SSP Daily Digest: 12/17

AZ-Sen: There have been vague rumblings that maybe Jon Kyl, the GOP’s 68-year-old #2 in the Senate, may not be running for another term… but that seems to be coming into sharper relief all of a sudden. Kyl has refused to publicly discuss his plans, the GOP’s state chair is saying Kyl is not likely to run again, and people are starting to notice that he’s sitting on only $620K CoH and hasn’t engaged in any fundraising yet. (Although it’s likely, once he decides, that he could quickly do whatever fundraising was needed to win.)

CT-Sen: Ex-Rep. Rob Simmons sounds torn about another Senate run in 2012, and refuses to rule it out. However, he sounds unenthused, not so much because of his odds in the general as the likelihood of butting heads with the NRSC in the primary, whom he thinks has a fixation on Linda McMahon and her self-funding ability. Meanwhile, Rep. Chris Murphy is busy framing his “no” vote on the tax compromise in populist terms, clearly trying to set up some contrasts with Joe Lieberman.

NE-Sen: I’d thought AG Jon Bruning was supposed to be some sort of killer-app for the local GOP to go against Ben Nelson, but you wouldn’t know it by the way they’ve kept casting about for more talent. Local insiders are still publicly airing their wish list, adding a couple more prominent names to it: Rep. Jeff Fortenberry and state Auditor Mike Foley. One lower-tier option is also floating her own name: state Sen. Deb Fischer, who represents that big empty north-central part of the state and says she’ll decide on a run once the legislative session is over.

OR-Sen: Best wishes for a quick recovery to Ron Wyden, who will be undergoing surgery on Monday for prostate cancer. While it sounds like he’ll be back on his feet soon, he’ll be unable to vote for anything next week, which could complicate the final rush to wrap up stuff in the lame duck.

TN-Sen: Bob Corker occasionally gets mentioned, at least in the rightosphere, as the possible recipient of a tea party primary challenge in 2012. The Hill finds that this may be fizzling on the launching pad, for the very simple reason that no one seems to be stepping forward to consider the race.

WI-Sen: PPP is out with its poll of the 2012 GOP Senate primary, with another one of those let’s-test-everyone-and-their-dog fields, but unlike some of the other states they’ve looked at in the last few weeks, a U.S. Rep. wins, rather than a statewide figure. Paul Ryan (who probably gets enough Fox News attention to trump the disadvantage of representing only 1/8th of the state) is far in the lead at 52. Ex-Gov. Tommy Thompson (who if he didn’t run this year surely isn’t going to in 2012) is at 14, ex-Rep. Mark Green is at 9, AG JB Van Hollen and new Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch are at 6, new Rep. Sean Duffy is at 5, and already-forgotten 2010 contender Dave Westlake is at 1.

IN-Gov, IN-09: Baron Hill says he most likely isn’t going to be running for anything in 2012, not Governor, and not his old seat in the 9th, saying he’s looking into private sector jobs for now, though also leaving the gubernatorial door “slightly open.” Interestingly, he seemed more enthused about a run for Governor in 2016 (which may be a tougher road to hoe, if there’s an entrenched GOP incumbent then instead of an open seat like 2012), although he also commented that “I don’t know if I’ll be alive in 2016.”

MO-Gov: In case there was any doubt, Democratic incumbent Jay Nixon confirmed that he’ll run for re-election as Governor in 2012. Nixon also said that he’s raised $1 million for that race just since November; he’ll need it.

WV-Gov: For what it’s worth, two of the state’s largest unions would like to see an expedited special election to replace Joe Manchin. Democratic House Speaker (and likely gubernatorial candidate) Rick Thompson agrees with them, saying there’s a constitutional conflict of interest in acting Gov./Senate president Earl Ray Tomblin’s dual position. In what may not be a surprise, Tomblin disagrees, saying that the law is clear that the special will be held in 2012.

CA-06: Rep. Lynn Woolsey is seeming like she may be one of the first retirements of the cycle, if the flurry of activity among lower-level Marin County politicos jockeying for position is any indication. The 73-year-old is publicly weighing retirement, and state Assemblyman Jared Huffman has already formed an exploratory committee to run in her stead. State Sen. Noreen Evans, Sonoma Co. Commissioner Shirlee Zane, and Petaluma mayor Pam Torliatt are also listed as possible replacements.

FL-25: It certainly didn’t take newly-elected Rep. David Rivera to get in legal trouble, and it’s something completely new, instead of anything having to do with that whole let’s-run-that-truck-off-the-road incident. He’s under investigation for an alleged $500,000 in secret payments from a greyhound track that he helped out to a marketing firm that’s “run” by his septuagenarian mother.

ID-01: Don’t count on a rematch from Walt Minnick (or a run for higher office in Idaho, either): he says he’s done with elective politics. An oft-overlooked fact about Minnick: he’s a little older than your average freshman, at 68. He wasn’t going to be in the seat for much longer or look to move up anyway.

NY-14: Remember Reshma Saujani, after losing the Dem primary in the 14th, said “I’m definitely running again” and “There’s no way I’m going to be ones of those folks who runs, loses, and you never see them again.” Well, fast forward a few months, and now she’s definitely not running again, although she may be looking toward a run for something in 2013 at the municipal level.

DCCC: The DCCC held its first real strategy session of the cycle yesterday, and the list of top-tier targets that emerged is pretty predictable (Dan Lungren, Charlie Bass, Charlie Dent, Bob Dold!) except for one: Leonard Lance, who’s proved pretty durable so far. They may be counting on Lance’s NJ-07, which occupies roughly the middle of the state, to get tossed into the blender in the redistricting process.

Votes: Here’s the vote tally from yesterday’s vote in the House on the tax compromise. It was a very unusual breakdown, with Dems breaking 139 yes/112 no and the GOP breaking 138 yes/36 no, with the “no”s coming generally from each party’s hard-liners, in a manner vaguely reminiscent of how the TARP vote broke down. (Also, some defeated or retiring Blue Dogs still voted “no,” like Allen Boyd, Gene Taylor, and Earl Pomeroy… while Dennis Kucinich was a “yes.”)

History: Here’s an interesting story about the end of a little-known but important era in North Dakota politics: the effective end of the Non-Partisan League, a vaguely-socialist/populist farmers’ party that cross-endorsed Democrats for many decades, and had an outsized influence on the state (as seen in their state-owned bank and similar enterprises). With Byron Dorgan retired, most NPL stalwarts dead or aging, and agribusiness having replaced the family farm, it looks like the end of the NPL’s line.

Redistricting: Dave Wasserman is out with a preview of next week’s reapportionment, and he’s rightly treating it like the NCAA playoffs draw, in that there a bunch of states on the bubble of getting or losing seats. Here’s how that plays out:

Georgia, Nevada, and Utah are all but certain to gain an additional seat in the House, while Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania are all but certain to lose a seat and Ohio is all but certain to lose two seats…. the ten states in contention for the “last five” seats in the House (in order of likelihood to make the cut) are South Carolina, Florida, Minnesota, Washington, Texas, New York, California, Arizona, North Carolina, and Illinois.

He’s also been tinkering around with Dave’s Redistricting App, and has some maps that you’ll want to check out. Maybe most interestingly, there’s a solution to the IL-17 problem that actually makes it more Democratic while letting Aaron Schock and Bobby Schilling get much better acquainted with each other (the Fix also takes a look at Illinois today, coming up with similar ideas). Also worth a look: a good 10-district Washington map that gives Dave Reichert a heaping helping of eastern Washington.

Site news: Due to holiday travel, other time commitments, and hopefully what will be a very slow news week, the Daily Digest will be on hiatus all next week. Don’t worry, though: I’ll make sure to be around on the 21st for the Census reapportionment data release (hell, maybe I’ll even liveblog the news conference), and if there’s any important breaking news, someone will get it up on the front page. In the meantime, happy holidays from the whole SSP team!

SSP Daily Digest: 10/29 (Afternoon Edition)

FL-Sen: File this under half a year too late and a few million dollars too short. Charlie Crist, as quietly as possible through an advisor making a leak to the Wall Street Journal, says he’d caucus with the Democrats if elected. If he’d said that many months ago, he would have probably had a clearer shot consolidating the Democratic vote and turning it into a two-man race. This comes shortly after a day of conflicting reports on whether or not Bill Clinton tried to get Kendrick Meek to drop out of the race, as recently as last week. Clinton and Meek have offered partial rebuttals, but at any rate, it’s kind of a non-story at this point with only a few days left.

LA-Sen: Too bad there isn’t time left in the cycle to turn this into an ad: David Vitter’s verbal gymnastics at the last debate as to direct questions as to whether or not he actually broke the law when he was engaging in “very serious sin,” apparently for pay. The short answer is, of course, yes (assuming that his involvement with a prostitution ring occurred in Washington DC and not Reno).

NV-Sen: Those of you following Jon Ralston’s tweets of the early voting in Nevada with bated breath probably already know this, but thanks to the movement of the mobile voting booths into some Dem-friendly areas, Democrats have actually pulled into the lead (at least by party registration) among early voters, up by 20,000 in Clark County.

CO-Gov: My first question was why Tom Tancredo would even bother running for office if he felt this way, but then I remembered that he’s running for an executive position this time, not a legislative one. Apparently he’s a believer in a strong executive. Very, very, very strong.

There is a sort of an elitist idea that seeps into the head of a lot of people who get elected. And they begin to think of themselves as, really, there for only one purpose and that is to make laws. And why would you make laws?

IL-Gov: Oooops, ad buy fail. A round of Bill Brady ads were pulled from the air on Thursday because the appropriate television stations didn’t get paid first. It appears to have been a “glitch” (their words) rather than a cash flow problem, though, nothing that a Fed-Exed check won’t fix: the ads will resume running tonight.

PA-Gov: Ah, nice to see that a Republican briefly acknowledge that the fewer people vote, the better Republicans do. Tom Corbett, at a Philadelphia appearance, said that he wanted to keep Democratic participation down, saying “we want to make sure that they don’t get 50 percent.”

OH-13: Sensing a pattern here? A second woman is coming forward to accuse Tom Ganley of sexual harassment. She filed a police report stating that in 2005, while in the middle of a car transaction, Ganley groped her and later propositioned her. This race, despite Ganley’s money, is seeming increasingly like one of the House Dems’ lesser worries.

RGA: I’m not sure what you can do with $6.5 million in half a week, but the RGA is determined to find out. They put that much money into four governor’s races in some of the nation’s largest states: Florida, Illinois, Ohio, and (interestingly, since they haven’t sweated this one before) Pennsylvania. (While the other three are for TV ads, in Florida it’s for GOTV… seemingly something that Rick Scott forgot to purchase.)

Election night: This may be the most shocking news of all today, for the obsessive number crunchers among us. This will be the first election where the powers that be (mostly the AP) will be doing away with precinct reporting. Instead of giving specific numbers of precincts in, they’ll be expressing it as “percentage of expected vote.” The change in longstanding tradition has mostly to do with the increasing prevalence of mail-in votes and early votes, best seen with some locales dumping all their early votes all at once and calling it one precinct, messing with people like us who build complicated models ahead of time.

SSP TV:

IL-Sen: Mark Kirk’s last ad calls Alexi Giannoulias “too immature” for the Senate (um, has he actually seen the Senate in action?)

NV-Sen: Obama! Fear! Tyranny! Aaaghh! And apparently the Carmina Burana playing the background! (Sharron Angle’s closing statement, in other words)

WI-Sen: Russ Feingold puts on a plaid shirt and faces the camera, touting his accomplishments and newspaper endorsements

TX-Gov: Bill White also rolls out his newspaper endorsements, as well as lobbing “career politician” at Rick Perry one last time

MN-06: Taryl Clark’s last ad is a look at real people with real problems in the 6th, and the myriad ways Michele Bachmann blew them off

Rasmussen:

CA-Gov: Jerry Brown (D) 49%, Meg Whitman (R) 45%

CO-Gov: John Hickenlooper (D) 47%, Dan Maes (R) 5%, Tom Tancredo (C) 42%

KY-Sen: Jack Conway (D) 41%, Rand Paul (R) 53%

MA-Gov: Deval Patrick (D-inc) 46%, Charlie Baker (R) 44%, Tim Cahill (I) 6%

OR-Sen: Ron Wyden (D-inc) 53%, Jim Huffman (R) 42%

PA-Sen: Joe Sestak (D) 46%, Pat Toomey (R) 50%

YouGov: The English pollster is out with a slew of polls; the numbers seem very plausible, but they’re conducted over the Internet (probably using at least some sort of rigor, but that alone is enough for relegation to the end of the digest)

CA: Jerry Brown (D) 50%, Meg Whitman (R) 41%; Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 49%, Carly Fiorina (R) 45%

FL: Alex Sink (D) 44%, Rick Scott (R) 41%; Kendrick Meek (D) 18%, Marco Rubio (R) 42%, Charlie Crist (I) 31%

NY: Andrew Cuomo (D) 57%, Carl Paladino (R) 27%; Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc) 57%, Joe DioGuardi (R) 33%; Charles Schumer (D-inc) 59%, Jay Townsend (R) 35%

OH: Ted Strickland (D-inc) 45%, John Kasich (R) 48%; Lee Fisher (D) 40%, Rob Portman (R) 53%

PA: Dan Onorato (D) 41%, Tom Corbett (R) 50%; Joe Sestak (D) 44%, Pat Toomey (R) 50%

SSP Daily Digest: 10/20 (Morning Edition)

Too many polls, too little time. A quick-and-dirty morning digest for you.

  • CA-Sen, CA-Gov – SurveyUSA: Boxer (D-inc) 46, Fiorina (R) 44; Brown 47 (D), Whitman (R) 40
  • CA-Sen, CA-Gov (PDF) – Wilson Research (R): Boxer (D-inc) 43, Fiorina (R) 46; Brown (D) 44, Whitman (R) 45
  • CO-Sen, CO-Gov (PDF) – Ipsos/Reuters: Bennet (D) 45, Buck (R) 48; Hickenlooper (D) 46, Maes (R) 14, Tancredo (ACP) 35
  • FL-02 – Susquehanna for Sunshine State News: Boyd (D-inc) 38, Southerland (R) 50
  • GA-Gov – Insider Advantage: Barnes (D) 40, Deal (R) 45
  • KY-Sen – Bennet, Petts and Normington (D) for the DSCC: Conway (D) 49, Paul (R) 47
  • Note: I’m informed that this poll had a sample of 600.

  • MA-04 – Kiley & Co. (D) for Barney Frank: Frank (D-inc) 56, Bielat (R) 37
  • MD-Gov, MD-Sen (PDF) – Gonzales Research: O’Malley (D-inc) 47, Ehrlich (R) 42; Mikulski (D-inc) 55, Wargotz (R) 38
  • NC-Sen (PDF) – Public Policy Polling: Burr (R-inc) 48, Marshall (D) 40
  • NJ-06 – National Research (R): Pallone (D-inc) 44, Little (R) 43
  • NY-19 (PDF) – Monmouth: Hall (D-inc) 49, Hayworth (R) 48
  • NY-Sen, NY-Sen-B (PDF) – New York Times: Schumer (D-inc) 61, Townsend (R) 21; Gillibrand (D-inc) 50, DioGuardi (R) 25
  • OH-Gov – Quinnipiac: Strickland (D-inc) 41, Kasich (R) 51
  • OR-Gov, OR-Sen – Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos: Kitzhaber (D) 48, Dudley (R) 47; Wyden (D-inc) 56, Huffman (R) 40
  • SC-Gov (PDF) – Crantford & Associates (D): Sheheen (D) 41, Haley (R) 43
  • UT-02 Dan Jones & Associates: Matheson (D-inc) 57, Philpot (R) 31
  • WI-Sen – St. Norbert: Feingold (D-inc) 47, Johnson (R) 49
  • WI-07 – We Ask America: Lassa (D) 39, Duffy (R) 46
  • Margins & Errors: Marc Ambinder tweets about supposedly close internals on both sides in OH-Gov… If the gang at NBC is to be believed, Joe Miller might be turning into Bizarro Scozzafava: “Miller’s getting close to being in free-fall if some private polling is to be believed.”… The Fix faithfully transcribes a batch of NRCC polls, without firm names, sample sizes, or field dates

    Weekend Poll Dump: Senate, Gov, and Other Miscellany

    AK-Sen: National Research, Inc. for the Club for Growth (10/8-9, likely voters):

    Scott McAdams (D): 27

    Lisa Murkowski (WI-inc): 31

    Joe Miller (R): 33

    (MoE: ±4.9%)

    CA-Sen, CA-Gov, Prop 23: Ipsos for Reuters (10/12-14, likely voters, 10/2-4 in parens):

    Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 46 (49)

    Carly Fiorina (R): 45 (45)

    Jerry Brown (D): 48 (50)

    Meg Whitman (R): 44 (43)

    Yes on 23: 35

    No on 23: 46

    (MoE: ±4.6%)

    CT-Gov: Quinnipiac (10/7-11, likely voters, 9/21-26 in parens):

    Dan Malloy (D): 49 (45)

    Tom Foley (R): 42 (42)

    (MoE: ±2.9%)

    FL-Gov: Susquehanna for Sunshine State News (10/12-13, likely voters, 9/28-10/3 in parens):

    Alex Sink (D): 48 (44)

    Rick Scott (R): 44 (50)

    (MoE: ±2.2%)

    HI-Gov: Aloha Vote for Honolulu Civil Beat (10/11, likely voters):

    Neil Abercrombie (D): 47

    Duke Aiona (R): 44

    (MoE: ±2.9%)

    KS-Sen, KS-Gov: Survey USA for KWCH-TV (10/10-12, likely voters, 9/14-16 in parens):

    Tom Holland (D): 32 (32)

    Sam Brownback (R): 60 (59)

    Andrew Gray (L): 3 (3)

    Ken Cannon (Ref): 4 (4)

    Lisa Johnston (D): 27 (24)

    Jerry Moran (R): 67 (66)

    Michael Dann (L): 2 (2)

    Joe Bellis (Ref): 3 (5)

    (MoE: ±4%)

    For SoS, Dems trail 35-53; for State Treasurer, it’s 39-55. For Attorney General, appointed Dem Steve Six trails Derek Schmidt 40-48.

    MA-Gov: Suffolk University (10/10-12, registered voters, 9/14-16 in parens):

    Deval Patrick (D-inc): 46 (41)

    Charlie Baker (R): 39 (34)

    Tim Cahill (I): 10 (14)

    Jill Stein (G): 1 (4)

    (MoE: ±4.4%)

    ME-Gov: Critical Insights for Maine Today Media (10/10-11, likely voters, 9/27 in parens):

    Libby Mitchell (D): 29 (33)

    Paul LePage (R): 34 (33)

    Eliot Cutler (I): 13 (10)

    Shawn Moody (I): 7 (6)

    Kevin Scott (I): 1 (-)

    (MoE: ±4.0%)

    MN-Gov: SurveyUSA for KSTP-TV (10/11-13, likely voters, 9/12-14 in parens):

    Mark Dayton (DFL): 42 (38)

    Tom Emmer (R): 37 (36)

    Tom Horner (IP): 14 (18)

    Other: 3 (5)

    (MoE: ±3.7%)

    NH-Sen: University of New Hampshire (10/7-12, likely voters, 9/23-29 in parens):

    Paul Hodes (D): 35 (35)

    Kelly Ayotte (R): 50 (50)

    Other: 3 (2)

    (MoE: ±3.7%)

    NV-Sen, NV-Gov: MasonDixon for the LVRJ (10/11-12, likely voters, 9/20-22 in parens):

    Harry Reid (D-inc): 45 (43)

    Sharron Angle (R): 47 (43)

    Other: 2 (2)

    NOTA: 2 (4)

    Rory Reid (D): 37 (37)

    Brian Sandoval (R): 52 (51)

    Other: 2 (3)

    NOTA: 1 (2)

    (MoE: ±4%)

    NV-Gov: Public Policy Polling (10/7-9, likely voters, July in parens):

    Rory Reid (D): 43 (38)

    Brian Sandoval (R): 52 (52)

    (MoE: ±4.4%)

    NV-Gov: Suffolk University (10/8-11, likely voters, in parens):

    Rory Reid (D): 39

    Brian Sandoval (R): 50

    Other: 2

    NOTA: 3

    (MoE: ±4.4%)

    Bonus findings: Incumbent LG Brian Krolicki (R) leads Dem Jessica Sferrazza 42-30, Dem SoS Ross Miller leads 40-24, Dem Treasurer Kate Marshall trails 33-38, and Dem Controller Kim Wallin leads 31-26.

    NY-Gov, NY-Sen, NY-Sen-B: SurveyUSA for WABC-TV, WHEC-TV, and WNYT-TV (10/11-13, likely voters, in parens):

    Andrew Cuomo (D): 59 (57)

    Carl Paladino (R): 33 (34)

    Other: 6 (5)

    Chuck Schumer (D): 63 (60)

    Jay Townsend (R): 30 (30)

    Other: 4 (6)

    Kirsten Gillibrand (D): 54 (54)

    Joe DioGuardi (R): 36 (35)

    Other: 7 (8)

    (MoE: ±3.9%)

    Bonus finding: Manhattan/Bronx state Senator Eric Schneiderman (D) leads Staten Island DA Dan Donovan (R) for Attorney General 44-40, down from 46-40 a week ago.

    OH-Sen, OH-Gov: Univ. of Cincinnati for the Ohio Poll(10/8-13, likely voters, 9/16-20 in parens):

    Lee Fisher (D): 36 (40)

    Rob Portman (R): 58 (55)

    Ted Strickland (D-inc): 43 (45)

    John Kasich (R): 51 (49)

    (MoE: ±3.7%)

    OK-Sen: Sooner Poll (10/3-7, likely voters):

    Jim Rogers (D): 22

    Tom Coburn (R-inc): 62

    Other: 2

    (MoE: ±5.2%)

    Other results here find the GOP leading for all statewide offices: 40-28 for LG, 50-30 for Attorney General, 41-35 for Insurance Commissioner, 45-31 for Treasurer, 35-32 for State Superintendent, 44-33 for Labor Commissioner, and 41-35 for Auditor/Inspector. Dems had held most of these offices, if you’ll recall.

    OR-Gov, OR-Sen: SurveyUSA for KATU-TV (10/12-14, likely voters, 9/12-14 in parens):

    John Kitzhaber (D): 46 (43)

    Chris Dudley (R): 45 (49)

    Greg Kord (C): 4 (3)

    Wes Wagner (L): 3 (2)

    Ron Wyden (D-inc): 56 (54)

    Jim Huffman (R): 34 (38)

    Bruce Cronk (WF): 2 (3)

    Marc Delphine (L): 2 (1)

    Rick Staggenborg (P): 2 (0)

    (MoE: ±3.9%)

    PA-Gov: Magellan (10/10, likely voters, 9/21 in parens):

    Dan Onorato (D): 38 (38)

    Tom Corbett (R): 48 (50)

    (MoE: ±2.3%)

    VT-Sen, VT-Gov, VT-AL: Mason-Dixon for Vermont Public Radio (10/11-13, registered voters):

    Patrick Leahy (D-inc): 62

    Len Britton (R): 27

    Other: 4

    Peter Shumlin (D): 43

    Brian Dubie (R): 44

    Other: 5

    Peter Welch (D): 61

    Paul Beaudry (R): 25

    Other: 4

    (MoE: ±4%)

    WA-Sen: Washington Poll (10/5-14, registered voters, in parens):

    Patty Murray (D-inc): 50

    Dino Rossi (R): 42

    (MoE: ±4.3%)

    WA-Sen: SurveyUSA for KING-TV (10/11-14, likely voters, in parens):

    Patty Murray (D-inc): 50 (50)

    Dino Rossi (R): 47 (48)

    (MoE: ±4.1%)

    SSP Daily Digest: 10/13 (Afternoon Edition)

    AK-Sen: In the avalanche of various other acts of hypocrisy and self-dealing that have come out about Joe Miller in the last few weeks, somehow I missed this one: not only did he avail himself of low-income hunting and fishing licenses, but his family has received assistance from Medicaid and similar state-level Denali Kidcare. Somewhere, his most ardent supporters are hurling their copies of Atlas Shrugged into the fireplace in disgust, learning that their mighty Producer is nothing more than a parasite, weakly availing himself of every program under the sun designed to enslave man. (And somewhere, either heaven or Rick Barber’s fevered imagination, James Madison is hurling his copy of the Federalist Papers into the fireplace, upset that this ostensible patriot is availing himself of such a plainly unconstitutional program.)

    DE-Sen: I think this had been made pretty clear few weeks ago, but Mike Castle reiterated it in as official terms as possible on CNN yesterday: he’s not endorsing anybody in the Senate race.

    FL-Sen: Very-tanned centrist GOPer governors gotta stick together, and Arnold Schwarzenegger just gave his probably-not-worth-much backing to Charlie Crist yesterday. The Marco Rubio camp may have gotten the last laugh here, though:

    “When it comes to inflicting ‘Collateral Damage’ on the economy, Charlie Crist and Arnold Schwarzenegger are definitely ‘Twins.’  Charlie’s flip-flops have made him a master at telling ‘True Lies.’ We all know the only thing Charlie cares about is the next election. But this year, Florida will take an ‘Eraser’ to ‘The Running Man.'” – Rubio campaign spokesman Alex Burgos, responding to Schwarzenegger’s endorsement of Crist.

    PA-Sen: I wouldn’t start popping the champagne cork (or even buy a bottle of champagne) yet, but the DSCC seems to be seeing some negative-ad-driven progress in Pennsylvania. They’ve released an internal poll, via Garin Hart Yang, that actually gives Joe Sestak the lead. He’s up 44-42 over Pat Toomey, in a poll taken Oct. 8-10. With leaners pushed, Sestak expands to a 47-44 lead. No public pollster has seen anything like that (at least yet).

    WA-Sen: If you’re wondering what’s up with the huge disparities in Washington Senate numbers between the live-caller and auto-dialed polls, you’re not alone. Nate Silver doesn’t exactly have answers, pointing to unique Washington variables that confound pollsters, like its (almost entirely) vote-by-mail status and its large number of cellphone-only users. But he does have some interesting charts showing that Rasmussen and SurveyUSA have consistently overestimated GOP performance all decade long in Washington (while, at the same time, Elway has overestimated Dem performance).

    WV-Sen: Hot on the heels of PPP’s poll showing Joe Manchin back in the lead, the DSCC is out with an internal poll showing similar numbers. The GQR poll from Oct. 7-12, the height of “hicky” mania, gives Manchin a 49-44 lead over John Raese, whose 40/38 faves lag Manchin’s 63/28.

    CA-Gov: All previous political self-funding records are quickly receding in Meg Whitman’s rearview mirror, as she just plowed another $20 million into her gubernatorial bid, bringing her all-cycle total to over $141 million.

    WV-Gov: I don’t know what West Virginians’ aversion to comprehensible succession laws is, but after emerging from the morass of how to replace Robert Byrd, now the legislature is grappling with what to do with the Governor position if Joe Manchin manages to win the Senate special election. Legislative lawyers say that unless the legislature takes some sort of action, Senate President Earl Ray Tomblin would take over as “acting governor” for the entire remainder of Manchin’s term, until the regularly scheduled Nov. 2012 election… but that there would be two elections that day, one for the full four years and one for the lame-duck period.

    FL-25: I look forward to seeing David Rivera’s explanation:

    Over the past seven years, Republican state Rep. David Rivera repeatedly said in sworn documents that his main source of income, outside of his salary from the Legislature, came from consulting work he did for the U.S. Agency for International Development. But USAID has no record of ever hiring Rivera — now a candidate for Congress — or his company.

    KS-04: SurveyUSA has shown an unexpectedly close race (for an open seat in a dark-red district in this climate), with several polls in high single digits, so GOP nominee Mike Pompeo is offering some pushback with an internal from Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates from Oct. 10-11. His poll gives him a 48-31 lead over Raj Goyle. (You may recall that this pollster works with the Club for Growth, and is responsible for highlights like this one. Senator Dick Zimmer vouches for their accuracy!)

    NY-24: Richard Hanna’s out with an internal poll, courtesy of  McLaughlin (no dates given by Politico, and with a big fat MoE of 5.6%). Hanna leads, but only by 46-43. Considering that Hanna is trying to push back against not a Mike Arcuri internal but an honest-to-gosh public poll (from Siena) with an Arcuri lead of 8, that seems like kind of weak sauce.

    MN-06: Today’s fundraising highlight is that Michele Bachmann pulled in $5.4 million in the third quarter. Interestingly, it looks like she’ll report “only” $3.4 million cash on hand, suggesting a similar phenomenon as Sharron Angle (for whom there weren’t any CoH numbers at all), where there’s a lot of churn going on not just for a TV blitz but also for widespread nationwide direct-mail marketing, which is expensive. (Just ask Joe Cao.) While these numbers certainly don’t bode well as far as unseating Bachmann this year, the bright side is that’s money that low-information voters might otherwise have given to GOP House challengers in tight races who could have actually leveraged that money a lot more effectively.

    TX-27: Even if you’re a political junkie like us, yesterday’s internal poll was probably the first you’ve ever heard of Blake Farenthold. The DCCC fills in some blanks, suggesting that you’re probably not likely to hear too much about him in the future, either. He’s somehow sitting on a negative $5K in cash, and… I’m not quite sure how this happened, but he appears on the front of what appears to be some sort of local tea party-oriented publication, in pajamas, in the company of what appears to be some sort of sex-industry professional (and not as an example of what not to do, but apparently because said publication is endorsing him). Yeah, I’m just as confused as you; you’ll have to check out the link.

    WA-08: Ordinarily, we don’t report on newspaper endorsements, since they don’t seem to move many votes and are usually pretty predictable based on each paper’s e-board leanings. We’ll make an exception in this case, since Dave Reichert largely owes his continued existence to the Seattle Times, who’ve clung to him as, in their eyes, the last remaining exemplar of the old-style moderate Republicanism they fetishize. So it’s a strange and wondrous thing to see them turning their back on him in favor of Suzan DelBene.

    Blue Dogs: CQ has an interesting piece about the yawning leadership gap at the Blue Dogs, where two of its key members, John Tanner and Dennis Moore, are skedaddling. It cites a number of possible new heads (most notably Allen Boyd and Jim Matheson), but there’s a certain amount of cart-before-horse here, because the Blue Dogs are disproportionately in the crosshairs this cycle and it’s unclear how many of the key ones (Boyd, especially, as well as Stephanie Herseth Sandlin) will even be back.

    DLCC: The DLCC is out with its third and probably final installment in its “Essential Races” series, pointing you (and your contribution dollars) toward 15 more legislators in key races that might determine chamber control in some of the most important state legislatures.

    Money: More evidence that the advantage by the Democratic committees and individual members was pretty illusory, given the myriad ways (527s and 501(c)(4)s, oh my) that the wealthy have to plow nearly-unlimited money into political races: an alliance of groups (Karl Rove’s American Crossroads and Norm Coleman’s American Action Network, as well as a new one, Commission on Hope, Growth, and Opportunity) is planning a $50 million ad blitz focused on some relatively underserved House races. This includes IN-02, CO-07, and even Maurice Hinchey’s NY-22. (H/t Nathan Gonzales.)

    SSP TV:

    IL-Sen: Mark Kirk revisits the Broadway Bank yet again with his newest ad

    LA-Sen: A solid ad from Charlie Melancon, hitting David Vitter on outsourcing and cozying up to BP

    MO-Sen: Robin Carnahan tries some anti-Washington (including congressional pay raises) shots at Roy Blunt

    PA-Sen: VoteVets boosts Joe Sestak with a hit on Pat Toomey for voting against veterans’ benefits

    CT-Gov: The RGA has a boilerplate attack ad on Dan Malloy as tax-raising career politician

    HI-Gov: It’s not your imagination, this race is looking competitive, at least if the DGA is advertising here: they’re out with an anti-Duke Aiona ad

    IL-Gov: Pat Quinn’s new ad actually comes close to saying that Bill Brady will kill your dog if you vote for him.

    OH-Gov: Ted Strickland’s ad goes back to the basics: hitting John Kasich on his outsourcing Wall Street ways

    SC-Gov: The RGA is having to advertise and staff up in SC-Gov, probably much to their chagrin, as this looks like it’s turning into a real race: their new spot calls Vincent Sheheen liberal, morphs him into Obama, and does all the usual

    IL-17: The SEIU backs up one of labor’s biggest backers in the House, Phil Hare, with a 10-day buy for $317K in the Quad Cities, for an ad hitting Bobby Schilling on free trade and outsourcing

    PA-06: Manan Trivedi’s new ad goes after Jim Gerlach and ‘special interests’

    PA-08: VoteVets is also out with a spot in the 8th, hitting Mike Fitzpatrick on veterans’ benefits votes during his brief stay in Congress

    WI-03: The National Federation of Independent Business is out with a slew of new ads that includes softening up not-quite-top-tier Dem districts, with 10-day ad buys including not just WI-03 but also CA-11, CO-03, MO-03, NY-19, NY-23, PA-10, OH-16, and SC-05.

    Rasmussen:

    ME-Gov: Libby Mitchell (D) 32%, Paul LePage (R) 35%, Eliot Cutler (I) 21%

    NH-Gov: John Lynch (D-inc) 53%, John Stephen (R) 43%

    NV-Sen: Harry Reid (D-inc) 48%, Sharron Angle (R) 49%

    OH-Gov: Ted Strickland (D-inc) 45%, John Kasich (R) 48%

    OR-Sen: Ron Wyden (D) 52%, Jim Huffman (R) 36%

    WV-Sen: Joe Manchin (D) 46%, John Raese (R) 49%

    OR-Gov, OR-Sen: Two Very Different Results

    SurveyUSA for KATU-TV (9/12-14, likely voters, 7/25-27 in parentheses):

    John Kitzhaber (D): 43 (44)

    Chris Dudley (R): 49 (46)

    Other: 5 (7)

    Undecided: 3 (4)

    Ron Wyden (D-inc): 54 (53)

    Jim Huffman (R): 38 (35)

    Other: 4 (9)

    Undecided: 3 (3)

    (MoE: ±4.2%)

    SurveyUSA’s newest poll of the Oregon governor’s race continues to have Republican Chris Dudley leading Dem John Kitzhaber, this time by 6 points. It’s superficially easy to take this poll with a grain of salt, seeing as how SurveyUSA has wound up significantly in outlier territory in the states that bookend Oregon (in CA-Sen and WA-Sen) and the crosstabs offer the usual confounding details (like a 48-48 tie between the two in the Portland area). Even if you think this race is closer to a tie, though, geez, what a missed opportunity… John Kitzhaber spent a year trying to occupy the intellectual high ground, completely foregoing the opportunity to define Dudley early as a dilettanteish empty vessel, and all he got for his good intentions was a completely avoidable Tossup.

    Riley Research (pdf) (8/31-9/9, likely voters, no trendlines):

    John Kitzhaber (D): 40

    Chris Dudley (R): 39

    Other: 5

    Undecided: 16

    (MoE: ±5%)

    This has been a woefully underserved race, with SurveyUSA and Rasmussen left to set the story (with the only other poll I can think of, from well-respected local pollster Tim Hibbitts, showing the race a tie in early summer). So it’s good to get a second opinion from someone who’s a local pollster and not an auto-dialer (even if it’s one I’m not familiar with). They see this as a much closer race, giving Kitzhaber a tiny lead, although with a much bigger share of undecideds. Maybe most interestingly, Kitzhaber actually leads among indies (38-29); the problem here seems to be that Dudley fares much better among GOPers (79%) than Kitzhaber does among Dems (69%).

    SSP Daily Digest: 8/25 (Afternoon Edition)

    AK-Sen: I’ve got plenty of hearsay and conjecture. Those are kinds of evidence. (Ah, Lionel Hutz, always good for a quote.) Anyway, there’s lots of those kinds of evidence burning up the Twittersphere lately: maybe most significantly, the rumor that Alaska Dems are looking into getting Scott McAdams to stand down and inserting ex-Gov. Tony Knowles (the 2004 loser against Murkowski) to run in his place. Under state law, McAdams would have until 48 days before election day to drop out, but the wisdom of such a move seem uncertain, as McAdams is at least a fresh face and Knowles has two-time-loser taint. Also out there: that Lisa Murkowski is looking into some sort of independent run, which would probably have to take write-in form (although Taniel points out major practical problems with that). One other very weird alternative mentioned for Murkowski: commandeering the secessionist Alaska Independence Party. UPDATE: The Alaska state Dem party is about to hold a conference call with McAdams in which he lays out a path to victory, which certainly suggests that they aren’t abandoning him.

    NV-Sen: Is Sharron Angle following Michele Bachmann down that dark and winding path to… well, she’s already in Crazy Town, so whatever’s around the next bend beyond that. In an interview with a right-wing talk show host Bill Manders last year, Angle agreed with Manders that there were “domestic enemies” “in the walls of the Senate and the Congress.”

    WI-Sen: Here’s one more installment in the ongoing story of teabaggers adopting the “government money for me, not for thee” line of argumentation (a la Clint Didier and Stephen Fincher’s long history of happily accepting farm subsidies), disregarding the jaw-dropping hypocrisy that goes with it. It’s been revealed that Ron Johnson’s company, Paccur, got a $2.5 million government loan to pay for a 40,000 square foot expansion to its facilities. The revelation comes about a week after he said in an interview: “I have never lobbied for some special treatment or for a government payment… When you subsidize things…it doesn’t work through the free market system very well.”

    MD-Gov: Here’s a poll showing better-than-usual results for incumbent Dem governor Martin O’Malley, locked in a rematch battle with ex-Gov. Bob Ehrlich. The OpinionWorks poll, on behalf of a non-profit called Center Maryland, gives O’Malley a 47-41 lead over Ehrlich, and also gives O’Malley a respectable 49/39 approval.

    MI-Gov: Tough nerd and GOP gubernatorial nominee Rick Snyder picked a running mate: state Rep. Brian Calley, a 33-year-old who helps Snyder fill his political-inexperience and social-conservative gaps. One wrinkle: Calley was already the GOP nominee for a state Senate seat, so it’s unclear how filling that vacancy will now play out. Dem nominee Virg Bernero will also need to pick a running mate ahead of this weekend’s nominating convention.

    NY-St. Sen.: Campaign ads in local newspapers in state Senate races are usually a little too down in the weeds for even SSP, but take a look at this amazingly thorough anti-Greg Ball demolition derby run by a group called “Republicans for Truth” as we approach the GOP primary in open SD-40 in New York. Remember, Ball is the wacko we could have been running against in NY-19 if Nan Hayworth hadn’t priced him out.

    Ads: We’re awash in new ads today (as I’m sure we will be every day until November), with the biggest-ticket one seeming to be a new anti-Joe Sestak ad in PA-Sen from Rove front-group American Crossroads. The even more mysterious Americans for Job Security are also wading into MO-Sen, launching an anti-Robin Carnahan radio ad. TV spots are also up in various House races: in FL-22 for Allen West, in KY-06 for Andy Barr, in TX-17 for Bill Flores, and in AZ-08 for Gabby Giffords. NWOTSOTB, in all cases.

    Blogosphere: Congratulations to friend-of-the-site Nate Silver, whose little blog called 538.com has completed its ascendancy, getting relaunched today as part of the New York Times’ online operations.

    History: New Orleans has a particularly fascinating and byzantine political history; with the LA-02 primary fast approaching, here’s an interesting long article on the rise (and potential decline) of African-American political power in the Big Easy.

    Rasmussen:

    CA-Sen: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 44%, Carly Fiorina (R) 43%

    IL-Sen: Alexi Giannoulias (D) 42%, Mark Kirk (R) 40%

    OR-Sen: Ron Wyden (D-inc) 56%, Jim Huffman (R) 36%

    WI-Sen: Russ Feingold (D-inc) 46%, Ron Johnson (R) 47%

    WI-Sen: Russ Feingold (D-inc) 47%, David Westlake (R) 40%

    OR-Gov, OR-Sen: Small Lead for Dudley

    SurveyUSA for KATU-TV (7/25-27, likely voters, 6/7-9 in parentheses):

    John Kitzhaber (D): 44 (40)

    Chris Dudley (R): 46 (47)

    Other: 7 (6)

    Undecided: 4 (7)

    Ron Wyden (D-inc): 53 (51)

    Jim Huffman (R): 35 (38)

    Other: 9 (6)

    Undecided: 3 (5)

    (MoE: ±4.2%)

    SurveyUSA is out with another poll of the Governor and Senate races in Oregon; the last one seemed very outlier-ish at the time, but with subsequent polls from a variety of pollsters all pointing to a tie or slight Dudley lead, this is very much in line with everyone else. (Rasmussen, for instance, just saw the Governor’s race at 47-44 for Dudley and the Senate race at 51-35 for Wyden, eerily similar.) Another thing that leads me to be afraid this is close to the mark: the frequent SurveyUSA quirk with young voters isn’t present here. The 18-34 set loves Kitzhaber, giving him a 51-39 edge; Dudley’s lead is built on senior citizens.

    Still, much of Kitzhaber’s problem is that he hasn’t bothered going on the air yet, partly because he anticipates being outspent and needs to conserve his resources, partly because (as I’ve belabored before) that he seems to be operating with the same ill-advised sage Zen-master sense of invincibility as Jerry Brown next door. If it’s not working as well for Kitz, it’s because Oregon isn’t quite as blue as California, with the GOP-leaning hinterlands making up a bigger percentage of the state. At any rate, he seems to be realizing he needs to get his name out there, and he’s out today with his first TV spot, a positive and job-o-centric ad.

    SSP Daily Digest: 7/29 (Afternoon Edition)

    CT-Sen: Now that was fast. Only days after his bizarre and probably hopeless parachuting back into the long-abandoned Connecticut Senate race, Rob Simmons just got the primary endorsement from the state’s largest newspaper, the Hartford Courant. That’s a pretty clear indicator of how they feel about Linda McMahon. Meanwhile, out in Crazy Town, former presidential candidate Steve Forbes weighed in, giving an endorsement to Paulist economist Peter Schiff.

    KY-Sen: Rogue ophthalmologist Rand Paul is certainly a glass-half-full (or mountain-half-still-there?) kind of guy. He’s come out in favor of the environmentally destructive mountaintop removal method of coal mining, justifying it, true to form, with economics gobbledygook: “the land is of enhanced value, because now you can build on it.” In fact, it’s really just a branding problem: “I think they should name it something better.”

    WA-Sen: Here’s a rather unexpected endorsement: hard-right kingmaker Jim DeMint is coming out in favor of Dino Rossi, who was very much a moderate back when he ran for governor in 2004. I suppose Rossi taking the plunge as the first major Senate candidate to call for repeal of financial reform was enough for DeMint’s satisfaction. I still have to wonder why Rossi would seek out this kind of endorsement, as it’s certainly not going to help matters in the general election in this blue state; is he actually feeling enough heat from Sarah Palin-backed Clint Didier in the primary that he needs to go to the right-wing well?

    WI-Sen: If you’ve been following the Wisconsin Senate race, Ron Johnson has been vacillating all week on whether or not to sell his hundreds of thousands of dollars in BP stock and plow it into his campaign, move it into a blind trust, or just tape all his stock certificates together and use them to club baby seals. Now he’s just saying he’s going to sit on it and sell when market conditions are favorable — not because it’s the right thing to do, just because he wants a better profit on it.

    NH-Gov: PPP also has gubernatorial general election numbers are part of their New Hampshire sample. We’d been wondering if John Lynch, whose previous PPP numbers were kind of lukewarm, might be ready to sneak onto the list as Likely D, but today’s numbers seem to suggest otherwise. (In fact, the once-unassailable Mike Beebe may now be likelier to fill that role.) Lynch’s approvals are up to 52/36, and he leads his likeliest GOP opponent, ex-state HHS director John Stephen, 51-34. He also leads Jack Kimball 52-29, Karen Testerman 52-28, and Frank Emiro 48-28.

    NV-Gov: Rory Reid just got gifted some serious help in the Nevada governor’s race (and having seen him on the stump at Netroots Nation, he’s going to need all the help he can get…), via a gaffe from Brian Sandoval. Sandoval has denied previous allegations that he’d said on TV that his kids didn’t look Hispanic, but now Univision has dug up the tape. Perhaps even more troublesome for Sandoval: he said that in the context of his kids’ appearance being why he was not worried about his kids being racially profiled under Arizona’s new law.

    NY-Gov: Unfortunately, Carl Paladino has confirmed that no cat fud will be served in the general election in November (not that Andrew Cuomo, polling over 60%, needs any shenanigans to win). Paladino says he won’t puruse a third-party bid on the yet-to-be-named teabagger ballot line if he loses the GOP gubernatorial primary to newly-minted Islamophobe Rick Lazio.

    AZ-03: John McCain waded into the overstuffed GOP primary field in the race to replace retiring Rep. John Shadegg to flag a favorite. He’s backing state Sen. Jim Waring. McCain had his choice of endorsers to pay back (Waring, as well as Vernon Parker and Ben Quayle, are supporting McCain, while Sam Crump is the only out-and-proud J.D. Hayworth backer in the field).

    CA-47: While there’s nothing really newsworthy going on the 47th, Politico has a very interesting look below the surface at this forgotten race in a demographically-complex district. Both Loretta Sanchez and GOP challenger Van Tran seem aware that the Vietnamese minority in this low-turnout Hispanic-majority district is the district’s electoral linchpin.

    DE-AL: Michelle Rollins was supposed to be the moderate in the GOP field in Delaware, but the wealthy philanthropist seems to be going the full Sharron Angle. She joined the swelling Republican ranks of candidates saying that extending unemployment benefits just takes away people’s motivations to go out and get real jobs.

    FL-08: The main story here may be that Zogby, the pollster ubiquitous in 2004 and once though to be in the Dems’ pocket, is now reduced to doing internal polls for low-priority GOP House candidates? Anyway, they did a poll on behalf of attorney/talk show host Todd Long (the guy who almost successfully primaried Ric Keller in 2008). Long’s poll gives him a 46-38 lead over Rep. Alan Grayson. Of course, Long isn’t a likely bet to emerge from the primary (which he shares with ex-state Sen. Daniel Webster, state Rep. Kurt Kelly, and rich guy Bruce O’Donoghue), and there’s no mention of primary numbers.

    IN-03: If this were two years ago, an open seat in the 3rd (especially with 2006 candidate Tom Hayhurst on board) might have been a good pickup opportunity. Not so this year, apparently. GOP nominee state Sen. Marlin Stutzman is out with an internal from American Viewpoint giving him a 56-29 lead. Hayhurst has the financial advantage, though, and may be able to use that to make up at least some of that ground.

    KS-04: SurveyUSA has one last pre-primary look at the primary races in the 4th. There’s a lot of movement in the 4th, where businessman Wink Hartman seems to be rapidly deflating (as the carpetbagging issue may have gotten some traction) and moderate state Sen. Jean Schodorf is quickly gaining (as people realize the other candidates are all wackos). RNC committee member Mike Pompeo is still in the lead, though, at 31. Schodorf is at 24 (up 8) and Hartman at 21 (down 8), with 13 for Jim Anderson. On the Dem side, state Rep. Raj Goyle’s ad blitz seems to have had its desired effect, which was to raise his name rec and prevent him from getting VicRawl’d. (Ah, sweet memories of 2008.) Having trailed Some Dude Robert Tillman in the previous SUSA poll, Goyle now leads 63-19.

    KY-03: This race seemed to move onto the map (albeit just barely) with Republican Todd Lally having narrowly outraised Democratic Rep. John Yarmuth last quarter. Yarmuth seems to be acting quickly to squelch any sense that he’s in unusual trouble, though, rolling out an internal from Cooper & Secrest that gives him a 58-32 lead over Lally.

    OK-05: Everyone in the Beltway seems to be wondering a) what the heck went wrong with state Rep. Kevin Calvey, who was deemed frontrunner in the GOP primary in the 5th based on his Club for Growth and American Conservative Union backing, but finished second, and b) who the heck is James Lankford? The youth camp director and newbie to politics won thanks to grassroots mobilizing in the social conservative community. At any rate, this sets up a GOP runoff that’s similar to a number of others we’ve seen in southern states: a faceoff between the CfG and Mike Huckabee (a Lankford endorser) sub-wings of the right wing.

    DCCC: Here’s an interesting piece from National Journal that runs the DCCC’s list of 60-some districts for ad buys through some demographic sifting. It’s based on “quadrants” developed by Ronald Brownstein (which are pretty simple, really, just education and racial diversity — we’ve been working behind the scenes here at SSP on something similar but more sophisticated, which hopefully will see the light someday soon). As you might expect, most of the vulnerable seats, and the DCCC’s ad buys are in the low-education, low-diversity (i.e. mostly white) districts, which is where Obama tended to perform the weakest in 2008.

    Rasmussen:

    IL-Gov: Pat Quinn (D-inc) 37%, Bill Brady (R) 44%

    MO-Sen: Robin Carnahan (D) 43%, Roy Blunt (R) 49%

    OR-Sen: Ron Wyden (D-inc) 51%, Jim Huffman (R) 35%

    WI-Sen: Russ Feingold (D-inc) 46%, Ron Johnson (R) 48%

    On the Rasmussen front, it’s also worth checking out Chris Bowers‘ latest Senate projections at Open Left. He ran separate Rasmussen-free and Rasmussen-included versions, and the difference is remarkable.

    SSP Daily Digest: 7/15 (Afternoon Edition)

    CT-Sen: Rob Simmons may not be as revved up about jumping back into the GOP Senate primary as was reported last night (i.e. “I’m thinking about it.”). His former campaign manager told The Fix today that there’s no secret comeback bid and that “he has no plans to re-engage.” It’s probably wiser for Simmons to take that approach, to lay low and wait for the off chance that Linda McMahon implodes pre-primary, rather than drain himself in an uphill fight against her.

    KS-Sen: I don’t know what spooked Jerry Moran into coughing up another internal poll (I can’t imagine it was the backstabbing by Tom Tancredo, but who knows?), but at any rate, he released a new internal from POS giving him a 56-24 lead over Todd Tiahrt in the GOP Senate primary. Moran also continues to win the fundraising race, raising $538K last quarter with $2.3 million CoH. Tiahrt raised $451K last quarter and has $1.3 million CoH, although he has a big fundraising dinner scheduled soon hosted by former Notre Dame football coach Charlie Weis.

    NV-Sen: This news has to be, on the balance, good news for Harry Reid. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, while certainly not considering endorsing Reid, is moving toward sitting out the Nevada Senate race. It may be tempting to pin this down with increasing Chamber discontent with the teabagger wing of the party (as seen with their moves in SC-Gov and ID-01), but a lot of it may be that they’re less unhappy with Reid as Majority Leader than the alternatives (Chuck Schumer or Dick Durbin). Reid‘s also reporting, unsurprisingly, tons of money: he raised $2.4 million, although, after spending a lot on ads, he’s at $9 million CoH.

    NY-Sen, NY-Sen-B, NY-Gov (pdf): Siena released polls everyone and everything in the Empire State today, although there’s little suspense in any of these races anymore. In the gubernatorial race, Andrew Cuomo beats Rick Lazio 60-28, beats Carl Paladino 64-23, and beats Lazio and Paladino (with Paladino on a 3rd party line) 54-23-10. Lazio beats Paladino in the GOP primary 40-20. In the Senate special election, Kirsten Gillibrand leads Bruce Blakeman 51-28, beats Joe DioGuardi 51-29, and beats David Malpass 50-27. DioGuardi leads the GOP primary at 24, with 7 for Blakeman and 5 for Malpass. And in the other Senate race, Chuck Schumer beats both Gary Berntsen and Jay Townsend by an identical 63-26. Townsend tops Berntsen in the GOP primary 24-13. They even throw in the Comptroller’s race, where Dem incumbent Tom DiNapoli beats self-funded GOPer Harry Wilson 48-24.

    SC-Sen: The Charleston minor league baseball team has answered Alvin Greene’s call for economic stimulus in the form of Alvin Greene action figures: they’ll be giving out Greene figurines as a promotion at their Saturday game. (Although it sounds a little half-assed, as they’re just sticking Alvin Greene heads on unused Statues of Liberty.) Also, with the primary out of the way, local and Beltway Democrats alike are uniting behind Greene, filling his coffers with… um… $1,000? (At least that puts him ahead of Roland Burris.) That number was apparently volunteered by Greene; he won’t have to file with the FEC until he hits the $5,000 mark.

    WV-Sen: Plans are already afoot in Washington to swear in West Virginia’s new Senator by Tuesday so that the unemployment benefits extension can be voted on that same day. Who, though, is still an open question. Other Senator Jay Rockefeller says there’s some White House pressure and he thinks he knows who it’ll be, but he isn’t saying who. Ex-Gov. and current College Board President Gaston Caperton has suddenly reversed course and is now saying that he is interested, which certainly seems like a tea leaf to me. There are also reports that Bob Wise and Larry Puccio have removed themselves from consideration, and Nick Casey (awaiting a federal judgeship) is very unlikely.

    The NRSC is already running anti-Joe Manchin ads (in print media only), but that may not provide that much encouragement to Shelly Moore Capito (the only Republican who can make this competitive) to get in: one little-noted fact is that one item that rather pointedly got left off the agenda for today’s legislative special session is whether or not an officeholder could run for two seats at the same time in the special election and the regularly-scheduled election (like in, oh let’s just say, WV-Sen and WV-02).  

    CO-Gov: Scott McInnis may be the last to know to know that he’s dropping out of the gubernatorial race. Tom Tancredo has been telling people that McInnis is going to drop out, although the McInnis camp is denying that, saying “we’re moving forward.” Tancredo is also the first state GOPer to publicly call for McInnis to get out, although I wonder if Tancredo is hoping he may get the chance to take his place (remember Tancredo had flirted with the race early last year). Tancredo doesn’t seem to be on the list of replacements that’s being bandied about by the local press, though: they include Josh Penry (whom Tancredo had backed, and who ran for a while before dropping out), former state Sen. Mark Hillman, and… get this… ex-Rep. Bob Schaffer, who badly lost the 2008 Senate race.

    There’s also some speculation about the legalities of replacing McInnis: it doesn’t seem like the GOP could insert a hand-picked filler before the primary, unless both McInnis and Dan Maes dropped out (not out of the question, I suppose, considering that Maes’ campaign is currently belly-up). This may help McInnis’s decision along: the RGA is now saying that they’re abandoning him, pulling out of fundraisers they’d previously scheduled.

    GA-Gov: Mason-Dixon takes a look at the Georgia gubernatorial primaries. On the Republican side, they find John Oxendine at 31, Karen Handel at 23, Nathan Deal at 18, and Eric Johnson at 6. Compare that with Rasmussen (see below) and Magellan’s recent polls, which see possible Handel/Deal runoffs. Ed Kilgore also takes a look at the proxy war being fought in Georgia by Sarah Palin (backing Handel) and Newt Gingrich (backing Deal), which may be boosting those two’s fortunes at Oxendine’s expense. Mason-Dixon’s look at the Dem primary has comparatively less drama: Roy Barnes is out of runoff territory at 54, with Thurbert Baker at 20, David Poythress at 7, and Dubose Porter at 3.

    AZ-08: The Fix seems to be the leaking place of choice for the GOP for its internal polls, and they have word of another one with a GOPer with a (slight) lead. It’s in the 8th, where a Tarrance Group poll gives Jonathan Paton a 45-44 lead over Gabrielle Giffords. Paton, of course, still has to survive a primary against the more tea-flavored Jesse Kelly.

    KS-04: SurveyUSA’s new poll of the KS-04 primaries shows some interesting movement on the GOP side: both Mike Pompeo and Wink Hartman have declined by similar amounts (they’re currently at 32 and 31, respectively), with state Sen. Jean Schodorf making a late move up to 16, based on strength among women and moderates. Jim Anderson’s also at 9. There’s also a surprise on the Dem side: the DCCC-touted Raj Goyle is actually in danger of losing his primary to Some Dude, Robert Tillman. Tillman now leads, 40-36. Looks like we may have been right about Goyle’s reasons behind launching a TV buy now.

    House: We don’t usually like to link to this sort of meta about the state of the House, but it’s interesting to see the various blind men who are veterans of the DCCC and the NRCC in relatively close agreement about the size and shape of the elephant this year.

    Fundraising: AR-Sen | CA-Sen| CA-Sen | CT-Sen | DE-Sen | FL-Sen | IL-Sen | IN-Sen | MO-Sen | NH-Sen | OR-Sen | WI-Sen | IL-Gov | TX-Gov | CT-04 | DE-AL | FL-08 | GA-02 | NH-01 | OH-13 | PA-03 | PA-10 | RI-01 | WA-03

    Rasmussen:

    CA-Gov: Jerry Brown (D) 46%, Meg Whitman (R) 47%

    GA-Gov (R): Nathan Deal (R) 25%, Karen Handel (R) 25%, John Oxendine (R) 20%, Eric Johnson (R) 13%

    TX-Gov: Bill White (D) 41%, Rick Perry (R-inc) 50%

    WI-Sen: Russ Feingold (D-inc) 46%, Ron Johnson (R) 47%

    WI-Sen: Russ Feingold (D-inc) 51%, Dave Westlake (R) 37%