Tag: Rob Andrews

In the midst of more pressing political developments, a small snippet in a Reuters article caught my attention today; among the names mentioned as potential candidates for Treasury Secretary in an Obama administration, New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine's name stuck out.  As we all know, Corzine has years of expertise in the financial world, having led Goldman Sachs before embarking upon his political career, first as a U.S. Senator, and now as Governor.  Frankly, I think he'd be an excellent Treasury Secretary . . . which opens up a slew of possibilities and questions in the horserace of New Jersey politics.

If Corzine ascends to the Cabinet, State Senate President Richard Codey will take over as Acting Governor for the fourth time (he took over when Christine Todd Whitman became the head of the EPA during Bush's first term, when James McGreevey stepped down amidst scandal in 2004, and when Corzine was hospitalized after a severe car accident last year).  Codey is probably the most popular politician in the state; we Jerseyfolk are known to badmouth our politicians and rate them poorly, even as we keep re-electing them, but Dick Codey stands out as the one pol with favorable ratings.   I would venture a guess that an overwhelming majority of voters in the state would be glad to actually elect him as Governor, after he would hypothetically serve out the remainder of Corzine's term.

And, frankly, that's a good thing, what with Chris Christie waiting in the wings on the GOP side, ready to take down a less popular Democratic candidate in the gubernatorial race.   Of course, Codey's name has also been floated out as a possible Senate candidate down the road, if, for example, Lautenberg decides that this coming term will be his last before retiring.  With Codey safely in the Governor's seat, the door would be wide open for such progressives as Congressmen Rush Holt and Frank Pallone, and perhaps even Newark Mayor Cory Booker.  Any one of them could keep the Senate seat safely in Democratic hands (and probably fend off the requisite primary challenge from Rob Andrews).  All of them are young, and could conceivably hold the seat for many years.

What I just outlined was the best case scenario: Treasury Secretary Corzine, Governor Codey, and, eventually, Senator Holt, Pallone, or Booker.  Will the stars align as such?  Discuss away! 

Could it be that among the Senate races this year, that New Jersey would be more likely to flip than Louisiana?

With Crowley in, Sen. Lautenburg’s lackluster ratings come home to roost.  He could have a tough time agasinst a strong bio candidate.

Some considerations for this race:

1.  How will the Democratic priamry impact the fall election?  The worst result for Democrats is a realtively narrow (<15%) win for Lautenburg.

I can see quite a few crossovers to Crowley.  

2.  Would Rob Andrews be a stronger candidate?

From my distant view,  I would think so.  Now I know that Andrews is not as progressive, but he’s younger and would be better suited to take on Crowley, especially if Crowley is pushed to the right.  But he has to overcome the Democratic establishment and a 30+ deifict to win the primary.

3.  Where does Crowley stand on the issues?  Is he going to run as a social moderate, but fiscal conservative?  

4.  Much will depend on McCain’s strength in NJ.  If he carries the state or comes close, Crowley wins.  He is McCain’s candidate and fit his “Service to America” theme.

In short, if this wasn’t supposed to be a Democratic year, I’d rate this Lean Republican.  So I think it’s a tossup.

PolitickerNJ has the confirmation: Rep. Rob Andrews (NJ-01) will challenge Sen. Frank Lautenberg in the Democratic primary for NJ-Sen. The primary is June 3rd. A new poll shows Lautenberg with a hefty lead, but undoubtedly name rec is playing a big role here. Meanwhile, NJ pols are rushing to pick sides. This is going to be a serious battle, and I wouldn’t be surprised if other members of Congress jump in as well.

This also opens up Andrews’ House seat, a safe D+14 district. Undoubtedly there will be a ton of scrambling to succeed Andrews.