko  Albany area trending away from Dems, slowly.

AZ-7: Raul Grijalva  Boycotting your own state?  I’d primary him if I lived there.  Also, the whole killing HCR thing was a dick move (do they use this expression in other places?)

CA-3: Dan Lungren  Just the wrong year.  He’s dead in 2012 if Bera runs again and Obama’s semi-popular.  

ME-1: Chellie Pingree  She’s really weak for a blue district.  Don’t let her run for Senate.

TX-something: Solomon Ortiz  See above

PA-6: Jim Gerlach  He’s been lucky

IA-1: Bruce Braley  AAF can’t get rid of him

CT-4: Jim Himes  Strong Freshman

OH-1: Steve Chabot  Dreihaus needed Obama and AA turnout

KS-3: Kevin Yoder  Dennis Moore: Time for a new generation of leadership.  My wife’s gonna run to replace me.  I call bullshit on him.

IL-11: Adam Kinzinger He’s a really strong candidate.  Let’s see how he votes, and if he’s eyeing a promotion.

IN-2: Joe Donnelly  Donnelly might be in his last term next year.

NY-1: Tim Bishop  Very popular

54-46 Districts:

WI-7: Sean Duffy Open seats are really tough to defend.

MA-6: John Tierney  Tierney’s actually more liberal than most of his delegation despite more blue-collar district.  Oh yeah, and his wife…

AZ-5: Harry Mitchell  He’s to Tempe what LeBron is to…oh wait…

ND-AL: Earl Pomeroy  Hoeven, environment, cap and trade, etc.  Not looking good for Earl.

NC-7: Mike McIntyre  His candidate should be in jail, in a cell with Rick Scott and Allen West.

CA-47: Loretta Sanchez  What’s with Sanchezes and racial/ethnic gaffes/bigotry?

TN-4: Lincoln Davis  This one might be closer than I predict.  Wouldn’t be surprised if he loses.  

VA-9: Rick Boucher  I WOULD be surprised here

CO-4: Cory Gardner  Buck will do well here, and Gardner’s Generic R.

TN-8: Stephen Fincher  Tennessee’s a bloodbath this year

MN-6: Michelle Bachmann  I say keep her in the House and get rid of Kline.

AR-1: Rick Crawford  Historically Dem Mississippi River districts not looking so hot this year

PA-3: Mike Kelly  Why isn’t this race closer?

IL-10: Dan Seals  Here’s a pickup by our side.  How liberal is Seals?  I heard he was a Blue Dog, I think?

NY-13: Mike McMahon  Asshole, but he’s our asshole.

OH-15: Steve Stivers  Kilroy is a very weak candidate

FL-8: Dan Webster  Grayson should look up “asshole” in Webster’s dictionary; he’ll see his picture there

KY-6: Ben Chandler  Raise your hand if you knew he was the son of an MLB commish

NY-24: Mike Arcuri  This one’s a shocker

53-47 Races:

OH-10: Dennis Kucinich  He’s just weird…

SC-5: Mick Mulvaney  Not huge loss as he’d be gone in two years anyway, either from redistricting or retirement.

AZ-3: Ben Quayle  What an ass.

IL-17: Bobby Schilling  He’s a one-termer if I every saw one.

WA-2: Rick Larsen  District’s more conservative than you’d think, Murray could lose it narrowly.

VA-11: Gerry Connolly  Getting a bit worried about this one…

NY-19: Nan Hayworth  Who wouldn’t vote for a rogue ophthamologist named Nan?

MS-1: Alan Nunnellee  Fear the mustache

NM-1: Martin Heinrich  New Mexico’s next Senator

CA-18: Dennis Cardoza  Water issues are very key here

HI-1: Colleen Hanabusa Expected it to be bigger margin

VA-2: Scott Rigell Nye’s disappointed netroots

WI-8: Reid Ribble  Great name, but Kagen was great congressman

NJ-3: Jon Runyan  I’m surprised, but I think he’ll win

52-48 margins:

FL-25: David Rivera  Will he become entrenched fast enough?

WI-3: Ron Kind  RedState’s been touting this one for months.  Another “next senator”

AL-2: Bobby Bright  Good fit for district

OH-16: Jim Renacci Boccieri can play with his newborn instead

MD-1: Andy Harris  People don’t like him, but he’s the Republican

PA-12: Mark Critz  Will be eliminated in two years

FL-22: Ron Klein  In the end, West’s just plain crazy.  This one may be more based on hope than gut.

NM-2: Steve Pearce  Watch him try and run for senate in 2012

NH-1: Frank Guinta  Corrupt.  We can get him next cycle.

IL-12: Jerry Costello  I don’t care how weak the opponent is.  Downstate Illinois is hell this year.

CA-11: Jerry McNerney  Harmer’s against public education.

NC-8: Larry Kissell  I have no clue how to rate this one, little polling

PA-7: Pat Meehan  Only cuz of the cycle

MO-4: Ike Skelton  Retiring in two years, but won’t go out a loser

WA-8: Dave Reichert  I think health could force retirement soon as well.  Hope for a recovery

MS-4: Steven Palazzo  Gene’s in an insanely tough district and year.  Could a Brett Favre campaign visit this weekend help?  He’s injured, right?

51-49 districts:

NY-20: Guy running against Scott Murphy  I honestly forget his name, but this gives GOP the third district upstate to make a safe 24-4 D map.

OR-5: Scott Bruun  Is it pronounced Scott Brown?

OH-6: Charlie Wilson  What’s with the domestic abuse thing?

OH-18: Zack Space  SEIU are idiots

GA-8: Austin Scott Sorry, RuralDem.  We’ll see who’s right, and I’ll admit it if I’m not.

VA-5: Rob Hurt  Perriello closer than Nye would make me happy

MA-10: Bill Keating   How’s Perry still in this?

CO-3: John Salazar  Popular

NY-23: Bill Owens  Hoffman saved him

IL-14: Randy Hultgren  It’s the environment

IN-9: Baron Hill  HoosierDem will be happy

TX-23: Ciro Rodriguez  I heard he’s winning.

MI-7: Mark Schauer  Walberg is flawed

MN-8: Jim Oberstar  I agree with Mark, I could see him losing

PA-8: Mike Fitzpatrick  Would instantly be most moderate GOPer

NH-2: Charlie Bass  He’s really not moderate, if you look at the record

50-50 races

WV-1: David McKinley I say R pickup either way, Oliverio’s not staying if R’s take House

AZ-1: Ann Kirkpatrick  Optimistic about Navajo

SD-AL: Kristi Noem  Driving record almost brings her down

MI-1: Dan Benishek A new Dr. Dan

NV-3: Joe Heck  Just switched this one today.  

PA-10: Tom Marino  How is he winning?

PA-11: Paul Kanjorski  How is HE winning?  Remember when we all “knew” Kanjo would lose, Carney would win?

I literally have Speaker Boehner by one seat…wow.

UPDATED : Siena Poll is out with ugly State Senate News in New York

The NYS Senate is currently controlled by the Democratic Party 32-30. The Democrats can afford a net loss of one seat and remain in control due to the pending election of Andrew Cuomo. Cuomo’s tandem running mate, Rochester Mayor Bob Duffy will be empowered to cast the tie breaking vote in favor of the Democrats organizing the majority. This is important as the majority party of each chamber redraws the district lines in their respective bodies. The Assembly is under super Democratic majority of 108-42.  Even a dozen seat loss will still leave that chamber under a very large blue team majority.

More after the jump

The Siena Research Institute conducted a poll of three endangered Democratic seats and one open Republican seat. The link is below with crosstabs


Unfortunately my local freshman Senator Brian Foley is heading for defeat down 16 points.  Darryl Aubertine is within the margin of error in SD48 down only four points.  Tim Kennedy who defeated an incumbent Democrat in the primaries now leads his Buffalo based 58th SD by six points. In the open race SD40, the Republican has a five point lead.  What is interesting is that in the LI 3rd and the Buffalo 58th, the voters are almost swinging opposite their intended Governor vote! Cuomo is winning the 3rd against Carl Palladino 57%-33% while Zeldin is up over Foley 53%-47%.  In Palladino home turf of Buffalo he runs ahead of Cuomo 58%-30% while Kennedy the Democrat is up 45%-39%.

If these polls hold the Democrats will be in a 32-30 minority come January.  They need to pick up one seat and that may happen in one of four relatively unpolled races including the 41st SD where Didi Barret is running a spirited race against Republican Stephen Saland. This district like others in the Mid-Hudson Valley has been trending Democratic with an 8,000 Democratic registration advantage. The open 38th that has a 40,000 Democratic advantage in registration where a fine young Democratic candidate David Carlucci is facing off against Scott Vanderhoef a local County Executive.  This may be the Democrats best pickup opportunity for the tie Senate seat. In Queens the 11th SD where incumbent Frank Padavan was re-elected by only a few hundred votes faces stiff challenge from City Councilmember Tony Avella in a district that has three times as many registered Democrats than Republicans.

There are some other spirited challenges in the Monroe County and Erie County regions but I feel these may be our best chance to keep the majority Blue! What do you think?


I just returned from a GOTV canvass out of the Foley Patchogue HQ.  I spoke with his top managers who had this to say about the Siena Poll

Notice that the Siena Cross-tabs dropped Race from the poll. In a district that is the most diversified on LI with roughly one in three residents Latino and African American, not to poll for race, not to include cell phones, to show that males will outnumber females on election day??? The Foley internals show Brian up by three points and we got a hold of the Zeldin internals that also show Foley up by two points

I said to them, and we were alone, listen, I am here for the ride if we were down fifty points, just don’t blow smoke up my butt if we are really this far back.

Their response

If we were that far back our staff would have been pulled out into the upstate close races for the final push, instead we have four hundred workers hitting the streets for the final GOTV not including organized labor and we have enough supporters identified to win the race if we just get them to the polls.  The 6th Assembly seat which is heavily minority and is a third of the State Senate District has a trained GOTV by Assemblyman Ramos staff and we are leaving nobody home

By what margin will Bob Shamansky win?

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How Much Will Carl Paladino Lose By?

I have been thinking about this for weeks now, how much do you think that Carl Paladino will lose by, I am guessing at least 20 points. But I really do not know. And when do you think that the election will be called for Cuomo. I will be working as a poll worker and polls in NY do not close until 9pm. Do you think that by the time I get home around 10 pm or 10:30 or Paladino will be giving his concession speech?

Hoosierdem’s Senate Predicts

I have put together my Senate Predictions. Not overall very pretty for us but he hold control. I provided some commentary to along with them. There is nothing scientific about them, no fancy turnout models, just me looking at polls and the dynamics of the races and putting my gut call. Enjoy.





Nothing to see here.





Some egg on Sarah’s face.




Good news for John McCain.




Yada Yada Yada…





Could be higher for Boxer





Close but no cigar





What a waste of money



The Witch-38

Thank You DE GOP, you guys ROCK!






Senator Rubio will have a long career.





Decent run by Thurmond, nothing to be ashamed of





Hopes he takes Ab over the finish line.





I’m glad Crapo is not unopposed. No one should run unopposed



Sexy Alexi-46


Close but Kirk pulls through. Let’s hope Obama can help turnout


The lobbyist-55








Not bad but no way Grassley loses




Not even in a good year




I don’t want to talk about it




It’s Louisiana, they’ve seen worse



Some Dude-35


Maybe she’ll finally chair a committee





Sigh, maybe she can run again in 6 years.






I’m sorry I don’t buy the all polls are wrong theory

New Hampshire




Wrong year

New York




Interesting note Townsend is son of liberal icon and former IN gubernatorial candidate Wayne Townsend

New York Special


The father of Kara- 35


Lucky lady

North Carolina




Wrong year

North Dakota



Over the moment Dorgan left





I will hold out hope for Strickland




Check out Roger’s pic on wikipedia. Funny





Hopefully Wyden pulls Kits over the finish line




Close but the PA goes evil

South Carolina




DeMint under 60 should say something about him

South Dakota


I wish someone would have taken the sacrificial lamb role




Lee was under 50 in Mason Dixon




Hopefully Shumlin benefits




Close but Murray hangs on. You don’t enter as late as Rossi and win

West Virginia


The Floridian-47


Manchin has got the momentum back. Even Rass has him ahead 3




Feingold is a horrible campaigner and it’s a horrible year

Feedback? Thanks.


By what margin will Bob Shamansky win?

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Obligatory Senate predictions.

Well, since my House diary was so successful (all of 16 comments, over half of them my own – yay!), I’m going to keep going. Here are my Senate predictions. Stealing a good idea from spiderdem, I’m also going to include projected margins of victory, mostly based on what I’ve seen, but occasionally pulled out of my butt based on gut feeling, observed trends, or some other completely arbitrary whatever.  


*Alaska: McAdams 35 Murkowski 34 Miller 31

Murkowski and Miller take a pound of flesh from each other, McAdams narrowly wins. Years of lawsuits ensue.


*California: Boxer 53 Fiorina 47

Boxer always closes strong. Good D turnout in CA.

*Colorado: Bennet 51 Buck 49

Late D turnout for Bennet pulls him over.

*Connecticut: Blumenthal 54 McMahon 46

Weak performance by Blumenthal, but McMahon can’t win.

*Delaware: Coons 61 O’Donnell 39

Thanks, teabaggers!  

*Nevada: Reid 50 Angle 50

Goes to a recount, but Reid wins by less than 1,000 votes.

*New York-B: Gillibrand 60 Some Dude 40

Not even close. I can’t even remember the R’s name here.

*Oregon: Wyden 57 Huffman 43

Only in Scotty Ras’s fevered dreams is this race remotely competitive.

*Pennsylvania: Sestak 52 Toomey 48

Sestak’s last minute “blitzkrieg” strategy overwhelms yet another complacent Republican. If he pulls this out, he should run for President.

*Washington: Murray 53 Rossi 47

I don’t care what the polls say, Dino Rossi will never, ever, ever come remotely close to winning a statewide race in Washington after 2004.

*West Virginia: Manchin 55 Raese 45

This state clearly wants to elect a Republican, but a carpetbagging rich guy from Florida isn’t going to beat a Dem as popular as Joe Manchin.


*Arkansas: Boozman 57 Lincoln 43

Lincoln pulls closer, but still doesn’t deliver.

*Illinois: Kirk 50 Giannoulias 50

This one won’t be resolved for months. Between here and NV, media develops “Dems cheating at important seats” narrative. Heckuva job, Blago.

*Indiana: Coats 54 Ellsworth 46

Ellsworth really should win this one, but he’s run a terrible campaign. Entirely Evan Bayh’s fault for being such a two-faced coward.

*North Dakota: Hoeven 66 Some Dude 33

Like NY-Sen, I can’t even remember the loser’s name here.

*Wisconsin: Johnson 52 Feingold 48

Feingold is the Nancy Boyda of the US Senate. If he’d accepted DSCC help, he’d have won.


*Arizona: McCain 58 Glassman 42

McCain crushes Glassman. No contest.

*Florida: Rubio 44 Crist 39 Meek 17

Crist’s epic fail of a campaign and Meek’s epic fail of an ego have totally screwed us here.

*Georgia: Isakson 57 Thurmond 43

Isakson weak for a GOP incumbent in Georgia, but this isn’t the year.

*Iowa: Grassley 56 Conlin 44

Surprisingly weak showing for Grassley, but everyone knows it’s his last election.

*Kentucky: Paul 53 Conway 47

The Aqua Buddha ad inexplicably killed Conway’s campaign. Kentucky voters are idiots.

*Louisiana: Vitter 52 Melancon 48

In the biggest shocker of the night, Melancon almost knocks off Vitter…until the Shreveport vote barely drags him over the line.

*Missouri: Blunt 51 Carnahan 49

Carnahan closes strong, but it’s not quite enough. Blunt is such an enormous a-hole that he won’t last more than a single term, even in MO.

*New Hampshire: Ayotte 54 Hodes 46

Hodes too liberal to win statewide in a bad year.

*North Carolina: Burr 52 Marshall 48

Biggest missed opportunity of the cycle.

*Ohio: Portman 59 Fisher 41

Fisher’s phoned it in. Stick a fork in this one.


Hawaii, Maryland, New York-A, Vermont


Alabama, Idaho, Kansas, Oklahoma, S. Carolina, S. Dakota, Utah


Old margin: D 59, R 41

New margin: D 54, R 46

That’s it. There’s less to do here so I’m not that far off from everyone else’s projections, but have at me anyway.