Tag: Vermont

Alaska, Arizona & Vermont Primary Results Thread #4

4:46am: Hm, nope. We’re now at 77% reporting, and Miller’s up by 2,996. That’s it from me, though. Goodnight and good luck!

4:41am: Okay, I lied. With 72% now reporting (the final DoE update for the night), Miller now leads by over 3,100 votes.

4:28am: Final update, I swear! From the ADN:

The final results of the race won’t be known for a week. The Alaska Division of Elections said over 16,000 absentee ballots were requested and as of Monday night 7,600 had been returned. The first count of absentees will be next Tuesday and there will be subsequent counts as they trickle in on Sept. 3 and on Sept. 8.

4:24am: The Anchorage Daily News is tweeting that the Alaska DoE will stop counting votes at 12:30am local (six minutes from now) and will resume in the morning. Hope you have your morning coffee ready!

4:00am: One final update from the SSP Rocky Mountain Headquarters: We’re up to 66% of the vote reporting in Alaska, and Joe Miller’s lead has shot up to 2,881 votes (still 52-48). Who knows how long it’ll take to sort this one out. The last time we covered a close Alaska primary, we ended up liveblogging for 24 hours.

3:22am: We’re going to call it a night at SSP. Before we go, though, a quick Alaska update: 51% are reporting (not much change over the last hour), and Miller’s lead is 52-48, by 2,300 votes. Based on half-assed piecing-apart of the legislative districts (y’know, it seems like once every two years I really find myself wishing that Alaska had counties), though, that lead may be kind of fragile as more rural areas start to report more. But we’ll know more tomorrow.

3:20am: A few minutes ago the AP finally called AZ-03 for Ben Quayle, who wins with an overwhelming mandate of 23%. He’ll face Dem Jon Hulburd in November. Also just noticed the AP called, at some point, AZ-Sen D for Rodney Glassman, who wins with 35% and will face John McCain.

2:50am: And it looks like they’ve just shut it down for the night in Vermont, with no clear victor in the Dem gubernatorial primary. They’re still stalled at 232 of 260 precincts.

2:49am: 94% reporting in AZ-03, but still no call. It’s still Ben Quayle at 23, with 18 for Steve Moak, and 17 for Jim Waring and Vernon Parker each.

2:47am: Sean Parnell has been called the victor in the GOP gubernatorial primary. It wasn’t that overwhelming, though: also exactly 50% of the vote, with Bill Walker pulling in 34%.

2:45am: Almost exactly half reporting in Alaska, and the Miller lead continues to grow very slightly: he’s up to a 2,200 vote lead, good for a 52-48 margin. Whoever wins will face Scott McAdams; the Sitka mayor has been called by the AP as winner of the Dem primary (with 50% of the vote).

2:14am: With 36% reporting, it’s still 51-49 for Miller over Murkowski. The lead is up to 1,200 votes. Interestingly, though (if I’m reading this map correctly), it seems like the Mat-Su Valley (the most conservative part of the state, including Wasilla, home of Miller’s most famous endorsers) has mostly reported (based on state House districts 12 and 15). The Bush (which if you remember your 2008 history, where Young’s victory eventually came from) reports later, and they might be less teabaggish and more pork-friendly out there.

2:00am: The last uncalled GOP primary in Arizona is AZ-03, although we’re up to 81% reporting. Ben Quayle is still leading, by that same 23-18-18 margin over Jim Waring and Steve Moak.

1:45am: One other call: the AP call the GOP primary in AZ-01 for rogue dentist Paul Gosar. He’ll face Ann Kirkpatrick. He wins with only 31%, beating Sydney Hay at 23 and Rusty Bowers at 14.

1:42am: The AP has called Don Young’s GOP primary for him, beating Sheldon Fisher with 70%. He’ll face Dem Harry Crawford in November.

1:41am: We’re up to 33% reporting in Alaska, and it’s still 51-49 for Miller over Murkowski, with a 1,000 vote lead for Miller. (Well, 1,002, if you want to get technical.)

RESULTS:

Arizona, Florida, and Vermont Primary Results Thread #3

1:35am: Follow us over here.

1:34am: And yet another lead change in Vermont. Now Peter Shumlin is back on top by 121 votes over Doug Racine, thanks to only two more precints reporting (now 232 out of 260).

1:28am: Meanwhile, back in Arizona, the AP has called the AZ-08 GOP primary for Jesse Kelly, who unexpectedly beats establishment favorite Jonathan Paton 49-40.

1:26am: We’ve moved up to 29% reporting; Miller still leads Murkowski by about 500.

1:24am: Via the Twitter, Taniel is reminding us that Don Young trailed early in the GOP 2008 primary (against now-Gov. Parnell), and came back slowly as the late precincts from the Bush (where they like and in fact depend on their pork, and thus love the old-school Alaska politicians, in which category Murkowski seems to fall) trickled in.

1:20am: At least the indestructible Don Young is cruising; he leads the AK-AL GOP primary over Sheldon Fisher 70-24.

1:18am: We’ve got gubernatorial results in Alaska too. On the Dem side, Ethan Berkowitz is leading, though maybe not as big a margin as expected; he leads Hollis French 48-42. On the GOP side, Sean Parnell also leading by a not overwhelming margin, 48 over 35 for Bill Walker and 14 for Ralph Samuels.

1:15am: Wow, this is big. We’re just getting the first Alaska results (via the state site, the AP has nothing) and we’ve got a real race in the AK-Sen GOP primary. Joe Miller leads Lisa Murkowski 51-49, with 27% reporting (119 of 438).

1:11am: We’re rounding the halfway mark in AZ-Sen D (1100 out of 2239), and it’s looking like Rodney Glassman is on track to face John McCain. He’s at 35, with Cathy Eden at 28, J. Dougherty at 24, and Randy Parraz back at 13.

1:09am: The AP has called AZ-05, where David Schweikert is still at 39% atop a crowded field. That’s with only 38% reporting, but he’s well ahead of Susan Bitter Smith, at 25.

1:07am: Contrast that with Arizona, where nothing interesting has happened since the initial rollout of votes. In AZ-01, we’re up to 66% reporting, and it’s still the exact same, with Paul Gosar over Sydney Hay 32-23. Rusty Bowers, who on paper seemed like he should have been the frontrunner thanks to his long-ago legislative tenure and then his duties lobbying on behalf of the sand and gravel industry, is in 4th place at 14, trailing B. Beauchamp.

1:03am: I don’t think this Vermont race could get any closer if we tried. Doug Racine pulled back into the lead, by a whopping 13 votes over Peter Shumlin. That’s with 230 out of 260 precincts reporting (88% in).

1:00am: In AZ-03, we’re up to 48% reporting. Looks like Ben Quayle going crying to mommy and daddy may have saved him in the end; he’s still holding at 23, beating Jim Waring and Steve Moak, both at 18.

12:51am: The Peter Shumlin lead is declining a bit in Vermont: he’s up by 45 now, 16,401 to 16,366 over Doug Racine, with Deb Markowitz at 15,621. (That’s 25-25-24.) 88% are reporting.

12:29am: We’re up to 35% reporting in AZ-03, and Ben Quayle has inched up to 23%, ahead of Waring at 19% and Moak at 18%. A Quayle win would certainly breathe a bit of life into well-financed Democrat Jon Hulbard’s campaign…

12:25am: Shumlin’s lead is now down to 75 votes (over Racine). Markowitz trails by 768 votes.

12:21am: Smoke ’em if you got em, fellow Swingnuts.

12:17am: Over in AZ-06, GOP incumbent Jeff Flake is at a somewhat underwhelming 67% against his Some Dude opponent.

12:11am: Get your Florida election law on. Automatic recounts are the name of the game if the final margin is less than 0.5%. In FL-24, Adams leads SnakesinaPool by 0.8% with one measly precinct outstanding.

12:05am: Not much has happened in the Arizona House Races. Gosar’s lead in AZ-01 is 10% of 5,500 votes with 51% reporting; nothing else new from AZ-03, 05, or 08.

12:03am: Shumlin’s now up to a 250-vote lead in VT-Gov, which is probably the largest lead of the night. Markowitz is still about 550 behind Racine.

12:00am: Still no call in FL-24, where we’re missing only one precinct in Brevard County. The last one added no votes, leaving Adams’ lead at 560, or 0.85%. SSP Legal is looking to Florida’s recount laws…

11:54pm: In AZ-Sen (D), we’re at 19% reporting; Glassman leads Eden 35-29, with Parraz in a distant fourth at 12.

11:48pm: More precincts keep flowing (dripping) in Vermont, where Racine is now 49 votes behind Shumlin. Markowitz is another 618 votes behind with 85% in.

11:46pm: Just two precincts left outstanding in FL-24, where Sandy Adams continues to hold her 560-vote lead over Karen SnakesInAPool (TM) Diebel, though both of them are in reptile-infested Brevard County.

11:41pm: Checking in on the Arizona house races, Paul Gosar has a 33-22 over retread Sydney Hay in AZ-01; Ben Quayle has a 22-19-18 lead over Jim Waring and Steve Moak in AZ-03. Dave Schweikert’s seem to have done fine despite his recanted hubris, leading Susan Bitter Smith by 6,000 votes or 39-25 in their AZ-05 rematch; the teabaggish Jesse Kelly has a 50-39 lead over establishment pick Jonathan Paton in AZ-08.

11:37pm: Back in VT-Gov, Peter Shumlin has now taken a 126-vote lead over Doug Racine; Deb Markowitz has now fallen another 526 votes back.

11:34pm: The Glass Man is up to 36-29 over Eden. Over in AZ-08, Kelly leads Paton by 50-39. In AZ-01, it’s 33-23 for rogue dentist Gosar over Sydney Hay.

11:31pm: We’d be remiss if we didn’t mention the one other competitive statewide race in Florida, the AG race on both sides. For the Dems, state Sen. Dan Gelber beat fellow state Sen. Dave Aronberg (who the DCCC had tried to lure into FL-16), 59-41. And on the GOP side, Sarah Palin-approved Pam Bondi beat Charlie Crist’s estranged Lt. Governor, Jeff Kottkamp, 38-33.

11:28pm: Well, that was fast. The AP has called AZ-Sen R for John McCain! (Good news!)

11:20pm: In the 5th, David Schweikert leads Susan Bitter Smith and Jim Ward 39-25-23. And in the 8th, this may be the big surprise of the night: teabagger Jesse Kelly is leading NRCC fave Jonathan Paton by a pretty wide 55-40.

11:19pm: In the House races, Paul Gosar’s over Sydney Hay 36-23 in the 1st. In the 3rd, Ben Quayle is leading 22-19-18 over Jim Waring and Steve Moak.

11:17pm: Finally, some data’s trickling in from Arizona. (Check out the SoS site, not the AP.) John McCain is crushing J.D. Hayworth 60-30. Rodney Glassman has a small lead over Cathy Eden, 33-31. (Randy Parraz is in 4th.)

11:12pm: Check out the raging enthusiasm with which the RGA greeted Rick Scott’s awesome victory!

“Rick Scott is the nominee, the general election has begun, and our party now looks forward.”

11:11pm: Switching back over to Vermont, now that we’re pretty much done with Florida and Arizona hasn’t given us anything yet. It’s Racine and Shumlin both at 25 (Racine up by 43 votes) with Markowitz at 24.

11:07pm: This just gets tastier and tastier. McCollum isn’t conceding yet. He’s saying “this’ll go into the wee hours of the morning.”

RESULTS:

Arizona, Florida, Oklahoma, and Vermont Primary Results Thread

11:00pm: Time for some fresh thread.

10:55pm: Hahahhahahahahahha! The AP calls FL-Gov for none other than Rick Scott! Fuckin’ amazing!

10:53pm: Over in FL-24, is Sandy Adams this cycle’s Alice Kryzan? Diebel attacked Miller on immigration, Miller attacked Diebel on crazy, and Adams is walking through the hole in the middle. Still, it’s a very close race and not yet called.

10:49pm: Speaking of Boyd, the AP just called the race for him. What a crazy race.

10:47pm: The hamsters have been spinning in their wheels furiously to keep the ol’ mainframe running, which is still calling for about a 2-point Scott win and a 3-point Boyd escape.

10:42pm: We have a winner in FL-17! The AP has called the race for state Sen. Frederica Wilson, with 35% of the vote. Self-funder Rudy Moise was a distant second with 16%. He spent over a million bucks to get fewer than 6,000 votes (so far).

10:37pm: Rick Scott has now nudged up to 47%. If he hangs on, Tom Jensen and the gang over at PPP are going to look like geniuses.

10:34pm: Annette Taddeo, who ran a spirited campaign last cycle in FL-18, is running again this year for County Commissioner in Dade Co. Unfortunately, things don’t look so hot for her right now – she is in third place (look for District 8) in a race where the top two candidates advance.

10:28pm: We’re up to 67% in VT-Gov, Racine leads Markowitz by 8 votes. Shumlin trails by 50 or so votes. Basically, every update of this race has given us a new leader.

10:20pm: We’re now up to 81% reporting in Florida, and Rick Scott leads by 46-43. Note the disparity between the AP and Miami-Dade’s website in terms of precincts reporting: AP says 380, Miami-Dade says 526, but both show the same raw vote total. I’ve learned that when in doubt, the AP is usually wrong!

10:13pm: A perfect tie! Racine and Shumlin are at 9,440 votes each. Markowitz is about 200 votes behind.

10:07pm: Over in Vermont, Peter Shumlin had the lead briefly, but now it’s Doug Racine over Markowitz by 34 votes. (52% reporting)

10:06pm: The AP has called FL-25’s GOP primary for David Rivera. He’s up 64, to Crespo’s 25 and Cancio’s 10. Democratic oppo researchers are doing happy dances.

10:05pm: Eagle-eyed watchers may have noticed that the Miami-Dade elections office is about 300 precincts further along than the AP (526, instead of 213). McCollum needs to make up about 40K votes statewide, and the further-along Miami votes only help him make up about 5,000, though. Anyway, according to the AP, 72% are reporting, and it’s still 47-43 in favor of Scott.

9:59pm: It’s still a small Sandy Adams lead on the GOP side in the 24th. She leads Karen Diebel 30-29, with Craig Miller at 27, with 93% reporting. On the Dem side, let’s Partyka like it’s 2010. Suzanne Kosmas beat even-more-conservaDem Paul Partyka 78-22.

9:57pm: Did we mention there were primaries in the open seat FL-12? On the Dem side, Lori Edwards won 75-25 over Doug Tudor, the 2008 candidate and the preferred candidate of a few vocal souls in the netroots. On the GOP side, Dennis Ross’s performance against some teabagging dude J. Lindsey wasn’t overwhelming: 69-31.

9:55pm: Allen Boyd is starting to put a little more distance between him and Al Lawson, if 52-48 can be considered distant. That’s with 86% reporting, and with mostly rural white counties left (Boyd’s stronghold) to report.

9:51pm: Things are starting to look kind of locked in, in the Florida GOP gubernatorial race. With 65% reporting, it’s still 47 for Lex Luthor Bizarro World Peter Garrett Rick Scott, 43 for Bill McCollum. There’s still 2/3ds of Miami-Dade County left, though, where McCollum is doing well (up 63-30), presumably because of his support in the Cuban community over his less-insane immigration stance.

9:47pm: In the wildly swinging Vermont gubernatorial race (if you go by percentages instead of raw votes), Deb Markowitz has pulled back into the lead by about 65 votes over Doug Racine. It’s 26-26 with Shumlin at 24 and Dunne at 19.

9:44pm: One more call to mention: the AP called OK-05 for outsiderish social con Jim Lankford, who beats Club for Growth stooge Kevin Calvey 65-35.

9:41pm: The AP called the Dem field in FL-25 for Joe Garcia, who beats Luis Meurice 77-23. Still no call on the GOP side, but David Rivera’s at 64.

9:39pm: No call yet in the GOP field in FL-24, but it has one thing in common with FL-08: the NRCC’s prize pick finished embarrassingly back. In the 24th, Craig Miller is in 3rd at 27 (with Sandy Adams at 31 and Karen Diebel at 30). And in the 8th (which is called), Bruce O’Donoghue finished 5th, at _7_, behind Daniel Webster at 40, Todd Long at 23, Kurt Kelly at 14, and heretofore unknown P. Sullivan at 11.

9:37pm: Somewhere in there, the Republican primary in FL-05 got called for the Nuge. That’s Richard Nugent, not Ted, the Hernando Co. Sheriff who beats random teabagger Jason Sager 62-38 for the right to succeed Ginny Brown-Waite. He’ll face Dem Jim Piccillo in the general.

9:35pm: With 57% now reporting statewide in Florida, we’re still holding at a 47-43 lead for Rick Scott. That’s with 10 for Mike McAllister, a pretty good showing for Some Dude, although he pretty much a priori has to be the least of three evils.

9:32pm: The mainframe at SSP Labs has finally laid its egg (extrapolating each county’s results so far), and it predicts that Allen Boyd will continue to hold the lead and survive, by a not-so-convincing 52-48 margin. (He’s currently up 51-49 over Al Lawson, says the AP.) By the way, who ever wins will face Steve Southerland; the AP has called the GOP field in the 2nd for him, with 48% out of a field of five.

9:30pm: In what’s likely to not be the last lead change of the night, now Doug Racine leads the Dem pack in Vermont, with not quite 1/3 reporting. Racine’s at 26, with Markowitz at 25 and Shumlin at 24. (Racine’s edge is just 22 votes, so this’ll be a game of inches all night.)

9:15pm: And in FL-Gov, Rick Scott leads by 3.6% with 55% of the vote in. The other hot race to watch is FL-24, where conservative state Rep. Sandy Adams leads Karen “Snakes in a Pool” Diebel by 1% with 90% reporting.

9:14pm: We’re at 73% reporting in FL-02, and Allen Boyd’s lead has dipped down to 51-49. The ticker tape is spewing out of the SSP Labs mainframe fast and furiously — we’ll let you know what our findings tell us in a few minutes.

RESULTS:

Florida, Oklahoma, and Vermont Primary Results Thread

9:06pm: Move along, now, y’all. Over here.

9:04pm: “Out East” or so they say, with 18% reporting in Vermont, Markowitz has a 121-vote lead over Shumlin, who has a 6-vote lead over Racine. For those of you that prefer percentages, that’s 26-25-25, with 19 for Dunne.

9:01pm: 39% reporting in OK-05 now, Jim Lankford continues to lead Kevin Calvey, now 61-39. First of several outsider upsets tonight?

8:57pm: All of Broward’s reporting in FL-17, Wilson continues to hold her 33-16 lead. Broward is 26% of the district.

8:55pm: The AP’s also called FL-08 for Daniel Webster, who’s holding his 40-23 lead over Todd Long.

8:53pm: The AP’s called the OK-02 runoff for Charles Thompson, who…has a $13k warchest. While that’s better than Edmonds’ $1300, it’ll likely be no match for Dan Boren.

8:49pm: Bill McCollum is lagging Rick Scott just a little more in FL-Gov (R), with Scott now up 46-43. While McCollum’s stronghold of Miami-Dade is only 0.1% reporting, let’s not forget that  around 40% of votes are cast early in Florida, and those have indeed reported.

8:47pm: Some early results coming through in Vermont. With 12% reporting, SoS Deb Markowitz has a narrow 28-25 lead over Lt. Gov Doug Racine; Shumlin and Dunne are close behind at 21 apiece.

8:44pm: Further down the peninsula, Daniel Webster leads Todd Long 40-23 in FL-08; Sandy Adams leads Karen Diebel 32-30 in FL-24, and “Road Rage” Rivera has 65 in FL-25. For the “Get to Congress Free” card in FL-17, Frederica Wilson has 33% to Rudy Moise’s 16%. (The GOP isn’t contesting this district in November.)

8:39pm: Another 200 precincts have rolled in down in Florida; Rick Scott continues to hold his 46-44 advantage for the GOP Gov nod. 57% reporting in FL-02, with Boyd seeing a little more daylight at 52-48 now. Alarmingly for him, only early votes have reported in Gadsden County, which is heavily-Democratic and majority-black.

8:38pm: In Oklahoma, Charles Thompson leads Daniel Edmonds 66-34 in OK-02 with about 10% reporting; Jim Lankford looks on track to upset establishment pick Kevin Calvey in OK-05, leading 58-42 with 9% reporting.

8:24pm: Wow. Allen Boyd only leads Al Lawson by 2% with 42% reporting.

8:21pm: Summerwind sails into the sunset. The AP has called the Dem Senate primary for Kendrick Meek.

8:18pm: Over in FL-24, Sandy Adams leads Karen “Snakes in a Pool” Diebel by 31-30 with 29% reporting.

8:11pm: We’re up to 30% reporting in Florida, and Scott is still holding steady at 46-44 over McCollum. Meek leads Greene by 55-32. Oh, and hey: The AP has called FL-Sen (R) for Marco Rubio and FL-Gov (D) for Alex Sink.

8:05pm: Some early results in from Vermont — Deb Markowitz, Matt Dunne, and Doug Racine are separated by a mere handful of votes.

7:57pm: Rick Scott’s margin has tightened to 46-44, in part thanks to McCollum’s strong performance in Miami-Dade, where the pocket protector-wielding dork is boasting 66% of the vote.

7:48pm: In the AP’s hot early precinct action in FL-25, scumbucket David Rivera has 57% to Paul Crespo’s 33% and Mariana Cancio’s 10%.

7:42pm: We’re up to 5.5% reporting in the Gov race, and Rick Scott’s lead over Bill McCollum is now at 48-42. In the Senate race, Meek now leads Greene by 51-36.

7:36pm: Some early House primary results: Boyd leads Lawson 59-41 in FL-02. Richard Nugent’s got a 60-40 lead over Pat Sager in FL-05. Dan Webster’s at 40%, with a big lead over Todd Long in FL-08. In FL-24, Sandy Adams, Karen Diebel and Craig Miller are essentially locked in a three-way tie.

7:31pm: So much for the Florida DoE’s futile plan to hold the results until 8pm… The Associated Press has already got some early precinct action: Meek is up 48%-38% on Greene, and Rick Scott leads Bill McCollum by 50-40!

7:24pm: And we’re off! Only, Florida is holding their results until 8pm…

RESULTS:

Predictions Thread

Polls close in less than an hour in select locations, so let’s hear some predictions! Can Bill McCollum beat free-spending Rick Scott by virtue of being less unlikeable in the Florida governor’s race? Can Jeff Greene sail his vomit-covered yacht through the rapidly closing window in the Florida Senate race? Can J.D. Hayworth help you get free government grant money?

Closing times tonight:

• Florida: 7 pm ET (except: 7 pm CT/8 pm ET in the Panhandle)

• Vermont: 7 pm ET

• Oklahoma: 7 pm CT/8 pm ET

• Arizona: 7 pm MST/10 pm ET

• Alaska: 8 pm local/midnight ET (except: 8 pm local/1 am ET in the Aleutians)

August Primaries to Watch

After a slow few weeks in late June and July, August promises to be quite exciting, primary-wise!

Here are some races to watch in August:

8/3:

MO-Sen (R) – Blunt v. teabagger

MO-04 (R) – Free-for-all

MO-07 (R) – open seat

Proposition C – It’s about NULLIFICATION!

KS-Sen (R) – Moran/Tiahrt

KS-01, 04 (R) – open seats

KS-03 (R) – Yoder v. Lightner

KS-04 (D) – will Raj Goyle get VicRawl’d?

MI-Gov (D), (R)

MI-01, 02, 03 (R) – open seats

MI-07 (R) – Rooney/Walberg

MI-09 (R) – Rocky v. Welday

MI-12 (D)

MI-13 (D) – Kilpatrick weak

8/5: (hey, two primaries in one week!)

TN-Gov (R) – open seat

TN-03 (R) – Wamp’s open seat

TN-04 (R) – clusterfuck

TN-06 (R) – open seat

TN-08 (R) – Kirkland v. Flinn

TN-09 (D) – impending Willie Herenton fail

8/10:

CT-Gov (D) and (R) – Lamont/Malloy and Fedele/Foley

CT-Sen (R) – ghost of Rob Simmons?

CT-02, 04, 05 (R)

CO-Gov (R) – McInnis and Maes double fail

CO-Sen (D) – Bennet v. Romanoff

CO-Sen (R) – the devil wears prada?

CO-03, 07 (R)

GA-Gov (R) – Palin Handel v. Newt Deal

GA-07, 12 (R) – more runoffs

GA-09 (R) – Graves v. Hawkins round 3

MN-Gov (D) – Dayton v. Kelliher

8/17:

WA-Sen

WA-03

WY-Gov (D), (R)

8/24:

AZ-Sen (D), (R)

AZ-03 (R) – Shadegg’s open seat

AZ-01, 05, 08 (R)

VT-Gov (D)

FL-Gov (R) – (yes!!!!!!)

FL-Sen (D) – Meek v. Greene

FL-12, 25 (R) – open seats

FL-02, 08, 22, 24 (R)

FL-02 (D) – challenge to a Blue Dog from the left, v4.1

FL-17 (D) – Meek’s open seat

AK-Gov (R) – Parnell and the ghost of Palin?

AK-Sen (R) – Murkowski v. Palin proxy

8/28:

LA-Sen (R) – Vitter v. Traylor

LA-02 (D) – Lafonta v. Richmond

LA-03 (R)

WV-Sen (D), (R) – Byrd special primary

Vermont Legalizes Gay Marriage With Veto Override

Haha.  Despite Governor Douglas’s grandstanding the bill still passed.  Vermont becomes the first state where the legislature successfully passes full marriage equality without intervention of the courts.

Now the time has come to run that clown of a Governor out of office come 2010.

http://abcnews.go.com/TheLaw/w…

Vermont has become the fourth state to legalize gay marriage – and the first to do so with a legislature’s vote.

The Legislature voted Tuesday to override Gov. Jim Douglas’ veto of a bill allowing gays and lesbians to marry. The vote was 23-5 to override in the state Senate and 100-49 to override in the House. Under Vermont law, two-thirds of each chamber had to vote for override.

The vote came nine years after Vermont adopted its first-in-the-nation civil unions law.

It’s now the fourth state to permit same-sex marriage. Massachusetts, Connecticut and Iowa are the others. Their approval of gay marriage came from the courts.

VT-Gov 2010 Racine’s in, Douglas proposes changing school funding, Spaulding will decide soon.

During the 2008 gubernatorial season democrats waited until May to field a candidate.  This cycle, Vermont democrats stepped up with Doug Racine announcing that he would take on Jim Douglas come 2010.  Racine was a former Lite governor who lost to Douglas in 2002, 47-44.  

“Racine, 56, who expects to return as chairman of the Senate Health & Welfare Committee, said he is focused on the 2009 legislative session. He said he informed several Douglas administration officials Monday of his plans to run for governor and that he doesn’t expect it to affect his work with them.”

There have also been rumblings of stronger candidates mounting a challenge against Douglas.  

“Several high-profile Democrats are considering a run, amid pressure from party activists to get an early start. State Treasurer Jeb Spaulding said he’s still considering a run and expects to decide within a few months.”

Spaulding has been Treasurer since 2002, is the president of the national association of state treasurers, and was a state senator from1995-2001.  This would make him one of the strongest candidates to challenge Douglas since Racine’s first challenge back in 2002.  He will decide within three months.  

The race is also complicated by Douglas’ recent proposals to deal with the recession.  The biggest issue will be scrapping act 68, the way that Vermonters pay for education, without offering any sort of alternative way to fund education.  

“If local school boards want to spend more per pupil than they are doing in the current year, any additional funds would have to be paid for entirely by local residential property taxpayers. Income sensitivity provisions – under which homeowners pay school taxes based on income, not property values – would not apply.”

Reopening this can of worms could potentially weaken Governor Douglas’ popularity.  Normally Douglas survives by not doing or proposing anything too controversial, then benefits from the independence of the electorate and the left far left split.  A violent education battle could be the issue that makes Douglas vulnerable.

If Douglas is indeed weakened by the education battle or seems weak, then Spaulding will most likely join the fray, as could sec of state Deb Markowitz.  If however Douglas runs for re-election, and doesn’t appear vulnerable, Racine will have the nomination all to himself, and will most likely face a three way race with Anthony Pollina.  Pollina was the progressive turned independent who beat Gaye Symington in the 2008 election.  

If Douglas retires, the election will quickly become bedlam.  The Vermont political scene is constipated, with every statewide official, as well as many aspiring state senators and mayors stuck.  Should Douglas retire, plethora of positions open up.  The governors seat will free up first, then the lite govs seat, if lite gov Brian Dubie runs for governor, or retires.  From there, Markowitz and Spaulding will run hopefully for those two positions, or will primary each other for the governor’s seat.  This will open the treasurer’s position and secretary of state.  If Douglas retires, Racine will most likely lose the primary battle, and democrats will be favored for all of the aforementioned positions.  There are some wildcards however.

1. Leahy retirement/Death:  in his seventies, Leahy could decide to retire in 2010 giving Douglas and Dubie the option to run for senate.  They passed on the open seat in 2006, but both knew they couldn’t beat Bernie Sanders.  For the democrats the only dems who could win would be Markowitz, Spaulding and current House rep Peter Welch.  Welch is popular, but Douglas and Dubie have been on the statewide scene the longest.  This would be his only chance to become a senator as Bernie will almost certainly run for re-election in 2012.  By the time an open seat comes up in 2016 or 2018 Welch will be 67-70. 67-70 Year olds do not run for freshman terms in the senate unless they know they can’t win.  By 2016/2018 Welch will have seniority and will probably be looking towards either a good committee assignment, house leadership role, or cabinet position depending on who wins in 2016.   With Markowitz and Spaulding, who knows?

2.  Howard Dean returns to Vermont politics:  there haven’t been any rumblings of this, but with the whole “Obama is dissing Dean Meme” it’s possible that dean will return to Vermont either to run for senator if there’s a retirement or governor again.  I put the chances in the low single digits, but were it to happen, it would change everything.  

3.  Further economic downturns.  Who knows how this could affect the race, but it probably will.

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vermont Gov election updates

For months now Democrats have merely been in the speculative phase in terms of having a candidate for governor.  First “Young Dunne,” former state legislator Matte Dunne who nearly took down Brian Dubie two years floated his name, but reneged.  Peter Gailbraith, a former ambassador had been floating his name, but he was a second tier candidate at best, without any legislative or executive experience to speak of.  Meanwhile, “Tony the Prog,” Anthony Pollina, a perennial candidate for the progressive party announced that he was running, and hoped for a two man race. This was a rather sad state of affairs, considering how strongly democratic Vermont is, and the opportunity that a surge of democratic voters in the presidential election could bring us.  Then House Speaker Gaye Symington announced that she was going to run, challenging incumbent governor Jim Douglas.  

With four years experience as speaker of the house, and a progressive record on health care, the economy, and childcare issues, she is clearly a top tier candidate.  Speaker Symington has been a legislator for twelve years, first elected to the house in 1996.  During her freshman term as a legislator, she worked to pass Act-60, the plan that funds Vermont’s education system.  After democrats lost the legislature following backlash from both the aforementioned Act 60, and civil unions, Speaker Symington helped bring the democrats back into the majority in both the house and senate, and they now enjoy a 2/3 majority in both houses.  It is because of this, I am asking the netroots to look into Speaker Symington, and contribute.  Her website http://symingtonforgovernor.com/ is a bit primitive at the moment, but should be enhanced soon (at least it better be).

Despite her qualifications, she still faces steep odds, especially in a three way race.  Under the Vermont Constitution, if none of the candidates receive a majority of the votes, then the legislature chooses the governor.  Jim Douglas was elected in 2002 with 45% of the vote to Doug Racine’s 42%.  The democratic legislature chose Douglas as he was the vote leader, despite having the votes to elect Racine.  This occurred as many legislators were asked by opponents and constituents to pledge to vote for the popular vote winner.  With Anthony Pollina in the race, this will most likely happen again.  Symington however, may be planning to just keep Douglas under 50% in an attempt to get the legislature to elect her, who knows?  

Currently there are not any polls on the race, but the race will most likely become a fight for moderates.  Douglas will keep his base on the right (the 5,000 people who voted for Huckabee in the republican primary) and right of center moderates, Symington will aim for left of center moderates and Pollina will consoldate the far left progressives.  Both Scudder Parker in 2006 and Peter Clavelle in 2004 (a former independent mayor of Burlington) aimed for the far left and left of center moderates and couldn’t get better than 41%.

With an expected surge in democratic votes, Symington may be able to benefit in ways former gubernatorial candidates could not.  2006 nominee Scudder Parker (his real name) only managed 41% despite the overwhelmingly democratic year. Others however, were able to capitalize on the strong democratic leanings of the elections.  Brian Dubie, the republican LT. Governor barely received a majority of votes (51%).  Had he not received a majority, the legislature could have chosen democratic nominee Matt Dunne as LT Governor.  Tom Salmon son of a former governor of the same name, managed a narrow victory over incumbent Randy Brock to become the newest auditor of accounts.  These democrats were able to utilize the strong democrats tide of 2006, and Symington can and will utilize the democratic leanings of 2008, all she needs to get elected is your support?  Will you step up?