Tag: NJ-02

The Northeast (Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island & Vermont) has been sharply trending towards the Democratic party for some years now. Increasingly at a State and Federal level Republicans are finding it harder to get elected in the Northeast, be they conservatives or moderates, particularly in statewide races. And this years election seems certain to thin out their ranks even further.

We now have 7/9 Governors, 14/18 Senators and 51/65 House Districts!

Below the line for a look at the 14 GOP held House Races in the Northeast in 2008.

Well now 14 members of that most endangered of species the Northeast House Republican. And can you believe 5 open races in more or less Democrat friendly districts – WOW!

And so on with the show:

CT-04 – D+5 – Shays

It is appropriate that the first race we look at is one of the most competitive, CT-04, pitting Chris Shays against our guy Jim Himes. This one will be a barnburner which makes it curious that I can’t find any polling of the district. Located in the Southwest part of the state it overlaps the New York media market and many people who live in the 4th commute to NYC for work.

As the only GOP survivor in New England Shays seems to be popular but as the Iraq war becomes increasingly unpopular Shays’ fervent support for the war and the President himself makes this one race to watch. Both candidates are cashed up and either could win.

CT-04 is one of 8 districts carried by Kerry in 2004 occupied by a House Republican.  

DE-AL – D+7 – Castle

GOP incumbent Mike Castle is considered safe and I see no reason to not beileve that. Whilst Dem Karen Hartley-Nagle will run a solid campaign this district is unlikely to flip this time around. Of more interest to me is whether Castle will switch parties after the election or retire in 2010 (He had a stroke in 2006). Or if Lt Gov John Carney or Attorney General Beau Biden have a crack Castle may be vulnerable if he runs again in 2010.

DE-AL is another of the 8 districts that Kerry carried in 2004 occupied by a House Republican and in fact this is the district with the highest Kerry vote – 57% – occupied by a Republican.

NJ-02 – D+4.0 – LoBiondo

LoBiondo doged a bullet when Democratic State Senator Jeff Van Drew opted not to run against him in this district that Bush won by less than 1% and that is occupied by 2 Democratic State Senators.

Our candidate David Kurkowski will have a real slog to get this race on the radar with the open races in the 3rd and 7th. Look for Van Drew to run and win in 2010.

NJ-03 – D+3.3 – OPEN

The first of our open races this one sees Democratic State Senator John Adler running against Chris Myers. Bush won this district 51-49 and Adler has a massive COH advantage – 1.46M to 155K. Polling indicates a tight race but I expect Adler to win comfortably as he is well known through the district and genuinely popular.

NJ-04 – R+0.9 – Smith

This central Jersey district was won by Bush in 2004 56 to 44 but was won by Gore in 2000 50 to 46. With a plethora of other competitive races around this one has not been on the radar and probably won’t be. Josh Zeitz is to be applauded for having a go but 2008 probably won’t be his year. 2010 maybe?

NJ-05 – R+4 – Garrett

A district that shouldn’t be on the radar is so largely because our guy Dennis Shulman is a blind rabbi who has been getting a lot of media attention. Won by Bush in 2004 57-43 this is one of two districts in New Jersey that are considered generically safe for Repubs. If Shulman can pull it off then expect a lot of house districts to be picked up by us on election day. Shulman is down 3 to 1 in COH which is ok but he really needs to step up the fundraising.

NJ-07 – R+1 – OPEN

Another open race this one pits 2006 candidate Democrat Linda Stender against State Senator Leonard Lance. Michael Hsing, a conservative republican is also running as an independent which will take votes from Lance. Both camps have released polls that show their candidate is winning. Despite the fact that Bush won this district 53-47 in 2004 I expect Stender to win at her second time at bat as she only lost by about 1000 votes in 2006. Stender has a massive COH advantage – 1.2M-88K btw and that can only help!

NJ-11 – R+6 – Frelinghuysen

This district that Bush won 58-42 in 2004 is the safest GOP in New Jersey and unlikely to flip. Our guy, 2006 candidate Tom Wyka, is putting in a valiant effort but will most likely fall short. This district is a rarity in the Northeast, a safe GOP district.

NY-03 – D+2.1 – King

This Long Island based district is not on the radar for 2008. Democrat Graham Long hasn’t set the world on fire and won’t with all of the oxygen being sucked up by the 13th. This race may have been competitive if 2006 candidate Dave Mejias had run again be he is running for the State Senate instead 🙁 Look for Nassau County Executive Tom Suozzi or Mejias to run in 2010. King has said that he will running in the gubernatorial race in 2010 so we should pick this one up then.

NY-13 – D+1 – OPEN

No race in the country has been more of a soap opera than NY-13. I will spare you the details and say simply this. Democratic candidate Michael McMahon will win and win big over a divided dispirited Republican party and their 3rd tier candidate. McMahon is even endorsed by GOP powerbroker Guy Molinari. And he lives on Staten Island a vital prerequisite in this district unlike his republican opponent. Chalk this one up as a win for team blue.

NY-23 – R+0.2 – McHugh

John McHugh is a safe bet for re-election here over a low profile candidate, Mile Oot. The attenton in upstate New York will all be focused on the 25th, 26th and 29th. Sheesh even the unions endorse McHugh who seems genuinely popular. He was rumoured to be retiring in 2008 and may do so in 2010. Either way expect a competitive race here in 2010 not 2008.

NY-25 – D+3 – OPEN

Democrat Dan Maffei never stopped running since 2006 and is considered very likely to win this open seat over Republican Dale Sweetland. He has about $1M COH and of course upstate New York is rapidly bluing. The one poll I have seen had Maffei only a point in front but that was back in April. I think that the NRCC has given up here and with good reason, Dan’s gonna win. NY-25 is one of 8 districts carried by Kerry in 2004 occupied by a House Republican.  

NY-26 – R+3 – OPEN

There was a huge shock here when Democrat Kryzan won a bloody primary over DCCC preferred Jon Powers. Nonetheless Kryzan came out reasonably clean and may well pull it off in a district where Bush won 55-43 in 2004. Kryzan needs to step up her fundraising a lot but again the DCCC has weighed with advertising expenditure. When we see some polling we will get a better sense of how this one is playing but this district is still very much in play as Gopper Chris Lee hasn’t exactly set the world on fire. Watch this space.

NY-29 – R+5 – Kuhl

Democratic 2006 candidate Eric Massa is back for a rematch in this upstate district that is the most GOP friendly district in New York. Bush won 56-42 in 2004. Don’t discount Massa though as incumbent Randy “shotgun” Kuhl is certainly vulnerable (and repellant). Haven’t seen any public polling here but the candidates are basically at parity in terms of COH and the DCCC is stumping up for advertising big time. Expect a close race.

So whilst the Northeast won’t provide much excitement at the Presidential level this year the House races (and Senate BTW) will be all the fun of the fair. I think that we will probably win between 4 and 7 of these races further decimating an already shredded GOP. The Northeast is well on the way to becoming a one party region and this year will see further shifts in that direction.

• NJ-02: Democrats have finally bagged a challenger to take on entrenched GOP Rep. Frank LoBiondo: Cape May City Councilor and businessman David Kurkowski.  Local Dems cited Kurkowski’s ability to fundraise in their endorsement of his candidacy.  

  While dislodging LoBiondo would be a tough task, we should be able to count on Kurkowski to hold the incumbent’s feet to the fire in this D+4 district.  Kurkowski has pledged to wage a “vigorous campaign” that will tie LoBiondo to George Bush and his support for the war in Iraq.  If we’re lucky, an aggressive campaign by Kurkowski could help split Republican resources in a state where the GOP will already be defending two open seats, and quite possibly the seat of ultra-conservative Rep. Scott Garrett in NJ-05. (H/T: Blue Jersey)

• MS-01: GOP primary run-off loser and former Tupelo Mayor Glenn McCullough issued a non-endorsement endorsement of the Republican nominee, Southaven Mayor Greg Davis:
  

  He also urged fellow Republicans to “unite behind all three of our nominees in North Mississippi – Senator Cochran, Senator Wicker and Mayor Davis. We have come too far as a state to turn back now.”

  But McCullough spokesman Brad Davis said the statement was “absolutely not” a personal endorsement of the runoff winner.

  When asked if it was a show of support for the party and not the person, Brad Davis said, “That’s a good way to put it.”

  Davis will face off with Democrat Travis Childers in an April 22nd special election.  If no candidate receives 50% of the vote, there will be a May 13th runoff.  (Meaning that, to fill the open seat of Roger Wicker, voters in MS-01 might be going to the polls four times to determine the winner.)  Regional rivalry may play a role here — Davis is from the fast-growing DeSoto County, a suburban area near Memphis, while Childers hails from the more rural Prentiss County.  If Childers can consolidate the non-DeSoto vote and keep Democratic enthusiasm high, this race could be a surprise worth watching.

• LA-06: Democrat Don Cazayoux just picked up another endorsement in the special election to replace retiring GOP Rep. Richard Baker — this time from the National Rifle Association (from the House Race Hotline):
  

  The NRA on 4/3 endorsed Cazayoux. The NRA gave Cazayoux an “A” and urged all members, gun owners and sportsmen to vote for Cazayoux. Cazayoux: “I’m proud to have the endorsement of NRA and the million of gun owners and sportsmen they represent across the country and here in Louisiana. We’ve passed important legislation in Louisiana over the last few years to protect the rights of gun owners, and I will continue that work in Congress to ensure our 2nd amendment rights are protected”.

  Runoff: 4/5; Special election: 5/3.

• NJ-Sen: Full results from a poll conducted by Joel Benenson for the DSCC (4/1-2, likely Democratic primary voters):
  

  Frank Lautenberg (D-inc): 52%
  
  Rob Andrews (D): 21%

  Juan Melli offers some more insights over at Blue Jersey.

• NY-26: Too much of a good thing?  Two wealthy candidates vying for the seat of retiring GOP Rep. Tom Reynolds are pledging to spend $1 million each on their campaigns.

Earlier in the cycle, Democrats had hoped to target three House Republican incumbents in New Jersey: NJ-07’s Mike Ferguson, NJ-03’s Jim Saxton, and NJ-02’s Frank LoBiondo.  With the retirements of Ferguson and Saxton, Democrats have a solid shot of picking up both seats with the candidacies of Linda Stender and John Adler.  For a while, it looked possible that state Senator Jeff Van Drew would round out the trio by challenging the entrenched LoBiondo in his D+4 district.  Alas, that wasn’t meant to be:

State Sen. Jeff Van Drew won’t challenge incumbent Frank LoBiondo for a congressional seat in November, Van Drew said this afternoon.

Van Drew was elected to the Senate in November after serving three terms in the state Assembly. […]

“We are approaching the most complex and challenging budget in the state’s history and for that reason, I’m going to stay where I am for now, although I will clearly say I look forward to the day when I will run for the United States Congress,” Van Drew said in a telephone interview this afternoon.

Van Drew said it’s possible he could challenge LoBiondo in 2010.

This is the safer move for Van Drew — fresh from beating an incumbent GOP state Senator last November, another bid against an incumbent so soon after his last race might have rubbed some voters the wrong way.  However, it does look promising that Van Drew will be willing to make a real race of this seat in 2010.  I look forward to his candidacy.

Meanwhile, the promising campaign of Rabbi Dennis Shulman against NJ-05’s ultra-conservative Scott Garrett leaves me hopeful that we could see three pick-up opportunities in the Garden State, after all.

National Democrats have exactly three targets in New Jersey that they would like to seriously contest: Mike Ferguson (7th District), Jim Saxton (3rd District), and Frank LoBiondo (2nd District).  In two of those three races, the DCCC has their preferred candidates: state Rep. Linda Stender is in for a rematch against Ferguson, and state Sen. Jim Adler is taking on Saxton.  If state Assemblyman Jeff Van Drew entered the race against Republican incumbent Frank LoBiondo, he would complete the trifecta.  The only problem?  Van Drew is currently locked in a tooth-and-nail campaign against Republican state Sen. Nicholas Asselta, and he has to win that race first before thinking of another promotion.

Van Drew didn’t do much to quiet the speculation today, as he played it coy on the question of a potential 2008 congressional campaign:

“What I’ve made clear is there’s only one thing on my mind now, and that is winning the State Senate seat in the first legislative district,” said Van Drew. “I have a lot of my plate and that’s all I’m thinking about. And that’s all I’m going to comment.”

That non-committal response is in stark contrast to his campaign’s official line last month:

“He’s not running for Congress. He’s got way too much on his plate right now,” said Allison Murphy, who is managing Van Drew’s campaign to oust Asselta. “I can safely say he’s not running next year, but maybe sometime soon.”

Unsurprisingly, Asselta is slamming Van Drew for the statement.

LoBiondo would be a tough foe to beat.  His campaign coffers are flush with over $1.5 million on hand and he has always dominated his district by wide margins.  Not in his favor, however, is the following fact about his district: its PVI is D+4.  While Kerry actually lost the district by one point in 2004, Gore carried it by a healthy 11 point margin in 2000.  Rather than changing demographics, we saw a 9/11 bounce for Bush that was pronounced throughout New Jersey.  And, if the Republican presidential nominee is anyone other than Rudy Giuliani, I expect those top-of-the-ticket numbers to return to their 2000 level.  If Democrats and progressives hope to expand their caucus, this is exactly the kind of seat they should be targeting.

We’ll just have to wait and see if Van Drew can win his state Senate race this fall before we know who LoBiondo will line up against.

Race Tracker: NJ-02