Tag: NC-Gov

(From the diaries.  I wouldn’t go so far as to call MO-GOV a “safe Democratic pickup” just yet, though. – promoted by James L.)

Cross-posted from Election Inspection, here are the latest Governor polls:

State	Incumbent	Poll	Dem Candidate	%	Rep Candidate	%
IN	Daniels	Research 2000 4/21-4/24	Jill Long Thompson	45	Mitch Daniels	45
MO	Blunt	SUSA 5/16-5/18	Jay Nixon	57	Kenny Hulshof	33
MO	Blunt	SUSA 5/16-5/18	Jay Nixon	58	Sarah Steelman	33
MT	Schweitzer	Mason-Dixon 5/19-5/21	Brian Schweitzer	55	Roy Brown	30
NC	Easley	SUSA 5/17-5/19	Bev Perdue	52	Pat McCrory	45
UT	Huntsman	Dan Jones & Assoc. 5/13-5/19	Bob Springmeyer	13	Jon Huntsman	77
WA	Gregoire	Rasmussen 5/12	Christine Gregoire	52	Dino Rossi	41

Thus far, Missouri looks to be a Safe Democratic pickup, while Indiana is a toss-up. Vermont is currently unpolled, but State Speaker of the House Gaye Symington (D-VT) could make the race against incumbent GOP Gov. Jim Douglas a competitive one. North Carolina and Washington look like likely Democratic retentions so far. I don’t expect Utah, North Dakota, West Virginia, Montana, or New Hampshire to become competitive, and the only question in Delaware is which Democrat will win the primary.

SurveyUSA (5/17-19, likely voters):

Beverly Perdue (D): 52

Pat McCrory (R): 45

(MoE: ±3.7%)

I’m not sure about the Republican side, but Perdue just came out of a contentious Democratic primary that saw a fair share of negative advertising, so this is a pretty decent place to start the race at.

NC-Sen (D):

96 of 100 Counties Reporting

Candidate	Votes	Percent
Kay Hagan	803,121	60.32
Jim Neal	240,705	18.08

NC-Gov (D):

96 of 100 Counties Reporting

Candidate	Votes	Percent
Beverly Perdue	835,639	55.92
Richard Moore	594,725	39.90

NC-Gov (R):

96 of 100 Counties Reporting

Candidate	Votes	Percent
Fred Smith	185,817	36.95
Pat McCrory	232,173	46.17

NC-03 (R):

17 of 17 Counties Reporting

Candidate	Votes	Percent
Walter Jones	22,703	59.52
Joe McLaughlin	15,441	40.48

NC-10 (R):

9 of 10 Counties Reporting

Candidate	Votes	Percent
Patrick McHenry	33,020	66.51
Lance Sigmon	16,624	33.49

RESULTS: NC SBE

9:25PM: McCrory is pulling away from Smith for the Gov nod — 47 to 37.

9:22PM: Neal sure got whipped tonight.

8:00PM Eastern: Deliciously mediocre early numbers for McHenry. I don’t want to speak too soon, but this race could be worth watching in the fall — the Democratic candidate, veteran and hero Daniel Johnson, has raised a strong amount of cash so far.

Polls close in Indiana at 6pm Eastern and in North Carolina at 7:30pm Eastern (although some metropolitan areas may keep their polls open until 8:30), so there’s still plenty of time to post your predictions for tonight’s contests.

We ran through the races worth watching in these two states last week, but the contests that we’ll be following are:

IN-Gov (D): Jill Long Thompson v. Jim Schellinger

IN-07 (D): Andre Carson v. Woody Myers (and others)

NC-Sen (D): Kay Hagan v. Jim Neal

NC-Gov (D & R): Beverly Perdue v. Richard Moore; Fred Smith v. Pat McCrory (and others)

NC-03 (R): Walter Jones v. Joe McLaughlin

NC-10 (R): Patrick McHenry v. Lance Sigmon

Feel free to post your predictions for these races in the comments.  Oh, and if you insist, you can give your presidential guesses as well.  Have at it.

NC-Sen (D) by SurveyUSA (5/2-4, likely and actual voters, 4/29 in parens):

Kay Hagan (D): 43 (38)

Jim Neal (D): 18 (17)

Others: 13 (10)

Other/Undecided: 27 (35)

(MoE: ± 3.5%)

NC-Gov (D):

Beverly Purdue (D): 52 (45)

Richard Moore (D): 33 (36)

Dennis Nielsen: 2 (2)

Other/Undecided: 13 (16)

(MoE: ± 3.5%)

NC-Gov (R):

Pat McCrory (R): 38 (36)

Fred Smith (R): 32 (32)

Bob Orr (R): 9 (7)

Bill Graham (R): 8 (5)

Undecided: 12 (20)

(MoE: ± 4.9%)

Hagan and Perdue are poised to deliver blow-outs.  McCrory vs. Smith is the only race in doubt here.

May is going to be an exciting month for political junkies.  We’ve got a cornucopia of races to watch this month: two special elections, and a number of competitive House, Senate and Gubernatorial primaries.

Let’s take a look at the month ahead:

May 3: This Saturday, Louisiana voters will head to the polls in two congressional special elections:  

• LA-06: Democratic state Rep. Don Cazayoux will square off with “newspaper editor” Woody Jenkins to fill the open seat of ex-Rep. Richard Baker.  In this hotly contested race, Democrats have been blessed with the better candidate, stellar fundraising, and favorable polls.  However, the NRCC and their allies have dumped hundreds of thousands of dollars on ads painting Cazayoux as a serial tax raiser and a Barack Obama disciple.

  We’ll find out on Saturday night if any of these attacks have made an impact.  The most recent poll, though, shows Cazayoux with a nine point lead.  SSP will be liveblogging the results, so be sure to check with us then.  There will also be a special election to replace Bobby Jindal in LA-01, but this one should be a solid lock for the GOP.

May 6: While the eyes of the nation will be fixed on the Indiana and North Carolina presidential primaries, voters in these states will also be deciding a number of other hotly-contested primaries:

• IN-Gov (D): Indianapolis architect Jim Schellinger will square off with former U.S. Rep. Jill Long Thompson for the Democratic nod against Mitch Daniels.  Schellinger’s had a big fundraising edge, but the polls here have generally been tight, with an edge for Thompson.  This one could be close.
• IN-07 (D): Despite winning a March special election to fill the vacant seat created by his grandmother’s passing, Rep. Andre Carson faces a competitive primary for the Democratic slot on the November ballot.  His strongest rival is former state Health Commissioner Woody Myers, who has lent his campaign a substantial amount of money.  State Reps. David Orentlicher and Carolene Mays will also be on the ballot.
• NC-Gov: Democrats will decide a contentious primary between Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue and State Treasurer Richard Moore for the gubernatorial nomination.  Perdue has had the advantage in nearly all of SurveyUSA’s tracking polls here.

  Republicans will also decide a primary for this office between Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory and state Sen. Fred Smith (plus two also-rans).  In the most recent SUSA poll, Smith was only four points behind the front-runner McCrory.

• NC-Sen (D): State Senator Kay Hagan and businessman Jim Neal will face off for the Democratic nomination to challenge GOP Sen. Elizabeth Dole.  While this contest was effectively tied for a while, Hagan’s large fundraising edge on Neal has been enough to buy her a 20-point lead in the latest poll.
• NC-03 (R): For a while, it looked like this primary might have been as heated as Andy Harris’ successful overthrow of anti-war moderate GOP Rep. Wayne Gilchrest in Maryland.  But Onslow County Commissioner Joe McLaughlin’s campaign against Rep. Walter Jones hasn’t gotten a lot of fundraising traction.  It will still be worth watching to see just how tolerant GOP primary voters will be of Jones’ anti-war stance.
• NC-10 (R): While I don’t expect Air Force vet Lance Sigmon to topple the odious Patrick McHenry in the GOP primary, his campaign drew a fair bit of attention for his aggressive attacks on McHenry’s antics in Iraq (calling a security worker a “two-bit security guard”, and compromising troop safety by posting a video of an attack in the Green Zone).  Democrats have a strong candidate against McHenry for the November election — veteran and hero Daniel Johnson — so Sigmon’s showing might give us a good reading on how damaging McHenry’s behavior has been to his re-election chances in this R+15 district.

May 13: Another huge day for political watchers, with hot races in Mississippi and Nebraska.

• MS-01: The big event.  Democratic Prentiss County Chancery Clerk Travis Childers has waged a startlingly strong campaign for the open seat left behind earlier this year when Roger Wicker was appointed to the Senate.  Despite running in an R+10 district and being at a financial disadvantage, Childers edged GOP candidate and Southaven Mayor Greg Davis by a 49%-46% margin in the April 22 special primary election.  Davis and the NRCC have fought back hard, trying to tie Childers to Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama.  But the DCCC is playing to win, and they’ve invested a whopping $1.1 million in this race.  This one should be close.
• NE-Sen (D): Here’s something rare — a Democratic primary for a statewide office in Nebraska.  Businessman and former Republican Tony Raimondo will compete with former congressional candidate Scott Kleeb for the Democratic nod against the Republican front-runner, Mike Johanns.
• NE-02 (D): GOP Rep. Lee Terry had a surprisingly close re-election campaign in 2006, winning his district by less than 10 points against political neophyte Jim Esch.  Now, Esch is back for a rematch, but will first meet with Iraq War vet Richard Carter for the Democratic nomination.  Between Esch’s name recognition and Carter’s weak fundraising, Esch is in a good position to win here.

May 20: There are four primaries in Kentucky and Oregon worth keeping an eye on.

• KY-Sen (D): Former gubernatorial candidate and businessman Bruce Lunsford and businessman Greg Fischer will face off against a slew of also-rans for the Democratic nomination against GOP obstructionist-in-chief Mitch McConnell.  Lunsford has never been able to win a Democratic primary, but this might be his chance.  Polls have shown him with a large lead against Fischer, whose campaign has yet to catch fire.
• KY-02 (D): Democrats will go to the polls to decide between state Sen. David Boswell and Daviess County Judge-Executive Reid Haire for the Democratic nomination to contest this open seat left behind by the retiring Rep. Ron Lewis.  Boswell was seen as the early front-runner, but his fundraising has been extremely sluggish ($30K to Haire’s $200K in the first quarter).  Still, Boswell might have a chance based on name recognition alone.
• OR-Sen (D): Another big event, with state House Speaker Jeff Merkley and activist Steve Novick competing for the Democratic nomination against Gordon Smith.  Novick has kept this a competitive race, airing quirky ads and winning several key newspaper endorsements.
• OR-05: With the retirement of Rep. Darlene Hooley (D), there are tight primary contests on both sides to succeed her.  Democrats will pick between former Gov. Kitzhaber aide Steve Marks and state Sen. Kurt Schrader.  Marks has picked up the larger share of endorsements so far, while Schrader appears to be the DCCC’s preferred candidate. (Update: As Kari notes in the comments, my statement about endorsements here is a bit off the mark.  Schrader’s been no slouch in this department at all.  My mistake!)

  On the GOP side, voters will choose between ’06 nominee and businessman Mike Erickson and former Gov. candidate Kevin Mannix.

There you have it.  May will be a month chock full of races worth watching.  SSP will aim to liveblog as many of these races as we can when the results come in.

SurveyUSA polls the Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate race (likely primary voters, 4/5-7, 3/8-10 in parens):

Kay Hagan (D): 21% (18%)

Jim Neal (D): 20% (21%)

Duskin Lassiter: 6% (6%)

Marcus Williams: 5% (7%)

Howard Staley: 4% (4%)

Other/Undecided: 45% (44%)

(MoE: ±3.7%)

Nothing terribly revealing here — primary voters are unfamiliar with both Hagan and Neal, but one would expect these numbers to settle out once the candidates ramp up their advertising efforts with four weeks to go until primary day.

Next up, NC-Gov (D):

Richard Moore (D): 40% (28%)

Beverly Perdue (D): 40% (44%)

Dennis Nielsen (D): 3% (3%)

Other/Undecided: 17% (25%)

(MoE: ±3.7%)

Finally, NC-Gov (R):

Bill Graham (R): 9% (16%)

Bob Orr (R): 10% (12%)

Pat McCrory (R): 38% (26%)

Fred Smith (R): 19% (18%)

Undecided: 25% (28%)

(MoE: ±5%)

If the Democratic race here is neck-and-neck between state Treasurer Richard Moore and Lt. Gov. Beverly Purdue, Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory looks like the prohibitive favorite for the GOP nod.

Rasmussen is showing some good news for Democrats in North Carolina – both Richard Moore and Beverly Purdue are leading Republican Pat McCrory by 4-5%.

North Carolina Gubernatorial Election
Richard Moore (D)	39%
Pat McCrory (R)	34%

North Carolina Gubernatorial Election
Beverly Perdue (D)	42%
Pat McCrory (R)	38%

This shows improvement over December’s poll:

In December, McCrory on top in both match-ups by an identical 42% to 39% margin. That survey was conducted prior to McCrory’s official announcement to run in the election.

Anyone here know how reapportionment works in North Carolina? If we maintain our hold on the Governor’s mansion and the state legislature, can we squeeze an advantage here after the 2010 Census?