VA-Gov: Deeds Takes Big Lead in PPP’s Final Poll

Public Policy Polling is going to release their final VA-Gov survey very shortly. Tom Jensen teased us with this:

Looks like a tight race in Virginia… for second place. The undecideds seem to almost all be moving in the same direction.

I’m not going to call the race like I did the Saturday before the election for Kay Hagan based on early returns from our final poll because preferences in this race have been so fluid. But it doesn’t look like things are going to be as close on Tuesday as the polling in the last week suggested.

What do you think the numbers will look like? For reference, their prior numbers are here. We’ll post the results just as soon as PPP makes them available.

UPDATE (James): It’s out.

Public Policy Polling (6/6-7, likely voters, 5/28-31 in parens):

Creigh Deeds (D): 40 (27)

Terry McAuliffe (D): 26 (24)

Brian Moran (D): 24 (22)

Undecided: 10 (26)

(MoE: ±3.0%)

Wow. What a huge movement for Creigh Deeds in just a few short weeks. Remember, Deeds was lagging at 14% in PPP’s 5/1-3 poll, but a well-timed endorsement from the Washington Post was clearly the catalyst for Deeds’ remarkable surge — and probably also a sign that a sizable share of Moran and McAuliffe’s support was pretty soft in the first place. Indeed, in the vote-rich DC burbs in Northern Virginia, where Deeds has been almost a non-factor for much of the race, Deeds has now pulled ahead of Moran by a 38-35 margin, with 20% going to McAuliffe.

And speaking of McAuliffe, take a look at his horrid favorability rating; among Democratic primary voters, just as many voters have a favorable opinion of the ex-DNC chair as those who dislike him (40%-40%). That’s pretty brutal. If Deeds can hold onto his lead on Tuesday, we may be dodging a major bullet here.

Of course, the usual caveats apply: Pegging the primary voter universe is a notoriously tough business (especially in an ultra-low turnout state like Virginia), and the ground game will be key on Tuesday. For now, though, the momentum is clearly at the back of Deeds.

VA-Gov: Deeds Keeps Climbing in New SUSA Survey (Updated)

SurveyUSA (5/31-6/2, likely voters, mid-May in parens):

Terry McAuliffe (D): 35 (37)

Brian Moran (D): 26 (22)

Creigh Deeds (D): 29 (26)

Other/Undecided: 11 (14)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Cap’n, will you have a look a’ that!

Deeds was also the only candidate of the three to improve in head-to-heads against Bob McDonnell – in the last poll, he trailed 46-40, but is now just a point back at 44-43. McAuliffe and Moran both treaded water. The primary is this coming Tuesday, June 9th. Once again, SSP will be here to liveblog the results.

UPDATE (James): Suffolk has released a poll this morning showing Deeds with 29% to McAuliffe’s 26%, with Moran at 23%. And with that, Deeds takes the lead in’s graph.

SSP Daily Digest: 6/3

MN-Sen: Despite the seemingly increased likelihood that he’d jerk Al Franken around now that he doesn’t have to worry about re-election and how impatient Minnesotans feel about the Senate vacancy, Gov. Tim Pawlenty says he’ll certify Al Franken as winner of the Senate race if the state Supreme Court directs him to do so. Also, many are interpreting John Cornyn‘s comments about how the Senate GOP doesn’t have the votes to filibuster Sonia Sotomayor, even if they wanted to, as being a tacit admission that Franken would be seated soon.

NC-Sen: It never quite seemed likely, but Elizabeth Edwards silenced any speculation that she might run for Senate against Richard Burr next year.

KY-Sen: Here’s a new name sniffing out the Kentucky Senate primary. A staffer for Rep. Ed Whitfield from KY-01 just bought both domain names for “” and “” (and inexplicably paid $800 for the two names). Maybe SoS Trey Grayson may have some company in the primary if Jim Bunning truly does bail out?

VA-Gov: Ex-Del. Brian Moran leaked an internal poll from Greenberg Quinlan Rosner to Political Wire. Lo and behold, it shows Moran in the lead, with 29% to 27% for Creigh Deeds and 26% for Terry McAuliffe. (Meaning that in the last week, each of the three primary candidates have led a poll.) (UPDATE: PPP points out a flaw here: this isn’t a topline, but the result from a subsample that’s disposed to do well for Moran: people who’ve participated in Democratic primaries prior to last year’s presidential race.)

Fundraising numbers for the three candidates also just came out: McAuliffe is way ahead on the money front, with $1.8 mil raised last quarter and $1.3 mil CoH ($7 mil total). Deeds raised $676K with $521K CoH ($3.8 mil total), and Moran raised $844K with $700 CoH ($4.8 mil total).

MN-Gov: With T-Paw getting out, a flood of second-tier Republicans has spilled out in search of the nomination. State Sen. David Hann, state Sen. Geoff Michel, state Rep. Marty Seifert, state Rep. Paul Kohls, and former legislator Charlie Weaver are “interested.” Former Auditor Pat Anderson is going so far as to say she’ll announce in a month or two. Others mentioned include state Rep. Laura Brod, national committee member Brian Sullivan, and former state House speaker and current Labor and Industry Commissioner Steve Sviggum. The Star-Tribune also mentioned former Rep. Jim Ramstad (who’d do well in the general but may be too moderate to survive the nominating convention), state Sen. minority leader David Senjem, and one very big wild card… Norm Coleman, although his dragging-out of the Senate race can’t have helped his favorables. One prominent name who apparently isn’t interested: Rep. Michele Bachmann.

MI-Gov: The Republican field in the Michigan governor’s race got even more crowded, as Oakland Co. Sheriff Rick Bouchard got in. (Bouchard lost the 2006 Senate race to Debbie Stabenow.) Bouchard’s entry was faciliated when his boss, Oakland Co. Exec L. Brooks Patterson, declined to run — but Bouchard may do exactly what Patterson would have done, which is split the Detroit suburban vote with AG Mike Cox, making it easier for Rep. Pete Hoekstra from the state’s west to sneak through.

CO-04: Ex-Rep. Marilyn Musgrave fired off a rather unhinged-sounding fundraising letter on behalf of her new employers in the culture war, the anti-abortion Susan B. Anthony List. This may actually work to Rep. Betsy Markey’s advantage; she made reference to Musgrave’s letter in her own appeal for contributions.

FL-17: Politics1 has an interesting, if a bit unsavory, rumor coming out of south Florida: 83-year-old former Rep. Carrie Meek may get on the ballot in FL-17, essentially to act as a one-term placeholder for her son, Rep. Kendrick Meek. (If he lost the Senate race, she would re-retire in 2012 and thus let him get his old job back. Or, if Meek won the Senate race, she’d still retire and let someone new take over FL-17.) Meek denied the rumor, though, to National Journal.

FL-25: Here’s a potentially big name to take on Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, who beat Joe Garcia by a small margin in 2008. Miami Mayor Manny Diaz is reportedly taking a look at the race; his name has also been mentioned in connection with the open Lt. Gov. slot.

NC-11: PPP’s Tom Jensen looks at possible Democratic successors in this R+6 district if Rep. Heath Shuler gives up the seat to run for Senate. He cites state Sens. John Snow and Joe Sam Queen as likeliest. (He also links to a great map from Civitas that calculates the PVI for all of North Carolina’s state Senate districts.)

SC-01: Rep. Henry Brown threw a “thank you” party in Myrtle Beach for his supporters, and at least 11 people walked away with the best possible tokens of his gratitude: diarrhea and nausea. State health officials are investigating to see if it was the result of food poisoning or just of the Republican rhetoric. Also, 2008 challenger Linda Ketner, who came close to knocking off Brown as an openly lesbian candidate in a dark-red district, may not be looking to run again. She did a refreshingly honest interview with FireDogLake, maybe a little too refreshing vis-a-vis her future viability, in terms of referring to “the conservative, religious crazy vote” and outing several prominent South Carolina politicians.

UT-LG: A third generation of Romneys is getting warmed up (in a third state). Mitt Romney’s 33-year-old son Josh has been in talks with soon-to-be-Gov. Gary Herbert about the open Lieutenant Governor’s position.

AL-St. Senate: Democrats can still be a downballot force in Alabama, managing to hold a state Senate seat in a deep-red part of rural Alabama north of Mobile. State Rep. Mark Keahey (who’s only 28) narrowly defeated Republican former state Rep. Greg Albritton, in a special election triggered by the January death of Democratic Sen. Pat Lindsey. (UPDATE: Actually, it turns out that the margin wasn’t so tight. Keahey crushed Albritton by a devastating 58-42 margin.)

NH-St. House: In another special election, Democrats held a state House seat based in Lebanon, New Hampshire, as fire captain Andy White beat Republican Randy Wagoner. It’s Democratic-leaning turf, but the GOP turned this into a proxy battle over gay marriage (White is a vote in favor of it), and out-of-district money enabled Wagoner to outspend White at least 4-to-1.

VA-Gov: Dem Primary PPP penultimate poll – Deeds leads


Creigh Deeds 27 (20)

Terry McAuliffe 24 (29)

Brian Moran 22 (20)

“Two major developments have shaped the movement in the race over the last week and a half. The first is Deeds’ endorsement by the Washington Post. He has gone from 11% in northern Virginian to 23%. With 30% of the primary electorate coming from that region that alone accounts for more than half of his jump from 20 to 27%.”

“The second is a decline in support for Terry McAuliffe in the areas where Brian Moran has run television ads attacking him. In the last survey McAuliffe was running at 33% in Hampton Roads and 34% in greater Richmond. He’s now declined to 25 and 23% respectively in those markets.”

“We’ve been saying for months this was anyone’s game and it’s more true now than ever,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “All three candidates have a perfectly reasonable chance of coming out on top next Tuesday.”

VA-Gov: McAuliffe in Charge

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (5/18-20, likely voters,  early April in parens):

Terry McAuliffe (D): 36 (19)

Brian Moran (D): 22 (24)

Creigh Deeds (D): 13 (16)

Undecided: 29 (41)

(MoE: 5%)

Public Policy Polling (PDF) (5/19-21, likely voters, early May in parens):

Terry McAuliffe (D): 29 (30)

Brian Moran (D): 20 (20)

Creigh Deeds (D): 20 (14)

Undecided: 31 (36)

(MoE: 3.9%)

Despite what you see here, PPP and R2K actually showed similar surges for McAuliffe – it’s just that PPP has polled more frequently. If you go back to their late March survey, the numbers are very similar to R2K’s. The biggest difference between the newest polls is that PPP, like SUSA, shows Deeds – who was just endorsed by the Washington Post – moving up, while R2K has him stagnating.

Even if Deeds does have positive momentum, will it be enough? The primary is just two weeks from today, and this is what all the recent polling looks like:

PPP suggests that McAuliffe is benefitting from the fact that neither Moran nor Deeds has been able to consolidate the support) of people who don’t like T-Mac (they split that group 40-35 in Moran’s favor). Time is running out for either man to break that logjam.

P.S. R2K also tested general election matchups, which you can find here.

VA-Gov: SUSA Has McAuliffe Holding Lead, but Deeds Moves Up 4

SurveyUSA (5/17-19, likely voters, late April in parens):

Terry McAuliffe (D): 37 (38)

Brian Moran (D): 22 (22)

Creigh Deeds (D): 26 (22)

Other/Undecided: 14 (18)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Creigh Deeds (D): 40 (39)

Bob McDonnell (R): 46 (44)

Terry McAuliffe (D): 40 (39)

Bob McDonnell (R): 46 (46)

Brian Moran (D): 37 (34)

Bob McDonnell (R): 47 (46)

(MoE: ±2.4%)

Reasearch 2000 will have a new primary poll out tomorrow, and PPP will have one Friday or Saturday. They note that the three candidates are evenly split among frequent primary voters, but more casual voters lean decidedly toward McAuliffe. The primary is on June 9th.

VA-Gov: Deeds Surges in New Survey USA Poll

Survey USA for WDBJ 7 in Roanoke

Survey USA polled the Virginia Governor’s race again, and with less than three weeks to go, State Senator Creigh Deeds is surging.

Terry McAuliffe leads with 37%.  Deeds is now in second with 26%.  Former Delegate Brian Moran now sits in third place with 22%.

I think this is great news.  I’m rooting for Deeds–I thought he was very impressive in the debate I saw on C-SPAN, and think that he would be the strongest challenger against Attorney General Bob McDonnell.  He’s the only candidate who gained ground since the last SUSA poll, and now leads in Central Virginia.

Being the only candidate from Southern Virginia, I think Deeds can hold our margin down there.  I think he’ll be able to run up the score in NoVA, too–at least as much as he has to.  McAuliffe still seems like a wild-card, and I don’t see Moran pulling it out.  The primary is on June 9; the general in November.

This is certainly a race to watch.

By what margin will Bob Shamansky win?

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VA-Gov: PPP Poll Shows McAuliffe Surging in Dem Primary

Public Policy Polling (PDF) (5/1-3, likely voters, late March in parens):

Terry McAuliffe (D): 30 (18)

Brian Moran (D): 20 (22)

Creigh Deeds (D): 14 (15)

Undecided: 36 (45)

(MoE: ± 4.1%)

This is a big jump for T-Mac from the last PPP poll, which actually had him trailing Moran. But this is now the second survey in a row (SUSA’s was the first) to show McAuliffe with a sizable lead. Still, there are a ton of undecideds and just a month left to go in the race – a lot can happen.

VA-Gov: Moran Leads Narrowly in Primary

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (4/6-8, registered voters):

Brian Moran (D): 24

Terry McAuliffe (D): 19

Creigh Deeds (D): 16

(MoE: ±5%)

Brian Moran (D): 36

Bob McDonnell (R): 37

Terry McAuliffe (D): 33

Bob McDonnell (R): 40

Creigh Deeds (D): 31

Bob McDonnell (R): 38

(MoE: ±4%)

Research 2000 polls the Virginia governor’s race for the first time, finding that ex-Delegate Brian Moran has a small advantage in the primary over former DNC chair Terry McAuliffe. A recent PPP poll had Moran and McAuliffe tied, but gave Moran the momentum (McAuliffe had previously led), and found McAuliffe with higher negatives. That’s mirrored here: Moran’s favorables are 36/33 while McAuliffe is the only candidate in net negative territory at 35/36.

Moran fares slightly better in the general than the other Dems because of his solid base in northern Virginia (he used to represent Alexandria), winning NoVa against Bob McDonnell 49-21. McDonnell wins the rest of the state 43-31, though, and sports impressive favorables of 48/31. Once the Dem primary is over and the winner can aim his fire at McDonnell instead of the other Dems, though, maybe his negatives can get driven up. McDonnell’s support for the GOP-led House of Delegates’ decision to reject federal stimulus money for unemployment benefits provides a good opening.

VA-Gov: Moran & McAulliffe Swap Places in PPP Polling

Public Policy Polling (3/27-29, likely voters, 2/28-3/1 in parentheses):

Brian Moran (D): 22 (19)

Terry McAuliffe (D): 18 (21)

Creigh Deeds (D): 15 (14)

(MoE: 3.6%)

PPP takes its monthly look at the Democratic primary in the Virginia governor’s race. Ex-delegate Brian Moran and former DNC chair Terry McAuliffe have swapped places, with Moran moving into a small lead. Considering that nearly half the voters are still undecided, this looks more like normal fluctuation than a trend… although one item from the fine print suggests that McAuliffe’s negatives may be increasing. His favorable/unfavorable is 32/29, up from 31/24 last month. (Moran and Deeds are less-known but have more upside, at 34/15 and 31/12 respectively.) There’s no head-to-head poll against likely GOP nominee Robert McDonnell.

PPP also takes a look at the crowded Democratic primary for Lt. Governor, finding that 67% of voters are undecided. Among those who have decided, former Secretary of Finance Jody Wagner has a comfortable lead with 21%. Other candidates Jon Bowerbank, Pat Edmonson, and Michael Signer each poll at 4%.