Tag: Roy Blunt

• MO-Sen: After last week announcing that she was “in no hurry” to begin her campaign for the GOP nomination in the Missouri senate race, former treasurer Sarah Steeleman has done an about-face and is setting up her exploratory committee right away. Apparently she’s striking while the iron is hot (i.e. while everyone is suddenly second-guessing Roy Blunt). She’s enlisting Ben Ginsberg, GOP beltway power-broker and fixer extraordinaire, to help. (H/t ccharles000.)

• CO-Sen: Ken Buck, the Weld County District Attorney and an immigration hard-liner, has, as expected, formally announced his candidacy for the Colorado senate seat held by appointee Michael Bennet. He’ll face Aurora city councilor Ryan Frazier, and possibly ex-Rep. Bob Beauprez, in the GOP primary.

• NV-Sen: As the GOP searches for a dark-horse opponent to Harry Reid, they could go two routes: go with an underfunded conservative activist who can mobilize the boots on the ground (see Sharron Angle), or go with some self-funding rich guy nobody’s heard of who can saturate the race with money. The latter option has materialized, in the form of Wall Street investment banker John Chachas, who’s been meeting with party leaders. There are two slight problems: one, the nation’s ire toward all things Wall Street, and two, that Chachas is a New York resident who hasn’t lived in Nevada since high school.

• MN-Sen: Even polite, stoic Minnesotans have only a finite amount of patience. A new Star-Tribune poll finds that 64% think Norm Coleman should concede right now, and only 28% consider his appeal to the Minnesota Supreme Court “appropriate.” 73% think he should pack it in if he loses in front of the state supreme court.

• NY-Sen: Kirsten Gillibrand has her first official primary opponent. It’s not Steve Israel, it’s not Carolyn Maloney… it’s Scott Noren, an oral surgeon and “fiscally conservative” Dem from Ithaca who’s urging supporters to “donate modestly.” Uh huh. Good luck with that.

• Pennsylvania: Pennsylvania Democratic chair T.J. Rooney has a simple goal: to “come together as a party” and have no primary fights in 2010. Uh huh. Good luck with that.

• TX-Gov, TX-AG: Former Travis County DA Ronnie Earle (otherwise known as the guy who secured the indictment of Tom DeLay) tells the Austin American-Statesman that he is considering a statewide run, for either governor or attorney general. (J)

• WA-03: A Republican candidate against Rep. Brian Baird has already announced: financial advisor David Castillo. He’s never held elective office, but was a deputy assistant secretary at the Bush administration VA, and ran state senator Don Benton’s 1998 campaign against Baird. This district’s PVI is ‘even,’ and Baird routinely wins with over 60%. (UPDATE: Uh huh. Good luck with that.)

• WA-08: One question that’s been on the lips of the blogosphere lately is: where in the world is Darcy Burner? It’s been tweeted about for a while but now it’s been made official: she’s going to DC to be executive director of the American Progressive Caucus Policy Foundation (the ideas arm of the Congressional Progressive Caucus). With fellow MSFT vet Suzan DelBene in the 2010 race already, this seems to indicate Burner won’t be making a third attempt at WA-08.

• NY-20 (pdf): The BoE’s official tally bumps Scott Murphy’s lead up to 365, as 250 more ballots, mostly from Murphy stronghold Warren County, were added. Counting will continue for the forseeable future, unfortunately, and on Monday a judge will set a counting schedule for the ballots contested on the basis of second home residency.

The drip-drip of GOPers publicly throwing in the towel on NY-20 continues: today star strategist Mike Murphy cried uncle, as did former NRCC chair Tom Reynolds yesterday. Campaign Diaries has a thought-provoking piece on why the GOP continues to drag this out in the courts, even though they’re in too deep a hole for “case by case” examination of the ballots to salvage the count for them: it may be to set precedent for future recounts, where picking off individual ballots may be targeted to their advantage.

• NY-Sen, NY-14: Rep. Carolyn Maloney has hired a statewide finance director, Lewis Cohen. Cohen denied that Maloney (who has been rumored to be interested in a primary challenge to Kirsten Gillibrand) will be running for Senate, but his title of “statewide” is pretty telling, considering that Maloney currently represents a few square miles in Manhattan and Queens.

• PA-Sen: Only eight weeks before jumping into the Senate primary, Pat Toomey told Pennsylvania GOP chair Rob Gleason that he “didn’t want to be a Senator” and “be number 100 and vote no on everything.” Now this wouldn’t exactly be the first time a politician has promised one thing and done another, but the Specter camp has begun beating Toomey over the head with his flip-flop.

• MO-Sen: Ex-treasurer Sarah Steelman is “moving in [the] direction” of entering the GOP senate primary, but is in no hurry to make a formal announcement as she gets her campaign’s financial house in order first. (She’s still paying off debts from her unsuccessful gubernatorial run last year.) This comes against a backdrop of increasing public discomfort by the party concerning Roy Blunt’s candidacy, caused not only by his humdrum $542K fundraising quarter and his high burn rate, but also his lobbyist ties and long ‘establishment’ track record.

• GA-Gov, GA-03: With top candidates like Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle and Cobb Co. Commissioner Sam Olens bailing on the race, there’s an opening for a top-tier candidate to leap into the GOP field for the Georgia governor’s race. (SoS Karen Handel and Insurance Comm. John Oxendine are still in.) Could Rep. Lynn Westmoreland, who has occasionally expressed interest in this race, be the man? Westmoreland (perhaps best known for not being able to name the 10 commandments on the Colbert Report) is “seriously considering” it. Don’t look for a pickup of his R+19 seat if it’s open, though.

• AL-Gov: Republican treasurer Kay Ivey will be running for governor after all, according to party insiders. The perception was that her role in Alabama’s floundering prepaid tuition plan may have wounded her too much to run for governor, but she’s still going for it.

• CA-32: More endorsements as we approach the May 19 special election. Board of Equalization chair Judy Chu got the endorsement of Los Angeles mayor Antonio Villaraigosa. (The district doesn’t include any of LA, but obviously he’s a big figure in the media market.) The United Farm Workers and the locals of the Southern California District Council of Laborers went for state senator Gil Cedillo.

• FL-08: Republican Orlando mayor Rich Crotty was looking like a major threat to just-elected Rep. Alan Grayson, but he’s getting tarnished with some legal troubles that may preclude him from running. A grand jury accused him of pressuring vendors to contribute to his re-election campaign. There’s still a deep Republican bench eyeing the race in this R+2 district, including state senate majority whip Andy Gardiner, ex-state senator Daniel Webster, and state rep. Steve Precourt. Grayson raised only $144K in the first quarter, but he may plan to self-finance, as he partially did in 2008.

• Demographics: Here’s some interesting data from the Census Bureau: fewer people moved in 2007 (35.2 million) than any year since 1962 (when the nation had 120 million fewer people). This has its roots in the housing bubble pop, as people underwater in their houses are unlikelier to relocate for work. This may show up in a big way in 2012 reapportionment, though, as more people staying in place may save a few seats in the northeast or midwest and limit growth in the south or west.

• NY-20 (pdf): There’s light at the end of the tunnel in the NY-20 count, and as we get closer, Scott Murphy’s numbers keep going up. This morning’s BoE tally gives him a lead of 167, following the addition of more votes from Columbia, Dutchess, and Warren Counties (all of which Murphy won on Election Day).

Apparently all Saratoga County votes are accounted for, except for 700 challenged ballots, which, thanks to yesterday’s court ruling, will be counted. (While Saratoga County in general is Jim Tedisco’s turf, the Tedisco camp’s heavy use of challenges of student votes suggests that these votes may include a lot of votes from artsy Skidmore College in Saratoga Springs, which one would expect to lean Democratic.)

• CO-Sen: Finally, a GOPer commits to the Colorado senate race against appointee Michael Bennet. It’s Aurora city councilor Ryan Frazier, who made his announcement while teabagging in Grand Junction. Frazier is 31 and African-American, so he brings an interesting backstory to the race, but it’s unclear whether his strength among conservative activists can overcome his otherwise low profile in the GOP primary (assuming anyone else bothers to show up).

• FL-Sen: Quinnipiac takes another look at the Florida senate race; not much has changed since last time, although one noteworthy finding is that Floridians would prefer to see Charlie Crist remain as governor rather than jump to senate, by a 42-26 margin. That doesn’t stop him from crushing in the senate primary (Crist beats Marco Rubio and Vern Buchanan 54-8-8). Buchanan leads a Crist-free primary, while on the Dem side, Kendrick Meek narrowly leads Pam Iorio (16-15, with 8 for Ron Klein, 5 from Dan Gelber, and a whole lotta undecideds).

• PA-Sen: John Peterson isn’t a make-or-break endorsement, but the former GOP representative from rural PA-05 said that he won’t support Arlen Specter’s re-election bid in 2010. He stopped short of endorsing Pat Toomey (Peterson supported Specter in the 2004 primary), but said it was time for Specter to retire. In other completely unsurprising endorsement news, the Club for Growth (of which Pat Toomey was president until several days ago) today endorsed Toomey’s bid. Laugh all you want, but Toomey will need all the financial help he can get; Specter hauled in $1.3 million in Q1 and is sitting on $6.7 million CoH.

• TX-Sen: Our friends at Burnt Orange Report have a nice graph showing Bill White and John Sharp dominating the fundraising chase so far in the hypothetical Texas senate race. (The chart doesn’t include GOP heavyweights Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst and AG Greg Abbott, who haven’t taken formal steps for the race, but whose cash stashes are state-specific, putting them back to fundraising square one if they ran for senate.)

• CT-Sen: If Chris Dodd is going to win again in 2010, it’s going to be on the back of money, not popularity. Luckily, he still has lots of the former, as big-money donors aren’t being scared off by his poll numbers: he raised $1 million in the first quarter, with $1.4 million CoH.

• MN-Sen (pdf): Minnesotans would like the madness to stop, and would like to have a 2nd senator. PPP finds that 63% think that Norm Coleman should concede right now, and 59% (including 54% of independents) think Tim Pawlenty should sign Al Franken’s certificate of election right now. (This should give Pawlenty some pause as to whether or not to create further delay in the name of partisan politics, as he’s about the only person left who can drag this out.)

• MO-Sen: Roy Blunt raised $542K in the first quarter, only about half of what Robin Carnahan raised. Our JeremiahTheMessiah came up with the best possible headline for this story:

Carnahan Smokes Blunt… In Fundraising

• GA-Gov: As reported in the diaries yesterday by fitchfan28, Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle dropped out of the gubernatorial race, citing health concerns. Cagle was more-or-less front-runner, and his departure leaves SoS Karen Handel and Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine to slug it out for the GOP.

• IL-10, PA-07: Two huge fundraising hauls (by House standards) from two candidates who may be looking to move up. Mark Kirk, who pulled in $696K in the first quarter, is supposed to decide soon whether or not to try for IL-Sen. (He has only $597K CoH, though, after burning through all his cash defending his seat in 2008. So he may just be raising hard in expectation of another top-tier challenge in 2010 in this blue district.)

Joe Sestak raised $550K in the first quarter, leaving him sitting on a mongo $3.3 million. Could this… plus his suddenly increased media presence, as he talks the defense budget and Don’t Ask Don’t Tell… be tea leaves that he may be the Dem who jumps into PA-Sen after all? (Sestak has previously declined, and he’s always been mentioned as an afterthought in this race after Allyson Schwartz and Patrick Murphy. But neither of them have made any moves, leaving Joe Torsella the only Dem challenger so far.)

• Numbers: California’s Secretary of State office finally released its Supplement to the Statement of Vote, heaven for nerds. Now you can look up Presidential and Prop 8 votes not just by congressional district, but by state senate or assembly district or even Board of Equalization district.

Wilson Research Strategies (R) (3/7-9, likely voters, no trendlines):

Robin Carnahan (D): 47

Roy Blunt (R): 44

Robin Carnahan (D): 47

Sarah Steelman (R): 39

(MoE: 4%)

Even a Republican internal poll can’t spin away the advantage that Missouri Secretary of State (and daughter of the former governor) Robin Carnahan seems to have in the race to fill Kit Bond’s open seat. Carnahan leads Rep. Roy Blunt by 3, and less-known ex-treasurer Sarah Steelman by 8. (The poll indicates 97% name ID for Blunt and 75% for Steelman.)

The poll has an interesting backstory; it was taken as a feasibility study for the Steelman campaign, but paid for by an unidentified third party unaffiliated with Steelman. While I would assume the poll therefore also polled a Blunt/Steelman primary, those numbers aren’t released (I would assume they showed Blunt winning by a wide margin).

What the poll does release is interesting, though: Blunt’s negatives among “soft” Democrats are high (25 favorable/50 unfavorable), while they tolerate Steelman (39/13). And when voters are read a paragraph describing Blunt’s support for earmarks and his relationship with Jack Abramoff, the “informed voter” ballot in the general turns into Carnahan 55, Blunt 30. Clearly the Steelman camp is testing what messages will be effective in the primary, but she may wind up doing a great job of softening Blunt up for the general (much as she did to Kenny Hulshof in last year’s gubernatorial race).

Missouri Treasurer Sarah Steelman declares open season on white guys in suits, and that means you, Fat E. Bluntz Rep. Roy Blunt:

“I’m in the process of laying the groundwork that I need to get done before making an official announcement,” Steelman told POLITICO. “I’m definitely strongly leaning towards doing this.”

Her expected entrance in the campaign increases the likelihood of a divisive primary, which Blunt had been trying to avoid.

In the interview, Steelman took some sharp jabs at Blunt, describing the seven-term congressman Blunt as being part of the “old-boys’ network” who has spent too much time in Washington.

“Roy Blunt is another white guy in a suit, and I think the public wants change,” Steelman said. “There’s a good old boys’ network out there that’s hard to penetrate… and it’s not always in the best interest of the party or for conservative principles.”

Hoo boy. Can Steelman succeed in mucking up two statewide primaries in a row for the GOP? Granted, I fully realize that Hulshof was probably doomed anyway last year, but she sure didn’t make things any easier for Kenny Boy.

This one could be pretty fun to watch.

PPP (1/10-11, registered voters):

Robin Carnahan (D): 45

Roy Blunt (R): 44

Robin Carnahan (D): 47

Jim Talent (R): 43

Robin Carnahan (D): 47

Sarah Steelman (R): 36

(MoE: ±3.3%)

As we suspected, Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan is more or less the front-runner for the open seat left behind by Kit Bond’s retirement. At the same time, it’s not currently a cakewalk for her, as Rep. Roy Blunt and ex-Sen. Jim Talent poll within close striking distance of her.

I’ll admit I’m surprised to see Blunt so close to Carnahan and in fact doing better than Talent, considering that Blunt, at least in his House leadership role, seemed like an unlikable, polarizing figure (and add to that the fact that Talent has run statewide a number of times, while Blunt may not be that well known outside MO-07). That’s just not my gut talking; PPP finds that Blunt is the only one of the four candidates with greater unfavorables than favorables (he’s at 40/43, while Carnahan is at 45/36 and Talent is at 45/39.

PPP has a good explanation, though. Their crosstabs suggest that Blunt has a large bipartisan core of support in his conservative southwestern House district, and some of that support includes a fair number of Democrats in his district who apparently would support Carnahan in a Carnahan/Talent matchup.

Sure, Tom Cole may be somber, but that doesn’t mean that he isn’t delusional:

“Clearly, we have got problems that are deep and serious in terms of how we are going to do in the fall elections,” Cole said.  “Having said that… we haven’t lost as a party because of the ideological agenda on the other side. The obvious challenge we face is we had somebody running as a Republican, pro-life, pro-gun, who wants to cut taxes, wants to control spending. That’s not particularly in step with where the Democratic majority is. So, that is going to create some opportunities for us. I think those issues clarify and reinforce [our agenda].”

Roy Blunt joins in on the insanity:

GOP Whip Roy Blunt downplayed the GOP’s problems, saying that “six months ago, Rudy Giuliani was the front runner in the Republican contest and Barack Obama did not have a chance.”

Blunt said that Democrats won in Mississippi and Louisiana by running “on what the GOP is for.”

“So we know now that the message works,” he said. “So we have to be sure that nationally, we connect the message with the Republican Party, rather than the other party.”

I understand the art of spin, but did these clowns not watch the election that just unfolded?  Sure, Childers embraced conservative social values that made him a good fit with his Northern Mississippi district.  But he also ran as an unabashed economic populist, and launched scathing attacks against Greg Davis for yukking it up with Dick Cheney.

On oil:

“We need to strip away the subsidies from ExxonMobil and Big Oil,” Childers said to a question about high gasoline prices. “They’re not going to get a lot of sympathy from me.”

On healthcare:

Travis Childers will fight to improve the quality of healthcare, while lowering costs for working families.  He supports expanding the State Children’s Health Insurance Program (S-CHIP), which will provide affordable healthcare to tens of thousands of middle-income children in Mississippi.

On the economy and corporate trade deals:

Our leaders should have been thinking of the economic problems we face today when they passed unfair trade deals that sent our jobs overseas, gave billions in subsidies to big oil companies, ignored the home mortgage crisis, and kept spending as the deficit and national debt hit all time highs.

On Iraq, Childers was the only candidate who favored withdrawal:

He was the only one of five candidates — three Republicans, two Democrats — at a campaign stop in Nesbit last week who said point-blank that U.S. troops don’t belong in Iraq. […]

Childers said he favors coming up with a plan to withdraw troops over 12 to 18 months and leave the Iraqis to fight among themselves, as they have for thousands of years.

He said he’s amazed more people on the campaign trail haven’t asked about a national debt of more than $9 trillion.

“We’re spending our money, folks, in Iraq. We need to be spending our money in America.

If all that is what morons like Tom Cole and Roy Blunt consider a “Republican platform”, then maybe their party isn’t doomed to the electoral dustbin after all.

However, we all know that that is pretty damn far from the truth.

Keep dreaming, GOP.