Oregon Initiative 66, 67 Election, Jan 26

Local campaign workers have been concerned that this election would be affected by what happened in MA. I think they’re nuts, but we’ll see this evening.

Officially, election day is today (Jan 26). In reality, the election has been going on for a bit, since the ballots arrived in our mailboxes a couple of weeks ago.

The issues are Initiatives 66 and 67. For a quickie summary, see http://voteyesfororegon.org/wi…

Measures 66 & 67 raise the $10 corporate minimum for the first time since 1931, and increase the marginal tax rate on the richest Oregonians (those who make more than $250,000 a year).

Since all ballots must be in official Oregon vote boxes by 8pm today (I just dropped off ours at the library), we don’t suffer from the Washington time lag. (WA state accepts ballots postmarked by election day.)

Results should be known tonight/tomorrow morning, but the latest polling had the initiatives winning by a reasonable margin.

Initiative 66 raises the marginal tax rate on >$250k gross income

Initiative 67 raises the corporate minimum from $10 to $150

The poll assumes a current OR party registration of

D 47%

R 36%

I 17%

It’s a Tim Hibbitts poll, which is pretty much the gold standard for polling in Oregon.

Both measures were leading in the Hibbitts poll by 49/38. I fully expect that margin has closed a bit in these past few days, but that’s normal for a closely fought initiative campaign, especially when voters are asked to raise taxes.

Results should appear this evening, starting sometime after 8pm Pacific time at the OR SoS website at http://www.sos.state.or.us/ele… .

Updated thought – the Oregon “anti-tax” ads were more focused on the business tax (67) as opposed to the increase in taxes on >250k income (66). That’s reflected in the slight margin difference (66 is winning by a bit more than 67). But the difference in margins is less than 1%.

Second updated thought – no effect from the MA special. Yes, the Hibbitts poll suggests that a solid majority believe that we’re going in the wrong direction, but that anger didn’t affect the outcome of this election. (the MA Senate special election happened between this poll and the election)

Third updated thought (Wed 6:30 am PST) made a mistake in my vote watching – when county data says “100%”, it means 100% of those votes tabulated and counted.

(It takes a bit of time even for computers to check signatures on envelopes, open them up, before the optical scan ballots can be fed to the computer readers. Ballots are in a “secrecy” envelope, inserted into a signed mailing envelope, so there are two envelopes to open for each ballot.)

Votes that have come in late that day (e.g. from official collection stations at county libraries) aren’t yet all counted. The margins may still fluctuate a bit as those votes are counted today. (I think some counties sent their tabulaters home for the night.)

However, my eyeballing suggests that we’re now at about 97-98% counted, but maybe 3/4 of the outstanding ballots are from Multnomah Co, so the margin could grow back a bit.

Current results from the OR SoS

66 (raise the marginal rate on incomes > 250k)

yes 53.69%

no  46.31%

67 (raise the min bus tax from $10)

yes 53.03%

no  46.97%

Congressional races 2010: OH, OK, OR

Previous diaries

Summary:

 OH has 18 representatives: 10 D, 8 R

 OK has  5 representatives:  1 D, 4 R

 OR has  5 representatives:  4 D, 1 R

Possibly vulnerable:

 OH-01 (D)

 OH-02 (R)

 OH-15 (D)

 OH-16 (D)

Sources:

House vote in 2008 from WaPo

VoteView (ranked from 1 for most liberal to 447 for most conservative; more than 435 because some districts had more than one rep in the 110th congress)

Race Tracker

Obama vote by CD from Swing State

National Atlas for maps

and my previous diaries.

District: OH-01

Location Southwestern OH, bordering IN and KY, including Cincinnati map

Cook PVI D + 1

Representative Steve Dreihaus (D) Not confirmed

VoteView NA

First elected 2008

2008 margin 51-49 over Steve Chabot

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 55-44

Bush margin 2004 51-50

Current opponents Steven Chabot

Demographics   27th fewest Latinos (1.1%)

Assessment Dreihaus ousted Chabot, the incumbent; now, there’s  a rematch.  Vulnerable.  Both Dreihaus and Chabot have raised about $400K.

District: OH-02

Location  Central part of southern OH, bordering KY  map

Cook PVI R + 13

Representative Jean Schmidt (R) Not confirmed

VoteView 374.5

First elected 2005

2008 margin 45-37 over Vic Wulsin.  Remainder to David Krikorian, an independent.

2006 margin 50-49

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 40-59

Bush margin 2004 64-36

Current opponents There are 4 confirmed Democrats:

Vic Wulsin

Jack Krikorian (no web site)

Jim Parker

and

Todd Book

Demographics  22nd fewest Latinos (1.0%)

Assessment Schmidt is truly odious, and this district is becoming more Democratic by the day – although it is still a Republican stronghold.  I met Wulsin in 2008, and I like her.

District: OH-03

Location Southwestern OH, including Dayton  map

Cook PVI R + 5

Representative Mike Turner (R)

VoteView 278

First elected 2002

2008 margin 64-36 over Jane Mitikides

2006 margin 59-41

2004 margin 62-38

Obama margin 47-51

Bush margin 2004 46-55

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 26th fewest Latinos (1.1%)

Assessment Long shot

District: OH-04

Location Slightly north and west of central OH map

Cook PVI R + 15

Representative Jim Jordan (R) Not confirmed

VoteView 426

First elected 2006

2008 margin 65-35 over Mike Carroll

2006 margin 60-40

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 38-60

Bush margin 2004 34-65

Current opponents

Demographics 33rd fewest Latinos (1.2%)

Assessment Long shot

District: OH-05

Location Northwestern OH, bordering MI and IN  map

Cook PVI R + 9

Representative Bob Latta (R) Not confirmed

VoteView 345

First elected 2007

2008 margin 64-36 over George Mays

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 45-53

Bush margin 2004 61-39

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 41st most rural (51.1%), 36th fewest Blacks (1.1%)  

Assessment Long shot

District: OH-06

Location Southeastern OH, a long narrow strip along the whole of the border with WV map

Cook PVI R + 2

Representative Charlie Wilson (D)

VoteView 205.5

First elected 2006

2008 margin 62-33 over Richard Stobbs

2006 margin 62-38

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 48-50

Bush margin 2004 51-49

Current opponents Donald Allen

Demographics 47th most rural (50.0%),  62nd poorest (median income = $33K), 11th most White (95.2%), 11th fewest Latinos (0.8%)

Assessment Although this is a swing district in POTUS, Wilson looks safe.

District: OH-07

Location Just south of central OH map

Cook PVI R + 7

Representative Steve Austria (R) Not confirmed

VoteView NA

First elected 2008

2008 margin 58-42 over Sharen Neuhardt

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 45-54

Bush margin 2004 57-43

Current opponents

Demographics 26th fewest Latinos (1.1%)

Assessment Long shot

District: OH-08

Location Central part of western OH, bordering IN map

Cook PVI R + 14

Representative John Boehner (R)

VoteView 407.5

First elected 1990

2008 margin 68-32 over Nicholas von Stein

2006 margin 64-36

2004 margin 69-31

Obama margin 38-60

Bush margin 2004 64-35

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 73rd most Whites (91.8%), 42nd fewest Latinos (1.3%)

Assessment

District: OH-09

Location Northern OH, bordering Lake Erie, including Toledo map

Cook PVI D + 10

Representative Marcy Kaptur (D)

VoteView 72

First elected 1982

2008 margin 74-26 over Bradley Leavitt

2006 margin 74-26

2004 margin 68-32

Obama margin 62-36

Bush margin 2004 42-55

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: OH-10

Location Northern OH, bordering Lake Erie, including part of Cleveland map

Cook PVI D + 8

Representative Dennis Kucinich (D)

VoteView 2

First elected 1996

2008 margin 57-39 over Jim Trakas

2006 margin 66-34

2004 margin 60-34

Obama margin 59-39

Bush margin 2004 41-58

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: OH-11

Location Cleveland and eastern suburbs map

Cook PVI D + 32

Representative Marcia Fudge (D) Not confirmed

VoteView NA

First elected  2008

2008 margin 85-15 over Tom Pekarik

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 85-14

Bush margin 2004 18-81

Current opponents Safe

Demographics 52nd lowest income (median = $32K), 63rd fewest Whites (38.8%), 18th most Blacks (55.5%)

Assessment

District: OH-12

Location Central OH, including part of Columbus map

Cook PVI D + 1

Representative Pat Tiberi (R)

VoteView 316

First elected 2000

2008 margin 55-42 over David Robinson

2006 margin 57-43

2004 margin 62-38

Obama margin 53-46

Bush margin 2004 51-49

Current opponents Paula Brooks (obviously not a full web  site)

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment From the Cook PVI numbers, it should be a bit vulnerable; I don’t know anything about Paula Brooks.

District: OH-13

Location Northern OH, including Akron map

Cook PVI D + 5

Representative Betty Sutton (D)

VoteView 98.5

First elected 2006

2008 margin 65-35 over David Potter

2006 margin 61-39

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 57-42

Bush margin 2004 44-56

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: OH-14

Location Northeastern corner of OH, bordering PA and Lake Erie map

Cook PVI R + 3

Representative Steven LaTourette (R)

VoteView 264

First elected 1994

2008 margin 58-39 over Bill O’Neill

2006 margin 58-39

2004 margin 63-37

Obama margin 49-49

Bush margin 2004 53-44

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 30th fewest in poverty (5.7%), 30th most Whites (93.8%), 42nd fewest Latinos (1.3%)

Assessment Long shot

District: OH-15

Location Central OH, including Columbus map

Cook PVI D + 1

Representative Mary Jo Kilroy (D)

VoteView NA

First elected  2008

2008 margin 311 votes out of 260,000 over Steve Stivers

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 54-45

Bush margin 2004 50-50

Current opponents David Ryon and Steve Stivers

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Vulnerable

District: OH-16

Location North and east of central OH map

Cook PVI R + 4

Representative John Boccieri (D) Not confirmed

VoteView NA

First elected 2008

2008 margin 54-46 over Kirk Schuring

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 48-50

Bush margin 2004 54-46

Current opponents None confirmed, but a lot of rumors and people considering running, see the WIKI

Demographics 17th fewest Latinos (0.9%)

Assessment A freshman in a Republican district has to be considered vulnerable

District: OH-17

Location  Northeastern OH, bordering PA, including Youngstown map

Cook PVI D + 12

Representative Tim Ryan (D)

VoteView 109

First elected 2002

2008 margin 78-22 over Duane Grassell

2006 margin 80-20

2004 margin 77-23

Obama margin 62-36

Bush margin 2004 63-37

Current opponents No Republicans, but a bunch of Democrats are considering primaries, see the WIKI

Demographics 67th fewest Latinos (1.6%)

Assessment Safe for the Democrat, Ryan or other

District: OH-18

Location South and east of central OH map

Cook PVI R + 7

Representative Zack Space (D)

VoteView 217

First elected 2006

2008 margin 60-40 over Fred Dailey

2006 margin 62-38

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 45-52

Bush margin 2004 57-41

Current opponents Jeannette Moll, possibly others

Demographics 24th most rural (56.7%), 7th most White (95.9%), tied for least Latinos (0.6%)

Assessment Looks fairly safe; Space fits the district.

District: OK-01

Location  Shaped like a key standing on end, centered on Tulsa in northeast OK, a tiny bit of border with KS map

Cook PVI R + 16

Representative John Sullivan (R)

VoteView 401

First elected 2002

2008 margin 66-34 over Georgianna Oliver

2006 margin 64-31

2004 margin 60-38

Obama margin 34-66

Bush margin 2004 35-65

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Long shot

District: OK-02

Location Eastern OK, bordering MO and AR map

Cook PVI R + 14

Representative Dan Boren (D)

VoteView 225

First elected 2004

2008 margin 70-30 over Raymond Wickson

2006 margin 73-27

2004 margin 66-34

Obama margin 34-66

Bush margin 2004 41-59

Current opponents Dan Arnett and David Edmonds

Demographics 9th most rural (64.4%), 12th lowest income (median = $28K), 11th most nonWhite, nonBlack, NonLatino (mostly 16.8% American Indian)

Assessment Boren isn’t exactly a progressive (UNDERSTATEMENT) but he did 36 points better than Obama.  He seems safe.

District: OK-03

Location The panhandle of OK, and east to Oklahoma City suburbs, borders TX, NM, CO, and KS map

Cook PVI R + 24

Representative Frank Lucas (R)

VoteView 315

First elected 1994

2008 margin 70-24 over Frankie Robbins

2006 margin 67-33

2004 margin 82-18 (vs. minor party)

Obama margin 27-73

Bush margin 2004 72-28

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 54th most rural (49.3%), 53rd lowest income (median = $32K)

Assessment Long shot

District: OK-04

Location Southwestern OK, bordering TX, including suburbs of Oklahoma City map

Cook PVI R + 18

Representative Tom Cole (R)

VoteView 330

First elected 2002

2008 margin 66-29 over Blake Cummings

2006 margin 65-35

2004 margin 78-22 (against minor party)

Obama margin 34-66

Bush margin 2004 59-41

Current opponents No Democrats, but there is a primary

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Long shot

District: OK-05

Location Oklahoma City and some points southeast of there map

Cook PVI R + 13

Representative Mary Fallin (R) Retiring to run for Governor

VoteView NA

First elected NA

2008 margin NA

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 41-59

Bush margin 2004 64-36

Current opponents A lot of Republicans will probably run in a primary for this safe R seat

Demographics 78th lowest income (median = $34K)

Assessment Safe for whichever Repub wins

District: OR-01

Location  Northwestern OR, bordering WA and the Pacific, including parts of Portland and its suburbs  map

Cook PVI D + 8

Representative David Wu (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 132.5

First elected 1998

2008 margin 73% against several minor party candidates

2006 margin 63-34

2004 margin 58-38

Obama margin 61-36

Bush margin 2004 55-44

Current opponents Stephen Broadhead and Rob Corneilles

Demographics  36th fewest Blacks (1.1%)

Assessment Safe

District: OR-02

Location The eastern 2/3rds of OR, bordering WA, ID, NV, and CA  map

Cook PVI R + 10

Representative Greg Walden (R) May run for governor

VoteView 280

First elected 1998

2008 margin 70-26 over Noah Lemas

2006 margin 67-30

2004 margin 72-26

Obama margin 43-54

Bush margin 2004 61-38

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 15th most veterans (17.3%), 6th fewest Blacks (0.4%)

Assessment Safe for whichever Republican gets it, even if Walden runs.

District: OR-03

Location Northern OR, bordering WA, includes Portland and suburbs, and Mt Hood.  map

Cook PVI D + 19

Representative Earl Blumenauer (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 54

First elected 1996

2008 margin 75-25 over Delia Lopez

2006 margin 73-23

2004 margin 71-24

Obama margin 71-26

Bush margin 2004 33-67

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: OR-04

Location Southwestern OR, bordering CA and the Pacific, including Eugene  map

Cook PVI D + 2

Representative Peter DeFazio (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 142

First elected 1986

2008 margin 83% against several minor party candidates

2006 margin 62-38

2004 margin 61-38

Obama margin 54-43

Bush margin 2004 49-49

Current opponents Sid Leken an Jaynee Germond

Demographics   11th fewest Blacks (0.5%), 24th most veterans (16.9%)

Assessment Safe

District: OR-05

Location  A T-shaped district in northwestern OR.  map

Cook PVI D + 1

Representative Kurt Schrader (D)

VoteView NA

First elected 2008

2008 margin 55-38 over Mike Erickson

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 54-43

Bush margin 2004 50-49

Current opponents None confirmed, but a lot of Repubs considering a run, see the WIKI

Demographics 18th fewest Blacks (0.6%)

Assessment Winning by 17 in your first race looks good; probably safe.  Schrader has raised $400K

The importance of a ground game – down-ballot drop off

21st Century Democrats is excited about the extraordinary amount of enthusiasm Barack Obama’s nomination has generated. The Pew Research Center is suggesting increased voter turnout in the general election bodes well for Democrats. However, some stats from the primary season show that increased turnout for the presidential election doesn’t always help down-ballot races.

In fact, assuming a strong Presidential ticket will pull Democratic candidates in the House, the Senate, and local offices to victory is dangerous. This assumption is not in line with electoral empirics or America’s personality. Splitting tickets will always occur in our nation which prides itself on having a “maverick spirit” and values competence over loyalty. More importantly, many Americans will rightfully not vote for candidates they are unfamiliar with. Why would anyone put someone they know nothing about in a tremendous position of power? In the midst of all the excitement generated by the Obama campaign, we cannot forget that voters need to have face to face contact with canvassers for all our candidates, not just our candidate for President.

Looking at this year’s primaries, there is a substantial discrepancy between the number of people who voted for Democratic Presidential Candidates and the number of people who voted for other Democrats. Across the board, significantly less people voted for other Democratic candidates than voted for Democratic Presidential Candidates.

In Pennsylvania there was a stark disparity between votes accumulated by Democratic Presidential Candidates and Democrats running for other state-wide offices. There were only two contested statewide primaries in Pennsylvania this cycle. Below are two charts comparing the number of votes for Democratic Presidential candidates in April’s Primary with votes for Democrats running for State Treasurer in PA.

Candidate Votes Percent
CLINTON, HILLARY 1,275,039 54.6%
OBAMA, BARACK 1,061,441 45.4%

Total votes for Obama and Clinton in Pennsylvania = 2,336,480

*Obama and Clinton were the only Democrats on the ballot in PA

Candidate Votes Percent
MCCORD, ROBERT 783,675 43.2%
CORDISCO, JOHN F. 472,027 26.0%
MANN, JENNIFER L. 441,745 24.3%
MORRISON-WESLEY, DENNIS 118,696 6.5%

Total Votes for Democrats running for PA State Treasurer 1,661,549

There was a 674,931 vote or 29% disparity between Democrats who voted for our party’s candidates for State Treasurer and our parties candidates for President in Pennsylvania. That means nearly 3 out of every 10 people who voted in the presidential primary, gave the State Treasurer a pass.

In Ohio, two 21st Century Democrats’ endorsed candidates also were victims of down-ballot drop off. In the 1st Congressional District, there were a total of  115, 387 votes for Obama , Edwards and Clinton. Steve Dreihaus ran an uncontested and only got 60,454 votes, a 57,840 vote difference.  Nearly 1 out of every two voters who cast a vote for the Democratic nominee decided to not cast a vote for their Congressman.

In the 15th CD, Mary Jo Kilroy was also uncontested and received 85,840 votes. All the Presidential Candidates received 91,233 votes in total. That’s a 5, 393 vote drop off. Given Mary Jo’s 2006 election results, she can’t afford to have that sort of drop off.

Out in Oregon,  remember those Obama crowds? All that excitement generated 641, 499 total votes in the Democratic Presidential Primary. One would think that the heated primary for the Democratic Senatorial nominee would have little drop off. In spite of intense competition between two well funded campaigns less people voted for our Senatorial candidates than voted for our Presidential Candidates. In fact there was an almost 14% or 91,523 vote difference between total votes for Democratic Presidential Nominees and total votes for Democratic Senatorial Candidates in Oregon. How will Merkley beat Smith if he has to get 115% of Obama’s take in Oregon?

Why am I telling you this? Because at 21st Century Democrats, we believe that in order to have a true progressive revolution in America we’ll need a bottom up, not a top down, approach to elections and campaigns. We have been training and placing field organizers for two decades now. We know that many down-ballot races cannot depend on Obama’s team. They have a big enough task ahead.

21st Century Democrats is endorsing over fifty down-ballot candidates all over the country. For example Jim Roth is running for Corporate Commissioner in Oklahoma, and Andy Meisner is running for Oakland County Treasurer in Michigan. These candidates need resources to get field organizers hitting the doors, and cannot rely on Barack Obama’s field team to do it for them. The nation will not be changed without your help. We already have organizers in critical races across the country, but we need you to partner with us to get down-ballot candidates like Darcy Burner (WA-08), Dan Maffei (NY-25), Jim Himes (CT-4), Judy Baker (MO -9) and other progressives near you elected.

——-

Big thanks to Corey Goldiner, 21st Century Fellow, for doing most of the legwork and tracking down all these statistics.

Congressional races round 2: Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island

Continuing through the alphabet.

Oregon has 5 representatives: 4 Democrats and 1 Republican

Filing deadline was March 11, primary is May 20

Pennsylvania has 19 representatives: 11 Democrats and 8 Republicans

Filing deadline was Feb 12, primary is April 22

Rhode Island has 2 districts, both Democrats

Filing deadline is June 25, primary Sept 9

District: OR-01

Location Northwestern OR, bordering WA and the Pacific, including parts of Portland and its suburbs

Representative David Wu (D)

First elected  1998

2006 margin 63-34

2004 margin 58-38

Bush margin 2004 44-55

Notes on opponents In 2004, Goli Ameri raised $2.3 million to Wu’s $2.7 million.  In 2006, Derrick Kitts raised about $140K to Wu’s $1.1 million

Current opponents Wu is facing a primary, and then either Stephen Brodhead, CW Chappell or Joel Haugan. No fundraising reports from anyone but Wu, who has $600K COH

Demographics 36th fewest Blacks (1.1%)

Assessment  Safe

District: OR-02

Location The eastern 2/3rds of OR, bordering WA, ID, NV, and CA

Representative Greg Walden (R)

First elected  1998

2006 margin 67-30

2004 margin 72-26

Bush margin 2004 61-38

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents Noah Lemas (no website, no fundraising report)

Demographics 15th most veterans (17.3%), 6th fewest Blacks (0.4%)

Assessment Long shot

District: OR-03

Location Northern OR, bordering WA, includes Portland and suburbs, and Mt Hood.

Representative Earl Blumenauer (D)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 73-23

2004 margin 71-24

Bush margin 2004 33-67

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents A primary and then Delia Lopez. No fundraising reports from anyone but Blumenauer, who has $465 COH

Demographics 60th most Democratic

Assessment safe

District: OR-04

Location Southwestern OR, bordering CA and the Pacific, including Eugene

Representative Peter DeFazio (D)

First elected  1986

2006 margin 62-38

2004 margin 61-38

Bush margin 2004 49-49

Notes on opponents In 2004, Jim Feldekamp raised $600 K to DeFazio’s $900K; he ran again in 2006, raising $500K to DeFazio’s $750K

Current opponents  None. DeFazio has $360K COH….he should share

Demographics 11th fewest Blacks (0.5%), 24th most veterans (16.9%)

Assessment  Free ride.

District: OR-05

Location A T-shaped district in northwestern OR.

Representative Darlene Hooley (D) retiring

First elected  1996

2006 margin 54-43

2004 margin 53-44

Bush margin 2004 50-49

Notes on opponents In 2004, Jim Zupancic raised $1.3 million to Hooley’s $2 million; in 2006, Mike Erickson raised $1.8 million to Hooley’s $2 million

Current opponents Democrats:

Kurt Schrader

Andrew Foster (no web site), Nancy Moran (no web site),

Steve Marks

Richard Nathe (no website) and a bunch of Republicans.   No fundraising reports from the Dems

Demographics 18th fewest Blacks (0.6%)

Assessment Seems vulnerable, but I don’t know

District: PA-01

Location Some of Philadelphia and some suburbs

Representative Robert Brady (D)

First elected  1998

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 86-13

Bush margin 2004  15-84

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents Mike Muhammad. No fundraising report.  Brady has $678,000 COH, he should share

Demographics 14th lowest income (median = $28K), 52nd fewest Whites (33%), 27th most Blacks (45%), 8th most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: PA-02

Location Philadelphia and suburbs

Representative Chaka Fattah

First elected  1994

2006 margin 89-9

2004 margin 88-12

Bush margin 2004 12-87

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents Mike Livingston, no fundraising report.  Fattah has $183 COH.

Demographics 32nd lowest income (median = $31K), 46th fewest Whites (29.9%), 7th most Blacks (60.7%), 4th most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: PA-03

Location Northwestern PA, bordering Lake Erie, OH, and NY

Representative Phil English (R)

First elected  1994

2006 margin 54-42

2004 margin 60-40

Bush margin 2004 53-47

Notes on opponents Steven Porter ran in 2004 and 2006, raising about $200K each time, English had about $1.5 million each time

Current opponents Kyle Foust $55K raised, $25K COH

Mike Waltner $100K raised, $65K COH

Tom Myers $140K raised, $75K COH

Kathy Dahlkemper $154K raised, $117K COH;

Demographics 33rd most Whites (93.7%), 42nd fewest Latinos (1.3%)

Assessment Superribbie ranks it as the 50th most vulnerable Republican seat.  On the DCCC list .  The fact that all those Democrats are running is a sign that English is vulnerable.

District: PA-04

Location Western PA, bordering OH

Representative Jason Altmire (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 52-48

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 54-45

Notes on opponents In 2006, Altmire ousted Melissa Hart, raising $1.1 million, about half what she raised

Current opponents Hart is back for a rematch, but she has a primary challenger (Ron Francis).  Francis has raised $160K, $113 COH; Hart has raised $385K, $332K COH.

Altmire has raised $1.1 million, $911K COH

Demographics 21st most White (94.3%), tied for fewest Latinos (0.6%)

Assessment Superribbie ranks it as the ninth most vulnerable Democratic seat, and it’s on the DCCC list .  While not safe, Altmire beat Hart, with less money than her, when she was an incumbent.  Now he’s got more money, and he’s the incumbent.  I don’t think it’s quite as vulnerable as Superribbie.

District: PA-05

Location Northern PA, bordering NY.

Representative John Peterson (R) retiring

First elected  1996

2006 margin 60-40

2004 margin 88-12 against a Libertarian

Bush margin 2004 61-39

Notes on opponents In 2006, Don Hilliard raised no money and still got 40%

Current opponents Democrats:

Mark McCracken

Bill Cahir

Rick Vilello

Lots of Republicans. No fundraising numbers from anyone

Demographics 32nd most rural (54%), 6th lowest income (median = $33K), 6th most Whites (96%), 47th fewest Blacks (1.3%), 11th fewest Latinos (0.8%), 99th most Republican

Assessment Somewhat vulnerable. Superribbie ranks it as the 58th most vulnerable Republican seat. The fact that we are competitive here, in a naturally Republican seat, is a really good sign

District: PA-06

Location West of Philadelphia

Representative Jim Gerlach (R)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 51-49

2004 margin 51-49

Bush margin 2004 48-51

Notes on opponents Lois Murphy ran in 2004 and 2006, in 2004, she raised $1.9 million to Gerlach’s $2.2 million; in 2006, she raised $4 million to his $3.5 million

Current opponents Bob Roggio no funding info.  Gerlach has $500K COH

Demographics 70th highest income (median = $56K)

Assessment Somewhat vulnerable,   Superribbie ranks it as the 22nd most vulnerable Republican seat.  On the DCCC list .  Not sure why Roggio has no FEC numbers

District: PA-07

Location Southeastern PA, bordering DE, including King of Prussia

Representative Joe Sestak (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 56-44

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 47-53

Notes on opponents In 2006, Sestak ousted Curt Weldon; each raised about $3 million

Current opponents Curt Weldon has $90K COH (but, per comments, appears to not be in it), Craig Williams, no info.  Sestak has $1.7 million COH

Demographics 67th highest income (median = $56K), 41st fewest Latinos (1.3%)

Assessment Superribbie ranks it as the 36th most vulnerable Democratic seat; Sestak’s formidable fundraising advantage makes it a little less vulnerable, I  think

District: PA-08

Location The southeast corner of PA, bordering NJ

Representative Patrick Murphy (D)

First elected 2006

2006 margin 1418 votes out of 250,000

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 48-51

Notes on opponents In 2006, Murphy ousted Mike Fitzpatrick; Murphy raised $2.4 million to Fitzpatrick’s $3.2

Current opponents Thomas Manion (no funding info); Murphy has $1.2 million COH

Demographics 44th highest income (median = $59K),

Assessment   Superribbie ranks it as the 22nd most vulnerable Democratic seat. On the DCCC list .  Another potentially close race, where we appear to have a huge lead in fundraising

District: PA-09

Location The central part of southern PA, bordering MD and a little of WV

Representative Bill Shuster (R)

First elected 2001  

2006 margin 60-40

2004 margin 69-30

Bush margin 2004 67-33

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents Tony Barr who got 40% with almost no money in 2006, is running again. No funding info on Barr, but Shuster has only $188K COH, not much for an incumbent at this stage

Demographics 19th most rural (59.5%), 3rd most White (96.4%), 60th fewest Blacks (1.6%), 17th fewest Latinos (0.9%), 2nd fewest nonBlack, nonWhite, nonLatino, 42nd most Republican

Assessment  Long shot

District: PA-10

Location Northeastern PA, bordering NY and NJ

Representative Christopher  Carney (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 53-47

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 60-40

Notes on opponents In 2006, Carney ousted Don Sherwood, spending $1.5 million to Sherwood’s $3 million

Current opponents  Dan Meuser has raised the most of several Republicans: He has $398 COH; Chris Hackett has $386K; others much less.  Carney has $766K.  

Demographics 27th most rural (55.4%), 9th most White (95.5%), 71st least Black (1.9%), 51st least Latinos (1.4%)

Assessment Very vulnerable Superribbie ranks it as the 5th most vulnerable Democratic seat. On the DCCC list .

District: PA-11

Location Eastern PA, including Scranton and Wilkes-Barre

Representative Paul Kanjorski (D)

First elected  1984

2006 margin 72-28

2004 margin 94-6 against a minor party

Bush margin 2004 47-53

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents  Lou Barletta has $851 COH and $300K in debt (hmmmm….). Kanjorski has $1.5 million.  He should share

Demographics 97th lowest income (median = $35K)

Assessment  Safe

District: PA-12

Location An odd, thready district in southwest PA

Representative John Murtha (D)

First elected  1974

2006 margin 61-39

2004 margin unopposed

Bush margin 2004 49-51

Notes on opponents In 2006, Diana Irey raised $850K to Murtha’s $3.2 million.

Current opponents William Russell has $25K COH, Murtha has $529K

Demographics 32nd poorest (median income = $31K), 16th most Whites (95.0%).  3rd fewest Latinos (0.6%)

Assessment Safe

District: PA-13

Location Suburbs and exurbs of Philadelphia

Representative Allyson Schwartz (D)

First elected  2004

2006 margin 66-34

2004 margin 56-44

Bush margin 2004 43-56

Notes on opponents In 2004, this seat was open and Schwartz beat Melissa Brown, raising $4.5 million to Brown’s $1.9 million. In 2006, Raj Bhakta raised $400K to Schwartz’ $2.2 million

Current opponents Marina Kats has no fundraising report.  Schwartz has $1.6 million COH, she should share

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: PA-14

Location Pittsburgh and suburbs

Representative Mike Doyle (D)

First elected  1994

2006 margin 90-10 (against a Green)

2004 margin unopposed

Bush margin 2004 30-69

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents No Republican; Doyle has $400K COH

Demographics 26th lowest income (median = $30K), 71st most Blacks (22.5%), 41st most Democratic

Assessment  Free ride

District: PA-15

Location Central part of eastern NJ, including Allentown and Bethlehem, bordering NJ

Representative Charlie Dent (R)

First elected  2004

2006 margin 54-43

2004 margin 59-39

Bush margin 2004 Kerry won by 786 votes out of 300,000

Notes on opponents In 2004, this was an open seat, and Dent beat Joe Driscoll, each spending about $2 million.  In 2006, Charles Dertinger raised little

Current opponents Sam Bennett has raised $194K and has $94K COH; Dent has over $500K COH.  Bennett is one of my favorite candidates.

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Vulnerable. Superribbie ranks it as the 32nd most vulnerable Republican seat.

District: PA-16

Location Southeastern PA, centering on Lancaster

Representative Joe Pitts (R)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 57-40

2004 margin 64-34

Bush margin 2004 61-38

Notes on opponents Lois Herr ran both times, raising about $80K the first time and $300K in 2006; Pitts raised just under $500K the first time and just over that in 2006

Current opponents Bruce Slater has just $7K COH, to Pitts’ $175K

Demographics 86th most Republican

Assessment Long shot

District: PA-17

Location South and east of central PA, including Harrisburg

Representative Tim Holden (D)

First elected 1992

2006 margin 65-35

2004 margin 59-39

Bush margin 2004 58-42

Notes on opponents In 2004, Scott Paterno raised $1 million to Holden’s $1.6 million.  The 2006 opponent raised little

Current opponents Toni Gilhooley has $31K COH to Holden’s $780K

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: PA-18

Location Suburbs of Pittsburgh

Representative Tim Murphy (R)

First elected 2002

2006 margin 58-42

2004 margin 63-37

Bush margin 2004 54-46

Notes on opponents Each raised about $100K, Murphy raised over $1 million each time

Current opponents Beth Hafer $106K raised, $42K COH

Brien Wall $35K raised, $16K COH

Steve O’Donnell $260K raised, $203K COH

Daniel Wholey $56K raised, $45K COH

Demographics 10th most Whites (95.4%), 77th fewest Blacks (2.0%), tied for fewest Latinos (0.6%)

Assessment Vulnerable. Superribbie ranks it as the 60th most vulnerable Republican seat.  On the DCCC list

District: PA-19

Location Southern PA including Gettysburg

Representative Todd Platts (R)

First elected  2000

2006 margin 64-33

2004 margin 91-4 against a Green

Bush margin 2004 64-36

Notes on opponents Phillip Avilo raised $175K against Platts’ $375K

Current opponents Phil Avilo , no fundraising info

Demographics 68th most Whites (92.2%)

Assessment Long shot

District: RI-01

Location Northern and eastern RI, bordering MA and CT

Representative Patrick Kennedy (D)

First elected  1994

2006 margin 62-36

2004 margin 64-36

Bush margin 2004 36-62

Notes on opponents In 2004, David Rogers and Kennedy each raised about $2 million.  In 2006, his opponent raised little

Current opponents None; Kennedy has $700K COH, he should share

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment safe

District: RI-02

Location Most of the state

Representative Jim Langevin (D)

First elected  2000

2006 margin 73-27 against an Independent

2004 margin 75-21

Bush margin 2004 41-57

Notes on opponents  No money for Republicans

Current opponents None

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe