Tag: RI

Previous diaries

Summary:

 PA has 19 representatives: 10 D, 8 R

 RI has  2 representatives, both D.

Possibly vulnerable:

  PA-06 (R)

  PA-07 (D)

  PA-10 (D)

  PA-16 (R)

Sources:

House vote in 2008 from WaPo

VoteView (ranked from 1 for most liberal to 447 for most conservative; more than 435 because some districts had more than one rep in the 110th congress)

Race Tracker

Obama vote by CD from Swing State

National Atlas for maps

and my previous diaries.

District: PA-01

Location  Philadelphia and suburbs  map

Cook PVI D + 35

Representative Robert Brady (D)

VoteView  83

First elected 1998

2008 margin 91-9 over Mike Muhammad

2006 margin Unopposed

2004 margin 86-13

Obama margin 88-12

Bush margin 2004 15-84

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics   14th lowest income (median = $28K), 52nd fewest Whites (33%), 27th most Blacks (45%), 9th most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: PA-02

Location Philadelphia and suburbs map

Cook PVI D + 38

Representative  Chaka Fattah (D)

VoteView 77

First elected 1994

2008 margin 89-11 over Adam Lang

2006 margin 89-9

2004 margin 88-12

Obama margin 90-10

Bush margin 2004 12-87

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics   Demographics  32nd lowest income (median = $31K), 46th fewest Whites (29.9%), 7th most Blacks (60.7%). 4th most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: PA-03

Location Northwestern PA, bordering Lake Erie, OH, and NY map

Cook PVI R + 3

Representative Kathy Dahlkemper (D) over incumbent Phil English

VoteView NA

First elected 2008

2008 margin 52-48

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 49-49

Bush margin 2004 53-47

Current opponents Elaine Surma, possibly others

Demographics    33rd most Whites (93.7%), 42nd fewest Latinos (1.3%)

Assessment Dahlkemper ousted Phil English, who had been in the House since 1994; she has raised an impressive $521K, and Surma has no website yet and no fundraising numbers. Should be OK, but Dahlkemper is a freshman in a swing district.

District: PA-04

Location   Western PA, bordering OH map

Cook PVI R + 6

Representative  Jason Altmire (D)

VoteView 236

First elected 2006

2008 margin 56-44 over Melissa Hart

2006 margin 52-48

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 44-55

Bush margin 2004 54-45

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics   21st most White (94.3%), tied for fewest Latinos (0.6%)

Assessment Altmire ousted Hart in 2006, and has now beat her twice

District: PA-05

Location Northern PA, bordering NY map

Cook PVI R + 9

Representative Glenn Thompson (R)

VoteView NA

First elected 2008

2008 margin 57-41 over Mark McCracken

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 44-54

Bush margin 2004 61-39

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics   32nd most rural (54%), 6th lowest income (median = $33K), 6th most Whites (96%), 47th fewest Blacks (1.3%), 11th fewest Latinos (0.8%).  

Assessment

District: PA-06

Location West of Philadelphia map

Cook PVI D + 4

Representative Jim Gerlach (R) Retiring

VoteView NA

First elected NA

2008 margin NA

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 58-41

Bush margin 2004 48-51

Current opponents The only confirmed Democrat is Doug Pike, others are considering running. Confirmed Republicans include Curt Schroder and Ryan Costello, with others considering.

Demographics   70th highest income (median = $56K)  

Assessment A prime pickup possibility.  This district is trending Democratic, and the Gerlach won narrowly in every election.

District: PA-07

Location  Southeastern PA, bordering DE, including King of Prussia  map

Cook PVI D + 3

Representative Joe Sestak (D) Running for Senate

VoteView NA

First elected NA

2008 margin NA

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 56-43

Bush margin 2004 47-53

Current opponents No confirmed Democrats; those considering running include Bryan Lentz and Greg Vitali

Demographics 67th highest income (median = $56K), 41st fewest Latinos (1.3%)

Assessment This district is fairly Democratic, but by no means a sure thing.  

District: PA-08

Location The southeast corner of PA, bordering NJ  map

Cook PVI D + 2

Representative Patrick Murphy (D)

VoteView 187

First elected 2006

2008 margin 57-42 over Tom Manion

2006 margin 1418 votes out of 250,000

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 54-45

Bush margin 2004 48-51

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics    44th highest income (median = $59K)

Assessment Looks fairly safe

District: PA-09

Location The central part of southern PA, bordering MD and a little of WV  map

Cook PVI R + 17

Representative Bill Shuster (R)

VoteView 340

First elected 2001

2008 margin 64-36 over Tony Barr

2006 margin 60-40

2004 margin 69-30

Obama margin 45-53

Bush margin 2004 60-40

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 19th most rural (59.5%), 3rd most White (96.4%), 60th fewest Blacks (1.6%), 17th fewest Latinos (0.9%), 2nd fewest nonBlack, nonWhite, nonLatino.  

Assessment Long shot

District: PA-10

Location Northeastern PA, bordering NY and NJ map

Cook PVI R + 8

Representative Christopher Carney (D)

VoteView 234

First elected 2006

2008 margin 56-44 over Chris Hackett

2006 margin 53-47

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 45-53

Bush margin 2004 60-40

Current opponents Christopher Bain, possibly other.

Demographics 27th most rural (55.4%), 9th most White (95.5%), 71st least Black (1.9%), 51st least Latinos (1.4%)

Assessment Do you have to be named Christopher to run here? 🙂   This is a fairly vulnerable district, at R +8; Carney has raised $350K.

District: PA-11

Location Eastern PA, including Scranton and Wilkes-Barre  map

Cook PVI D + 4

Representative Paul Kanjorski (D)

VoteView 169.5

First elected 1984

2008 margin 52-48 over Lou Barletta

2006 margin 72-28

2004 margin 94-6 against a minor party

Obama margin 57-42

Bush margin 2004 47-53

Current opponents Possible primary; no confirmed Republican.

Demographics 97th lowest income (median = $35K)  

Assessment What happened between 2004 and 2008? This might be vulnerable.

District: PA-12

Location An odd, thready district in southwest PA map

Cook PVI R + 1

Representative John Murtha (D)

VoteView 169.5

First elected  1974

2008 margin 58-42 over William Russell

2006 margin 61-39

2004 margin unopposed

Obama margin 49-49

Bush margin 2004 51-49

Current opponents Russell is running again, as is Tim Burns.  And Murtha has a primary challenge from Ryan Bucchianeri

Demographics    32nd poorest (median income = $31K), 16th most Whites (95.0%).  3rd fewest Latinos (0.6%)

Assessment The primary looks easy for Murtha, and, although Russell has raised a huge amount of money (over $1 million), he lost to Murtha pretty badly in 2008, and probably will again.

District: PA-13

Location Suburbs and exurbs of Philadelphia  map

Cook PVI D + 7

Representative Allyson Schwartz (D)

VoteView 162

First elected 2004

2008 margin 63-35 over Marina Kats

2006 margin 66-34

2004 margin 56-44

Obama margin 58-41

Bush margin 2004 43-56

Current opponents Damian Dachowski

Demographics   Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: PA-14

Location Pittsburgh and suburbs  map

Cook PVI D + 19

Representative Mike Doyle (D)

VoteView 112.5

First elected 1994

2008 margin 91-9 over a Green party candidate

2006 margin 90-10 (against a green)

2004 margin unopposed

Obama margin 70-29

Bush margin 2004 30-69

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics   26th lowest income (median = $30K), 71st most Blacks (22.5%)

Assessment Safe

District: PA-15

Location Central part of eastern PA, including Allentown and Bethlehem, bordering NJ  map

Cook PVI D + 2

Representative Charles Dent (R)

VoteView 255

First elected 2004

2008 margin 59-41 over Sam Bennett

2006 margin 54-43

2004 margin 59-39

Obama margin 56-43

Bush margin 2004 50-50

Current opponents John Callahan (site under construction) is running and Sam Bennett may run again

Demographics Not unusual on what I track  

Assessment Long shot, but possible.  Still, if a Democrat can’t win here when Obama won by 13 ….; although some have said that Bennett had some local problems.

District: PA-16

Location Southeastern PA, centering on Lancaster  map

Cook PVI R + 8

Representative Joe Pitts (R)

VoteView 405

First elected 1996

2008 margin 56-39 over Bruce Slater

2006 margin 57-40

2004 margin 64-34

Obama margin 48-51

Bush margin 2004 62-38

Current opponents Lois Herr (this website needs some more info)

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Pitts has not raised much for an incumbent with a challenger (only about $100K).  Lois Herr called me up as a potential donor, and she sounds good.  Might be vulnerable.

District: PA-17

Location South and east of central PA, including Harrisburg  map

Cook PVI R + 6

Representative Tim Holden (D)

VoteView 192.5

First elected 1992

2008 margin 64-36 over Toni Gillhooley

2006 margin 65-35

2004 margin 59-39

Obama margin 48-51

Bush margin 2004 58-42

Current opponents Frank Ryan

Demographics Not unusual on what I track  

Assessment Holden has won easily, even in this Republican district.  Should be safe.

District: PA-18

Location Suburbs of Pittsburgh  map

Cook PVI R + 6

Representative Tim Murphy (R)

VoteView 259

First elected 2002

2008 margin 64-36 over Steve O’Donnell

2006 margin 58-42

2004 margin 63-37

Obama margin 44-55

Bush margin 2004 54-46

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics  10th most Whites (95.4%), 77th fewest Blacks (2.0%), tied for fewest Latinos (0.6%)  

Assessment Long shot

District: PA-19

Location Southern PA including Gettysburg  map

Cook PVI R + 12

Representative Todd Platts (R)

VoteView 254

First elected 2000

2008 margin 67-33 over Phillip Avilo

2006 margin 91-4 against a Green

2004 margin 64-36

Obama margin 43-56

Bush margin 2004 64-36

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics   68th most Whites (92.2%)

Assessment Long shot

District: RI-01

Location Northern and eastern RI, bordering MA and CT  map

Cook PVI D + 13

Representative Patrick Kennedy (D)

VoteView 89

First elected 1994

2008 margin 69-24 over Jon Scott

2006 margin 62-36

2004 margin 64-36

Obama margin 65-33

Bush margin 2004 36-62

Current opponents John Loughlin

Demographics   Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: RI-02

Location Most of the state map

Cook PVI D + 9

Representative Jim Langevin (D)

VoteView 146

First elected 2000

2008 margin 70-30 over Mark Zaccaria

2006 margin 73-27 against an independent

2004 margin 75-21

Obama margin 61-37

Bush margin 2004 41-57

Current opponents A primary challenge, and then Zaccaria again.

Demographics   Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

Continuing through the alphabet.

Oregon has 5 representatives: 4 Democrats and 1 Republican

Filing deadline was March 11, primary is May 20

Pennsylvania has 19 representatives: 11 Democrats and 8 Republicans

Filing deadline was Feb 12, primary is April 22

Rhode Island has 2 districts, both Democrats

Filing deadline is June 25, primary Sept 9

District: OR-01

Location Northwestern OR, bordering WA and the Pacific, including parts of Portland and its suburbs

Representative David Wu (D)

First elected  1998

2006 margin 63-34

2004 margin 58-38

Bush margin 2004 44-55

Notes on opponents In 2004, Goli Ameri raised $2.3 million to Wu’s $2.7 million.  In 2006, Derrick Kitts raised about $140K to Wu’s $1.1 million

Current opponents Wu is facing a primary, and then either Stephen Brodhead, CW Chappell or Joel Haugan. No fundraising reports from anyone but Wu, who has $600K COH

Demographics 36th fewest Blacks (1.1%)

Assessment  Safe

District: OR-02

Location The eastern 2/3rds of OR, bordering WA, ID, NV, and CA

Representative Greg Walden (R)

First elected  1998

2006 margin 67-30

2004 margin 72-26

Bush margin 2004 61-38

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents Noah Lemas (no website, no fundraising report)

Demographics 15th most veterans (17.3%), 6th fewest Blacks (0.4%)

Assessment Long shot

District: OR-03

Location Northern OR, bordering WA, includes Portland and suburbs, and Mt Hood.

Representative Earl Blumenauer (D)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 73-23

2004 margin 71-24

Bush margin 2004 33-67

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents A primary and then Delia Lopez. No fundraising reports from anyone but Blumenauer, who has $465 COH

Demographics 60th most Democratic

Assessment safe

District: OR-04

Location Southwestern OR, bordering CA and the Pacific, including Eugene

Representative Peter DeFazio (D)

First elected  1986

2006 margin 62-38

2004 margin 61-38

Bush margin 2004 49-49

Notes on opponents In 2004, Jim Feldekamp raised $600 K to DeFazio’s $900K; he ran again in 2006, raising $500K to DeFazio’s $750K

Current opponents  None. DeFazio has $360K COH….he should share

Demographics 11th fewest Blacks (0.5%), 24th most veterans (16.9%)

Assessment  Free ride.

District: OR-05

Location A T-shaped district in northwestern OR.

Representative Darlene Hooley (D) retiring

First elected  1996

2006 margin 54-43

2004 margin 53-44

Bush margin 2004 50-49

Notes on opponents In 2004, Jim Zupancic raised $1.3 million to Hooley’s $2 million; in 2006, Mike Erickson raised $1.8 million to Hooley’s $2 million

Current opponents Democrats:

Kurt Schrader

Andrew Foster (no web site), Nancy Moran (no web site),

Steve Marks

Richard Nathe (no website) and a bunch of Republicans.   No fundraising reports from the Dems

Demographics 18th fewest Blacks (0.6%)

Assessment Seems vulnerable, but I don’t know

District: PA-01

Location Some of Philadelphia and some suburbs

Representative Robert Brady (D)

First elected  1998

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 86-13

Bush margin 2004  15-84

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents Mike Muhammad. No fundraising report.  Brady has $678,000 COH, he should share

Demographics 14th lowest income (median = $28K), 52nd fewest Whites (33%), 27th most Blacks (45%), 8th most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: PA-02

Location Philadelphia and suburbs

Representative Chaka Fattah

First elected  1994

2006 margin 89-9

2004 margin 88-12

Bush margin 2004 12-87

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents Mike Livingston, no fundraising report.  Fattah has $183 COH.

Demographics 32nd lowest income (median = $31K), 46th fewest Whites (29.9%), 7th most Blacks (60.7%), 4th most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: PA-03

Location Northwestern PA, bordering Lake Erie, OH, and NY

Representative Phil English (R)

First elected  1994

2006 margin 54-42

2004 margin 60-40

Bush margin 2004 53-47

Notes on opponents Steven Porter ran in 2004 and 2006, raising about $200K each time, English had about $1.5 million each time

Current opponents Kyle Foust $55K raised, $25K COH

Mike Waltner $100K raised, $65K COH

Tom Myers $140K raised, $75K COH

Kathy Dahlkemper $154K raised, $117K COH;

Demographics 33rd most Whites (93.7%), 42nd fewest Latinos (1.3%)

Assessment Superribbie ranks it as the 50th most vulnerable Republican seat.  On the DCCC list .  The fact that all those Democrats are running is a sign that English is vulnerable.

District: PA-04

Location Western PA, bordering OH

Representative Jason Altmire (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 52-48

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 54-45

Notes on opponents In 2006, Altmire ousted Melissa Hart, raising $1.1 million, about half what she raised

Current opponents Hart is back for a rematch, but she has a primary challenger (Ron Francis).  Francis has raised $160K, $113 COH; Hart has raised $385K, $332K COH.

Altmire has raised $1.1 million, $911K COH

Demographics 21st most White (94.3%), tied for fewest Latinos (0.6%)

Assessment Superribbie ranks it as the ninth most vulnerable Democratic seat, and it’s on the DCCC list .  While not safe, Altmire beat Hart, with less money than her, when she was an incumbent.  Now he’s got more money, and he’s the incumbent.  I don’t think it’s quite as vulnerable as Superribbie.

District: PA-05

Location Northern PA, bordering NY.

Representative John Peterson (R) retiring

First elected  1996

2006 margin 60-40

2004 margin 88-12 against a Libertarian

Bush margin 2004 61-39

Notes on opponents In 2006, Don Hilliard raised no money and still got 40%

Current opponents Democrats:

Mark McCracken

Bill Cahir

Rick Vilello

Lots of Republicans. No fundraising numbers from anyone

Demographics 32nd most rural (54%), 6th lowest income (median = $33K), 6th most Whites (96%), 47th fewest Blacks (1.3%), 11th fewest Latinos (0.8%), 99th most Republican

Assessment Somewhat vulnerable. Superribbie ranks it as the 58th most vulnerable Republican seat. The fact that we are competitive here, in a naturally Republican seat, is a really good sign

District: PA-06

Location West of Philadelphia

Representative Jim Gerlach (R)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 51-49

2004 margin 51-49

Bush margin 2004 48-51

Notes on opponents Lois Murphy ran in 2004 and 2006, in 2004, she raised $1.9 million to Gerlach’s $2.2 million; in 2006, she raised $4 million to his $3.5 million

Current opponents Bob Roggio no funding info.  Gerlach has $500K COH

Demographics 70th highest income (median = $56K)

Assessment Somewhat vulnerable,   Superribbie ranks it as the 22nd most vulnerable Republican seat.  On the DCCC list .  Not sure why Roggio has no FEC numbers

District: PA-07

Location Southeastern PA, bordering DE, including King of Prussia

Representative Joe Sestak (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 56-44

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 47-53

Notes on opponents In 2006, Sestak ousted Curt Weldon; each raised about $3 million

Current opponents Curt Weldon has $90K COH (but, per comments, appears to not be in it), Craig Williams, no info.  Sestak has $1.7 million COH

Demographics 67th highest income (median = $56K), 41st fewest Latinos (1.3%)

Assessment Superribbie ranks it as the 36th most vulnerable Democratic seat; Sestak’s formidable fundraising advantage makes it a little less vulnerable, I  think

District: PA-08

Location The southeast corner of PA, bordering NJ

Representative Patrick Murphy (D)

First elected 2006

2006 margin 1418 votes out of 250,000

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 48-51

Notes on opponents In 2006, Murphy ousted Mike Fitzpatrick; Murphy raised $2.4 million to Fitzpatrick’s $3.2

Current opponents Thomas Manion (no funding info); Murphy has $1.2 million COH

Demographics 44th highest income (median = $59K),

Assessment   Superribbie ranks it as the 22nd most vulnerable Democratic seat. On the DCCC list .  Another potentially close race, where we appear to have a huge lead in fundraising

District: PA-09

Location The central part of southern PA, bordering MD and a little of WV

Representative Bill Shuster (R)

First elected 2001  

2006 margin 60-40

2004 margin 69-30

Bush margin 2004 67-33

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents Tony Barr who got 40% with almost no money in 2006, is running again. No funding info on Barr, but Shuster has only $188K COH, not much for an incumbent at this stage

Demographics 19th most rural (59.5%), 3rd most White (96.4%), 60th fewest Blacks (1.6%), 17th fewest Latinos (0.9%), 2nd fewest nonBlack, nonWhite, nonLatino, 42nd most Republican

Assessment  Long shot

District: PA-10

Location Northeastern PA, bordering NY and NJ

Representative Christopher  Carney (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 53-47

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 60-40

Notes on opponents In 2006, Carney ousted Don Sherwood, spending $1.5 million to Sherwood’s $3 million

Current opponents  Dan Meuser has raised the most of several Republicans: He has $398 COH; Chris Hackett has $386K; others much less.  Carney has $766K.  

Demographics 27th most rural (55.4%), 9th most White (95.5%), 71st least Black (1.9%), 51st least Latinos (1.4%)

Assessment Very vulnerable Superribbie ranks it as the 5th most vulnerable Democratic seat. On the DCCC list .

District: PA-11

Location Eastern PA, including Scranton and Wilkes-Barre

Representative Paul Kanjorski (D)

First elected  1984

2006 margin 72-28

2004 margin 94-6 against a minor party

Bush margin 2004 47-53

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents  Lou Barletta has $851 COH and $300K in debt (hmmmm….). Kanjorski has $1.5 million.  He should share

Demographics 97th lowest income (median = $35K)

Assessment  Safe

District: PA-12

Location An odd, thready district in southwest PA

Representative John Murtha (D)

First elected  1974

2006 margin 61-39

2004 margin unopposed

Bush margin 2004 49-51

Notes on opponents In 2006, Diana Irey raised $850K to Murtha’s $3.2 million.

Current opponents William Russell has $25K COH, Murtha has $529K

Demographics 32nd poorest (median income = $31K), 16th most Whites (95.0%).  3rd fewest Latinos (0.6%)

Assessment Safe

District: PA-13

Location Suburbs and exurbs of Philadelphia

Representative Allyson Schwartz (D)

First elected  2004

2006 margin 66-34

2004 margin 56-44

Bush margin 2004 43-56

Notes on opponents In 2004, this seat was open and Schwartz beat Melissa Brown, raising $4.5 million to Brown’s $1.9 million. In 2006, Raj Bhakta raised $400K to Schwartz’ $2.2 million

Current opponents Marina Kats has no fundraising report.  Schwartz has $1.6 million COH, she should share

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: PA-14

Location Pittsburgh and suburbs

Representative Mike Doyle (D)

First elected  1994

2006 margin 90-10 (against a Green)

2004 margin unopposed

Bush margin 2004 30-69

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents No Republican; Doyle has $400K COH

Demographics 26th lowest income (median = $30K), 71st most Blacks (22.5%), 41st most Democratic

Assessment  Free ride

District: PA-15

Location Central part of eastern NJ, including Allentown and Bethlehem, bordering NJ

Representative Charlie Dent (R)

First elected  2004

2006 margin 54-43

2004 margin 59-39

Bush margin 2004 Kerry won by 786 votes out of 300,000

Notes on opponents In 2004, this was an open seat, and Dent beat Joe Driscoll, each spending about $2 million.  In 2006, Charles Dertinger raised little

Current opponents Sam Bennett has raised $194K and has $94K COH; Dent has over $500K COH.  Bennett is one of my favorite candidates.

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Vulnerable. Superribbie ranks it as the 32nd most vulnerable Republican seat.

District: PA-16

Location Southeastern PA, centering on Lancaster

Representative Joe Pitts (R)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 57-40

2004 margin 64-34

Bush margin 2004 61-38

Notes on opponents Lois Herr ran both times, raising about $80K the first time and $300K in 2006; Pitts raised just under $500K the first time and just over that in 2006

Current opponents Bruce Slater has just $7K COH, to Pitts’ $175K

Demographics 86th most Republican

Assessment Long shot

District: PA-17

Location South and east of central PA, including Harrisburg

Representative Tim Holden (D)

First elected 1992

2006 margin 65-35

2004 margin 59-39

Bush margin 2004 58-42

Notes on opponents In 2004, Scott Paterno raised $1 million to Holden’s $1.6 million.  The 2006 opponent raised little

Current opponents Toni Gilhooley has $31K COH to Holden’s $780K

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: PA-18

Location Suburbs of Pittsburgh

Representative Tim Murphy (R)

First elected 2002

2006 margin 58-42

2004 margin 63-37

Bush margin 2004 54-46

Notes on opponents Each raised about $100K, Murphy raised over $1 million each time

Current opponents Beth Hafer $106K raised, $42K COH

Brien Wall $35K raised, $16K COH

Steve O’Donnell $260K raised, $203K COH

Daniel Wholey $56K raised, $45K COH

Demographics 10th most Whites (95.4%), 77th fewest Blacks (2.0%), tied for fewest Latinos (0.6%)

Assessment Vulnerable. Superribbie ranks it as the 60th most vulnerable Republican seat.  On the DCCC list

District: PA-19

Location Southern PA including Gettysburg

Representative Todd Platts (R)

First elected  2000

2006 margin 64-33

2004 margin 91-4 against a Green

Bush margin 2004 64-36

Notes on opponents Phillip Avilo raised $175K against Platts’ $375K

Current opponents Phil Avilo , no fundraising info

Demographics 68th most Whites (92.2%)

Assessment Long shot

District: RI-01

Location Northern and eastern RI, bordering MA and CT

Representative Patrick Kennedy (D)

First elected  1994

2006 margin 62-36

2004 margin 64-36

Bush margin 2004 36-62

Notes on opponents In 2004, David Rogers and Kennedy each raised about $2 million.  In 2006, his opponent raised little

Current opponents None; Kennedy has $700K COH, he should share

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment safe

District: RI-02

Location Most of the state

Representative Jim Langevin (D)

First elected  2000

2006 margin 73-27 against an Independent

2004 margin 75-21

Bush margin 2004 41-57

Notes on opponents  No money for Republicans

Current opponents None

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe