Tag: FL-16

• PA-Sen: Democratic internal pollsters Garin-Hart-Yang, at the behest of the DSCC, took a look at the possible Pennsylvania Senate primary between Arlen Specter and Rep. Joe Sestak. There’s no information about the dates or the MoE, but it shows Specter beating Sestak 56-16 (with 16% undecided), not much different from R2K‘s 56-11 a few weeks ago. This falls against a backdrop of coalescing conventional wisdom that Specter has, after a rocky first week, settled down into reliable Dem-ness (although Campaign Diairies offers an effective rebuttal of that idea).

• The Corrections: Two things have already changed since yesterday’s digest: Suzanne Haik Terrell, suddenly rumored to be ready to primary David Vitter, backed down and endorsed Vitter. And in California, Dianne Feinstein walked back comments about running for Governor, saying it’s “very unlikely” and that she’s tired of being asked about it.

• Senate: PPP put together a handy scorecard of all the approval ratings for Senators they’ve polled so far this year. Amy Klobuchar is tops, at 62/25, followed by Tom Coburn and Kay Bailey Hutchison. The bottom 3? Jim Bunning, Mel Martinez, and Roland Burris (at 17/62). The only other Dems in net-negative territory are the Colorado 2, Mark Udall and Michael Bennet (and that’s from that widely-poo-pooed Colorado sample).

• FL-Sen: Rep. Kendrick Meek just got two endorsements as he and state Sen. Dan Gelber battle for supremacy in their shared south Florida stomping grounds: Broward County Mayor Stacey Ritter and West Palm Beach Mayor Lois Frankel. (Of course, Gelber may shortly be in the AG’s race instead, so this all may be moot.)

• FL-16: Speaking of the Florida AG’s race, the DCCC has a top contender in mind for the 16th: state Sen. Dave Aronberg (who instead seems likely to square off with Gelber, and 2006 gov candidate Rod Smith, in the AG’s race). Aronberg’s seat is up in 2012, and wouldn’t have to give up his Senate seat to go for FL-16, although state law would require him to give it up to run for statewide office. The DCCC is talking to St. Lucie County Commissioner Chris Craft as a backup plan.

• MS-01: Nobody’s exactly sure what “national pundits” the rumors came from, but Rep. Travis Childers quickly quashed suggestions in a recent interview that he might jump to the GOP (and the deep minority) to have an easier go in the 2010 election. (What is this, the 90s?) “Absolutely not,” he said. “I’m a Southern Democrat – I vote what’s best for Mississippi.”

(DavidNYC and Crisitunity contributed to the writing of this post.)

We made these changes on Friday night, but haven’t had the opportunity to post our full write-ups until now. Here goes:

AZ-01 (Open): Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic

Essentially, Republicans ceded this race the moment that former Arizona state Senate President Ken Bennett declined to run for the open seat of “retiring” GOP Rep. Rick Renzi. In his place, Republicans are running Arizona Mining Association President Sydney Hay, a truly D-grade candidate whose sharply right-wing views would make Randy Graf smile with pride. Most starkly, Hay has only raised $363,000 compared to Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick’s $1.68 million. With the DCCC spending liberally against Hay, the end result is poised to look ugly for the GOP here. (James L.)

AZ-08 (Giffords): Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic

This is a case of good candidate, wrong year for the Republicans: they convinced state senate president Tim Bee to run against freshman Democrat Gabrielle Giffords in this R+1 district. Bee came in with something of a moderate image, but that was frittered away through a public tussle with Jim Kolbe, the Republican occupant of this seat prior to Giffords (probably over Bee’s support for a gay marriage amendment to the Arizona constitution) and having to have a Bush visit to help with fundraising.

In a normal year, the GOP could have made a strong race of it, even with these few unforced errors. Given the broader trends this year, though, and the GOP’s more pressing problems on defense, Bee simply got washed away… and acknowledging their chances, the NRCC just pulled out of this race. (Crisitunity)

CA-04 (Open): Lean Republican to Tossup

Hopes have been high for Charlie Brown’s second run at this seat in the Sacramento suburbs, after he narrowly lost to corrupt John Doolittle in 2006. Unfortunately (for Brown’s chances), Doolittle subsequently retired, meaning that Brown would instead be running in 2008 against ‘generic R’ in a dark-red R+11 district.

Fortunately for Brown, though, ‘generic R’ didn’t show up, and instead he found himself running against ‘conservative icon’ Tom McClintock, who between his name-recognition and access to money was supposed to have been a formidable opponent may just be too laughable and over-the-top even for this district. First off, McClintock is from southern California and hasn’t bothered moving to the district yet. He seems to have little intention of unpacking his bags even if he wins, as he’s keeping various accounts for 2010 statewide offices open.

Things just haven’t gelled for McClintock; not only has he trailed Brown in all polls except his own internals, but he’s almost out of money, as he finished the third quarter with only $94,000 cash on hand. The district lean here should disqualify a Democrat from picking up this seat, but by any objective measure, Brown is poised to be able to do it. (C)

FL-16 (Mahoney): Lean Republican to Likely Republican

This is an ugly, awful race with an ugly, awful candidate on the Dem line who really ought to spare himself, his family, his constituents, and his nominal party a whole lot of embarrassment by resigning. We’ll have a shot here again in the future.

One point I’d like to make in passing, though, is that if Dave Lutrin, who was a short-lived primary opponent of Mahoney’s back in 2006, thought his cause was just, he should never have dropped out. I’m really tired of claims that Rahm Emanuel somehow “pushed” Lutrin out of the race.

This isn’t a third-world country. His family wasn’t threatened. In America, if you want to run for office, you run. Some people might make things difficult for you, but that’s called politics. And we also have excellent proof that such a course of action by no means has to be quixotic – just look at Reps. Jerry McNerney and Carol Shea-Porter. In other words, there’s no excuse for giving up just because Rahm allegedly likes someone else better than you. (David)

FL-24 (Feeney): Tossup to Lean Democratic

Who would have ever thought that the first Republican incumbent to fall off the cliff and into the no-man’s land of “Lean Dem” would be someone other than Don Young? Tom Feeney was one of the few representatives tarred with the brush of Abramoff to survive 2006 and then decide to try again in 2008. Until recently, however, with Jack Abramoff disappearing in the rear-view mirror and Feeney safely ensconced in an R+3 district that he designed for himself while in the state legislature, it looked like he was going to skate through.

As Republican fortunes in general started to dwindle this summer, though, Feeney found former state representative Suzanne Kosmas gaining on him. So, he did exactly what any rational politican would do… he issued an ad reminding everyone of his involvement in the Abramoff affair and begging forgiveness for it. Wait… what? That’s not what a rational politician would do? Hmmm.

From that point on, everything seemed to go haywire for Feeney, and another Kosmas internal from last week gave her a head-spinning 58-35 lead over Feeney. This week would have been the time for Feeney to issue his own internal as a rebuttal… and his silence on the matter is extremely telling. Even in a good year for Republicans, this would be a difficult hole for Feeney to climb out of, but this year, it’d be nearly impossible. (C)

FL-25 (M. Diaz-Balart): Lean Republican to Tossup

This one is all about demographics. What was once a Cuban-American GOP stronghold has turned into a pure tossup district, at least according to the latest voter registration numbers. Recent polling shows Diaz-Balart up by only three points and well below 50%, and the DCCC is spending heavily against both Diaz-Balart brothers (while the NRCC has been focusing solely on protecting Lincoln with massive independent expenditures). This one feels hard to predict, making it a perfect tossup. (J)

ID-01 (Sali): Lean Republican to Tossup

Well, here we are – a place I distantly imagined we might possibly reach but am nonetheless quite surprised (and delighted) to be. The race for Idaho’s first Congressional District is a tossup, my friends, and this is a race rating change you can believe in.

Bill Sali has done for Democrats what even the lovechild of FDR and Howard Dean never could have: He’s made a seat that’s supremely conservative extremely competitive. As we’ve explained at great length, Sali is the perfect fuckup, capable of doing no right.

Meanwhile, Dem Walt Minnick has been an ideal candidate running a nearly flawless campaign. He’s scored support from a broad range of conservatives furious with Sali’s antics and ineffectiveness, and he’s picked up endorsements from the region’s most important papers (see here and here). What’s more, the polling (particularly a recent SUSA survey) has shown a tight race. We think Minnick has put himself in an excellent position to win this race and are eager to follow the returns on election night. (D)

KY-03 (Yarmuth): Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic

In any other cycle, this race would have been a barnburner: A popular, longtime incumbent narrowly upset in a wave election by a first-time candidate wages a serious comeback in a swing district. The problem is that this isn’t just any ordinary cycle. Indeed, it’s looking like a vale of tears for all of the Republican retreads who are seeking rematches this year.

But Northup is a special case – she was actually a replacement candidate against John Yarmuth, after her bitterly humiliating primary loss to corrupt Gov. Ernie Fletcher in 2007. Northup’s fundraising network may still be intact, but her political appeal isn’t. Yarmuth, who is proving to be a great fit for this district, has led comfortably in five straight SUSA polls.

Once you factor in top-of-the-ticket excitement in Louisville, the chances of Northup pulling this one off seem remote indeed. Hopefully, with three shattering losses in just twenty-four months, we won’t be seeing much more of Anne any time soon. (D)

NY-24 (Arcuri): Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic

We’ve heard very little all cycle long in this sleepy race. When last we checked in half a year ago, malfunctioning NRCC robot Ken Spain was busy telling the world that Mike Arcuri would be vulnerable unless the DCCC spent its entire $44 million warchest to defend him.

Actual DCCC expenditures on this race? $00,000,000.00. That sort of tells you all you need to know. Rep. Mike Arcuri has raised solidly if not spectacularly ($1.5m), but that’s been more than enough to keep his Republican opponent Richard Hanna at bay. Arcuri is likely to hold this seat for a long time to come. (D)

OH-15 (Open): Tossup to Lean Democratic

After a paper-thin margin in 2006, this R+1 district in Democratic-trending Columbus was considered a prime pickup opportunity. Once incumbent Deborah Pryce decided to flee for the hills (actually, K Street is pretty flat, come to think of it) and county commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy came back for another try, many prognosticators thought this was the Dems’ single-best pickup chance. Subsequent retirements (NY-25) and retirements/sex scandals/untimely deaths/party meltdowns (NY-13) moved it down the list a bit, but it always looked good for the Dems.

The GOP scored big, though, by nailing their desired candidate, moderate state senator Steve Stivers. Polls never showed a big edge for Kilroy, and Kilroy got pinned down with various weird minutiae (like controversies over bids to build a baseball stadium and the radical leftist pamphlet alternative weekly she used to edit) that kept her from building much momentum.

However, the general trend toward the Dems seems to have pushed this race into the Lean Dem column in the last month, with polls moving in Kilroy’s direction and the NRCC, in triage mode, more focused on saving incumbents than open seats. Throw in pro-life independent Don Eckhart making Stivers’ task even more difficult, and this becomes a race where a GOP victory would, at this point, be quite surprising. (C)

OH-18 (Space): Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic

Republicans thumped their chest pretty loudly after 2006 that Democrat Zack Space had a fluke victory and would be quickly dispatched with by a top-tier challenger in 2008. Well, it’s 2008, and we see no top-tier challenger here. We do see a sadsack nobody who has raised a whopping $332,000 in a year and a half since kicking off his campaign. That’s simply not enough to topple a Representative who, by most reviews, has been a good fit for his district and has provided superior constituent services.

Memo to Republicans: Better luck next year. (J)

Just a few responses to comments from old topics that I missed while out of town.

http://swingstateproject.com/s…

Did Kanjorski do something bad?  If not, it seems that the only ones who need to go are Mahoney and Jefferson.

http://swingstateproject.com/s…

Well, granted, Negron ran a strong campaign, as I heard, and they had a really nice slogan for it too (“Punch Foley for Negron”).

http://swingstateproject.com/s…

Do we have evidence about Anzalone-Liszt’s quality other than MS-01?

http://swingstateproject.com/s…

And make those funny EV rules actually worth something!

Also, some funny thoughts about Florida, in response to a comment whose location I forgot:

No one puts faith in Florida.  Here are the rules of dealing with Florida:

1. No one understands Florida.  It does not make sense.

2. Florida does not do what you want it to do.  However, if you expect it not to do what you want it to do, it will do what you want it to do.  But this therefore starts an endless cycle in which you expect it to do either what you want or what you don’t want.

3. Florida has the inexplicable quantum ability to exist in more than one state of affairs simultaneously, allowing statement #2 to be true.  Thus, it is possible to simultaneously win and lose an election.

4. No one puts faith in Florida.  If you do, you are dutily rewarded.  Al Gore put his faith in Florida and he was rewarded with a supreme court decision.  George W. Bush put his faith in Florida and he was rewarded with a Middle Eastern mess, a sinking economy, and the worst presidential disapproval ratings ever.  Christine Jennings put her faith in Florida and she was rewarded with voting problems in Sarasota County.  Katherine Harris put her faith in Florida and she was rewarded with a good ass-whupping courtesy of Bill Nelson.  Heck, I put my faith in Florida and I was rewarded with with classical music stations disappearing from the south Florida radio airwaves, and with Florida being called for Bush with 97% reporting in 2004.

5. Florida also has the ability to create votes from thin air and erase votes into thin air.  No one is ever sure of the numbers, absolute or relative, of each.  These numbers are not necessarily whole; Florida has a record of involving fractions of votes as well.

Back in August, we crunched the voter registration numbers in nine key Florida congressional districts, and found Democrats making big gains in all of them.

The Florida Division of Elections has just posted new numbers for each congressional district, and a quick glance confirms that the trend is continuing big time. Statewide, Democrats have added an additional 200,000 registered voters to their advantage over the GOP since July. But let’s take a look at the same nine districts that we looked at in August.

In the 2006 column, we have the GOP’s voter registration advantage in each district as of October 10th, 2006. In the next column, we have the numbers as of July 28 of this year, followed by the most recent numbers (October 8).  Take a peek:

Wow — for the first time, Democrats now have a partisan advantage in the 8th District, where Democrat Alan Grayson is taking on GOP crumb-bum Ric Keller. Keller is locked in the fight of his political life, and these numbers prove it.

While two of these districts are pretty much off the map in terms of realistic Democratic pick-up opportunities (the 9th CD and the open seat dud in the 15th), the other huge shift can be seen in South Florida, where Democrats are waging tough fights against the Diaz-Balart brothers (the 21st and 25th CDs) and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen in the 18th District. For years, these districts were seen as Republican strongholds, but now, Democrats have chipped away significantly at the GOP’s edge.

Democrats have even made up a lot of ground in the 16th District; it’s just too bad that disgraced Rep. Tim Mahoney has squandered it all.

Full raw numbers for all of these districts are available below the fold.

October 8, 2008:

July 28, 2008:

October 10, 2006:

The Tarrance Group for the NRCC (10/15-16, likely voters, 10/9 in parens):

Tim Mahoney (D-inc): 29 (56)

Tom Rooney (R): 55 (31)

(MoE: ±5.8%)

With numbers that bad, no wonder you’re hearing rumors about Mahoney dropping out of the race. And I don’t think would be a bad call for him — this guy has some serious personal problems that he has to deal with.

Bonus finding: Mahoney’s personal favorable rating has nosedived to 28-53.

What’s especially interesting is that Rooney was getting completely pasted even in the NRCC’s own numbers, pre-scandal. This wasn’t much of a pickup opportunity until Mahoney self-destructed.

Word comes from Politico that Tim Mahoney may, at this late date, decide not to seek re-election, according to “a Democratic leadership aide with ties to his campaign.” (No direct comment from Mahoney’s campaign, of course.)

The article, if you were to create a word cloud, would include such phrases as “paid $121,000 to a former aide,” “threatened to sue Mahoney for sexual harassment,” “allegedly had a second affair,” and “FBI has begun a preliminary investigation.” And Mahoney doesn’t think he can survive all that? Quitter! Bwak bwak bwak bwak…

Well, if this indeed happens, then it seems like we’re looking at a virtual repeat of 2006, where GOP candidate Mark Foley bailed out shortly before the election, and substitute candidate Joe Negron was handicapped by being referred to as “Mark Foley” on the ballot. (And yet Negron barely lost: one more tribute to Mahoney’s political skills.) So this opens up the question: what FL-16 Democrat would get to play the role of “Tim Mahoney” on this year’s ballot? Despite this district’s R+2 lean, it doesn’t seem like we have much of a bench in this district (which is what led to previously-unelected ex-GOPer Mahoney running for us in the first place).

A quick look through the Florida legislature doesn’t seem to indicate any Democratic state senators in the 16th (except possibly for Dave Aronberg (I say ‘possibly’ because there seems to be partial but not total overlap between the 16th and the state districts)) and almost no state representatives (probably Richard Machek, and possibly Shelly Vana). Anyone from the area, please feel free to chip in with other names.

SSP has changed its ratings of four House races today. Here’s what we did:

AZ-03 (Shadegg): Likely Republican to Lean Republican

Despite consistently strong fundraising for Democrat Bob Lord since he entered this race in early 2007, it was hard to see GOP Rep. John Shadegg as an especially ripe target in this R+6 Phoenix-area district.

But Democrats have caught Shadegg off-guard in recent weeks, with both the Lord campaign and the DCCC hitting Shadegg on the airwaves with a series of negative ads (the DCCC alone spending $700K on the race so far). Shadegg has been slow to respond, drawing some ire from DC Republicans who say that he hasn’t taken his race seriously enough.

On top of that, Shadegg has endured several days worth of bad press after he misused the image of a WWII veteran in one of his campaign ads — a blunder that drew an awkward and not totally sincere apology from Shadegg, followed by another blistering response. A recent poll of this race by Anzalone Liszt showed a dead heat, and while that might be optimistic (Research 2000 seems to think so), this race has to be considered in play now.

FL-16 (Mahoney): Lean Democratic to Lean Republican

Hoo boy. After taking the seat of GOP creep Mark Foley in 2006 on a platform of family values, Democrat Tim Mahoney is now caught in an explosive sex and ethics scandal of his own.

Mahoney hasn’t had the smoothest of first terms; he started off with a thud when he said: “Very candidly, this isn’t the greatest job I’ve had.” He also declined to endorse Obama, and infamously said that: “I don’t owe the party anything… If anybody owes anybody anything, it’s Nancy Pelosi who owes a debt to me.” Mahoney may have thought he was providing some needed distance between himself and his party in an R+2 district with such comments, but they only succeeded in making him seem irritable and weird.

For a while it seemed like he’d get away with these behavioral defects, but with the recent leaking of lurid details of a sex scandal with a one-time staffer, a deal to keep her quiet, and audio recordings of a profanity-laced phone call, Mahoney is going to be hard-pressed to wipe off this kind of toxic sludge from himself before November.

IN-09 (Hill): Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic

After three contentious races, the fourth Hill-Sodrel match-up is lacking the energy that it used to have in past years, and this seems to benefit the incumbent.

Sodrel has posted lackluster fundraising numbers all year, and has run a less visible campaign than in previous cycles. A recent SurveyUSA poll gives Hill a 15-point edge, and Research 2000 posted similar results in recent days.

And if there was any doubt that Sodrel needs to shake this race up, a recent plea to include lie detectors at an upcoming debate from Sodrel’s allies seems to be enough to confirm some level of desperation here.

It doesn’t look like we’ll see a comeback from the ‘stache this time.

OH-16 (Open): Tossup to Lean Democratic

Democrats were always high on the chances of John Boccieri, a state senator and Air Force vet who served in Iraq and Afghanistan. While this district does have a Republican lean, it’s been trending in the Democratic direction as of late, and Democrats have put themselves in a good position to pick up this open seat.

Two recent polls (one from Research 2000 and another from SurveyUSA) have given Boccieri 10 and 8-point leads, respectively, but the biggest advantage that Dems have racked up here is in the brute force column. The DCCC has already spent over $1 million defining Schuring in a negative light, while the NRCC is apparently in retreat, cutting back their $820K ad reservation in this district by $320K. When (or if?) that money kicks in, it may be too little, too late to erase the big head start that Boccieri has amassed in this race.

This is ugly:

West Palm Beach Congressman Tim Mahoney (D-FL), whose predecessor resigned in the wake of a sex scandal, agreed to a $121,000 payment to a former mistress who worked on his staff and was threatening to sue him, according to current and former members of his staff who have been briefed on the settlement, which involved Mahoney and his campaign committee.

Mahoney, who is married, also promised the woman, Patricia Allen, a $50,000 a year job for two years at the agency that handles his campaign advertising, the staffers said. […]

Friends of Allen told ABC News that Allen sought to break off the affair when she learned Mahoney was allegedly involved in other extra-marital relationships at the same time.

Her friends say she told them Mahoney threatened that ending the relationship could cost her the job.

You don’t wanna listen to the audio tape, either. Brutal.

(H/T: Dave D)

We wrote earlier about the NRCC canceling ad buys in NV-03 and NM-01, but a knowledgeable friend of SSP writes in with a few more details on the NRCC’s retreat:

FL-16 – NRCC – TV – cancelled flight 10/14-10/20 in West Palm and Ft. Myers

ID-01 – NRCC – TV – Spokane – cancels weeks of 10/7 and 10/14

KS-02 – NRCC – TV – Cancelled flight 10/21-10/27 in all markets

LA-06 – NRCC-TV- Cancelled flight 10/21-10/27 in Baton Rouge

MN-03 – NRCC- TV – cancelled flight 10/14-10/20 in Minneapolis

NV-03 – NRCC – TV – broadcast and cable flights 10/14-10/20 cancelled

TX-22 – NRCC – TV – Cancelled flight 10/14-10/20 in Houston.

The DCCC filed $1.37 million worth in media buys in support of Democratic House candidates tonight. Here’s the damage:

Tonight marks the first time that the DCCC has aired ads in AZ-08, FL-16, KY-02, MD-01, and VA-11.

The lone GOP-friendly media buy comes from the bastards at the American Academy of Ophthalmology, which is dropping cash in support of Republican Bill Cassidy (himself an MD) in his race against Don Cazayoux. See you in hell, eye doctors!

But don’t get the impression that this is one-sided affair just because the NRCC is holding its musket fire. Freedom’s Crotch is up with some ad buys of its own smearing Democrats:

• AL-02: $150,000
  

• IL-11: $430,000
  

• NJ-03: $74,000
  

• NJ-07: $500,000

The Crotch is also spending an unspecified amount on NM-01 and NV-03. Ugh.