Tag: OH

This diary presents two different flavors of Ohio maps: Fair Districts (a la Florida) and GOP-Friendly. Ohio doesn’t have partisan data in the App, so these maps represent my best guesses. I definitely consider these maps to be more discussion-starters about maps under the newly-released 2010 data than polished proposals. In the comments, please feel free to share your own maps or information about local partisan leanings that needs to be taken into account.

Fair Districts

Ohio’s geography doesn’t lend itself to “must draw” fair-districts as much as Florida’s does, but I think this is a pretty good stab at it. All three of the counties big enough to support a single district have them, and the rest of the districts are reasonably compact. There are 13 counties statewide split between two or more districts. Columbus is the only incorporated locality split between districts. This is mostly because Columbus has some bizarrely intricate boundaries that are hard to follow. I ended up using the Scioto River as my boundary guide instead of city limits.

If my ratings are to be trusted (and they probably aren’t), this would be a 9 R – 7 D map. VRA note: OH-15 is a plurality African American district, 47.0% VAP.

GOP Friendly

I used the first map as a base, which is probably not the best idea. But I like good-government maps, and I wanted to try to find a GOP map that conformed at least somewhat to good-government principles. All changes described are relative to the Fair Districts map above.

The basic idea here is to pair up Turner and Austria in a Dayton-based district and to pair up Fudge and Kucinich in a Cleveland-based district. Columbus also gets a Democratic vote sink, which means that this map calls for the Republicans to take the hit on both seats. That might not sound “GOP-Friendly”, but they’re maxed out in Ohio post-2010. I think 11-5 is not a bad target for them.

So what’s changed?

First, Cincinnati. Hamilton County is about 80k too many people for a district. In my Fair Districts map, that 80k were suburban whites added to Boehner’s district. In my GOP-Friendly map, that 80k is a plurality-African-American strip along the Ohio River, mainly in downtown Cincinnati, added to Schmidt’s district. Schmidt might not be able to carry a district that incorporates that part of Hamilton. But most Republicans should be able to, so I think worst case scenario is that they lose that district for a cycle. I’ve also wrapped Boehner’s district around Dayton again, so that he has more of his current constituents.

Second, the northwest. Kaptur’s (under this map) OH-08 has been stretched eastwards, pulling OH-07 and OH-09 north. OH-07 and OH-09 have also swapped some territory. I’m pretty sure under the Fair Districts maps the district that Latta lives in has more of Jordan’s old constituents and vice versa. I tried to rectify that here.

Third, the northeast. There are some major changes here. OH-08 and OH-09 have subsumed Lorain County. This has push OH-14 south and east, where it picks up all of Cuyahoga outside of OH-15 and plunges down into Summitt County and (re)gains Sutton as its incumbent. OH-12 becomes a dumbbell-shaped district linking Akron and Youngstown. It does some swapping with the neighboring OH 16 and OH 11 to get incumbents’ residences right. OH-13 drops out of Lorain and picks up Ashland, shoring it up relative to the Fair Districts map. I would be worried as a Republican about LaTourette, because without partisan data, I’m not sure were he stands in that district.

Fourth, the southwest. Johnson’s district drops Youngstown, to his relief. It stretches south into OH-04 (which went into Cincinnati). It still needs to grow though, so it pushes OH-10 north. This is convenient, because OH-10 needed to come north so that Gibbs would live in it. (I think he lives in Holmes County, but I’m not sure.)

Lastly, Columbus. This probably ought to change, since if the Republicans do create a Democratic vote sink here, they’ll want it to be the best one possible. But without partisan data by precinct, I have no idea what that looks like. If the Republicans aren’t willing to concede a distrct in Columbus (which seems likely, if foolhardy), I think they should probably look at splitting Franklin four ways. Again, without partisan data (and without knowing where exactly Stivers lives), it’s hard to say what that should look like. But here’s a possibility:

Previous diaries

Summary:

 OH has 18 representatives: 10 D, 8 R

 OK has  5 representatives:  1 D, 4 R

 OR has  5 representatives:  4 D, 1 R

Possibly vulnerable:

 OH-01 (D)

 OH-02 (R)

 OH-15 (D)

 OH-16 (D)

Sources:

House vote in 2008 from WaPo

VoteView (ranked from 1 for most liberal to 447 for most conservative; more than 435 because some districts had more than one rep in the 110th congress)

Race Tracker

Obama vote by CD from Swing State

National Atlas for maps

and my previous diaries.

District: OH-01

Location Southwestern OH, bordering IN and KY, including Cincinnati map

Cook PVI D + 1

Representative Steve Dreihaus (D) Not confirmed

VoteView NA

First elected 2008

2008 margin 51-49 over Steve Chabot

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 55-44

Bush margin 2004 51-50

Current opponents Steven Chabot

Demographics   27th fewest Latinos (1.1%)

Assessment Dreihaus ousted Chabot, the incumbent; now, there’s  a rematch.  Vulnerable.  Both Dreihaus and Chabot have raised about $400K.

District: OH-02

Location  Central part of southern OH, bordering KY  map

Cook PVI R + 13

Representative Jean Schmidt (R) Not confirmed

VoteView 374.5

First elected 2005

2008 margin 45-37 over Vic Wulsin.  Remainder to David Krikorian, an independent.

2006 margin 50-49

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 40-59

Bush margin 2004 64-36

Current opponents There are 4 confirmed Democrats:

Vic Wulsin

Jack Krikorian (no web site)

Jim Parker

and

Todd Book

Demographics  22nd fewest Latinos (1.0%)

Assessment Schmidt is truly odious, and this district is becoming more Democratic by the day – although it is still a Republican stronghold.  I met Wulsin in 2008, and I like her.

District: OH-03

Location Southwestern OH, including Dayton  map

Cook PVI R + 5

Representative Mike Turner (R)

VoteView 278

First elected 2002

2008 margin 64-36 over Jane Mitikides

2006 margin 59-41

2004 margin 62-38

Obama margin 47-51

Bush margin 2004 46-55

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 26th fewest Latinos (1.1%)

Assessment Long shot

District: OH-04

Location Slightly north and west of central OH map

Cook PVI R + 15

Representative Jim Jordan (R) Not confirmed

VoteView 426

First elected 2006

2008 margin 65-35 over Mike Carroll

2006 margin 60-40

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 38-60

Bush margin 2004 34-65

Current opponents

Demographics 33rd fewest Latinos (1.2%)

Assessment Long shot

District: OH-05

Location Northwestern OH, bordering MI and IN  map

Cook PVI R + 9

Representative Bob Latta (R) Not confirmed

VoteView 345

First elected 2007

2008 margin 64-36 over George Mays

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 45-53

Bush margin 2004 61-39

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 41st most rural (51.1%), 36th fewest Blacks (1.1%)  

Assessment Long shot

District: OH-06

Location Southeastern OH, a long narrow strip along the whole of the border with WV map

Cook PVI R + 2

Representative Charlie Wilson (D)

VoteView 205.5

First elected 2006

2008 margin 62-33 over Richard Stobbs

2006 margin 62-38

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 48-50

Bush margin 2004 51-49

Current opponents Donald Allen

Demographics 47th most rural (50.0%),  62nd poorest (median income = $33K), 11th most White (95.2%), 11th fewest Latinos (0.8%)

Assessment Although this is a swing district in POTUS, Wilson looks safe.

District: OH-07

Location Just south of central OH map

Cook PVI R + 7

Representative Steve Austria (R) Not confirmed

VoteView NA

First elected 2008

2008 margin 58-42 over Sharen Neuhardt

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 45-54

Bush margin 2004 57-43

Current opponents

Demographics 26th fewest Latinos (1.1%)

Assessment Long shot

District: OH-08

Location Central part of western OH, bordering IN map

Cook PVI R + 14

Representative John Boehner (R)

VoteView 407.5

First elected 1990

2008 margin 68-32 over Nicholas von Stein

2006 margin 64-36

2004 margin 69-31

Obama margin 38-60

Bush margin 2004 64-35

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 73rd most Whites (91.8%), 42nd fewest Latinos (1.3%)

Assessment

District: OH-09

Location Northern OH, bordering Lake Erie, including Toledo map

Cook PVI D + 10

Representative Marcy Kaptur (D)

VoteView 72

First elected 1982

2008 margin 74-26 over Bradley Leavitt

2006 margin 74-26

2004 margin 68-32

Obama margin 62-36

Bush margin 2004 42-55

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: OH-10

Location Northern OH, bordering Lake Erie, including part of Cleveland map

Cook PVI D + 8

Representative Dennis Kucinich (D)

VoteView 2

First elected 1996

2008 margin 57-39 over Jim Trakas

2006 margin 66-34

2004 margin 60-34

Obama margin 59-39

Bush margin 2004 41-58

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: OH-11

Location Cleveland and eastern suburbs map

Cook PVI D + 32

Representative Marcia Fudge (D) Not confirmed

VoteView NA

First elected  2008

2008 margin 85-15 over Tom Pekarik

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 85-14

Bush margin 2004 18-81

Current opponents Safe

Demographics 52nd lowest income (median = $32K), 63rd fewest Whites (38.8%), 18th most Blacks (55.5%)

Assessment

District: OH-12

Location Central OH, including part of Columbus map

Cook PVI D + 1

Representative Pat Tiberi (R)

VoteView 316

First elected 2000

2008 margin 55-42 over David Robinson

2006 margin 57-43

2004 margin 62-38

Obama margin 53-46

Bush margin 2004 51-49

Current opponents Paula Brooks (obviously not a full web  site)

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment From the Cook PVI numbers, it should be a bit vulnerable; I don’t know anything about Paula Brooks.

District: OH-13

Location Northern OH, including Akron map

Cook PVI D + 5

Representative Betty Sutton (D)

VoteView 98.5

First elected 2006

2008 margin 65-35 over David Potter

2006 margin 61-39

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 57-42

Bush margin 2004 44-56

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: OH-14

Location Northeastern corner of OH, bordering PA and Lake Erie map

Cook PVI R + 3

Representative Steven LaTourette (R)

VoteView 264

First elected 1994

2008 margin 58-39 over Bill O’Neill

2006 margin 58-39

2004 margin 63-37

Obama margin 49-49

Bush margin 2004 53-44

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 30th fewest in poverty (5.7%), 30th most Whites (93.8%), 42nd fewest Latinos (1.3%)

Assessment Long shot

District: OH-15

Location Central OH, including Columbus map

Cook PVI D + 1

Representative Mary Jo Kilroy (D)

VoteView NA

First elected  2008

2008 margin 311 votes out of 260,000 over Steve Stivers

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 54-45

Bush margin 2004 50-50

Current opponents David Ryon and Steve Stivers

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Vulnerable

District: OH-16

Location North and east of central OH map

Cook PVI R + 4

Representative John Boccieri (D) Not confirmed

VoteView NA

First elected 2008

2008 margin 54-46 over Kirk Schuring

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 48-50

Bush margin 2004 54-46

Current opponents None confirmed, but a lot of rumors and people considering running, see the WIKI

Demographics 17th fewest Latinos (0.9%)

Assessment A freshman in a Republican district has to be considered vulnerable

District: OH-17

Location  Northeastern OH, bordering PA, including Youngstown map

Cook PVI D + 12

Representative Tim Ryan (D)

VoteView 109

First elected 2002

2008 margin 78-22 over Duane Grassell

2006 margin 80-20

2004 margin 77-23

Obama margin 62-36

Bush margin 2004 63-37

Current opponents No Republicans, but a bunch of Democrats are considering primaries, see the WIKI

Demographics 67th fewest Latinos (1.6%)

Assessment Safe for the Democrat, Ryan or other

District: OH-18

Location South and east of central OH map

Cook PVI R + 7

Representative Zack Space (D)

VoteView 217

First elected 2006

2008 margin 60-40 over Fred Dailey

2006 margin 62-38

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 45-52

Bush margin 2004 57-41

Current opponents Jeannette Moll, possibly others

Demographics 24th most rural (56.7%), 7th most White (95.9%), tied for least Latinos (0.6%)

Assessment Looks fairly safe; Space fits the district.

District: OK-01

Location  Shaped like a key standing on end, centered on Tulsa in northeast OK, a tiny bit of border with KS map

Cook PVI R + 16

Representative John Sullivan (R)

VoteView 401

First elected 2002

2008 margin 66-34 over Georgianna Oliver

2006 margin 64-31

2004 margin 60-38

Obama margin 34-66

Bush margin 2004 35-65

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Long shot

District: OK-02

Location Eastern OK, bordering MO and AR map

Cook PVI R + 14

Representative Dan Boren (D)

VoteView 225

First elected 2004

2008 margin 70-30 over Raymond Wickson

2006 margin 73-27

2004 margin 66-34

Obama margin 34-66

Bush margin 2004 41-59

Current opponents Dan Arnett and David Edmonds

Demographics 9th most rural (64.4%), 12th lowest income (median = $28K), 11th most nonWhite, nonBlack, NonLatino (mostly 16.8% American Indian)

Assessment Boren isn’t exactly a progressive (UNDERSTATEMENT) but he did 36 points better than Obama.  He seems safe.

District: OK-03

Location The panhandle of OK, and east to Oklahoma City suburbs, borders TX, NM, CO, and KS map

Cook PVI R + 24

Representative Frank Lucas (R)

VoteView 315

First elected 1994

2008 margin 70-24 over Frankie Robbins

2006 margin 67-33

2004 margin 82-18 (vs. minor party)

Obama margin 27-73

Bush margin 2004 72-28

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 54th most rural (49.3%), 53rd lowest income (median = $32K)

Assessment Long shot

District: OK-04

Location Southwestern OK, bordering TX, including suburbs of Oklahoma City map

Cook PVI R + 18

Representative Tom Cole (R)

VoteView 330

First elected 2002

2008 margin 66-29 over Blake Cummings

2006 margin 65-35

2004 margin 78-22 (against minor party)

Obama margin 34-66

Bush margin 2004 59-41

Current opponents No Democrats, but there is a primary

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Long shot

District: OK-05

Location Oklahoma City and some points southeast of there map

Cook PVI R + 13

Representative Mary Fallin (R) Retiring to run for Governor

VoteView NA

First elected NA

2008 margin NA

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 41-59

Bush margin 2004 64-36

Current opponents A lot of Republicans will probably run in a primary for this safe R seat

Demographics 78th lowest income (median = $34K)

Assessment Safe for whichever Repub wins

District: OR-01

Location  Northwestern OR, bordering WA and the Pacific, including parts of Portland and its suburbs  map

Cook PVI D + 8

Representative David Wu (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 132.5

First elected 1998

2008 margin 73% against several minor party candidates

2006 margin 63-34

2004 margin 58-38

Obama margin 61-36

Bush margin 2004 55-44

Current opponents Stephen Broadhead and Rob Corneilles

Demographics  36th fewest Blacks (1.1%)

Assessment Safe

District: OR-02

Location The eastern 2/3rds of OR, bordering WA, ID, NV, and CA  map

Cook PVI R + 10

Representative Greg Walden (R) May run for governor

VoteView 280

First elected 1998

2008 margin 70-26 over Noah Lemas

2006 margin 67-30

2004 margin 72-26

Obama margin 43-54

Bush margin 2004 61-38

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 15th most veterans (17.3%), 6th fewest Blacks (0.4%)

Assessment Safe for whichever Republican gets it, even if Walden runs.

District: OR-03

Location Northern OR, bordering WA, includes Portland and suburbs, and Mt Hood.  map

Cook PVI D + 19

Representative Earl Blumenauer (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 54

First elected 1996

2008 margin 75-25 over Delia Lopez

2006 margin 73-23

2004 margin 71-24

Obama margin 71-26

Bush margin 2004 33-67

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: OR-04

Location Southwestern OR, bordering CA and the Pacific, including Eugene  map

Cook PVI D + 2

Representative Peter DeFazio (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 142

First elected 1986

2008 margin 83% against several minor party candidates

2006 margin 62-38

2004 margin 61-38

Obama margin 54-43

Bush margin 2004 49-49

Current opponents Sid Leken an Jaynee Germond

Demographics   11th fewest Blacks (0.5%), 24th most veterans (16.9%)

Assessment Safe

District: OR-05

Location  A T-shaped district in northwestern OR.  map

Cook PVI D + 1

Representative Kurt Schrader (D)

VoteView NA

First elected 2008

2008 margin 55-38 over Mike Erickson

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 54-43

Bush margin 2004 50-49

Current opponents None confirmed, but a lot of Repubs considering a run, see the WIKI

Demographics 18th fewest Blacks (0.6%)

Assessment Winning by 17 in your first race looks good; probably safe.  Schrader has raised $400K

FL-Pres

McCain (R) 47%

Obama (D) 47%

http://www.rasmussenreports.co…

OH-Pres

McCain (R) 48%

Obama (D) 47%

http://www.rasmussenreports.co…

PA-Pres

Obama (D) 50%

McCain (R) 42%

http://www.rasmussenreports.co…

CO-Pres

Obama (D) 49%

McCain (R) 48%

http://www.rasmussenreports.co…

VA-Pres

Obama (D) 50%

McCain (R) 47%

http://www.rasmussenreports.co…

Solid numbers for Obama in all five states.

21st Century Democrats is excited about the extraordinary amount of enthusiasm Barack Obama’s nomination has generated. The Pew Research Center is suggesting increased voter turnout in the general election bodes well for Democrats. However, some stats from the primary season show that increased turnout for the presidential election doesn’t always help down-ballot races.

In fact, assuming a strong Presidential ticket will pull Democratic candidates in the House, the Senate, and local offices to victory is dangerous. This assumption is not in line with electoral empirics or America’s personality. Splitting tickets will always occur in our nation which prides itself on having a “maverick spirit” and values competence over loyalty. More importantly, many Americans will rightfully not vote for candidates they are unfamiliar with. Why would anyone put someone they know nothing about in a tremendous position of power? In the midst of all the excitement generated by the Obama campaign, we cannot forget that voters need to have face to face contact with canvassers for all our candidates, not just our candidate for President.

Looking at this year’s primaries, there is a substantial discrepancy between the number of people who voted for Democratic Presidential Candidates and the number of people who voted for other Democrats. Across the board, significantly less people voted for other Democratic candidates than voted for Democratic Presidential Candidates.

In Pennsylvania there was a stark disparity between votes accumulated by Democratic Presidential Candidates and Democrats running for other state-wide offices. There were only two contested statewide primaries in Pennsylvania this cycle. Below are two charts comparing the number of votes for Democratic Presidential candidates in April’s Primary with votes for Democrats running for State Treasurer in PA.

Candidate	Votes	Percent
CLINTON, HILLARY	1,275,039	54.6%
OBAMA, BARACK	1,061,441	45.4%

Total votes for Obama and Clinton in Pennsylvania = 2,336,480

*Obama and Clinton were the only Democrats on the ballot in PA

Candidate	Votes	Percent
MCCORD, ROBERT	783,675	43.2%
CORDISCO, JOHN F.	472,027	26.0%
MANN, JENNIFER L.	441,745	24.3%
MORRISON-WESLEY, DENNIS	118,696	6.5%

Total Votes for Democrats running for PA State Treasurer 1,661,549

There was a 674,931 vote or 29% disparity between Democrats who voted for our party’s candidates for State Treasurer and our parties candidates for President in Pennsylvania. That means nearly 3 out of every 10 people who voted in the presidential primary, gave the State Treasurer a pass.

In Ohio, two 21st Century Democrats’ endorsed candidates also were victims of down-ballot drop off. In the 1st Congressional District, there were a total of  115, 387 votes for Obama , Edwards and Clinton. Steve Dreihaus ran an uncontested and only got 60,454 votes, a 57,840 vote difference.  Nearly 1 out of every two voters who cast a vote for the Democratic nominee decided to not cast a vote for their Congressman.

In the 15th CD, Mary Jo Kilroy was also uncontested and received 85,840 votes. All the Presidential Candidates received 91,233 votes in total. That’s a 5, 393 vote drop off. Given Mary Jo’s 2006 election results, she can’t afford to have that sort of drop off.

Out in Oregon,  remember those Obama crowds? All that excitement generated 641, 499 total votes in the Democratic Presidential Primary. One would think that the heated primary for the Democratic Senatorial nominee would have little drop off. In spite of intense competition between two well funded campaigns less people voted for our Senatorial candidates than voted for our Presidential Candidates. In fact there was an almost 14% or 91,523 vote difference between total votes for Democratic Presidential Nominees and total votes for Democratic Senatorial Candidates in Oregon. How will Merkley beat Smith if he has to get 115% of Obama’s take in Oregon?

Why am I telling you this? Because at 21st Century Democrats, we believe that in order to have a true progressive revolution in America we’ll need a bottom up, not a top down, approach to elections and campaigns. We have been training and placing field organizers for two decades now. We know that many down-ballot races cannot depend on Obama’s team. They have a big enough task ahead.

21st Century Democrats is endorsing over fifty down-ballot candidates all over the country. For example Jim Roth is running for Corporate Commissioner in Oklahoma, and Andy Meisner is running for Oakland County Treasurer in Michigan. These candidates need resources to get field organizers hitting the doors, and cannot rely on Barack Obama’s field team to do it for them. The nation will not be changed without your help. We already have organizers in critical races across the country, but we need you to partner with us to get down-ballot candidates like Darcy Burner (WA-08), Dan Maffei (NY-25), Jim Himes (CT-4), Judy Baker (MO -9) and other progressives near you elected.

——-

Big thanks to Corey Goldiner, 21st Century Fellow, for doing most of the legwork and tracking down all these statistics.

Continuing through the alphabet

Ohio has 18 representatives: 11 R, 7 D

Filing deadline was Jan 4, primary was March 4

Oklahoma has 5 representatives: 4 R and 1 D

Filing deadline is June 4, primary is July 29

District: OH-01

Location Southwestern OH, bordering IN and KY, including Cincinnati

Representative Steve Chabot (R)

First elected  1994

2006 margin 52-48

2004 margin 60-40

Bush margin 2004 51-49

Notes on opponents In 2004, his opponent raised little; in 2006, John Cranley raised $2 million to Chabot’s $3 million

Current opponents   Steven Dreihaus . Thru 2/13, Chabot has raised $1.1 million and Dreihaus $516K; COH $1million and $430K

Demographics 27th fewest Latinos (1.1%)

Assessment Vulnerable. Superribbie ranks it the 19th most vulnerable Republican seat; Dreihaus is minority Whip in the State House.

District: OH-02

Location Central part of southern OH, bordering KY

Representative Jean Schmidt (R)

First elected 2005

2006 margin 50-49

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 64-36

Notes on opponents In 2006, Victoria Wulsin raised $1 million to Schmidt’s $2 million

Current opponents Victoria Wulsin has raised $546K, to Schmidt’s $414K; COH is $170K and $102K, respectively.

Demographics 22nd fewest Latinos (1.0%), 61st most Republican

Assessment Highly vulnerable. On DCCC list , Superribbie ranks it 16th most vulnerable Republican seat. How often is a challenger ahead of an incumbent in fundraising?  OTOH, a recent poll showed Schmidt well ahead.

District: OH-03

Location Southwestern OH, including Dayton

Representative Mike Turner (R)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 59-41

2004 margin 62-38

Bush margin 2004 54-45

Notes on opponents each raised about $400K to $500K, Turner about $1 million each time

Current opponents Jane Mitakides has raised $85K to Turner’s $741K; COH is $75K and $483K.

Demographics  26th fewest Latinos (1.1%)

Assessment Slightly vulnerable Superribbie ranks it 74th most vulnerable Republican seat.

District: OH-04

Location Slightly north and west of central OH

Representative Jim Jordan (R)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 60-40

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 65-34

Notes on opponents In 2006, this was an open seat and Rick Seferd raised $161K to Jordan’s $1.3 million

Current opponents Mike Carroll .  No funding data.

Demographics 33rd fewest Latinos (1.2%), 50th most Republican

Assessment Long shot

District: OH-05

Location Northwestern OH, bordering MI and IN

Representative Bob Latta (R)

First elected  Appointed

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 61-39

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents George Mays . No funding data

Demographics 41st most rural (51.1%), 36th fewest Blacks (1.1%)

Assessment Long shot

District: OH-06

Location Southeastern OH, a long narrow strip along the whole of the border with WV

Representative Charlie Wilson (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 62-38

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 51-49

Notes on opponents In 2006, this was an open seat, and Wilson spent $1.8 million, his opponent Chuck Blasdell spent $1 million

Current opponents Rich Stobbs, who has an inactive website and has raised no money.

Demographics 47th most rural (50.0%),  62nd poorest (median income = $33K), 11th most White (95.2%), 11th fewest Latinos (0.8%)

Assessment Safe. Although Superribbie ranks it 41st most vulnerable Democratic seat, Stobbs does not appear to be actively running.

District: OH-07

Location Just south of central OH

Representative  David Hobson (R) retiring

First elected  1990

2006 margin 61-39

2004 margin 65-35

Bush margin 2004 57-43

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents Sharon Neuhardt has raised $70K; the Republican (Austria) has raised $400K

Demographics 26th fewest Latinos (1.1%)

Assessment Slightly vulnerable. Superribbie ranks it 47th most vulnerable Republican seat

District: OH-08

Location Central part of western OH, bordering IN.

Representative John Boehner (R)

First elected  1990

2006 margin 64-36

2004 margin 69-31

Bush margin 2004 64-35

Notes on opponents Neither raised money

Current opponents Nick von Stein . No funding info.

Demographics 73rd most Whites (91.8%), 42nd fewest Latinos (1.3%), 74th most Republican

Assessment Long shot.

District: OH-09

Location Northern OH, bordering Lake Erie, including Toledo

Representative  Marcy Kaptur (D)

First elected  1982

2006 margin 74-36

2004 margin 68-32

Bush margin 2004 42-58

Notes on opponents In 2004, Larry Kaczala raised $255K to Kaptur’s $615K

Current opponents Bradley Leavitt. No funding info.

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: OH-10

Location Northern OH, bordering Lake Erie, including part of Cleveland

Representative Dennis Kucinich (D)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 66-34

2004 margin 60-34

Bush margin 2004 41-58

Notes on opponents In 2004, Edward Herman raised $300K to Kucinich’s $400K.  The 2006 opponent raised little

Current opponents  Jim Trakas has raised very little, Kucinich has over $300K COH.

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: OH-11

Location Cleveland and eastern suburbs

Representative Stephanie Tubbs Jones (D)

First elected  1998

2006 margin 83-17

2004 margin Unopposed

Bush margin 2004 18-81

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents  Thomas Pekarek, no funding info

Demographics 52nd lowest income (median = $32K), 63rd fewest Whites (38.8%), 18th most Blacks (55.5%), 18th most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: OH-12

Location Central OH, including part of Columbus

Representative Pat Tiberi (R)

First elected  2000

2006 margin 57-43

2004 margin 62-38

Bush margin 2004 51-49

Notes on opponents In 2006, Bob Shamanasky raised $1.6 million to Tiberi’s $3 million

Current opponents David Robinson has raised about $10K to Tiberi’s $1 million

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Long shot

District: OH-13

Location Northern OH, including Akron

Representative Betty Sutton (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 61-39

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 44-56

Notes on opponents Craig Foltin raised $600K to Sutton’s $1.3 million

Current opponents David Potter. No funding info.

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: OH-14

Location Northeastern corner of OH, bordering PA and Lake Erie

Representative Steven LaTourette (R)

First elected  1994

2006 margin 58-39

2004 margin 63-37

Bush margin 2004 53-47

Notes on opponents In 2006, Lewis Katz raised $200K to LaTourette’s $1.4 million.  In 2004, Capri Cafaro raised $2 million to LaTourrette’s $2.4 million

Current opponents William O’Neill has raised $200K ($94K COH) to LaTourrette’s $700K ($570K COH)

Demographics 30th fewest in poverty (5.7%), 30th most Whites (93.8%), 42nd fewest Latinos (1.3%),

Assessment Slightly vulnerable. On DCCC list , Superribbie ranks it 59th most vulnerable Republican seat

District: OH-15

Location Central OH, including Columbus

Representative Deborah Pryce retiring (R)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 1,155 votes out of 220,000

2004 margin 60-40

Bush margin 2004 2,000 votes of 300,000

Notes on opponents In 2006, Mary Jo Kilroy raised $2.7 million to Pryce’s $4.7 million

Current opponents   Mary Jo Kilroy who came so close in 2006, has raised $917K ($713K COH); the Republican, Steve Stivers – $505K raised and $404 COH

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Highly vulnerable. On DCCC list . Superribbie ranks it 5th most vulnerable Republican seat

District: OH-16

Location North and east of central OH

Representative Ralph Regula (R) retiring

First elected  1972

2006 margin 58-42

2004 margin 67=33

Bush margin 2004 54-46

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents Democrat John Boccieri will run against Republican Kirk Schuring.  Boccieri has raised $467K ($330K COH0; Schuring raised $327K ($84K COH).

Demographics 17th fewest Latinos (0.9%)

Assessment Vulnerable On DCCC list , Superribbie ranks it 18th most vulerable Republican seat; plus Boccieri has a big lead in COH, and is raising more money

District: OH-17

Location  Northeastern OH, bordering PA, including Youngstown

Representative Tim Ryan (D)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 80-20

2004 margin 77-23

Bush margin 2004 33-67

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents Duane Grassell. No funding info.

Demographics 67th fewest Latinos (1.6%)

Assessment Safe

District: OH-18

Location South and east of central OH

Representative Zack Space (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 62-38

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 57-43

Notes on opponents Joy Padgett raised $850K to Space’s $1.6 million

Current opponents Fred Dailey has raised $111K ($48K COH and $30K in debt).  Space has raised $1.2 million ($811K COH, $11K debt)

Demographics 24th most rural (56.7%), 7th most White (95.9%), tied for least Latinos (0.6%)

Assessment  Slightly vulnerable. It’s on DCCC list , Superribbie ranks it 28th most vulnerable Democratic seat. But Space has a huge fundraising edge, and won easily in 2006

District: OK-01

Location Shaped like a key standing on end, centered on Tulsa in northeast OK, a tiny bit of border with KS

Representative John Sullivan (R)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 64-31

2004 margin 60-38

Bush margin 2004 65-35

Notes on opponents In 2004, Doug Dodd raised $300K to Sullivan’s $1 million.  In 2006, Alan Gentges raised little

Current opponents

Demographics 61st most Republican

Assessment

District: OK-02

Location Eastern OK, bordering MO and AR

Representative Dan Boren (D)

First elected  2004

2006 margin 73-27

2004 margin 66-34

Bush margin 2004 59-41

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents None

Demographics 9th most rural (64.4%), 12th lowest income (median = $28K), 11th most nonWhite, nonBlack, NonLatino (mostly 16.8% American Indian)

Assessment Safe.  Boren is rather conservative, but it’s a safe Democratic seat in a Republican district and a Republican state

District: OK-03

Location The panhandle of OK, and east to Oklahoma City suburbs, borders TX, NM, CO, and KS

Representative Frank Lucas (R)

First elected  1994

2006 margin 67-33

2004 margin 82-18 (vs. minor party)

Bush margin 2004 72-28

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents None

Demographics 54th most rural (49.3%), 53rd lowest income (median = $32K), 18th most Republican

Assessment Long shot

District: OK-04

Location Southwestern OK, bordering TX, including suburbs of Oklahoma City

Representative Tom Cole (R)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 65-35

2004 margin 78-22 (against a minor party)

Bush margin 2004 67-33

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents None

Demographics 61st most Republican

Assessment Long shot

District: OK-05

Location Oklahoma City and some points southeast of there

Representative Mary Fallin (R)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 60-37

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 64-36

Notes on opponents David Hunter raised $400K to Fallon’s $1.6 million, running for this open seat in 2006

Current opponents Bert Smith . No funding info.  Fallon has about $350K COH

Demographics 78th lowest income (median = $34K), 74th most Republican

Assessment Long shot

I am all for running everywhere, and the 50 state strategy.

But neither we nor the Republicans are running everywhere (at least not yet!) In this series, I will look at where we are running and not running; and where the Republicans are running and not running (I am not going to look in detail at where Republicans are not running, as I have no desire to help Republicans, however modestly)

This diary is partly inspired by the great work done by BENAWU, and informed by the great Race Tracker Wiki (links throughout).

crossposted to dailyKos

The next two states to have filing deadlines are OH and TX. Today, I am doing OH.  I will do TX soon, more to follow (and I will go back and do the states that already passed their filing deadlines).

Ohio has 18 Congressional House districts. 7 held by Democrats:

The numbers after each are a) Cook PVI and b) A rating of the district based on a model I created details here – basically a logistic model based on a lot of demographics; the number is the predicted probability of being Republican



OH-06 - D+0,  .72.  No confirmed challenger.

OH-09 - D+9,  .44.  No confirmed challenger.

OH-10 - D+6,  .42.  Confirmed challenger (and primary opponents to

    Kucinich)

OH-11 - D+33, .07.  No confirmed challenger.

OH-13 - D+6,  .45.  No confirmed challenger.

OH-17 - D+14, .44.  No confirmed challenger.

OH-18 - R+6,  .77.  Confirmed challenger.

so, there are only 2 races where there is a Republican challenger; they have a good chance in one of them (OH-18).

and there are 11 seats held by Republicans

There are confirmed challengers in 8 of those 11 districts:

OH-01 – R+1,   .25. Chabot was first elected in 1994.  in 2006, he won 52-48, outspending Cranley ($3 million to $2 million).  This time, Dreihaus is running.  He’s now in the state house, and got 67% in his last election.  

OH-02 – R+13,  .69. If the incumbent here was not Jean Schmidt, then this probably wouldn’t be close.  But it is.  In 2006, she beat Wulsin by 2,500 votes out of 238,000 cast.  Wulsin is running again.  In 2005, Schmidt beat Paul Hackett 52-48, while a year earlier, Bush beat Kerry by 64-36.

OH-03 – R+3,   .45.  Turner, first elected in 2002, has not been in a close contest.  He’s outspent his opponents, but they’ve been serious opponents.  In 2006, Crema raised $400,000 but lost, 59-41.  In 2004, Mitakides raised $565,000 and lost 62-38 (Turner got 67,000 more votes than Bush did).  

– R+6,   .63.  Hobson, who has held this seat since 1990, is retiring. There are a number of Democratic and Republican candidates.  Anyone with local info., please chime in.

OH-12 – R+0.7, .40. Tiberi, first elected in 2002, has won easily, even, as in 2006, when his opponent was fairly well funded.

OH-14 – R+2,   .74.  LaTourette, first elected in 1994, has won easily, whether or not his opponent was funded.  In 2004, for instance, LaTourrette got nearly 2/3 of the vote against Cafaro, even though Cafaro spent almost $2 million.  LaTourrette, one of the most moderate Republicans, got 60,000 votes more than Bush. This dailyKos comment indicates that the current candidate (O’Neill) may do better.

OH-15 – R+1,   .44.  The rep here (Pryce) is retiring.  In 2006, this was a very close race (Pryce beat Kilroy by 1,100 votes out of 220,000) and hugely expensive (Pryce spent nearly $5 million, Kilroy nearly $3 million).  Now, Kilroy is running again, this time, without the handicap of being against an incumbent.  

OH-16 – R+4,   .64.  Regula, first elected in 1972, is retiring.  He won easily, but now, it’s a new ballgame; in 2004, Regula got 60,000 votes more than Bush.

And an unconfirmed challenger in 1 district:

OH-16 – R+10,  .81.  This seat was left vacant by the death of Gillmor.  It was filled by Latta, who beat Weirauch 57-43 in a special election.   Weirauch might run again see this comment .  

That leaves two districts with no confirmed or unconfirmed candidate

And here they are:

OH-04 – R+14, .72.  This is a solidly Republican seat, but Jordan is a freshman.  In 2006, he won 60-40 over Siferd, but outspent Siferd by over a million.  A candidate here might make the Republicans waste money.

OH-08 – R+12, .63.  Boehner, who has been the rep. here since 1990, has won easily against little opposition.  But see this comment

Summary

Current: 7 D, 11 R

Outlook: 6 of 7 D are safe. 5 of 11 R look safe.

Best guess: We pick up 3 seats.