OH-05: Weirauch (D) Ahead of Latta (R) By Four Points!

In an amazing report tonight, The Politico quotes a GOP source as saying that a poll taken by the campaign of State Rep. Bob Latta (R-Bowling Green) last week showed him trailing Robin Weirauch (D-Napoleon) by four points.

On the ground in Ohio, we’ve been hearing that internal polls showed a close race, and there was an exciting rumor last week that Weirauch’s pollster said she was only down by three points. This race seemed like it was amazingly close for a R+10 district, but still a long shot. Now, with this leak about Latta’s poll, victory looks like a very real possibility tomorrow.

More after the flip.

The story in The Politico also reports that the campaign manager for State Sen. Steve Buehrer (R-Delta) in the GOP primary, Jim Banks, concedes that “there’s an effect from a primary that’s been carried over” and “no one can deny it was a very nasty and physical election.” He also told The Politico that Weirauch “appeals more to the union and working-class voters – the people who are struggling the most and that want the most change,” and that the bread-and-butter issues on which Weirauch has focused “polled at the top of voter concerns during the primary.”

In contrast to Weirauch’s hard-hitting populist campaign, a GOP source reported to The Politico that Latta’s campaign “was unprepared to handle the race’s newfound attention” and the NRCC “had to dispose resources to respond effectively.” The Politico’s source called the Latta’s ground game “lackluster” and said “the NRCC has become the campaign by proxy.”

Robin Weirauch has busted her butt in this campaign and made great use of the resources and volunteers that she never had in her prior two bids for this seat. She has displayed tremendous message discipline, hammering the jobs and working-class values message over and over, along with her theme of “shaking up Washington.” I will be blogging from Weirauch headquarters in Bowling Green tomorrow, where the energy is reported to be sky high and the GOTV effort is cranking along at top speed. Check Ohio Daily Blog for updates.

OH-05: Wes Clark Promotes Weirauch (D); Momentum Building Fast

Former Democratic presidential contender Gen. Wesley Clark has a post up on his WesPAC blog, praising Robin Weirauch (D-Napoleon) and calling for donations for the special election that is now only twelve days away. Clark describes Weirauch as:

the daughter of a retired Master Sergeant in the United States Air Force, [who] will do more than simply repeat slogans like “Support the Troops.” She will fight to bring a responsible end to the war in Iraq and make sure our veterans receive the health care they deserve.

This is just the latest of many signs I am seeing that the Weirauch campaign is really taking off (examples after the break).

* Weirauch has been endorsed by Emily’s List and a host of labor unions, which means that she has logistical and strategic support for a huge get-out-the-vote election in a contest that will be marked by very low turnout — she did not have Emily’s List’s support in her past races against deceased incumbent Paul Gillmor (R);

* The DNC is deploying internet-based GOTV support;

* Gov. Ted Strickland reportedly will campaign with Weirauch in the next few days, and Sen. Sherrod Brown did so a few days ago — these two political superstars each carried the 5th District in 2006;

* Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo) hosted a big fund-raiser for Weirauch last night, and all the other Democratic members of Congress from Ohio are actively supporting her as well (I was at a fund-raiser two night ago featuring Rep. Stephanie Tubbs Jones(D-Cleveland));

* I just went to ActBlue.com and Weirauch is second on the list of busiest recipients this week;

* Even hard-core Republican voters in the 5th District were extremely turned off by the bitterly negative GOP primary and many will either stay home or vote for change — I heard at the Weirauch fund-raiser two nights ago that the father of a well-known former GOP state legislator, himself an outspoken right-winger, is supporting Weirauch.

This is a race that will set the stage for 2008, and an upset victory is looking more and more possible. Please click here now and support the Weirauch campaign!

Cross-posted at Ohio Daily Blog

OH-05: First Fund-Raising Reports for Special Election

The first reporting deadline for the special election to replace deceased Rep. Paul Gilmor (R) was yesterday, and the big story is that ideological extremist State Sen. Steve Buehrer (R-Delta) has a large Club for Growth-generated cash advantage over the conservative but more pragmatic State Rep. Bob Latta (R-Bowling Green), whose father preceded Gillmor and who is leading in the GOP primary according to the limited polling data available. On the Democratic side, third-time candidate Robin Weirauch (D-Napoleon) is far back in fund-raising but has received a recent boost from unions, and she faces no serious primary opposition to deplete her war chest. The primary is set for regular general election day, November 6th.

Details after the flip. And visit Ohio Daily Blog for continuing coverage!

Buehrer reported total fund-raising after refunds of $256,017.00, less than the “more than $260,000” he had told the Toledo Blade to expect. Of that amount, $13,000 is from PACs and 60% of the rest is from individuals whose contributions are earmarked as relating to the Club for Growth, and almost all of them non-residents. Buehrer’s cash-on-hand is $188,217.97. His campaign has been buttressed by large independent TV buys by Club for Growth, attacking Latta as “tax happy” despite a generally anti-tax voting record.

Latta reported  $238,582 in total contributions, 90% of them Ohio residents, with $23,050 from PACs. Latta has spent more than Buehrer, leaving only $86,485.36 as cash-on-hand on his report. However, today’s Toledo Blade reports that Latta’s current cash on hand is actually $150,185, attributable in large part to loaning himself $50,000. Of course, Latta sees a positive message in the out-of-state/in-state contrast (quotes from the Blade story):

“Not only do [local Ohioans] contribute, but they’ve got relatives and friends within the district,” Mr. Latta said. “It’s a big advantage for the folks at home to support you.” …

“What connection do these [Club for Growth] people have to northwest Ohio?” Mr. Latta asked. “Do we want this group to be able to buy an election? I don’t think that’s what voters want.”

Republicans Mike Smitley (R-Van Wert), Mark Hollenbaugh (R-Bowling Green), and Fred Pieper (R-Paulding) did not raise enough money to require filing.

On the Democratic side, Weirauch reported taking in $40,354.89 in contributions, of which $4,750 is from Democratic party committees and $2,200 is from PACs. Over $19,000 is from individual contributions too small to require itemization. She reported $26,845.17 cash-on-hand, but the Blade reports that she received an additional $11,000 from unions after the filing deadline, so at the moment she has $37,845 on hand. “I’m very enthusiastic about our fund-raising and I’m confident we’ll have the resources we need,” Weirauch told the Blade. Wierauch’s primary opponent George Mays, who is self employed in the karaoke and disc jockey business, did not raise enough to require filing.

I’m (pleasantly) surprised by the news about union support for Weirauch, as I had heard that they were leery about supporting Wierauch strongly this time around after seeing her lose two prior attempts at the Congressional seat. If their attitude has changed, it has to be due to the nastiness of the GOP primary fight between Buehrer and Latta (extraordinarily negative for this staid, largely rural district), and perhaps the impressive ground-game effort displayed by the Weirauch camp, both tending to improve her prospects in the general election.

I’m sure that Weirauch would decline to answer the question of which GOP front-runner she’d rather face, but in my mind it would unquestionably be Buehrer, whose ideological extremism and out-of-state support would surely be negatives to moderate and independent voters in the general election (set for December 11th). With his larger war chest and more help from PACs like Club for Growth, Buehrer could conceivably make that come true, although Latta still seems to me the candidate to beat on the GOP side.

Disbelief: SCHIP Veto & The Ohio Special Election (OH-05)

I’m Robin Weirauch. I’m running for Congress in the December 11th special election in Ohio’s 5th District and I need your support!

When I heard that President Bush had vetoed the bill expanding SCHIP, I couldn’t believe it. The State Children’s Health Insurance Program helps millions of American children whose families are struggling.

I recently spoke with a single mother from our district that told me she has worked at least two jobs her whole adult life but has never had health insurance through her work. Her daughter has been covered by the SCHIP program since infancy.  She told me she wouldn’t know what she would do without the program.

Read the rest of the story and see my video message after the jump:

She was glad to have the choice with SCHIP between three plans so that she could, for example, choose a plan that would give vision coverage for her daughter, which she has needed most of her young life.  She was not aware of the President’s veto of the expansion of the program or of the fact that the President’s budget did not provide enough funding to cover all those already in the program. She would be in serious financial trouble if her daughter’s healthcare coverage through SCHIP were not available.

She has to pay for her own insurance coverage and is forced to put off the regular checkups that are recommended until she can afford to pay the deductible.  She delays her vision checkup and replacing her glasses for much longer than recommended as she must save up to be able to afford it. If she also had to pay for her daughter’s coverage, she wouldn’t be able to take care of her own health needs.

People often ask me what difference one Representative can make in Congress? But when a 15-vote margin will decide whether American children in need will receive health care or be struck by the business end of George Bush’s veto pen, it becomes evident that every vote counts.

This is where I need your help.  We all know that the online community can  bring much needed attention to competitive special elections.  Senator Sherrod Brown and Governor Ted Strickland both won this district and I believe that we will win this special– but I need your support! 

While my Republican opponents Bob Latta and Steve Buehrer are focused on tearing each other down, I’m focused on the issues that matter to working families. Where would the Republican candidates be on this critical issue? Would they side with the bipartisan coalition fighting for children or with the President who denies them care? Voters deserve to know. They know where I stand– for kids, every time.
Please visit my website to learn more and support our campaign today!

Thank you!

Robin Weirauch