Month: January 2011

Since it is one of the states the Dems completely control, I decided to look some at what could be done in West Virginia. Two objectives came to mind:

– Shore up Rahall

– Make life difficult for McKinley

Here is my first map:

The second district (in green) is designed to soak up as many Republican areas as possible and is around 61% McCain.  The first district (in blue) is now up about 45% Obama, while the third district clocks in at just over 46% Obama.  This is compared with 42% that Obama got in both districts in their current form.

Capito Moore lives in Charleston, so she might run for statewide office rather than in the new second, but should she decide to stay in congress her non-residency should be a non-issue, given her popularity.

This got me thinking: Is 46% Obama really the best we can do in West Virginia?  Only 7 counties went for Obama and they’re scattered throughout the state.  

This lead to my second map:

The 11 counties entirely contained in the 2nd (green) district went for Obama by just over 2000 votes.  Once you include the connective strips, it probably flips to McCain, but not by very much. With precinct data I’m sure it would be possible to create something similar that actually went Dem in 2008.

I wouldn’t actually recommend such a map.  Not only does it strengthen McKinley, it puts Capito Moore in the intended D second district and Rahall and his Beckley base in the now more Republican third. Nevertheless, I thought it an interesting experiment.

Now that it’s 2011, the redistricting games will soon begin in earnest, with more detailed Census data expected in February or March and some states holding spring legislative sessions to deal with drawing new maps. Long ago I planned to do state-by-state rundowns of the redistricting process as soon as 2010 election results and Census reapportionment were clear. Now that time has arrived, and I’ll go alphabetically, starting with Alabama, Arizona, and Arkansas.

The rest below the fold…

Alabama

Districts: 7

Who’s in charge? Republicans

Is that important? No

Don’t expect too much drama in Alabama, as Republicans seek an incumbent protection map that ensures no Democrat getting elected in the 2nd (represented by Martha Roby) or 3rd (Mike Rogers). The 7th remains a VRA-protected black-majority district, and the only Democratic stronghold in the state.

Arizona

Districts: 9, up from 8 in 2002

Who’s in charge? Nonpartisan commission

Is that important? Oh, yes

Whenever a nonpartisan commission is involved, most (but not all) bets are off. Both Hispanic-majority VRA districts — the 4th, represented by Ed Pastor, and Raul Grijalva’s 7th — will have to be kept majority-minority, and the weird lines in northern Arizona separating the Hopi (in Trent Franks’ 2nd) from the Navajo (in Paul Gosar’s 1st) will remain. But the commission is under no obligation to protect incumbents, and that goes for Gosar, Grijalva, Giffords, Quayle, Schweikert, and anyone else who may face trouble in the next decade. In any case, most observers predict a new GOP seat in the Phoenix area, since Democratic areas are sufficiently concentrated in the 4th and much of the state’s population growth has occurred in conservative suburban Maricopa County.

My prediction: Republicans +1, all things being equal. Multiple incumbent defeats are, however, very possible depending on the new lines.

Arkansas

Districts: 4

Who’s in charge? Democrats

Is that important? Probably not

While Democrats have the redistricting trifecta in Arkansas as they did not in 2002, I cannot imagine them exploiting it particularly well. The trends in this state are as plain as the nose on your face, and Democrats know from rising GOP fortunes both within the Natural State and within all its neighboring states that their days in power are numbered. If anything, they may attempt to strengthen Mike Ross’ 4th District, the only blue seat, but I don’t see them working to dislodge Tim Griffin or Rick Crawford, both of whom represent districts that just ten years ago were considered reliably and ancestrally Democratic. It’s not easy being a Democrat in the South, particularly not the slow-growing Old South consisting of Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, et al.

In the next edition: California, Colorado, and Connecticut.

If Democrats are to regain the majority in the House in 2012, these are the seats they must target:

Republican-held seats:

AK-AL: Don Young

AZ-1: Paul Gosar

AZ-3: Ben Quayle

AZ-5: David Schwiekert

AR-1: Rick Crawford

AR-2: Tim Griffin

CA-3: Dan Lungren

CA-4: Tom McClintock

CA-44: Ken Calvert

CA-45: Mary Bono Mack

CA-48: John Campbell

CA-50: Brian Bilbray

CO-4: Cory Gardner

FL-12: Dennis Ross

FL-13: Vern Buchanan

FL-22: Allen West

FL-24: Sandy Adams

FL-25: David Rivera

IL-8: Joe Walsh

IL-10: Bob Dold

IL-11: Adam Kinzinger

IL-13: Judy Biggert

IL-14: Randy Hultgren

IL-17: Bobby Schilling

IN-8: Larry Bucshon

IA-4: Tom Latham

MI-7: Tim Walberg

MN-8: Chip Craavack

NE-2: Lee Terry

NV-2: Dean Heller

NV-3: Joe Heck

NH-1: Frank Guinta

NH-2: Charlie Bass

NJ-2: Frank LoBiondo

NJ-3: Jon Runyan

NJ-4: Chris Smith

NJ-5: Scott Garrett

NJ-7: Leonard Lance

NM-2: Steve Pearce

NY-3: Peter King

NY-13: Mike Grimm

NY-19: Nan Hayworth

NY-25: Ann Marie Buerkle

NY-29: Thomas Reed

NC-2: Renee Ellmers

OH-1: Steve Chabot

OH-2: Jean Schmidt

OH-3: Mike Turner

OH-6: Bill Johnson

OH-12: Pat Tiberi

OH-14: Steve LaTourette

OH-15: Steve Stivers

PA-7: Pat Meehan

PA-8: Mike Fitzpatrick

PA-11: Lou Barletta

PA-15: Charlie Dent

TX-23: Francisco Canceso

TX-27: R. Blake Farenthold

WI-7: Sean Duffy

WI-8: Reid Ribble