Hyper-partisan Democratic Texas Gerrymander

A hyper-partisan Democratic gerrymander of Texas.  Probably not VRA compliant and Texas might even have some laws against such whacked-outness.  However when drawing hyper-partisan maps I like to take “screw the other party over as much as possible and forget the law” approach.  This another full Texas map, the first I drew was before partisan data was available.

The two crowning achievements of this map are the three Democrats out of Travis County (City of Austin), which is something I posted earlier and worked to further perfect, and six Democrats out of Harris County (City of Houston).  

Every Republican seat is a major vote sink, only 4 of the 14 GOP seats are less than 70% McCain.  Which means there are 10 seats that are R+24 or higher including what would be the most Republican district in the country at R+30.

For the sake of classifying districts 59% Obama and higher are labeled as Safe D, 56-58% is Likely D and <56% is Lean D.  There is only one district that is less than 56% Obama than isn’t a GOP vote sink.

Overall this is a 22-14 Democratic Map with one district that could be won by the GOP in a wave year.  So I think the worst case scenario for the Dems would be 21-15

District 13

Obama 23%

McCain 76%

69% White, 6% Black, 22% Hispanic

The most Republican district in the state and probably the most conservative in the country.  Interestingly enough despite being a R+30 district it is 22% Hispanic.

Safe R

District 17

Obama 26%

McCain 73%

67% White, 5% Black, 26% Hispanic

A R+27 West Texas District that is 26% Hispanic.  Includes the cities of Midland, Odessa and San Angelo.

Safe R

District 19

Obama 27%

McCain 72%

67% White, 6% Black, 25% Hispanic

This is a third West Texas district that is over 20% Hispanic.  That definitely doesn’t help in this district.  Includes the cities of Abilene and Lubbock

Safe R


District 4

Obama 31%

McCain 68%

81% White, 8% Black, 8% Hispanic

North East Texas and part of Collin County

Safe R

District 5

Obama 28%

McCain 71%

76% White, 13% Black, 9% Hispanic

Tyler-Longview based district for Louie Gohmert.  Hey we got to keep the most entertaining Republicans right!

Safe R

District 8

Obama 26%

McCain 73%

81% White, 4% Black, 11% Hispanic

Includes most of the very fast growing Montgomery County.

Safe R

District 11

Obama 28%

McCain 71%

74% White, 8% Black, 14% Hispanic

This is my favorite GOP vote sink based on unattractiveness.  It gets all the Republican vote that would have ended up jeporadizing district 10, 31 and 9 if no counties were split.

Safe R

District 14

Obama 29%

McCain 70%

73% White, 6% Black, 17% Hispanic

Another GOP vote sink near Houston.  

Safe R

District 25

Obama 27%

McCain 72%

78% White, 13% Black, 8% Hispanic

East Texas GOP district.  

District 35

Obama 26%

McCain 73%

78% White, 6% Black, 11% Hispanic

Like the rest of the GOP districts, another vote sink carefully drawn.

District 16

Obama 59%

McCain 40%

24% White, 3% Black, 70% Hispanic

Most of El Paso but I also used 16 to grab some of the more Republican counties from district 23 in order to help make 23 more Democratic.

Safe D

District 23

Obama 55%

McCain 44%

27% White, 2% Black, 69% Hispanic

Shedding some of the more Republican counties and picking up part of Southern El Paso shifts this district 4 points towards the Democrats compared to it’s previous 51% Obama/48% McCain breakdown.  In 2010 Conseco beat Rodriguiz by 5 points.

Lean D

District 36

Obama 29%

McCain 70%

80% White, 2% Black, 16 Hispanic

Contains a decent amount of Lamar Smiths current district including the conservative parts of North Bexar County.

Safe R  

District 15

59% Obama

40% McCain

19% White, 1% Black, 78% Hispanic

Most of McAllen and the most Republican parts of Corpus Christi are here.  

Safe D

District 27

Obama 58%

McCain 41%

22% White, 2% Black, 74% Hispanic

Solomon Ortiz’s loss to Blake Farenthold was definitely a sign of a GOP wave.  The old district 27 was 53%/46%.  I would want to rate this district Safe D since Farenthold won by 1 point and the shift by 5 probably would have safed Ortiz, but I’d be breaking break my own rules.

Likely D

District 28

Obama 59%

McCain 41%

19% White, 3% Black, 76% Hispanic

This district shifts a few more points Democratic from his current 56%/43% district.  It was difficult to get a good image capture of this district since it is drawn like it is.

Safe D

District 20

Obama 58%

McCain 41%

30% White, 5% Black, 61% Hispanic

I tried so hard to get two 59% Obama districts in San Antonio and just couldn’t do it.  58% is really close and as much as I want to label this a safe D district I can’t since my intro says 59% will be considered a safe D district.

Likely D

District 21

Obama 58%

McCain 41%

33% White, 10% Black, 54% Hispanic

Eastern San Antonio and southern Bexar county.  

Likely D

I would have zoomed in more but that would have cut off several of the districts originating from Houston.

District 2

Obama 59%

McCain 40%

36% White, 26% Black, 33% Hispanic

Very Democratic part of North Houston and the Democratic parts of Huntsville in East Texas

Safe D

District 7

Obama 59%

McCain 40%

35% White, 24% Black, 30% Hispanic, 11% Asian

District 9

Obama 59%

McCain 41%

38% White, 27% Black, 23% Hispanic, 12% Asian

Stretches from Galveston up into Brazos County, most of the Democratic vote is in Fort Bend.  Interesting note is this district is 12% Asian

Safe D

District 18

Obama 59%

McCain 40%

39% White, 25% Black, 28% Hispanic

South and West Houston district.

Safe D

District 22

Obama 60%

McCain 40%

39% White, 32% Black, 26% Hispanic

The most Democratic district partially in Houston also includes Beaumont, Port Arthur, Hudson and Nacodoches.  

Safe D

District 29

Obama 59%

McCain 40%

29% White, 10% Black, 57% Hispanic

A good piece of Green’s current district is in the new 29, he should have no problem winning here.

Safe D

Like Houston I had to take this photo to account for the sprawly districts

District 10

Obama 60%

McCain 39%

52% White, 6% Black, 38% Hispanic

This district includes most of Lloyd Doggetts current district in South Austin and it sort of stretches all the way down into South Texas.  

Safe D

District 31

Obama 58%

McCain 40%

47% White, 24% Black, 25% Hispanic

Squeezing a third Democratic district out of Travis County was great.  This district includes parts of Travis County, Waco, Killeen, Temple, College Station

Likely D

District 33

Obama 59%

McCain 40%

67% White, 7% Black, 19% Hispanic

Most of Austin is in this district including Round Rock.

Safe D

District 3

Obama 60%

McCain 38%

39% White, 18% Black, 38% Hispanic

The most Democratic district in the state with Obama winning by a 22 point margin.  It loops around the very conservative Park Cities and Preston Hollow area of Dallas County

District 12

Obama 59%

McCain 40%

45% White, 21% Black, 29% Hispanic

Contains much of the City of Fort Worth.  I’d like to see Lon Burnam run in this one.  He’s a very liberal State Representative in Fort Worth.

Safe D

District 24

Obama 59%

McCain 40%

53% White, 18% Black, 21% Hispanic

Contains the Democratic parts of Arlington in Tarrant County and Southwest Dallas County.   The college town Denton is also roped into the district.

Safe D

District 30

Obama 60%

McCain 39%

40% White, 19% Black, 35% Hispanic

Mostly West Dallas including southern parts of the city and Democratic pieces of Collin/Denton County

Safe D

District 32

Obama 60%

McCain 39%

45% White, 28% Black, 21% Hispanic

South Dallas and some eastern Dallas suburbs including Garland.  I think Eddie-Bernice Johnson would run in this one.

Safe D

Well it happen?  No, but a Democrat can dream 🙂

5-7-6 PA Gop compromise/fair districts

I made a map with two goals. They were:

1.) Keep cities together, and if possible, counties

2.) Make the district without care for partisanship

Philadelphia is the only city in more than one cd, and only four counties have 3 or more cds in them (Allegheny, Philadelphia, Chester, and Montgomery. 4 out of 69 aint bad, considering that Philadelphia has to be.)

There is high upside here for both parties, and this is a decent compromise, although more favorable to the republicans. It comes down to if you believe 2008 or 2010 is the closer to reality.

I really only think one picture is necessary due to the nature of this exercise. If anyone wants a zoomed view, lemme know. All are under 1000 off the ideal population.

District 1 (Blue): 53% Black, 88% Obama

Entirely Philadelphia. Safe as could be. 1-0-0

District 2 (Green): 36% B, 14 Hispanic, 5 Asia, 80% O

Entirely Philadelphia. Safe as could be. 2-0-0

District 3 (Dark Magenta): 58% O

North-East Philly, and parts of Montgomery and Bucks. Leans very D. 3-0-0

District 4 (Red): 61% O

Delco and a part of montco. Likely D. 4-0-0

District 5 (Gold): 54% O

Rest of Montgomery and Bucks, plus a tiny bit of chester. Toss-up, Leans slightly R. 4-0-1

District 6 (Teal): 56% O

Bethlehem, Allentown, Easton and their counties, plus a bit of monroe. Toss-up, Leans slightly D. 4-0-2

District 7 (Dark Grey): 56% O

Scranton, Wilkes-Barre and the surrounding area. Toss-Up, Leans slightly D. 4-0-3

District 8 (Slate Blue): 53% M

A few small cities (Hazelton, Bloomsburg, Pottsville), but a lotta empty area. Likely R. 4-1-3

District 9 (Cyan): 55% O

Reading, the rest of Berks and a huge part of chester county. Pure Toss-Up 4-1-4

District 10 (Deep Pink): 56% M

Lancaster, Lebanon and space. Likely R. 4-2-4

District 11 (Chartreuse): 51% M

Harrisburg and York. Lean M. 4-3-4

District 12 (Cornflower Blue): 63% M

Not a lot going on here. Safe R. 4-4-4

District 13 (Dark Salmon): 54% M

North PA. Surprised it is this close tbqh. Likely R. 4-5-4

District 14 (Olive): 49% O (Wins by about 600 votes).

Erie. Toss-Up, Leans R. However, I think obama underperformed what a congressional D could do here so i’m counting it in the toss-up.  4-5-5

District 15 (Dark Orange): 55% M

North of Pitt. Likely R. 4-6-5

District 16 (Lime): 64% O

Pittsburgh. Safe D. 5-6-5

District 17 (Dark Slate Blue): 50% O

South of Pitt. Toss-Up, Leans R. 5-6-6

District 18 (Yellow): 56% M

The rest, includes Altoona. Likely R. 5-7-6.

Not the best either side could do, but most definitely fair. Both sides have reason to believe they could win a lot of the toss-ups. I hope the gopers believe that anyways. Well, lemme know.

12-6 GOP gerrymander of PA (updated with maps)

With Pennsylvania set to lose a congressional district in 2010, and with the GOP now in charge of the process (again), here’s what a 12-6 map might look like.  It’s quite ugly but ugliness is perhaps the only way the GOP can take a light blue state and cement a 12-6 hold on its congressional delegation!  (Bear in mind, Bush II never carried PA).  Even as is, I think a 12-6 map, eliminating just one Democratic congressman, is perhaps a dummymander.  Southeastern PA, especially, is trending away from them.  But I see no way the GOP is going to sacrifice one of their own to make a more sensible 11-7 map.

Ok, here goes… and I’ve renumbered the districts roughly west to east… can’t understand why PA, OH, FL, TX, and a few other states have district numbers that jump all over the place!


District 1 (blue): Altmire (D) OR Dahkemper (D): Erie, New Castle, Dem areas of SW PA

Obama 55, McCain 44

This is perhaps the ugliest district in the entire map, and its purpose is as a Democratic vote sink so that neighboring CD #2 becomes much safer for the GOP.  Still surprising that it isn’t all that Democratic-performing going by Obama’s vote percentage.

District 2 (green): Kelly (R)

Obama 42, McCain 57

Kelly gets a considerably safer district with the removal of Erie into CD #1.


District 3 (purple): Doyle (D)

Obama 68, McCain 31

Still a ridiculous vote sink around the Pittsburgh area.  District extends south a bit to gain some of the southern-most suburbs and thereby helps Murphy’s district become a bit redder.

District 4 (red): Murphy (R)

Obama 42, McCain 57

Republican suburbs in southern Allegany County, most Republican areas of Washington County, and almost all of now GOP-leaning Westmoreland County.  Murphy should be happy with this district.

District 5 (yellow): Thompson (R)

Obama 44, McCain 54

A more condensed version of the PA wilds district that you drive through on I-80.

District 6 (teal green): Shuster (R) vs. Critz (D)

Obama 41, McCain 58

If you were to get rid of a Democrat out of the 7, Critz is the safest one to get rid of.  The ruby-red mountains of PA drown out whatever Democratic votes Critz may be able to get out of Johnstown or Fayette/Somerset counties.  This should be safe for Shuster, unless he forgot how to campaign like Gekas in 2002.

District 7 (grey): Platts (R)

Obama 42, McCain 57

Stays largely the same.

District 8 (purple): Marino (R)

Obama 44, McCain 54

The GOP is faced with a real dilemma in NE PA in that they have 2 GOP freshmen incumbents to protect in an area that should by rights only elect one of them.  Because of this, they realistically cannot target Holden as they did in 2002.  Because of the need to give safer districts to Barletta (and, realistically, Dent – certainly if I were a GOP mapmaker I’d hedge my bets there), this district shifts south to grab all of Dauphin County.  The Democrats of Harrisburg are drowned out by the Republicans of Lycoming and other GOP counties between the two…. Best of all, while it is possible for a Democrat to win this district, Christopher Carney no longer lives in this district.


District 9 (sky blue): Barletta (R)

Obama 45, McCain 54

Through clever conceding of the most Democratic areas of his current district to Tim Holden’s neighboring 10th, this district becomes a carbon-clone of the 9.  Goes from the Republican T south to northern Berks County, but aside from swingy areas in Lackawanna and Luzerne County, this is a lean-GOP district, although it includes the home of Chris Carney, most of the district would be unfamiliar to him.

District 10 (pink): Holden (D)

Obama 61, McCain 37

This is Northeastern PA’s Democratic vote sink.  It accordingly helps out Baretta and Dent.  It helps out the latter by removing Bethlehem, the city of Dent’s 2010 challenger, and about 1/2 of Allentown, through a narrow ugly tendril southward from Carbon County.  Hoping that the part that Dent lives in is in neighboring CD 11; if not, it can easily be rectified by swapping precincts in Allentown.  From there it extends north to include all of the Democratic-rich areas of Scranton and its environs; ditto with Wilks-Barre and other Democratic areas of Luzerne.  It also includes the more Democratic eastern half or so of Schuylkill County, where Holden lives.


District 11 (neon green): Dent (R)

Obama 53, McCain 46

This district becomes a bit safer for Dent by extending north a bit along the Delaware River to Monroe, Pike, and Wayne counties.  It loses Bethlehem and part of Allentown through a narrow tendril in the 10th district.  Although Dent easily gets reelected in his district, his 2010 opponent, the mayor of Bethlehem, presented Dent with a tough race.  He now can run in a Democratic primary against Holden if he wishes.


District 12 (slate blue, I guess): Gerlach (R)

Obama 52, McCain 47

For slaving it out cycle after cycle, Gerlach gets a much safer more exurban district.  Lebanon, the rest of Berks not in CD 10, including all of Reading, which Gerlach can handle, a bit of northern Montgomery, and the northern half or so of Chester, where Gerlach is from.

District 13 (peach): Pitts (R)

Obama 47, McCain 52

Lancaster and the southern bit of Chester, where Pitts is from.  One is tempted to make this even more Democratic still to help out fellow SEPA Republicans elsewhere, but Pitts would be endangered if this district got any bluer than it is.  Indeed, if Lancaster follows Chester in becoming the next red-to-blue suburb of SE PA, I wouldn’t be surprised if Pitts retired and was replaced either with a more moderate Republican or a Democrat.

District 14 (ugly green): Meehan (R)

Obama 53, McCain 46

mostly the same as before in Delaware County, with a few more heavily-Democratic areas such as Media, the areas around Swarthmore College, and heavily black areas in Upper Darby and Lansdowne removed into Brady’s 18th.  The district extends a bit further into carefully chosen precincts in Montgomery County, with Schwartz taking the most Democratic ones.  Meehan should be fine.

District 15 (orange): Fitzpatrick (R)

Obama 52, McCain 47

Bucks County finally gets partitioned, with Bristol, the home of Murphy, and the most Democratic areas nearest Philadelphia removed into Schwartz’s 16th and replaced with more GOP areas in Montgomery County.  The district gets 2-3% more Republican than currently is the case as a result.  About the best that can be done for Fitzpatrick.

District 16 (light green): Schwartz (D)

Obama 64, McCain 35

There we have it, an effective Democratic vote sink in SEPA that helps out all of the endangered GOP congressmen surrounding it.  It carefully takes in the most Democratic areas of Montgomery and Bucks and connects the two through also taking in a large part of NE Phily.  

District 17 (dark purple): Fattah (D)

Obama 88, McCain 12

55% black, 34% white, 5% Hispanic

Largely the same as before, gaining more areas in NE Phily to equalize its population.  Black % drops but still VRA-compliant by a long way.

District 18 (yellow): Brady (D)

Obama 87, McCain 13

44% black, 30% white, 18% Hispanic

Again, largely the same as before.  Extends a bit further into Delaware County to vacuum up heavily-Democratic precincts in favor of Meehan; likewise it takes a bit more of NE Phily than it did before.  Still, it retains its position as a minority-majority VRA-complaint coalition district.

Dodging a Bullet: Oregon 3-2

As we all know, Republicans very, very narrowly fell short of taking the governorship of Oregon. Oregonians instead opted to send former Gov. John Kitzhaber back to the governor’s mansion over Republican Chris Dudley, best known for playing basketball.

Republicans also came extremely close to capturing slim majorities in both the State House and the State Senate. The State House is now evenly split, while it appears Democrats will hang onto a majority of one or two in the Senate.

If Republicans had garnered just another point in the statewide popular vote, it seems likely they would have flipped both houses of the Oregon state legislature and installed Chris Dudley as governor, giving them a trifecta in the Beaver State. As a left-leaning independent and an Oregonian expat, let me just take a moment to editorialize by way of gagging.

With redistricting coming up, Republicans could have taken control and gerrymandered Oregon, provided they could agree on a map (otherwise, Secy. Kate Brown, Oregon’s Democratic secretary of state, would have been constitutionally empowered to draw one up – which, as it is, puts considerable pressure on Republicans to compromise with Democrats). Here’s one they might have liked.

I’ve done what any self-respecting, all-powerful Republican trifecta would do, and I’ve just handed Democrats the Willamette River Valley while giving Republicans two seats in the rest of the state.

There should be little controversy about the Portland metropolitan area. The new OR-01 I’ve drawn would have been, if Republicans had won and drew this map, one of the most Democratic districts in the entire country; Rep. Blumenauer’s Republican opponent, Delia Lopez, picked up three percent of the vote in the portion of Multnomah County in Blumenauer’s district, currently OR-03. Note: I spent so much time playing around with the district lines that some of the district numbers are mixed up.

OR-01 here includes some of the most liberal parts of Clackamas County, including Milwaukee. Rep. Blumenauer would thrive here, obviously.

As for OR-05, it includes most of Portland’s western suburbs, as well as some of the most swingy parts of Clackamas County. It’d probably be a Democratic district, but an Oregonian answer to Reps. Reichert or Tiberi might be able to flip it in a good year.

I originally had OR-05 reaching up into Columbia County to encompass St. Helens and Scappoose, but I decided against it. They were instead awarded to OR-04, which thus holds the entire Oregon Coast. OR-04 also reaches inland to western Washington, Yamhill, and Polk counties. It’s almost entirely rural, and despite Astoria and a few other lean Democratic cities in northwestern Oregon, it would be safely Republican.

The reason OR-04 would be safely Republican is simple: Eugene has been gerrymandered into a district with the lean Democratic cities of the Willamette River Valley, including the capital of Salem and its suburbs. Conservative Albany is left to OR-04. Because of the way OR-03 is drawn, it would be a pretty safe Democratic district, especially considering the surging Latino population in and around Salem.

OR-02, currently Rep. Walden’s district, remains safely Republican, soaking up the swingy population centers of Bend, Medford, Ashland, and Hood River with the entirety of hard-right eastern Oregon, as well as most of fairly conservative central and southern Oregon.

In plain speech, OR-02 and OR-04 would be safely Republican, while OR-01, OR-03, and OR-05 would be Democratic. Definitely a good thing Republicans didn’t manage to take over Salem this year.

BONUS: Just for kicks, here’s a picture of the way I originally gerrymandered OR-03:

I decided Bend would be fine in OR-02 and it would be best to keep the district more compact and inclusive of the Salem suburbs, not just the I-5 corridor down the Willamette River Valley. The way this district is drawn would force OR-03 to spill into Clackamas County. While it’s funny (and hideous), I decided it wasn’t practical.

A GOP Gerrymander of Pennsylvania

Since the Republicans already control Pennsylvania’s state senate, and they have a decent shot at picking up the trifecta in 2010, I decided to create a map which should yield at least 13, and possibly 14, Republicans. Although not every district is maintained in its present form, every Republican incumbent has at least one district that has some portion of their base. In the process, I completely demolished Holden’s district, and gave most Democratic incumbents plenty of unfamiliar areas to deal with. I did not split any municipalities except when creating majority-minority districts, and the highest deviation from the mean in terms of population is 855.

Entire State:

Metro Philadelphia:

Districts are numbered in the order that they were created, since Pennsylvania’s current numbering system makes no sense anyway.

PA-1 (Blue in Metro Philly):

This district is 51% black and effectively serves as a votesink in North Philly, taking in pretty much all of the black and Hispanic areas and expanding north to pick up Cheltenham and Abingdon in MontCo, which are very heavily D as well. Chaka Fattah would run here.

PA-2 (Green in Metro Philly):

This one would most likely be Bob Brady’s district. It’s 49% black in order to maintain the status quo with the VRA, but at the same time pick up as many black voters as possible (see the arm that goes into Chester). The most Democratic parts of the Main Line also get put in here, such as Lower Merion, Haverford and Radnor (the home of Villanova).

PA-3 (Deep Purple):

It’s always sunny in this district, which was created with one goal in mind: link together all of Philly’s white working class areas, in the hopes (for the GOP) of a demographic avalanche. The MontCo parts of this district lean Democratic, and it’s more than possible for a Democrat to win here, but the GOP has a better chance in the long-term than in any of the present-day suburban districts, all of which seem to be trending away from them. (If this district does elect a Democrat, there will still only be five in the state, which the Republicans would definitely accept.)

PA-4 (Red):

To my knowledge, it’s tradition of some sort to keep all of Bucks County in the same district, which benefits the Republicans as Obama did the worst here out of all the suburban counties (even Chester). All I’ve done is just attach some of the more reflexively GOP rural areas west of Allentown, which is just about all that can be done if you don’t split municipalities.

PA-5 (Mustard Yellow):

This district is what’s left of the current PA-13 after all of the most D parts in southern Montgomery are taken out and very conservative areas in Berks (away from Reading) and Lebanon are added. With the new additions and removal of just about everything south-east of Norristown, it’s tough to imagine the Democrats holding this one.

PA-6 (Teal):

This district was designed with one of two scenarios in mind: if Pat Meehan wins in November, he would run in this new district – if he can win in the current PA-7, adding rural York County would make him safe – and Platts would run in the new PA-12 which contains Harrisburg suburbs that he’s represented before, while if Meehan loses, the somewhat sane Platts can afford to take on a bit of DelCo, which isn’t that Democratic anyway with the removal of Chester and the Main Line. Either way, it’s pretty safe Republican.

PA-7 (Gray):

This is Gerlach’s district, assuming he survives. He’s won before with a district containing Reading, Lower Merion and various other Democratic hotbeds, so he should probably keep overperforming and romp home in a district that contains too much Lancaster for the Dems to realistically compete in. (If Gerlach loses, Pitts can run here if he wants, but he might prefer my new PA-8.)

PA-8 (Indigo):

In order to neutralize the cities of Lancaster and York, which have more minorities and are more Democratic than one might first think, I attached them to some of the most uniformly GOP turf in the state: Franklin and Adams Counties and the rural areas of Cumberland. Considering those areas vote 70%+ for Republican candidates year in and year out, and they comprise about half of the district, I’d call this safe for the GOP.

PA-9 (Light Blue):

This district was created with Charlie Dent in mind, and considering the fact that he has survived in a district that Kerry won and Obama cleaned up in, getting one like this would be a dream for him. He is relieved of Allentown and Bethlehem and instead gets places like Susquehanna and Bradford Counties that are still very Republican. (If Dent loses this year, this district would be doable for the Dems to hold, but it would be a lot tougher than the current PA-15.)

PA-10 (Pink):

Well, northeastern PA has gotten Democratic enough that one safe D votesink is pretty much inevitable in a GOP map, and I made that seat about as safe (and as convoluted) as possible. Allentown, Bethlehem, the most Democratic parts of the Poconos, Scranton, Wilkes-Barre and all of the blue towns in between go into this district, and what comes out is something that vaguely resembles the letter E that Obama might have cleared 60%, if not 65%, in. Since Chris Carney seems to be the Northeast PA Dem most likely to win (I know, I can’t believe it either), I’ll provisionally award the seat to him, but if both him and Kanjorski survive, the two would probably fight over it.

PA-11 (Lime):

I already neutralized Lancaster and York, and I’ll do the same to Reading, which is too Democratic to go in any of the Philly suburban districts in a GOP map. If Holden ran anywhere, it would probably be here, as this district contains most of his Schuylkill base. However, it also contains parts of the Susquehanna Valley that are not in his district and have few Dems outside of Lewisburg (Bucknell) and Selinsgrove (Susquehanna). If Barletta wins, he would have the option of running here (this district contains Columbia County, which is part of the current PA-11, and his home in Hazleton is just a few miles away and can easily be drawn in). Otherwise, it’s up for grabs to whichever local officeholder wants it.

PA-12 (Periwinkle):

The Harrisburg area isn’t that Democratic in the grand scheme of things, and linking it to astonishingly GOP areas to the west (Fulton, Huntingdon, Mifflin, Juniata and Perry are all 60%+ McCain and make up about half of the district) does no favours for the Democrats. Neither does Altoona, which McCain actually won. State College is in this district as well, but it’s too small to make a difference by itself. I guess Holden could run here, but once again he’s facing areas that he’s never represented before. (If Platts doesn’t run here, Shuster will.)

PA-13 (Clay):

Instead of just sitting there in the Northern Tier taking up space, I decided to put the old PA-5 to some good use, having it eat some of Holden’s district and some of the State College area. The swing areas of the Northern Tier (Lock Haven, Elk County) are just too badly outnumbered by the GOP rural areas and wilderness for a Democrat to win this district, with counties like Warren, McKean, Potter and Tioga going pretty heavily for the GOP in just about every election.

PA-14 (Green-Brown):

A rare instance in which my numbering scheme overlaps with the scheme already in place, this district grabs just about every Democrat from the Pittsburgh area that I could get while maintaining equal population. So, basically, just like the current PA-14.

PA-15 (Orange):

This would be Dahlkemper’s district, which starts in Erie and heads on over to heavily Republican Blair County, minus Altoona. The connecting areas, Venango, Clarion and Indiana Counties, also are quite Republican, and are new to Dahlkemper so she would have to introduce herself to her district all over again.

PA-16 (Nuclear Waste Green):

This would be Altmire’s district. As with Dahlkemper, I gave him a whole lot more Republicans who previously weren’t in his district (such as those in Butler County, which is about as red as a flaming brick being eaten by a fire truck).

PA-17 (Navy Blue):

I’m guessing Tim Murphy could run in this district in which McCain won every county fragment. Not much more to say about it, though.

PA-18 (Canary Yellow):

This distrct would probably be Critz’s, although I have given him almost all of GOP Westmoreland County, plus all of even more GOP Somerset and Bedford. (By creating the Western PA districts how I did, I completely broke up the Murthamander.) Shuster would run here if all other options are taken.

So there you have it. A map of a state which Obama won by 10% in which a maximum 14 of 18 representatives are Republicans.

By what margin will Bob Shamansky win?

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UPDATED WITH COLORS Texas GOP Gerrymander: Protecting the Delaymander!!

With Texas looking to gain four seats after the Census, I decided to gerrymander Texas to protect the current twenty Republican representatives. In my plan, I try to create a realistic-looking map and I try to follow the VRA. In my opinion, there will need to be at least two, maybe three new VRA-protected Hispanic-majority seats. My plan draws two, but they’re not slam-dunks for Democrats, unless Arizona’s “papers, please” law mobilizes Hispanics to actually, well, vote.  Republicans will pick up two of the new seats for sure, and probably the third.

With the GOP likely in control of the House, definitely the Senate, a quite possibly the governor’s mansion, this is what I think the trifecta might do.

In the end, only two white Democrats should survive this plan, unless Gene Green gets primaried by an ambitious Hispanic politician. Also, Ciro Rodriguez-who doesn’t even live there in the 23rd anymore-gets a pretty tough district.

In the end, this plan should result in a 26-10 Republican majority, while substantially protecting all Republican incumbents. At the end of the decade, though, this could change. The ideal population numbers are all within a 1000, meaning the districts can change a little to get to the ideal number, 0. There is 3,963 people who I can’t find on the map; they voted 62-38 for McCain.

After reading the write up, scroll down to see my summary at the end.

Please enjoy!

P.S. I worked forever on this, so I will go crazy if I see some b.s. diary go up and bump it down. Y’all know what I’m talking about.






Incumbent: Sam Johnson (R-Plano)

Counties: Collin

Cities of Note: Plano, Allen, Frisco, Wylie, McKinney

Obama: 38%

McCain: 61%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 42-57

White: 76 Black: 5 Hispanic: 10 Asian: 9 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

The district is completely based in Collin County, which has grown tremendously. Johnson is safe and will be succeeded by a conservative Republican if he retires.


Incumbent: Jeb Hensarling (R-Dallas)

Counties: Anderson, Henderson, Wood, Rains, Cherokee (Part), Dallas (Part), Tarrant (Part), Kaufman (Part)

Cities of Note: Arlington, Mansfield, Dallas, Mesquite

Obama: 41%

McCain: 58%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 36-63

White: 71 Black: 13 Hispanic: 13 Asian: 4 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican


Incumbent: Kay Granger (R-Fort Worth)

Counties: Tarrant (Part), Wise (Part), Parker (Part)

Cities of Note: Fort Worth

Obama: 37%

McCain: 62%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 36-63

White: 67 Black: 5 Hispanic: 23 Asian: 5 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

The district gets smaller, but Granger should continue to be comfortable here.


Incumbent: VACANT

Counties: Hood, Somerville, Johnson, Hill, Tarrant (Part)

Cities of Note: Arlington

Obama: 35%

McCain: 64%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 32-67

White: 77 Black: 7 Hispanic: 12 Asian: 4 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Likely Republican if Edwards runs; Safe Republican otherwise

Chet Edwards must be really annoying for Republicans. I drew a new Arlington-based district, with some of Edwards’ old exurban territory. Like I wrote, part of the DeLaymander’s success was that Democratic incumbents had to run in areas unfamiliar to them. As talented as he is, I don’t see Edwards winning in reflexively Republican urban areas in Tarrant County. Plus, Waco isn’t even in the district, so he’d have to move. This might finally dislodge him.


Incumbent: Kenny Marchant (R-Coppell)

Counties: Dallas (Part), Tarrant (Part), Denton (Part)

Cities of Note: Coppell, Irving, Dallas

Obama: 39%

McCain: 60%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 44-55

White: 65 Black: 7 Hispanic: 20 Asian: 8 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican


Incumbent: Michael Burgess (R-Lewisville)

Counties: Denton (Part), Tarrant (Part)

Cities of Note: Denton, Lewisville, Frisco

Obama: 35%

McCain: 64%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 41-58

White: 80 Black: 5 Hispanic: 11 Asian: 4 Native American:  0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican


Incumbent: Eddie Bernice Johnson (D-Dallas)

Counties: Dallas (Part), Tarrant (Part)

Cities of Note: Dallas, Fort Worth

Obama: 83%

McCain: 17%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 82-18

White: 22 Black: 52 Hispanic: 22 Asian: 3 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Democratic

The district now goes into Tarrant to take in black-majority precincts to create a new VRA-protected black-majority seat in the Metroplex.


Incumbent: Pete Sessions (R-Dallas)

Counties: Rockwall, Dallas (Part)

Cities of Note: Dallas, Garland, Richardson, Rockwall

Obama: 40%

McCain: 58%

Old District (Obama-McCain):

White: 71 Black: 7 Hispanic: 15 Asian: 6 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

Adding Rockwall County makes Sessions safer.

TX-33 DARKISH BLUE (Entirely in Dallas)

Incumbent: VACANT SEAT

Counties: Dallas

Cities of Note: Dallas

Obama: 67%

McCain: 32%

White: 25 Black: 17 Hispanic: 53 Asian: 4 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Democratic

A new Dallas-based VRA-protected Hispanic seat.





Incumbent: Ted Poe (R-Humble)

Counties: Harris, Liberty, Orange, Jasper, Orange, Jefferson (Part)

Cities of Note: Humble, Baytown, Beaumont

Obama: 36%

McCain: 63%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 40-60

White: 68 Black: 15 Hispanic: 13 Asian: 3 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

Poe gets safer by subtracting a chunk of Beaumont and adding Jasper, Newtown, and Orange Counties. The Harris part of the district remains very conservative, so Poe should have no problems here until 2020 redistricting-or a sooner redistricting, if history is a guide.


Incumbent:  VACANT

Counties: Fayette, Harris (Part), Colorado (Part), Fort Bend (Part), Lavaca (Part)

Cities of Note: Houston

Obama: 40%

McCain: 60%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 41-58

White: 70 Black: 8 Hispanic: 14 Asian: 8 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

By splitting remaining territory in Harris, one can make two pretty-safe urban Republican seats based in Houston. A lot of this is Culberson’s old district, but I think he’d run in the new 36th, which contains his home and is one point more Republican. The district might be competitive eventually, but for now it’s safely Republican.


Incumbent: Kevin Brady (R-The Woodlands)

Counties: Hardin, Tyler, Polk, San Jacinto, Walker, Grimes, Madison, Leon, Houston, Cherokee, Montgomery (Part), Jefferson (Part)

Cities of Note: Beaumont, Huntsville

Obama: 31%

McCain: 68%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 26-74

White: 75 Black: 13 Hispanic: 9 Asian: 2 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

When the district was drawn in the DeLaymander, it was designed to unseat any East Texas Democrats. Now that it has done so, I can stop wasting so many Republican votes. I split Brady’s base in Montgomery, and I added some Democratic precincts in Beaumont. Still, it’s insanely Republican, and Montgomery should continue to grow, making it even more so.


Incumbent: Al Green (D-Houston)

Counties: Harris (Part), Fort Bend (Part)

Cities of Note: Houston

Obama: 76%

McCain: 23%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 77-23

White: 17 Black: 37 Hispanic: 34 Asian: 12 Native American: 0 Other: 1

Projected: Safe Democratic


Incumbent: Ron Paul (R-Lake Jackson)

Counties: Chambers, Matagorda, Jackson, Calhoun, Brazoria (Part), Harris (Part), Galveston (Part)

Cities of Note: Galveston, Baytown, Texas City, League City, Freeport

Obama: 37%

McCain: 62%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 33-66

White: 59 Black: 11 Hispanic: 27 Asian: 3 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

An urban-suburban-exurban leftovers district, Paul and his nutty views should be safe here.


Incumbent: Sheila Jackson-Lee (D-Houston)

Counties: Harris

Cities of Note: Houston

Obama: 79%

McCain: 20%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 22-77

White: 18 Black: 46 Hispanic: 31 Asian: 4 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Democratic

The 18th is another safe black-plurality district in Houston.


Incumbent: Pete Olson (R-Sugar Land)

Counties: Harris (Part), Fort Bend (Part), Brazoria (Part), Galveston (Part)

Cities of Note: Sugar Land, Pearland, Pasadena

Obama: 39%

McCain: 60%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 41-58

White: 63 Black: 8 Hispanic: 18 Asian: 11 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

The old DeLay seat, it gets smaller, but is still safe for Olson, who beat a great candidate in Lampson in 2008.


Incumbent: Gene Green (D-Houston)

Counties: Harris

Cities of Note: Houston

Obama: 66%

McCain: 33%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 62-38

White: 18 Black: 11 Hispanic: 68 Asian: 2 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Democratic


Incumbent: John Culberson (R-Houston)

Counties: Harris

Cities of Note: Houston

Obama: 39

McCain: 60

Old District (Obama-McCain): 41-58 (7th District)

White: 64 Black: 8 Hispanic: 20 Asian: 8 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

See TX-7 for analysis.




Incumbent: Michael McCaul (R-Austin)

Counties: Lee, Burleson, Washington, Austin, Waller, Travis (Part), Montgomery (Part), Harris (Part)

Cities of Note: Austin, Conroe

Obama: 36%

McCain: 62%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 44-54

White: 72 Black: 9 Hispanic: 15 Asian: 4 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

Seeing how Montgomery County has grown tremendously since 2000, I split it up into two districts to help McCaul. The district loses some precincts in Austin and Harris County. If I were a Republican (I’m not), I’d feel pretty good about McCaul until 2020.


Incumbent: Charlie Gonzalez (D-San Antonio)

Counties: Bexar

Cities of Note: San Antonio

Obama: 71%

McCain: 27%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 64-36

White: 14 Black: 7 Hispanic: 77 Asian: 1 Native American: 0 Other: 1

Projected: Safe Democratic

The district gets more Hispanic and more Democratic. Gonzalez should be, and will be, fine.


Incumbent: Lamar Smith (R-San Antonio)

Counties: Kendall, Comal, Hays (Part), Travis (Part), Bexar (Part)

Cities of Note: San Antonio, Austin

Obama: 38%

McCain: 61%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 41-58

White: 74 Black: 3 Hispanic: 19 Asian: 4 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

Smith is entrenched and should be fine here. I’d be concerned about Travis County’s booming population down the road, but for now the Travis part is swingy or leans Republican. Safe.


Incumbent: Lloyd Doggett (D-Austin)

Counties: Travis

Cities of Note: Austin

Obama: 71%

McCain: 27%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 59-40

White: 49 Black: 11 Hispanic: 34 Asian: 5 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Democratic

Now entirely in Austin, Doggett is safe as can be.


Incumbent: Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo)

Counties: La Salle, Frio, Atascosa, Webb (Part), Bexar (Part), Wilson (Part), Guadalupe (Part), Caldwell (Part), Bastrop (Part)

Cities of Note: Laredo, San Antonio, San Marcos, Bastrop

Obama: 53%

McCain: 46%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 56-44

White: 36 Black: 4 Hispanic: 57 Asian: 2 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Democratic

The district changes a lot. It’s a lot more San Antonio heavy, and Cuellar’s home might not be even in the district. Still, it should elect a Hispanic Democrat,


Incumbent: Ciro Rodriguez (D-San Antonio)

Counties: Mitchell, Nolan, Sterling, Coke, Runnels, Coleman, Concho, Schleicher, Menard, Sutton, Kimble, Edwards, Real, Kerr, Bandera, Bexar (Part), Guadalupe (Part), Caldwell (Part), Brown (Part)

Cities of Note: San Antonio, Seguin

Obama: 39%

McCain: 60%

White: 58 Black: 7 Hispanic: 31 Asian: 3 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Likely Republican

A new district in the San Antonio area, I combined a strip of San Antonio with Republican-leaning suburbs and parts of rural West Texas. Should be safe, unless Hispanics start voting. Rodriguez lives in the district I think.




Incumbent: Ruben Hinjosa (D-Mercedes)

Counties: Refugio, Goliad, Bee, Aransas, Jim Wells, Brooks, Hidalgo (Part), Cameron (Part), San Patricio (Part)

Cities of Note: McAllen, Harlingen

Obama: 62%

McCain: 37%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 60-40

White: 17 Black: 1 Hispanic: 81 Asian: 1 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Democratic

Probably now the most Hispanic district in the nation, this would pass VRA muster because there is a new Hispanic district that borders it, the 34th District. McAllen based, it’s pretty similar to today’s 15th district. The new 15th should get incredibly more Democratic over the next decade if trends continue, especially if McAllen continues to grow.


Incumbent: Solomon Ortiz (D-Corpus Christi)

Counties: Nueces, Kleberg, Kenedy, Willacy, Cameron

Cities of Note: Brownsville, Corpus Christi

Obama: 53%

McCain: 46%

Old District (Obama-McCain):

White: 27 Black: 2 Hispanic: 69 Asian: 2 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Democratic



Counties: Starr, Zapata, Jim Hogg, Duval, McMullen, Live Oak, Karnes, Gonzales, DeWitt, Victoria, Hidalgo (Part), Wilson (Part) Lavaca (Part), Colorado (Part), Wharton (Part), Fort Bend (Part)

Cities of Note: McAllen, Rosenberg, Victoria

Obama: 49%

McCain: 50%

Old District (Obama-McCain):

White: 27 Black: 3 Hispanic: 69 Asian: 1 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Tossup

A newly-created McAllen-based district, it’s swingy territory. I think it should elect a conservative Hispanic Democrat, but it has a R-leaning bent and should probably would, at first, elect a Republican Hispanic.





Incumbent: Silvestre Reyes (D-El Paso)

Counties: El Paso (Part)

Cities of Note: El Paso

Obama: 65%

McCain: 34%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 66-33

White: 18 Black: 3 Hispanic: 77 Asian: 2 Native American: 0 Other: 1

Projected: Safe Democratic

No difference really, but it gets smaller. Safe Democratic.


Incumbent: Louie Gohmert (R-Tyler)

Counties: Smith, Upshur, Gregg, Harrison, Nacogdoches, Shelby, Panola, Angelina, San Augustin, Sabine, Marion (Part)

Cities of Note: Tyler, Longview, Lufkin, Marshall

Obama: 30%

McCain: 69%

Old District (Obama-McCain):

White: 70 Black: 19 Hispanic: 9 Asian: 1 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

Not much has changed. It loses a little land due to population growth. East Texas should keep electing Republicans. Gohmert, as crazy as he is, is safe.


Incumbent:  VACANT

Counties: Fannin, Lamar, Red River, Bowie, Cass, Morris, Camp, Titus, Hopkins, Delta, Hunt, Marion (Part), Kaufman (Part), Collin (Part), Dallas (Part)

Cities of Note: Paris, Dallas, Mesquite

Obama: 35%

McCain: 64%

Old District (Obama-McCain):

White: 73 Black: 14 Hispanic: 10 Asian: 3 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

It’s pretty much Ralph Hall’s district, but I couldn’t justify keep Rockwall County in the district; Sessions needed to be made safer. Hall is getting up there in age, and he survived a good teabagging this year in the primary. Anyway, he could move here or another very conservative Republican could run here.


Incumbent: Joe Barton (R-Ennis)

Counties: Ellis, Navarro, Freestone, Limestone, Falls, Robertson, Brazos, Bell (Part), Milam (Part)

Cities of Note: Ennis, Bryan, Temple, Killeen

Obama: 36%

McCain: 63%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 40-60

White: 65 Black: 15 Hispanic: 16 Asian: 4 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

I make no apologies (heh) to Barton for taking out Arlington, as he gets an exurban and pretty safe new district. However, Edwards might consider taking a shot at him, as Temple and Bryan are now in the district. Still, I would feel good about Barton’s chances.


Incumbent: Randy Neugebauer (R-Lubbock), Chet Edwards (D-Waco)

Counties: Lubbock, Crosby, Motley, Dickens, King, Stonewall, Haskell, Throckmorton, Young, Erath, Comanche, Bosque, McLennan, Hamilton (Part), Palo Pinto (Part), Hamilton (Part), Bell (Part)

Cities of Note: Lubbock, Waco

Obama: 33%

McCain: 66%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 27-72

White: 66 Black: 10 Hispanic: 20 Asian: 2 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Leans Republican

This district will be a Lubbock vs. Waco district, with a spaghetti strange of rural West Texas in between. Edwards would have to get acquainted with a new district in inhospitable West Texas. Edge to “It’s a Baby Killer.”


Incumbent: Mac Thornberry (R-Clarendon)

Counties: A lot

Cities of Note: Wichita Falls, Amarillo, Denison



Old District (Obama-McCain): 23-76

White: Black: Hispanic: Asian: Native American: Other:



Incumbent: Mike Conaway (R-Midland)

Counties: A lot

Cities of Note: Midland, Abilene, Amarillo

Obama: 22

McCain: 77

Old District (Obama-McCain): 24-75

White: Black: Hispanic: Asian: Native American: Other:

Projected: Safe Republican

I think this becomes the safest GOP seat in the country…


Incumbent: OPEN SEAT

Counties: Medina, Uvalde, Dimmit, Zavala, Maverick, Kinney, Val Verde, Terrell, Brewster, Presidio, Jeff Davis, Culberson, Hudspeth, Reeves, Loving, Winkler, Ector, Howard, Glasscock, Ward, Crane, Upton, Reagan, Tom Green, Irion, Crockett, El Paso (Part), Webb (Part), Andrews (Part)

Cities of Note: El Paso, Laredo, San Angelo, Odessa

Obama: 42%

McCain: 57%

Old District (Obama-McCain):

White: 36 Black: 3 Hispanic: 60 Asian: 1 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Likely Republican

A VRA-protected seat, it’s more Hispanic than the current 23rd. It’s way more Republican now, a net of 18 points more. Ciro Rodriguez doesn’t live here anymore, and the district is based in three different population centers: San Angelo, Odessa, and Northern Laredo.  A Blue Dog Hispanic could win here eventually, as Hispanics in the area might, you know, vote eventually. This district is likely going to go to an Hispanic Republican, but down the road, the huge 23rd might flip.


Incumbent: John Carter (R-Round Rock)

Counties: Williamson, Burnett, Blanco, Gillespie, Llano, Mason, San Saba, McCulloch, Mills, Lampasas, Coryell, Hamilton (Part), Hamilton (Part), Milam (Part)

Cities of Note: Round Rock, Cedar Park, Georgetown

Obama: 36%

McCain: 62%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 41-57

White: 75 Black: 6 Hispanic: 15 Asian: 3 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

Again, this redistricting took countless hours. I kinda dared myself to try it out. I think it turned out pretty well…

Some thoughts: the DeLaymander was absolutely brilliant–in a nefarious sort of way. Just looking at the districts though, it’s almost inevitable that some districts start flipping our way. I think I used West Texas more effectively than it is now. I’ll add more later.

Updated with new Houston Districts!-Texas GOP Gerrymander with Political Data

I had been working on Texas maps for a few months but wasn’t fully sure about how my districts would turn out without political data. Now that Dave’s Redistricting App has political data for Texas, I have created a 36 seat map that should produce a 25-11 GOP majority. All current incumbents remain safe for the near future, with the exception of Chet Edwards, whose seat is completely dismantled. Four new seats are created, one for the Dems, and three for the GOP. It was interesting to see what’s possible, though I definitely wouldn’t support this plan in real life. Here are some maps as well as my analysis of each district:

Whole State


The Districts

East Texas

District 1 (Blue): East Texas-Tyler, Longview, Texarkana; Louie Gohmert (R)

New 2008 results: 68% McCain-32% Obama

Old 2008 results: 69% McCain-31% Obama

Racial stats: 70% white, 20% black, 8% Hispanic

This is still a solidly-Republican district in East Texas, although the district moves north slightly. Louie Gohmert or any Republican will be more than safe here.



District 2 (Dark Green): Montgomery County, Humble, Northern Harris County, Fort Bend County; Ted Poe (R)

New 2008 results: 61% McCain-38% Obama

Old 2008 results: 60% McCain-40% Obama

Racial stats: 66% white, 18% Hispanic, 11% black, 5% Asian

This district loses nearly all of its territory in East Texas, including Democratic areas in Liberty, Port Arthur, and Beaumont. It now reaches into Montgomery County. It also stretches down into Brazoria and Fort Bend Counties, as well as Pasadena to help shore up Pete Olson. Still a safe GOP district, and the Republican performance in fact increases.

District 7 (Gray): Houston and western Harris County, Katy; John Culberson (R)

New 2008 results: 62% McCain-37% Obama

Old 2008 results: 58% McCain-41% Obama

Racial stats: 65% white, 20% Hispanic, 9% Asian, 6% black

This district remains, at its core, a heavily Republican district, and in fact becomes more Republican, although the demographics are shifting. Culberson will probably not be in much danger anytime soon seeing as he faced a decent opponent in 2008 and still did very well. The district had to lose some of its Republican areas in the northern half to help create TX-36, a new Republican district, but gains areas to the west from TX-10

District 8 (Light Blueish Purple): Montgomery County, East Texas; Kevin Brady (R)

New 2008 results: 63% McCain-36% Obama

Old 2008 results:  74% McCain-26% Obama

Racial stats: 71% white, 19% black, 8% Hispanic

This district sees a huge drop in Republican performance to help shore up some neighboring districts, but it should not put the GOP in any electoral danger anytime soon. It loses territory in Montgomery County to TX-02 and the new Republican TX-36 and picks up the Democratic areas of Liberty, Beaumont, and Port Arthur from TX-02. Maybe with the diminished influence of Montgomery County Jim Turner or Nick Lampson could have won here in 2004.

District 9 (Light Blue): Southern Harris County; Al Green (D)

New 2008 results: 74% Obama-25% McCain

Old 2008 results: 77% Obama-23% McCain

Racial stats: 34% black, 32% Hispanic, 21% white, 13% Asian

This district keeps a black plurality and remains safely Democratic, so Al Green should be happy and protected from a primary challenge by a Hispanic for the time being. The district became 3 points less Democratic for contiguity reasons, but changed very little.

District 14 (Bronze): Galveston, Brazoria County, Texas coastline; Ron Paul (R)

New 2008 results: 64% McCain-35% Obama

Old 2008 results: 66% McCain-33% Obama

Racial stats: 63% white, 22% Hispanic, 12% black

This district loses its share of Fort Bend County as well as all of Victoria County, but it gains all of Galveston County from TX-22 and some areas from TX-15 and TX-27. Republican performance decreases somewhat, but Ron Paul or any Republican should still be safe here for a long time.

District 18 (Banana Yellow): Houston; Sheila Jackson-Lee (D)

New 2008 results: 83% Obama-17% McCain

Old 2008 results: 77% Obama-22% McCain

Racial stats: 49% black, 31% Hispanic, 15% white

This is now the most Democratic district in Texas and also the most partisan for either party, with a whopping 66% margin for Obama. The black percentage rises to 49%, which will probably isolate Sheila Jackson-Lee from a Hispanic primary challenge, although Al Green may push for some of those black voters for his own district. The Republican and competitive areas on the western edge of the district are lost to the new TX-36, and in return the district picks up some more territory to the south from TX-09.

District 22 (Brown): Sugar Land, Pearland, Pasadena, Rosenberg; Pete Olson (R)

New 2008 results: 61% McCain-38% Obama

Old 2008 results: 58% McCain-41% Obama

Racial stats: 62% white, 19% Hispanic, 11% Asian, 8% black

This already Republican district becomes even more GOP-friendly, and the district shrinks, losing Democratic areas in Fort Bend and Brazoria Counties to TX-02 and all of its territory in Galveston County to TX-14. Pete Olson should be more than okay for now, although the demographics in the district may shift over the next decade. He would probably have performed better against Lampson in 2008 in this district as it lacks now lacks any of Galveston County.

District 29 (Light Grayish Olive): Houston; Gene Green (D)

New 2008 results: 63% Obama-37% McCain

Old 2008 results: 62% Obama-38% McCain

Racial stats: 66% Hispanic, 22% white, 10% black

This district is essentially unchanged from its current form as a Democratic and Hispanic-majority East Houston district, so the only thing Gene Green has to worry about is a Hispanic primary challenger, although that hasn’t been a losing issue for him yet over the last 18 years.

District 36 (Mango): Houston, Conroe, Montgomery County; new Republican district

New 2008 results: 62% McCain-37% Obama

Old 2008 results: New district

Racial stats: 65% white, 23% Hispanic, 7% black, 5% Asian

I thought there was still room in the Houston area to create a new Republican district without really weakening any Republican incumbents and it was indeed possible to so. The district takes all the Republican western parts of Sheila Jackson-Lee’s district and also takes a bit from Culberson, Poe, and McCaul’s districts, although it doesn’t put any of them in serious danger electorally. It also gets a big GOP boost by taking a lot of of Montgomery County from TX-08, which pushes it over the 60% mark. If the Republicans can’t win this new seat it would be shocking.

Dallas/Forth Worth Area


District 3 (Grapy Purple): Plano, Garland; Sam Johnson (R)

New 2008 results: 57 % McCain-42% Obama

Old 2008 results: 57% McCain-42% Obama

Racial stats: 66% white, 16% Hispanic, 9% black, 9% Asian

This district’s 2008 results remain the same, but the district itself changes. The district moves north and east to take in some Collin County areas from TX-04 and loses some Republican areas in Plano to make TX-32 safer. This district should remain in GOP hands for the immediate future, even after Sam Johnson retires.

District 4 (Red): North Texas border counties, Fort Worth suburbs, Denton, Collin County; Ralph Hall (R)

New 2008 results: 67% McCain-32% Obama

Old 2008 results: 69% McCain-30% Obama

Racial stats: 80% white, 10% Hispanic, 7% black

This district becomes a bit less Republican, losing some of its East Texas counties to TX-01 and TX-05 and some of its Collin County territory. It also picks up Democratic areas in Denton to strengthen TX-26. It’s more than safe for Hall or any Republican, although it’s quite different from the East Texas-based district that Hall was elected from earlier in his career.

District 5 (Yellow): Northeast Dallas, rural East Texas counties; Jeb Hensarling (R)

New 2008 results: 63% McCain-36% Obama

Old 2008 results: 63% McCain-36 Obama

Racial stats: 72% white, 14% Hispanic, 12 % black

This district changes geographically but the political realities remain mostly the same, with the district losing some Democratic areas to TX-30 and the rural East Texas part of the district moving north somewhat. Still a safe GOP seat for a while to come.

District 6 (Dark Teal): Arlington, Forth Worth suburbs, Ennis; Joe Barton (R)

New 2008 results: 62% McCain-37% Obama

Old 2008 results: 60% McCain-40% Obama

70% white, 14% Hispanic, 11% white

The district remains essentially in its present form, although it loses some of the southern parts of the district to TX-17. The district becomes more Republican as it loses some Democratic areas in Tarrant County.

District 12 (Periwinkle): Forth Worth, Weatherford; Kay Granger (R)

New 2008 results: 60% McCain-39% Obama

Old 2008 results: 63% McCain-36% Obama

Racial stats: 64% white, 25% Hispanic, 6% black

This district becomes smaller in area as it loses Wise County and much of Parker County to TX-26, but it remains quite Republican. That combined with Kay Granger’s popularity in Forth Worth should keep it red.

District 24 (Dark Purple): Lewisville, Irving, Carollton, Hurst; Kenny Marchant (R)

New 2008 results: 62% McCain-37% Obama

Old 2008 results: 55% McCain-44% Obama

Racial stats: 71% white, 15% Hispanic, 8% Asian, 6% black

While this district may be trending Democratic in the long-term, the southern parts of the district that were more Democratic such as Grand Prairie and Duncanville are now in the new TX-35. The new district is also 71% white, which counters many of the demographic shifts over the past district. The result is a 7% jump in Republican performance, which should keep Kenny Marchant or another Republican safe for the next decade.

District 26 (Dark Gray): Denton suburbs, Fort Worth, Flower Mound, Wise/Parker counties; Michael Burgess (R)

New 2008 results: 62% McCain-38% Obama

Old 2008 results: 58% McCain-41% Obama

Racial stats: 71% white, 14% black, 12% Hispanic

Any improvements that Democrats have made in Fort Worth and Denton County will be cancelled out by this plan. This already Republican district picks up most of the Wise and Parker County areas from TX-12, and the Democratic parts of Denton go to TX-04, which remains quite Republican as well. I didn’t touch the Fort Worth part of the district, which is a remnant of the dismantling of Martin Frost’s old TX-24 and has a lot of Democrats, but it shouldn’t matter too much for now because of Republican strength elsewhere. The district should be a safe GOP hold throughout the decade.

District 30 (Orangish Pink): Dallas; Eddie Bernice Johnson (D)

New 2008 results: 79% Obama-21% McCain

Old 2008 results: 82% Obama-18% McCain

Racial stats: 39% black, 32% Hispanic, 27% white

This remains a heavily Democratic, black-plurality district based in metro Dallas that Eddie Bernice Johnson should be more than happy with. It changes very little although it trades a little territory with TX-05 and TX-32, as well as the new TX-35.

District 32 (Burnt Orange): Dallas, Plano, Richardson, University/Highland Park; Pete Sessions (R)

New 2008 results: 61% McCain-37% Obama

Old 2008 results: 53% McCain-46% Obama

Racial stats: 75% white, 16% Hispanic, 6% black

Perhaps no GOP district swung more to the Democrats than Pete Sessions’ TX-32, which gave John McCain a measly 7% margin of victory in 2008. The district in its current form has only a white plurality, although now it is 74% white. The district becomes more Republican by expanding north into Plano and losing minority areas in Irving and Cockrell Hill to the new TX-35, so Pete Sessions should be safe in his new district, although who knows how demographics will change over the next decade.

District 35 (Grapish Purple): Dallas, Duncanville, Fort Worth, Irving, Cockrell Hill; new Democratic district

New 2008 results: 63% Obama-35% McCain

Old 2008 results: New district

Racial stats: 38% white, 35% Hispanic, 20% black, 6% Asian

In order to make TX-24, TX-26, and TX-32 more safely Republican, I thought it was necessary to draw a new Democratic seat in the Dallas-Fort Worth area. The population growth in the area requires at least one new district around here, and the GOP is stretched pretty thin as it is. So this very-Democratic majority-minority district, which is a bit like Martin Frost’s 2002-2004 district, is created as a result. I think it will probably elect a Hispanic, but I don’t know what the voting-age stats for the district, so maybe Hispanics have less influence than it would seem from the surface. This should be a safe Democratic pickup.

Austin/Central Texas


District 10 (Magenta): Austin/northern Travis County, Hays County, western Harris County; Mike McCaul (R)

New 2008 results: 58% McCain-40% Obama

Old 2008 results: 55% McCain-44% Obama

Racial stats: 74% white, 14% Hispanic, 6% black, 5% Asian

This district has been trending more Democratic and it remains similar to its current form, with a few tweaks to make it more Republican as McCain’s 2008 performance increases by 3 points. It loses some of its Democratic areas in Austin and takes in the more conservative areas of Travis County in the north and west, as well as the conservative western half of Hays County. The eastern half of the district, especially in Harris County, loses its influence somewhat as a result. Also, the Hispanic population is reduced to just 14%. This is now much friendlier turf for Mike McCaul.

District 17 (Dark Blueish Purple): Forth Worth suburbs, Bryan, Huntsville, Lufkin, several rural East Texas counties; Chet Edwards (D) or Republican pickup

New 2008 results: 67% McCain-32% Obama

Old 2008 results: 67% McCain-32% Obama

Racial stats: 69% white, 15% black, 13% Hispanic

Chet Edwards will have a difficult time winning reelection with this map, as he sees his current district dismantled. His base in Waco is put in a new heavily Republican 33rd district along with Wichita Falls and West Texas, while TX-17 retains the more hostile parts of his current district and picks up Republican areas to the east from TX-06, TX-08, and TX-01. I think that Edwards would run in this district as it has more of his current territory, although the East Texas parts of the district would probably be very hostile to him. But Edwards is a fighter and may well survive in this district, just as he has in his current district.

District 25 (Dark Pink): Austin, San Marcos; Lloyd Doggett (D)

New 2008 results: 68% Obama-31% McCain

Old 2008 results: 59% Obama-40% McCain

Racial stats: 51% white, 34% Hispanic, 10% black, 5% Asian

In order to make TX-10 safer for McCaul and create a new Republican TX-34, this district becomes even more of an Austin district and a Democratic stronghold, with Obama’s performance increasing by 9 points to a whopping 68%. The GOP has kind of already ceded this district to Lloyd Doggett, and he will have a much friendlier district.

District 31 (Beige): Temple, Williamson County, Brady, rural West Texas counties

New 2008 results: 61% McCain-37% Obama

Old 2008 results: 58% McCain-42% Obama

Racial stats: 75% white, 16% Hispanic, 6% black

This district becomes more Republican in order to protect John Carter from any possible shifts in Williamson County over the next decade. His district loses Killeen and Temple and some of the northern counties, but gains area in West Texas from TX-11 and TX-21. It should remain easily Republican for the near future.

District 33 (Ocean Blue): Waco, Wichita Falls, North Texas border counties; Chet Edwards (D) or new Republican district

New 2008 results: 71% McCain-29% Obama

Old 2008 results: New district

Racial stats: 77% white, 13% Hispanic, 8% black

This district is heavily Republican and combines parts of West and North Texas from TX-13 such as Wichita Falls, Erath County from TX-31, and parts of Chet Edwards’ 17th district, including his base in Waco. Edwards could run here because it has parts of his old district, most importantly Waco, but it would be an uphill battle given the new territory in North/West Texas. If Edwards doesn’t run here, consider it a safe GOP pickup.

West Texas

District 11 (Lime Green): Midland/Odessa, San Angelo, Killeen; Mike Conaway (R)

New 2008 results: 68% McCain-31% Obama

Old 2008 results: 76% McCain-24% Obama

Racial stats: 57% white, 29% Hispanic, 10% black

While the Republican performance drops 8 points from the current district, it remains extremely Republican. The district loses much of its northern territory to TX-19, and as a result, it shifts east and south to take in territory from TX-21 and TX-23. It also takes in the Democratic areas of Killeen in Bell County, which in turn helps make TX-31 more Republican.

District 13 (Tannish Brown): Amarillo, Abilene; Mac Thornberry (R)

New 2008 results: 77% McCain-22% Obama

Old 2008 results: 77% McCain-23% Obama

Racial stats: 70% white, 23% Hispanic, 5% black

This is still the most Republican district in Texas and one of the most Republican districts in the nation. It changes significantly, losing Wichita Falls and most of the eastern territory to the new TX-33, but picks up Abilene and shifts south into the current TX-19. Interestingly, it is quite possible that if Charlie Stenholm had run in this district in 2004 he could have survived as it has much of his rural base and Abilene. But no other Democrat will win this district for a long time.

District 16 (Bright Green): El Paso; Silvestre Reyes (D)

New 2008 results: 65% Obama-34% McCain

Old 2008 results: 66% Obama-34% McCain

Racial stats: 76% Hispanic, 18% white

This district doesn’t change much at all and remains based in El Paso as a heavily Democratic and Hispanic district. Silvestre Reyes will be in office for as long as he wants.

District 19 (Olive Green): Lubbock, West/Central Texas, Temple; Randy Neugebauer (R)

New 2008 results: 71% McCain, 28% Obama

Old 2008 results: 72% McCain, 27% Obama

Racial stats: 64% white, 26% Hispanic, 8% black

The district loses the city of Abilene and much of its northern territory to TX-13, so it expands eastward to take in parts of TX-31 and picks up Temple and Democratic areas in Bell County. The district becomes only slightly less Republican and Neugebauer and the GOP can consider it a safe hold for years to come.

South Texas

District 15 (Orange): McAllen, Harlingen, Alice; Ruben Hinojosa (D)

New 2008 results: 64% Obama-35% McCain

Old 2008 results: 60% Obama-40% McCain

Racial stats: 84% Hispanic, 15% white

While several of the northwestern counties are lost to the new TX-34 and TX-14, the district remains centered on the border cities of McAllen and Harlingen. It is one of the most Hispanic districts in the country, and Democratic performance increases as well, making victory assured for Hinojosa or any Hispanic Democrat running here.

District 27 (Greenish Turquoise): Corpus Christi, Brownsville; Solomon Ortiz (D)

New 2008 results: 54% McCain-45% Obama

Old 2008 results: 53% McCain-46% Obama

Racial stats: 70% Hispanic, 26% white

This district is virtually unchanged and remains heavily Hispanic and safe for Solomon Ortiz. It only went for Obama by 9 points in 2008 and probably voted for Bush by in 2004, although I don’t think this will become a Republican seat any time soon and I wasn’t going to try at the expense of the new Republican Hill Country district, TX-34.

District 28 (Rose Pink): Laredo, Brownsville; Henry Cuellar (D)

New 2008 results: 63% Obama-36% McCain

Old 2008 results: 56% Obama-44% McCain

Racial stats: 84% Hispanic, 14% white

After losing several eastern Republican counties to the new TX-34, Democratic performance in this district goes up by 7 points, and at 84% it is possibly the most Hispanic district in the country. I wonder if maybe this district could get a better representative than Henry Cuellar now that it is more Democratic…

District 34 (Tropical Green): Austin, Victoria, Texas Hill Country; new Republican district

New 2008 results: 58% McCain-41% Obama

Old 2008 results: New district

Racial stats: 59% white, 30% Hispanic, 8% black

This is one of the most diverse districts in the entire state, containing liberal areas in Austin, conservative areas west of Houston, Victoria and the Central Texas counties known as the Texas Hill Country, and Hispanic areas in South Texas stretching nearly to the Mexican border. It is derived from seven current districts: TX-10, TX-14, TX-15, TX-21, TX-22, TX-25, and TX-28.While the district is just 59% white, it is still very Republican, and would probably elected a Republican easily enough. The demographics may change considerably by the end of the decade though.

San Antonio


District 20 (Peach): San Antonio; Charlie Gonzalez (D)

New 2008 results: 63% Obama, 35% McCain

Old 2008 results: 63% Obama, 36% McCain

Racial stats: 68% Hispanic, 23% white, 6% black

Essentially the same district centered on the city of San Antonio; remains heavily Hispanic and Democratic and becomes even more compact. Not a liability for the Democrats or for Charlie Gonzalez.

District 21 (Reddish Brown): Northern Bexar County/San Antonio, New Braunfels; Lamar Smith (R)

New 2008 results: 61% McCain-38% Obama

Old 2008 results: 58% McCain-41% Obama

Racial stats: 64% white, 24% Hispanic, 8% black

Lamar Smith’s district contracts in area, losing its portions of Travis County and Austin, as well as much of its western parts. It is now almost entirely a Bexar County district, gaining Republican areas from TX-23, which increases the GOP performance by three points, making it an easy hold for the GOP.

District 23 (Sky Blue): El Paso, San Antonio, Eagle Pass; Ciro Rodriguez (D)

New 2008 results: 57% Obama-42% McCain

Old 2008 results: 51% Obama-48% McCain

Racial stats: 68% Hispanic, 26% white

This district goes from swing to heavily Democratic, in large part because of the need for the Republican counties to the north to be taken up by TX-11 and the population growth along the border counties. I think the GOP will concede this one to Rodriguez to avoid weakening TX-21, as well as to make sure that they don’t violate the VRA and have a court redraw the districts again as was the case with the old TX-23 represented by Henry Bonilla from 2004 to 2006. This district was trending Democratic already anyway, now that process is just being accelerated.

By what margin will Bob Shamansky win?

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Good news for Texas Democrats

Bill White, the former Mayor of Houston, is sitting on $5.4 million for the general election.  Roughly twice as much as either Rick Perry or Kay Bailey Hutchinson.  

Kay Bailey Hutchinson

1.1M raised

8M spent

2.3M Cash on Hand

Rick Perry

850K raised

8.8M spent

2.5M CoH

Debra Medina

450K raised

228k spent

291K CoH

Bill White

2.2M raised

2.7M spent

5.4M CoH

Farouk Shami

1.1M raised

5M spent

1M CoH

Thanks to the BurntOrangeReport for the numbers


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NJ-03: Jon Runyan to challenge Adler after 2009 season

Well sports fans, it looks like we have a confirmation that Jon Runyan will throw his hat into the ring to challenge John Adler in NJ-03.

MOUNT LAUREL, N.J. — NFL player Jon Runyan says he’ll retire at the end of the season and launch a campaign for Congress in New Jersey’s 3rd District.

The offensive lineman was signed Tuesday to play the remainder of the season with the San Diego Chargers.

Runyan said in a statement that he had told Republican officials in Burlington County that he would retire after the season and seek to challenge Democratic Rep. John Adler in 2010.

Runyan has played 13 seasons in the NFL for Houston, Tennessee and Philadelphia. He never missed a game in nine years with the Eagles, starting 192 straight regular-season games.

He turns 36 on Friday.


What is wrong with my party? (GOP)

First, I am not sure if this is allowed here, if not, just delete it

As one of few Republicans here, I wanted to take the opportunity to outline some of the things I fell are currently wrong with my party, and see what the other side thinks. Anyway, lets begin-

1. Get back to Reagan. People liked him. People don’t like current conservative leaders too much. Why? They can sometimes come off as offensive and mean. They are too critical of Obama, just because he’s a liberal. Even though the other side didn’t always respect our President, that doesn’t mean we can’t respect him.

2. Obama’s school speech. I think it was a great idea. Whats wrong with the President telling kids to stay and school and focus? Nothing. No one had a problem when Reagan and Bush did it, so whats the problem when Obama does it?

3. Infighting. It’s gotten alot better, but when Rush says something critical of you, ignore it. Don’t acknowledge it. Michael Steele, I’m looking at you. Also, when Rush calls your new plan to give the party a new image a Republican party re-branding and calls you out for it, you don’t cancel it. That just makes people think he is the Republican Party’s leader.

And most importantly, when you do get back in power, don’t screw up like you did last time. During the Bush years, you couldn’t tell the difference between a Democrat and Republican. Now that were out of power, suddenly were conservative? No, it don’t work that way. Liberals have always been liberal, when in power, and out. Conservatives don’t just get to be conservative when their out of power. We need to be conservative at all times.

By what margin will Bob Shamansky win?

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