SSP Daily Digest: 10/22 (Afternoon Edition)

KY-Sen: The Beltway chattering class seems to have either moved on from “Aqua Buddha,” or taken it as a given that it just backfired on Jack Conway. Josh Green at the Atlantic does some actual, y’know, reporting on what’s happening on the ground, though, and finds that the ad (and its rebuttal), and their aftermath, are still completely driving the conversation in Kentucky. Local GOP pols still seem to think that Rand Paul will squeak by in the end, but it’s thrown him deeply off message and the refusal to debate again doesn’t look good on him. (UPDATE: Actually, Greg Sargent just reported that the Conway camp is taking down the Aqua Buddha ad. To clarify “taking down,” though, this was a planned move, as it reached the end of its original run, to be replaced by this sales tax ad.)

PA-Sen: Barack Obama will be making a four-state swing through the east coast and midwest over the weekend prior to the election; one of the stopping spots will be Philadelphia, where he’ll be doing a canvassing event. He’ll also be doing rallies in Chicago, Cleveland, and Bridgeport, Connecticut (indicating they’re still leaving nothing to chance with Richard Blumenthal).

CA-Gov: Meg Whitman breaking self-funding records has become something of a dog-bites-man story around here, but one more for old times sake: she spent $23 million in the first half of October, bringing her all-cycle total to $163 million. Jerry Brown, by contrast, spent $14.6 million in that period, bringing his all-cycle spending to $25 million.

CO-Gov: I doubt this is much of a game-changer, but it may help flip a few more Colorado Springs area votes in Tom Tancredo’s direction (if there were any Dan Maes supporters left there). Rep. Doug Lamborn became perhaps the most prominent elected Republican in Colorado to publicly come out in support of Tancredo, rather than Maes.

MN-Gov: The RGA must be seeing something the polls aren’t telling them, because they’re still fighting till the end in Minnesota. (Of course, if one committee has money to throw at unlikely races and see what sticks, it’s the RGA.) They just gave $1 million to third party group Minnesota Future to run more anti-Mark Dayton (and probably anti-Tom Horner) ads. (You may remember Minnesota Future from the whole Target contribution controversy. Interestingly, Hubbard Broadcasting, owner of local TV station KSTP, also was just identified as having given $25K to Minnesota Future. Y’know, because they’re part of that liberal lamestream media.)

FL-24: And here I’d thought we’d dodged something of a bullet when Karen Diebel got sent packing to spent more time guarding her swimming pool. Sandy Adams, who seems likely to be the next Representative for the Space Coast, has come out in favor of the “biblical teachings” rather than the theory of evolution. I look forward to hearing her proposals for a faith-based space program next.

ID-01: The Tea Party Express finally endorsed Raul Labrador in the 1st. However, that comes only after they tried to endorse Democratic incumbent Walt Minnick as their token Dem fig-leaf and he rejected the endorsement (over racist statements by one of their, at the time, key members).

Early voting: Ohio Democrats are pointing to an edge in early voting, where they’re leading 44 percent to 34 percent for Republicans in votes cast so far. The Republicans are claiming the edge after three days of early voting in Florida, with a 148,000 vote edge, although Dems pointed out that was about where the numbers were in the 2006 election.

Redistricting: Here’s a good counterpoint to several articles that have shrugged off the possible large Republican advantage on the redistricting front coming out of this election, one that actually looks at the actual number of House seats that are likely to be influenced. Extrapolating likely control of state governorships and legislatures, the GOP will have “untrammeled” control over 125 House seats while Dems will control only 62, a worse outcome than 1990 or 2000. (43 are in commission-based states or at-large states, with 205 drawn by divided governments.)

Chamber of Commerce: This article was been making the rounds, but it’s a must-read if you haven’t already done so and you’re interested in the “dark money” that’s swamping the transparent money, this cycle more than ever. The NYT digs into what corporations are using the national Chamber of Commerce as a pass-through for their contributions, including Prudential, Dow Chemical, and Dutch insurer Aegon.

SSP TV:

AZ-Sen: This looks like John McCain’s last ad, as it’s a soft-focus closing argument type of spot

CO-Sen: The League of Conservation Voters hits Ken Buck on environmental issues

DE-Sen: Here’s the first Chris Coons ad to take on Christine O’Donnell directly, saying she lives in the “Twilight Zone”

NV-Sen: Harry Reid rolls out endorsements from various local business leaders in his newest ad

WA-Sen: Waiting until the end to go after Dino Rossi for his anti-abortion stance seems to be tradition now, in order to swing any last-minute moderate women who haven’t decided, and the DSCC piles on

HI-Gov: Barack Obama, fresh off his Colleen Hanabusa spot, also cuts an ad touting Neil Abercrombie

RI-Gov: The DGA keeps pounding on Lincoln Chafee over the tax hikes he’d like (I’ve also heard the RGA is buying an ad here on behalf of John Robitaille, though I haven’t seen a link)

WV-03: Ewwww… Spike Maynard plays the terrorist card against Arab-American Rep. Nick Rahall

MoveOn: MoveOn seems to have saved their powder for one huge blast at the end, running ads in eight Senate races and 20 House races (here’s their WI-08 ad), helping only Dems who voted in favor of HCR

Sierra Club: The Sierra Club is out with ads boosting Democratic incumbents in FL-22, MI-07, and AZ-08

60+ Assoc.: The AARP’s evil doppelganger is running two spots, a two-fer in Arizona hitting both Raul Grijalva and Gabby Giffords, and… here’s a new one… Solomon Ortiz in TX-27

Rasmussen:

MN-Gov: Mark Dayton (D) 44%, Tom Emmer (R) 41%, Tom Horner (I) 10%

NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo (D) 51%, Carl Paladino (R) 37%

NY-Sen: Charles Schumer (D-inc) 59%, Jay Townsend (R) 31%

SD-AL: Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-inc) 44%, Kristi Noem (R) 49%

CO-05: Lamborn Primaried By Local Crank

I’m not kidding here: Doug Lamborn, freshman incumbent, is facing off against Jeff Crank, whom he defeated in the 2006 primary in this safe R district to replace retiring Joel Hefley. He’s also facing off against 2006 primary candidate ex-AF Maj. Gen. Bentley Rayburn. (Lamborn won in 2006 by consolidating the wingnut vote, helped along by the Club for Growth.) An internal poll gives the lay of the land in this race:

David Hill Research (R)/Wilson Research Stragies (R) (5/27-29, likely voters):

Doug Lamborn (R-inc.): 51

Jeff Crank (R): 27

Bentley Rayburn (R): 13

Undecided: 9

(MoE: ±4.3%)

Now I know what you’re thinking: boy, if those two ‘mainstream’ candidates could somehow combine their votes, they’d be pretty competitive with Lamborn. Turns out that Crank and Rayburn were thinking that, too. The poll was commissioned by both camps as part of their rather unusual gentleman’s agreement on who would get to go the distance against Lamborn:

Republican 5th Congressional District candidates retired Maj. Gen. Bentley Rayburn and Jeff Crank signed a do-or-die agreement last month setting the conditions under which the weaker of the two candidates would drop out of the primary race against Congressman Doug Lamborn….

They agreed to stand by the results of a poll of 400 respondents scheduled to start May 27.

They’ve run into a minor hitch, though: Rayburn is refusing to abide by the poll’s results, as the two campaigns have devolved into a battle royale over methodological minutia and paying for the poll. Even if Rayburn does fall by the wayside, this can’t be helping Crank’s chances.

The Colorado primary is Aug. 12.

CO-05: Lamborn’s Threatens “Consequences” for Critical Couple

A Republican congressman leaving threatening voice mails for a couple who had backed a GOP rival because they highlighted the money he took from the gambling industry? Let me guess, is he a member of the Club for Growth? Ding ding! Rep. Doug Lamborn (R-CO-05) is a “growth” all right… one that ought to be surgically removed from the body politic in the next congressional election.

Below the flip, try to figure out whether or not he returned the money.

Federal records show that Lamborn received a $1,000 check Jan. 30, 2007, from the IGT PAC. Records also show receipt of $500 from Murphy last summer.

Lamborn said he has returned both contributions, but he could not say when that was done.

Nancy Brown, a spokeswoman for Jones Vargas, a law firm in Reno, Nev., that represents IGT, said the company’s PAC sent a $1,000 contribution to Lamborn in January. She said Lamborn returned the check, although she could not provide the date of the return.

Federal records do not show that the check was returned.

Hmmmm, sure ya did, Doug. The couple in question supported Jeff Crank, Lamborn’s top GOP rival in last year’s 6-way Republican primary, who barely lost by a margin of 27% to 25.4%. The wife worked for Crank as a scheduler for two months. Is Jeff coming back to challenge Lamborn in 2008? You bet. The district has a PVI of 15.7, however, so even with a bruising GOP primary, it will be tough for any Democrat to win – last go-round, Jay Fawcett lost by 19%. So far this district lacks any confirmed or rumored Democratic candidates, and I couldn’t find any info suggesting Fawcett would try again.

The Denver Post has the text of the messages, including this gem:

And like I said I’d rather resolve this on a Scriptural level but if you are unwilling to do that I will be forced to take other steps, which I would rather not have to do.

Race Tracker for CO-05