Tag: 2008 Elections

In the 2006 House Races, the Democratic Party picked up a total of 31 seats (incl. VT-AL). Unfortunately we missed picking up seats in 19 very close contests, by less than 10,000 votes in each District. We ended up short by 88,577 votes or an average of 4,662 votes per District. By contrast our candidates won 16 seats in districts by less than 10,000 votes. We captured/held those 16 seats by a total of 82,480 votes for an average of 5,155 votes per District.

Some have asserted that if the DCCC had reacted to some of these races and provided necessary funding, we could have picked up more seats. Others have claimed that the DCCC did the best it could with the resources on hand and the fact that the RNCC had to pour money & resources into normally safe GOP Districts, benefited us nationwide.

I’ll let y’all come to your own conclusions about that, because the purpose of this Diary is more from a Statistical/Tactical Perspective for 2008 regarding the lessons we’ve learned from the 2006 Midterms.

Caveat: Races won by over 10,000 votes (either side) are not included in the Parameters of this Study, though any number of those could be in play in ’08, plus many other seats may be on the horizon that were not in-play in 2006. On the same note, many of these races shown below may not be close for us in ’08, but are sure to get some attention.

More below the fold. Enjoy!

1. CT-02

Courtney-D 121,248 50.002%
Simmons-R 121,165 49.998%
Margin=  +83 D

2. NC-08
Hayes-R 60,926 50.01%
Kissell-D 60,597 49.99%
Margin = +329 R

3. FL-13

Buchanan-R 119,309 50.008%
Jennings-D 118,940 49.992%
Margin = +369 R

4. NM-01

Wilson-R 105,986 50.02%
Madrid-D 105,125 49.98%
Margin = +861 R

5. GA-12

Barrow-D 71,651 50.3%
Burns-R 70,787 49.7%
Margin = +864 D

6. WY-AL

Cubin-R 93,336 48.3%
Trauner-D 92,324 47.8%.
Rankin-Lbt  7,481 3.9%
Margin = +1,012 R

7. OH-15

Pryce-R 110,714 50.2%
Kilroy-D 109,659 49.8%
Margin = +1,055 R

8. PA-08

Murphy-D 125,667 50.3%
Fitzpatrick-R 124,146 49.7%
Margin = +1,521 D

9. GA-08

Marshall-D 80,660 50.55%
Collins-R 78,908 49.45%
Margin = +1,752 D

10. OH-02

Schmidt-R 120,112 50.45%
Wulsin-D 117,595 49.39%
Noy-NP  298 0.13
Condit-NP  76 0.03
Margin = +2,517 R

11. NJ-07

Ferguson-R 98,399 49.43%
Stender-D 95,454 47.95%
Abrams-WTD  3,176 1.6%
Young-Lbt 2,046 1.02%
Margin = +2,945 R

12. PA-06

Gerlach-R 118,807 51.9%
Murphy-D 115,806 48.1%
Margin = +3,001 R

13. NY-25

Walsh-R-C 110,525 50.8%
Maffei-D 107,108 49.2%
Margin = +3,417 R

14. NV-03

Porter-R 102,232 48.5%
Hafen-D 98,261 46.6%
Silvestri-Lbt 5,157 2.4%
Hansen-I 5,329 2.5%
Margin = +3,971 R

15. FL-16

Mahoney-D 115,832 49.55%
Foley (Negron)-R 111,415 47.66%
Ross-NPA  6,526 2.8%
Margin = +4,417 D

16. NY-19

Hall-D-WFP 100,119 51.2%
Kelly-R-C 95,359 48.8%
Margin = +4,760 D

17. IL-06

18. Roskam-R 91,382 51.35%
Duckworth-D 86,572 48.65%
Margin = +4,810 R

18. VA-02

Drake-R 88,777 51.27%
Kellam-D 83,901 48.73%
Margin = +4,876 R

19. NH-01

Shea-Porter-D 100,691 51.3%
Bradley-R 95,527 48.7%
Margin = +5,164 D

20. KY-03

Yarmuth-D 122,489 50.62%
Northrup-R 116,568 48.18%
Mancini-Lbt 2,134 0.9%
Parker-I 774 0.3%
Margin = +5,921 D

21. WI-08

Kagen-D 141,570 50.95%
Gard-R 135,622 49.05%
Margin = +5,948 D

22. IA-02
  Loesback-D 107,683 51.52%
Leach-R 101,701 48.48%
Margin = +5,982 D

23.CO-04

Musgrave-R 109,732 45.61%%
Paccione-D 103,748 43.12%
Eidness-Lbt 27,133  11.28%
Margin = +5,984 R

24. NY-29

Kuhl-R-C 106,077 51.46%
Massa-D-WFP 100,044 48.54%
Margin = +6,033 R

25. CT-04

Shays-R 106,510 50.96%
Farrell- 99,45 47.58%
Maymin-Lbt  3,058 0.15%
Margin:  + 7,060 R

26. WA-08

Reichert-R 129,362 51.46%
Burner-D 122,021 48.54%
Margin = +7,341 R

27. KS-02

  Boyda-D 114,139 50.6%
Ryun-R 106,329 47.1%
Tucker-F 5,094  2.2%
Margin = +7,810 D

28. AZ-05

Mitchell-D 101.838 50.4%
Hayworth-R 93,815  46.4%
Severin-I 6,357  3.1%
Margin = +8, 023 D

29. FL-22

Klein-D 108,688 50.9%
Shaw-R 100,663 47.1%
Evangelista-I  4,254  2.0%
Margin = +8,025 D

30. NY-26

Reynolds-R-C 109,257 51.98%
Davis-D-WFP 100,914 48.02%
Margin = +8,343 R

31. CA-04

Doolittle-R 135,818 49.1%
Brown-D 126,999 45.9%
Warren-Lbt 14,076  11.28%
Margin = +8,819 R

32. OH-01

Chabot-R 105,680 52.25%
Cranley-D 96,584 47.75%
Margin = +9,096 R

33. PA-04

Altmire-D 124,674 51.9%
Hart-R 115,394  48.1%
Margin = 9,280 D

34. MI-07

. Walberg-R 122,348 49.93%
Renier-D 112,665 45.98%
Hutchinson-Lbt 3,788 1.55%
Horn-UST  3,611 1.47%
Shwarz-R(WI)  2,614 1.07
Margin =+ 9,683 R

35. IN-09

Hill-D 110,454 50.02%
Sodrel-R 100,469 45.48%
Schansberg-Lbt 9,893 4.5%
Margin = +9,985 D

These Election Results are based on Certified Election Returns from the individual States’ Secretary of State/Board of Elections Sites, or in the case of Illinos, the two County sites, Cook & DuPage, as the State site is pitiful.(The Commonwealth of Virginia site gets an A++.) Should anyone come up with varying results, please feel free to post them and the source info, so that it can be verified.

Percentage calculations are rounded and may not add up to 100.000%. If anyone would like the links to SOS BOE sites for each/any race, please ask and I will provide in a Comment reply.

Originally posted at Daily Kos on 12/18/06. Some typos regarding vote totals and percentages have been since corrected there and here. Thanks for any input.

In a front page story in Sunday’s Clarion Ledger incumbent U.S. Sen. Thad Cochran indicated he is undecided on whether he will run for another term in 2008. In an interview with the state’s largest newspaper Cochran, who is outgoing Chairman of the Appropriations Committee, indicated disappointment in being able to get only 2 bills passed in the current session because Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist of Tennessee was “slow to move them to the Senate floor”. Cochran described the GOP decision to shift the burden of approving the budget to Democrats in January as “baseless” and indicated that he has a good working relationship with the incoming Appropriations Chairman Sen. Robert C. Byrd.

http://bluesunbelt.c…

It’s official!  Gordon Smith (R-OR) planning to run for reelection as a panderer and opportunist.

Editor & Publisher

In a major speech in Congress on Thursday night, Sen. Gordon Smith called the current U.S. war effort “absurd,” perhaps even “criminal” and called for rapid pullouts.  He added that he would have never voted for the conflict if he had reason to believe the intelligence the president gave the American people was inaccurate.

Citing the hundreds of billions of dollars spent and 2900 Americans deaths — and saying he needed to “speak from the heart” — Smith said, “I for one am at the end of my rope when it comes to supporting a policy that has our soldiers patrolling the same streets in the same way being blown up by the same bombs day after day. That is absurd. It may even be criminal. So either we clear and hold and build or let’s go home.”

Gordon Smith is only now at the end of his rope?  Has he not been paying attention for the last three years?  How is it possible that anyone with so much as a subscription to the Des Moines Register can only just now realize that U.S. intelligence was accurate?  Is there something particularly magical about the number 2,899 – the number of casualties Smith cites as provoking his change of heart – that 1,000 or 2,000 doesn’t really move the soul?  $100 Billion, $200 Billion: all acceptable appropriations for a failed policy, but now that we’ve hit $290 Billion, Smith has to speak out. 

How absolutely convenient that Smith has a change of heart just when it’s time to run again, exactly when the Iraq Study Group and Bob Gates announcement that we’re not winning has given him cover to do so.  How convenient that he can now point to another example of principled moderation to appeal to the independent voters of Oregon.

Read Smith’s whole speech in the Congressional Record.  It’s like discovering a whole new senator we never knew we had.

(I couldn’t agree more. Smith is one of the few GOPer senators to represent a blue state, and he has got to be a prime target. And if you want a good example of how to defeat a conservative with a faux-moderate record, just take a look at how my man Paul Hodes demolished Charlie Bass. – promoted by DavidNYC)

Oregon has, encouragingly, been trending blue for two decades.  20 years ago, the state had a Republican governor, two Republican senators, and a congressional delegation split 2R-3D.

Since then, we’ve seen 20 years of Democratic governors, a Democratic Senator, no Republican has been elected to state office since an election for Labor Commissioner in 1994, and the Democrats just this month took control of both chambers of the statehouse.  The only Republican congressman left is in the Eastern half of the state, which isn’t going to elect a Democrat anyway.  But why, then, can’t Oregon seem to shake off our last Republican holdout, Senator Gordon Smith?

Gordon Smith was first elected in 1996, and has spent the last ten years portraying himself in the mold of moderate Republicans who can actually get elected statewide here.  Problem: There are no more Republicans like that in Oregon.  Gordon Smith replaced the last of ’em!  (Mark Hatfield)  Since then, the Oregon Republican Party has been increasingly dominated by right wing anti-tax, anti-choice zealots who play well to their primary base, but can’t win statewide.  But I digress.

Smith wants, even needs, to be seen like a moderate, sensible Republican in order to get elected, and every now and then drops a position so the mainstream press in Oregon can wax poetic about their dying breed of moderate Republican.  Holding out on a budget bill because of excessive Medicaid cuts (although he ended up voting for it), adding Gays and Lesbians to the Hate Crimes Statute (although voting for the Federal Marriage Ammendment), Smith is a die hard social conservative with a knack for knowing just how much he needs to feint to the left in order to preserve the moderate image.

My point is this: the electorate in Oregon wants to believe that moderates of both parties can exist.  After the Hatfields and McCalls and even Packwoods of a generation ago, there is a deep seated desire for pragmatic, bipartisan leadership.  Gordon Smith looks like he fits this model, and unless the people of Oregon can be shown that he is like every other social conservative they’ve spent 20 years rejecting, he will continue to be re-elected.  The only way this is going to happen is with a coordinated, effective campaign by the blogosphere and activist class to show who Smith really is and that campaign needs to start today.  Oregon is still a blue state, Gordon Smith is not wildly popular and he can be made to be vulnerable, but his vulnerability will only come about if we make it. 

(I just like this diary. – promoted by DavidNYC)

The November approval numbers are out from SurveyUSA. Let’s see how the class of 2008 is faring.

How unpopular is Frank Lautenberg this month? All numbers represent net spproval (approve minus disapprove).

100. DeWine -25%
99. Talent -22%
98. Santorum -21%
97. Burns -15%
96. Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ) -5%

Picture a huge cliff. Now picture Santorum, Talent, Burns, and Dewine being thrown off of it by angry voters. Lautenberg is hanging on the edge of that cliff, but at least he’s a long way from those other four guys… so far. And the vibe of the ’06 election seems to be helping – he’s climbed 7 points since last month. It’s a good start, Frank, but you’re going to have to build it up from there.

95. Mel Martinez -3%

OK, I feel better now. Kudos to the brilliance of the GOP for making their least popular senator the face of their party. Wow.

94. Bunning -3%
93. Kyl -2%

OK, you can get re-elected at -2%. There hope for you, Frank.

92. John Kerry (D-MA) -2%

Presidential bid’s not looking good, John. At this rate, you might not even win the presidential primary in your own state. The infamous gaffe, repeated ad naseum by the media just like the Dean Scream, drops Kerry a whopping 16%. Ouch. No matter what happens, his seat will stay in Democratic hands, though. It’s Massachusetts.

91. Dayton -1%
90. Menendez 0%

Some more hope for Frank – a little proof that New Jerseys are willing to hold their nose and vote for a Democrat they don’t much like. While Dewine and Talent nosedived 8% and 17% respectively this month, Menendez soars 13% and gets re-elected.

89. Wayne Allard (R-CO) 1%

Allard gains 5% this month despite the national trends.

88. Burr 2%
87. Sarbanes 2%
86. John Sununu (R-NH) 3%

Sununu dives 8% from last month. The mood in NH has gotten quite frosty to the GOP.

85. Frist 3%
84. John Cornyn (R-TX) 3%

Cornyn gains 6% this month. Still makes a good target.

83. Allen 4%
82. Voinovich 4%
81. Norm Coleman (R-MN) 5%

Coleman stays the same as he was last month, which is 3% better than recently re-elected governor Pawlenty. But remember, there’s nobody out campaigning against him yet, so this is still a good position for us to start from.

80. James Inhofe (R-OK) 5%
79. Chafee 6%

Inhofe gains 14% this month, but he’s not out of the woods yet as Chafee’s ranking shows. Chafee gains 5% himself, possibly for his post-election declaration that he wasn’t sure if he was a Republican anymore.

To be updated tomorrow. Wow, I got front-paged! I better finish this now…

78. Bond 8%
77. Reid 9%
76. Lieberman 9%
75. Gregg 11%
74. Specter 11%
73. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) 12%
72. Elizabeth Dole (R-NC) 12%

Lieberman gains 4% and is re-elected, so we probably want to see our targets move below 9% net approval. Landrieu is our lowest-rated red-stater, so it’s good to see her above the Chafee line; with all the positive Dem mojo, however, her gain of merely 2% this month is underwhelming. A rough campaign could easily bring her down into the danger zone, so Schumer will need to invest here. Dole is our next target, and you can see we’ll need a good challenger (or some Macaca-like gaffes, or retirement) to bring her down in reddish NC. Momentum is on our side at the moment – she falls 8% from last month, and is down from a high of +30% in July.

71. Coburn 12%
70. Murkowski 13%
69. Tom Harkin (D-IA) 13%
68. Richard Durbin (D-IL) 15%

A presidential election year in Iowa – expect Harkin to get a strong challenger who declares early, because every GOP wannabe-prez will be helping him raise money. Harkin gains 6% this month – that’s a good thing. Durbin’s pretty safe in blue Illinois but gains only 1% this month as Dems fail to pick off Mark Kirk or Hyde’s open seat in the House.

67. DeMint 15%
66. Pat Roberts (R-KS) 15%
65. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) 15%

Roberts and McConnell are basically in pre-Macaca George Allen territory. In order to pick them off, we’d need two out of three factors: A strong candidate (Sebelius, Chandler), a memorable gaffe or scandal, and/or retirement. Before we get too optimistic, remember that the Tennesee race had all these three factors (Frist retires and is clouded by scandal, Corker had the 911 call fiasco and his abortion flip-flop, and Ford, a sitting congressman, ran a very strong campaign) and we still lost. Roberts gains 10% this month (ouch) and McConnell gains 3.

64. Isakson 15%
63. Brownback 16%
62. Saxby Chambliss (R-GA) 16%
61. Gordon Smith (R-OR) 17%
60. Russ Feingold 17%
59. Lamar Alexander (R-TN) 17%

Beating Chambliss would feel pretty damn good, and his numbers aren’t unreachable. On the downside, he gained 9% this month – we need momentum going the other direction. Smith gains 5%, another trend we need to reverse – Oregon ain’t as blue as Rhode Island. Alexander gains 13%, probably on the vibes of the GOP noise machine that pushed a turd like Corker into Frist’s open seat. When you consider how much lower Frist’s numbers are, this does not look like a first or even second tier opportunity.

58. Akaka 17%
57. Murray 18%
56. Lincoln 18%
55. Carl Levin (D-MI) 18%
54. Mark Pryor (D-AR) 19%

Stabenow’s re-election brings positive vibes in Michigan, as Levin gains 12%. This seat’s safe unless he retires. Too bad Beebe doesn’t seem to have done the same for Pryor, who actually drops 6% this month. He’s still in pretty safe territory for Arkansas, however, which is looking reddish in presidential elections but bluish for everything else.

53. Boxer 20%
52. Bill Nelson 20%
51. Stabenow 20%
50. Dodd 20%
49. Salazar 21%
48. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) 22%

Graham gains 12% this month. Unless the Club For Growth or some ultrareligious 3rd party candidate intervenes in the primary, this seat stays red.

OK, I’ll finish the rest when I get home tonight. Thanks for front-paging me, David!Stupid internet connection problems. Here goes.

47. Ensign 22%
46. Mikulski 23%
45. Hutchinson 24%
44. Feinstein 25%
43. Chuck Hagel (R-NE) 25%
42. Thune 25%
41. Jeff Sessions (R-AL) 25%

Hagel drops 4%, but it doesn’t matter. He’s sharp, polished, willing to be a maverick, politically savvy, and besides which, he owns the voting machines. And it’s Nebraska. All we can do is hope he runs for president and vacates his seat. Sessions gains 7% this month. If you decide to run, Artur, good luck – you’ll need it.

40. Bennett 25%
39. Wyden 26%
38. Schumer 27%
37. McCain 27%

08′ hopeful McCain loses 2%, victorious DSCC chair Schumer gains 11%. Nice.

36. Cantwell 28%
35. Ted Stevens (R-AK) 28%
34. Larry Craig (R-ID) 29%

Incidentally, Cantwell jumped 23% in the past month. Now that’s a damn fine endgame. Stevens drops 3%, but his approval ratings aren’t like a truck you can dump on – it’s a series of tubes! No, it’s a series of numbers that never dip below 26%. Just retire, you old bastard! Stop teasing and do it – spend some time with your family before you hop on the metaphorical Bridge to Nowhere. Craig drops 6%, but seriously… Idaho. If we can’t defeat a guy like Bill Sali… Craig’d have to dropkick Santa Claus to lose this race.

33. Shelby – 29%
32. Jay Rockefeller (D-WV) – 29%
31. Joe Biden (D-DE) – 29%

Not even Shelley Moore Capito could beat Rockefeller without a good scandal, even though he drops 6% this month. No one will mount a credible campaign against Joe Biden – in Delaware, the only thing safer than a popular incumbent is a popular incumbent Democrat. He gains 10% this month on his son’s coattails, or maybe vice versa. Of course, there’s that whole presidential run to think about…

30. Hatch 30%
29. Kennedy 31%
28. Bayh 31%
27. John Warner (R-VA) 32%

OK, seriously, when’s the last time a very popular senator was beaten by a very popular governor? Why is everyone so excited about the prospect of Mark Warner running here? George Allen lost because he’s a dickhead, always has been, always will be. John Warner’s not going to make those kind of mistakes. He gains 1% this month, but seriously, whatever. Maybe he’ll retire, but I heard he won’t.

26. Crapo 32%
25. Jeffords 34%
24. Thad Cochran (R-MS) 36%

Cochran gains 3%, and hasn’t said anything about retiring yet. No sense in thinking about this now when Barbour will be up for re-election in ’07.

All right, I need to get to bed. I’ll finish tomorrow – dumb internet problems prevented me from finishing tonight. Let’s do this.

23. Vitter 38%
22. Grassley 38%
21. Kohl 39%
20. Mike Enzi (R-WY) 39%
19. Jack Reed (D-RI) 39%

Nothing to see here. Move along. Kohl shows us what happens to Senators with approval this high – they get re-elected without any trouble. Enzi gains 12%, Reed gains 1% (and pretty much never dips below 35%).

18. Lott 39%
17. Byrd 40%
16. Lugar 41%
15. Inouye 42%
14. Ben Nelson 42%
13. Carper 43%
12. Thomas 43%
11. Pete Domenici (R-NM) 43%
10. Tim Johnson (D-SD) 44%

Domenici gains 12% – if he runs, he wins, and he says he’s gonna run. Maybe he wants to be Senate President Pro Tem someday, if Stevens retires and the Democrats lose the Senate. Johnson gains 2% – why would anyone want to even try to seriously challenge this guy? I expect top tier challengers to stay away for now. Johnson’s numbers are stellar and stable.

9. Bingaman 44%
8. Leahy 46%
7. Obama 48%
6. Max Baucus (D-MT) – 49%

Believe it or not, Baucus might not be as safe as these numbers suggest. He gains a whopping 18% on the strength of Montana’s blue wave. Before that though, his numbers were more “great” than “incredible”. If support for Tester, Schweitzer, and the Democrats remains high, Baucus is safe. If our party takes a fall in Montana, however, Denny Rehberg or Marc Racicot might – *might* – make a race of this.

5. Clinton 50%
4. Susan Collins (R-ME) 50%
3. Conrad 54%
2. Dorgan 56%
1. Snowe 62%

Hilary gains 14% – NY luuurrrrvvves her now. That’s a lot of electoral votes in her pocket. Maybe we shouldn’t be working so hard to dis her, seeing as how in less than 2 years we’ll probably be trying to get her elected in the general. I’m not saying we should all support her right now or anything, just that we should stop acting like she’s the boogeyman that the right wants her to be.

So, Susan Collins… Look. Lincoln Chafee’s BEST number this season was 19% net approval. Susan Collins’ WORST number was 41% net approval. Tom Allen has a better chance of being struck by lightning than unseating Collins head-to-head. Here’s hoping she honors her term limit pledge or switches parties. She gains 2% this month.

OK, done at last. But expect a version with color-coded maps soon.

Drew Pritt, a Democrat who became the first openly gay candidate to run statewide in Arkansas, says a progressive Democrat challenging Pryor in 2008 would be the best thing to happen for Arkansas Democrats, and he said he might as well be the one to do it.

“Senator Pryor should know better,” said Pritt. “However, he has voted too often with George W. Bush and against the people. Now Senator Pryor says he wants to be bipartisan and work for progress. Senator Pryor needs to remember the Democratic Party is the party of progress and the people of Arkansas want a Senator who is progressive and partisan in that regards.”

Pritt says Pryor should follow more of the example his own father, as well as Senator Dale Bumpers, set while serving in the U.S. Senate. He says the results of the November 7th Election show that the Democratic Party returned to its roots of fighting for progressive causes and nominating progressive candidates.

“The voters all across this country are tired of chameleon politics,” said Pritt. “If you are a Democrat, then stand up, speak out, and fight for
values that made the Democratic Party strong in this country. We are the party of less government, because we fight for an individuals right to choose, not a government. We are the fiscally responsible party because we fight for pay as you go, not deficit spending. We are the party of patriotism, because any neighborhood bully can pick a fight, especially with a weaker opponent. The true statesmen are the ones who fight and secure the peace, but also work daily to maintain peace. We also are the party of Main Street, USA and we need a U.S. Senator who fights for Main Street, Arkansas.”

Pritt says he differs with Pryor’s record of voting on a number of issues. In particular, as a U.S. Senator, Pritt says his support of a woman’s right to choose will be unequivocal. He supports a phased withdraw from Iraq in a year and supports turning over the policing and beefing up of the country to the members of the Arab League. Also, he will be a huge proponent of improving and expanding Amtrak service across the country. Also, Pritt says he will not be any proponent of “working with” a Republican opposition that supports judicial nominees who are anti-choice, anti-working families, and anti-civil liberties.

He says he recognizes he faces a strong challenge with formidable odds in challenging Pryor. However, Pritt says he is a true Democrat and the voters will know without a doubt he will be a Democrat when voting in the Senate. He also says his previous experience in running for Lt. Governor will serve him well the second time around.

“This time I have to raise money to be competitive,” said Pritt. “The grassroots campaigning will help but the simple fact is I need to raise money to send a message and be successful.”

He also said he believes Governor Mike Huckabee will eventually end up running for the U.S. Senate in 2008 as the Republican nominee. Should
Pritt defeat Pryor in a major upset in the primary, Pritt says this is a general election matchup he’d relish.

“I helped lead the effort to defeat one of Mike Huckabee’s hair-brained schemes before with the Road Bond,” said Pritt. “I would love the chance
to face him one-on-one in a General Election matchup and compare the Democratic Party’s values and records with that of Governor Huckabee and the Arkansas Republican Party.”

  -0-

Cross-posted from MN Campaign Report – now with even more snarky wonkishness!

U.S. Senator Norm Coleman has made it clear that his vote is available to prevent deadlock in the Senate once Democrats take control in January.  The writing is on the wall – Coleman is vulnerable in 2008, representing a state that kicked out Republican officials up and down the ticket and didn’t give him 50% of the vote against a dead incumbent and a former VP thrown into the race at the last moment.  In light of these factors, Coleman has flip-flopped on his party – all too happy to go with the flow when the Republicans have a majority, his vote is available to the Democrats when it’s their turn in charge.

I’ve written before about some of the factors affecting this race before it begins – the 2008 Republican National Convention will be held in the Twin Cities, perhaps seeking to bolster Coleman’s vulnerable profile.  2002 was an up year for the Republican Party in general, and if the 2006 winds stay at the Democrats’ backs, 2008 promises to be a dangerous year indeed for Coleman.

Coleman has called the new Democratic majority an “opportunity” for him to extract gains for Minnesota.  An “opportunity” indeed.  Much like the “opportunity” that presented itself in the late 1990s to switch his party affiliation from Democrat to Republican for a gubernatorial run, and the “opportunity” to play the blame game with Michael Brown over the FEMA/Katrina debacle, Coleman’s career is full of opportunistic moves that betray a lack of conviction on important issues facing our nation today.

Having betrayed the DFL once before, and now betraying the Senate Republican caucus for political gain, Coleman’s latest move begs us to ask, “who’s expected to vote for you in 2008?”

It is nice to be the Majority again. One of the main reasons Democrats are back in the Majority is that they were able to put a lot more races into contention then were the Republicans.  It is vitally important that we keep this playing field imbalance, so that we can continue to be in and expand our Majority. It is my contention, that at least one quarter of House Republicans remain vulnerable today.  This statement is even truer if the Republicans were to nominate a true social conservative for President in 2008.  Democrats need to compete as if we were behind rather than ahead 15 seats. Being in the Majority makes everything easier for us, and everything harder for them. We also may see a large group of retirements, none of which should catch us off guard. Which is why the advantage must be pressed. It is also important to note that challengers help force legislators to vote with their constituencies on the hopefully popular Democratic legislation we put forward. Rather than having to water down our legislation for Bipartisanship, we can threaten defeat to those members who go against popular sentiment in their districts.  Here is my comprehensive list of seats Democrats could still gain as well, as the criteria by which the decisions were reached.  Also the currently uncalled races are omitted.

Under 55
All Republican members of Congress who received 55% or of their vote must be consider vulnerable they are listed by How Democratic the District voted in 2004 Presidential race.  Those that were not targeted this time receive a *
CT 4 Chris Shays
IL 10  Mark Kirk
PA 6 Jim Gerlach
NY 25 Jim Walsh
PA 15  Charlie Dent  *
VA 11 Tom Davis*
OH 1 Steve Chabot
MI 9  Joe Knollenberg *
NV 3  Jon Porter
PA 3 Phil English*
MI 11 Thaddeus McCotter *
NJ 7 Mike Ferguson
IL 6 Peter Roskam
AZ 1 Rick Renzi
MI 8 Mike Rogers
MI 7  Tim Walberg*
IL 11 Jerry Weller *
CA 50 Brain Bilbray
NY 26 Tom Reynolds
NY 29 Randy Kuhl
NJ 5 Scott Garrett  *
MN 6 Michelle Bachmann
NV 2 Dean Heller
VA 2 Thelma Drake
CO 4 Marilyn Musgrave
NE 2  Lee Terry *
CA 4 John Doolittle
KY 4 Geoff Davis
KY 2 Ron Lewis
IN 3 Mark Souder
ID 1 Bill Sali
NE 3 Adrian Smith

All Republicans from district Where John Kerry got 45% of the vote or More [listed by State excluding those were a Democrat held the Republican to less than 55%] Their Re-election Percent next to name
DE AL  Mike Castle  57%
FL 10  Bill Young  66%
FL 18  Ileana Ros-Lehtinen 62%
FL 24 Tom Feeney  58%
IA 4  Tom Latham  57%
MI 6  Fred Upton  61%
MN 3 Jim  Ramstad  65%
NJ 2 Frank LoBiondo  65 %
NJ 3 Jim Saxton 59%
NY 3 Peter King 56%
NY 13 Vito Fossella  57%
NY 23  Bob McHugh  63%
OH 3 Mike Turner 59%
OH 12 Pat Tiberi 58%
OH 14  Steve  LaTourette
OH 16 Ralph Regula 59%
PA 18  Tim Murphy 58%
WI 1  Paul Ryan 63%

Others, The members of Congress who are potentially vulnerable for other reasons:

AK AL  Don Young
MT AL  Dennis Rehberg
CO 6  Tom Tancredo
VA 10 Frank Wolf [ possible retirement] 
IL 14  Dennis Hastert[Possible retirement]
CA 26  David Dreier 

On Oct. 24th, 2006, Survey USA released the last batch of Senate approval ratings before the election. Who were the least popular senators facing re-election?

1. Santorum, -19% net approval
2. DeWine, -17% net approval
3. Burns, -16% net approval
4. Menendez, -13% net approval
5. Talent, -5% net approval
6. Chafee, -1% net approval
7. Kyl, 0% net approval
8. Allen, +1% net approval

Are approval ratings a good way of determining which incumbents are vulnerable? DUH, YES!

Below the flip, let’s see how the class of 2008 is looking. Hey, do you smell that? Smells like… Wayne Allard. Yeah, he’s a little over-ripe. Prepare for harvest!

Bottom of the class: Least popular senators, class of 2008:

1. Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ), -12% net approval
2. James Inhofe (R-OK), -9% net approval
3. Wayne Allard (R-CO), -4% net approval
4. John Cornyn (R-TX), -3% net approval

Paging Brad Henry, Mark Udall, and Chet Edwards… strong challengers wanted!

If we managed to pick off George Allen, we can defeat Inhofe and Cornyn with the right challenger. Yes, we can, even in Texas and Oklahoma.

Of course, fortunes can change… One year before that poll was taken, on Oct. 17, 2005, Lincoln Chafee had 19% net approval. Don’t let today’s approval rates discourage you too much, because things can change. Chafee’s steady, quiet fall from grace proves that. John Kyl had a net approval of +17% in August – a good, hard campaign can do a lot. George Allen had a +31% approval rating in December.

Now, for God’s sake, can we please stop saying that Lautenberg is safe? He’s overdue for his next retirement. If you want to see him re-elected, he’s going to have to save a few drowning puppies or something.

So, what about the rest of the class?

Lamar Alexander (R-TN), +3%
Norm Coleman (R-MN), +5%
Pat Roberts (R-KS), +6%
Carl Levin (D-MI), +6%
Saxby Chambliss (R-GA), +7%
Tom Harkin (D-IA), +7%
Mary Landrieu (D-LA), +10%
Lindsey Graham (R-SC), +10%
Gordon Smith (R-OR), +11%
John Sununu (R-NH), +11%
Mitch McConnell (R-KY), +12%
Richard Durbin (D-IL), +13%
John Kerry (D-MA), +14%
Jeff Sessions (R-AL), +19%
Joe Biden (D-DE), +19%
Elizabeth Dole (R-NC), +20%
Mark Pryor (D-AR), +24%
Michael Enzi (R-WY), +27%
Pete Domenici (R-NM), +31%
John Warner (R-VA), +31%
Max Baucus (D-MT), +31%
Ted Stevens (R-AK), +32%
Thad Cochran (R-MS), +33%
Larry Craig (R-ID), +33%
Jay Rockefeller (D-WV), +34%
Jack Reed (D-RI), +38%
Tim Johnson (D-SD), +46%
Susan Collins (R-ME), +48%

Conclusions:

1. I wouldn’t start worrying about Tim Johnson just yet. He’s almost as popular as Kent Conrad. Unless Gov. Mike Rounds challenges Johnson, this seat is safe. Against Rounds, I’d still give the edge to Johnson by a fair amount.

2. I wouldn’t get too excited about a Collins vs. Allen matchup. She’s almost as popular as Olympia Snowe. What’s Allen gonna do, knock her margin of victory down to 15%? Let’s hope she defects or retires.

3. Warner vs. Warner – competitive maybe, but not likely to be a win for Mark. Let’s hope John retires.

4. Max Baucus is safe. And I mean Kent Conrad safe.

5. Mark Pryor is safe. With Beebe as the new governor, it’s clear that Arkansas votes Dem on anything that isn’t Presidential.

6. John Sununu and Gordon Smith are good targets, if we can knock them down. They’re popular enough now, but a good candidate running a good campaign could knock either of them into vulnerability with some hard work.

7. Graham = Akaka. Those who don’t approve of his performance are probably not likely to vote for his opponent, either.

8. Landrieu is defensible. +10% is a good base to work from.

9. Harkin and Levin have a little work to do. Hopefully their majority status will raise their image some.

10. Saxby Chamblis and Pat Roberts ain’t untouchable! I’d rate them as Likely Republican now, but a great candidate could beat either. Yes, even in Kansas!

11. Lamar Alexander and Norm Coleman can be defeated.

12. Cornyn and Inhofe need conservative Dem challengers who will fight against these two incumbents. Do that, and we win.

13. Defense in New Jersey – maybe we should encourage Lautenberg to retire.

14. Allard’s going down!!!

(Bumped – promoted by DavidNYC)

I think you guys are gonna like this. Based on this suggestion from Terry312, I went ahead and created a brand new wiki at WetPaint.com called 2008 Race Tracker. The name is pretty self-explanatory: This wiki is designed to be a database for information on all 2008 House, Sen and Gov races. The main focus now is inputting candidate information, both incumbents and possible challengers.

The WetPaint system is incredibly easy to use – everything is WYSIWYG (What You See Is What You Get). If you’ve ever waded into Wikipedia and quailed at the thought of editing its quirky code, fear no more. Absolutely no code of any kind is necessary to create pages on WetPaint. The only thing you’ll need to do is create a user account, which takes 30 seconds. (I set this requirement to ward against vandalism.)

I’ve created easy-to-use templates for each type of race which I strongly encourage you to use. (Here’s an example of what a page ideally looks like.) The idea is to create a page for each race, so we have a lot of info to fill in. I figure our first objective should be to fill in all the incumbent data. Anyhow, check out the main wiki page for some more info and just jump right in! This should be fun.