SpiderDem’s House of Denial – Governor’s Edition

Same drill as my prior efforts this week.  Net gain of 3 1/2 for the Republicans.  They pick up 10 seats.  Democrats pick up 6.  Indy Lincoln Chafee picks up RI.  Pickups in bold.

AK – Parnell (R) 53, Berkowitz (D) 42 – Bet Berkowitz wishes he had run for Senate.

AL – Bentley (R) 57, Sparks (D) 42 – Thanks for putting Davis out to pasture, Ron.

AR – Beebe (D) 60, Keet (R) 38 – Beebe a red state powerhouse.

AZ – Brewer (R) 52, Goddard (D) 44 – Few less deserving candidates will win this year than Brewer.

CA – Brown (D) 50, Whitman (R) 44 – What a turnaround for Brown.

CO – Hickenlooper (D) 48, Tancredo (C) 41, Maes (R) 8 – Hickenlooper seems to be fending off the Tanc.

CT – Malloy (D) 50, Foley (R) 48 – Furious comeback for Foley comes up just short.

FL – Sink (D) 49, Scott (R) 48 – This one’s in my backyard.  Please voters, come to your senses!

GA – Deal (R) 51, Barnes (D) 45 – Amazing that things are so bad that GA voters will elect a guy like Deal.

HI – Abercrombie (D) 53, Aiona (R) 45 – Not quite buying the massive enthusiasm gap.

IA – Branstad (R) 53, Culver (D) 44 – Culver keeps it barely close enough to avert statewide disaster.

ID – Otter (R) 57, Allred (D) 40 – Allred a decent statewide candidate for Idaho.

IL – Quinn (D) 45, Brady (R) 45 – Illinois Dems work magic with turnout.

KS – Brownback (R) 61, Holland (D) 38 – Poor Kansas.  Four years (at least) of Brownback.

MA – Patrick (D) 47, Baker (R) 42, Cahill (I) 9 – Patrick will be quite the survival story if he pulls it off.

MD – O’Malley (D) 54, Ehrlich (R) 44 – Nice job by O’Malley taking control of this one.

ME – LePage (R) 40, Cutler (I) 34, Mitchell (D) 24 – Cutler surging here, but hard to imagine a win.

MI – Snyder (R) 57, Bernero (D) 41 – This one was over the day Snyder was nominated.

MN – Dayton (D) 44, Emmer (R) 39, Horner (I) 14 – Dayton has maintained the lead since primary.

NE – Heineman (R) 70, Meister (D) 30 – No contest in this one.

NH – Lynch (D) 53, Stephen (R) 45 – Comfortable win for Lynch.

NM – Martinez (R) 54, Denish (D) 46 – Outgoing administration a huge drag on Denish.

NV – Sandoval (R) 53, Reid (D) 40 – Why did we nominate Reid the Younger again?

NY – Cuomo (D) 61, Paladino (R) 35 – What a piece of work Paladino turned out to be.

OH – Strickland (D) 49, Kasich (R) 48 – Surging Strickland takes it with base turnout.

OK – Fallin (R) 58, Askins (D) 42 – Will be interesting to see if Dems can compete in OK going forward.

OR – Kitzhaber (D) 49, Dudley (R) 46 – Amazing sign of the times that bricklayer Dudley is even in it.

PA – Corbett (R) 52, Onorato (D) 48 – Onorato growing on people, but too little too late.

RI – Chafee (I) 40, Robitaille (R) 31, Caprio (D) 27 – Off-message Caprio goes down hard.

SC – Haley (R) 54, Sheheen (D) 44 – Alvin Greene can’t be helping matters here.

SD – Daugaard (R) 59, Heidepriem (D) 41 – Heidepriem actually not a bad candidate.

TN – Haslam (R) 61, McWherter (D) 37 – Haslam’s strong candidacy may sink Dems throughout state.

TX – Perry (R) 53, White (D) 45 – Wrong year for White to try to pull this off.

UT – Herbert (R) 63, Corroon (D) 34 – Republicans still able to get by in Utah.

VT – Shumlin (D) 51, Dubie (R) 45 – Dubie gets smoked, as someone said yesterday.

WI – Walker (R) 54, Barrett (D) 45 – Outgoing administration a huge drag on Barrett.

WY – Mead (R) 63, Peterson (D) 35 – Wonder how Freudenthal would have done here.

Predictions: 56, 8, 7.5

HOUSE

D LOSSES 60

TN 6

LA 3

NY 29

AR 2

MS 1

OH 1

TX 17

KS 3

FL 24

OH 15

FL 2

IN 8

TN 8

IL 11

CO 4

PA 3

FL 8

OH 16

VA 2

MD 1

MI 1

VA 5

WI 8

AR 1

WI 7

ND

NH 1

NM 2

SC 5

GA 8

IL 14

AZ 5

AL 2

AZ 1

WA 3

PA 7

PA 8

IN 9

NY 23

SD

CA 11

CO 3

NJ 3

TN 4

MS 4

NY 20

PA 10

WV 1

NC 7

NH 2

NV 3

NY 19

IL 17

NC 8

FL 22

OH 18

NC 2

CT 4

NM 1

CT 5

D WINS 4

LA 2

DE

IL 10

HI 1

SENATE

D LOSSES 8

NEVADA

ILLINOIS

PENNSYLVANIA

COLORADO

WISCONSIN

INDIANA

ARKANSAS

NORTH DAKOTA

GOVERNORS

D LOSSES 12

Wyoming

Oklahoma

Kansas

Iowa

Wisconsin

Michigan

Ohio

Pennsylvania

New Mexico

Tennessee

Illinois

Maine

D GAINS 4

Hawaii

California

Minnesota

Vermont

1/2 R loss — I

Rhode Island

Net loss of 7.5.

SSP’s Competitive Senate Race Ratings: Final 2010 Changes & Chart

Barring any unexpected last-minute developments, below you will find our final senate race ratings changes and a complete chart of all of our ratings. To see how much things have changed since we issued our first ratings of the cycle in January of 2009, please click here.

Final Senate Race Ratings Changes:

  • IN-Sen: Likely R to Safe R
  • KY-Sen: Tossup to Lean R
  • NH-Sen: Lean R to Likely R
  • NY-Sen-B: Likely D to Safe D
  • OH-Sen: Likely R to Safe R
  • WA-Sen: Lean D to Tossup

Final Senate Race Ratings Chart:

Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R
DE (Open) CA (Boxer)

CT (Open)
AK (Murkowski)

CO (Bennet)

IL (Open)

NV (Reid)

PA (Open)

WA (Murray)

WV (Open)
KY (Open)

MO (Open)

WI (Feingold)
AR (Lincoln)

FL (Open)

LA (Vitter)

NC (Burr)

NH (Open)

Safe R:

     IN (Open)

     ND (Open)

SSP Daily Digest: 11/1 (Morning Edition)

Another huge batch of polls to tide you over until tomorrow.

  • CA-Sen
  • DE-Sen (PDF)
  • DE-AL (x2)
  • FL-Sen (Mason-Dixon)
  • FL-Sen (Susquehanna)
  • KS-Sen
  • KS-Gov
  • KS-04
  • MA-Gov
  • MI-09
  • MN-08
  • MN-Gov
  • MO-Sen (PDF)
  • MO-04 (PDF)
  • MO-07 (PDF)
  • NV-Sen
  • NY-19
  • OH-Gov
  • OR-Gov
  • PA-Sen (PPP)
  • PA-Sen (Muhlenberg)
  • PA-Gov (Muhlenberg)
  • RI-02
  • TX-Gov (PDF)
  • WA-Sen (Washington Poll)
  • WA-Sen (SUSA)
  • WI-Sen
  • WI-Sen (PDF)
  • WI-Gov (PDF)
  • Bonus: Siena has four new NY state senate polls out (PDF):

    SD-03: Brian Foley (D-inc) 37, Lee Zeldin (R) 53

    SD-40: Michael Kaplowitz (D) 44, Greg Ball (R) 49

    SD-48: Darrel Aubertine (D-inc) 43, Patty Ritchie (R) 47

    SD-58: Tim Kennedy (D) 45, Jack Quinn (R) 39, William Stachowski (WFP/I) 9

    Note that Stachowski is the incumbent, but lost the Dem primary to Kennedy.

    SSP Updates 13 House Race Ratings

    We’ll post a final House ratings chart soon. For now, here are our latest changes:

    • CA-20: Lean D to Tossup
    • FL-08: Tossup to Lean R
    • GA-02: Lean D to Tossup
    • GA-08: Tossup to Lean R
    • IA-01: Likely D to Lean D
    • ME-01: Likely D to Lean D
    • MN-08: Likely D to Lean D
    • MS-02: Safe D to Likely D
    • NH-01: Tossup to Lean R
    • NM-01: Lean D to Tossup
    • OH-18: Lean D to Tossup
    • TX-27: Likely D to Lean D
    • WI-03: Likely D to Lean D

    All of these moves favor Republicans.