Tag: Mike Sodrel

Sorry about the title, I was going for something more creative and that is a bit blah. However the title does explain the overview of this diary. This election cycle was expected to be as boring as can be for Indiana yet a series of retirements and resignations changed it. Indiana contains many important elections and promises to be an entertaining year. I will try and provide an overview of all of our elections and even provide predictions. I hope you enjoy!

IN Senate

When Evan Bayh announced just days before the filing date that he would not seek re-election I was furious. However his timing was actually brilliant. It ensured that none of the big name Republicans who would love the job like Pence or Daniels got on the ballot. Instead the Republicans got stuck with washed up former Senator Dan Coats. Coats has been gaff-tastic and is a seriously flawed candidate. While he had a bloody fight to get his parties nomination over a bunch of nobodies we quietly nominated top tier candidate Congressman Brad Ellsworth. Ellsworth is the absolute best person to take on Coats. He is young, energetic and actually lives in Indiana. He is running as an outsider as well, instead of talking about his tenure in Congress he focuses on his time as Sherriff. Ellsworth is solidly against gun control whereas Coats seems to favor it. Ellsworth will likely get a solid number of Republicans who are dissatisfied with Coats. This race has yet to truly take off yet but when it does it will be close, very close. Please do not write Indiana off. Go ahead and give it a Republican lean for now if you want but understand a lot will change when the campaign begins. Please read Ellsworth’s campaign report that includes some encouraging poll results.

http://www.ellsworthforindiana…

Prediction

Ellsworth -50%

Coats-47%

Other-3%

IN-01

Pete Visclosky disgusts me. He is corrupt and genuinely slimy if you get my drift. I have been hoping for a primary challenge for years but to no prevail. It would be nice for him to just retire and take a cozy lobbying job yet he loves Washington too much. He is progressive enough (although the sleaze-ball voted against wall street regulation) however he is very corrupt. Trust me the day will come when his ways catches up to him and he is forced out in disgrace. He is pretty much guaranteed a 14th term to Congress though because the Republicans have yet again nominated a perennial candidate who has no chance of winning. He has ran in every race since 2002. So don’t expect a William Jefferson set of events to happen because trust me Mark Leyva is no Joseph Cao. I just hope next cycle he is booted out in the primary. This guy is an embarrassment and trust me a primary here would be the best thing possible for us.

Prediction

Visclosky-67%

Leyva-33%

(Not sure if there are any third parties running. If so give the Lib 2 and take one away from Visclosky and Leyva respectfully)

IN-02

Joe Donnelly is a nice enough guy. I have only met him once but he seemed friendly. Indiana’s second CD has a Republican tilt to it but I think Donnelly will win by a solid enough margin all the same. He actually beat a somewhat solid candidate in 08, garnering nearly 70% of the vote. Republicans are smart! They nominated a woman who actually goes by Wacky Jackie (although we just nominated Alvin freaking Greene so we probably shouldn’t talk). Jackie is a state representative and former reporter. Do to the nature of the district it is not impossible for Jackie to pull an upset but I highly doubt it. I would put it at lean D.

Prediction

Donnelly-55%

Wolarski-45%

IN-03

I have never been fond of Mark Souder. He has always came off as an ass to me. During his time in Washington he always fought for family values, about as social of conservative as they come. Yeah Mark Souder resigned a bit ago after admitting to having an affair with a staffer, who ironically made a tape with him about abstinence only sex ed. You are supposed to expect anything in Congress but I did not expect that. None the less I was glad he resigned because I was plain and simply glad to see him away from Washington. He had a somewhat close primary to a rich teabagging car dealer owner. However right after all of the affair shit broke and he resigned. So the Republicans chose a nominee at a convention of delegates. Not surprisingly they chose state senator Marlin Stutzman who just ran a very impressive campaign against former Senator and lobbyist Dan Coats. Personally I think Stutzman would have been stronger than Coats but all the same this is a nice parting gift for Stutzman who defeated a hullabaloo of candidates at the convention. I have nothing against Stutzman, while I disagree with him ideology he seems like a nice guy and will be much better than Souder at any rate. We have a great candidate in the district and don’t let anyone tell you otherwise. Former city councilman Tom Hayhurst is running. Hayhurst was the nominee in 2006 and ran a great campaign. He is known for his fundraising ability. If this was 2006 or 2008 I would put this at lean D but Stutzman is too popular and the district too conservative. I know some say that the supporters of his convention opponents won’t show up but I don’t buy that argument, I just don’t. The one positive is that Stutzman primary supporters will probably show up greater in November and may still be mad enough their guy lost to Coats that they may vote Ellsworth.  

Prediction

Stutzman-56%

Hayhurst-44%

IN-04

Steve Buyer does not actually have a squeaky clean reputation but I have never particularly disliked him all the same. He is not seeking re-election this year and do to his wife’s illness. I believe his involvement in the frontier education foundation probably contributed but I want to believe he is retiring solely to spend more time with his wife who is not in good condition health wise. Term limited Indiana SoS Todd Rokita jump at the chance of an upgrade. He also considered a potential Senate run but passed. Rokita is not that bad, while he will be a mostly conservative vote he really does seem reasonable like Dick Lugar, who is also conservative but still has an independent streak. We have no chance here come November. Some dude David Sanders is our nominee.

Prediction

Rokita-66%

Sanders-34%

IN-05

Republicans are so freaking stupid. I am not talking ideology here but pure horse race politics. Dan Burton is the most corrupt politician in the state. He is a royal douche who, I feel, is way out of touch with his district and reality. He is an avid golfer who has actually missed votes to golf with lobbyists and goes on expensive golfing trips. He was also avid on spreading the Vincent Foster conspiracy during Clinton’s days. He has been in Washington too long and everyone hates him and knows he is an ineffective legislature. He was a prime target to be primaried but no, the Republicans fucked it up. About a gizillion people jumped at the chance to knock him out. Had the number of challengers been knocked to single digits he would have lost. But no, name recognition got him a pathetic 30 percent of the vote, barely enough to squeak by former Republican Party chair Luke Messer. 70% of Republicans voted against this sleaze bag but no he still gets a 15th term. Republicans/Teabaggers get your shit together next time! We nominated a real life teabagger Democrat. Yes a teabagging Democrat. I know a lot of people have wondered if the baggers and everyone will unite behind the Democrat, well it ain’t going to happen. Crawford is not a politician and has no skill and while I would rather have a teabagging Democrat than Burton it is not going to happen. Maybe next year they will do it right or maybe Burton will even retire. This is one of those rare moments when teabaggers and Democrats share a same goal.  

Prediction

Burton-67%

Crawford-33%

IN-06

Mike Pence is a savvy politician who has a real future in politics. I wish he was a Democrat because believe me he has skill. I am willing to bet that his next term in Congress will be his last, especially if we retain Congress. He will either run for Governor, Senate or President. The only thing that could get him to stay would be the possibility of being speaker someday but I highly doubt it happens. We have put up, once again, minister Barry Welsh. Barry is a good guy but does not have what it takes to make this race competitive.

Prediction

Pence- 72%

Welsh- 28%

IN-07

Andre Carson is the most progressive elected politician in Indiana. He is only the second Muslim currently in Congress. I really like him and I think he has a real future in the house. Perhaps he will even reach leadership someday. Carson won a special election back in 2008 when his grandmother, a really decent person and effective Congresswoman, passed away. He was elected to a full term by a large margin and will face perennial candidate Marvin Scott in November. Scott was the 2004 nominee for Senate against Evan Bayh, receiving 37% of the vote. He has ran for this seat several times, actually coming close in 1994. Carson has his job in Congress until he does not want it anymore. Scott will be crushed.

Prediction

Carson-65%

Scott-35%

IN-08

Brad Ellsworth is universally known and loved in Indiana’s eight congressional district, however he will not be running for Congress this year but will instead be running for US Senate. We got one of the best possible candidates we could have gotten in state representative Trent Van Haaften. Van Haaften is very popular. People seem to forget that when rating this district. Larry Buchson is the essence of generic R in my view. He offers nothing. He won a very unimpressive primary win, much less than I had predicted. The Tea Party does not like him and I am sure some of them will refuse to vote for him. Van Haaften has even reached out to some of the upset Tea Party members. I could see him getting a lot of Republican votes. No matter how you think the Senate race will turn out it is obvious that Ellsworth will clean up in his own district and that will likely provide coattails for Van Haaften. Fellow Indiana SSP user notanothersonofabush made a good point the other day about The GOP having other priorities and it is very true, the Republicans have there eyes set on the Senate seat and possibly knocking out Hill and this is not at the top of their to do list.  

Prediction

Van Haaften-53%

Buchson-47%

IN-09

Baron Hill is my Congressman and I have the utmost respect for him. He has represented the district well and I have always been fond of him. His only “easy” election was last year when the Republicans nominated retread Mike Sodrel again. Sodrel originally ran in 2002 and was defeated yet he successfully ran in 2004 but was defeated again by Hill in 2006 and very soundly again in 2008. You would think he got the message but no, he once again ran this year and he came in third place in the Republican primary. The Republicans nominated Bloomington attorney Todd Young. Young is nothing special but is a step above lunatic Travis Hankins and Sodrel. I mean at least Young has a higher education than a high school diploma for one. Young is not free of controversy though, he received money from Massey energy, a mining company which is now under scrutiny for unsafe conditions it puts it’s workers through. Hill did one thing uber stupid though. During a town hall one of these Republican activist with a video camera bated the Congressman and got what she wanted with him telling her that it is his town hall and he makes the rules. He is referring to his ban of video camera’s but it did not look good. It makes an excellent attack add. Like I said Hill has never really been given a free pass and this is shaping up to be a much more conservative year than he has faced in the past and the Republicans nominated someone much better than Sodrel. So it will certainly be no cake walk but Hill is used to tough elections and he knows how to handle himself. A lot of people say his vote on health care reform hurt him but I actually think he would be worse off had he voted against the legislation. He needs high turnout in Bloomington and he needs to keep progressives happy there. Also please do not take the poll taken by fire dog lake seriously. They were against the health care reform bill and I believe it was there tactic to poll tough districts to scare members of Congress out of voting for the legislation. The poll in question was highly questionable as it contained many gottcha questions and such. Mike Sodrel even released an internal poll showing him leading by one so it is pretty obvious that poll was highly inaccurate when a Republicans internal shows better news for Hill. Tough but Hill has it in him.

Prediction

Hill-50%

Young-46%

Others-4%

IN SoS

Incumbent Secretary of State Todd Rokita is term limited. The Democrats will nominate Vop Osili  or Tom McKenna for the job and the Republicans nominated Charlie White. I do not know the dynamics of the race, although I consistently receive emails from Vop and he sounds like a serious candidate. I do not know this race enough to make a prediction though, maybe my fellow Indiana SSP users could make the call.

Auditor and Treasurer

Berry and Mourdock are safe. I do not know a lot about the races but they are scandal free so they will probably be fine.

IN State House

We were supposed to lose the state house last year but we managed to cling onto it. I do not think we will be as lucky this year. We have many competitive elections and not a lot in our favor. I am predicting we lose but narrowly. I am going to predict that the Republicans get 52 seats and we get 48. I hope I am wrong.

State Senate

The Republicans will have no problems retaining the state senate.

Please let me know what you think. I welcome all feedback, positive or not. I would especially like to hear from my fellow Indiana SSP users. Thanks!!!!

Yesterday’s primary elections in Indiana, North Carolina, and Ohio showed two things: one, despite all the huffing and puffing about it being an anti-incumbent year and there being a massive wave of teabaggers ready to take the system down, establishment candidates still won pretty much everything. And two, the enthusiasm gap between the parties that we’ve been warned about is definitely out there, and numbers from last night back that up.

Indiana: Indiana was the case study for what went wrong with the anti-establishment candidates — there were just too many of them. In Republican race after race, the anti-establishment votes were split between too many candidates, letting the incumbents or the anointed challengers slip through; had the teabaggers had the presence of mind to unite behind one person, they could have done some actual damage. In the Senate primary, 90s-leftover Dan Coats won with a tepid 39%, beating state Sen. Marlin Stutzman (standard-bearer of the DeMint wing of the teabaggers) at 29 and ex-Rep. John Hostettler (representing the Paulist wing) at 23. As we’ve wondered openly before at SSP, I have no idea whether that’s better or worse for Democrats, seeing as how Coats has access to actual money but also a dump-truck full of vulnerabilities (starting off with the possibility that the NRA might actually support Brad Ellsworth over the Brady Bill-supporting Coats).

The same dynamic played out in a slew of House races. In IN-03, somnambulistic Rep. Mark Souder won with 48% over two opponents, Bob Thomas at 34% and Phil Troyer at 16%. In the open seat race in IN-04, SoS Todd Rokita only cleared 42%, although there were 13 contestants in the race and his nearest rival, Brandt Hershman, only reached 17%. In IN-05, widely disliked Rep. Dan Burton managed to way underperform his 52% from his last primary: he only got to 30%; luckily for him, his opposition was so chopped up that he still survived, with former state GOP chair Luke Messer coming closest at 28%. In IN-08, the NRCC’s pick, surgeon Larry Bucshon, barely survived a horde of teabaggers, most of whom coalesced behind Kristi Risk, whom he beat 33-29. And in IN-09, a three-way duel between ex-Rep. Mike Sodrel, establishment pick attorney Todd Young, and teabagger fave Travis Hankins wound up with Young winning with 34%, with Hankins at 32% and Sodrel at 30% (sparing us Baron Hill vs. Sodrel Round Five). The only dominant performance was Jackie Wolarski in IN-02, who picked up 61% of the vote to Jack Jordan’s 28%.

As with Coats, it’s unclear to me who we’d rather have faced in those races. In each case, it was a choice between an establishment guy with money but who isn’t going to excite the GOP base, vs. an outsider without the connections or, possibly, the campaign chops. Maybe Risk’s loss will help with Democrat Trent Van Haaften’s outreach to the local teabaggery, and in the 9th, while it’s sad Baron Hill won’t get to face off against the increasingly laughable Sodrel, Young seems to come with his own set of problems (first and foremost, a big recent donation from Don Blankenship, controversial CEO of coal mining company Massey Energy).

North Carolina: The big story in North Carolina was the Democratic primary in the Senate race. Thanks to a fairly strong performance from third-place finisher Kenneth Lewis, nobody cleared the 40% mark, and we’re headed to a June 22 runoff between SoS Elaine Marshall and ex-state Sen. Cal Cunningham, which’ll be a duel between name rec (Marshall) and money (Cunningham). Marshall finished at 36%, Cunningham at 27%, and Lewis at 17%.

At the House level, in the main race where the GOP is playing offense, the primary is also headed to a runoff. In NC-08, unhinged rich guy Tim D’Annunzio got 37% and ex-sportscaster Harold Johnson got 33%. NC-11 had looked like it was also headed to a runoff, but by night’s end businessman Jeff Miller barely cleared the hurdle, with 40.2%. In both those races, the Dem incumbents got mild rebukes from their bases (presumably over their anti-HCR votes), with Larry Kissell getting only 63% and Heath Shuler getting 62%. In NC-06 and NC-10, geriatric Howard Coble (64%) and bombastic Patrick McHenry (63%) also underperformed against fractured opposition. You have to look further downballot to see any bodies falling: five incumbent state legislators lost their primaries (four of them Dems, although some of these look like safe seats).

Ohio: The main event in Ohio was the Senate primary for Democrats, where Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher, as expected beat SoS Jennifer Brunner 55-45. Considering how vastly Brunner was outspent, and the trajectory of the last week’s polls, it’s actually surprising it was that close. Apparently Brunner’s hard work on the ground in some of Ohio’s reddish areas in the last weeks of the campaign paid off some dividends, as she put up big leads in the Cincinnati area (Hamilton and Clermont Counties). Naturally, it leaves you to wonder what she could have done if she’d had some actual money.

In the House, OH-02 was the scene of two contested primaries. Rep. Jean Schmidt survived her primary challenge with little trouble, beating Warren Co. Commissioner Mike Kilburn 62-22. On the Dem side, Surya Yalamanchili squeaked out a 41-38 win over David Krikorian, with apparently enough people repulsed by both to give 22% to Some Dude J. Parker. Krikorian continued to be a douchebag even in defeat, accusing Yalamanchili of having played “the race card.” The establishment candidates in the two other big GOP primaries both prevailed: in OH-16, Jim Renacci got 49% to 40% for Matt Miller (his third straight time breaking 40% but losing the GOP primary here). And state Sen. Bob Gibbs, the NRCC’s recruit in OH-18, seems to have beaten Fred Dailey by about 200 votes (at 21% each), although this race appears headed to a recount. (One would be hard-pressed to call Dailey, the 2008 nominee and former state Agriculture Director, an outsider candidate, although at least he was certainly angry this time around.)

In Ohio, there were also some allegedly hot primaries for the GOP in statewide races, where teabagger favorites were taking on establishment picks, that also turned out to be a big bucket of nothing. In the SoS primary, state Sen. Jon Husted beat Sandra O’Brien 67-33, while in the Auditor race, Delaware Co. Prosecutor Dave Yost (who was the teabagger fave when he was in the AG race running against the guy they really hate, Mike DeWine, but became their enemy when he switched over to the Auditor’s race against the guy they liked) beat state Rep. Seth Morgan 65-35.

Finally, as I said at the start, there’s the matter of turnout disparities. Reid Wilson points to how only 662K voters voted in the OH-Sen Democratic primary, which was lower than the number of Democratic voters (872K) in the Democratic primary in 2006 (where there was no contested D primary in either the Governor or Senate races). That jibes with the broader numbers we’ve been seeing about enthusiasm gaps (as with Gallup‘s recent poll showing 43% of Republicans are “very enthused” about voting, while 33% of Democrats are). The falloff was similar in Indiana, where only 204K Dems participated as opposed to 304K in 2006, although it’s worth noting that the Dems were playing offense in 2006 and had contested House primaries, while this year there was really bupkus to get Dems to the polls in Indiana. In North Carolina, 425K voted in the Dem primary. Reid compares this to 2004, where more Dems showed up in the primary, but that may not be an apt comparison as that’s a presidential year — regardless, that too may be an ominous number in the context of the Republican Senate primary, where almost as many, 374K, voted to help Richard Burr dispatch no-name opposition.

KY-Sen: Obnoxious theocrat James Dobson is endorsing establishment dude Trey Grayson over weirdo Rand Paul. It feels like it’s gotten late early around here, with Grayson badly trailing in the last few polls, so you gotta wonder whether this or anything else can make much of a difference.

NV-Sen: According to Reid Wilson, the Tea Party Express (the political action wing, such as it is, of the teabaggers) says they’ll spend $100 to $150K on behalf of wingnut favorite Sharron Angle. Angle’s trailed pretty badly in most polling, though.

OH-Sen: With Ohio’s primary around the corner, the Hotline is reporting that the DSCC will apparently step into the race on Lee Fisher’s behalf. The not-terribly-well-funded Fisher is facing off against the almost-penniless Jennifer Brunner, but apparently Bob Menendez doesn’t want to take any chances.

WI-Sen: One-time beer baron Dick Leinenkugel officially decided to join the now-crowded GOP field hoping to take on Sen. Russ Feingold. Leinenkugel’s chief problem appears to be the fact that he just resigned as the governor’s Commerce Secretary… and the governor of Wisconsin is Jim Doyle, a Democrat. The Kugel’s new opponents were, needless to say, quick to point this out.

AZ-Gov: A couple of tidbits from a PPP poll that is slated to be released later today:

• Brewer has seen a significant improvement in her job approval numbers with Republicans. When we looked at the state in September she was under water even with voters of her own party, as 37% of them expressed disapproval of her job performance while only 28% felt she was doing a good job. Now 54% of Republicans approve of her and only 27% disapprove, so she’s seen a good deal of improvement on that front, which should be particularly helpful for her prospects of winning nomination for a full term against a crowded field of primary opponents.

• At the same time Democratic candidate Terry Goddard leads Brewer 71-25 with Hispanics. That may seem ho hum, but consider this: Barack Obama only won Hispanic voters in the state by a 56-41 margin. So Goddard’s outperforming him by more than 30 points there. And on our September poll Goddard was up just 53-33 with Hispanics so it’s a 26 point improvement on the margin even relative to that.

FL-22: Combustible Republican Allen West is flashing an internal poll (from Wilson Research Strategies) which allegedly has him up 44-42 over incumbent Dem Ron Klein.

IN-09: Todd Young, seeking the GOP nod against ultra-retread Mike Sodrel, has a new ad up on TV, trying to paint himself as the “true conservative” choice. To CQ’s credit, they asked how much is being spent on the ad. To the Young campaign’s discredit, they declined to say.

MI-01: The Republican field in this race is getting’ mighty crowded here, too. GOP state Sen. Jason Allen, who is term-limited, is the latest to seek the Republican nod to replace Bart Stupak.

Fundraising: CQ has a handy chart of pre-primary fundraising filings in the three states which have primaries next week: Indiana, North Carolina, and Ohio.

Immigration: The Hill surveys the races out West where Arizona’s new immigration law may bolster Latino turnout – and help Dems. Jon Ralston notes that Brian Sandoval, the GOP’s would-be savior in the NV-Gov race, has come out in favor of the law. This could all get very ugly – well, even uglier than it already is.

FL-Sen: Charlie Crist has launched his first TV ad of the campaign, hitting Marco Rubio for being a lobbyist. Dunno that Crist has the cred to make these attacks stick. Rubio’s firing back with an ad that ties Crist to Obama (something that’s more easily done).

LA-Sen: Hah! Awesome! GOP Sen. Tom Coburn, hoping to force Dems into an uncomfortable vote, wants to offer an amendment to the healthcare reconciliation bill that would prohibit insurance coverage of Viagra for convicted sex offenders. The Louisiana Democratic Party put out a press release saying that surely Coburn “would agree that anyone who has admitted or been found guilty of involvement with prostitution should not be covered either.” Zing! Meanwhile, in an act of extreme bravery, Rep. Charlie Melancon says he doesn’t support repealing healthcare reform.

NV-Sen: As Las Vegas Now puts: “It has not been a pleasant two weeks for United State Senate hopeful Jon Scott Ashjian. Three of his personal properties have been served with default notices, his Nevada Tea Party supporters will not come to his aid and national party leaders have denounced him as a fraud.” Click the link for all the details.

WA-Sen: Yesterday we learned that Dino Rossi got jiggy with Michael Steele. Now it turns out that he also paid a visit to NRSC HQ. Wonder if he’ll bite.

AL-Gov: As in Georgia (see GA-12 item below), several leaders of the Alabama African American community are unhappy with Artur Davis’s vote against healthcare reform. State Sen. Hank Sanders of Selma sent an open letter to Artur Davis, criticizing his decision, and TV host Roland Martin also expressed displeasure, saying that Davis “was elected to represent the people in his district in Congress, not a future position that he may or may not get.”

NY-Gov: Newly-minted Republican Parker Griffith may have supported Howard Dean, but even more newly-minted Republican Steve Levy supports… single-payer healthcare insurance? Oh yes, according to a Working Families Party survey he filled out in 2007. Michael Long will be sooo pleased. (H/t Darth Jeff)

PA-Gov: Philly Mayor Michael Nutter will endorse state Sen. Anthony Williams in the Democratic gubernatorial primary. This gives Williams, who just joined the race and trails in the polls, a big shot in the arm, especially if Nutter puts his full machine behind him. (Williams has done quite well in the money race, though, outraising some of his better-known competitors.)

AR-03: A Republican candidate with the perversely appropriate name of Gunner DeLay is calling for “civil disobedience” against healthcare reform. Just what we needed – more incitement, from a former prosecutor, no less. I guess DeLay is trying to make amends for his pro-union past as a state senator.

GA-07: Another Republican is jumping into the field to succeed GOP Rep. John Linder: his former chief of staff, Rob Woodall. He joins state Rep. Clay Cox and Walton County businessman Tom Kirby.

GA-09: The special election date to fill Nathan Deal’s seat has been moved from April 27th to May 11th (run-off: June 8th), in order to give military and overseas voters enough time to submit their ballots.

GA-12: Dem Rep. John Barrow is definitely feeling some heat over his “no” vote on healthcare. Black political leaders, who had generally supported Barrow over the years, are very unhappy with him and are either pulling their endorsements or switching over to his primary opponent, Regina Thomas. African Americans make up a third of the district’s population and approximately 60% of Dem primary voters. Thomas, though, got pasted in a 2008 effort to defeat Barrow and has chump change in her campaign account.

IL-11: GOPer Adam Kinzinger hasn’t gotten the memo, apparently, because he’s going full steam ahead on repealing healthcare reform. The responses to this are so easy it’s ridiculous – which is why Rep. Debbie Halvorson in turn accused Kinzinger of wanting to repeal protections against pre-existing conditions. We could do this all day.

IN-09: A Wilson Research Strategies poll for Republican Mike Sodrel shows him very competitive with Rep. Baron Hill, trailing by just a 43-42 margin. Sodrel also tested the GOP primary, where he looks very strong. He has 46%, compared to 19 for activist Travis Hankins and 13 for attorney Todd Young. (Young is on the NRCC’s Young Guns list.) The poll was conducted a few weeks ago, before the healthcare reform vote.

MD-01: How much does a vote against healthcare reform get you? Dem Rep. Frank Kratovil is going to find out. Despite Kratovil’s two “no” votes, his opponent Andy Harris is charging: “This is Nancy Pelosi’s bill. Her fingerprints are all over it, and Frank Kratovil enabled Nancy Pelosi to be in the position where she is now.” If this line of attack sticks, it’ll show that cringe politics rarely works.

PA-03: Dem Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper’s Some Dude primary opponent, Mel Marin, filed a challenge to keep Dahlkemper off the ballot – and just got his challenge rejected. Supposedly he’ll appeal.

PA-07: The SEIU has backed Dem Bryan Lentz in his bid to win the open 7th CD against GOPer Pat Meehan.

SD-AL: Even though he declined to challenge Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin himself, Steve Hildebrand is trying to help Dr. Kevin Weiland qualify for the Democratic primary. Weiland has to submit 1,250 signatures in just one week’s time, though.

DNC: The DNC is trying out a new message, airing radio ads which ask voters to tell their Republican congressmen: “Hands off our healthcare!” Be very curious to see if these draw any blood – or if this message continues to see use.

Healthcare: SEIU is spending $700K on ads thanking Dems in tough districts for their “yes” votes on healthcare: Tom Periello (VA-05), Dina Titus (NV-03), Betsy Markey (CO-04), John Boccieri (OH-16), Kathy Dahlkemper (PA-03) and Earl Pomeroy (ND-AL). The local New York chapter will also air ads thanking Scott Murphy (NY-20), Bill Owens (NY-23), Dan Maffei (NY-25), Tim Bishop (NY-01) and Steve Israel (NY-02).

Before anything else, the poll.

SurveyUSA for Firedoglake (1/17-19, likely voters):

Baron Hill (D): 41

Mike Sodrel (R): 49

Undecided: 10

(MoE: ±4.1%)

I’m not so sure if FDL made the right choice here. Sodrel is not the only option in the Republican primary — attorney Todd Young has banked quite a bit money for the primary already, and teabaggers’ choice Travis Hankins is also staking out a position as a real wingnut’s wingnut. Sodrel has a lot of name recognition, sure, but you have to wonder if 9th CD Republicans are eyeing their options.

And now, for the other stuff: If you’ve been following SSP this week, you probably saw that we raised some questions about SurveyUSA’s latest round of House race polls that they’ve conducted for Firedoglake. We were particularly concerned with SurveyUSA’s sample composition in its poll of New York’s 1st Congressional District. More to the point, we had problems with a poll that pegged the share of 18-34 year-olds among likely voters at just one percent of the electorate. SUSA founder Jay Leve has responded:

The sample is not “pretty weird.” It is a sample of likely mid-term voters. There is no one “right” way to draw a sample in a congressional district 10 months from a midterm election, but this sample was drawn carefully and defensibly. To be included in the sample (SurveyUSA’s criteria, not the client’s):  the voter had to be registered with the secretary of state; had to have a telephone; had to have voted in 2008 and had to have voted in either [2006 or 2002], and had to confirm that he/she resided in the district being surveyed.  By design, this was not a survey of registered voters (which would have resulted in a younger sample).

Reasonable people can disagree about exactly what percentage of the electorate in 2010 will be age 18 to 34 , and I am not defending any specific turnout target. But most would agree that midterm voters are older.  That’s what these results show.  When SurveyUSA re-weights the respondents in NY-01 to be younger, the survey results do not meaningfully change. This may seem to some counter-intuitive; it is not.

When, for internal analysis, SurveyUSA re-weights the respondents to be younger in AR-02, OH-01, and IN-09, the survey results do not change.

To respond to Leve’s reply, I would first of all, with all due respect, point out that merely saying that a sample is “not pretty weird” does not actually make it so.

It is true that midterm voters are older. National exit polling for the last two presidential elections showed that voters between the ages of 18 and 29 made up 18% of the electorate in 2008 and 17% in 2004, but only made up 12% in 2006. Please note that these numbers are of 18 to 29 year-olds, and not the 18-to-34 bracket that SUSA uses in its demographic breakdowns, so the comparison is numerically kind here.

Next, SUSA attempts to address the concern by “re-weighting” their sample for the NY-01 poll, to bring up the 18-to-34 demographic from 1% to 3% of the electorate. The result actually benefits Republican Randy Altschuler, tightening his race against Democrat Tim Bishop to 47-46 from 47-45 in the original sample. While I question whether or not adjusting the sub-sample from 1% to 3% is a meaningful or satisfactory correction, this raises another issue: Just how exactly do you re-weight from a 1% sample? With such a small pool of sampled 18-to-34 year-old voters, aren’t we dealing with an astronomical margin of error here?

People who read SSP with any degree of regularity know that we like and respect SurveyUSA, and we’re not trying to suggest that anything untoward happened when these polls were drawn up. Leve seems to be confusing “drawing a sample” with “the sample you end up with.” It’s entirely possible to have a sound methodology that, for whatever reason, winds up with a sample that’s not quite right. And that’s all we’re suggesting here. (Though I would also point out that SUSA’s criteria that one has to have voted in 2006 means that there was no one younger than 21 or 22 captured in their polling.)

RaceTracker Wiki: IN-09

• Redistricting contest: Attention all redistricting nerds! Our New York redistricting contest deadline is Sunday, midnight Eastern time, so get your maps done. Don’t forget that people need to email their .DRF.XML files to jeffmd at swingstateproject dot com.

• AR-Sen, MO-Sen: Here’s an interesting alliance between two prominent female Senate candidates, one perhaps our most vulnerable incumbent and the other our likeliest pickup. Blanche Lincoln and Robin Carnahan have formed a joint fundraising committee, the Missouri Arkansas Victory Fund.

• CT-Sen: I had almost forgotten about Merrick Alpert, a young entrepreneur who’d been trying to carve out some space for himself in the Democratic primary against Chris Dodd as the “clean” outsider (and had been polling in the low double digits in primary polls, by virtue of his non-Dodd-ness). With the departure of Dodd and his replacement with the squeaky-clean Richard Blumenthal, it looks like Alpert’s going to need to do some message retooling. At any rate, Alpert says he’s sticking around in the race no matter what.

• DE-Sen: A politician voting against something, and then take credit for its benefits after it passes anyway? Why, I’m sure that’s never happened before. Still, it’s not the kind of thing you might expect Rep. Mike Castle to do… but he’s doing it anyway, touting $5 million in aid to the Delaware state government that came from the stimulus package he voted against.

• FL-Sen: I’m not sure if Charlie Crist actually thinks this’ll work; it seems like a transparent-enough ploy that the teabaggers will see through it like Grandma’s underpants. At any rate, he’s spinning to the paranoid right as quickly as the newly-rabid John McCain, decrying “Obamacare secrecy” in HCR negotiations, and also engaging in a little revisionist history about his stance on abortion.

• MA-Sen: Everyone’s getting Twitter-pated about PPP’s early teasings of its poll of this race, which they say is “loseable” for the Democrats; the actual numbers should be out this weekend. Still, you’d think that if there were an actual fire going on here, you’d see the national committees getting involved, and they aren’t (yet)… although the RNC has been sending around an e-mail asking for money on state Sen. Scott Brown’s behalf. Meanwhile, Martha Coakley has a big fundraiser scheduled for next Tuesday in DC (with all the state’s Congressional delegation and other moneybags luminaries like the Podestas) — although, given how gigantic a cash advantage she already has for blanketing the airwaves, it seems like that day might be better spent actually working on the ground than heading to Washington.

• ND-Sen: It turns out R2K had a perfectly good poll of North Dakota in the field on Tuesday, which got spoiled when Byron Dorgan suddenly retired. Still, it sheds some light on Dorgan’s retirement decision, as the final result is Hoeven 54, Dorgan 37 (which may be skewed toward Hoeven because they kept asking polling after Dorgan’s announcement, but Dorgan was still losing before the announcement too). That’s despite Dorgan’s sky-high approvals of 63%… just what happens when the state’s natural lean is against you, and someone even more popular than you comes along (just ask Lincoln Chafee). Remember that R2K found a 57-35 lead for Dorgan back in February over Hoeven; the flip was driven in large part by independents, who moved decisively from Dorgan to Hoeven over the year. One other Democratic name is getting floated as a potential Dorgan successor: former Dorgan aide and former state Senator Kristin Hedger.

• NY-Sen-B: Lots of New York’s power players are trying to talk Harold Ford Jr. down from the ledge regarding his potential primary challenge to Kirsten Gillibrand, starting with Gillibrand’s mentor Charles Schumer. Rep. Jerry Nadler, who came around late to supporting Gillibrand but is firmly in her column now, also joined in the chorus telling Ford (who’s been huddling with advisors from Michael Bloomberg’s coterie) to back off. The campaign against Ford almost seems to write itself, starting with his pro-life proclamations and the fact that he’s been registered to vote in New York for only six weeks. That’s only the tip of the iceberg, though; Campaign Diaries has the definitive takedown of his record.

• NV-Sen: Some more intraparty sniping in Nevada, where Rep. Dean Heller is still complaining that John Ensign continues to tarnish the GOP’s brand in the state, which could hurt its chances in the Senate and Governor’s races in 2010. Heller said he wouldn’t call for Ensign to resign, “at least not on this show.”

• PA-Sen: Former Commonwealth Court judge Doris Smith-Ribner ended her longshot bid in the Democratic primary in the Senate race, having made no fundraising progress. She made so little impact I don’t see this changing much of anything, although maybe it helps Rep. Joe Sestak a bit via less splitting of the anti-Arlen Specter vote. She’s switching over to the Lt. Governor’s race, although she faces a longshot bid there too for the Dem nod against former Philadelphia controller Jonathan Saidel.

• UT-Sen: Maybe yesterday’s news that Jason Chaffetz wouldn’t challenge him was good news for Bob Bennett, but things aren’t getting any better for Team Bob. He’s now officially a target of the Club for Growth, unhappy with his occasionally moments of across-the-aisle comity. The CfG doesn’t have a preferred horse in the race, yet, as they seem torn between Mike Lee, Tim Bridgewater, and Cherilyn Eagar; for now, they’re calling all three of them “superior” to Bennett.

• NM-Gov: The New Mexico GOP has only a number of second-stringers running for Governor (with Dona Ana County DA Susana Martinez maybe the most interesting), so they still seem to be casting about. They’ve gotten a nibble from a local attorney with no electoral experience but a prominent family name: Pete Domenici Jr.

• SD-Gov: One more Republican got into the field in the South Dakota gubernatorial race, bringing the total to five. State Sen. Gordon Howie seems to be laying claim to the teabaggers’ mantle in the race, via his presidency of the Tea Party-linked Citizens for Liberty. (I’d rather see him run for the House, where he could someday form the Guys Whose Names Seem To Be Out Of Order Caucus, along with Rodney Tom and Nickie Monica.)

• TX-Gov, TX-Sen: Kay Bailey Hutchison’s gubernatorial run has been giving John Cornyn nonstop heartburn since he took over the NRSC, and now he seems to be strategically leaking that he’d prefer that she drop her gubernatorial bid altogether (despite the primary being only two months away) to avoid the prospect of an expensive special election. Note to Cornyn: she’ll lose the gubernatorial primary anyway, and you’ll have her back shortly. While smart Texans (see White, Bill) seem to be backing away from the Senate-Race-that-probably-won’t-exist, one more Republican is floating his name for the hypothetical race. And it’s a guy I didn’t know even had any political inclinations: ESPN talking head Craig James.

• UT-Gov: Democrats got a good candidate to run in the 2010 gubernatorial special election: Salt Lake County mayor Peter Corroon confirmed that he’ll run. Corroon still faces a steep uphill fight, given the state’s crimson hue, but Dems have a better opening than usual, given the muddled Republican field in view of possible convention and/or primary challenges to appointed Gov. Gary Herbert.

• CA-19: Neighboring Representatives are taking sides in the Republican primary in the open seat race in the 19th. Kevin McCarthy, who leads NRCC recruitment efforts, is sticking with his initial endorsement of state Sen. Jeff Denham despite ex-Rep. Richard Pombo’s entry to the race (although he confesses that he “likes” Pombo too), while Devin Nunes has endorsed his ex-colleague Pombo. Denham also benefits from endorsements from many of the other state GOP House members (Dreier, Royce, Campbell, Issa, and Herger), although Duncan Hunter Jr. switched to “neutral” from Denham after Pombo’s entry.

• IN-09: It’s on… for the fifth freakin’ time. Ex-Rep. Mike Sodrel is launching another run against Democratic Rep. Baron Hill. (Hill has a 3-1 win record in their meetings so far.) The trouble is, unlike previous tries, Sodrel will have to get through a primary this time; attorney Todd Young has already raised substantial money and has many establishment endorsements (including some statewide officials). With Sodrel increasingly buddying up to the teabaggers, this looks like it has the potential to turn into one more skirmish in the establishment/movement battle.

• ND-AL: Republicans suddenly seem more interested in taking on the usually untouchable Democratic Rep. Earl Pomeroy, no doubt heartened by the knowledge that they’d be running downticket from John Hoeven in the Senate race and might benefit from coattails. State Rep. Rick Berg is sounding the loudest, although former Insurance Comm. Jim Poolman also is expressing interest. Public Service Commission member Kevin Cramer (who’s lost twice to Pomeroy before) was scoping out a run even before Byron Dorgan’s retirement.

• NH-02: With a crowd already formed in the NH-02 Democratic primary, Executive Councilor Debora Pignatelli declined to run. She didn’t endorse attorney Ann McLane Kuster, state Rep. John DeJoie, or Katrina Swett (who hasn’t formally declared yet), though.

• PA-04: There are rumors of a potential primary challenge from the left to Rep. Jason Altmire (despite the R+6 character of his suburban Pittsburgh district). Businesswoman Georgia Berner — who lost the 2006 primary to Altmire, who went on to defeat GOP Rep. Melissa Hart in the general — is dissatisfied with Altmire’s Blue Doggish record and is considering a rematch.

• VA-05: Some more delicious cat fud in the 5th, where state Sen. Robert Hurt, the Republican establishment’s pick in the race, has told the teabaggers to get bent. He’ll be skipping two debates sponsored by Tea Party organizations (although he cites the legislative calendar as the reasons for not showing up).

• Polltopia: Nate Silver has a very interesting deconstruction of Rasmussen, one of the best things I’ve seen written about them yet. He looks at why they keep finding right-wing insurgent candidates (Marco Rubio, Rand Paul) overperforming against Democratic candidates compared to Republican establishment rivals, contrary to other pollsters. What he sees is that between their exclusionary likely voter screen and their one-day polling periods (with no callbacks), they’re disproportionately reaching the most informed, motivated, and ideologically-driven voters.

• AR-Sen: Blanche Lincoln is getting yet another challenger, except this time it’s a Democrat: Bob Johnson (no, not that Bob Johnson… he’s the Arkansas Senate President, and former Arkansas House Speaker). Surely the netroots will rejoice that conservadem Lincoln, known for her foot-dragging on EFCA, is getting a primary challenge. Um, except there’s the small fact that Johnson would be running against Lincoln from the right. (Johnson held a fundraiser for Republican state Senator Gilbert Baker last fall, who may well be the Republican Senate nominee.)

• FL-Sen: One more fossil got unearthed by Charlie Crist as he seeks applications for potential Senate replacements for Mel Martinez: former Representative Lou Frey, a 75-year-old who served in the House from the Orlando area from 1968 to 1978. Crist is still planning to interview current Rep. Bill Young, as well as former Reps. Clay Shaw and Mike Bilirakis. Follow the link to see all 10 current possible replacements.

• IL-Sen: With the Democratic Senate field suddenly down to two candidates, Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias and local Urban League president Cheryle Jackson, there’s still some of the inevitable casting-about for someone else going on. An unnamed “top Dem” is reportedly encouraging Cook County Sheriff Tom Dart to make the race. Dart is a former state legislator who made big news recently for suspending foreclosure evictions.

• MO-Sen: Michael Steele just referred to Roy Blunt as crap. Well, not in the most literal sense. There was an extended toilet metaphor on a conservative radio talk show and Steele went along with the host’s anti-Blunt anti-insider arguments. Still, the Carnahan ads write themselves.

• NY-Sen-B: Kirsten Gillibrand got yet another endorsement from her House colleagues, from freshman Rep. Eric Massa. Siena is also out with a new New York poll. Gillibrand trails the unlikely-to-run ex-Gov. George Pataki in a hypothetical head-to-head, 42-39 while whomping the only slightly-less-likely-to-run Rep. Peter King, 46-24. (They didn’t poll the Dem primary, where Jonathan Tasini is Gillibrand’s last challenger standing.)

• CA-Gov: Meg Whitman’s campaign strategy seems to be to duck debates and let her money do her talking for her instead. Here’s another eyebrow-raising development, that’s potentially a good line of attack for Dems (or her primary challengers): Whitman didn’t register to vote in California til 2002 (or as a Republican until 2007), and has missed voting in more than half the elections since then, including the 2003 recall.

• MA-Gov: Rasmussen looks at the Massachusetts Governor’s race, and finds I-turned-R Christy Mihos leading incumbent Dem Deval Patrick 40-35, up from a 41-40 lead in June. Patrick leads Republican Charlie Baker 40-39. The utility of this poll is close to zero, though, seeing as how it leaves out likely D-turned-I candidate Tim Cahill, whom polls have found either absorbing enough anti-Patrick votes to let Patrick squeak through, or else winning outright.

• NY-Gov: There’s a certain role about holes, shovels, and not digging that David Paterson seems to be forgetting. He lashed out at critics saying he should stand down for re-election, accusing them of racial bias, and even launched into the media for their coverage (which I don’t think has ever ended well for a politician). The aforementioned Siena poll finds Paterson losing the Dem primary to Andrew Cuomo 65-23, and the general to Rudy Giuliani 56-33 (although he does beat Rick Lazio, 38-37). Cuomo beats Giuliani 53-40, and beats Lazio by a hilarious 66-16 (OK, that’s not as hilarious as the GOP primary, where Giuliani beats Lazio 73-6, with 8 for Erie Co. Exec Chris Collins).

• SC-Gov: Cue up the “frequent flier” jokes. Turns out Mark Sanford, already known for his little jaunt to Argentina and his overeager use of state planes, has also failed to disclose at least 35 flights on private planes that should have been listed on ethics forms or campaign disclosures as ‘things of value.’

• IN-09: Could we really see Hill/Sodrel 5.0? American politics’ most repetitive rivalry may well continue on into 2010, as GOP ex-Rep. Mike Sodrel says he’ll weigh another bid against Rep. Baron Hill in the 9th as soon as he’s done with the book that he’s coloring writing.

• MI-13, 14: Detroiters are feeling surly about their Representatives, it seems. A poll by Deno Noor Polling finds both Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick and John Conyers with negative re-elect numbers: 27/58 for Kilpatrick and 40/44 for Conyers. Not a surprise for Kilpatrick, whose son got bounced out as Detroit’s mayor and who barely survived a primary herself last year, but it’s a new development for Conyers, the second-longest-serving House member; assumedly, this has a lot to do with the conviction of his wife, ex-city councilor Monica Conyers, on bribery charges.

• OR-04: I’d be sad too if I was watching my once-promising House bid crash and burn more than a year out from the election. Republican Springfield mayor Sid Leiken teared up repeatedly during a news conference where he finally announced that he didn’t have documentation for the $2,000 in cash that somehow found its way from his campaign to his mother. He’ll repay the $2,000 out of pocket, he says, but the Sec. of State investigation continues.

• PA-07: Here’s a good photo op for Dem state Rep. Bryan Lentz, running to succeed Rep. Joe Sestak. He’s appearing at the White House to discuss energy policy with Obama administration officials and other energy policy leaders.

• VA-05: Conventional wisdom seems to be coalescing around state Sen. Robert Hurt as GOP nominee; one GOP operative says he’s “60% leaning toward the race.” His state Senate district overlaps about one-quarter of the 5th. State Del. Rob Bell, who was frequently mentioned earlier, seems hard-pressed to win his off-year re-election this year and turn around and take on Rep. Tom Perriello. Two other state Senators sound interested, Frank Ruff and Steve Newman, but sound likely to defer to Hurt if he gets in.

• Seattle Mayor: Primary elections in Seattle were last week, and in typical Washington fashion, ballots from the all-mail-in election are still being counted. In a serious surprise, two-term mayor Greg Nickels won’t be coming back, as he finished third in the top-two nonpartisan primary at 25%. No worries, as he’ll be replaced by someone just as, if not more so, liberal, although someone who’s never held elective office before: the top 2 are local Sierra Club president Mike McGinn (at 28%) and T-Mobile VP and big-time Obama bundler Joe Mallahan (at 27%).

Meanwhile, the King Co. Executive race is down to two. It’s the first time it’s been an officially nonpartisan position (after a GOP-led initiative to change it to nonpartisan passed, as this is the only way a Republican will ever get elected), but everyone still knows that former news anchor Susan Hutchison (who got 37%) is the Republican and county councilor Dow Constantine (who got 22%) is the Democrat. That looks daunting at first, but there were no other major Republicans and three other top-tier Dems in the race (county councilor Larry Phillips, state Sen. Fred Jarrett, and state Rep. Ross Hunter). The four Dems put together got 56%, so, no, King County isn’t going to elect a Republican in November.

• Polltopia: Where should PPP poll next: New Jersey or Virginia? You decide. (Tom Jensen says they’d planned to do New Jersey but skipped it to do Arkansas this week, where he hints at some blood-curdling numbers.)

It looks like Republicans are going to field another repeat candidate next fall: former Rep. Mike Sodrel will announce whether he’ll run against Democratic incumbent Baron Hill tomorrow, and a candidate doesn’t usually go through all this fuss unless they’re actually running:

  Mike Sodrel Will Announce His Decision

  When: 3:30pm on Tuesday, October 9th

  Where: Calumet Club
  1614 E. Spring Street
  New Albany, IN

  Please join us,

  David Buskill
  Chairman, Clark County Republican Party

If Sodrel is in, this would bring “rematch” to a whole new level — this would be the fourth time that he and Hill faced off against each other, with only the 2004 match-up being successful for Sodrel.

Race Tracker: IN-09