OR-5 – Swing State Project

Blue Tsunami in Oregon: Election Winners, Losers and Numbers

This is the diary I had hoped to be able to write Wednesday, but with the closeness of the Smith-Merkley US Senate race was happy enough to write a diary talking about the reasons why Merkley would win, as he indeed has. This diary serves as my review of the Oregon campaign, in what can, without a doubt, be described as the best cycle for Oregon Democrats and other progressive organizations in my lifetime. All of our goals were met and we beat back every single bad ballot measure to boot.

Cross-Posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/sh…

The Election by the Numbers:

Note: These numbers are still not completely final due to the delay in counting ballots in some counties (which was due to the extra-long ballot necessitated by the high number of ballot measures among other factors).

Total Number of Oregonians Who Voted: 1.835 million or 84%.

Highest Turnout County by %: Wallowa-90%.

Lowest Turnout County by %: Umatilla-79%.

Number of Counties won by Kerry (who won by 5%): 8.

Number of Counties won by Obama: 12.

Obama’s Margin of Victory (which will go higher as the last urban ballots are counted): 16%.

Number of Oregon House Seats Won by the Democrats: 36 (+5).

Number of Oregon House Seats Won by the Republicans in Multnomah County: 0.

Number of Oregon House Seats Won by the Republicans in either the Eugene or Portland metro areas: 3, all in outer Portland suburbs.

Number of Ballot Measures Proposed by groups other than the legislature: 8.

Number of them that passed: 0 (All 4 of the Legislature’s measures passed).

How did I do?:

My final projections were pretty well spot on in most cases this year. Here is my record:

Statewide and Congressional Campaigns: 100%, I correctly called every single one, although to be honest except for Smith/Merkley none were close.

Ballot Measures: 11/12 correct, I thought Measure 61 would pass but with less votes than Measure 57, and it actually failed outright. I thought Measure 65 would be a lot closer than it was (it lost by about 2-1).

State Legislature: Senate 3/3, House 16/18. I missed 2 house races, both of which were very close. I projected that Adamson and Eberle would win and neither did. Forsberg appears headed to a narrow defeat as well, which is unfortunately predicted.

Overall I think I did rather well this year as I nailed virtually every prediction and the ones I missed I didn’t miss by much.

Winners/Losers and Awards:

The final section of this diary is my favorite as I have a bit of fun with the election results and who won and lost as well as hand out some awards.

Big Winners/Losers:

Winner: Barack Obama. Carrying the state by near-record margins, Obama led the Oregon Democrats to perhaps their best results ever. Oh and this ad may have put Merkley over the top:

Loser: John McCain. He never contested the state and it was apparent why. McCain suffered perhaps the worst defeat ever for a major party candidate in the state, certainly the worst since the 1960s.

Winner: Jeff Merkley and the DSCC. Jeff fought his way through a tough primary and won the day by unseating Republican Gordon Smith. He did it, in no small part, thanks to the DSCC which poured more into this race than any other race in the country.

Loser: Gordon Smith, Freedom’s Watch and the NRSC. Despite their best efforts to lie to Oregonians and mislead them into thinking Smith is a moderate, they failed this time. At times it even seemed that the more Smith and his allies spent on negative ads, the worse they did. This is not to say that Merkley and our side did not run negative ads because we did but theirs seemed to backfire.

Electoral Trends:

Winner: The 36 county strategy. Although they didn’t win everywhere, Oregon Democrats surged to near record performances across the state. They won their first state legislative seat east of the Cascades since the 1990s and basically eliminated the Republican party’s presence in Portland and Eugene.

Loser: Fake moderate Republicans. From Gordon Smith to John Lim to Jim Torrey and beyond, Oregon Republicans who claimed to be moderates were roundly defeated by Democrats in virtually every case. Proving that Oregonians can indeed see beyond the hype.

Interest Groups/Endorsers:

Winner: Oregon SEIU. Perhaps the biggest winner in the state among all the unions was the Oregon SEIU as it helped ensure a majority favorable to their concerns and helped Defend Oregon defeat all the nasty ballot measures to boot.

Loser: Big Business. The Employee Free Choice Act (Card Check Unionization) was passed in Oregon last year and despite the best efforts of big business to elect candidates who would oppose it, they failed. Oregon is a pro-worker and pro-union state and shall remain so at least for now.

Winner: Barbara Roberts. I so love our former Governor and honestly its hard not to. Barbara still clearly has a lot of political power as all of the persons she endorsed and measures she took positions on went the way she hoped.

Loser: Kevin Mannix and Bill Sizemore. They go a combined 0 for 7 in the ballot measures this year and only one of them, Measure 64, was even close. Back to the drawing board you morans!

The Media:

Winner: Tim Hibbits. Oregon’s top political analyst called the Senate race for Merkley Tuesday night and turned out, as usual, to be spot on. In more than 900 races in which Hibbits has made a projection, he has been wrong exactly twice.

Loser: The Oregonian. For endorsing Gordon Smith because Merkley’s win would give the Dems too much power. Really, that’s a bad thing? Well the streak continues as the Oregonian has not endorsed a winning Republican in a major race in a long time.

Awards:

Biggest Surprise in a major election: Measure 65’s stunning rejection by a 2-1 margin. I thought it would fail but that it would be very close. I’m happy to be wrong.

Best Victory Celebration: A crowd in Portland spontaneously breaking out into singing the national anthem after finding out Obama won.

Best political ad: Obama’s ad for Merkley (see above).

Worst Political ad: The Hot Dog ad by the NRSC:

Most disgusting political ad: Merkley supports rapists by Smith’s campaign:

Best victory speech: Merkley’s victory speech in the US Senate race, which I just saw delivered at Portland State. Waiting a few extra days for it didn’t make it any less sweeter when Sen.-elect Merkley, flanked by his wife, his mother and current Senator Ron Wyden (D-OR), walked into the hall packed with lots of local supporters in a space designed for maybe 50-75 on a typical day. Merkley spoke about the issues that matter both to Oregon and the nation and how he would be a new progressive voice for this state.

A key quote from Merkley’s speech:

Speaking at PSU’s Urban Center, Merkely said he couldn’t be “more honored” than to be serving with veteran Democrat Ron Wyden in the U.S. Senate and said that it is now “time for a problem solving, bi-partisan approach” to the many issues facing the country

Link to article about the victory: Jeff Merkley accepts his role as Oregon’s newest senator

Best-run campaign: Jeff Merkley (US Sen.). One should not underestimate what Jeff and his team just accomplished as they unseated Gordon Smith, who many even in Democratic circles thought was untouchable. Kudos to his staff and the army of supporters who carried the day.

Worst-run campaign: Mike Erickson (OR-5). Not so much for how he ran the campaign as for how he reacted to all his personal scandals. Whether it was taking his girlfriend to an abortion doctor and lying about it or taking a trip to Cuba supposedly for humanitarian reasons and instead partying the night away, Erickson in a textbook example of how NOT to run a campaign. Yet he is utterly clueless about this and has, in fact, already been rumored to be running again in 2010.

Most-misleading campaign: Both sides of the Measure 64 campaign, the union payroll deduction. Both sides stretched the truth more than a bit when it came to this proposed measure. The yes folks overstated the danger of having public employee unions involved in politics while the no die claimed a far wider impact from this law than was likely (stifling the Oregon Food Bank among others supposedly). Still, the good guys on the no side won, and I am very happy they did. This criticism is not about their position but some of the ads they ran during this campaign.

Best-run campaign in a losing cause: Michele Eberle (OR House). Came within inches of unseating a man with a long history in this state, Rep. Scott Brunn. She may well win again if she runs in two years but given that this seat was not on anyone’s target list two years ago, the fact that she came this close says a lot. Honorable mention to Jessica Adamson in Wilsonville as well.

Politician I am most happy to see lose: Gordon Smith. After the misleading attack ads in what was without a doubt the most negative campaign in Oregon history, I really wanted to win this one. We did, so I’m happy.

Let me know what you think.

Blue Dawn: Final Oregon Predictions and Viewing Guide

The genesis for this title is a Willamette Week article titled “Red Dawn” published in July of 2006 which claimed, at the time, to show evidence of a Republican surge in the Beaver State. It goes without saying that those predictions were dead wrong as the Democratic party has more than tripled its registration edge in my home state and seems poised to post strong wins statewide. Below are my final summary predictions and some things to watch Thursday.

Cross-Posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/sh…

The Statewide Layout:

Total Registered Voters: About 2.2 Million.

Democrats: 45%

Republicans: 32.5%.

Nonpartisan/Others: 23.5%.

Turnout Projection: 80-85%. We’re at about 54% as of yesterday in Multnomah County, which closely parallels the state as a whole (http://www.co.multnomah.or.us/dbcs/elections/2008-11/turnout.shtml). Democrats are currently outvoting Republicans by 7% and Independents/Third Party Members are lagging well behind that pace. As of now, just less than half of the votes cast in Oregon have been cast by Democrats. I doubt that margin will hold but if we end up anywhere close to that it will be a very good night. FYI, there is not a single county in the state currently where a higher percentage of Republicans have voted than Democrats.

This means I think that about 900-950k votes will be required to win statewide, once you account for third party votes in many races.

How to Watch OR Results:

There are four good places to track Oregon’s results:

Official SOS vote tracker-http://www.sos.state.or.us/elections/. Note: There is no link there yet but it will go active on election night at 8 PM. This is the best statewide results tracker.

KGW (Portland’s NBC affiliate)-http://www.kgw.com/. Widely considered the best in Portland, KGW often does live streams of its election results broadcasts.

The Oregonian-http://www.oregonlive.com/-Oregon’s largest statewide paper, based in Portland.

The Register-Guard-http://www.registerguard.com/web/news/index.csp-The leading paper in Eugene, Oregon’s second largest city.

Results Reporting:

Results will typically be released on the following schedule (all times Pacific):

8 PM-Ballots due, Multnomah County releases its first count (ballots cast before Monday night), expect this result to be skewed in Obama’s favor.

9-9:30 PM-Major counting completed of ballots cast prior to Monday/Tuesday in most counties. Results are typically updated every 30-60 minutes.

11 PM-Most results apparent. If the margin is 3% or less we may have to wait overnight but anything more than that they’ll have called it by now.

12 PM Wednesday-Count completed by this time.

FYI, exit polling IS conducted via phone survey, so you can expect a call on the Presidential race at least AT 8 PM.

Things to watch for:

Washington and Clackamas Counties-If either goes blue, Merkley will win the Senate race, period. I’m betting Washington does and Clackamas will be close.

36 State House Seats-Thanks to one of our crazy ballot measures in the 90s, you need a 3/5 majority in the legislature to pass revenue increases. We have that in the Senate and will not lose it. We need a net gain of 5 (which is I would say very possible) to get it in the State house.

Dark House State House races-There are always 1 or 2 that no one expects to be close but are (the races in Medford and the Dalles last time were and Minnis’s seat was shockingly close in 2004). They are almost never actual upsets but this year they may be.

Projected Results:

For a more detailed description of results, read my prior diary: How Blue will Oregon Be?: My Near-Final Predictions.

Key:

Size of Districts:

State House: Aprox. 55k.

State Senate: Aprox. 110k.

The incumbent is always listed first, or failing that, the incumbent party. All minor parties are listed after the two major parties.

Party Key:

D=Democratic

R=Republican

G=Pacific Green

C=Constitution

L=Libertarian

I=Independent Party (This IS a political party, NOT those running as independents).

P=Peace Party (Ralph Nader’s party formed to get him on the ballot).

N=Not a member of a party, or what is otherwise known as independent.

Key:

x-=Pickup.

l-=Loss.

Statewide Candidates:

US President-Obama (D).

US Senate=x-Merkley (D).

Secretary of State-Brown (D).

Attorney General-Kroger (D).

State Treasurer-Westlund (D).

Labor Commissioner-Avakian (Nonpartisan Office).

Ballot Measures:

Measure Type:

C-Constitutional.

S-Statutory.

Explanation of Special Case for Measures 57/61: Once it became apparent to the legislature last year that what is now known as Measure 61 would qualify and would likely pass, they referred their own alternative (Measure 57) to the ballot. In order to deal with conflicts should both pass (as many, if not most, consider likely), the legislature put a clause in Measure 57 stating that if both pass, the one with more yes votes becomes law while the other fails.

Legislative Referrals:

Measure 54 (C):

Summary: This corrects a bizarre flaw in the state constitution that prohibits citizens under 21 from voting in school board elections (a provision which is, of course, not in effect but should be removed anyways).

Projection: Pass.

Measure 55 (C):

Summary: Minor fixes to the state’s redistricting process.

Projection: Pass.

Citizen Constitutional and Statutory Measures:

Measure 58 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore.

Summary: This measure would require English immersion rather than ESL for children for whom English is not their primary language.

Projection: Fail.

Measure 60 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore

Summary: This would require “merit-pay” for teachers in public schools.

Projection: Fail.

Measure 61 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Kevin Mannix

Summary: This is Kevin Mannix’s draconian sentencing measure for property and low-level drug crimes.

Projection: Pass but with less votes than Measure 57, thus meaning it effectively fails.

Measure 62 (C):

Chief Sponsor: Kevin Mannix.

Summary: Dedicates 15% of Oregon Lottery proceeds to crime fighting/prevention efforts.

Projection: Fail.

Measure 63 (S):

Chief Sponsor; Bill Sizemore

Summary: This measure would allow minor home modifications (costing less than $35k) without a permit.

Projection: Fail.

Measure 64 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore

Summary: Sizemore brings back an old and twice-failed idea to ban public-employee unions from using dues for political purposes.

Projection: Fail.

Congressional Races:

District 1: Wu (D-inc).

District 2: Walden (R-inc).

District 3: Blumenauer (D-inc).

District 4: DeFazio (D-inc).

District 5: Schrader (D).

Oregon Legislature:

Key: *=Targeted Seat.

Oregon Senate:

Current Composition: 18D, 11R, 1 I.

Projected Composition: 18D, 12R (1 I to D and one D to R).

Safe Races:

1 (Roseburg)-Kruse (R).

2 (Central Point)-Atkinston (R).

5 (Lincoln City)-Verger (D).

14 (West Slope/Beaverton)-Hass (D).

18 (Tigard/SW Portland)-Burdick (D).

21 (SE Portland)-Rosenbaum (D).

22 (Portland)-Carter (D).

23 (NE Portland)-x-Dingfelder (D), this is technically a net pickup of 1, as Avel Gordly is an I.

25 (Gresham)-Monnes Anderson (D)-This one may be a bit closer than expected because the Rs have fielded a candidate via write-in. I still believe it is going to be Monnes Anderson by a lot though.

28 (Klamath Falls)-Whitsett (R).

29 (Pendleton)-Nelson (R).

30 (Ontario)-Ferriolli (R).

Competitive Races:

9 (Stayton)-Girod (R).

12 (McMinnville)-Boquist (R).

*27 (Bend)-l-Telfer (R).

Oregon House:

Current Composition: 31 D, 29 R.

Projected Composition: 38 D, 22 R.

The following seats are rated either safe or likely:

1 (Gold Beach)-Krieger (R).

2 (Myrtle Creek)-Freeman (R).

3 (Grants Pass)-Maurer (R).

4 (Central Point)-Richardson (R).

5 (Ashland)-Buckley (D).

7 (Roseburg)-Hanna (R).

8 (Eugene)-Holvey (D).

9 (Coos Bay)-Roblan (D).

10 (Newport)-Cowan (D)-She won this seat by all of 750 votes two years ago and the Rs couldn’t find an opponent for her.

11 (Eugene)-Barnhart (D).

12 (Springfield)-Beyer (D).

13 (Eugene)-Nathanson (D).

14 (Eugene)-Edwards (D).

16 (Corvallis)-Gelser (D).

21 (Salem)-Clem (D).

22 (Woodburn)-Komp (D).

25 (Keizer)-Thatcher (R).

27 (West Slope, my district!)-Read (D).

28 (Beaverton)-Barker (D).

29 (Hillsboro)-Riley (D).

31 (Clatskanie)-Witt (D).

32 (Cannon Beach)-Boone (D).

33 (Portland)-Greenlick (D).

34 (Beaverton)-Harker (D).

35 (Tigard)-Galizio (D).

36 (Portland)-Nolan (D).

38 (Lake Oswego)-Garrett (D).

40 (Oregon City)-Hunt (D).

41 (Milwaukie)-Tomei (D).

42 (Portland)-Koppel-Bailey (D).

43 (Portland)-Shields (D).

44 (Portland)-Kotek (D).

45 (Portland)-Dembrow (D).

46 (Portland)-Cannon (D).

47 (Portland)-J. Smith (D).

48 (Happy Valley)-Schaufler (D).

53 (Sunriver)-Whisnant (R).

55 (Medford)-Gilliam (R).

56 (Klamath Falls)-Garrard (R).

57 (Heppner)-G. Smith (R).

58 (Pendleton)-Jenson (R).

60 (Ontario)-Benz (R).

Projected Pickups (all D):

*26 (Wilsonville)-x-Adamson (D).

*37 (West Linn)-x-Eberle (D).

*49 (Gresham)-x-Kahl (D).

*50 (Fairview)-x-Matthews (D).

*51 (Clackamas)-x-Barton (D).

*52 (Corbett)-x-VanOrman (D).

*54 (Bend)-x-Stiegler (D).

Projected Holds (D or R):

Note: These are all possible takeovers by the opposition party. I am merely stating that I think they are more likely to be holds than takeovers, although in some cases, like the Canby seat, it will be very close.

6 (Medford)-Esquivel (R).

15 (Albany)-Olson (R).

17 (Scio)-Sprenger (R).

18 (Silverton)-Gilliam (R).

19 (Salem)-Cameron (R).

20 (Independence/Monmouth)-Berger (R).

23 (Dallas)-Thompson (R).

24 (McMinnville)-Wiedner (R).

*30 (Hillsboro)-Edwards (D).

*39 (Canby)-Kennemer (R).

59 (The Dalles)-Huffman (R).

Well that’s it, let me know what you think.

How Blue will Oregon Be?: My Near-Final Predictions

With a week to go, it is time for me to really make some predictions about where the races will go this fall. I will update them on November 4 but if I had to guess, what is below is what I think will happen. The real question for Democrats, in summary, will be not will they increase their majority but by how much.

Cross-Posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/sh…

The Statewide Layout:

Total Registered Voters: About 2.2 Million.

Democrats: 45%

Republicans: 32.5%.

Nonpartisan/Others: 23.5%.

Turnout Projection: 85-90%. We are maybe just slightly behind where we were in 2004 when we finished with 86% turnout BUT the pace has picked up and I think that we’ll get close to 90% by the time it’s all said and done. Typically we can take the turnout Friday before the election and roughly double it to get the projected turnout. We’re at about 28-30% right now (an inference made from looking at today’s Multnomah County returns, which tend to parallel the state as a whole at http://www.co.multnomah.or.us/dbcs/elections/2008-11/turnout.shtml).

This means I think that about 900-950k votes will be required to win statewide, once you account for third party votes in many races.

Key:

Size of Districts:

State House: Aprox. 55k.

State Senate: Aprox. 110k.

The incumbent is always listed first, or failing that, the incumbent party. All minor parties are listed after the two major parties.

Party Key:

D=Democratic

R=Republican

G=Pacific Green

C=Constitution

L=Libertarian

I=Independent Party (This IS a political party, NOT those running as independents).

P=Peace Party (Ralph Nader’s party formed to get him on the ballot).

N=Not a member of a party, or what is otherwise known as independent.

Key:

x-=Pickup.

l-=Loss.

Statewide Candidates:

US President

Candidates: Sen. John McCain (R) vs. Sen. Barack Obama (D), Ralph Nader (P), Cynthia McKinney (G), Bob Barr (L) and Chuck Baldwin (C).

Summary: This has always been Obama’s state and it will remain that way convincingly

Projected Winner: Obama.

US Senate

Candidates: Sen. Gordon Smith (R-inc) vs. Speaker of the OR House Jeff Merkley (D) and David Brownlow (C).

Summary: Jeff Merkley appears to be on a clear both to victory. Not that he can’t lose this but he is ahead and unless something fundamental changes very soon, Merkley will be Oregon’s next Senator.

Projected Winner: x-Merkley.

Secretary of State

Candidates: State Senate Majority Leader Kate Brown (D) vs. Eugene TV Reporter Rick Dancer (R) and Seth Allan Wooley (G).

Summary: Rick Dancer may make it a little closer than previously expected, having run a number of TV ads financed primarily by timber interests. Still, Brown should have little trouble winning this race.

Projected Winner: Brown.

Note: Brown would be the first GLBT candidate ever elected to statewide office in the US, a fact which has honestly not come up at all in the campaign.

Attorney General

John Kroger (D) faces only minor party candidates and should cruise.

Projected Winner: Kroger.

State Treasurer

Candidates: State Senator Ben Westlund (D) vs. former Kulongoski staffer Allan Alley (R) and Michael Marsh (C)

Summary: Again Alley may narrow the margin a bit but I really doubt it’ll end up being that close in the end. Westlund cruises.

Projected Winner: Westlund.

Labor Commissioner (Technically a nonpartisan race, 2 year vacancy filling election)

Candidates: Former State Senator Brad Avakian (D-int.) vs. Founder, Instructor/Provider of a physical and mental fitness program Pavel Goberman (D) and Losing CD1 Candidate Mark Welzycko (D).

Summary: Avakian should have little trouble, given his status as a well known figure in state politics and the lack of funding for any of his opponents.

Projected Winner: Avakian.

Ballot Measures:

Measure Type:

C-Constitutional.

S-Statutory.

Legislative Referrals:

Measure 55 (C):

Summary: Minor fixes to the state’s redistricting process.

Known Opposition: None.

Projection: Pass.

Measure 56 (S):

Summary: Partially repeals the Double Majority law requiring that 50% of registered voters cast ballots in an election for a bond measure to pass for May and November votes.

Known Opposition: Taxpayer Association of Oregon (Far Right), Bill Sizemore (Sponsor of all things extremely libertarian).

Projection: Pass, I really don’t think this will be that close.

Measure 57 (S):

Summary: Proposes an alternative to Kevin Mannix’s (R-Of Course) property crime sentence minimum initiative. Focuses state policy on treatment rather than prison for low level drug and property crimes.

Known Opposition: Kevin Mannix and his crew.

Projection: Pass with more votes than Measure 61, thus becoming law. I think that both will pass though.

Citizen Constitutional and Statutory Measures:

Measure 58 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore.

Summary: This measure would require English immersion rather than ESL for children for whom English is not their primary language.

Known Opposition: I would think a lot of progressive groups will mobilize against this one.

Projection: Fail, this has really not gained any traction at all and should fail pretty convincingly.

Measure 59 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore

Summary: This is at least the third time that Sizemore and his gang have proposed this measure, which makes federal income taxes fully deductible on state returns. This measure largely benefits high wage earners and would blow a huge hole in the state’s budget.

Known Opposition: A leading coalition of progressive groups will once again mobilize against this one.

Projection: Fail, the third time is NOT the charm for Sizemore.

Measure 60 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore

Summary: This would require “merit-pay” for teachers in public schools.

Known Opposition: The Oregon Education Association will doubtless go all out against this measure.

Projection: Fail, as noted before, a similar measure failed in 2000 with 65% against. Thus, in this climate its hard to imagine it doing much better.

Measure 61 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Kevin Mannix

Summary: This is Kevin Mannix’s draconian sentencing measure for property and low-level drug crimes.

Known Opposition: Most of the Legislature for one (See Measure 57) as well as most of the moderate and progressive groups in the state.

Projection: Pass but with less votes than Measure 57, thus meaning it effectively fails.

Measure 62 (C):

Chief Sponsor: Kevin Mannix.

Summary: Dedicates 15% of Oregon Lottery proceeds to crime fighting/prevention efforts.

Known Opposition: The current groups that receive lottery funds, schools and parks, have opposed this.

Projection: Fail, I think the message has gotten out that this cuts money from schools and people like money for schools. It could be close though.

Measure 63 (S):

Chief Sponsor; Bill Sizemore

Summary: This measure would allow minor building changes without a permit.

Known Opposition: A wide coalition led by building companies.

Projection: Fail, Sizemore continues his losing streak here.

Measure 64 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore

Summary: Sizemore brings back an old and twice-failed idea to ban public-employee unions from using dues for political purposes.

Known Opposition: The progressive movement in this state will mobilize to kill this one.

Projection: Fail, the third time is not the charm once again.

Measure 65 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Former SOS Phil Keisling (D)

Summary: Creates a Top-Two Open Primary in which all parties run their candidates on the same ballot and the top two, regardless of party affiliation, advance to the general election.

Known Opposition: Both the Oregon D’s and R’s oppose this strongly.

Projection: Fail, narrowly. This is a gut feeling and I may well be dead wrong but I just think the major party opposition will kill this.

Congressional Races:

District 1: Wu (D-inc) will cruise.

District 2: Walden (R-inc) will have little trouble. If the margin is under 10% that’s a victory for the Ds.

District 3: Blumenauer (D-inc) is well-loved in this district and for good reason.

District 4: DeFazio (D-inc) faces only minor party opposition.

District 5

Candidates: State Senator Kurt Schrader (D) vs. Businessman and 2006 R Nominee Mike Erickson (R).

Registration Info: 165k Ds, 144k Rs, 88k NP/Others.

Summary: Yes Erickson has money, yes he has been running ads but no I don’t think he has much of a chance of winning this one. Schrader wins easily.

Projected Winner: Schrader.

Oregon Legislature:

Key: *=Targeted Seat.

Oregon Senate

Current Composition: 18D, 11R, 1 I.

Projected Composition: 18D, 12R (1 I to D and one D to R).

Ratings Changes:

None.

Safe Races:

1 (Roseburg)-Kruse (R).

2 (Central Point)-Atkinston (R).

5 (Lincoln City)-Verger (D).

14 (West Slope/Beaverton)-Hass (D).

18 (Tigard/SW Portland)-Burdick (D).

21 (SE Portland)-Rosenbaum (D).

22 (Portland)-Carter (D).

23 (NE Portland)-x-Dingfelder (D), this is technically a net pickup of 1, as Avel Gordly is an I.

25 (Gresham)-Monnes Anderson (D)-This one may be a bit closer than expected because the Rs have fielded a candidate via write-in. I still believe it is going to be Monnes Anderson by a lot though.

28 (Klamath Falls)-Whitsett (R).

29 (Pendleton)-Nelson (R).

30 (Ontario)-Ferriolli (R).

Competitive Races:

9 (Stayton)

Candidates: Fred Girod (R-int) vs. Bob McDonald (D).

Registration: R+4k.

Summary: The fact that this race is even competitive ought to really scare the Rs. Girod still has the edge though.

Projected Winner: Girod.

3rd-12 (McMinnville)

Candidates: Brian Boquist (R) vs. Kevin Nortness (D).

Registration: R+2.5k

Summary: The Rs had to scramble to get Boquist to run for this fairly safe seat. This district is certainly changing but I don’t know if it is changing fast enough or if Nortness is a good enough candidate to replace the well-known Boquist.

Projected Winner: Boquist.

*27 (Bend)

Candidates: Marien Lundgren (D) vs. Chris Telfer (R).

Registration: R+3k

Summary: This is Ben Westlund’s seat and it would be a huge accomplishment to hold it (he won it twice running as a Republican). I dont’t think it will happen but this one to watch..

Projected Winner: l-Telfer.

Oregon House:

Current Composition: 31 D, 29 R.

Projected Composition: 38 D, 22 R.

The following seats are rated either safe or likely:

Projected Pickups (all D):

*26 (Wilsonville)

Candidates: Matt Wingard (R-int.) vs. Jessica Adamson (D).

Registration: R+2k

Summary: Sometimes the opportunities just fall into your lap. In this case, it turns out that Wingard has been arrested for using a screwdriver on his son. Wingard has run a bad campaign, Adamson a good one, I’m calling the upset.

Projected Winner: x-Adamson.

*37 (West Linn)

Candidates: Scott Bruun (R-inc.) vs. Michele Eberle (D).

Registration: D+ less than 1k.

Summary: Were this 20 years ago, or even 10, Eberle would have absolutely no chance in this district given the Bruun family’s strong legacy there. This year is not normal, however, and Eberle has been running a great campaign. I’m calling it a pickup.

Projected Winner: x-Eberle.

*49 (Gresham)

Candidates: John Nelsen (R) vs. Nick Kahl (D).

Registration: D+4.5k

Summary: Two years ago about the only major disappointment I had was Minnis winning this district. Republicans think Kahl is a lightweight because he’s young and relatively inexperienced. Kahl certainly would appear to face an uphill battle but this district’s D tilt should be enough to put him over the top.

Projected Winner: x-Kahl.

*50 (Fairview)

Candidates: John Lim (R-inc.) vs. Greg Matthews (D).

Registration: D+3k

Summary: How Lim keeps winning here is a mystery. Matthews finally puts Lim out of his misery with a win here.

Projected Winner: x-Matthews.

*51 (Clackamas)

Candidates: Linda Flores (R-inc.) vs. Brent Barton (D).

Registration: D+1k

Summary: How I would love to get rid of the racist Flores. Barton has the money and he has the message. Say goodbye to one of my least favorite people in the legislature.

Projected Winner: x-Barton.

*52 (Corbett)

Candidates: Matt Lindland (R) vs. Suzanne VanOrman (D).

Registration: D+2k

Summary: In case you’re wondering, yes Matt Lindland is indeed otherwise known as UFC fighter Matt “The Law” Lindland. He should stick with Ultimate Fighting as VanOrman should pick this one up for the Ds.

Projected Winner: x-VanOrman.

*54 (Bend)

Candidates: Chuck Burley (R-inc.) vs. Judy Stiegler (D).

Registration: D+1.5k

Summary: This district has been trending blue over the past several years thanks largely to an influx of California retirees. Stiegler lost by less than a thousand votes when this was an open seat in 2004. I think this is the year the Ds break through and win their first state legislative race east of the Cascades since the 1960s.

Projected Winner: x-Stiegler.

Projected Holds (D or R):

6 (Medford)

Candidates: Sal Esquivel (R-inc.) vs. Lynn Howe (D).

Registration: R+3k

Summary: No one believed me two years ago when I said this seat would be competitive, and then Esquivel barely eked out a win. My guess is that he won’t be caught napping this time, though.

Projected Winner: Esquivel.

15 (Albany)

Candidates: Andy Olson (R-inc.) vs. Dick Olsen (D).

Registration: D and R even

Summary: This district was not on anyone’s list but mine two years ago as potentially competitive. Now with an even registration mix, a chance for an upset is there. Olson, a former State Policeman, is popular in this district making it a likely hold.

Projected Winner: Olson.

17 (Scio)

Candidates: Sherrie Sprenger (R-int.) vs. Dale Thackaberry (D).

Registration: R+2k

Summary: Following a bloody and divisive R primary, Thackaberry has a real chance to pull an upset. Add to that the fact that Sprenger has never won a general election here. Still, this is an R district and thus more likely than not Sprenger holds.

Projected Winner: Sprenger.

18 (Silverton)

Candidates: Vic Gilliam (R-int.) vs. Jim Gilbert (D).

Registration: R+2.2k

Summary: This is one of my dark horse races this year. Gilliam is the favorite but Gilbert may well pull the upset.

Projected Winner: Gilliam.

19 (Salem)

Candidates: Kevin Cameron (R-inc.) vs. Hanten (HD) Day (D).

Registration: R+ less than 1k

Summary: This is a district that should be more competitive than it has in the past. Cameron is vulnerable, especially to a good candidate such as Day. Interesting fact, Cameron runs the cafeteria that operates in the basement of the Oregon Capitol that I ate in probably three times a week during the 2005 session. Let’s just say, his food is much better than he is as a legislator but this is still a historically R-leaning district so he has the edge. This is one of a number of seats that could go blue on election night..

Projected Winner: Cameron.

20 (Independence/Monmouth)

Candidates: Vicki Berger (R-inc.) vs. Richard Riggs (D).

Registration: D+1k

Summary: Berger is one of the last remaining liberal Republicans that Oregon used to develop like crazy. She’s in for fight for her life this time due much more to both the state of the Republican party and the slight D registration edge though. I still think she pulls it out, barely.

Projected Winner: Berger.

23 (Dallas)

Candidates: Jim Thompson (R) vs. Jason Brown (D).

Registration: R+2k

Summary: Thompson likely has the edge here. If this seat falls, it will be a very long night for the Republicans.

Projected Winner: Thompson.

24 (McMinnville)

Candidates: Jim Wiedner (R) vs. Bernt Hansen (D).

Registration: D and R even.

Summary: This was the seat that Kossack Sal Peralta almost won in 2006. If Hansen can run a good campaign, a win is definitely possible here. However, from all accounts Wiedner has the money and has run a very solid campaign so I think he holds this one.

Projected Winner: Wiedner.

*30 (Hillsboro)

Candidates: David Edwards (D-inc.) vs. Andy Duyck (R).

Registration: D+2k

Summary: This is the Republican’s only targeted seat and Duyck might have been a good candidate ten or even four years ago. Instead, I think that the longtime Washington County politician will fall short against Edwards, who ran a campaign fraught with problems, much of it self-inflicted, in 2006, and still won. Edwards should win far easier this time around.

Projected Winner: Edwards.

*39 (Canby)

Candidates: Bill Kennemer (R) vs. Tony Forsberg (D).

Registration: D+1k

Summary: I’d love to be able to say that Forsberg will win this one but I think that Kennemer is well enough known he’ll barely hold on for the win.

Projected Winner: Kennemer.

59 (The Dalles)

Candidates: John Huffman (R-int.) vs. Mike Ahern (D).

Registration: R+1k

Summary: This one is going to be very very close and as an open seat battle it can surely go either way. That being said, this is a historically R district and I think Huffman will pull it out.

Projected Winner: Huffman.

Well that’s it, let me know what you think.

Dems Set Registration Record in Oregon, Merkley Outraises Smith and More Oregon News

In this edition of my reports on Oregon political news, I talk about how the Oregon Democrats keep improving their chances of a big win in 19 days. Namely, voter registration for Democrats has crushed all previously existing records and Jeff Merkley, for the second quarter in a row, outraised Gordon Smith.

Cross-Posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/sh…

In this edition, I discuss four stories:

1. Democrats set new Voter Registration Record.

2. Merkley outraises Smith.

3. New Poll Confirms Schrader dominates Erickson in OR-5.

4. My Favorite Local Ads.

Democrats set new Voter Registration Record:

Story: Oregon tilts heavily to Democrats in registration

With the conclusion of the voter registration period on Tuesday, the near final voter registration numbers are now in (registrations count if they were postmarked by Tuesday so these may increase slightly). The winner is unquestionably the Democratic Party. In 2004 there were 829k Democrats and 762k Republicans (these numbers are misleadingly high because the old county by county system meant that if you moved within the state your name was often not removed from your old county’s list). As of Tuesday there are 928k Democrats and 693k Republicans, a record number of Democrats and a record gap between the two parties for Oregon. To quote the article discussing these numbers

According to the state Elections Division, between May 21 and Wednesday, 4,123 registered Democrats became Republicans. During the first four months of the year, 2,106 Democrats did the same. For all of 2008, 26,657 Republicans switched their registration to Democrat and 6,229 Democrats became Republicans, a net gain of 20,428 registered Democrats. The Democrats did even better among nonaffiliated voters, who make up about 20 percent of the Oregon electorate. Since Jan. 1, 52,064 previously nonaffiliated voters registered as Democrats and 6,344 as Republicans, a net gain of 45,720 for the Democrats.

I do not yet have the breakdown by district or county but a look at the most recent statistics available there, covering through the end of last month (http://www.sos.state.or.us/elections/votreg/sep08.pdf) shows that Democrats have made gains statewide and that, for example, even if you removed Multnomah County (Portland) from the picture) Democrats would still have a statewide registration edge of around 70k voters, more than they had four years ago.

Merkley Outraises Smith for the Second Quarter in a Row:

Following the submission of Gordon Smith’s fundraising numbers for last quarter, I can now safely say that Jeff Merkley once again outraised Smith. According to the wonderful Sarah Lane, Netroots director for Merkley, these are Smith’s numbers:

$1.87 million raised

$4.8 million spent

$1.5 million on hand

.

We know from previous reports that Merkley raised somewhere in the $2-$2.1M range last quarter and although expenditures/COH numbers are not yet available, Merkley looks to be in great shape. Further proof that Merkley’s grassroots-based fundraising effort can outraise the lobbyists and special interests that fund Smith’s campaign.

New Poll Confirms Schrader dominates Erickson in OR-5:

The first poll of the year is out in OR-5 and Democrat Kurt Schrader leads Republican Mike Erickson 51-38 (http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=66f4a22a-0b85-4b86-9040-84643db392ec). Although there are some strange findings in this poll, such as that younger voters slightly prefer Erickson, it is further proof the long-held belief that Schrader will cruise this fall.

My Favorite Local Ads

The following are my three favorite local ads of the cycle:

Suzanne VanOrman (D), running against Ultimate Fighter Matt “The Law” Lindland (R) for State Rep:

Greg Matthews (D), running against John Lim (R):

No on 64 ad (Ban on Political Deductions for Public Employee Unions):

Let me know what you think.

Blue Wave Rising: Oregon Election Update

The following is my update of the races that will be contested next month in the state of Oregon. My projections will be updated probably one more time shortly before election day. I do not work for any campaign and my projections are my own.

Cross-Posted from Loaded Orygun: http://loadedorygun.net/showDi…

The reason for the title is simple, it is becoming clearer each day that Oregon, a blue state to begin with, is likely to experience another blue wave come this fall as the Democrats really have an opportunity to solidify our control of the state legislature for the next several elections. This is especially true with the likely addition of a Congressional seat following the 2010 Census, meaning control of the legislature is of paramount importance.

The Statewide Layout:

Total Registered Voters: About 2.05 Million.

Democrats: 44% (+210k vs. Republicans)

Republicans: 32%.

Nonpartisan/Others: 24%.

Voter Registration Info: http://www.sos.state.or.us/elections/votreg/aug08.pdf

State Voter’s Guide: http://www.sos.state.or.us/elections/nov42008/military_vp.html

Key:

Size of Districts:

State House: Aprox. 55k.

State Senate: Aprox. 110k.

The incumbent is always listed first, or failing that, the incumbent party. All minor parties are listed after the two major parties.

Party Key:

D=Democratic

R=Republican

G=Pacific Green

C=Constitution

L=Libertarian

I=Independent Party (This IS a political party, NOT those running as independents).

N=Not a member of a party, or what is otherwise known as independent.

Ratings:

Tossup-Margin less than 3%.

Lean-3-10% margin.

Likely-11-20% margin.

Safe-More than 20% margin.

Inc=Incumbent, Int=Interim Incumbent (Someone appointed to fill a seat until the next election due typically to resignation of the previous holder. State law allows the party which held the seat to essentially appoint the replacement. For example, when my State Senator resigned to take a job as the leader of a moderate Business Lobbying group, as a Precinct Committee Person I was entitled to vote for his replacement, which was then ratified by the County Commission).

Statewide Races:

Ratings Changes:

US President upgrade to Likely Dem-McCain closed his only office in the state, meaning it could well be a rout.

US Senate upgrade to Lean Dem-I was hesitant to do this for the longest time to Merkley is appearing to rise with each day as Smith falters. This is a very tenuous lean dem rating, however.

State Treasurer downgrade to Likely Dem-No big deal, I just think with Allen Alley contesting this race, Westlund will not win by more than 15-18% or so.

US President

Candidates: Sen. John McCain (R) vs. Sen. Barack Obama (D), Ralph Nader (P), Cynthia McKinney (G), Bob Barr (L) and Chuck Baldwin (C).

Summary: McCain closed his only office in Oregon, thereby ending any real chance that McCain had in this state. Count 7 EVs for Obama, with the only question being the margin.

Rating: Likely Obama.

US Senate

Candidates: Sen. Gordon Smith (R-inc) vs. Speaker of the OR House Jeff Merkley (D) and David Brownlow (C).

Summary: Jeff has surged pretty significantly over the past few weeks and now has the slightest of leads. It’s not over by a long shot but if I had to guess, Merkley would win with Smith well under 50% approval.

Rating: Lean Merkley.

Attorney General

John Kroger (D) faces only minor party candidates and should cruise.

State Treasurer

Candidates: State Senator Ben Westlund (D) vs. former Kulongoski staffer Allan Alley (R) and Michael Marsh (C)

Summary: Allen Alley is contesting this race, meaning it won’t be an absolute rout but should still be a very solid win for Westlund.

Rating: Likely Westlund.

Ballot Measures:

Measure Type:

C-Constitutional.

S-Statutory.

Ratings Changes:

Measure 61 to Tossup-Mandatory Minnimum measures typically pass, so I am changing this rating slightly.

Legislative Referrals:

Measure 55 (C):

Summary: Minor fixes to the state’s redistricting process.

Known Opposition: None.

Outlook: Safe Yes.

Measure 56 (S):

Summary: Partially repeals the Double Majority law requiring that 50% of registered voters cast ballots in an election for a bond measure to pass for May and November votes.

Known Opposition: Taxpayer Association of Oregon (Far Right), Bill Sizemore (Sponsor of all things extremely libertarian).

Outlook: Likely Yes, the legislature’s approval should allow this one to win pretty easily. The game is clearly on over this measure but I doubt it’ll have trouble.

Measure 57 (S):

Summary: Proposes an alternative to Kevin Mannix’s (R-Of Course) property crime sentence minimum initiative. Focuses state policy on treatment rather than prison for low level drug and property crimes.

Known Opposition: Kevin Mannix and his crew.

Outlook: Leans Yes, my guess is that with both on the ballot, Mannix’s extreme measure will fail when compared to this one. An interesting note is that if they both pass, the one with more yes votes gets enacted.

Citizen Constitutional and Statutory Measures:

Measure 58 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore.

Summary: This measure would require English immersion rather than ESL for children for whom English is not their primary language.

Known Opposition: I would think a lot of progressive groups will mobilize against this one.

Outlook: Leans to Likely No, similar measures have failed in the past, and this will be no different.

Measure 59 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore

Summary: This is at least the third time that Sizemore and his gang have proposed this measure, which makes federal income taxes fully deductible on state returns. This measure largely benefits high wage earners and would blow a huge hole in the state’s budget.

Known Opposition: A leading coalition of progressive groups will once again mobilize against this one.

Outlook: Likely No, the good news is that although Sizemore can qualify measures, he can’t pass them. This proposal has failed by increasingly wider margins every time it’s been proposed.

Measure 60 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore

Summary: This would require “merit-pay” for teachers in public schools.

Known Opposition: The Oregon Education Association will doubtless go all out against this measure.

Outlook: Leans to Likely No, in 2000 a similar measure was rejected with 65% of the vote. This measure is really nothing more than Sizemore’s latest vehicle for attacking the Teacher’s Union, which has pursued his illegal activities (he’s been nailed for racketeering multiple times) constantly.

Measure 61 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Kevin Mannix

Summary: This is Kevin Mannix’s draconian sentencing measure for property and low-level drug crimes.

Known Opposition: Most of the Legislature for one (See Measure 57) as well as most of the moderate and progressive groups in the state.

Outlook: Tossup, with the competing measure by the legislature, this one will be close, perhaps very close.

Measure 62 (C):

Chief Sponsor: Kevin Mannix.

Summary: Dedicates 15% of Oregon Lottery proceeds to crime fighting/prevention efforts.

Known Opposition: The current groups that receive lottery funds, schools and parks, have opposed this.

Outlook: Tossup, IMHO a bad idea but measures like this have fared pretty well in the past. Still, I think its a bit more likely to fail than I thought in the past.

Measure 63 (S):

Chief Sponsor; Bill Sizemore

Summary: This measure would allow minor building changes without a permit.

Known Opposition: A wide coalition led by building companies.

Outlook: Leans to Likely No, when even the building companies oppose a measure designed to help them, you know its not a good idea.

Measure 64 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore

Summary: Sizemore brings back an old and twice-failed idea to ban public-employee unions from using dues for political purposes.

Known Opposition: The progressive movement in this state will mobilize to kill this one.

Outlook: Likely No, Sizemore=without power, Public Employee Unions=Powerful, enough said.

Measure 65 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Former SOS Phil Keisling (D)

Summary: Creates a Top-Two Open Primary in which all parties run their candidates on the same ballot and the top two, regardless of party affiliation, advance to the general election.

Known Opposition: Both the Oregon D’s and R’s oppose this strongly.

Outlook: Leans No, the state parties will spend a lot of $ to kill it, so I’ll list it as leans no for now. Also the Oregonian is endorsing it, which typically means it’ll lose (the Oregonian has a history of endorsing losing candidates/propositions).

Congressional Races:

Ratings Changes:

OR-5 upgrade to Likely Dem-Schrader’s going to win, likely by more than Hooley ever did.

District 5

Candidates: State Senator Kurt Schrader (D) vs. Businessman and 2006 R Nominee Mike Erickson (R).

Registration Info: 165k Ds, 144k Rs, 88k NP/Others.

Summary: Erickson is burning his money running two smear ads against Schrader but has yet to run a single positive ad. The bottom line on this district is that, in the words of political analyst Larry Sabato:

Listen up kids: here’s not how to run for Congress. Lesson one: don’t pay for your girlfriend to have an abortion if you are a pro-life candidate. Lesson two: don’t lie about it when the story is confirmed by said girlfriend. Lesson three: don’t travel to Cuba, visit the famed Tropicana night club, attend a cigar festival and cockfight, and claim the trip was for “humanitarian purposes.” Lesson four: if failing to follow lesson three, don’t claim “I’ve never smoked a whole cigar in my entire life.”

Ladies and gentlemen, I present to you the campaign of Mike Erikson, still the Republican nominee for Oregon’s 5th Congressional district. Since the GOP primary, Erikson stock has fallen faster than Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers, and no Republican officeholder or conservative group has dared to endorse him. Once, the GOP was optimistic about its chances of capturing a rare swing district open seat, but no more. As it stands right now, Democrat Mark (sic) Schrader is a virtual lock (unless he has secrets of his own) to become the next Representative from the state of Oregon.

(Link: http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2008/house/?state=OR)

Rating: Likely Schrader.

Oregon Legislature:

Rankings:

Within each category, the highest rated seat is the one considered closest. E.g. the highest rate seat in the tossup category is considered the most of a “tossup”. Races within the “Safe” category are not ranked.

Key: *=Targeted Seat.

Oregon Senate

Current Composition: 18D, 11R, 1 I.

Projected Composition: 18D, 12R (1 I to D and one D to R).

Ratings Changes:

None.

Safe Races:

1 (Roseburg)-Kruse (R).

2 (Central Point)-Atkinston (R).

5 (Lincoln City)-Verger (D).

14 (West Slope/Beaverton)-Hass (D).

18 (Tigard/SW Portland)-Burdick (D).

21 (SE Portland)-Rosenbaum (D).

22 (Portland)-Carter (D).

23 (NE Portland)-Dingfelder (D), this is technically a net pickup of 1, as Avel Gordly is an I.

25 (Gresham)-Monnes Anderson (D)-This one may be a bit closer than expected because the Rs have fielded a candidate via write-in. I still believe it is going to be Monnes Anderson by a lot though.

28 (Klamath Falls)-Whitsett (R).

29 (Pendleton)-Nelson (R).

30 (Ontario)-Ferriolli (R).

Lean Races:

*1st-27 (Bend)

Candidates: Marien Lundgren (D) vs. Chris Telfer (R).

Registration: R+3k

Summary: This is Ben Westlund’s seat and it would be a huge accomplishment to hold it (he won it twice running as a Republican). That being said, I think its far more possible that a hold could occur now given the blue trend of Deschutes County, the center of this district.

Outlook: Leans Telfer.

2nd-9 (Stayton)

Candidates: Fred Girod (R-int) vs. Bob McDonald (D).

Registration: R+4k.

Summary: The fact that this race is even competitive ought to really scare the Rs. Girod still has the edge though.

Outlook: Leans Girod.

Oregon House:

Current Composition: 31 D, 29 R.

Projected Composition: 32 D, 20 R, 8 Tossups (all Rs) and it could be a lot worse for them.

Ratings Changes:

7 (Roseburg-Hanna (R) defending)-Downgraded to Likely Republican-I know the registration numbers or close but it is still Roseburg and Hanna has more than enough $ to fend off a challenger.

9 (Coos Bay-Roblan (D) defending)-Upgraded to Likely Dem-I just don’t see Arnie running into trouble in this rematch.

22 (Woodburn-Komp (D) defending)-Upgraded to Likely Dem-Komp’s opponent is a complete nut, enough said.

The following seats are rated either safe or likely:

Lean Races:

*1st-26 (Wilsonville)

Candidates: Matt Wingard (R-int.) vs. Jessica Adamson (D).

Registration: R+2k

Summary: Sometimes the opportunities just fall into your lap. In this case, it turns out that Wingard has been arrested for using a screwdriver on his son. The Repubs were panicked enough that incumbent Jerry Krummel resigned so that Wingard could go in as the “incumbent”. Adamson is running a good campaign but it still is Wilsonville so Wingard has the edge.

Outlook: Leans Wingard.

2nd-19 (Salem)

Candidates: Kevin Cameron (R-inc.) vs. Hanten (HD) Day (D).

Registration: R+ less than 1k

Summary: This is a district that should be more competitive than it has in the past. Cameron is vulnerable, especially to a good candidate such as Day. Interesting fact, Cameron runs the cafeteria that operates in the basement of the Oregon Capitol that I ate in probably three times a week during the 2005 session. Let’s just say, his food is much better than he is as a legislator but this is still a historically R-leaning district so he has the edge.

Outlook: Leans Cameron.

*3rd-49 (Gresham)

Candidates: John Nelsen (R) vs. Nick Kahl (D).

Registration: D+4.5k

Summary: Two years ago about the only major disappointment I had was Minnis winning this district. Republicans think Kahl is a lightweight because he’s young and relatively inexperienced. Kahl certainly would appear to face an uphill battle but this district’s D tilt should be enough to put him over the top.

Outlook: Leans Kahl.

*4th-30 (Hillsboro)

Candidates: David Edwards (D-inc.) vs. Andy Duyck (R).

Registration: D+2k

Summary: This is the Republican’s only targeted seat and Duyck might have been a good candidate ten or even four years ago. Instead, I think that the longtime Washington County politician will fall short against Edwards, who ran a campaign fraught with problems, much of it self-inflicted, in 2006, and still won. Hillsboro is changing and Edwards will take advantage of it.

Outlook: Leans Edwards.

5th-23 (Dallas)

Candidates: Jim Thompson (R) vs. Jason Brown (D).

Registration: R+2k

Summary: This open seat battle could be one for the books. That being said, I have to give the edge to Thompson for now because it is an R-leaning district.

Outlook: Leans Thompson.

6th-18 (Silverton)

Candidates: Vic Gilliam (R-int.) vs. Jim Gilbert (D/I).

Registration: R+2.2k

Summary: Jim Gilbert is back for another attempt at an upset here. This is clearly his best chance yet but it won’t be easy. If the Repubs lose this district, it will have been a big night.

Outlook: Leans Gilliam.

7th-59 (The Dalles)

Candidates: John Huffman (R-int.) vs. Mike Ahern (D).

Registration: R+1k

Summary: This was the district that shocked everyone in 2006 as it was almost a D pickup. However, I think Huffman will not be caught unaware as a result, though an upset is possible.

Outlook: Leans Huffman.

8th-15 (Albany)

Candidates: Andy Olson (R-inc.) vs. Dick Olsen (D).

Registration: D and R even

Summary: This district was not on anyone’s list but mine two years ago as potentially competitive. Now with an even registration mix, a chance for an upset is there. Olson, a former State Policeman, has the edge at this point though.

Outlook: Leans Olson.

9th-17 (Scio)

Candidates: Sherrie Sprenger (R-int.) vs. Dale Thackaberry (D).

Registration: R+2k

Summary: Following a bloody and divisive R primary, Thackaberry has a real chance to pull an upset. Add to that the fact that Sprenger has never won a general election here. Still, this is definitely a district with an R tilt, so it’ll be an uphill battle.

Outlook: Leans Sprenger.

10th-6 (Medford)

Candidates: Sal Esquivel (R-inc.) vs. Lynn Howe (D).

Registration: R+3k

Summary: No one believed me two years ago when I said this seat would be competitive, and then Esquivel barely eked out a win. My guess is that he won’t be caught napping this time, though.

Outlook: Leans Esquivel.

Tossup Races:

*1st-39 (Canby)

Candidates: Bill Kennemer (R) vs. Tony Forsberg (D).

Registration: D+1k

Summary: Kossack Mike Caudle almost pulled off a major upset here in 2006 against the then R-leader Wayne Scott. As an open seat race, this one is too close to call. Both candidates are well known and respected in the community. This one should be very close. If I had to give an edge to anyone it would likely be the Republican because he is very well known in the area.

Outlook: Tossup.

*2nd-52 (Corbett)

Candidates: Matt Lindland (R) vs. Suzanne VanOrman (D).

Registration: D+2k

Summary: In case you’re wondering, yes Matt Lindland is indeed otherwise known as UFC fighter Matt “The Law” Lindland. This is a dead tossup district this year and should be fun to watch. If I had to guess, I’d give a very slight edge to VanOrman right now.

Outlook: Tossup.

*3rd-54 (Bend)

Candidates: Chuck Burley (R-inc.) vs. Judy Stiegler (D).

Registration: D+1.5k

Summary: This district has been trending blue over the past several years thanks largely to an influx of California retirees. This could well be the year Stiegler, who barely lost to Burley in an open seat race here four years ago, breaks through and wins it. Bend is probably the area that is suffering most from the recent economic downturn as its once booming housing market collapses, making this a slightly better seat for the dems.

Outlook: Tossup.

*4th-37 (West Linn)

Candidates: Scott Bruun (R-inc.) vs. Michele Eberle (D).

Registration: D+ less than 1k.

Summary: Bruun is a well-known figure in this district; his family has run a construction business for over 100 years in the area. Still, this year he will have to fight hard to keep this swing district, which now has a very slight D edge. Eberle is running by far the most ads of any candidate on either side of any legislative race so far, at least in my area.

Outlook: Tossup.

*5th-51 (Clackamas)

Candidates: Linda Flores (R-inc.) vs. Brent Barton (D).

Registration: D+1k

Summary: How I would love to get rid of the racist Flores. Barton has as good a chance as anyone and has huge financial backing. It would be so sweet if we could pull this off.

Outlook: Tossup.

6th-20 (Independence/Monmouth)

Candidates: Vicki Berger (R-inc.) vs. Richard Riggs (D).

Registration: D+1k

Summary: Berger is one of the last remaining liberal Republicans that Oregon used to develop like crazy. She’s in for fight for her life this time due much more to both the state of the Republican party and the slight D registration edge though.

Outlook: Tossup.

7th-24 (McMinnville)

Candidates: Jim Wiedner (R) vs. Bernt Hansen (D).

Registration: D and R even.

Summary: This was the seat that Kossack Sal Peralta almost won in 2006. If Hansen can run a good campaign, a win is definitely possible here.

Outlook: Tossup.

8th-50 (Fairview)

Candidates: John Lim (R-inc.) vs. Greg Matthews (D).

Registration: D+3k

Summary: How Lim keeps winning here is a mystery. He probably wins but it’ll be closer than its been for a while.

Outlook: Tossup.

Well that’s it, let me know what you think.

More Oregon Political News: Dems Surge Ahead and More!

I had not planned to publish another Oregon political news roundup but a few stories in today’s news cry out for me to make them known to the blogosphere. They are:

1. Matt Wingard’s troubles deepen-The State Legislative candidate’s (R) child abuse issues may be worse than previously thought.

2. Oregon Dems blast the bailout.

3. Oregon Dems surge in registration in OR-5.

Cross-posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/sh…

Matt Wingard’s Troubles Deepen:

Source: http://www.oregonlive.com/news/index.ssf/2008/09/a_political_ad_notes_wilsonvil.html.

As reported yesterday, the Oregon D’s have launched an ad critical of State Rep. candidate (and interim incumbent) Matt Wingard (R-Wilsonville) regarding his 2002 conviction for misdemeanor assault for attacking his then 7-year old son with a screwdriver. However, the story does not end there. According to filings made over custody of the child in 2004 (Wingard and the child’s mother never married), the child’s mother claims that this incident was “part of a history of abusive behavior by Wingard, including slapping that left bruises.” This begs the question of how the Republicans can really claim to be family first if they can’t even pick a candidate who takes care of their own family.

Oregon Dems Blast the Bailout:

Source: http://www.oregonlive.com/news/index.ssf/2008/09/defazio_urges_congress_to_go_s.html

Led by longtime OR Congressman Peter DeFazio (D-OR4), Oregon Democrats stood up against Henry Paulson’s $700B bailout plan in unison. As Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR) said, “Unless we address the underlying faults in the system that brought us to this financial abyss in the first place, we may simply be building the world’s largest bridge to nowhere.” By contrast, Gordon Smith couldn’t seem to make up his mind, stating that “We’re looking at a bad option and potentially worse options.” This is perhaps further proof of how out of touch Gordon Smith is, not surprising given his substantial wealth and strong record as a Bush clone. Still, I am proud to say that Oregon Democrats stand united against this giveaway.

Oregon Dems Surge in Registration in OR-5

Source: http://www.oregonlive.com/news/index.ssf/2008/09/democratic_registration_surges.html

Oregon’s fifth congressional district has never been considered safe for the Democrats. Since first taking office, retiring Rep. Darlene Hooley (D-OR) had never won with even as much as 60% of the vote and always faced a registration disadvantage. Well, that is no longer true as the Democrats now hold an edge of about 20k in the district, which combined with the myriad problems of Republican candidate Mike Erickson, should give Schrader a relatively easy win.

Let me know what you think.

Oregon Race Chart: A September Look

The following is my look at the races in Oregon this fall, from statewide down to state legislative and excluding ballot measures. Unlike my previous updates, I rank each race within its category, rather than by district number.

Cross-Posted from Loaded Orygun: http://loadedorygun.net/showDi…

Data Sources:

The Most Recent Voter Registration Data is at: http://www.sos.state.or.us/elections/votreg/jul08.pdf

Candidate information comes from ORESTAR: https://secure.sos.state.or.us/eim/jsp/CEMainPage.jsp?CONTENT_PAGE=cf/CFSearchPage.jsp

The Statewide Layout:

Total Registered Voters: About 2.05 Million.

Democrats: 42% (+210k vs. Republicans)

Republicans: 33%.

Nonpartisan/Others: 25%.

Key:

Size of Districts:

State House: Aprox. 55k.

State Senate: Aprox. 110k.

The incumbent is always listed first, or failing that, the incumbent party. All minor parties are listed after the two major parties.

Party Key:

D=Democratic

R=Republican

G=Pacific Green

C=Constitution

L=Libertarian

I=Independent Party (This IS a political party, NOT those running as independents).

N=Unaffiliated, otherwise known as Independents.

P=Peace Party (Ralph Nader’s Oregon party).

Rankings:

Within each category, the highest rated seat is the one considered closest. E.g. the highest rate seat in the tossup category is considered the most of a “tossup”.

Statewide Races:

US President

Candidates: Sen. John McCain (R) vs. Sen. Barack Obama (D), Ralph Nader (P), Cynthia McKinney (G), Bob Barr (L) and Chuck Baldwin (C).

Summary: Its September now and I have yet to see any ads by either campaign. However, the Obama folks are clearly on the ground in this state and McCain has just as clearly made now effort. Count 7 EVs for the Big O, the only question is the margin.

Rating: Leans to Likely Obama.

US Senate

Candidates: Sen. Gordon Smith (R-inc) vs. Speaker of the OR House Jeff Merkley (D) and David Brownlow (C).

Summary: Smith, the DSCC and Merkley are busy slinging mostly negative ads at each other. In fact, only Merkley is really running any positive ads at this point as Smith’s only positive ad is an issue ad on health care sponsored by a major business group. This race has not been polled for a while so I would guess Smith is still sightly ahead. Yet, the dynamics of this state make this race a tossup.

Rating: Tossup.

Secretary of State

Candidates: State Senate Majority Leader Kate Brown (D) vs. Eugene TV Reporter Rick Dancer (R) and Seth Allan Wooley (G).

Summary: Kate Brown is going to absolutely kick the crap out of Dancer. Dancer isn’t even that good of a candidate. On an early appearance on Lars Larson’s talk radio program (he’s a well known conservative for those who don’t know), he seemed unaware of much of what the SOS actually does.

Rating: Likely to Safe Brown.

Attorney General

John Kroger (D) faces only minor party candidates and should cruise.

State Treasurer

Candidates: State Senator Ben Westlund (D) vs. former Kulongoski staffer Allan Alley (R) and Michael Marsh (C)

Summary: It is always so fan to see the Republicans go after Westlund, who used to be one of them until he saw the light. Ben has the support of those on both sides of the aisle and should cruise to an easy victory here. Not to mention Alley’s own problems as well (he ran his company into the ground).

Rating: Likely to Safe Westlund.

Labor Commissioner (Technically a nonpartisan race, 2 year vacancy filling election)

Candidates: Former State Senator Brad Avakian (D-inc.) vs. Founder, Instructor/Provider of a physical and mental fitness program Pavel Goberman (D) and Losing CD1 Candidate Mark Welzycko (D).

Summary: Avakian should have little trouble, given his status as a well known figure in state politics.

Rating: Safe Avakian.

Congressional Races:

Safe Races:

1st-District 2: Walden (R-inc) will have little trouble. If the margin is under 10% that’s a victory for the Ds.

2nd-District 3: Blumenauer (D-inc) is well-loved in this district and for good reason.

3rd-District 4: DeFazio (D-inc) faces only minor party opposition.

Likely Races:

1st-District 1: Wu (D-inc) should have little trouble with Joel Haugen abandoning the Republcian party to run as a member of the Independent Party. The Republicans do not have a candidate.

Lean Races:

1st and only-District 5

Candidates: State Senator Kurt Schrader (D) vs. Businessman and 2006 R Nominee Mike Erickson (R).

Registration Info: 165k Ds, 144k Rs, 88k NP/Others.

Summary: Time was this was considered one of the most contentious house races in the country. Then three things happened. First, the Obama registration boost changed this district from one with a very slight D edge to a somewhat substantial one. Second, Kevin Mannix, who lost the R primary to Erickson, accused Erickson, who had claimed he was pro-life, of paying for a former girlfriend’s abortion. This assertion was proven to be at least somewhat true and the resulting turmoil, along with some other recent discoveries has knocked Erickson well behind the pace. Then, to add to Erickson’s pain came the discovery that he had made a trip to Cuba that appears to be nothing more than a glorified vacation. Schrader just went on the air and Erickson doesn’t appear to be contesting this one too much. Still, he can self-finance enough that this race can’t be upgraded for the Ds.

Rating: Leans Schrader.

Oregon Legislature:

Note: Races within the “Safe” category are not ranked.

Oregon Senate

Current Composition: 18D, 11R, 1 I.

Projected Composition: 18D, 12R (1 I to D and one D to R).

Safe Races:

1 (Roseburg)-Kruse (R).

2 (Central Point)-Atkinston (R).

5 (Lincoln City)-Verger (D).

14 (West Slope/Beaverton)-Hass (D).

18 (Tigard/SW Portland)-Burdick (D).

21 (SE Portland)-Rosenbaum (D).

22 (Portland)-Carter (D).

23 (NE Portland)-Dingfelder (D), this is technically a net pickup of 1, as Avel Gordly is an I.

25 (Gresham)-Monnes Anderson (D).

28 (Klamath Falls)-Whitsett (R).

29 (Pendleton)-Nelson (R).

30 (Ontario)-Ferriolli (R).

Lean Races:

1st-27 (Bend)

Candidates: Marien Lundgren (D) vs. Chris Telfer (R).

Registration: R+3k

Summary: This is Ben Westlund’s seat and it would be a huge accomplishment to hold it (he won it twice running as a Republican). That being said, I think its far more possible that a hold could occur now given the blue trend of Deschutes County, the center of this district.

Outlook: Leans Telfer.

Oregon House:

Current Composition: 31 D, 29 R.

Projected Composition: 32 D, 20 R, 8 Tossups (all Rs) and it could be a lot worse for the Rs.

The following seats are rated either safe or likely:

1 (Gold Beach)-Krieger (R).

2 (Myrtle Creek)-Freeman (R).

3 (Grants Pass)-Maurer (R).

4 (Central Point)-Richardson (R).

5 (Ashland)-Buckley (D).

8 (Eugene)-Holvey (D).

10 (Newport)-Cowan (D)-She won this seat by all of 750 votes two years ago and the Rs couldn’t find an opponent for her.

11 (Eugene)-Barnhart (D).

12 (Springfield)-Beyer (D).

13 (Eugene)-Nathanson (D).

14 (Eugene)-Edwards (D).

16 (Corvallis)-Gelser (D).

21 (Salem)-Clem (D).

25 (Keizer)-Thatcher (R).

27 (West Slope, my district!)-Read (D).

28 (Beaverton)-Barker (D).

29 (Hillsboro)-Riley (D).

31 (Clatskanie)-Witt (D).

32 (Cannon Beach)-Boone (D).

33 (Portland)-Greenlick (D).

34 (Beaverton)-Harker (D).

35 (Tigard)-Galizio (D).

36 (Portland)-Nolan (D).

38 (Lake Oswego)-Garrett (D).

40 (Oregon City)-Hunt (D).

41 (Milwaukie)-Tomei (D).

42 (Portland)-Koppel-Bailey (D).

43 (Portland)-Shields (D).

44 (Portland)-Kotek (D).

45 (Portland)-Dembrow (D).

46 (Portland)-Cannon (D).

47 (Portland)-J. Smith (D).

48 (Happy Valley)-Schaufler (D).

53 (Sunriver)-Whisnant (R).

55 (Medford)-Gilliam (R).

56 (Klamath Falls)-Garrard (R).

57 (Heppner)-G. Smith (R).

58 (Pendleton)-Jenson (R).

60 (Ontario)-Benz (R).

Lean Races:

1st-26 (Wilsonville)

Candidates: Matt Wingard (R-int.) vs. Jessica Adamson (D).

Registration: R+2k

Summary: Sometimes the opportunities just fall into your lap. In this case, it turns out that Wingard has been arrested for hitting his children before. The Repubs were panicked enough that incumbent Jerry Krummel resigned so that Wingard could go in as the “incumbent”. Wingard also raised a few eyebrows when he sent out a “legislative update” mere days after taking office, despite the fact that he had not yet voted on a single bill or even attended a committee hearing (h/t to Loaded O for this: Wingard: I Can Haz Spend Ur Money, C?). My heart tells me this will be close but my head tells me that Wingard still has a slight edge.

Outlook: Leans Wingard.

3rd-49 (Gresham)

Candidates: John Nelsen (R) vs. Nick Kahl (D).

Registration: D+4.5k

Summary: Two years ago about the only major disappointment I had was Minnis winning this district. Republicans think Kahl is a lightweight because he’s young and relatively inexperienced. They’re wrong, he’s a great candidate, especially with the youth voter empowerment machine known as the Oregon Bus Project (http://busproject.org/) on his side. With Mannix out of the picture, this should be a D pickup, especially with the substantial D edge in this district, if they vote, which they did not in 2006.

Outlook: Leans Kahl.

4th-30 (Hillsboro)

Candidates: David Edwards (D-inc.) vs. Andy Duyck (R).

Registration: D+2k

Summary: The Republicans are all excited that Duyck is going to be their candidate here. The well-known Washington County Commissioner is a solid candidate but this is not the Hillsboro that existed ten or even five years ago. It has taken a solid blue turn and add to that the fact that Edwards survived some of the most vicious smears of any candidate in 2006 and still won to give him a slight edge. This is by far the best Republican chance for a pickup though.

Outlook: Leans Edwards.

10th-9 (Coos Bay)

Candidates: Arnie Roblan (D-inc.) vs. Al Pearn (R).

Registration: D+3k

Summary: This 2006 rematch should not be any different than the last one. Roblan has a good read on this district and should win his easiest battle yet.

Outlook: Leans Roblan.

11th-6 (Medford)

Candidates: Sal Esquivel (R-inc.) vs. Lynn Howe (D).

Registration: R+3k

Summary: No one believed me two years ago when I said this seat would be competitive, and then Esquivel barely eked out a win. My guess is that he won’t be caught napping this time, though.

Outlook: Leans Esquivel.

12th-7 (Roseburg)

Candidates: Bruce Hanna (R-inc) vs. Donald Nordin (D).

Registration: R+1.4k

Summary: This would be my shocker of the year if an upset happened. This district, which has been solidly red for decades, or so it seems, has seen a huge drop in the Republican registration edge. Hanna is also not the greatest politician in the world to begin with but still has an edge here. He also has a huge cash edge as the minority leader from the OR House.

Outlook: Leans Hanna.

13th-22 (Woodburn)

Candidates: Betty Komp (D-inc.) vs. Tom Chereck (R).

Registration: D+2k

Summary: I have to put this as competitive because its Woodburn. However, Komp has really done a great job in this district and should win pretty easily. Interestingly, this district has the lowest number of registered voters in the state, likely due to the large number of undocumented workers living here.

Outlook: Leans Komp.

Tossup Races:

1st-39 (Canby)

Candidates: Bill Kennemer (R) vs. Tony Forsberg (D).

Registration: D+1k

Summary: Kossack Mike Caudle almost pulled off a major upset here in 2006 against the then R-leader Wayne Scott. As an open seat race, this one is too close to call. Both candidates are well known and respected in the community. This one should be very close.

Outlook: Tossup.

2nd-52 (Corbett)

Candidates: Matt Lindland (R) vs. Suzanne VanOrman (D).

Registration: D+2k

Summary: In case you’re wondering, yes Matt Lindland is indeed otherwise known as UFC fighter Matt “The Law” Lindland. This is a dead tossup district this year and should be fun to watch. If I had to guess, I’d give a very slight edge to VanOrman right now.

Outlook: Tossup.

3rd-54 (Bend)

Candidates: Chuck Burley (R-inc.) vs. Judy Stiegler (D).

Registration: D+1.5k

Summary: This district has been trending blue over the past several years thanks largely to an influx of California retirees. This could well be the year Stiegler, who barely lost to Burley in an open seat race here four years ago, breaks through and wins it.

Outlook: Tossup.

4th-50 (Fairview)

Candidates: John Lim (R-inc.) vs. Greg Matthews (D).

Registration: D+3k

Summary: How Lim keeps winning here is a mystery. He should be in for the fight of his life this year with this district clearly trending blue.

Outlook: Tossup.

5th-51 (Clackamas)

Candidates: Linda Flores (R-inc.) vs. Brent Barton (D).

Registration: D+1k

Summary: How I would love to get rid of the racist Flores. Barton has as good a chance as anyone and has huge financial backing. I’m moving this race to tossup for that reason alone.

Outlook: Tossup.

7th-37 (West Linn)

Candidates: Scott Bruun (R-inc.) vs. Michele Eberle (D).

Registration: D+ less than 1k.

Summary: Bruun is a well-known figure in this district; his family has run a construction business for over 100 years in the area. Still, this year he will have to fight hard to keep this swing district, which now has a very slight D edge.

Outlook: Tossup.

8th-24 (McMinnville)

Candidates: Jim Wiedner (R) vs. Bernt Hansen (D).

Registration: D and R even.

Summary: This was the seat that Kossack Sal Peralta almost won in 2006. If Hansen can run a good campaign, a win is definitely possible here.

Outlook: Tossup.

Well that’s it, let me know what you think.

Cuba Libre: Republican Mike Erickson (OR-5) and his Cuba Vacation

I had been hearing rumors from friends who work for the Oregonian that a major story was about to break concerning Mike Erickson. I do not know if this story is it but it’s a fun one anyways. Simply put, Mike Erickson claimed that he had taken a trip to Cuba in 2004 as an attempt to work with humanitarian organizations. Instead, it appears that instead he used it as an excuse to have a good time, smoke a lot of Cuban cigars and have some fun cock fighting.

Major h/t to the Oregonian for this story: http://www.oregonlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2008/08/mike_ericksons_trip_to_cuba.html#comments

Cross-Posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/sh…

According to the Oregonian:

Mike Erickson, Republican candidate for the U.S. House, made a six-day visit to Cuba in 2004 that he described as a “humanitarian trip” to help disabled Cubans oppressed by Fidel Castro. But the visit was actually a vacation that included marlin fishing, nightclub visits and Cuban cigars.

, Link is above in the intro.

In a letter released to the Press, Erickson claims that he undertook this trip as a means to bring needed medical supplies to impoverished Cubans and that he observed first hand “just how horrific Castro’s stronghold on the nation had oppressed and mistreated people.”

Link to the letter here: http://blog.oregonlive.com/politics_impact/2008/08/IMAGE0001.pdf

His itinerary tells a far different story, however. Instead of a humanitarian mission, it appears Erickson went down to Cuba to attend a cigar convention and have a good time living the life of luxury. In fact, the itinerary seems to indicate that the company which sponsored his trip even provided some in his group (if not Erickson himself) with papers showing they never actually visited Cuba but Mexico. I don’t know enough about the embargo to know whether this is any sort of problem but it sounds wrong at least.

Link to the itinerary here: http://blog.oregonlive.com/politics_impact/2008/08/IMAGE0002.pdf

What’s Next:

This is yet another blow to Erickson’s fast-fading chance to win this once thought to be tossup seat in Oregon. I don’t know this will force Erickson out of the race but he has until August 26 if he wishes to do so, at which point the Republicans can name a replacement.

Let me know what you think.

This Month in Oregon Politics

With the end of July nearing and the election now only 99 days away, I thought it was appropriate to publish a review of the last month’s action in Oregon politics. In addition, I preview what lies ahead in August and give updates on previous race ratings or other information I have talked about in my earlier diaries.

Cross-posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/sh…

Stock Watch:

Who is up and down in Oregon politics this month:

Up: Jeff Merkley. Fresh off his best fund-raising quarter ever, Merkley erased a 9% deficit to Gordon Smith during the past month, even though Smith was on the air and Merkley largely was not.

Down: Gordon Smith. Already flailing about, Smith appears desperate to show that he is really a centrist, despite all the evidence to the contrary. His recent decision not to attend the RNC Convention proves he knows that John McCain is an anchor on his campaign.

Up: Oregon Democrats. As you will see below, the Oregon Democratic Party has seen rating upgrades in a number of races and has not lost ground anywhere. With a strong group of candidates at all levels, this could be a banner year for the DPO.

Down: Oregon Republicans. Down, with no money and with rapidly fading chances at all levels, Oregon Republicans are flailing out wildly. With the demise of a number of their prized legislative recruits for a number of reasons (Jeff Duyck violating residency requirements, Tony Marino turning out to be crazy) and with a huge cash disadvantage to the Oregon Ds, they are in trouble.

Up: Bill Sizemore. As much as it pains me to say this, Sizemore had a good month in July. He qualified all his initiatives and although most, if not all, are unlikely to pass, he still thumbed our noses in it again.

Down: Bill Bradbury. Long one of my favorite Oregon politicians, Bill Bradbury has fallen hard in the last month. With the revelation that Bradbury did not investigate potential signature fraud by conservative groups (info here: http://www.blueoregon.com/2008/07/citizens-begin.html) I honestly won’t be too disappointed when Kate Brown replaces him in January. One of his most visible jobs is to enforce the signature laws and he appears he may not have done so, according to our dear friends at Our Oregon and other wonderful liberal interest groups.

Upcoming Deadlines and Interesting Dates:

August 2-All signature verification must be completed (already done), and ballot measure numbers are assigned. See below for more.

August 26-Voter’s Pamphlet Statements Due. A rough version will be posted soon after.

August 29-Last day to withdraw/replace a candidate. All candidates on the ballot at that point are considered the final candidates. The only exception is if a candidate dies in a non-federal race, under the state constitution the SOS may elect to postpone the election for a short period of time if necessary.

August 30-The seven day rule for campaign finance reporting goes into effect, requiring all contributions and expenditures made from this date to election day be reported within 7 days. Currently, candidates have 30 days to report. Violations are subject to progressively harsher penalties.

Measure by Measure, a Ballot Measure Update:

Assuming that Our Oregon is not successful in its lawsuit over possibly fraudulent signatures on Sizemore’s initiatives, here are the current initiatives for this year’s ballot, numbers to be assigned early next week:

Key:

S-Statutory

C-Constitutional

Numbers listed are initiative petition numbers. Ballot measure numbers this year will begin with #54 and go sequentially from there. The four legislative referrals will be first, followed by all the qualified citizen initiatives.

Qualified:

Legislative Referrals:

405-C-Corrects a bizarre flaw in the state constitution that prohibits citizens under 21 from voting in school board elections (a provision which is, of course, not in effect but should be removed anyways).

406-C-Minor fixes to the state’s redistricting process.

407-C-Repeals the Double Majority law requiring that 50% of registered voters cast ballots in an election for a bond measure to pass.

408-S-Proposes an alternative to Kevin Mannix’s (R-Of Course) property crime sentence minimum initiative. Focuses state policy on treatment rather than prison for low level drug and property crimes.

Citizen Constitutional and Statutory Measures:

3-S-Makes federal income taxes fully deductible on state returns. This measure largely benefits high wage earners and would blow a huge hole in the state’s budget.

19-S-This measure would require English immersion rather than ESL for children for whom English is not their primary language.

20-S-This would require “merit-pay” for teachers in public schools.

21-S-This measure would allow minor building changes without a permit.

25-S-Sizemore brings back an old and twice-failed idea to ban public-employee unions from using dues for political purposes.

40-S-This is Kevin Mannix’s draconian sentencing measure for property and low-level drug crimes.

41-C-Dedicates 15% of Oregon Lottery proceeds to crime fighting/prevention efforts.

109-S-Creates a Top-Two Open Primary in which all parties run their candidates on the same ballot and the top two, regardless of party affiliation, advance to the general election.

Failed to Qualify:

51-S-Limits contingency fee awards in lawsuits. Your classic “lawsuit reform” measure.

53-S-Establishes penalties for “frivolous lawsuits.”

Race Rating Changes:

From my last update, posted here on July 10: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/7/10/12954/7313/791/549408.

US Senate: Upgraded from Lean Smith to Tossup. With the new polling showing Merkley with a small lead, up from 9% down last month, this race has clearly moved to tossup territory. GAME ON!

Oregon Legislature:

Oregon Senate: OR-14 (West Slope, my home district!), Mark Hass (R), upgrade from Likely Hass to Safe Hass. Time was this was a competitive district, not anymore. When last this seat was up, the registration gap was 3k, now its 10k. With Michaels not raising nearly enough cash to make this competitive, this race goes off the competitive races board.

Oregon House:

OR-29 (Hillsboro), Riley (D) upgrade from Lean Riley to Likely Riley. Jeff Duyck was the only real chance the OR GOP had in this district. With him out of the way since it was revealed he didn’t actually live in the district, it’s hard to believe this one will be too close, especially with former GOOPer Terry Rilling running as an independent.

OR-35 (Tigard), Galizio (D) upgrade from Leans Galizio to Likely Galizio. With Marino becoming more and more of a laughing stock every day, Galizio looks poised to win by far his biggest win of his three races here.

OR-38 (Lake Oswego), Garrett (D) upgrade from Lean Garrett to Likely Garrett. I know Steve Griffith (R) personally, he’s a nice guy and I respect him a lot. That being said, he’s going to get his ass kicked in this district as he has been seemingly unable to raise nearly the amount of $ required to be competitive.

OR-51 (Clackamas), Flores (R), upgrade from Lean Flores to Tossup. With the large amount of cash Flores’s opponent Brent Barton (D) has managed to raise in this district, he has certainly made this one a close race. It should be fun to watch.

Let me know what you think.

The State of Oregon Politics

This latest in my continuing series of diaries on Oregon politics will discuss the current status of Oregon’s political landscape by using voter registration as a guide. With this model, we can see clearly how strongly the Democratic party is positioned for this fall.

Cross-Posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/sh…

Key:

Names listed are those of the party’s candidate holding the seat.

For Congressional districts, multiply the State Senate values by five.

Strong District: Oregon House Voter Reg. Difference 10k or more, Senate Voter Reg. 20k or more.

Likely District: Oregon House 5-10k Difference, Senate 10-20k Difference.

Lean District: Oregon House 3-5k Difference, Senate 6-9k Difference.

Tossup District: Oregon House less than 3k Difference, Senate less than 6k Difference.

*=Opposition party has registration edge of 1k or more.

x=Candidate is unopposed (by a major party candidate).

All values are rounded to the nearest thousand, source of data is: http://www.sos.state.or.us/elections/may202008/p08stats.pdf.

My read on the state of the races is here: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/7/10/12954/7313/791/549408.

Congressional Races:

District 1 (D): D+ 57k, Likely D.

District 2 (R): R+ 33k, Leans R.

District 3 (D): D+ 125k, Strong D.

District 4 (D): D+ 36k, Leans D.

District 5 (D): D+ 19k, Tossup.

Oregon Legislature:

Oregon Senate:

Current Composition: 18D, 11R, 1 I.

Seats NOT up for re-election this year:

Total: 14 (Due to a vacancy filler election in one district).

D-Held: 10.

R-Held; 4.

Summary:

Strong D: 3

Likely D: 2

Lean D: 3

Tossup D: 1.

Strong R: 0.

Likely R: 2.

Leans R: 3.

Tossup R: 2.

Uncontested Races:

D-Held: 5, 3 Strong, 2 Lean.

R-Held: 3, 1 Likely, 2 Lean.

Districts in which the opposition party has a voter registration edge:

D: 1, Westlund’s seat.

R: 0.

Up For Re-Election:

Strong Districts:

21 (SE Portland)-Rosenbaum (D)-x.

22 (Portland)-Carter (D)-x.

23 (NE Portland)-Dingfelder (D)-x.

Likely Districts:

2 (Central Point)-Atkinston (R).

17 (Beaverton)-Bonamicci (D)-2 year vacancy filler)

18 (Tigard/SW Portland)-Burdick (D).

28 (Klamath Falls)-Whitsett (R)-x.

Lean Districts:

1 (Roseburg)-Kruse (R).

5 (Lincoln City)-Verger (D)-x.

14 (West Slope)-Hass (D).

25 (Gresham)-Monnes Anderson (D)-x.

29 (Pendleton)-Nelson (R)-x.

30 (Ontario)-Ferriolli (R)-x.

Tossup Districts:

9 (Stayton)-Girod (R).

12 (McMinville)-Boquist (R).

27 (Bend)-Telfer (R)*-Pickup from Westlund (D).

Oregon House:

All the seats are up for election this year.

Current Composition: 31D, 29R.

Summary:

Strong D: 9.

Likely D: 10.

Leans D: 7.

Tossup D: 5.

Strong R: 0.

Likely R: 4.

Leans R: 5.

Tossup R: 20.

Uncontested Races:

D-Held: 19, 7 Strong, 6 Likely, 4 Lean, 2 Tossup.

R-Held: 6, 4 Likely, 1 Lean, 1 Tossup.

Districts in which the opposition party has a voter registration edge:

D-Held: 0.

R-Held: 6 (Berger, Nelsen, Lim, Flores, Lindland, Burley).

Strong Districts:

8 (Eugene)-Holvey (D)-x.

33 (Portland)-Greenlick (D)-x.

36 (Portland)-Nolan (D).

41 (Milwaukie)-Tomei (D).

42 (Portland)-Koppel-Bailey (D)-x.

43 (Portland)-Shields (D)-x.

44 (Portland)-Kotek (D)-x.

45 (Portland)-Dembrow (D)-x.

46 (Portland)-Cannon (D)-x.

Likely Districts:

4 (Central Point)-Richardson (R)-x.

5 (Ashland)-Buckley (D)-x.

10 (Newport)-Cowan (D)-x.

11 (Eugene)-Barnhart (D)-x.

12 (Springfield)-Beyer (D).

13 (Eugene)-Nathanson (D)-x.

16 (Corvallis)-Gelser (D).

27 (West Slope, my district!)-Read (D).

31 (Clatskanie)-Witt (D)-x.

38 (Lake Oswego)-Garrett (D).

47 (Portland)-J. Smith (D)-x.

55 (Medford)-Gilliam (R)-x.

56 (Klamath Falls)-Garrard (R)-x.

60 (Ontario)-Benz (R)-x.

Lean Districts:

2 (Myrtle Creek)-Freeman (R).

3 (Grants Pass)-Maurer (R).

6 (Medford)-Esquivel (R).

9 (Coos Bay)-Roblan (D).

14 (Eugene)-Edwards (D)-x.

28 (Beaverton)-Barker (D)-x.

34 (Beaverton)-Harker (D).

35 (Tigard)-Galizio (D).

40 (Oregon City)-Hunt (D)-x.

48 (Happy Valley)-Schaufler (D)-x.

53 (Sunriver)-Whisnant (R).

57 (Heppner)-G. Smith (R)-x.

Tossup Districts:

1 (Gold Beach)-Krieger (R).

7 (Roseburg)-Hanna (R).

15 (Albany)-Olson (R).

17 (Scio)-Sprenger (R).

18 (Silverton)-Gilliam (R).

19 (Salem)-Cameron (R).

20 (Independence/Monmouth)-Berger (R)*.

21 (Salem)-Clem (D)-x.

22 (Woodburn)-Komp (D).

23 (Dallas)-Thompson (R).

24 (McMinnville)-Wiedner (R).

25 (Keizer)-Thatcher (R)-x.

26 (Wilsonville)-Wingard (R).

29 (Hillsboro)-Riley (D).

30 (Hillsboro)-Edwards (D).

32 (Cannon Beach)-Boone (D)-x.

37 (West Linn)-Bruun (R).

39 (Canby)-Kennemer (R).

49 (Gresham)-Nelsen (R)*.

50 (Fairview)-Lim (R)*.

51 (Clackamas)-Flores (R)*.

52 (Corbett)-Lindland (R)*.

54 (Bend)-Burley (R)*.

58 (Pendleton)-Jenson (R).

59 (The Dalles)-Huffman (R).

Let me know what you think.