Tag: Ben Chandler

It’s been widely rumored for several weeks, but today it became official: Kentucky AG Jack Conway will be running for the Democratic nomination in the 2010 Senate race.

Attorney General Jack Conway said today that he will seek the Democratic nomination next year for the U.S. Senate seat held by Republican Jim Bunning….

The attorney general is expected to kick off his campaign with a press conference Monday attended by Luallen, Chandler, U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth, D-3rd District, and perhaps other Democratic leaders who are backing him.

This comes hot on the heels of yesterday’s blockbuster PPP poll that showed every possible Democrat beating Jim Bunning. The poll showed Rep. Ben Chandler in the best position vis a vis Bunning, leaving me momentarily wondering if Chandler would try elbowing Conway aside, but it looks like the informal troika of Chandler, Conway, and Luallen have successfully resolved the issue of who gets to run for Senate, and will all be appearing together. (The same poll shows Conway beating Bunning by 9, so we’re still in great shape with him.)

This won’t be an uncontested primary. Far from it, as Conway will still need to get past Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo, who doesn’t match up as well against Bunning according to PPP, but has the advantage of having come within a few points of Bunning in 2004, and who has the endorsement of Gov. Steve Beshear. As with the Democratic primary in Ohio, the trick will be keeping the primary competitive enough that the candidates get the free media needed to raise their profiles going into the general, but keeping it from lapsing into the negativity that can wound the primary winner going forward. (H/t MediaCzech and generalleeferd.)

PPP (4/2-3, registered voters):

Ben Chandler (D): 47

Jim Bunning (R-inc): 33

Jack Conway (D): 42

Jim Bunning (R-inc): 33

Crit Luallen (D): 42

Jim Bunning (R-inc): 34

Dan Mongiardo (D): 43

Jim Bunning (R-inc): 36

Ben Chandler (D): 40

Trey Grayson (R): 34

Jack Conway (D): 37

Trey Grayson (R): 33

Crit Luallen (D): 34

Trey Grayson (R): 36

Dan Mongiardo (D): 36

Trey Grayson (R): 40

(MoE: ±4%)

We’ve had lots of clues that Jim Bunning is in trouble: a Research 2000 poll from January showing him in dead heats with Democratic challengers, reports of “lousy” fundraising, and not-so-private efforts by Mitch McConnell and John Cornyn to give him his gold watch and usher him out the back door. But now we have a poll, via PPP, that shows just how dire things have gotten for him. Bunning’s job performance approval is 28/54 (notably worse than anything Chris Dodd has put up lately), and only 42% of Republicans approve.

Bunning loses by fairly wide margins to all four of his potential Democratic challengers, most significantly losing by 14 to Rep. Ben Chandler. (Chandler, AG Jack Conway, and Auditor Crit Luallen all seem to be in a semi-friendly standoff over which one gets to run; maybe these numbers will prompt Chandler to jump.) Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo is the only candidate in the race; although he would seem to have a name rec advantage from having run against Bunning in 2004, Mongiardo actually fares the least well, winning by ‘only’ 7. Mongiardo is the best-known of the Big 4, but has the highest negatives too, with 41/34 favorability. (The Lexington-based Chandler is at 38/28.)

The best favorability numbers in the poll, however, belong to Republican SoS Trey Grayson, who’s at 46/19. In head-to-heads Grayson also fares much better than Bunning, losing to Chandler by 6, to Conway by 4, and narrowly beating Luallen and Mongiardo. This points to one potential danger for Democrats: that Bunning is hitting his nadir too early, giving him plenty of time to shuffle off into retirement and allow the more likable Grayson time to ramp up for a competitive run. Of course, that scenario presupposes a rational Bunning interested in doing what’s best for the whole state GOP, not just for Jim Bunning.

PPP also polls state senate president David Williams as a potential GOP candidate (Williams met with Cornyn regarding a possible run). However, Williams fares even worse than Bunning in head-to-heads, losing 45-30 to Chandler, 43-29 to Conway, 41-31 to Luallen, and 43-32 to Mongiardo. I initially assumed the problem with Williams is he’s a little-known state legislator, but he seems as well-known as the Democratic candidates; he just has lousy favorability ratings (28/41). So for the GOP, it’s starting to look like Grayson or bust.

• CA-45: After years of letting California’s 45th district (the most Democratic-leaning district in California still represented by a Republican, where Obama won 52-47) lay fallow, the Democrats actually seem to have a top-tier (or close to it) challenger lined up. Palm Springs mayor Steve Pougnet just started a campaign committee for a face-off against Mary Bono Mack. The openly gay Pougnet has been mayor of the city of 40,000 since 2007.

• KY-Sen: Dr. Dan may get some company in the primary. 39-year-old Attorney General Jack Conway has announced “there’s a good chance” he’ll run for Senate in 2010. Subtexts in other quotes suggest that he’s been negotiating with Rep. Ben Chandler and Auditor Crit Luallen, who may be stepping aside for him.

• CO-Gov: Now this seems unexpected. Ex-Rep. Scott McInnis, after butting heads with more conservative elements in the state GOP and studiously avoiding the 2008 and 2010 senate races in Colorado, has chosen a much more uphill battle: he’s running for governor against Democratic incumbent Bill Ritter. He may still face a primary battle against up-and-coming state senator Josh Penry (who used to be McInnis’s press secretary).

• PA-Gov, PA-06: Jim Gerlach acknowledged in an interview that people have been soliciting him to run against Arlen Specter in the 2010 senate primary (which would turn it into moderate/moderate/fiscal wingnut/religious wingnut chaos). However, he’s still charging full speed ahead on his gubernatorial bid instead.

• MI-12: Here’s one of the least likely places you could imagine for a heated primary, but it may happen. State senator Mickey Switalski will challenge 14-term incumbent Sander Levin in this reliably Dem (65-33 for Obama) district in the Detroit suburbs. (To give you an idea how long Levin has been around, he’s Carl Levin’s older brother.) This doesn’t seem to be an ideological challenge as much as Switalski is term-limited out of the state senate in 2010 and needs somewhere else to go.

• CA-10: San Francisco city attorney analyst (and former political editor for the San Francisco Examiner) Adriel Hampton has announced his candidacy for the open seat being vacated by Ellen Tauscher. What may be most memorable about this is that his may be the first ever candidacy announcement made by Twitter; he faces long odds against state senator Mark DeSaulnier (who won’t announce until Tauscher’s resignation is official).

• New Dems: One other musical chairs item left in the wake of Tauscher’s resignation is who takes over as the chair of the New Dems. The New Dems have five vice-chairs, but it looks like the hyper-ambitious Joe Crowley has enough support nailed down to take command bloodlessly. The CW is wondering whether this will complicate Crowley’s efforts to join House leadership (he lost a caucus vice-chair bid in 2006), but my question is what the heck is a New Dem doing in NY-07 (which went for Obama 79-20)?

• FL-20: Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz told the Miami Herald on Saturday that she successfully battled breast cancer over the past year. We wish her good health as she continues her recovery. (D)

• Maps: For those of you who enjoy seeing maps breaking things down by congressional districts, here’s a new one from real estate site hotpads.com: which CDs have the highest foreclosure rates.

After nary a peep in months from the office of Dem Rep. Ben Chandler on the subject of a potential challenge to GOP crumb-bum extraordinaire Jim Bunning, Chandler tells the AP that he’s considering making a bid after receiving encouragement from the DSCC. He’s even gone so far as to meet with Democratic Gov. Steve Beshear on Friday to discuss his potential run. (Hat-tip: Senate Guru)

If Chandler were to jump in, this would set up a primary battle with Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo. Attorney General Jack Conway and state Auditor Crit Luallen are also considering the race, with Conway seemingly being the most eager of the pair to run. However, in a recent interview with Page One, Conway said he was “regularly speaking” with both Luallen and Chandler about a bid, and I would expect both of them to back off if Chandler pulls the trigger.

Meanwhile, Jim Bunning is already casting aspersions on wide swaths of his home state:

At a Fourth District Lincoln/Reagan Day Dinner in Boone County, Bunning said, “I need your support to offset Lexington, Louisville and some other people who don’t think like we do in Northern Kentucky.”

True, Bunning didn’t go so far as to call these folks “fake Kentuckians”, but I still don’t think a strategy of polarizing the vote around the Cinci ‘burbs is going to cut it for him.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (1/29-2/2, registered voters):

Ben Chandler (D): 42

Jim Bunning (R-inc): 45

Jack Conway (D): 42

Jim Bunning (R-inc): 46

Crit Luallen (D): 41

Jim Bunning (R-inc): 45

Dan Mongiardo (D): 42

Jim Bunning (R-inc): 46

Ben Chandler (D): 42

Trey Grayson (R): 42

Jack Conway (D): 41

Trey Grayson (R): 42

Crit Luallen (D): 42

Trey Grayson (R): 42

Dan Mongiardo (D): 42

Trey Grayson (R): 43

(MoE: ±4%)

R2K polls the Bluegrass State on behalf of the Orangehate Site, and we are looking at a very tight Senate race. Jim Bunning, who has been the subject of some very public pressure from Republican leadership to get out of the way, is leading his likely Democratic opposition by 3 or 4 points. The four likeliest Democratic challengers (Rep. Ben Chandler, Attorney General Jack Conway, Auditor Crit Luallen, and Bunning’s 2004 opponent, Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo; of these four, only Mongiardo has declared) all put up virtually the same numbers, indicating, as with most polls we’ve been seeing in the last few months, that they’re all basically running as “generic D” right now. (Hard to believe, I know, but those creatures known as “voters” apparently aren’t in round-the-clock campaign mode like we are.)

On the one hand, these poll numbers may come as a bit of a surprise to people looking at the Kentucky senate race as one where the Democrats have a clear edge. Bunning has a few advantages here, though: one, the power of incumbency, and the name recognition and general staying-power that come with it. And two: the overall Republican strength in Kentucky, one of the few states that seems to keep on moving away from us at the presidential level, although it’s still quite amenable to statewide Dems.

On the other hand, Bunning clearly is in bad shape here, falling far short of the relative safety of the 50% mark, based on pretty wide name recognition (41 favorable/47 unfavorable), leaving him little room to go up. And that’s before he’s exposed to the rigors of a two-year campaign, which didn’t go so well last time back when he was five younger.

R2K also polls GOP Secretary of State Trey Grayson, a young up-and-comer who would assumedly be the party’s preferred candidate. He doesn’t fare as well as Bunning, but unlike Bunning, he’s not well-known and yet liked by those who know him (39 favorable/18 unfavorable), giving him a lot more room for expansion. This is why Grayson is, by most people, considered the more dangerous GOP option.

Christmas seems to be coming a few days early for Kentucky Democrats: Jim Bunning, who barely won re-election in the Republican year of 2004 against a little-known state senator (after several campaign trail incidents that called into question his mental faculties), plans to run for a third term. The Louisville Courier-Journal is reporting today that Bunning has formed a steering committee to begin fundraising for 2010. (H/t RandySF.)

Given how red Kentucky is, at least at the presidential level, this has to be one race where we’d do better running against a crazy incumbent rather than against a generic R (especially in an off-year election where there won’t be presidential coattails to help Bunning over the finish line). As we discussed in our Kentucky recruitment thread a few weeks ago, Rep. Ben Chandler would probably be the best bet on the Dem side (although he’d leave behind a pretty red district to fill). Other names include Auditor Crit Luallen (who, perhaps unwisely, turned down the opportunity to go after Mitch McConnell this year) and Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo (who lost to Bunning in 2004 while still a state senator).

Reasearch 2000 for the Lexington Herald Leader (PDF), taken Oct. 22-24 (likely voters, no trendlines):

Chandler (D): 41
McConnell (R-inc.): 46
Undecided: 13

Stumbo (D): 37
McConnell (R-inc.): 46
Undecided: 17

Luallen (D): 40
McConnell (R-inc.): 45
Undecided: 15

Horne (D): 34
McConnell (R-inc.): 45
Undecided: 21
(MoE: ±4%)

They say you can’t tell the players without a program. So:

• Ben Chandler currently represents Kentucky’s 6th Congressional District. He lost a gubernatorial race to Gov. Ernie Fletcher in 2003, but held statewide office for many years prior.
• Crit Luallen is Kentucky’s State Auditor. She is seeking re-election to that post this year. The same poll discussed in this post also shows Luallen with a commanding 55-33 lead in the auditor’s race.
• Greg Stumbo is the outgoing state Attorney General. He is probably best known for bringing charges against Fletcher over the latter’s corrupt state hiring practices. Stumbo ran for the Dem Lt. Gov. nod earlier this year on a ticket with Bruce Lunsford, but the pair lost to Steve Beshear and Daniel Mongiardo.
• Andrew Horne is a Marine who lost a primary last year to John Yarmuth in KY-03. (Yarmuth of course went on to defeat GOP Rep. Anne Northup in one of the bigger upsets of 2006.)

The most interesting thing here is not just that McConnell is held under 50% by all comers, but by the fact that he gets the same score no matter who he goes up against. Horne only has 45% name rec (which actually strikes me as high), and yet he still keeps McConnell at 45%.

This undoubtedly has a lot to do with McConnell’s weak favorability rating – just 47-46, with 25% saying their opinion is “very” unfavorable. This is in line with SUSA’s numbers (49-46). I’ll note that McConnell’s internal polling (apparently provided to the newspaper in this accompanying article) has him at 55-32, but when set against the Herald-Leader and SUSA numbers, this survey is an outlier.

The favorability numbers for McConnell’s potential challengers:

Chandler: 57-31
Luallen: 56-21
Stumbo: 49-38
Horne: 36-9

Chandler has said he won’t run, but he hasn’t issued any Shermanesque statements. Luallen is obviously waiting until after the upcoming elections. Stumbo and Horne are both in exploratory modes. No matter who our nominee ultimately is, Mitch McConnell is looking awfully weak for a Republican party leader sitting in a red state. This could definitely be a pick-up opportunity if we see another wave election.