With the submission of signatures for this year’s Oregon Ballot Measures, I thought I’d run down their chances of making the ballot and what they mean, along with listing those ideas that will not make it this year. Cross-posted from Loaded Orygun (http://www.loadedorygun.net/showDiary.do?diaryId=1220).
On July 3, petitioners turned in the last of their required signatures for this year’s crop of proposed ballot initiatives. The SOS has until about the end of the month to verify whether they are valid or not.
The data sources for most of this come from the SOS’s website at: http://egov.sos.state.or.us/elec/web_irr_search.search_form
Acronyms:
AG: Attorney General.
SOS: Secretary of State.
Some process basics:
Although commonly thought only as an Initiative process, the actual truth is that there are four major types of ballot measures (of which the first three are by far the most common):
Legislative Referrals-Typically these are constitutional modifications but they can be statutory as well (See 2007’s Measure 49, which modified the state’s land use laws as an example). Depending on the specific measure, they require either a simple majority or, in some cases, a 3/5 majority to get on the ballot.
Citizen Statutory Initiatives-Change or create state law. They require 82,679 signatures.
Citizen Constitutional Initiatives-Change the Oregon Constitution. They require 110,358 signatures.
Citizen Referrals-Refer a recently passed law, by the legislature, to the people for a vote, most recently seen in the failed attempts to get votes on the state’s new domestic partnership (civil unions) and GLBT civil rights laws. They require 55,179 signatures, which must be turned in within 90 days after the law is signed by the Governor.
Signature Verification Method:
Oregon is unique in that it does not generally verify every single signature. Instead, the SOS randomly samples about 10-15% of the signatures and verifies them against the statewide database. There are accepted ratios that for every type of violation (such as out of state, not registered and duplicate signatures) that are found, there are likely to be a certain number in the full set. If a sampling shows a measure may not have enough to qualify, the SOS then takes a second equally sized sample and verifies that. Typically about 65-75% of signatures submitted for a measure are valid, although non-paid signature gatherers tend to do much better than paid ones. The recent record for paid signature gatherers is 85-90% by the Christian Right folks, who get such high validity rates by passing around the petitions at churches, where registration is high.
Changes to Oregon’s Initiative Laws:
In response to a number of minor scandals, mostly by conservative groups, the Oregon Legislature passed HB 2082 in 2007, which set down increased requirements for gathering signatures. Simply put, the requirements are as follows:
1. Required online training courses and certification for all paid signature gatherers.
2. The state will now provide basic templates for petition signature sheets. In the past, sheets were given a guide, which was often followed incorrectly, leading to invalidated signatures.
3. 1,000 signatures must now be submitted to get a ballot title (the description that goes on the ballot, widely considered a key part of whether a measure passes or not). Previously, only 50 signatures were required, leading to “title shopping”, where groups would submit many versions of the same measure to try and get a good ballot title.
4. The requirement that each sheet only contain signatures from persons in only one county is repealed. This was done because with the new statewide voter registration database, it was an unnecessary restriction.
5. Increased restrictions on signature gatherers related to what they can or can’t do to correct invalid information on a petition sheet.
6. The SOS now serves as the campaign finance organization for all initiatives in the state, including local initiatives. Previously, the SOS only worked on state level measures.
7. All signature gathering companies are required to maintain and submit regular accounts showing that petitioners were paid in a manner that was not per signature but by hour/day. This provision has caused a lot of trouble for some initiatives and may well keep some off the ballot. It is currently being challenged in federal court, but is not expected to be successfully so.
8. All sponsors and signature gathering firms are now held personally liable for the illegal activities of anyone working for/under contract to them. This is important because up to now only the signature gatherers themselves was liable.
Failed Ideas:
The following measures are a selection of the bad ideas that thankfully will not qualify for this year’s ballot:
Note: All Measures are listed by the Initiative Petition (IP) number.
Key:
S-Statutory Measure
C-Constitutional Measure
22-C: Would have “Made Oregon Constitutional Guarantee Of Free Expression Of Opinion Inapplicable To Conduct Or Personal Behavior”.
23-S: Would have banned any teaching that “promotes GLBT behavior” at public schools and universities.
35-S/36-C: Would have allowed building a casino on the location of the old Multnomah Greyhound track. The State Constitution currently prohibits casino gambling outside of Indian Reservations (and has since the state’s founding).
78-C: Would have posed a supermajority requirement (3/4) on the legislature for passing a law with an emergency clause. This is important because laws with an emergency clause are not subject to a referendum petition since they take affect immediately upon their signature by the governor.
105-S: Would have revoked the right of the federal government to own state land, would have reverted such land to the counties for ownership. This measure was rejected by the AG’s office on the grounds that the state did not have the authority do take this action.
108-C: Would have declared that using public funds to perform abortions is murder.
112-S: Would have basically turned all state workers into federal immigration officers, requiring them to verify status of all they serve.
Measures Submitting Signatures:
This list only includes those measures that had not reached the required number of signatures before I wrote about them last. For a list of all measures, see this diary: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/6/25/113448/828/338/541717.
Key:
Validity Rate-Percentage of Signatures found valid in previous submissions.
Required Signature Numbers: Statutory 82,769, Constitutional 110,358.
20-S
Chief Sponsor: Anti-tax activist Bill Sizemore
Summary: Requires teacher pay to be based on “performance” not seniority.
Valid Signatures Previously Submitted: 81,149.
Previous Validity Rate: 65%.
Signatures now submitted: 3,784.
Required Validity Rate: 43%.
Will it Qualify: Yes.
41-C
Chief Sponsor: Longtime loser Republican candidate Kevin Mannix.
Summary: Dedicates 15% of Lottery funds to Crime Prevention, Investigation and Prosecution efforts.
Valid Signatures Previously Submitted: 102,565.
Previous Validity Rate: 64%.
Signatures now submitted: 18,183.
Required Validity Rate: 43%.
Will it Qualify: Yes.
51-S
Chief Sponsor: Conservative Activist R. Russell Walker.
Summary: Caps Attorneys fees, a classic “tort reform measure”.
Valid Signatures Previously Submitted: 68,227
Previous Validity Rate: 64%.
Signatures now submitted: 19,129
Required Validity Rate: 76%.
Will it Qualify: Likely No.
Note: The sponsors for this measure are currently challenging the state’s new initiative requirements, especially those related to providing “accounts” for all signature gathering efforts. As such, these recently submitted signatures should technically not count since they are not currently in compliance with the law. However, the SOS has agreed to provisionally count them pending the outcome of the lawsuit.
53-S
Chief Sponsor: Walker.
Summary: Requires sanctioning of attorneys who file “frivolous lawsuits”.
Valid Signatures Previously Submitted: 69,263.
Previous Validity Rate: 64%.
Signatures now submitted: 19,383
Required Validity Rate: 70%.
Will it Qualify: Leans No.
Note: As with the last one, these signatures are currently presumed invalid as the sponsors are not in compliance with the initiative requirements posed by the SOS.
109-S
Chief Sponsor: Former SOS Phil Keisling (D).
Summary: Creates an “Open Primary” allowing top two, regardless of party affiliation advance to the general election in most cases.
Valid Signatures Previously Submitted: 69,383.
Validity Rate: 76%.
Signatures now submitted: 27,421.
Required Validity Rate: 49%.
Will it Qualify: Likely Yes.
Let me know what you think.