Tag: Dick Zimmer

You may remember that Rasmussen poll from one month ago that momentarily had everyone in a tizzy when it showed Frank Lautenberg, in the immediate post-primary frenzy, leading Dick Zimmer by only 1 point, 45-44. Rasmussen’s back with another shot at it:

Rasmussen (7/7, likely voters) (6/9 in parentheses):

Frank Lautenberg (D-inc): 49 (45)

Dick Zimmer (R): 36 (44)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

This is very much in line with the June 26 Fairleigh Dickinson poll (Lautenberg 45, Zimmer 28) and the June 11 Quinnipiac poll (Lautenberg 47, Zimmer 38). So what happened on June 9? Well, outliers happen. Even if the best pollster in the world does everything absolutely right — gets a good sample, eliminates all bias from the instrument — 1 out of 20 times, it’s still going to be completely wrong, i.e. outside-the-margin-of-error wrong. That’s what the 95% confidence interval, a caveat buried in the fine print of every poll report, is all about. Happens to everyone, even Rasmussen.

Fairleigh Dickinson Univ. (6/17-22, registered voters):

Frank Lautenberg (D-inc): 45

Dick Zimmer (R-inc): 28

(MoE: ±4%)

This is local pollster Fairleigh Dickinson’s first shot at the New Jersey Senate race, and this is the biggest lead Lautenberg has seen in any poll since ex-Rep. Dick Zimmer became the GOP nominee. As much as we’d like to see the NRSC get bamboozled into pouring big money into New Jersey in the hopes of getting their one pickup here, these numbers indicate they may not bother with that.

45% can’t be a good sign for Lautenberg, although [insert moldy cliche about how all New Jersey residents hate all their politicians here]. The biggest news here may be that hardly anyone has any idea who Dick Zimmer is, which is surprising considering that he used to represent Congress from NJ-12 from 1990 to 1996, where he was the prime mover for Megan’s Law, and ran for the Senate in 1996. (I suppose 12 years is several lifetimes in politics.) Zimmer’s name recognition numbers are down near Bob Roggio territory: 16% favorable, 10% unfavorable. 44% have never heard of him, while 29% have heard of him but have no opinion.