Tag: Senate rankings

September was an awful month for the GOP: John Warner and Hagel retired, Shaheen and Mark Warner jumped in for Democrats… October started much the same way, as New Mexico’s Pete Domenici announced he would not run for re-election, opening up yet another very vulnerable seat. But Democrats then ran into a bad patch of their own that culminated in the disastrous news that Bob Kerrey would not run in Nebraska. That by itself made a race that was leaning towards Democrats become a likely hold for Republicans. Meanwhile, the shuffle in New Mexico has still not been resolved, with Democrats scrambling to find a strong candidate.

That Nebraska and New Mexico have dominated Senate news in the past month is obvious in these new rankings: New Mexico rose from the 11th to 4th, while Nebraska collapsed from 4th to 13th (Reminder: Races are organized in order of vulnerability, so that the first ranked race is the most likely to turn-over). But there was some other movement: The departure of Tom Davis from the Virginia Senate race solidified the contest’s number one ranking, while Democrats are significantly more upbeat this month about their chances in Kentucky and even in North Carolina. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (KY) should be worried at the Democratic determination to avenge Tom Dashle’s 2004 loss and target him for defeat.

The Senate situation is still very fluid with more retirement and recruitment rumors floating around, so that a lot of things could still change in the coming months. But an increasing number of races are settling down, so that we are starting to get a clearer idea of which states are likely to be hotly contested.

Outlook: Democratic pick-up 4-7 Senate seats.

Prediction: Democrats pick-up a net 5 seats, for a 56-41 majority.

Full rankings are available here, on Campaign Diaries. The lean take-over and toss-up seats are listed here.

Likely Takeover (1 Republican seat, 0 Democratic seats)

1. Virginia (Open seat; Previous Ranking: 1)

A month after Virginia rose to the top of these rankings, it appears to have permanently secured its place as the most vulnerable seat of the 2008 cycle. The Republicans shot themselves in the foot when their Central Committee voted to choose the party’s nominee at a party convention rather than in a primary. As a result, Rep. Tom Davis, who had been preparing to run for Senate for years, decided to stay out of the race. His moderate profile would have made a win in a party convention very difficult considering the more conservative candidacy of former Governor Jim Gilmore. And if the Republicans had one hope to make this race competitive next year, it was that Davis would be able to pick-up votes in his base of Northern Virginia, thus cutting the margins in the bluest region of the state. Polls continue to show Warner has a strong edge against Gilmore, and that cannot be accounted by name recognition as both men are well-known statewide.

Lean Takeover (2 Republican Seats, 0 Democratic Seats)

2. New Hampshire (Incumbent: John Sununu; Previous ranking: 2)

Former Governor Shaheen continues to be the worst nightmare for Senator John Sununu. Polls this past month confirmed that Shaheen was looking strong and was favored against the man who beat her five years ago. Sununu is certainly not out of it though; he mounted a very strong campaign in 2002, defeating the incumbent senator in the primary and the incumbent governor in the general election. Republicans will at least try to defend the seat, and they could definitely narrow the margin. But New Hampshire’s Democratic turn in 2006 was so strong that the GOP is unlikely to easily overcome it. They might choose to focus their attention to reclaiming at least one of the House seats.

3. Colorado (Open; Previous ranking: 3)

Colorado is one of the quietest top-tier races, mostly of how early Senator Allard announced his retirement. Both parties settled on a candidate early, and primaries will not be particularly contested. Democrats are running Rep. Udall, and Republicans are running former Rep. Shaffer. In the past month, the second poll of the race was released and showed a tie between the two candidates — though it had a very high undecided rate. And middle-of-the-road voters are precisely those that broke Democratic in 2004 and 2006. Democrats picked up a Senator’s seat, the governorship and two House seats in two cycles, and there is no reason to think that Colorado independents are moving back in the Republican column. Udall is favored to pull away ride this blue trend across the finish line, though the race could certainly remain tight to the end.

Toss-up (4 R, 1 D)

4. New Mexico (Incumbent: Pete Domenici; Last Ranking: 11)

New Mexico has been the big story of October. Pete Domenici announced a surprise retirement at the beginning of the month, setting off much movement among state officials. New Mexico is a swing state in most elections, and politicians from both parties see this as a major opening. On the Republican side, the two major candidates are Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce, two of the three House representatives from New Mexico. Wilson is supposed to be more moderate than Pearce, which has enabled her to survive cycle after cycle in her Democratic-leaning district (she won by 800 votes in 2006). Wilson is lining up more institutional support, but polls have shown Pearce is running stronger in the general election. The main factor against Wilson is her involvement in the attorney firing scandal — that could hurt her in the primary, but especially in the general election.

On the Democratic side, the big question is whether Rep. Tom Udall will run after all. He ruled it out very quickly weeks ago, but he has been reconsidering in recent days, likely due to intense lobbying from the DSCC. All indications are that he will indeed jump in. If he does, he will start off slightly favored in the general election against either Wilson or Pearce. He has been elected statewide before (he was a two-term Attorney General), and he is a very popular figure. But he would first have to overcome a primary. Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez, very much disliked by progressives, is also running. Chavez would stay very competitive in the general election, though he would certainly not start off favored.

5. Louisiana (Incumbent: Mary Landrieu; Last Ranking: 6)

Republicans are feeling better about this race after Bobby Jindal’s blowout victory in the governor’s race last month. Granted, Jindal was not facing any significant opposition from Democrats, but his first-round triumph with 54% was nonetheless impressive. Louisiana was trending Republican even before Katrina hit, but Republicans are quite confident that Landrieu has lost much of her base because of hurricane migrations and that newly-turned-Republican state Treasurer John Kennedy will end up the victor.

However, the Republican case should not be overstated. Mitch Landrieu, Senator Landrieu’s brother, overwhelmingly won his re-election race as Lieutenant Governor the same day as Jindal’s victory. Granted, he was not facing much opposition either, but Democrats are not out in the state, and the Landrieu family name still carries some weight in the state.

6. Minnesota (Incumbent: Norm Coleman; Last Ranking: 5)

Just like in Colorado, the field has been set long ago in Minnesotta, which means that the race has been mostly quiet. Coleman and his challengers Al Franken and Mike Ciresi are all busy raising money — lots of it. Coleman also made news recently by endorsing Giuliani in the presidential primary, not that that will have a major impact on his senatorial race. Some Democrats still worry that Franken will not be very strong in the general election, though much stranger things have happened in American politics and many reports have emphasized how well Franken has been able to transition from comedian to politician. It is strange, however, that the DSCC has not pressured more politically experienced Democrats who could potentially be stronger into running.

7. Oregon (Incumbent: Gordon Smith; Last Ranking: 8)

Democrats are confident that Gordon Smith is vulnerable, though they did not convince their top-tier candidates to jump in the race. Ducking it out in the primary are House Speaker Jeff Merkley and Steve Novick, with the former favored by the establishment. Democrats they have to weaken Smith early on, especially considering the large amounts of money the incumbent has been raising. Smith’s main vulnerability is the national anti-GOP environment, and Dems are trying to challenge the image of Smith as a moderate politician. Merkley recently blasted Smith for voting to confirm federal Court of Appeals nominee Leslie Southwick whose nomination was very controversial, especially on the basis of Soultwick’s racial insensitivity.

It’s the first of the month — so it’s time to update our Senate rankings.

It has been obvious for months that the 2008 Senate cycle would favor Democrats. Even before taking into account the anti-GOP national mood that allowed Democrats to prevail in every close Senate race in 2006 but Tennessee, the raw numbers tell the story: the GOP is defending 23 seats (since WY now has two seats to fill this cycle), and the Dems only 12. Add to this the continually deteriorating atmosphere for Republicans, and you get poor fundraising for the NRSC, recruitment failures, and pessimist Republican operatives. The DSCC has been moving aggressively to press its advantage and to expand the playing field to new states. For now, NRSC Chairman Ensign is doing an even worst job than Sen. Dole did in 2005-2006. His fundraising is even worse, and he has failed to recruit top-tier Republican challengers – something Dole had at least done a good job at (Kean in NJ and Steele in MD, who could both have won in an other election cycle).

The rankings reflect this state of affair. The races are ranked from most vulnerable to take-over to safest to the incumbent party – and the top 6 seats are Republican. In fact, there are only 2 Democratic seats (Louisiana and South Dakota) in this list of 15 races! The WaPo quotes a GOP pollster as saying, “It’s always darkest right before you get clobbered over the head with a pipe wrench. But then it actually does get darker.”

It is now too late for Republicans to reverse the situation – their endangered seats can no longer be made safe – but they can still hope to save face if they expand the playing field a bit: Democratic seats in Iowa and Montana have the potential of being competitive, but Republicans have barely made a move to challenge them yet. But this is one of the most important challenges facing the GOP in 2008: It is playing defense in so many states it can afford neither the time nor the money to go on the offensive against Democratic incumbents to at least test their vulnerability, and the NRSC is likely to settle on only challenging Landrieu in Louisiana.

Outlook: Democratic pick-up of 3-6 seats

Prediction: Democrats pick-up a net 5 seats, for a 56-44 majority.

The top 6 is after the jump. Read full rankings here, on Campaign Diaries.

Lean Takeover (3 Republican Seats, 0 Democratic Seats)

1. New Hampshire (Incumbent: Senator Sununu)

The Pennsylvania of the 2008 cycle. Sen. Sununu, preparing for his first re-election race, finds himself in a huge hole. If former Governor Shaheen enters the race in September (there hasn’t been much news from her since Robert Novak reported a few months back that her husband was saying there was a 70% she would run), she will start with a double-digit lead. A few polls already released have her 20% ahead. Casey was in a similar position against then Senator Santorum starting in the summer of 2005 – and he never looked back.

New Hampshire’s monumental swing to the Democrats in 2006 (they pulled two upsets to grab both the House seats and posted huge gains in the state house and in the state senate to take control of both) makes it that much harder for Sununu to hold on in a state that is clearly trending blue. And it also guarantees that the race stays competitive even if Shaheen takes a pass. The race will then undoubtedly be much closer, but the Democrats have other candidates that would make Sununu sweat it out. There are three candidates vying for the Democratic nod for now: Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand, Katrina Swett and Jay Buckey. Swett has been painted by the netroots as a Lieberman-type moderate (she did support Lieberman’s independant campaign in 06) who has to be stopped at all costs in the primary, so things could get ugly pretty fast.

The safest bet is that they will all withdraw if Shaheen gets in, but they seem to be increasingly annoyed at the way they are being treated, so some of them might end up staying in. They were in particular annoyed at a DSCC release in early August that argued for the competitiveness of the NH race by touting Shaheen’s candidacy, but there were no mention of the other candidates.

2. Colorado (Open)

Senator Allard had come from behind to win re-election in 2002. But he clearly did not relish the thought of another close election, and he chose to call it quits early in the cycle. Colorado is the only open senate seat for now, and is on every Democrat’s target list. The Democratic field has quickly unified behind Rep. Udall, who has been preparing to run for years now. He has been raising a lot of money, and hoping to capitalize on the state’s blue trend: Salazar’s victory in 2004, two House seats picked-up in 2004 and 2006 and the 2006 take-over of the governorship.

Udall seemed to have closed the deal a few months ago when the Republican front-runner suddenly withdrew, leaving the Republicans without a strong candidate. But they quickly found former Rep. Bob Shaffer, who lost the 2004 Senate Republican primary. Shaffer is strongly conservative, and the Democrats will paint him as too far to the right. But Republicans will strike right back, charging Udall is too liberal for the state (it is true that Udall represents one of the more Democratic districts in the state, and that his voting record has put him in the liberal wing of the House).

The race has not been particularly eventful for now – except for recent allegations that Shaffer has engaged in some unethical conduct, a story to be followed for sure.

3. Virginia (Open seat)

Sen. John Warner announced on Friday, August 31st that he will not run for a six-term. Virginia thus became a huge opportunity for Democrats. But to capitalize on the state’s recent move towards the Democratic Party (, the Democrats need popular former Governor Mark Warner to jump in the race for the Democrats. This would make it very difficult for Republicans to keep the seat.

Yes, Virginia remains a Republican state – and the GOP nominee will be strongly favored in the presidential election. But the Democrats are on a roll in the state with the back-to-back victories of Gov. Kaine in 2005 and Sen. Webb in 2006. And Mark Warner left office immensely popular, which probably is what got Kaine elected in the first place. To make matters worse, the Republicans are likely to break in a bitter fight, with conservatives already lining up behind former Governor (and brief presidential candidate) Gilmore to block Rep. Tom Davis, a moderate Republican who has been raising a lot of money (and who was all but endorsed today by John Warner).

This would not, however, be a blowout for Democrats. Virginia is still a Republican state – and the increased turnout of a presidential year would guarantee that the race stays close. Also, if the Republican candidate is Davis, he could neutralize some of the Democratic advantage in Fairfax, since he represents the Northern part of the state in Congress. And if Mark Warner takes a pass (and he certainly could, either because he wants to run for Governor again in 2009 or because he wants to stay in contention to be the vice-presidential pick next summer), Republicans would be once again favored to hold on to this seat.

Toss-up (3 R, 1 D)

4. Oregon (Incumbent: Gordon Smith)

Gordon Smith has known he has a target on his back for a while now, and he has taken steps accordingly. He has been the first Republican Senator to break with Bush on the War – but is that too little too late? Like all Republican defectors, Smith has never voted against the Administration on war-related issues, and Democrats are poised to use this to attack him. Oregon is a blue state – albeit by the smallest of margins – and the Democrat will benefit from presidential coattails. Until recently, Democrats did not have a candidate, as their top choices passed on the race one after the other. But they suddenly got two! The favorite is shaping to be Jeff Merkley, the Speaker of the Oregon House – widely credited for organizing the Democratic take-over of that chamber last year, and for going forward with a progressive agenda since then.

5. Maine (Incumbent: Susan Collins)

If New Hampshire is this cycle’s Pennsylvania, Maine could be its Rhode Island. A popular Republican incumbent in a very blue state facing a Democrat who does his best to tie him to the Bush Administration and the Iraq War. Olympia Snowe got a pass in 2006, but Sen. Susan Collins is getting no such thing. Rep. Tom Allen has already started running against her, and the race is heating up.

But Collins is no Chaffee. Chaffee committed mistake after mistake, falling behind early in the fall of 2006. He also faced a significant challenge on the Right, only surviving his primary 54% to 46%. Collins faces no such hurdle, and has already set her sight on Allen. Democratic operatives have realized how hard it will to drive Collins down, and it is no coincidence that the blogosphere is going after her the hardest: DailyKos is pouncing Collins for a seemingly minor controversy over her demand that Allen stop sending people to film her, and state papers are jumping in the fray – mostly against Collins.

6. Minnesota (Incumbent: Norm Coleman)

Yes, Al Franken appears to be for real. He has raised millions of dollars, and is attacking Senator Coleman from all directions. But he will first have to survive the primary against very wealthy businessman Mike Ciresi, who is willing to spend his own money to win the race. The big question for now is whether Al Franken is electable – the answer could very well be that this is the state that made Jesse Ventura governor. Coleman is definitely vulnerable, and early polls show him winning against Franken and Ciresi by about 7%. The tragic end of the 2002 campaign – in which Coleman defeated Mondale after Senator Wellstone’s late October death – has made this seat a top Democratic target for five years now.

Read the rest of the rankings – all the way to number 20 – here, at Campaign Diaries!