Tag: Mike Johanns

Rasmussen sure has a lot of good news for us lately (likely voters, 5/15):

Scott Kleeb (D): 40

Mike Johanns (R): 55

(MoE: ±4%)

This race is definitely one of the longer shots of 2008, but Kleeb at 40% is definitely a strong position for a Nebraska Democrat to start off at, especially against a popular former Governor like Johanns, who is viewed favorably by 65% of the state’s voters.  Kleeb’s favorables are at 56%.

In the Presidential race, McCain leads Obama here by a relatively modest 50-39.  (You may recall that Kerry lost Nebraska by a whopping 66-33.)  Incidentally, Clinton would lose the state by a much wider 57-34.  I wish Rasmussen’s crosstabs would break down the results by congressional district, because I suspect the Omaha-based NE-02 might be in play.

In the opinion of Quinn McCord at the National Journal, a primary between candidates Scott Kleeb and Tony Raimondo will actually bring about more positive than negative results for the eventual nominee. McCord argues that, because both candidates are relatively unknown statewide, a primary will increase exposure for the eventual nominee. So, I'm curious: does the readership here at SSP concur with McCord, or do you think a primary will ultimately bruise the eventual nominee, rendering him weaker against Mike Johanns?

Our hopes for a nasty Republican primary are officially dead:

Republican Jon Bruning has ended his U.S. Senate campaign, deferring to the candidate many consider a prohibitive front-runner, former governor and U.S. Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns.

Nebraska’s attorney general ends his five-month campaign after raising more than $1 million for his bid to replace outgoing Republican Chuck Hagel.

Popular former Governor Mike Johanns (R) has announced that he’s resigning from his position as Agriculture Secretary and returning to Nebraska to run for the open Senate seat being vacated by Chuck Hagel.

http://www.journalst…

“Secretary of Agriculture Mike Johanns has decided to resign from President Bush’s cabinet to return to Nebraska and enter the 2008 Senate race.

Johanns, the former two-term Republican governor, began placing phone calls to a number of friends and supporters in the state Tuesday night to inform them of his decision.

A formal announcement is expected in Nebraska next week after Johanns has submitted his resignation to the White House, according to a source close to Johanns.”

Johanns joins two other prominent GOPers in the state, former Omaha Mayor and former four-term Congressman Hal Daub, who got in the race last week, and Attorney General Jon Bruning, who has been actively campaigning since the spring. Tony Raimondo and Pat Flynn have also announced their intentions to run.

Johanns is widely seen as the strongest possible GOP nominee (some even count him as stronger than Chuck Hagel), and the best person to keep the seat in the Republican Party should former Senator and Governor Bob Kerrey decide to run. Johanns was the mayor of Lincoln, NE when he was elected Governor in 1998, then re-elected in 2002 with 69% of the vote.

In preperation for Johanns expected entry, Jon Bruning released a poll last week that showed himself only nine points down against Johanns in the GOP primary. The same poll, conducted on behalf of Jon Bruning, gave Johanns a fav/unfav of 60%-6%. Rumors in Washington though have Mike Johanns’ internal polling blowing Bruning out of the water.

Strategically speaking, Johanns position also puts prospective candidate Bob Kerrey in a bind. Kerrey has yet to announce his intentions, though he has told the board of his school that his retirement to run for Senate is a possibility. But given Mike Johanns’ popularity and strength in the red state, especially during a Presidential election year, Bob Kerrey may think twice before leaving his job in New York to run–and potentially lose–a Senate race in his home state.

Assuming Johanns wins the GOP nomination, which he is the odds-on favorite to do at this point, in a match-up against Bob Kerrey most pundits will rate the seat as Leans GOP or a toss-up. If Bob Kerrey decides not to run, the nominee would likely be either Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey or NE-03 nominee Scott Kleeb; against either of these candidates, Mike Johanns would be the strong favorite to win.