New York’s Republican Primary and New York Politics, Part 2

This is the second part of two posts analyzing New York’s recent Republican primary. It will focus upon Republican weakness in New York City, as revealed by the primary. The previous part can be found here.

New York City in the Republican Primary

One of the more interesting things about American politics is the rural-urban divide. The weakness of the modern Republican Party in urban areas is quite astounding. Much of this has to do with the history of the American city, especially the way in which many cities have become reservoirs of poor minorities.

The Republican gubernatorial primary constituted a particularly powerful demonstration of Republican weakness in American cities. To illustrate this, let’s look at a map of turn-out in businessman Carl Paladino’s victory over former representative Rick Lazio:

Part 2

More below.

This map shows the vote cast by each county as a percentage of the total vote cast in the primary. Erie County, for instance, cast 46,054 votes in the primary. Since 442,608 people voted in total, the county cast 10.41% of the total primary vote.

The turn-out map reveals some fascinating patterns. The biggest counties in the Republican primary were in Buffalo and Long Island. High number of Republicans also voted in Rochester, Syracuse, and Westchester County (north of New York City).

On the other hand, New York City participation in the Republican gubernatorial primary was dismal. Fewer people voted in the five boroughs combined than in Erie County (Buffalo). More than twice as many people voted in all Long Island than in New York City. In the Bronx, 2358 people decided to participate in the Republican primary. This is in a place where an estimated 1,382,793 people live.

Compare these figures to 2008 presidential election:

Part 2

Here we see New York City punching at something closer to its actual strength. Like a giant magnet, New York City’s population pulls away influence from upstate New York and directs it to itself. Indeed, in the presidential election New York City is four times as important as it was in the 2010 gubernatorial Republican primary – constituting 34.23% of the total vote, compared to 8.58% in the Republican primary.

This really says something about the state of the Republican Party in New York City.



New York City in the General Election

The above two maps do not really hammer in the importance of New York City. Stating that five boroughs hold one-third of a state’s vote is one thing, but actually seeing it is another.

The previous post contained an image of New York in the 2008 presidential election. This map only reflected President Barack Obama’s performance in upstate New York, which he won by the high single digits. Here is a picture of said map:

Part 2

(Note: Edited NYT Image. This map underestimates Mr. Obama’s strength, since it doesn’t include a number of absentee ballots and provisional ballots. Both, especially the absentees, tended to go more Democratic than the national average in 2008.)

This looks good for Mr. Obama. There is a lot of blue here and not a lot of red. In reality, however, most of the territory mapped above actually does not belong to the Democratic base. In a close election, almost all of these counties would go strongly Republican. These are the places that generally voted for Carl Paladino.

The real area of Democratic power is in New York City. Let’s add New York City to the above map:

Part 2

Mr. Obama looks really good here; indeed, the blue margins are so large that it is hard to comprehend their magnitude.



Concluding Thoughts

All in all, the divide between New York City’s importance in the Republican primaries and its importance in the general election is quite amazing. It really points to what the Republican coalition of voters is like today. Cities are almost an afterthought; most Republicans assume they will vote Democratic anyways, and so they don’t even bother to compete.

In some states this can be a wise concession. In most states taking the suburbs and the rural areas – occasionally, winning just the rural areas – is enough to win a state election. Cities are not always necessary to win. On the other hand, they certainly are useful to win elections, especially in a state like New York.

Republican candidate Carl Paladino does not look like he will win the general election. Originally trailing Democratic Attorney General Andrew Cuomo 2-to-1, the Republican national wave has closed this to a high single-digit gap. This, however, will be hard to surmount – for much of the remaining gap lies in winning New York City voters, almost none of whom participated in the primary electorate which chose Mr. Paladino.

New York’s Republican Primary and New York Politics, Part 1

This is the first part of two posts analyzing New York’s recent Republican primary. It will focus upon the upstate-downstate divide revealed by the primary. The next part can be found here.

The 2010 Republican Gubernatorial Primary

On September 14th 2010 the Republican Party held its primary in New York. In the gubernatorial primary, party favorite Rick Lazio was defeated by the Tea Party Candidate: businessman Carl Paladino. Mr. Paladino won a comprehensive victory, with 62% of the vote to Mr. Lazio’s 38%.

In the long run, this primary does not matter much – if at all. By next month the primary will all but be forgotten by even the most politically intense folk. Most Americans probably weren’t even aware that there was a primary in the first place.

Yet, whatever its long-term importance, the primary constitutes a valuable tool for exploring New York’s electoral geography. Mr. Paladino’s victory revealed two interesting facts of New York politics. This post will explore the first one.

The Upstate-Downstate Divide

Picture the state of New York, and most Americans will think of a certain city. This fact has long frustrated the many folks who live in upstate New York – which contains more than seven or eight million people, depending on how one defines upstate.

New York state politics have thus been dominated by the divide between upstate and downstate. Upstate generally votes Republican on a local level; downstate votes heavily Democratic. The divide is also apparent in the battle over whether resources are to be spent upstate or in New York City.

On the presidential level, this pattern is relatively hard to discern:

Part 1

A look at upstate New York in the 2008 presidential election shows President Barack Obama dominating. While downstate New York casts an extremely Democratic ballot,  upstate New York also votes for the blue side.

Indeed, Democrats have actually won upstate New York for the past five elections. This table indicates how New York has voted in several recent elections:

Part 1

Only in 1988 does Governor Mike Dukakis lose the upstate vote, and even then Mr. Dukakis does fairly respectably. (Note: This table includes suburban Westchester and Rockland County as part of upstate; an alternative definition may not do so). Thus, it is somewhat difficult to find a difference between upstate and downstate New York when looking at presidential elections.

This was not the case with New York’s Republican gubernatorial primary. Here is a map of the results:

Part 1

This is a tremendous regional divide. Upstate New York votes overwhelmingly for Mr. Paladino, while downstate gives Mr. Lazio a strong vote, despite his overall poor performance. Indeed, in Erie County (Buffalo) Mr. Paladino actually got 93% of the vote. On the other hand, Long Island Suffolk County gave his opponent two-thirds of its support.

Not surprisingly, Mr. Paladino’s home is located in Buffalo, while Mr. Lazio represented a congressional district in central Long Island. Mr. Lazio was also born in Suffolk County. His long history with downstate New York led to considerable discontent upstate, and constituted one factor behind its landslide rejection of Mr. Lazio.

There is one final thing that must be noted, however. While Mr. Paladino definitely looks like a winner under the map above, the 3:2 split may look strange to seasoned observers of New York politics. Mr. Lazio, after all, is winning both New York City and its suburbs. Manhattan, Brooklyn, and Queens are supporting him by double-digits – while he is running very strongly in Long Island.

Democrats have won New York with similar maps. Here is one such map:

Part 1

As it turns out, Mr. Lazio would have indeed done a bit better under general election circumstances. That is, if Mr. Lazio had won the same percent of the vote in each county in the 2008 presidential election, he would have gained 40% of the vote. This is not an enormous change, but in a close election it means the difference between victory and defeat.

This seeming contradiction lies at the heart of another interesting truth that New York’s Republican primary revealed: namely, that Republicans do not exist in New York City. The next post will explore this strange phenomenon.

NY State Senate: Weekly Campaign Roundup #4

It’s time for the fourth edition in our weekly roundup of news from the Democratic campaigns for the New York State Senate.  This week we’ve got endorsements from NYLCV and ESPA, and our candidates go on the attack while Republicans fight amongst themselves.

As always, if you see that we missed something, please include links to more news on New York State Senate campaigns in the comments.  If you Tweet about any campaigns, please consider using the #NYSen10 hashtag.  You can find all our challengers on Act Blue at the Change Albany Now page.  If you’d like to follow these roundups on a daily basis, visit our blog or subscribe to our RSS feed.  –Mike

DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES

The New York League of Conservation Voters, a non-partisan, policy making and political action organization that works to make environmental protection a top priority, announced their support of numerous Democratic Senators and candidates . They endorsed 14 incumbent Democrats and 5 challengers – Dave Mejias, Susan Savage, Joanne Yepsen, Kathleen Joy, and Mary Wilmot. NYLCV President Marcia Bystryn had this to say specifically about Savage: “Susan Savage is exactly the kind of 21st century leader that New York needs. Susan knows that a healthy environment, green jobs and clean energy are not luxuries for the good times – they are the ways forward to a stronger, more economically vibrant New York.”

The Empire State Pride Agenda, the statewide, bi-partisan civil rights and political advocacy organization dedicated to winning equality and justice for lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender (LGBT) New Yorkers, endorsed seven incumbent Democratic Senators and four Democratic challengers in their second round of 2010 endorsements. Not a single Republican was endorsed by the group. “These endorsements are the product of careful consideration by the Pride Agenda’s staff and Political Action Committee,” said executive director Ross Levi in a statement. “Our decisions are not based on a single issue, but a comprehensive review of a candidate’s positions and record, as well an assessment of his or her leadership qualities.”

Joe Williams, Executive Director of Democrats for Education Reform, wrote an op-ed in The New York Daily News that argued the leadership of Senate Majority Leader John Sampson and his fellow Democratic senators are responsible for New York still being in the race for federal dollars. Going forward, Williams argued, “the commitment the Democrats demonstrated for reform needs to be matched by elected officials, school districts and unions across the state.”

Democratic Candidate Mike Kaplowitz has secured the Independence Party line in the November election. He was chosen after an interview and endorsement process. “Voters in the Hudson Valley have shown time and again that they want to be represented by legislators who are independent of the special interests as well as the Albany leadership of both the Republican and Democratic Parties,” Kaplowitz said in a statement. “As an Independent Democrat on the Westchester Board of Legislators, I have been able to lead the way toward cutting millions in waste from the budget, consolidating departments to save money, and reforming pensions.”

Democratic Candidate Dave Mejias attacked his opponent, 21-year incumbent Kemp Hannon, for opposing a $1-per-hour pay raise for Nassau health-care workers . Mejias denounced Hannon’s position, saying: “A guy who has an extra $60,000 to loan his campaign telling workers they don’t deserve a $1 an hour raise is outrageous. 34 years in Albany has made Kemp Hannon quite comfortable, and he obviously doesn’t care what it’s like to try to feed a family on $20,000 a year.” Hannon has received $19,500 in campaign contributions from the Health Care Providers PAC since 2005. After the representatives from health care providers industry failed to provide evidence that the pay raise would hurt health care providers, an attempt to block the raise was unanimously rejected by the Nassau County Legislature on July 26.

Dave Mejias also launched a new campaign site this week.  Check it out at DaveForNewYork.com.

Dan Janison, of Newsday, profiled the race between Regina Calcaterra and 34-year Republican incumbent Ken LaValle. He said Calcaterra brings a “different style” to the race, that she is” hailed by her supporters as a sharp, energetic fighter,” and mentioned her work representing the state’s pension system in the high-profile lawsuit against WorldCom.

After 26-year incumbent and Bruno-successor Dean Skelos criticized Democrats for holding an extra legislative session, Democratic Candidate George Sava hit Skelos with the sad truth of some hard facts. Sava responded by saying: “Skelos is the expert when it comes to wasting tax money. After all, he voted to double state spending over 14 years, stuck taxpayers with a bill for over $1.2 million to fund his office last year, and allowed property taxes to rise 320 percent since he was elected. Nassau County tax payers are suffering. We need public servants who don’t just point the finger but come up with real solutions.”

REPUBLICANS

The Senate GOP decided to attack one of its own this week. Republican Greg Ball, who is running for the GOP nomination in SD-40 where Democratic Candidate Mike Kaplowitz has been running a stellar campaign, woke up to quite a smackdown from the GOP. In response to his organizing a “Women for Ball” event, the SRCC issued the following statement: “This is a tired rerun of what happened two years ago when news first broke that Greg Ball had been hit with an order of protection for stalking his ex-girlfriend. The facts are the facts, and Greg Ball stands accused of groping a waitress at an Albany bar, an account several eyewitnesses confirmed. Today, he trots out a woman whose mother is on the payroll of Ball political ally Steve Katz to spread lies. Those accusations are slanderous and are subject to legal liability. The residents of Dutchess, Putnam and Westchester counties are tired of the distractions, tired of the conspiracy theories and tired of all of the excuses. You can’t take anything Greg Ball says seriously.” For once, a statement well put by the SRCC.

Incumbent Republican Martin Golden, facing his first election contest in years, dropped his petition challenge of Democratic Candidate Mike DiSanto‘. DiSanto declared that he was not surprised by the Golden campaign’s challenge, adding that it is not unusual for “entrenched” incumbent politicians to challenge opponent petition signatures. “Everyone in the community knows my signatures are valid,” said DiSanto. “We live in a democracy and do not crown kings in America. I will not be intimidated by those who seek to undermine the political freedom that our country was founded upon,” With 2,100 signatures, he collected over twice the number required.

Former New York City Council Member Anthony Como, a Republican running for State Senate against Sen. Joe Addabbo, has been ordered to repay nearly $13,000 in unspent and misspent funds to the New York City Campaign Finance Board. The charges stem from his losing 2008 general election Council loss to Elizabeth Crowley. The repayment includes $6,800 that was spent impermissibly on phone and copy machine contracts for his campaign office that spanned well beyond Election Day, repayments of unspent campaign funds, and $100 spent on a newspaper ad for the Holy Child Jesus Team Drama Club that the CFB deemed not campaign related.

NY State Senate: Weekly Campaign Roundup #3

It’s time for the third edition in our weekly roundup of news from the Democratic campaigns for the New York State Senate.  This week we’ve got a bevy of endorsements from the Women’s Campaign Forum, HRC and more.  

As always, if you see that we missed something, please include links to more news on New York State Senate campaigns in the comments.  If you Tweet about any campaigns, please consider using the #NYSen10 hashtag.  You can find all our challengers on Act Blue at the Change Albany Now page.  If you’d like to follow these roundups on a daily basis, visit our blog or subscribe to our RSS feed.  –Mike

DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES

New York state is a finalist for up to $700 million in federal education funds as part of the Race To The Top competition. This is a direct result of the Senate Democratic majority pushing through major legislation in recent months that allow test scores to be used in teacher evaluations and that raise the number of charter schools in the state to 460 from 200.

The Women’s Campaign Forum has endorsed four Democratic candidates: Didi Barrett, Regina Calcaterra, Mary Wilmot, and Robin Wilt. The WCF is dedicated to advancing the political participation and leadership of women who support reproductive health choices for all. WCF, founded in 1974, is a non-partisan national network dedicated to achieving parity for women in public office.

The Human Rights Campaign New York endorsed numerous Democratic challengers and incumbents who are all supporters of marriage equality and whose election will “put New York on a path to fairness and equality for same-sex couples in the state.” They endorsed incumbent Senators Brian Foley, Craig Johnson, Tom Duane, and Dave Valesky — and Democratic candidates Dave Mejias, Tony Avella, and Regina Calcaterra. Not a single Republican was endorsed by the group.

Tony Avella, running against 38-year Republican incumbent Frank Padavan, was endorsed by a massive retail union . The Retail, Wholesale and Department Store Union, which represents 100,000 workers across the United States and Canada, gave Avella the nod, calling him “an independent voice for working New Yorkers and taxpayers.” “He’s exactly the kind of reformer we desperately need in Albany right now,” said Stuart Applebaum, the union’s president.

Democratic Candidate Mike Kaplowitz proposed massive pension reform, advocating for the elimination of overtime for calculating a public employee’s pension and called for creating a pension plan for new public employees that would be similar to a 401K plan. Both measures, he said, could save taxpayers an estimated $2.2 billion over the next three years. “The costs of public pensions are killing New York State taxpayers,” he said. By 2013, Kaplowitz said, public employee pensions will cost taxpayers $6.8 billion — up from $2.4 billion in 2009.

Kaplowitz was also profiled by Jimmy Vielkind on The Albany-Times Union’s Capitol Confidential blog. In the piece, Kaplowitz spoke about how the GOP primary schism in the district is sure to play to his advantage. “There’s no question that the schism between the two of them will benefit me, because there are a lot of rank and file Republicans very angry with and very unhappy with the shenanigans of Assemblyman Greg Ball,” Kaplowitz said. Those shenanigans include an allegation that Ball denies that he groped a woman at an Albany bar, sleeps with a gun under his bed and once found a dead goat on his driveway.

Dave Mejias, running against 21-year Republican incumbent Kemp Hannon on Long Island, was interviewed by The Albany Project. Readers were able to send in questions in advance to ask Mejias, a former Nassau County Legislator. Mejias started out making his case quite strongly: “After 34 years in Albany, Kemp Hannon has forgotten who he represents. He works harder for party bosses and political insiders to maintain the status quo than he does for us. Why else would he have blocked ethics reform, voted to raise taxes over 400 times and most recently voted against restoring school aid?”

Democratic Candidate Didi Barrett, running against Republican incumbent Stephen Saland, weighed in on a variety of issues in a wide-ranging interview with The Register-Star. She said “It’s not about upstate or downstate, it’s about New York state. Politics has gotten in the way of progress for New York. We need an era that doesn’t complain and blame, but gets things done.” On balancing the budget, Barrett said that’s “something someone like me brings to the mix. I’m not a politician; I spent a long time in the not-for-profit sector. I learned to stretch a dollar by thinking outside the box. Everything should be on the table as a way to explore the best solutions.”

Democratic Candidate Joanne Yepsen  has continued to fight for the future of Saratoga Race Course. Yepsen and Sen. Eric Adams, head of the state Senate’s racing committee, held a roundtable at Saratoga National Golf Club to discuss the racing industry’s impact on the local economy. Yepsen said all stakeholders – New York Racing Association, New York City Off Track Betting and the Aqueduct racino operator – should be brought together to deal with racing’s future collectively. Several years ago, NYRA had a management contract with MGM to run Aqueduct’s racino, but the state wouldn’t approve it for unexplained reasons. “We’ve got different people running the state now,” Yepsen said.

Sen. Darrel Aubertine said that he is honored to have the endorsement of independent voters throughout his district. “I’m so pleased and honored to have the endorsement of the local independent voters and the Independence Party ballot line this fall,” Sen. Aubertine said. “Working for all of us means working together. I want to thank all nine members of the local Independence Party Committee and all of the local voters who signed petitions for your support and endorsement.” Over the past year, more than 50 pieces of legislation sponsored or co-sponsored by Sen. Aubertine passed the Senate.

REPUBLICANS

Showing just how out of touch he really is, Republican incumbent Stephen Saland attended a $19,000 black-tie dinner  for his re-election campaign that was thrown by a politically connected couple in April at their Rhinebeck, Dutchess County, estate.  The $19,000 dinner was listed as an in-kind donation to Saland’s campaign. That means it was for services rendered for a political function, but not a direct monetary contribution. “There’s a lot of trust with the reporting by the campaigns,” said Dick Dadey, executive director of Citizens Union, a good-government group. “There’s very little if any verification.”

NY Senate: Weekly Campaign Roundup #2

It’s time for the second edition in our weekly roundup of news from the Democratic campaigns for the New York State Senate.  We’ve just past the petitioning and July filing deadlines, and this edition is all about the numbers.

As always, if you see that we missed something, please include links to more news on New York State Senate campaigns in the comments.  If you Tweet about any campaigns, please consider using the #NYSen10 hashtag.  You can find all our challengers on Act Blue at the Change Albany Now page.  If you’d like to follow these roundups on a daily basis, visit our blog or subscribe to our RSS feed.  –Mike

DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES

Senate Democrats announced record fundraising numbers this past week, reporting a historic $3.5 million raised during the first six months of the year. We now have $3.5 million in cash on hand – more than twice the amount of money we had at this point two years ago, when we went on to pick up two seats in the November elections and take control of the Senate for the first time in decades. After all the numbers came in, Senate Democrats reported a combined $25 million in fundraising for re-election efforts over the last 20 months, $10 million more than GOP lawmakers.

Newsday: On and off L.I., state Senate Dems tout petition and fund totals. Dan Janison, of Newsday, wrote a piece on how Senate Democrats are “blowing our political horns” with our impressive fundraising and petition totals. He specifically mentioned the strength of two Long Island campaigns:Sen. Brian Foley’s, which has over $240,000 cash on hand and filed 4,073 Democratic signatures with the Suffolk County Board of Elections -four times the amount required to qualify for the ballot; and Regina Calcaterra’s, who has raised $260,000 since announcing her candidacy this year and now has nearly $180,000 in cash on hand.

Maggie Haberman of  POLITICO coined 2010 the ‘Year of the Woman’ in an extensive piece that hailed our “unprecedented slate of 10 female hopefuls… in districts ranging from swing-county Suffolk in Long Island to more rural areas of upstate New York.” Jimmy Vielkind of the Albany Times Union later chimed in, wondering if “dissatisfaction with the state of state [will] cause voters to think gender at polls?” He noted that our crop of 10 women candidates may benefit from the palpable anti-incumbency sentiment.

NARAL Pro-Choice New York announced their first round of endorsements in the 2010 election and named the following Democratic candidates for State Senate as 100% pro-choice candidates: Regina Calcaterra, Dave Mejias, Carol Gordon, Mike Gianaris, Didi Barrett, Susan Savage, Kathleen Joy, Pam Mackesey, and Robin Wilt. Not a single Republican Senate candidate was endorsed by NARAL.

Eleanor’s Legacy announced the endorsement of two more State Senate candidates: Cynthia Appleton and Pam Mackesey. This makes an unprecedented seven start-up grants that Eleanor’s Legacy has provided to our candidates this election cycle. They have previously endorsed Didi Barrett, Robin Wilt, Regina Calcaterra, Joanne Yepsen, and Mary Wilmot.

Former Nassau County Legislator Dave Mejias is running strong against 21-year Republican incumbent Kemp Hannon and announced he has raised $116,925 and has $112,921 cash on hand . Mejias also released a campaign kick-off video, in which he denounced the dysfunction in Albany.

Joanne Yepsen announced that she raised more than three times as much as her opponent since she announced her candidacy less than three months ago. Yepsen brought in a total $70,000, and currently has $60,000 cash on hand. Her opponent, Roy McDonald, shockingly announced that his cash on hand actually went down over the past six months. After starting January with $48,000 in the bank, he now has just $44,000.

Didi Barrett reported that she raised over $160,000 since declaring her candidacy just three months ago . The number far surpasses the amount of cash her opponent, a 30-year Albany insider, had on hand when Barrett entered the race. The campaign also collected 3,700 signatures — almost four times the required amount to get on the ballot.

Susan Savage, running against 34-year Republican incumbent Hugh Farley, reported that she raised more than $75,000 for her campaign — almost twice what Farley reported raising over the same time period. “If we want to change Albany, we have to change who we send to Albany. This filing is a clear sign that the people of New York agree,” said Doug Forand, one of Savage’s campaign advisers.

Sen. Darrel Aubertine had an impressive week: he received the Rural Schools Association ‘Appreciation Award, was deemed a “hero” by the New York Farm Bureau, and outraised his GOP opponent. The New York State Rural Schools Association honored Sen. Aubertine with its annual Appreciation Award for his work on behalf of rural schools while Peter Gregg, a New York Farm Bureau spokesman, called him a “hero” and added “we are extremely grateful for Sen. Aubertine. He worked miracles to get the funding restored at the levels at which he did. There was absolutely no money and he somehow found it.” Later in the week, Sen. Aubertine announced he has outraised his opponent by about $24,000 during the first six months of the year. Sen. Aubertine raised over $87,000 in the period, and now has over $159,000 in cash on hand – or about $110,000 more than his opponent

Sen. William Stachowski announced that he now has over $287,000 in cash on hand, after raising nearly $142,000 over the past six months. He also submitted 3,447 signatures on his ballot petitions, well over the required amount to gain ballot access. “Voters in my district are coming to appreciate the importance of qualified, independent representation,” he said. Sen. Stachowski also received the backing of the Independence Party and will appear on their ballot line this fall.

Sen. David Valesky posted impressive fundraising totals, while his Republican challengers are mired in a costly primary battle. Sen. Valesky raised $200,000 over the past six months, and has $465,580 in his campaign coffers. He also received the backing of the Independence Party over his opponent, little-known pianist Andrew Russo.

Tony Avella, running against 38-year Republican incumbent Frank Padavan, received the endorsement of City Council Member Margaret Chin – the first Asian American and the first Chinese American elected to represent New York City’s Chinatown in the city council, and the first Asian American woman elected to the city council.  “Tony Avella is the kind of elected leader that we need in Albany,” stated Council Member Chin, standing in front of the Flushing Public Library. “He has remained a champion for good government and consistently fought for his constituents while a member of the New York City Council.”

Finally, Regina Calcaterra’s campaign launched a new website, and hit their opponent Ken LaValle for improperly using his tax-payer-funded government site to launch political attacks against Democrats.

REPUBLICANS

Siena’s most recent election poll spells trouble for the GOP, showing that less than one in four voters want a Republican Senate, and 69% of voters preferred the existing or an enlarged Democratic majority. In upstate New York – where Republicans sit in most of the Senate seats – just 26% of those polled wanted Republican control of the Senate, as opposed to the 68% who favored Democratic control. Voters upstate are far more pessimistic about the direction of the state – with 86% saying we are on the wrong track – and more likely to vote their incumbent Senator out of office. This is the just the latest in a series of polls that have consistently indicated trouble for Republicans and their electoral prospects this November.

Newsday reported that at a screening for a possible endorsement of Lee Zeldin, the Republican candidate running against Democratic Sen. Brian Foley, Zeldin “turned angry”  when his military record came up. James LaCarrubba, Brian Foley’s top aide, said no one questions Zeldin’s service, just his demeanor. “We appreciate his service. But this is a man who wants to represent 300,000 people. And a candidate in a room full of people should be able to control his temper,” he said.

A Westchester County business group backed off supporting three Republican candidates  for state senate after some members expressed alarm over the sudden foray into partisan politics. The Business Council of Westchester offered an apology to its members and Council President and CEO Marsha Gordon, in an e-mail to members, apologized “for deviating from our tradition of being nonpartisan” and promised to return any checks.

Democratic Candidate Regina Calcaterra criticized her opponent, 34-year Republican incumbent Ken LaValle, for knowingly deceiving voters on Eastern Long Island about his support for jobs creation, saying he supported a measure to fund small businesses — after he voted to kill the legislation that created it.

The Year of the Woman Hits New York

Writing at POLITICO, Maggie Haberman profiles Democratic women challenging incumbent Republicans in the State Senate, and notes that The Year of the Woman Hits New York:

The Year of the Woman candidate has arrived in New York for the 2010 cycle, with an unprecedented slate of 10 female hopefuls vying for legislative office on the Democratic side in a state known as politically progressive but lagging at the state level.

With help from EMILY’s List over the last few years, the state Senate Democrats now have 10 women competing in districts ranging from swing-county Suffolk in Long Island to more rural areas of upstate New York.

“I think it is reflective of a larger pattern throughout the country,” said state Sen. Liz Krueger (D-Manhattan), who is the recruitment chair for the political arm of the Senate Democrats. “Women in both parties throughout the country are looking at who’s in office and saying, ‘Oh hell, I can do better than that!'”

Women make up 52% of the population in New York State. So it’s shameful that only 16% (just 10 out of 62) of our state senators are women. The slate of women candidates run by the New York Senate Dems could double the number of women serving in the state senate, and clear the way for progress on a host of issues including ethics reform and marriage equality. But what these women bring to the table goes far beyond reform and social issues that have defined past campaigns by women.

The slate of candidates looking to unseat 1/3 or the republican conference demonstrate a strong a track record of economic achievement around which they are focusing their campaigns.  These women created jobs at the county level; they increased investment in green jobs; they even took on Wall Street giants – and won.  They’re fighting not only to end the dysfunction in Albany, but to put our state back on sound economic footing

“I think what sets these women apart is they’re accomplished in their own rights and own careers and now want to turn their attentions [to government],” said state Sen. Jeff Klein, adding that those running are not being pigeonholed into campaigning on what are typically considered “women’s issues,” a fate that has befallen some other female Empire State candidates.

This election cycle, the stakes have never been higher.  Democrats hold a razor-thin, one vote majority in the State Senate.  The outcome of these races will determine how effective we are at moving a Democratic Agenda in 2011 and putting our state back on track.

As Susan Savage, the Democratic challenger to 34-year incumbent Hugh Farley, says – “We’re not going to change Albany until we change the people that we send to Albany.” With your help, these women will unseat Republican obstructionists who created Albany’s corrupt culture, help revive our economy, and give New Yorkers the government they deserve.

Below is a quick look at the New York Senate Dems class of women challengers.  Click the links for more information, or to join and contribute to their campaigns.

Susan Savage – Chair of the Schenectady County Legislature, she created thousands of jobs and brought millions in investments into the county.  She is challenging 34-year incumbent Hugh Farley in the 44th Senate District.

Joanne Yepsen – As Saratoga County Supervisor, Joanne Yepsen held down local taxes and helped local businesses. She is now challenging Joe Bruno’s hand-picked-successor, Roy McDonald, in the 43rd Senate District.

Didi Barrett – A leader in the non profit world for decades, and a strong advocate for women in New York, Didi Barrett is challenging 20-year incumbent Steve Saland in the 41st Senate District, the seat once held by FDR.

Mary Wilmot – As Regional Director for the Governor and the New York State Senate, Wilmot has extensive knowledge of the challenges Upstate New York faces, and she is determined to revitalize New York’s economy through investments in clean energy.  Wilmot is challenging 14-year incumbent James Alesi in the 55th Senate District.

Robin Wilt – As community activist, real estate agent, and small business owner, Wilt has seen first-hand the economic challenges facing Monroe County. She is the co-founder of the Genesee Valley chapter of Progressive Democrats of America, and is challenging seven-year incumbent Joe Robach.

Regina Calcaterra – A corporate fraud lawyer who took on Wall Street and won, Regina Calcaterra is now taking the fight to thirty-four-year incumbent Ken LaValle in Suffolk County’s 1st Senate District.

Kathleen Joy – Syracuse Common Counselor-At-Large and Majority Leader Kathleen Joy has a record promoting green infrastructure.  She’s now challenging 18-year incumbent, and self-described GOP “pit bull” John DeFrancisco in the 50th Senate Distirct.

Cynthia Appleton – A three-term Warsaw, Appleton has first-hand experience with the impact of Albany’s dysfunction at the local level, and is ready to clean up the capital.  She is running for the open seat vacated by retiring Republican Senator Dale Volker.

Pam Mackesey – As a union organizer, she witnessed first-hand the struggles that everyday Shuyler, Steuben, and Chemung county residents face, Pam Mackesey is determined to defeat six-year incumbent George Winner in the 53rd Senate District.

Carol Gordon – As a Mental Health Clinic Manager and Patient Advocate at the Department of Veterans Affairs, Carol Gordon served our veterans for 25 years.  Now she is challenging twelve-year incumbent Charle’s Fuschillo in the 8th Senate District.

Disclosure: I am the New York Senate Dems’ New Media Director.

Previewing Senate Elections: New York

This is the first part of a series of posts analyzing competitive Senate elections in blue states. The first part, which analyzes Illinois can be found here.

Out of the three heavily Democratic states being analyzed, Republicans probably have the least chance of winning New York. A serious Republican challenger to Senator Kristen Gillibrand has yet to emerge. Moreover, Ms. Gillibrand has proven an adept politician willing to campaign hard.

Nevertheless, in a bad national environment with low name recognition, victory for Democrats is not assured. Under the right circumstances (perhaps a Gillibrand scandal), Republicans may be able to pull off a shocker.

Previewing Senate Elections: New York

Like Illinois, New York can be divided into three sections: upstate, the suburbs downstate, and New York City. A New York Republican must win upstate and the suburbs by substantial margins – and perform extremely well in New York City.

More below.

Upstate New York

Like Illinois, the first step on the Republican road to victory lies with here. A Republican candidate must win strong margins upstate; a strong performance here is embedded with a double-digit loss.

Unfortunately for Republicans, upstate New York and downstate Illinois are not the same. Unlike Illinois, upstate New York is home to four major cities: Buffalo, Rochester, Albany, and Syracuse. In a normal election – i.e. a double-digit Democratic victory – these cities will vote Democratic, some by substantial margins.

There are several more wrinkles for a Republican candidate. Like much of the rural northeast, upstate New York has been trending Democratic. Despite the conservative national mood, Democrats last year won two special elections upstate. Moreover, Senator Kristen Gillibrand has roots there; she represented an upstate congressional district before becoming Senator.

Nevertheless, the majority of this region still votes loyally Republican; a competitive candidate can rely upon it to help counter New York City. In a close election a Republican ought to win almost every county in upstate New York.



The Suburbs Downstate

This region can be defined as the suburbs surrounding New York City: Long Island and the communities around Yonkers. A Republican’s task here is similar to that upstate: win, and win big.

Historically this was not too difficult; New York City’s suburbs regularly voted Republican, although never by enough to overcome Democratic margins in the city itself. Like many other suburbs, this changed with President Bill Clinton: since his time they have generally voted Democratic.

Today things are changing once more. Since the events of 9/11, downstate’s suburbs (especially Long Island) have been trending Republican. This was one of the few regions Senator John McCain did well in (as opposed to President Barack Obama doing poorly in); his national security credentials appealed to a number of downstate suburban voters.

A strong Republican must capitalize on this trend, changing New York’s suburbs back into Republican territory. This strength, added to margins from upstate, makes for a 5% Republican loss. Republican candidates have achieved this combination many times in the state’s electoral history. Take 1968, when President Richard Nixon lost New York by 5.46%:

Previewing Senate Elections: New York

The problem is the last 5%, to  which a Republican must look to New York City for.



New York City

To make up the last 5%, a Republican candidate must do well in New York City, that great metropolis of the United States. The Big Apple composes an astounding 43% of the state’s population, the largest proportion in the country. It also votes extremely Democratic; in 2008 four out of five voters turned the lever for President Barack Obama.

The Republican facing Ms. Gillibrand will have to substantially improve upon this number. This is not as hard as it first sounds. New York City, after all, has had a non-Democratic mayor for more than a decade. Low minority turn-out looks likely to bedevil Democrats during this off-year election. Moreover, Republicans retain a base in Staten Island and southern Brooklyn. Even in 2008 these places voted Republican:

Previewing Senate Elections: New York

(Note: Image courtesy of a very old post from jeffmd.)

Finally, some regional complexities come into play. Although almost all of New York City voted for Mr. Obama, some parts are more less loyally Democratic than others (as was the case in Massachusetts). White liberals and impoverished minorities in Manhattan and the Bronx almost never vote Republican; suburbanites in Brooklyn and Queens, on the other hand, are more perceptible to Republican appeals. Winning Republicans generally tie or win the Queens borough and hold Democrats below 60% in the Kings borough.



Conclusions

If New York is close next November, it will probably look something like this:

Previewing Senate Elections: New York

This map can indicate anything from a 5% Democratic victory to a 5% Republican victory, depending on turn-out. Perhaps the best barometer will be the Queens borough in New York City. Look to it next November – it might literally determine the fate of the Democratic Senate majority.

NY State Senate: Weekly Campaign Roundup

In an effort to keep folks in the loop about important down-ballot races here in New York, I’m going to start posting weekly roundups of all the news related to New York State Senate (#NYSen10 on Twitter) candidates.  If you want to follow these daily, visit the New York Senate Dems blog, or subscribe to our RSS feed.

If we missed anything, please include links to more news on New York State Senate campaigns in the comments.  If you’d like to donate to any of the Democratic challengers running this year, New York Senate Dems has set up an Act Blue page featuring all the challengers (no incumbents) who are registered on the site: Change Albany Now!–Mike

DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES

Empire State Pride Agenda endorsed 7 of our general election candidates.  Those who made the cut:

Mary Wilmot Challenges James Alesi on Mayoral Control.  Mayoral control of schools is a hot issue in Rochester.  Today, Democratic challenger Mary Wilmot took on her opponeent, James Alesi, for his hypocrisy on the issue and for failing Rochester’s school children.

Mike Kaplowitz signed all five of the major reform packages meant to clean up Albany yesterday, in an effort to fix state government and help New York’s economy. He signed all of them – the Pledge for Change, Call to Action, Enough Already NY, New NY Agenda and NY Uprising – at a news conference in Bailey Park in Somers. “I’m calling it a plan for reform. The stakes are high but the time is now,” said Kaplowitz.

Sen. Oppenheimer became the latest Democratic candidate to sign on to New York Uprising’s reform pledge yesterday. “New York Uprising has brought together the critical reforms needed in New York State, which I have long supported and sponsored. By securing commitments from candidates now, it is my hope that we will have the momentum to make these reforms a reality in 2011,” said Sen. Oppenheimer.

Newsday profiled this year’s Senate races on Long Island (subscription required).  Long Island is a competitive battleground in this year’s campaign to expand our majority in the senate. Mentioned as the most vulnerable Republicans were  34-year incumbent Ken LaValle, who is being challenged by Regina Calcaterra, and 21-year incumbent Kemp Hannon, who is being challenged by Dave Mejias.

Speaking of Regina Calcaterra, she received a glowing write up in the local press.  T.J. Clemente, lauded her as a “young gifted fighter with energy and ideals.” He also added: “There are forces at work when she speaks. Every word about this election seems to bring up a passion seen only in individuals with a singularity of purpose.”

Susan Savage stood  with nurses in demanding fair contractSavage, running against 34-year Republican incumbent Hugh Farley,  walked a picket line with nurses in her district who are seeking a new contract. The nurses are asking for, and have so far been denied, a combination of fair wages, health care benefits, and nursing ratios.

Democratic incumbent Craig Johnson received the support of Mayor Michael Bloomberg  –  Mayor Bloomberg is lending his name to a fundraiser next Monday to support Sen. Johnson.  Mayor Bloomberg had pledged to help legislators who lead on issues of great importance to him. Charter schools are such an issue for the Mayor, and Sen. Johnson has been a fierce proponent of charter schools at the state level.  This is a departure for Bloomberg, who is typically one of the NY SRCC’s largest donors.

David Carlucci received a major endorsement from Congressman Eliot Engel, who said: “David Carlucci and I have worked together for years, and because of that relationship, I know firsthand that he is the right person to represent the people of his district in the State Senate.  David has demonstrated his commitment to making government work for the people as Town Clerk of Clarkstown.”

Michael Steele and RNC decided to dumping cash in Didi Barret’s district. Barrett is running against Republican Stephen Saland. The  national GOP has recently announced it will be funneling cash for local elections directly to county leaders in New York. One of the first areas to receive RNC dollars will be Dutchess county, which includes 80% of SD-41, where Barrett is running against Republican Stephen Saland.

REPUBLICANS

In an  extensive look inside the NY SRCC, The Capitol described a “shoe-string operation” defined by disarray and despair.  Just a few of the myriad of problems for the Senate GOP that the piece identified: special-interest money that once flowed has dried to a trickle, old allies have fled , and the Independence Party (which strongly backed Senate Republicans both with its ballot line and financial resources in 2008) has undergone a fundamental shift in philosophy and will support Senate candidates from both sides of the aisle this year.

The New York Observer questioned SRCC chair Tom Libous’ ties to political turncoat Carl Paladino, calling it “somewhat odd that Libous would appear alongside [Carl] Paladino, since Rick Lazio is now the GOP’s gubernatorial designee, and Paladino is threatening to run on a third party line.”

In the GOP primary to decide who will challenge Democratic incumbent Dave Valesky, home-town favorite Danny Liedka looks to get shut out by SRCC-backed concert pianist Andrew Russo (yes, you read that right).  According to the Auburn Pub, Liedka raised $48k and has just $5k cash-on-hand. Russo is reported to have raised 4 times that number.

Greg Ball, Tea Party candidate and potential opponent to Mike Kaplowitz for the 40th SD seat vacated by Vincent Leibell was accused of groping a waitress during “a rowdy night at an Albany bar.”

NY State Senate: Meet the Candidates

As we rapidly approach the July 15th filing deadline here in New York, the biggest hurdle I find for our candidates is that not enough of New York’s voters and activists know who they are, the dynamics of the race, or how great a chance we have in 2010 to pick up more seats and secure our fragile majority in the State Senate.  

Despite all the attention lavished on Cuomo, the AG race, or the budget, the State Senate looks to be where the action is in New York politics this year, and news for Democrats so far is good.  Voter registration is trending in our favor, poll after poll shows voter dissatisfaction is directed primarily at GOP incumbents, and a recent story in The Capitol revealed the state SRCC to be in disarray.

In short, this could be a very good year for Democratic challengers hoping to unseat Republican State Senators.

But to win in November, these candidates need resources.  They need volunteers to knock on doors and make phone calls, and money to hire staff, print lit, and cut ads.  Before any of that can be achieved though, politically engaged New Yorkers need to know who are candidates are, and why they are running.  

So I’ve compiled a list of 15 campaigns that the New York Senate Dems are supporting in 2010.  I hope the community will take the time to get to know these candidates, and if you like what you read, donate a few dollars before we hit the filing deadline (July 11 is the last day to give), or visit their websites and sign up for their email updates.  

I know many people are frustrated with Albany, but if we want to see progress – on ethics reform, marriage equality, green jobs and a host of other issues – the first step is expanding the Democratic majority and evicting Republican Senators standing in the way of progress.  The campaigns below could be the votes we need to push these issues through the chamber an onto the Governor’s desk.

NEW YORK SENATE DEMS CLASS OF 2010

Regina Calcaterra (Suffolk County) After growing up in Suffolk County in poverty and foster care with her four siblings, Regina Calcaterra worked hard to put herself through college and law school. As a corporate fraud lawyer, she successfully represented the pension funds of police, firefighters, and teachers, all of which suffered drastic losses due to Wall Street fraud.

While working for the NYC Comptroller, Regina strengthened the enforcement of labor laws, and advocated for laws that increased the assets of state pension funds and the city treasury while decreasing taxpayer contributions. She is a strong proponent of government reform and fiscal responsibility, including toughening of accounting standards throughout New York agencies and authorities, rescission of numerous taxes and fees, and fair share of government services for Eastern Long Island.

Her opponent is 34-year incumbent Ken LaValle.  The district (SD-1)has a Republican enrollment advantage, but it is rapidly trending Democratic and Democrats have done well up and down the ticket in recent elections.

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Dave Mejias (Nassau County)  David Mejias has dedicated his life to fighting for the people of Nassau County. In 2003, Mejias was elected to the Nassau County legislature where he voted for budgets that resulted in a no tax increases for residents and improved bond ratings for the county. He was reelected to the legislature in 2005, and in 2006 he ran for Congress against Peter King. Despite being defeated, Mejias gave Peter King the toughest challenge since King’s first election in 1992. As a life-long resident of Nassau County, Mejias understands that taxpayers on Long Island want an affordable place to call home and a government that works. As Senator, Mejias will continue his service to Nassau and bring a fresh, strong voice to Albany.

Dave’s opponent is 21-year incumbent Kemp Hannon. The district (SD-6) flipped from a GOP to Democratic registration advantage in 2009, though down-ballot Republicans still outperformed Democrats in recent years.

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Carol Gordon (Nassau, Suffolk Counties) As a Mental Health Clinic Manager and Patient Advocate at the Department of Veterans Affairs, Carol Gordon served our veterans for 25 years. In this role, Carol developed a strong commitment to American Veterans and initiated sustainable support programs, including championing an effort to have the first women veterans admitted to an all male unit. She was active on the Ethics, Family Council, and various veterans committees, and also served as manager of the Federal Women’s Program for 22 Years. In 2008, Carol became a member of the National Organization of Women and the Chairperson of the mentoring and education committee for Urban Financial Services Coalition of Long Island, an organization that promotes financial literacy.

Her opponent is 12-year incumbent Charles Fuschillo, and the district (SD-8) recently shifted from a GOP enrollment advantage to a slim Democratic advantage.

George Sava (Nassau County) George Sava has recognized the need for real leadership in Nassau County. After years of inaction by Dean Skelos, Sava is running for Senate to reverse the decades of tax-hikes that have led Nassau County to be one of the most highly taxed counties in the country. While maintaining his private law practice, Sava served in the military for over nine years. He is a veteran of Operation Enduring Freedom, and in 2004 he was deployed to the Horn of Africa. A former Republican, Sava became disillusion with the GOP’s continual contradictions, tax-hikes and dysfunction. As a husband and the father of three young children residing in Woodmere, George is running for the families in Nassau County that are finding themselves priced out of Long Island.

His opponent is Republican Senate Minority Leader Dean Skelos.  Like other Western Long Island districts, SD-9 recently flipped from a GOP to Democratic enrollment advantage.

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Tony Avella (Queens County) Tony Avella has dedicated his life to fighting for middle-class families. In 2001, Tony won election to the New York City Council in the 19th District – Northeast Queens and was reelected with an overwhelming majority in both the 2003 and 2005 elections. As a member of the City Council, Tony refused the “lulu;” an unethical and additional taxpayer funded salary increase in return for loyalty to council leadership instead of taxpayers. Tony fought against and subsequently refused the 25% City Council pay raise, which he considered unethical.  In 2008, Tony ran in the Democratic Mayoral primary in New York City against Bill Thompson, who has since endorsed Tony’s run for state senate.  

Fed up with the pay-to-play status quo and political special interests that have consumed Albany, Tony’s reputation as a staunch reformist will help to bring real change to Albany. A strong advocate for more reform and transparency in government, Tony will fight to transform the State Senate so that it works for the people once again.

Tony’s opponent is 38-year incumbent Frank Padavan.  The district is heavily Democratic and Padavan held onto his seat by only a few hundred votes in 2008 against a underfunded Democratic opponent.

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Mike Kaplowitz (Westchester, Putnam, Dutchess Counties) Mike Kaplowitz is a Westchester County Legislator and small business owner with a history of political independence and a record of smart fiscal management. As a county legislator, he saved over $110 million dollars in wasteful spending, and helped preserve Westchester County’s AAA bond rating, saving the county millions more in higher interest costs. As a Senator, Mike Kaplowitz will work to help small businesses, create jobs, fight to put caps on property taxes and to restore and strengthen the STAR program.

Kaplowitz is running for an open seat being vacated by Republican Vincent Leibell (SD-40). The district has a Democratic enrollment advantage, and his most likely opponent will be Tea Party candidate Greg Ball.

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Didi Barrett (Dutchess, Columbia Counties) Didi Barrett, a citizen candidate, has been a leader in the not-for-profit community for more than two decades. She is a board member of the North East Dutchess Fund and the Millbrook Education Foundation; she was the founder of Girls Inc of New York and is spearheading the development of the new Dutchess Girls Collaborative. She has served on the boards of the NY Women’s Foundation, the Women’s Campaign Fund, NARAL-NY, Planned Parenthood NY and the American Folk Art Museum. For the last two years, she has been the coordinator for her town’s Community Day.

As a State Senator, Didi Barrett will use her skills as a creative problem solver to bring jobs to the 41st District and alleviate property tax burdens for all New Yorkers. She will work to reform Albany’s dysfunctional culture.

Her opponent is 20-year incumbent Steve Saland.  The district (SD-41) has a Democratic enrollment advantage, but down ballot results have been mixed in recent elections.

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Joanne Yepsen (Saratoga, Rensselaer Counties) A Saratoga County Supervisor, Yepsen has helped keep Saratoga the lowest taxed county in the state of New York. She is committed to a zero-tolerance policy for party politics that get in the way of open, honest, efficient government. She has been re-elected County Supervisor three times on a proven record of integrity that focuses on the issues and needs of the individuals, families and businesses she represents.

Her opponent is Joe Bruno’s hand-picked successor in a district with the largest share of independent voters in the state.

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Susan Savage (Schenectady, Montgomery, Fulton, Saratoga Counties) Since she became Schenectady County Legislative Chair, Susan Savage restructured and streamlined county economic development. She helped bring $400 million and created 3300 jobs. Her efforts have led to a revitalized downtown Schenectady and expanded suburban industrial parks in Rotterdam and Glenville. Savage’s new perspective also fostered cooperation between county and local government, saving taxpayer money. Her approach and success have resulted in a resurgent economy that is a model in upstate New York. Now, Savage is ready to bring her new perspective and new ideas to Albany.

Her opponent is 34-year incumbent Hugh Farley, and the district (SD-44) has a shrinking Republican enrollment advantage.

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Kathleen Joy (Onondaga County) As Syracuse Common Counsel-At-Large and Majority Leader Kathleen Joy has a history of working across the aisle to get things done for her community is challenging.  As a Councilor, she has sponsored legislation to promote green infrastructure, building standards and open space, and she also initiated many of the housing programs embraced by the Syracuse City Administration and adopted by the Common Council.  In addition to her civic work, Joy is a real estate attorney and small business owner who has helped many first time homeowners fulfill their dreams of home ownership.

Her opponent is 18-year incumbent and self-described “GOP Pitbull” John DeFrancisco.  Democratic and GOP enrollment in the district (SD-50)is at parity, and Democrats have edged out some down-ballot wins in recent years.

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Pamela Mackesey (Streuben, Yates, Schuyler, Chemung, Tompkins Counties) Pam Mackesey is running for State Senate because she is fed up with high taxes, continual budget deficits, and the dysfunction in Albany. As a union organizer, she witnessed first-hand the struggles that everyday Shuyler, Steuben, and Chemung county residents face. As a single parent, she raised her daughter while working two, sometimes three jobs. Serving on Ithaca’s Common Council for 6 years and currently fulfilling her second term on the Tompkins County Legislature, Pam is prepared to go to Albany to work hard for her constituents and change the way business is done.

Her opponent is six-year incumbent George Winner.  The District (SD-53) has a sizeable Republican enrollment advantage.

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Mary Wilmot (Monroe County) Mary Wilmot is a life-long resident of Monroe County who brings a strong family background of service to District 55. As Regional Director for the Governor and the New York State Senate, Wilmot has extensive knowledge of the challenges Upstate New York faces. Drawing on her experience in this role, she understands the need to rein in excessive government spending and high taxes in order to preserve our local economies. As a mother and working parent, Wilmot is also committed to revitalizing our upstate community job markets. Mary will bring her passion for the environment to the Senate, championing investment in clean energy alternatives and energy conservation that will bring new industries to New York and create good jobs in Monroe County.

Her opponent is 14-year incumbent James Alesi.  The district (SD-55)has a slim Democratic enrollment advantage and Democrats have generally won up and down the ballot in recent years.

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Robin Wilt (Monroe County) Robin Wilt brings a long-standing commitment to progressive causes to Monroe County. As community activist, real estate agent, and small business owner, Wilt has seen first-hand the economic challenges facing Monroe County. In 2008, Robin co-founded the Genesee Valley chapter of Progressive Democrats of America, a grassroots organization dedicated to working inside and outside the Democratic Party to advance progressive causes. As Senator, she will work tirelessly for the people of Monroe and champion a return to good government, good jobs and good leadership.

Her opponent is seven-year incumbent Joe Robach.

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Cynthia Appleton (Erie, Wyoming, Livingston, Ontario Counties)  Cynthia Appleton is a long-time community leader who is now stepping up to help us in Albany. She has spent 35 years in health care, the last 24 years as a critical care nurse. A lifelong resident of Wyoming County, her family roots in dairy farming and small business in western New York go back over a century. Now in her third term as a Village Trustee in Warsaw, Appleton has the experience to understand the impact Albany has on the local level and what needs to be done. A wife and mom, Appleton is also an award-winning director and actor in local theater and a member of Warsaw Grange 1088, the Warsaw Chamber of Commerce, and many other groups.

Cynthia is running for the seat being vacated by retiring GOP Senator Dale Volker.

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Marc Coppola (Erie, Genesee Counties)  As a former State Senator in the 60th District, and former Majority Leader of the Common Council of the City of Buffalo, Marc Coppola brings a wealth of legislative experience to his campaign. As Majority Leader of the Common Council, he made tough decisions and cut the council budget by 33%. His campaign for State Senate is a direct response to Senator Ranzenhofer’s failure to look beyond partisanship and work to address the economic challenges facing New York, and the needs of residents of Erie and Genesee Counties.

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Disclosure – I am the New Media Director for the New York Senate Dems.

NY-Sen: Conservative Chaos

Last Thursday, just one day after New York Republicans selected Rick Lazio as their official nominee for Governor, the state’s GOP convention produced some mixed results in the U.S. Senate race to challenge Kirsten Gillibrand. Unable to settle upon one candidate, both Bruce Blakeman and David Malpass will compete in a September primary for the GOP nomination. Joe DioGuardi, the third candidate, failed to garner the support necessary to make that primary ballot.

There’s only one problem. DioGuardi, no matter what happens on the GOP side, already has a guaranteed slot on the November ballot. Huh?

New York’s Conservative Party, the right-wing gang originally designed to create hell for liberal Republican Nelson Rockefellar way back when, has already given DioGuardi its ballot line for the Senate race, provoking all sorts of vote-splitting horrors for Republicans statewide.

After all, just rewind back to that fascinating race up in NY-23, where liberal Republican Dede Scozzafava, once considered the overwhelming front-runner, was bombarded by the Conservative nominee, uber-right-winger Doug Hoffman. Hoffman, a political arsonist at its worst, damaged Scozzafava so horribly among the district’s Republicans that she dropped out of the race at the 11-o-clock hour. For Hoffman, however, it was an exercise to nowhere, as Democrat Bill Owens used the obnoxious Hoffman/Scozzafava showdown to his benefit, claiming victory as the one normal, likable candidate in the race.

For New York Republicans, such a scenario on a statewide level would be the nightmare from hell.

My suspicion is, however, DioGuardi, the fmr. Westchester Congressman, doesn’t have the money or excitement to make a real dent in this race. He’s so dull and washed-up, he makes Rick Lazio look fun, and I think most conservatives will make a valiant effort to rally around either Blakeman, the fmr. Port Authority Commissioner, or Malpass, the fmr. Reagan advisor. Both men are moderate Republicans, but not quite as liberal or RINO-y as Scozzafava, plus many state GOP-ers are salivating at the notion that Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand might be a bit vulnerable when it comes to the general.

I do think this race is in the Likely Dem column, perhaps even Safe Dem, with Gillibrand consolidating the vast majority of Democrats and probably performing quite well among Independents too. Even if she doesn’t succeed among the latter, the overwhelming Dem registration should keep her in safe territory. I imagine we’re looking at a voter model which mirrors something like…

Democrat – 46%

Republican – 27%

Independent – 27%

Gillibrand – 93%/7%/55% = 60%

Blakeman/Malpass – 7%/83%/40% = 36%

DioGuardi – 0%/10%/5% = 4%

For Republicans, I suspect a best-case-scenario “dream model” would look something like…

Democrat – 45%

Republican – 30%

Independent – 25%

Gillibrand – 85%/3%/43% = 50%

Blakeman/Malpass – 15%/93%/55% = 48%

DioGuardi – 0%/4%/2% = 2%

In this (highly-unlikely) scenario, Gillibrand bleeds conservative Dems and many moderate Independents to the GOP ticket, while DioGuardi implodes, failing to gain any real traction among the far-right who might be weary about Blakeman or Malpass. Even so, Gillibrand still eeks out a win.

http://polibeast.blogspot.com/…