AK-Sen: Miller, Under 50, Leads McAdams by 8

Public Policy Polling (8/27-28, likely voters, no trend lines):

Scott McAdams (D): 39

Joe Miller (R): 47

Undecided: 14

Scott McAdams (D): 22

Joe Miller (R): 38

Lisa Murkowski (L-inc): 34

Undecided: 6

Scott McAdams (D): 28

Lisa Murkowski (R-inc): 60

Undecided: 12

(MoE: ±2.7%)

Folks, we have ourselves a race here! In a head-to-head matchup against Miller, McAdams trails Miller by only 8 points — that’s about the best poll we’ve seen for a Alaska Democrat this cycle. McAdams holds 81% of Democrats (to Miller’s 73% of Republicans) and splits independents down the middle with Miller at 42% apiece. And that’s before most Alaskans are acquainted with McAdams! Joe Miller has a favorable rating that’s already underwater at 36-52, while McAdams is at 23-24, with 53% claiming “not sure”.

The poll also solidifies that this race would be dead in the water with Murkowski as the Republican nominee. Murkowski has stronger favorables among liberals than she does conservatives, and has a higher approval rating among Dems (52-41) than Republicans (47-47). In a three-way race as a Libertarian, Murkowski would take a plurality of independents (38%), a significant chunk of Democrats (28%) and nearly a third of Republicans (32%). As Tom Jensen notes, Democrats should actually be hoping that Murkowski does not pull the Libertarian trigger, as her supporters align behind McAdams by a 47-23 margin in a two-way race against Miller.

Of course, the dynamics of three-way races are always unpredictable, and as we’re seeing in Florida right now with Charlie Crist’s difficulties, they can present difficult needles to thread for the outsider candidate. However, for the time being, it would appear that Democrats should be hoping that Murkowski loses the final count — and that this stays as a two-way race.

Alaska, Arizona & Vermont Primary Results Thread #4

4:46am: Hm, nope. We’re now at 77% reporting, and Miller’s up by 2,996. That’s it from me, though. Goodnight and good luck!

4:41am: Okay, I lied. With 72% now reporting (the final DoE update for the night), Miller now leads by over 3,100 votes.

4:28am: Final update, I swear! From the ADN:

The final results of the race won’t be known for a week. The Alaska Division of Elections said over 16,000 absentee ballots were requested and as of Monday night 7,600 had been returned. The first count of absentees will be next Tuesday and there will be subsequent counts as they trickle in on Sept. 3 and on Sept. 8.

4:24am: The Anchorage Daily News is tweeting that the Alaska DoE will stop counting votes at 12:30am local (six minutes from now) and will resume in the morning. Hope you have your morning coffee ready!

4:00am: One final update from the SSP Rocky Mountain Headquarters: We’re up to 66% of the vote reporting in Alaska, and Joe Miller’s lead has shot up to 2,881 votes (still 52-48). Who knows how long it’ll take to sort this one out. The last time we covered a close Alaska primary, we ended up liveblogging for 24 hours.

3:22am: We’re going to call it a night at SSP. Before we go, though, a quick Alaska update: 51% are reporting (not much change over the last hour), and Miller’s lead is 52-48, by 2,300 votes. Based on half-assed piecing-apart of the legislative districts (y’know, it seems like once every two years I really find myself wishing that Alaska had counties), though, that lead may be kind of fragile as more rural areas start to report more. But we’ll know more tomorrow.

3:20am: A few minutes ago the AP finally called AZ-03 for Ben Quayle, who wins with an overwhelming mandate of 23%. He’ll face Dem Jon Hulburd in November. Also just noticed the AP called, at some point, AZ-Sen D for Rodney Glassman, who wins with 35% and will face John McCain.

2:50am: And it looks like they’ve just shut it down for the night in Vermont, with no clear victor in the Dem gubernatorial primary. They’re still stalled at 232 of 260 precincts.

2:49am: 94% reporting in AZ-03, but still no call. It’s still Ben Quayle at 23, with 18 for Steve Moak, and 17 for Jim Waring and Vernon Parker each.

2:47am: Sean Parnell has been called the victor in the GOP gubernatorial primary. It wasn’t that overwhelming, though: also exactly 50% of the vote, with Bill Walker pulling in 34%.

2:45am: Almost exactly half reporting in Alaska, and the Miller lead continues to grow very slightly: he’s up to a 2,200 vote lead, good for a 52-48 margin. Whoever wins will face Scott McAdams; the Sitka mayor has been called by the AP as winner of the Dem primary (with 50% of the vote).

2:14am: With 36% reporting, it’s still 51-49 for Miller over Murkowski. The lead is up to 1,200 votes. Interestingly, though (if I’m reading this map correctly), it seems like the Mat-Su Valley (the most conservative part of the state, including Wasilla, home of Miller’s most famous endorsers) has mostly reported (based on state House districts 12 and 15). The Bush (which if you remember your 2008 history, where Young’s victory eventually came from) reports later, and they might be less teabaggish and more pork-friendly out there.

2:00am: The last uncalled GOP primary in Arizona is AZ-03, although we’re up to 81% reporting. Ben Quayle is still leading, by that same 23-18-18 margin over Jim Waring and Steve Moak.

1:45am: One other call: the AP call the GOP primary in AZ-01 for rogue dentist Paul Gosar. He’ll face Ann Kirkpatrick. He wins with only 31%, beating Sydney Hay at 23 and Rusty Bowers at 14.

1:42am: The AP has called Don Young’s GOP primary for him, beating Sheldon Fisher with 70%. He’ll face Dem Harry Crawford in November.

1:41am: We’re up to 33% reporting in Alaska, and it’s still 51-49 for Miller over Murkowski, with a 1,000 vote lead for Miller. (Well, 1,002, if you want to get technical.)


Arizona, Florida, and Vermont Primary Results Thread #3

1:35am: Follow us over here.

1:34am: And yet another lead change in Vermont. Now Peter Shumlin is back on top by 121 votes over Doug Racine, thanks to only two more precints reporting (now 232 out of 260).

1:28am: Meanwhile, back in Arizona, the AP has called the AZ-08 GOP primary for Jesse Kelly, who unexpectedly beats establishment favorite Jonathan Paton 49-40.

1:26am: We’ve moved up to 29% reporting; Miller still leads Murkowski by about 500.

1:24am: Via the Twitter, Taniel is reminding us that Don Young trailed early in the GOP 2008 primary (against now-Gov. Parnell), and came back slowly as the late precincts from the Bush (where they like and in fact depend on their pork, and thus love the old-school Alaska politicians, in which category Murkowski seems to fall) trickled in.

1:20am: At least the indestructible Don Young is cruising; he leads the AK-AL GOP primary over Sheldon Fisher 70-24.

1:18am: We’ve got gubernatorial results in Alaska too. On the Dem side, Ethan Berkowitz is leading, though maybe not as big a margin as expected; he leads Hollis French 48-42. On the GOP side, Sean Parnell also leading by a not overwhelming margin, 48 over 35 for Bill Walker and 14 for Ralph Samuels.

1:15am: Wow, this is big. We’re just getting the first Alaska results (via the state site, the AP has nothing) and we’ve got a real race in the AK-Sen GOP primary. Joe Miller leads Lisa Murkowski 51-49, with 27% reporting (119 of 438).

1:11am: We’re rounding the halfway mark in AZ-Sen D (1100 out of 2239), and it’s looking like Rodney Glassman is on track to face John McCain. He’s at 35, with Cathy Eden at 28, J. Dougherty at 24, and Randy Parraz back at 13.

1:09am: The AP has called AZ-05, where David Schweikert is still at 39% atop a crowded field. That’s with only 38% reporting, but he’s well ahead of Susan Bitter Smith, at 25.

1:07am: Contrast that with Arizona, where nothing interesting has happened since the initial rollout of votes. In AZ-01, we’re up to 66% reporting, and it’s still the exact same, with Paul Gosar over Sydney Hay 32-23. Rusty Bowers, who on paper seemed like he should have been the frontrunner thanks to his long-ago legislative tenure and then his duties lobbying on behalf of the sand and gravel industry, is in 4th place at 14, trailing B. Beauchamp.

1:03am: I don’t think this Vermont race could get any closer if we tried. Doug Racine pulled back into the lead, by a whopping 13 votes over Peter Shumlin. That’s with 230 out of 260 precincts reporting (88% in).

1:00am: In AZ-03, we’re up to 48% reporting. Looks like Ben Quayle going crying to mommy and daddy may have saved him in the end; he’s still holding at 23, beating Jim Waring and Steve Moak, both at 18.

12:51am: The Peter Shumlin lead is declining a bit in Vermont: he’s up by 45 now, 16,401 to 16,366 over Doug Racine, with Deb Markowitz at 15,621. (That’s 25-25-24.) 88% are reporting.

12:29am: We’re up to 35% reporting in AZ-03, and Ben Quayle has inched up to 23%, ahead of Waring at 19% and Moak at 18%. A Quayle win would certainly breathe a bit of life into well-financed Democrat Jon Hulbard’s campaign…

12:25am: Shumlin’s lead is now down to 75 votes (over Racine). Markowitz trails by 768 votes.

12:21am: Smoke ’em if you got em, fellow Swingnuts.

12:17am: Over in AZ-06, GOP incumbent Jeff Flake is at a somewhat underwhelming 67% against his Some Dude opponent.

12:11am: Get your Florida election law on. Automatic recounts are the name of the game if the final margin is less than 0.5%. In FL-24, Adams leads SnakesinaPool by 0.8% with one measly precinct outstanding.

12:05am: Not much has happened in the Arizona House Races. Gosar’s lead in AZ-01 is 10% of 5,500 votes with 51% reporting; nothing else new from AZ-03, 05, or 08.

12:03am: Shumlin’s now up to a 250-vote lead in VT-Gov, which is probably the largest lead of the night. Markowitz is still about 550 behind Racine.

12:00am: Still no call in FL-24, where we’re missing only one precinct in Brevard County. The last one added no votes, leaving Adams’ lead at 560, or 0.85%. SSP Legal is looking to Florida’s recount laws…

11:54pm: In AZ-Sen (D), we’re at 19% reporting; Glassman leads Eden 35-29, with Parraz in a distant fourth at 12.

11:48pm: More precincts keep flowing (dripping) in Vermont, where Racine is now 49 votes behind Shumlin. Markowitz is another 618 votes behind with 85% in.

11:46pm: Just two precincts left outstanding in FL-24, where Sandy Adams continues to hold her 560-vote lead over Karen SnakesInAPool (TM) Diebel, though both of them are in reptile-infested Brevard County.

11:41pm: Checking in on the Arizona house races, Paul Gosar has a 33-22 over retread Sydney Hay in AZ-01; Ben Quayle has a 22-19-18 lead over Jim Waring and Steve Moak in AZ-03. Dave Schweikert’s seem to have done fine despite his recanted hubris, leading Susan Bitter Smith by 6,000 votes or 39-25 in their AZ-05 rematch; the teabaggish Jesse Kelly has a 50-39 lead over establishment pick Jonathan Paton in AZ-08.

11:37pm: Back in VT-Gov, Peter Shumlin has now taken a 126-vote lead over Doug Racine; Deb Markowitz has now fallen another 526 votes back.

11:34pm: The Glass Man is up to 36-29 over Eden. Over in AZ-08, Kelly leads Paton by 50-39. In AZ-01, it’s 33-23 for rogue dentist Gosar over Sydney Hay.

11:31pm: We’d be remiss if we didn’t mention the one other competitive statewide race in Florida, the AG race on both sides. For the Dems, state Sen. Dan Gelber beat fellow state Sen. Dave Aronberg (who the DCCC had tried to lure into FL-16), 59-41. And on the GOP side, Sarah Palin-approved Pam Bondi beat Charlie Crist’s estranged Lt. Governor, Jeff Kottkamp, 38-33.

11:28pm: Well, that was fast. The AP has called AZ-Sen R for John McCain! (Good news!)

11:20pm: In the 5th, David Schweikert leads Susan Bitter Smith and Jim Ward 39-25-23. And in the 8th, this may be the big surprise of the night: teabagger Jesse Kelly is leading NRCC fave Jonathan Paton by a pretty wide 55-40.

11:19pm: In the House races, Paul Gosar’s over Sydney Hay 36-23 in the 1st. In the 3rd, Ben Quayle is leading 22-19-18 over Jim Waring and Steve Moak.

11:17pm: Finally, some data’s trickling in from Arizona. (Check out the SoS site, not the AP.) John McCain is crushing J.D. Hayworth 60-30. Rodney Glassman has a small lead over Cathy Eden, 33-31. (Randy Parraz is in 4th.)

11:12pm: Check out the raging enthusiasm with which the RGA greeted Rick Scott’s awesome victory!

“Rick Scott is the nominee, the general election has begun, and our party now looks forward.”

11:11pm: Switching back over to Vermont, now that we’re pretty much done with Florida and Arizona hasn’t given us anything yet. It’s Racine and Shumlin both at 25 (Racine up by 43 votes) with Markowitz at 24.

11:07pm: This just gets tastier and tastier. McCollum isn’t conceding yet. He’s saying “this’ll go into the wee hours of the morning.”


Predictions Thread

Polls close in less than an hour in select locations, so let’s hear some predictions! Can Bill McCollum beat free-spending Rick Scott by virtue of being less unlikeable in the Florida governor’s race? Can Jeff Greene sail his vomit-covered yacht through the rapidly closing window in the Florida Senate race? Can J.D. Hayworth help you get free government grant money?

Closing times tonight:

Florida: 7 pm ET (except: 7 pm CT/8 pm ET in the Panhandle)

Vermont: 7 pm ET

Oklahoma: 7 pm CT/8 pm ET

Arizona: 7 pm MST/10 pm ET

Alaska: 8 pm local/midnight ET (except: 8 pm local/1 am ET in the Aleutians)

August Primaries to Watch

After a slow few weeks in late June and July, August promises to be quite exciting, primary-wise!

Here are some races to watch in August:


MO-Sen (R) – Blunt v. teabagger

MO-04 (R) – Free-for-all

MO-07 (R) – open seat

Proposition C – It’s about NULLIFICATION!

KS-Sen (R) – Moran/Tiahrt

KS-01, 04 (R) – open seats

KS-03 (R) – Yoder v. Lightner

KS-04 (D) – will Raj Goyle get VicRawl’d?

MI-Gov (D), (R)

MI-01, 02, 03 (R) – open seats

MI-07 (R) – Rooney/Walberg

MI-09 (R) – Rocky v. Welday

MI-12 (D)

MI-13 (D) – Kilpatrick weak

8/5: (hey, two primaries in one week!)

TN-Gov (R) – open seat

TN-03 (R) – Wamp’s open seat

TN-04 (R) – clusterfuck

TN-06 (R) – open seat

TN-08 (R) – Kirkland v. Flinn

TN-09 (D) – impending Willie Herenton fail


CT-Gov (D) and (R) – Lamont/Malloy and Fedele/Foley

CT-Sen (R) – ghost of Rob Simmons?

CT-02, 04, 05 (R)

CO-Gov (R) – McInnis and Maes double fail

CO-Sen (D) – Bennet v. Romanoff

CO-Sen (R) – the devil wears prada?

CO-03, 07 (R)

GA-Gov (R)Palin Handel v. Newt Deal

GA-07, 12 (R) – more runoffs

GA-09 (R) – Graves v. Hawkins round 3

MN-Gov (D) – Dayton v. Kelliher




WY-Gov (D), (R)


AZ-Sen (D), (R)

AZ-03 (R) – Shadegg’s open seat

AZ-01, 05, 08 (R)

VT-Gov (D)

FL-Gov (R) – (yes!!!!!!)

FL-Sen (D) – Meek v. Greene

FL-12, 25 (R) – open seats

FL-02, 08, 22, 24 (R)

FL-02 (D) – challenge to a Blue Dog from the left, v4.1

FL-17 (D) – Meek’s open seat

AK-Gov (R) – Parnell and the ghost of Palin?

AK-Sen (R) – Murkowski v. Palin proxy


LA-Sen (R) – Vitter v. Traylor

LA-02 (D) – Lafonta v. Richmond

LA-03 (R)

WV-Sen (D), (R) – Byrd special primary

SSP Daily Digest: 4/21 (Morning Edition)

  • CA-Sen: Just a day after President Obama did three fundraisers for her campaign, Sen. Barbara Boxer says she expects the POTUS to be back next month for another event in San Francisco.
  • FL-Sen: The US Attorney’s Office, the FBI and the IRS are all investigating the possible misuse of credit cards by state Republican Party officials – a case which has already led to the indictment of former House Speaker Ray Sansom. In a separate investigation, the IRS is looking at Marco Rubio’s tax records to see if he misused his party credit cards for personal expenses. Meanwhile, state Rep. Tom Grady becomes the latest Charlie Crist ally to pull away from the campaign.
  • PA-Sen: PoliticsPA says that, according to a source, Joe Sestak’s week-long TV ad buy is “worth” $930,000. It’s not clear to me whether that’s how much Sestak is actually spending, though – it’s possible to lock in lower rates by reserving time in advance, which his campaign may have done here (thus inflating the “worth” of the buy). Meanwhile, in an email to supporters, Sestak is decrying Arlen Specter’s attacks on his service in the Navy as “Swift Boat-like.”
  • ME-Gov: Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D) for Libby Mitchell (4/11-14, likely voters, no trendlines):
  • Libby Mitchell (D): 36

    Steve Rowe (D): 16

    Pat McGowan (D): 13

    John Richardson (D): 4

    Rosa Scarcelli (D): 3

    (MoE: ±4%)

    If these names – all of whom are running in the Maine Democratic gubernatorial primary – aren’t familiar to you, follow the link to the Hotline for some background details.

  • MN-Gov: Dem Matt Entenza is going up on the air with TV and radio ads after the DFL’s statewide convention this weekend – but of course, no word on the size of the buy. Speaking of the convention, things are about to either get very interesting or a lot simpler in the MN gubernatorial race. Entenza and ex-Sen. Mark Dayton, who can both self-fund, are both saying they’ll fight on through the primary, while the two apparent frontrunners, state House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher and Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak, are pledging to abide by the convention’s endorsement.
  • AL-05: Notorious turncoat Rep. Parker Griffith is still sitting on $20K that various Democratic lawmakers have given him, supposedly because they haven’t asked for it back. This includes money from Rahm Emanuel, Nydia Velazquez, Rosa DeLauro and the retiring Bart Gordon, among others. Gordon, for what can only be bizarre, unspecified reasons, isn’t asking for his money back. Rahm, since he’s serving in the White House, won’t make a formal request, but twists the knife, saying “Whether the contribution is returned or not will be left up to Rep. Griffith’s conscience.” As for the rest of you dudes, DEMAND YOUR MONEY BACK!
  • CA-19: SurveyUSA (4/16-19, likely voters, 3/15-17 in parens):
  • Jeff Denham (R): 27 (25)

    Jim Patterson (R): 26 (26)

    Richard Pombo (R): 16 (13)

    Larry Westerlund (R): 6 (7)

    Undecided: 25 (29)

    (MoE: ±3.6%)

    Loraine Goodwin (D): 18 (14)

    John Estrada (D): 15 (24)

    Les Marsden (D): 10 (8)

    Undecided (D): 56 (54)

    (MoE: ±4.9%)

    Seriously, of all the races they could poll? I realize this is on behalf of a media client, but still.

  • DC-AL, UT-AL: Sigh. Legislation which would have given the District of Columbia an actual voting seat in the House is yet again being derailed. Republicans insist that any such bill also eviscerate any remaining gun control laws in the district, and they’ve frightened enough conservative Dems into supporting such an amendment that you can’t have one (the voting rights bill) without the other (the gun provision). The pro-gun measure has become even more absurd, though, such that Del. Eleanor Holmes Norton asked Steny Hoyer to pull the bill altogether. On the Senate side, Orrin Hatch had spazzed about the fact that the bill’s other sop to Republicans (a temporary extra seat for Utah) would have been at at-large district – he wants to be able to re-draw the lines (and presumably screw Dem Rep. Jim Matheson) – and said he was glad the bill got scuttled.
  • HI-01: The D-Trip just spent another $55K on a second negative TV ad attacking Charles Djou, which you can see here. Meanwhile, in light of recent polling showing this unusual jungle race to be incredibly tight, SSP is changing its rating from “Lean Dem” to “Tossup.
  • MI-01: Term-limited Dem state Rep. Gary McDowell will apparently run to succeed Bart Stupak. McDowell is from the Upper Peninsula, which Crisitunity aptly described as the district’s “cultural center of gravity.” One possible holdup, though, is that it sounds like McDowell may be willing to defer to former House Democratic Floor Leader Pat Gagliardi, who has not yet made up his mind.
  • NY-29: Dem Matthew Zeller, tapped by county leaders as the Democratic nominee in the (potential) special election to succeed Eric Massa, formally launched his campaign on Monday. However, it’s starting to look like there won’t be a special election after all, which means there will be a primary. If that winds up being the case, businessman David Nachbar (who withdrew his name from consideration for the special) has said he might run.
  • WV-01: Rep. Alan Mollohan is going on the air with a TV ad that attacks his primary opponent, state Sen. Mike Oliverio, “for his ties to a conservative-leaning organization of state legislators.” Oliverio had previously launched an ad attacking Mollohan on ethical grounds. No word on the size of either buy.
  • Alaska: Alaska’s state legislature voted to increase its size, by two seats in the Senate and four in the House. AK’s population has tripled since statehood fifty years ago, but its lege had remained constant in numbers. What’s more, its rural districts are enormous, and would have gotten even larger after redistricting as the population concentrates in the state’s few big cities.
  • Polling: Reid Wilson, diving into recent FEC reports, notes that few Dems commissioned polls in the first quarter of this year – and among those who have, pretty much no one is sharing the data with the public. However, Reid doesn’t say whether Republicans have spent similarly on internal polling in the past quarter, or how Q1 2010 compares with prior years.
  • RNC: God bless Michael Steele. Under his stewardship, the RNC decided to blow $340K to hold a big staff meeting in… Hawaii. Because that’s both convenient and inexpensive. If Dems suffer anything less than an utter blowout this fall, we’ll be able to thank Steele in no small part.
  • WATN?: Former Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick, who already served 99 days in jail for obstruction of justice (among other things), may be headed back to prison for probation violations (including hiding assets).
  • AK-Gov, AK-Sen, Pres: Shenanigans.

    Dang, that word is funny.

    So, as we all know already, we’ve got Alaska Governor Sarah Palin and Lieutenant Governor Sean Parnell on one side of the Alaska Republican Party, and Representative Don Young and former Senator Ted Stevens on the other side, and they clearly dislike each other.

    What with the AK Republicans (officially), headed by Palin, pumping out hot air calling for Begich to resign, it seems that (according to info from here and Politics1.com) that Young might even be taking Begich’s side in this dispute.  Not to mention that Begich (easily) called Palin’s bluff on the resignation request.

    And of course, the best part of this is that Young now wants Stevens to primary Palin.  Battle of the century, eh?

    Is this fun? [y/n]

    More discussion/questions below the fold.

    Also, has Palin “overmisestimated” her own political capital?  How much pull do Young and Stevens still have?  Does Lisa Murkowski’s now-pretty-good favorables actually show that voters are done with the whole “anti-Frank-Murkowski/Don-Young/Ted-Stevens” mood?

    And what if Stevens actually were to primary Palin?  Who might win the primary, and how bloody would it be, and who do we have waiting in our wings?  What’s the likelihood that Stevens would actually do this?  (Somehow I think he won’t.)

    And if he doesn’t, would the Stevens wing of the R party have anyone else to run?  I hear that the Alaska legislature doesn’t seem to like Palin that much these days…

    And is Parnell up for more shenanigans next year?

    And is shenanigans a funny word?

    AK-Sen, AK-Gov: Statewide Recuitment Thread

    During each weekday this month, we’ll be posting a new open thread for every state featuring a senatorial or gubernatorial contest, and asking for your thoughts on who should run.

    Alaska will feature two statewide contests of note — the gubernatorial race featuring Sarah Palin, and the Senate contest featuring incumbent Republican Lisa Murkowski.

    So whom do you like for challengers to these seats? As David said the first time we did this, don’t be afraid to think creatively:

    Don’t limit yourself to politicians. Businesspeople, community leaders, activists – even athletes or celebrities (think Heath Shuler or Al Franken) – are all fair game. Even seemingly outlandish suggestions are welcome. Would you have ever predicted that the guitarist from Orleans would now be a Congressman-elect?

    Have at it. Alabama to come tomorrow.

    AK-AL Results Thread #3

    437 of 438 Precincts Reporting
    Candidate Votes Percent
    Don Young 42,539 45.47%
    Sean Parnell 42,387 45.31%
    Gabrielle LeDoux 8,618 9.21%

    RESULTS: AP (House) | AP (Senate) | AK Division of Elections | ADN.com

    11:50PM: Here are the exact numbers of outstanding sample ballots: 204 in Petersburg and 53 in Wrangell. Fenumiai also expects “between 5,000 and 10,000 questioned ballots to be counted Sept. 5” and as many as “8000-plus” absentee ballots (though it’s likely that this number is smaller rather than larger).

    9:41PM: In the comments, ChuckinSeattle makes a great observation on the outstanding votes in Wrangell and Petersburg, where officials ran out of regular ballots and instead allowed voters to use sample ballots — Young won the reported votes in Petersburg by 158-135, and Wrangell by 158-75. So there’s a very good chance that these special ballots will help pad the Donald’s margin. But how will the outstanding absentee ballots break? That could be anyone’s guess.

    5:53PM: At this precious time, it’s worth noting who is in charge of oversight at the Alaska Division of Elections. Why, you guessed it: Sean Parnell himself! Let’s hope he doesn’t pull another Katherine Harris here.

    5:46PM: Wow, this could go on for another couple of weeks:

    But absentee and questioned ballots won’t be counted until Sept. 5. Also, the division of elections ran out of Republican primary ballots in Petersburg and Wrangell late Tuesday afternoon. Republican voters in those Southeast Alaska towns were then allowed to vote using sample ballots, which are valid, but they won’t be counted until the state election review board starts its work on Sept. 8, Fenumiai said.

    She said she didn’t know how many people in Wrangell and Petersburg voted using those sample ballots. It’s also unclear how many absentee ballots will be counted in the race. The state mailed out over 16,200 and has received about 7,600 back.

    “So there’s still a potential for 8,000-plus of those to come back,” Fenumiai said.

    She said some of the absentees were counted Tuesday, but she didn’t know how many. The state won’t be counting any more absentees until Sept. 5, Fenumiai said.

    Awesome. This is set to be a long, drawn-out, bitter process.

    5:39PM: With just a single precinct (and presumably a bunch of absentee ballots) remaining, Young is now up by 152 votes. Wow. Young may be a crumb-bum, but he’s OUR crumb-bum today.

    12:06PM: From the Anchorage Daily News:

    Most of the precincts that hadn’t reported election results as of midnight were from rural Alaska villages. Those are “typical Young strongholds,” Anderson said. But Parnell wasn’t convinced Young was going to clean up in the Bush, especially given many rural residents might choose to vote in Tuesday’s Democratic primary instead of Republican contest.

    There are also the 16,000 absentee ballots the division of elections mailed out. It has received back 7,600 of them and Gail Fenumiai, director of the state division of elections, said she didn’t know how many of those have been counted. As long as the absentee ballots were postmarked Tuesday, the division will continue to count them for the next 10 days. Questioned ballots will be counted on Sept. 5.

    12:00PM ET: Time for a fresh new thread. I know you all want to keep discussing these stunning results!

    AK-AL, AK-Sen Primary Results Thread #2

    429 of 438 Precincts Reporting
    Candidate Votes Percent
    Don Young 42,461 45.48%
    Sean Parnell 42,316 45.32%
    Gabrielle LeDoux 8,589 9.20%

    RESULTS: AP (House) | AP (Senate) | AK Division of Elections | ADN.com

    12:06PM: I’m awake and alive. Let’s keep this party going over in thread #3.

    9:59AM (David): Wow. With 97.9% of all precincts counting, Don Young has taken a 145-vote lead. Let’s pray it holds.

    6:27AM: Alright, one more update. Parnell’s lead has shrunk to 142 votes with 89% reporting.

    6:04AM: My friends, I am zonked. We’ll sort this mess out in the morning. Goodnight, all!

    5:51AM: With just under 86% of precincts reporting, Young has cut the deficit to just 213 votes. In other news, I can’t believe I’m still awake.

    5:17AM: Young has inched back a bit closer, trailing Parnell by 263 votes with 84% counted. They don’t come any closer than this.

    4:53AM: Parnell gains back a bit of precious ground — he’s now up by 367 votes with 76% counted.

    4:47AM: Well, things seem to have screeched to a stop, so I wouldn’t blame anyone for deciding to hit the hay right now. I’m going to give this a few more minutes, myself.

    4:28AM: If there was any doubt, just ask the locals:

    Most of the uncounted precincts are in rural Alaska villages, where Young has traditionally enjoyed strong support.

    4:20AM: Our back of the cocktail napkin analysis reveals that Young will have to run roughly 0.7% better in the two-candidate vote in the outstanding precincts in order to win. Entirely doable.

    4:05AM: By “popular demand”, SSP is calling AK-Sen for Ted Stevens and Mark Begich. Our number crunchers are also coloring a gigantic imaginary red check mark beside Ethan Berkowitz’s name.

    3:55AM: Getting closer — Parnell is up by just 230 votes. Come on, you old bastard!

    3:51AM ET: Time for a fresh new thread.