MO-Gov: Blowout; SSP Moves to “Likely Dem”

SurveyUSA (10/11-12, likely voters, 9/23-24 in parens):

Jay Nixon (D): 56 (54)

Kenny Hulshof (R): 34 (37)

Andrew Finkenstadt (L): 4 (2)

Gregory Thompson (CP): 2 (2)

(MoE: ±4.2%)

At some point, we may have to invoke the SSP Mercy Rule on this race; with three weeks left and Nixon up by 22, it seems we can safely close the book on this race and put it on the shelf next to the Virginia senate race. Nixon leads in every region of the state, even the bible-thumping Southwest; he leads among gun owners and regular church goers. Add to this the knowledge that Hulshof, short on money, is drawing down his TV ad campaign (h/t RandySF).

Bear in mind this is the same sample that gives Obama a probably too-good-to-be-true lead in Missouri of 51-43. Even if it’s an overly optimistic sample, though, this isn’t the kind of deficit anyone comes back from.

UPDATE: Swing State Project has upgraded this race to Likely Democratic.

WA-Gov, NC-Gov, MO-Gov: Gubernatorial Roundup

SurveyUSA (9/21-22, likely voters, 9/5-7 in parentheses):

Chris Gregoire (D-inc): 50 (47)

Dino Rossi (R): 48 (48)

(MoE: ±3.8%)

I’ll file Washington’s governor’s race in the “good news” column: after a period in the post-GOP convention afterglow when Dino Rossi nosed ahead of Chris Gregoire (or shot ahead by 6, in the case of that sketchy Rasmussen poll), we may be returning the old stasis, with a tiny edge for Gregoire, who remains deeply dependent on Obama coattails to get her over the finish line. In the same sample, Obama leads 54-43, again, much more plausible than his +2 in the last Rasmussen. (H/t mikeel.)

UPDATE: Here’s an amusing little aside. The Washington Democratic Party is suing Secretary of State Sam Reed (a Republican, but a highly ethical one) to force him to change Rossi’s self-selected ballot line (from “GOP Party” to “Republican”). I don’t think the Dems have a legal leg to stand on, but it makes sense for them to try, in wake of last week’s Elway poll giving Gregoire a 4-point lead when Rossi is identified as “prefers GOP Party” and a 10-point lead when he’s identified as “Republican.”

PPP (9/17-19, likely voters, 9/9 in parentheses):

Bev Perdue (D): 44 (41)

Pat McCrory (R): 43 (40)

Michael Munger (L): 6 (6)

(MoE: ±3.0%)

Civitas (R) (9/17-20, registered voters, 9/6-10 in parentheses):

Bev Perdue (D): 41 (40)

Pat McCrory (R): 43 (39)

Michael Munger: 3 (2)

(MoE: ±4.0%)

I’ll file North Carolina under “mixed bag,” as PPP gives Perdue another small edge (this is the same sample that showed Obama and McCain tied at 46 and Hagan up by 5). Civitas gives McCrory a two-point edge, up from a one-point deficit before (this sample showed Obama/McCain tied at 45 and Dole up by 2). This one clearly will go down to the wire.

Research 2000 for St. Louis Post-Dispatch (9/15-18, likely voters, 7/7-10 in parentheses):

Jay Nixon (D): 50 (52)

Kenny Hulshof (R): 43 (35)

(MoE: ±3.5%)

I’ll file this under “bad news,” but this is the kind of bad news that I’ll gladly take. Jay Nixon still leads Kenny Hulshof by a comfortable margin in the race for the open governor’s seat in Missouri, except Research 2000 (working for the St. Louis newspaper rather than Daily Kos on this one) shows that Hulshof has closed within high single digits instead of the showy double-digit margins Nixon has mostly been posting. Rasmussen gave Nixon a 15-point spread last week, so there’s not much cause for alarm, though. (McCain leads in this sample, 49-45.)

MO-Gov: Nixon Still Up Big

Missouri continues to be the Democrats’ best chance at picking up a governor’s seat in 2008, as four-term Attorney General Jay Nixon has a substantial edge over both likely GOP nominees. Research 2000 offers up slightly better numbers than last week’s Rasmussen and PPP polls.

Research 2000 (7/7-7/10, likely voters):

Jay Nixon (D): 52

Kenny Hulshof (R): 35

(MoE: ±3.5%)

Jay Nixon (D): 53

Sarah Steelman (R): 34

Nixon also has a high 56% favorable rating, with 38% unfavorable and only 6% no opinions. (This contrasts with outgoing GOP governor Matt Blunt, with 42%/54% favorable/unfavorable.)

In the Republican primary, it looks like Rep. Hulshof (from MO-09) has a better shot than Steelman, the state treasurer. (27% remain undecided for the fast-approaching Aug. 5 primary, though.) Both Hulshof and Steelman are giving up their current jobs to run for this seat, creating a situation like NM-Sen where we can potentially clean house in three GOP seats in one fell swoop.

Kenny Hulshof (R): 32

Sarah Steelman (R): 24

Scott Long (R): 12

Jen Sievers (R): 5

MO-Gov, MO-09: Hulshof Leaving Congress to Run for Governor

Hoping to fill the vaccum left by incumbent Gov. Matt Blunt's decision not to seek re-election, Rep. Kenny Hulshof (R-MO) is planning to run for governor rather than seek another term in Congress. Hulshof joins the current lieutenant governor and state treasurer in the GOP primary to determine who Democratic AG Jay Nixon gets to defeat in November. In doing so, Hulshof adds his R+6.5 district to the list of open seats Republicans will be defending this fall.

MO-9: Heavyweight Dems eyeing open seat?

In a district where the vast majority of local elected officials are Democrats, it appears that the prospect of the first open seat since 1976 isn’t going to be a wasted opportunity.

Roll Call reports (via the Columbia Tribune Politics Blog):

A Democratic source in that state said “credible Democrats will emerge” to run for Congress should Hulshof throw his hat into the wide-open gubernatorial race. Such a scenario may complicate state Rep. Judy Baker’s (D) already slim chances, while offering Democrats the best shot at winning with possible candidates such as former Lt. Gov. Joe Maxwell (D) and former state Speaker Steve Gaw (D).

“EMILY’s List would think [Baker’s] done a noble enough job that they’d stay with her, [but] local politicos would abandon her in droves if Maxwell got in,” the Democratic source said. “There’s s a general feeling, ‘God love her for trying to take on Kenny,’ but she’s probably not a great fit for that district.”

The source added: “Maxwell and Gaw are probably better for the cultural leanings of that district.”

So, the prospects?

I say that Maxwell would be a pretty strong favorite to win a primary. He carried the district easily in his last primary (Lt. Governors primary in 2000). He has a strong base in the northern part of the district, and enough prestige to do well in Columbia. Although Maxwell is someone who may still choose to stay out of this race due to his wife (he chose not to run for re-election in 2004 due to his wife’s health)

Steve Gaw would also be formidable to a degree. Gaw also ran statewide in 2000, and lost to Matt Blunt for Secretary of State.

The possibility of the first open seat primary in Northeast Missouri since 1976 is attracting quite a bit of attention.

In 1976, the Democratic primary had 11 candidates and was won by Harold Volkmer of Hannibal with 34.8% (Joe Frappier beat future state senator David Doctorian on the Republican side)

In 1964, the Democratic primary had 16 candidates and was won by William Hungate with 17.65% of the vote. The Republicans had four candidates that year.

But these were primaries back in the days that having an ultradivided August primary wasn’t considered a bad thing. And these were primaries when there was a strong Northeast Missouri base for Democrats in general elections.

How this all shapes out depends on the candidates. But, MO-09 might be on the board this fall.