OK, get all the pirate-themed ARG jokes out of your system. Ready now?
American Research Group (likely voters, 6/13-17):
Jeanne Shaheen (D): 54
John Sununu (R-inc): 40
(MoE: ±4%)
Jeanne Shaheen still faces a big campaign funds shortfall compared with the loaded Sununu, but the polls have consistently had this one in Casey/Santorum wipeout territory, and this is no exception. She owes her edge to indies: Shaheen is up 53-38 among independent and undeclared voters.
Of course, that’s peanuts compared with the beat-down that popular incumbent governor John Lynch is administering to state senator Joseph Kenney, as he seeks another term.
John Lynch (D-inc): 65
Joseph Kenney (R): 21
(MoE: ±4%)
Bear in mind, though, that the top line of the poll also has Obama beating McCain 51-39, so this may be an overly Democratic sample. (Or else the McCain campaign is completely imploding, and there’s enough polling evidence over the last week to actually suggest that.)