Tag: IN

Previous diaries:

Summary:

Indiana has 9 representatives: 5 Democrats and 4 Republicans

Iowa has 5 representatives: 3 Democrats and 2 Republicans

Kansas has 4 representatives: 1 Democrat and 3 Republicans

 Possibly vul: IN-02 (D)

               IA-03 (D)

               KS-04 now open but was (R)

Sources:

Sources:

House vote in 2008 from WaPo

VoteView (ranked from 1 for most liberal to 447 for most conservative; more than 435 because some districts had more than one rep in the 110th congress)

Race Tracker

Obama vote by CD from Swing State

National Atlas for maps

and my previous diaries.

District: IN-01

Location Northwestern IN, bordering IL and Lake Michigan, south from Gary about 100 miles map

Cook PVI D + 8

Representative Peter Visclosky (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 127

First elected  1984

2008 margin 71-27 over Mark Leyva

2006 margin 70-27

2004 margin 68-32

Obama margin 62-37

Bush margin 2004 44-55

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Safe

District: IN-02

Location Northern central IN, south from South Bend to Kokomo map

Cook PVI  R + 2

Representative Joe Donnelly (D)

VoteView 235

First elected  2006

2008 margin 67-30 over Luke Puckett

2006 margin 54-46

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 54-45

Bush margin 2004 56-43

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Not completely safe, but only vul to a very good Republican opponent.  Tom Weatherwax may run; he is a former state senator.

District: IN-03

Location Northeastern  IN, bordering MI and OH, including Fort Wayne map

Cook PVI  R + 14

Representative Mark Souder (R) Not confirmed

VoteView 338

First elected 1994

2008 margin 55-45  over Michael Montagno

2006 margin 54-46

2004 margin 69-31

Obama margin 43-56

Bush margin 2004 68-31

Current opponents There is a primary opponent, but no Demorats so far.

Demographics 33rd most Republican in Cook PVI

Assessment Gotta be a long shot.

District: IN-04

Location Central IN, including western and southern suburbs of Indianapolis map

Cook PVI  R + 14

Representative Steve Buyer (R) Not confirmed

VoteView 380

First elected  1992

2008 margin 60-40 over Nels Ackerson

2006 margin 62-38

2004 margin 69-28

Obama margin 43-56

Bush margin 2004 69-30

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 25th most Republican per Cook PVI, 47th fewest Blacks (1.3%)

Assessment long shot

District: IN-05

Location Central IN, including eastern suburbs of Indianapolis map

Cook PVI R + 17

Representative Dan Burton (R) Not confirmed

VoteView 410

First elected 1982

2008 margin 66-34 over Mary Ruley

2006 margin 65-31

2004 margin 72-26

Obama margin 40-59

Bush margin 2004 71-28

Current opponents At least one Republican is primarying Burton, and others will run if he retires.

Demographics 22nd fewest in poverty (5.2%), 10th most Republican per Cook PVI

Assessment Long shot

District: IN-06

Location Southern part of eastern IN, bordering OH map

Cook PVI R + 10

Representative Mike Pence (R)

VoteView 431

First elected  2000

2008 margin 64-33 over Barry Welsh

2006 margin 60-40

2004 margin 67-31

Obama margin 46-53

Bush margin 2004 64-35

Current opponents None confirmed.

Demographics 41st fewest Latinos

Assessment Looks tough

District: IN-07

Location Indianapolis and suburbs map

Cook PVI D + 14

Representative Andre Carson (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 147

First elected  2008

2008 margin 65-35 over Gabrielle Campo

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 71-28

Bush margin 2004 42-58

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics  50th most Blacks (29.4%)

Assessment safe

District: IN-08

Location The southern part of eastern IN, including Terre Haute and Evansville map

Cook PVI R + 8

Representative  Brad Ellsworth (D)

VoteView 233

First elected 2006

2008 margin 65-35 over Greg Goode

2006 margin 61-39

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 47-51

Bush margin 2004 62-38

Current opponents Dan Stockton

Demographics 34th most Whites (93.7%), 17th fewest Latinos (0.9%)

Assessment Looks safe; Ellsworth, a conservative Democrat, fits the district well, running way ahead of both Bush and Obama.

District: IN-09

Location Southwestern IN, including Bloomington map

Cook PVI R + 6

Representative Baron Hill (D)

VoteView 229

First elected 2006

2008 margin 58-38 over Mike Sodrel

2006 margin 50-45

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 49-50

Bush margin 2004 59-40

Current opponents Todd Young and Travis Hankins

Demographics 60th most rural (47.7%) and 58th fewest Latinos (1.5%)

Assessment After a close race in 2006, Hill won easily in 2008, he should be OK, and he’s already raised over $200K.

District: IA-01

Location Northern part of eastern IA, bordering WI and IL map

Cook PVI D + 5

Representative Bruce Braley (D)

VoteView 151

First elected  2006

2008 margin 64-36 over David Hartsuch

2006 margin 55-43

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 58-51

Bush margin 2004 46-53

Current opponents None confirmed.

Demographics 61st most Whites (92.1%)

Assessment Braley won pretty easily vs. a well-funded opponent in 2006.  Of course, if no one runs, it’s completely safe.

District: IA-02

Location Southeastern IA, bordering MO and IL, including Cedar Rapids map

Cook PVI D + 7

Representative Dave Loebsack (D)

VoteView 93

First elected  2006

2008 margin 67-39 over Mariannete Miller Meeks

2006 margin 51-49

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 60-38

Bush margin 2004 44-55

Current opponents Steve Rathje

Demographics 53rd most Whites (92.4%)

Assessment This is an increasingly Democratic district, and Loebsack should be OK

District: IA-03

Location Central IA, including Des Moines map

Cook PVI D + 1

Representative Leonard Boswell (D)

VoteView 194.5

First elected  1996

2008 margin  56-42 over Kim Schmett

2006 margin 52-46

2004 margin 55-45

Obama margin 54-44

Bush margin 2004 Bush by 250 votes (of 300,000)

Current opponents None declared. Michael Mahaffey may run.

Demographics 75th most Whites (90.1%)

Assessment Mahaffey ran against Boswell in 1996, and it was close. Boswell has already raised $150K, but this bears watching.

District: IA-04

Location Northern central IA, including Ames map.

Cook PVI  Even

Representative Tom Latham (R)

VoteView 290

First elected  1994

2008 margin  61-39 over Becky Greenwald

2006 margin 57-43

2004 margin 61-39

Obama margin 53-45

Bush margin 2004 51-48

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 20th most Whites (94.7%), 27th fewest Blacks (0.8%), 54th most rural (49.5%)

Assessment Latham has won easily in the past, but this is a swing district.  With the right opponent, who knows?

District: IA-05

Location Western IA, bordering SD and NE, including Sioux City and Council Bluffs map

Cook PVI R + 9

Representative Steve King (R) May run for Governor

VoteView 419

First elected  2002

2008 margin 60-37 over Rob Hubler

2006 margin 59-36

2004 margin 63-37

Obama margin 44-54

Bush margin 2004 60-39

Current opponents None confirmed.

Demographics 33rd most Whites (93.7%), 18th fewest Blacks (0.6%), 53rd most rural (50.6%)

Assessment Long shot, whether it’s King or another Republican; in fact, King (something of a nut, even for the Republicans) may be slightly more vulnerable than a more sane human.

District: KS-01

Location The western 3/4 of KS, bordering NE, OK, and CO map

Cook PVI R + 23

Representative Jerry Moran (R) Retiring to run for Senate

VoteView NA

First elected  NA

2008 margin NA

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 30-69

Bush margin 2004 72-26

Current opponents  7 Republicans are vying for this seat, the 12th most Republican per Cook PVI; No Democrats so far.

Demographics 61st most rural (47.6%)

Assessment Long shot

District: KS-02

Location Eastern KS, except for Kansas City. Includes Topeka map

Cook PVI  R + 9

Representative Lynn Jenkins (R)

VoteView NA

First elected  2008

2008 margin 51-46 over Nancy Boyda

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 43-55

Bush margin 2004 59-39

Current opponents None confirmed.

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Jenkins seems safe.

District: KS-03

Location Kansas City and suburbs  map

Cook PVI R + 3

Representative Dennis Moore (D)

VoteView 196

First elected  1998

2008 margin 56-40 over Rick Jordan

2006 margin 65-34

2004 margin 55-43

Obama margin 51-48

Bush margin 2004 55-44

Current opponents Patricia Barbieri Lightner, maybe others.

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Moore, who had close races early in his career, now seems safe.

District: KS-04

Location Eastern part of southern KS, bordering OK, including Wichita map

Cook PVI R + 14

Representative Todd Tiahrt (R) Retiring to run for Senate

VoteView NA

First elected  NA

2008 margin NA

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 40-58

Bush margin 2004 64-34

Current opponents At least 2 Republicans are running, and at least 2 Democrats: Donald Betts and Robert Tillman (no site)

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment At first glance, this looks like a long shot; but, prior to 2004, Tiahrt had several close races; and Betts, a state senator, has run before.  Could be interesting.

Here’s part seven of the second round of congressional races.  Earlier parts are   here

Indiana has 9 representatives: 5 Democrats and 4 Republicans

Filing deadline was Feb 22, primary is May 6

Iowa has 5 representatives: 3 Democrats and 2 Republicans

Filing deadline is March 14, primary is June 3

Kansas has 4 representatives: 2 Democrats and 2 Republicans

Filing deadline is June 10, primary is August 5

District: IN-01

Location Northwestern IN, bordering IL and Lake Michigan, south from Gary about 100 miles

Representative Peter Visclosky (D)

First elected  1984

2006 margin 70-27

2004 margin 68-32

Bush margin 2004 44-55

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents Mark Leyva, who lost in 2004 and 2006

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Safe

District: IN-02

Location Northern central IN, south from South Bend to Kokomo

Representative Joe Donnelly (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 54-46

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 56-43

Notes on opponents Donnelly ousted Chocola while spending less than half what he spent (Donelly – $1.5 million, Chocola $3.4)

Current opponents Luke Puckett or Tony Zinkle

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Not completely safe, but Chocola was harder to beat than either of the challengers Superribbie ranks this as 23rd most vulnerable Democratic seat.

District: IN-03

Location Northeastern  IN, bordering MI and OH, including Fort Wayne

Representative Mark Souder (R)

First elected 1994

2006 margin 54-46

2004 margin 69-31

Bush margin 2004 68-31

Notes on opponents In 2006, Souder actually got outspent – both spent about $700K, but Thomas Hayhurst spent a little more

Current opponents Michael Montagno

Demographics 33rd most Republican in Cook PVI

Assessment Gotta be a long shot, but Superribbie ranks it as 68th most vulnerable Republican seat

District: IN-04

Location Central IN, including western and southern suburbs of Indianapolis

Representative Steve Buyer (R)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 62-38

2004 margin 69-28

Bush margin 2004 69-30

Notes on opponents In 2006, David Sanders spent $133K to Buyer’s $500K

Current opponents Nels Anderson

Demographics 25th most Republican per Cook PVI, 47th fewest Blacks (1.3%)

Assessment long shot

District: IN-05

Location Central IN, including eastern suburbs of Indianapolis

Representative Dan Burton (R)

First elected 1982

2006 margin 65-31

2004 margin 72-26

Bush margin 2004 71-28

Notes on opponents Katherine Carr, the opponent both times, raised very little money

Current opponents Chester Kelsey and Mary Etta Ruley

Demographics 22nd fewest in poverty (5.2%), 10th most conservative per Cook PVI

Assessment Long shot

District: IN-06

Location Southern part of eastern IN, bordering OH

Representative Mike Pence (R)

First elected  2000

2006 margin 60-40

2004 margin 67-31

Bush margin 2004 64-35

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents Barry Welsh

Demographics 41st fewest Latinos

Assessment Somewhat vulnerable Superribbie ranks him the 79th most vulnerable Republican

District: IN-07

Location Indianapolis and suburbs

Representative None (Julia Carson died in office) special election will be Andre Carson (D) vs. Jonathan Elrod (R)

First elected  NA

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 42-58

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents see above

Demographics  50th most Blacks (29.4%)

Assessment Quite vulnerable. Superribbie ranks this the 37th most vulnerable Democratic seat, with a score of 91

District: IN-08

Location The southern part of eastern IN, including Terre Haute and Evansville

Representative  Brad Ellsworth (D)

First elected 2006

2006 margin 61-39

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 62-38

Notes on opponents Ellsworth ousted Hostetler, and also out-raised him – $1.7 million to $580K

Current opponents Greg Goode or Paul Abramson

Demographics 34th most Whites (93.7%), 17th fewest Latinos (0.9%)

Assessment Vulnerable Superribbie ranks this the 27th most vulnerable Democratic seat, with a score of 95

District: IN-09

Location Southwestern IN, including Bloomington

Representative Baron Hill (D)

First elected 2006

2006 margin 50-45

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 59-40

Notes on opponents Hill and Mike Sodrel have been exchanging this district for years; in 2006, Hill raised $1.9 million to Sodrel’s $2.7 million

Current opponents Sodrel is running, as is Aaron Hawkins

Demographics 60th most rural (47.7%) and 58th fewest Latinos (1.5%)

Assessment One of the most vulnerable Superribbie ranks this the 7th most vulnerable Democratic seat, with a score of 110

District: IA-01

Location Northern part of eastern IA, bordering WI and IL

Representative Bruce Braley (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 55-43

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 46-53

Notes on opponents This was an open seat, Braley and the Republican each had about $2.4 million

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 61st most Whites (92.1%)

Assessment Superribbie (link above) gives this a vulnerability of 86 (45th most vul Democrat) but Braley won pretty easily vs. a well-funded opponent.  Of course, if no one runs, it’s completely safe.

District: IA-02

Location Southeastern IA, bordering MO and IL, including Cedar Rapids

Representative Dave Loebsack (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 51-49

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 44-55

Notes on opponents Loebsack ousted Jim Leach, in a race where each spent about $500 K

Current opponents Lee Harder (per WIKI, but perhaps others)

Demographics 53rd most Whites (92.4%)

Assessment Superribbie gives this one a 94, but Harder does not appear to be a serious threat.

District: IA-03

Location Central IA, including Des Moines

Representative Leonard Boswell (D)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 52-46

2004 margin 55-45

Bush margin 2004 Bush by 250 votes (of 300,000)

Notes on opponents In 2006, Boswell and Lamberti each raised about $2 million

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 75th most Whites (90.1%)

Assessment Superribbie gives this a 94; Boswell has had only one comfortable win (in 2000).  If Lamberti runs, this may be competitive

District: IA-04

Location Northern central IA, including Ames.

Representative Tom Latham (R)

First elected  1994

2006 margin 57-43

2004 margin 61-39

Bush margin 2004 51-48

Notes on opponents In 2006, Selden Spencer raised about $500K to Latham’s $1.1 million.  The 2004 opponent raised less

Current opponents William Myers

Demographics 20th most Whites (94.7%), 27th fewest Blacks (0.8%), 54th most rural (49.5%)

Assessment Superribbie gives this a vulnerability of 95; in national elections IA-04 has been very close. But Latham has won reasonably easily.  I don’t know much about Myers

District: IA-05

Location Western IA, bordering SD and NE, including Sioux City and Council Bluffs

Representative Steve King (R)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 59-36

2004 margin 63-37

Bush margin 2004 60-39

Notes on opponents Joyce Schulte ran in 2004 and 2006, raising about $70K each time

Current opponents :

Rob Hubler

and

Bob Chambers

Demographics 33rd most Whites (93.7%), 18th fewest Blacks (0.6%), 53rd most rural (50.6%)

Assessment Long shot

District: KS-01

Location The western 3/4 of KS, bordering NE, OK, and CO

Representative Jerry Moran (R)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 71-20

2004 margin 91-9 (vs. a Libertarian)

Bush margin 2004 72-26

Notes on opponents John Doll, in 2006, raised about $60K

Current opponents  James Bordonaro (no site)

Demographics 61st most rural (47.6%), 10th most Republican per Cook PVI

Assessment Long shot

District: KS-02

Location Eastern KS, except for Kansas City. Includes Topeka

Representative Nancy Boyda (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 51-47

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 59-39

Notes on opponents Boyda ousted Jim Ryun, while spending $300K less than he did ($700K to $1 million)

Current opponents Jim Ryun and Lynn Jenkins

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Vulnerable.  Superribbie ranks this the 3rd most vulnerable Democratic seat, with a score of 112.  If Ryun wins the primary, it’s probably not too vulnerable, but Jenkins has a good shot

District: KS-03

Location Kansas City and suburbs

Representative Dennis Moore (D)

First elected  1998

2006 margin 65-34

2004 margin 55-43

Bush margin 2004 55-44

Notes on opponents In 2006, Chuck Ahner raised $400K to Moore’s $1.8 million; in 2004, Kris Kobach raised $1.2 million to Moore’s $2.4 million

Current opponents Joel Balam, Nick Jordan and possibly Chuck Ahner and Paul Showem

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Superribbie gives KS-03 a 88 (42nd most vulnerable Democrat).  Moore had several close races before 2004.

District: KS-04

Location Eastern part of southern KS, bordering OK, including Wichita

Representative Todd Tiahrt (R)

First elected  1994

2006 margin 64-34

2004 margin 66-31

Bush margin 2004 64-34

Notes on opponents Neither raised money

Current opponents Donald Betts

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment At first glance, this looks like a long shot; but, prior to 2004, Tiahrt had several close races, and Betts, a state senator, is his first serious opponent.  Could be interesting

I am all for running everywhere, and the 50 state strategy.

But neither we nor the Republicans are running everywhere (at least not yet!) In this series, I will look at where we are not running (I am not going to look at where Republicans are not running, as I have no desire to help Republicans, however modestly)

This diary is partly inspired by the great work done by BENAWU.

crossposted to dailyKos

In previous diaries, I looked at TX, OH, IL, MD, MS, WV, KY, and PA; today, NM, where the filing  is 2/12, and IN, where it is 2/22.

The numbers after each are a) Cook PVI and b) A rating of the district based on a model I created details here – basically a logistic model based on a lot of demographics; the number is the predicted probability of being Republican, based solely on the demographics.  I also have a model that includes Cook PVI, but, well….I give you the Cook number too.

NM has 3 congressional districts, 2 are held by Republicans, 1 by a Democrat

IN has 9 districts, 5 Democratic and 4 Republican

The districts held by Democrats are



                                          Confirmed

district Cook Prob Repub   Incumbent       Challenger?     rating

IN-01     D+8      .45      Visclosky       Yes            Safe (rematch)

IN-02     R+4      .59      Donnelly        Yes            Somewhat vul

IN-07     D+9      .20      none (Carson)   Yes            Prob. safe

IN-08     R+9      .70      Ellsworth       Yes            Unclear

IN-09     R+7      .75      Hill            Yes            Vulnerable            

NM-03     D+6      .34      Udall           No             Udall retiring

Indiana has several vulnerable representatives.

NM-03 is probably safely Democratic….NM will be one wild place, with all the house seats open, and one senate seat, and Richardson running for President (not any more).

Now, for the seats held by Republicans:

IN-03 R+16  .70

IN-03 is the NE corner of IN, bordering MI and OH

Souder, first elected in 1994, has had a couple of fairly close races.  In 2006, he won 54-46 against Thomas Hayhurst, in a relatively low cost race (each spent around $700,000)

Hayhurst may run again, and Mike Montagano is definitely running.  In October, he had more cash on hand than Souder did, and has several endorsements.  Could be interesting

IN-04 R+17 .73

IN-04 is a long, narrow district, in western central IN, including western exurbs of Indianapolis

Buyer, first elected in 1992, has won easily without spending huge amounts, the last two times against David Sanders

Sanders might run again, and Nels Ackerson is running. His website makes him sound distinctly moderate, and this looks like a longshot

IN-05 R+20 .75

IN-05 is also long and narrow, but it’s eastern central IN, including northern and eastern suburbs of Indianopolis.

Burton, first elected in 1982, has won easily, although his closest race ever was in 2006, when Katherine Carr managed to get 31% with almost no money.

She might run again, but there is no confirmed challenger.

IN-06 R+11 .72

IN-06 is yet another long, narrow district, this one on the eastern edge of IN, bordering OH, and home of the famously typical Muncie

Pence, first elected in 2000, has not had well-funded opponents.  In 2006, Barry Welsh got 40% with only $45,000 (to Pence’s $1.3 million).

Welsh is running again; he’s also written about his race on daily Kos .

NM-01 D+2 .34

NM-01 is the center of NM, including Albuquerque

Wilson, first elected in 1998, won one of the closest (maybe the closest) races in the country in 2006, winning by 861 votes out of 210,000, in a race where she spent almost $5 million and her opponent, Patricia Madrid, spent over $3 million.  Now, Wilson is likely to retire to run for Senate.

There are two confirmed Democrats: Martin Heinrich ; Jon Adams ; and (Jason Call has withdrawn, unfortunately), and several others (including Madrid) might run.  No confirmed Republicans yet.  Gonna be interesting!

NM-02 R+6  .37

NM-02 is the southern half of NM.

Pearce, first elected in 2002, and re-elected pretty easily even against well-funded opponents (he won 60-40 in 2004 against Gary King, who spent over $1 million), is probably retiring to run for Senate.

There are 4 confirmed Democrats: Bill McCamley ; Al Kissling ; Harry Teague and Joe Cervantes. McCamley wrote about his candidacy here .