Tag: PA-11

If there was any doubt that Democrat Paul Kanjorski was facing a difficult re-election this year, it should be erased now:

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has purchased ad time in Pennsylvania’s 11th Congressional District targeting Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta, the Republican challenger who is looking to unseat Democratic Rep. Paul Kanjorski. […]

The DCCC ad in Pennsylvania ties Barletta to President George W. Bush, stating that Bush has a friend in Pennsylvania in the Republican challenger. It begins running on Scranton-area television stations on Tuesday and is scheduled to stay up for several weeks.

A DCCC official confirms the ad was shipped to stations in Pennsylvania today and will begin airing tomorrow.

Kanjorski has already gone up on the airwaves early last month, in a move that signaled his concern with Barletta’s challenge. Evidently, the DCCC has seen numbers that show Kanjorski, a 12-term incumbent, in danger this year, and are moving to cut Barletta off at the pass.

There’s no word yet on the size of the DCCC’s buy, but this is a noteworthy expenditure. Kanjorski has not engaged the campaign particularly gracefully, and despite the big advantages that Democrats enjoy across the country, perhaps the atmosphere is there for Barletta to turn this race into a populist revolt against D.C. incumbency. It looks like the DCCC is trying to change the narrative before Barletta can catch on.

SSP currently rates this race as “Likely Democratic“.

About a week ago, anti-immigrant fanatic Lou Barletta jumped into the race against Dem Rep. Paul Kanjorski in PA-11. Barletta is the Republican mayor of Hazelton, PA and is best known for pushing his city to adopt a measure which “sought to deny business permits to companies that employ illegal immigrants, fine landlords who rent to them and require tenants to register and pay for a rental permit.” It was later found unconstitutional.

This, of course, has made Barletta immensely popular among winger circles, and David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report says that GOPers are “justifiably encouraged” by his entry into the race. Consequently, he’s moved his rating on the race from Safe Dem to Likely Dem. This still makes Kanjorski the overwhelming favorite, but it suggests that this seat might be in play.

While bluish, PA-11 is not rock-solid Dem territory – it has a PVI of D+5.5. However, Kanjorski has $1.5 million on hand, and he thumped Barletta by 13 points the last time the two faced off in 2002. (You’ll recall that was not an especially good Democratic year.)

Barletta is definitely swimming against the tide, with the economy teetering and voter disgust about the war in Iraq unchanged. But could being a one-issue candidate somehow play to his advantage? Can his anti-immigrant obsession tap into fears about the economy and push all other issues to the side? Without knowing a lot more about the particulars of this district, I just can’t say.

But SSPers, what say you? Does Barletta have any kidn of shot? Is Wasserman’s rating change justified? What’s this district like? Tell us.

It looks as if Republicans finally got the candidate they wanted to run against Paul Kanjorski in PA-11, the right wing mayor of Hazleton, Lou Barletta.  Barletta is known as the guy who as mayor passed all kinds of anti-immigrant measures.  He ran for Congress against Kanjorski in 2002 and lost by 14%.  

This is a district that John Kerry carried by a healthy 53%-47% margin and Al Gore carried it by an even bigger 54%-43%.  The Republican legislature drew the district to be a safe Democratic district in order to make PA-10 and PA-15 more Republican.  They did this by removing heavily Republican rural areas and adding in a heavily Democratic slice of Lackawanna county.

I have to say that I am somewhat frustrated that more Democratic held seats seem to be coming into play.  If we were to lose seats in 2008 while winning the White House, it would be a big black eye for the new Democratic President elect, likely making it impossible to pass anything.  We need to keep this seat and all we need to do to keep it is make sure voters in the district vote straight ticket as this is a district that any Democratic candidate for President will carry.