Thoughts from Netroots CA, 2010 Election

(Also at Nevada Progressive, and I have photos from Netroots CA at my Twitpic!)

OK, so I’ve had more time to process what happened. And I had a chance to talk with my old Cali friends at Netroots California last Saturday. And I came out surprisingly hopeful about our future.

While we did have some rough losses in Nevada, overall the picture here was much brighter than the rest of the country. Come on, all the incumbent statewide elected Democrats are reelected while Harry Reid won by over 5.6%! Reid outperformed almost all the public polls. What happened? How come “The Great Red Tide” that destroyed many Dems in many states east of The Rockies was barely a ripple here?

Basically, it comes down to what Harry Reid and Nevada Democrats did right. They invested in getting out the vote. They made our progressive message clear and concise AND accessible to regular voters. And they reached out to minority communities and actually IMPROVED Latin@ turnout over 2006 AND 2008!

It really comes down to this. Even in “wave elections”, “the wave” doesn’t have to be a monstrous tsunami. Good campaigns still matter. Good field still matters. And good messaging still matters. Harry Reid made all this happen and more.

Ralston explained this on Sunday.


The Reid organization’s Terminator-like single-mindedness, relentlessness and discipline turned preparation into the most satisfying victory of Reid’s career, a resurrection unthinkable most of the year by the Beltway cognoscenti. Combined with an Angle campaign that was thoroughly unprepared for the post-primary onslaught – think of a Little League batter facing Roy Halladay – that by the time the GOP nominee brought in some D.C. pros, the damage was insurmountable.

Interestingly, a similar dynamic appeared in California last Tuesday. More Latin@ voters turned out than ever before. And while Jerry Brown’s campaign (for CA Governor) didn’t exactly “strike while the iron was hot” on delivering his message or attacking Meg Whitman’s record, California unions did. And they delivered, big time!

And Barbara Boxer followed a very similar strategy to Reid’s in defining Carly Fiorina early as quite the unacceptable choice, delivering a progressive message in a practical way to attract voters (Hint: Make it real. Make it tangible. Make it about one’s pocketbook/wallet/purse.), and turning out Dem voters like crazy.

Again, it comes down to whether Democrats can field good candidates, deliver a good message, and turn out as many allied voters as possible. It worked in California and Nevada… But because the national Democratic groups failed in these categories and many other state parties were in turmoil, that’s why the results were so bad elsewhere.

Why didn’t other Senate candidates try to turn health care reform and good climate policy into winning arguments? Why didn’t other state parties invest more in good GOTV infrastructure? Why didn’t the DCCC and DSCC take a closer look at the winning arguments being made by Reid and Boxer?

That’s the challenge moving forward. President Obama needs to rethink his messaging. Democrats need to work harder on showing how good progressive policy means more and better jobs. And Democrats nationally need to look at places like Nevada and California to learn how to rebuild good, strong GOTV infrastructure. And if Obama can turn his numbers around and offer a strong and appealing progressive message that reveals the crap the GOP is truly offering and explains how to truly get our nation back on track, he can win handily again and Democrats can soon retake the House and keep the Senate.

It really comes down to that. Oh, and I had a great time in SF… 😉

But I’m hoping we have an even better time back in Vegas this weekend!

SSP Daily Digest: 7/27 (Morning Edition)

  • Netroots Nation: In case you missed it, click the link to watch the video of our panel on the 2010 horserace from last Friday at Netroots Nation. It was a terrific, fast-paced panel and we were asked a broad range of questions on a ton of different races. Fun stuff! Also of interest, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner conducted a straw poll of convention-goers. They included one horserace-ish question, asking participants which race was their top priority this fall. 31% picked NV-Sen, followed by PA-Sen (25%), KY-Sen (21%), MN-06 (15%), and VA-05 (7%).
  • CA-Sen: The NRSC has reserved $1.75 million in ad time for Carly Fiorina – but remember, just cuz you reserve time doesn’t mean you necessarily wind up buying it, so this could just be a feint.
  • FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek is up with his first ad, attacking zillionaire schmuckface Jeff Greene for his past run for Congress in California – as a Republican – and for the windfall he reaped by betting on a housing market collapse two years ago. Adam Smith of the St. Pete Times says the buy is for $420K, which he thinks is “pretty small” for the pretty big state of Florida.
  • IL-Sen: Mark Kirk is pulling a Pat Toomey. You’ll recall that the ultra-conservative Pennsylvania senate candidate somewhat surprisingly endorsed Sonia Sotomayor’s nomination for the Supreme Court. Now it’s Kirk’s turn to try to burnish his “moderate” credentials, so he’s backing Elena Kagan.
  • Meanwhile, here’s some new craziness: A federal district court judge just ordered a special election to fill the remaining months of Roland Burris’s term, most likely to coincide with the regular election in November. Both Kirk and Dem Alexi Giannoulias have said they want to run in the special, and they probably won’t have to face a primary, since the judge seems inclined to allow nominees to be picked by party committees. Politico points out a potentially huge angle to all of this: the FEC says that since the special would constitute a new election, the candidates would be able to raise fresh money for that race – meaning that Kirk and Giannoulias could hit up maxed-out donors once more.

  • PA-Sen: But wait! Pat Toomey isn’t pulling a Pat Toomey! He’s coming out against Elena Kagan.
  • WV-Sen: When early word came that Rep. Shelley Moore Capito wouldn’t run for Robert Byrd’s seat, we said that we’d move the race to Likely D. Capito made it official last Wednesday, so consider this move retroactive to that date.
  • MI-Gov: Bummer: Detroit Mayor Dave Bing has endorsed DLC Dem Andy Dillon, whom Dillon called a “kindred spirit.” Given Bing’s outsider status and short tenure, I suspect he’s not quite a “machine” mayor, though, who can deliver wards on the turn of a heel.
  • MN-Gov: Republican gubernatorial nominee Tom Emmer continues to burnish his moron credentials. The other day, he declared that Minnesota should pass its own GI bill to help veterans. Good idea, right? So good, in fact, that the state actually passed such a law three years ago. Even better: Emmer, a state representative, voted against the bill!
  • RI-Gov: Linc Chafee won the endorsement of the 10,000-strong Rhode Island Federation of Teachers and Health Professionals, his first big union nod. The Projo says that the teachers had been favored to go to AG Patrick Lynch, but Lynch rather unexpectedly dropped out of the race not long ago, and evidently Dem Treasurer Frank Caprio didn’t suit them.
  • SC-Gov: Nikki Haley, a member of the Strength Through Crippling Austerity wing of the Republican Party, is trying to soften (i.e., flip-flop) some of her less business-friendly stances. The AP explains her shifts on two issues: the infamous anti-tax pledge sponsored by Americans for Tax Reform, and the bailout.
  • IL-17: Can an internal poll sometimes seem just too good? That’s how I feel about this survey by Magellan Strategies for GOPer Bobby Schilling, which has him up 45-32 over Dem Rep. Phil Hare. YMMV.
  • NY-13: John McCain is endorsing former FBI agent Mike Grimm in the GOP primary. Grimm has faced hostility from the Republican establishment here, which has backed Michael Allegretti (whom Maggie Haberman delightfully refers to with the epithet “Bayside fuel heir”). Apparently, McCain (who has a race of his own to worry about) will both fundraise and campaign for Grimm, though no word yet on when. As for why he’s getting involved, Haberman says it’s because of his relationship with Rudy Giuliani and Guy Molinari, both of whom are supporting Grimm.
  • NY-15: Charlie Rangel’s autobiography is titled “And I Haven’t Had a Bad Day Since,” referring to his service in the Korean War. Well, it sure seems like he’s had more than a few bad days lately, with the latest batch coming in the last week. The House Ethics Committee declared on Thursday that Rangel had indeed committed transgressions and created a new panel to investigate further. In response, Indiana senate candidate Brad Ellsworth announced he would give to charity all the money he’s received from Rangel (some $12K). Rep. Betty Sutton (OH-13) went one further, calling on Rangel to resign. For the record, Rangel disagrees with me, saying: “I’m not in a foxhole, I’m not surrounded by a million Chinese communists coming after me. Life is good. I’m 80 years old. I’m on my way to a parade.”
  • OK-05: SoonerPoll.com has a survey out of the 5th CD Republican field, finding former state Rep. Kevin Calvey increasing his lead from 20 to 28 since the last test in March. Some Dude James Lankford is in second with 20, followed by 15 for state Rep. Mike Thompson, 6 for state Rep. Shane Jett, and a bunch of other Some Dudes bringing up the rear.
  • PA-15: This is what we call a good get: Bill Clinton will be coming to Salisbury Township for a fundraiser for John Callahan on August 10th. As is so often the case with the Big Dog, this is payback for Callahan’s support of Hillary Clinton’s presidential bid in 2008.
  • TN-09: Willie Herenton, asshole until the end:
  • Willie W. Herenton, the former mayor, is accusing Steve Cohen, the white two-term United States representative, of “trying to act black.” He tells voters in this majority-black city that they “need to come off that Cohen plantation and get on the Herenton freedom train.”

  • WI-03: State Sen. Dan Kapanke has an internal out from Public Opinion Strategies (memo here) which shows Dem Rep. Ron Kind up just 44-38.
  • Live From Netroots Nation

    The editors of Daily Kos and Swing State Project are teaming up for a Q&A on the 2010 elections here in Las Vegas. This show is set to go off at 4:30 Pacific time, and you can watch the live feed below. More information on the panel (and the panelists) is available here.

    UPDATE: A big thank you to everyone who came to our panel or watched us online. If you missed it, you can view a recording here or just watch the video embedded above.

    SSP Panel at Netroots Nation: Friday, 4:30pm

    We’ve mentioned it previously, but I just wanted to pimp it one last time: James, Crisitunity and I will all be doing a Q&A panel at Netroots Nation this coming Friday, on exactly the topic you’d expect us to be doing: the 2010 horserace. Here’s the full description:

    2010: The Big Picture

    Time: Friday, July 23rd, 4:30pm – 5:45pm

    Room: Brasilia 6

    The editors of Daily Kos and the Swing State Project invite you to join them for an in-depth Q&A about the 2010 elections. We’ll take questions on all subjects, from the nitty-gritty-polling, fundraising and redistricting – to the big picture – marquee races, key themes and the impact on progressive goals. If you want to know more about what’s going to happen in November and what it will mean for Democrats, Republicans and the entire country, stop in!

    Also on the panel will be Markos Moulitsas, Laura Clawson, and Steve Singiser from Daily Kos. It will be moderated by Joan McCarter, also of DK. There are quite a few other horserace-themed panels that are worth checking out – you can search the complete Netroots Nation agenda here. I also wanted to give a special shout-out to filmmaker Jeff Reichert, who will be doing a “showcase” screening of about twenty minutes from his new movie Gerrymandering, a topic of keen interest to many folks here.

    Anyhow, if you’re going to be at NN, let us know in comments! And look us up at the convention!

    UPDATE: Streaming video of our panel will be made available here.

    SSP Daily Digest: 3/5 (Morning Edition)

  • AR-Sen: SSP hero and perfect fuckup Bill Sali held yard sales to raise money for his flailing campaign. GOP senate hopeful Kim Hendren is doing him one better: He’s selling five of his black angus cows. Moo.
  • KY-Sen: Like rival Jack Conway, Dem Dan Mongiardo is making a small, made-for-media ad buy criticizing Jim Bunning’s fight against unemployment benefits, and specifically calls out teabaggers. Mongiardo being Mongiardo, though, his spokesbot can’t resist taking a douchey shot at Conway’s ad. Seems like sour grapes, since Conway’s team thought of the idea first.
  • NY-Gov: Headline for the times, from the Times: “Paterson Still Governor, for Now.” Also, Generalissimo Francisco Franco still dead. Only one of these statements is likely to remain true for much longer.
  • TX-Gov: The battle lines have been drawn, and it’ll be secessionista Rick Perry vs. former Houston Mayor Bill White. Rasmussen sees Perry leading 49-43, not much changed from the 47-41 he had it in late February. White has 54-34 favorables, while Perry is at 54-46. Though since Ras (contra every other pollster) likes to look at only “very favorable” and “very unfavorable” scores, it’s worth noting that Perry is at just 18-23 by that metric, while White is at 25-13. Whoops!
  • AL-05: Minority Leader John Boehner is bringing his orange perma-tan with him to Alabama to do a fundraiser for turncoat Parker Griffith. Griffith’s two teabaggy opponents are furious about this turn of events and trying to get some mileage out of casting Griffith as the establishment choice. With DC as toxic as it’s ever been, maybe that’ll work. Still, I think Griffith is most likely to be defeated if the uber-wingnuts unite around a single candidate (see IL-14).
  • FL-08: Dem Rep. Alan Grayson released a stunty poll of the Republican primary in his race… but included his own name – and he’s leading the pack. I’ve never heard of the pollster, Middleton Market Research, but their CEO is listed on LinkedIn as a “Senior Account Executive at To be determined.”
  • FL-17: Another candidate got into the race to replace Kendrick Meek today: North Miami City Commissioner Scott Galvin. Galvin is the first white candidate in this 58% African American district.
  • GA-09: GOP Rep. Nathan Deal now says that he’ll delay his resignation from the House until March 31st, so that he can vote against any healthcare legislation. This is probably a stunt to help Deal impress the Republican electorate, since he’s trailed badly in all polling for the GA-Gov GOP nomination. Deal doesn’t want to stay too much longer, though, since he’s just one step ahead of an Ethics Committee investigation.
  • MS-01: Ah, cat fud. FOX Newser Angela McGlowan, a GOP candidate vying to take on Travis Childers, won’t commit to backing the establishment favorite, state Sen. Alan Nunnelee if he should win the primary. This is exactly what the Republicans don’t want, of course, since a bitterly divided primary in 2008 helped hand this seat to Childers in the first place. It’s all the more remarkabe given how much effort the NRCC put into clearing the field for Nunnelee. I almost wonder if state Sen. Merle Flowers, who deferred to Nunnelee but did not endorse him, might be re-considering.
  • NY-29: Is this going to get worse before it gets better? The House Committee just launched an investigation into whatever it is Eric Massa is alleged to have done. Meanwhile, Massa is laying low – he’s missed several votes (including one on the jobs bill) since his announcement.
  • PA-12: Former Murtha aide Mark Critz says that he’s raised over $100,000 so far for his special election bid to replace his boss. Meanwhile, Critz’s opponent for the Democratic nomination, ex-Treasurer Barbara Hafer, is pre-emptively doing all she can to discredit the nomination process, as well as pressing for the release of Critz’s testimony to the House Ethics Committee. (J) On the Republican side, businessman Tim Burns has launched a teeny-weeny radio ad buy.
  • Netroots Nation: Thinking about heading to the progressive confab that is Netroots Nation? Well, MT Gov. Brian Schweitzer has already reserved a seat. He’ll be the keynote speaker on the convention’s opening night.
  • Redistricting: The National Democratic Redistricting Trust, a new group designed to support Dems in the inevitable legal battles over redistricting, has asked the FEC whether member of Congress can raise soft money to support the trust’s efforts.
  • Redistricting 2010 Panel at Netroots Nation

    With all the talk of redistricting around here, I wanted to let people know about an upcoming panel on the topic at Netroots Nation in Pittsburgh.  

    The panel titled “Redistricting is Coming! Why Progressives Must Focus on the State Legislature in 2010 and How You Can Help” will be held on:

    Thursday, August 13th at 4:30 p.m. in Rooms 301/302 at the Conference Center.

    The panel will cover redistricting and recent history but will have a more intense focus on how Democrats can create a “permanent majority” beginning in 2010 at the state legislative level. The panel will look at what we can do to help ensure that redistricting happens in our favor, from finding key races to actively support across the country to running for office at a local level.  

    The panel will feature blogger Matt Glazer from Burnt Orange Report, Matt Compton the DLCC Communications Director, Sam Bennett from the Women’s Campaign Forum, and State Rep. Chelsa Wagner (D-Pittsburgh. Christopher Massicotte, Director of Sales and Marketing for NGP, will moderate the panel discussion and interactive questioning. Join us for the event if you will be attending Netroots, the Facebook event is at http://bit.ly/qS1So.  

    But even if you are unable to make it, you can follow the action @leftyngp on Twitter or submit your own questions by using the hashtag, #redistricting2010.

    Hope to see you all in Pittsburgh, or at least get some great questions for what should be an interesting panel!

    Help send me to Netroots Nation!

    I want to go to Pittsburgh. Not for the G20 summit, not to see the best team in football’s opener, not simply to visit a emerging hub of the green economy.

    I want to go to Pittsburgh for the fourth annual Netroots Nation convention. But I need your help. I try not to ask for too much from this community but I need to ask for some help again.

    From August 13-16 Pittsburgh will be hosting this years Netroots Nation, I want to be there to appear on a panel, attend other awesome panels, meet you all and do the whole Netroots Nation experience.

    I need your help to get there. Democracy for America is running a scholarship competition to help make the costs of attending more affordable. They will be selecting 10 winners from the final round  judged by a variety of factors, but one of them is public support. You can help me win a scholarship by voting for me. It will take less than a minute and I’d really appreciate your help.  Just click here. That will take you to a page where you can either log into your existing DFA account (if you have one) or create a new one, then it takes you to a page where you can write a quick comment of support and click on “voice support” to officially support me. If you want to read my application click here.

    It costs money for DFA to provide these scholarships, if you can send them some money to help out with the cost.  It helps send 30 people to Netroots Nation who might not have been able otherwise. It was built out of kid oakland’s original chicago voices effort. So any donations you could send them give a great bang for the buck and help send some great people to Netroots Nation.

    Thanks so much for all that you do and for any votes that you could give me.

    Sí se puede!

    FL-18 – Ties That Bind

    (Cross-Posted at MyDD, Open Left, and Daily Kos)

    This weekend, we saw once more that no matter what happens in Iraq, there is no end in sight to this war unless we demand it.

    For the people of Congressional District 18 in South Florida, getting out of the war in Iraq is a top priority.

    Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

    www.voteTaddeo.com

    For years, George Bush and his cronies – like my opponent, Republican Ileana Ros-Lehtinen – said that American troops would redeploy from Iraq when the Iraqi people asked us to.  Last Saturday, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki asked us to leave.

    The out-of-touch Washington Republicans responded strangely, with George Bush speaking of “time horizons.” John McCain flip-flopped on his original position, and said that he knew better than Iraq’s democratically elected prime minister what the Iraqi people really wanted.

    Bush-Republican Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, my opponent, says nothing. Her silence is deafening.  For years, she has rubber-stamped President Bush’s failed Iraq war strategy unquestioningly.  Now she stays quiet, and doesn’t even mention Iraq on her website.

    Ros-Lehtinen and President Bush

    W’s Brother, Jeb Bush, was Ros-Lehtinen’s first campaign manager – in 1989

    Ros-Lehtinen’s incumbency allows her to be the ranking member of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs.  From that position, she forces her right-wing agenda into every element of our country’s foreign policy.

    Ros-Lehtinen Uses Her Voice to Silence Other Women Who Need Help

    Ros-Lehtinen is a leading proponent of the global gag rule, which denies millions of women at home and around the world access to life-saving affordable health care and sex education they require.

    On the Foreign Affairs Committee, Ros-Lehtinen is the senior disciple of the Bush Doctrine of senseless, pre-emptive war in Congress.  She remains smug and unrepentant for her lockstep support of the war.

    Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

    Annette at the Democracy for America-Miami Memorial Day Service

    I believe it is time for Iraqis to take responsibility for the security of Iraq and to bring our troops home. The war in Iraq is costing American taxpayers hundreds of millions of dollars a day. That is money we desperately need here at home to invest in our schools, bring down health care costs, protect Social Security, and work towards energy independence. I will stand up for these priorities in Congress.

    We can end this war. I am proud to be a Democrat, and I am proud to endorse the Responsible Plan to End the War in Iraq. After years of a mis-guided war, Democrats must lead the way.

    Ros-Lehtinen rubber-stamps Bush’s Iraq policy every step of the way, and she joins McCain in wanting a war in Iraq without end. I attended Netroots Nation last weekend, and I felt the real desire for change across the country.  Change is more than a cliché in 2008.  It’s obvious that our country is going in the wrong direction, and that more of the same is not enough to put our nation back on the right track.

    I’ve out-raised Ros-Lehtinen in the first two quarters, and my district is the most Democratic and most progressive of the three  seats at play in South Florida.  I am honored by the great support I’ve received from my community, and also from the Netroots.  I am honored to have been endorsed by Democracy for America and, as of yesterday, Blue America

    After seven years of failed policies, we are in a recession, health care costs are rising, and we are in a war without end. I know America needs a new beginning. We need greater investment in renewable energy, an end to subsidies for the big oil companies, and affordable health care for children and seniors.

    I am a successful small-business owner, and I have a business plan to win this campaign.  We are focused and disciplined, and I will defeat Ros-Lehtinen this November.

    I ask for your continued support as I take on a 18-year incumbent with a long record of voting against families and against our men and women in uniform.

    Thank you, and I welcome any questions and comments,

    Annette Taddeo

    Help! Looking for roommate for 2BR condo near Conv. Center for Netroots Nation

    I’m looking for a roommate for NN.  You’d have your own bedroom in a 2BR situation, very, very close to the convention center, right on 6th St.  It’s about two block according to Google Maps.

    If you want to be in the center of it all, get a cheaper room than the nearby hotels, all while maintaining some privacy, get in touch.

    Your cost would be about $312, which covers a Wednesday check-in with Monday morning check-out (5 nights).  The nightly cost for the whole thing is cheaper than a room at the Hilton et al.  There is also a $200 refundable deposit that I will have to pay.  I’d ask for a check for $100 that I’d mail back to you when I got mine back.

    The only downsides I am aware of: you must pay cash upon arrival (or money order / cashiers check) and it’s so close to the party district as to be noisy.  The noise is not a problem for me — I sleep fine with earplugs and recommend them if this is the only reason you’d pass this up.

    There is, I understand, also a pullout sofa in a loft over the living area.  A third roommate could take that and reduce costs further, but I don’t really see the need.

    More about your potential roommate after the flip…

    Just in case you are particular about your roommates (we wouldn’t be sharing a bedroom, so such things are not a big deal to me):  I’m male, mid-thirties.  I do not smoke tobacco — if you do, just keep in outside the condo.  I do drink and am something of a beer snob (I homebrew), so I’ll be doing some beer tourism while in Austin.

    I’m a longtime lurker, only occasional poster/commenter on dKos, OpenLeft, MyDD and such.  I am a political geek and can chat about it for hours, but then that’s why I’m going to NN.  

    bumped

    Are You Coming to Netroots Nation?

    Netroots Nation is just over a week away. James and I are doing a panel which I know will be of interest to this site’s readers:

    60/275: The Races We Aren’t Watching but Should (and Those We’re Watching, Too)

    Saturday, July 19th 3:00 PM – 4:15 PM

    Discussion, Exhibit Hall 4

    House and Senate campaign handicappers from Daily Kos, MyDD and the Swing State Project put their heads together to talk about the most important races around the country in 2008 – and the possibility of a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate and an even stronger majority in the House.

    Joining us on the panel are Jonathan Singer of MyDD and Markos and Brownsox of Daily Kos. Two other members of the Swing State crew, Trent and Ben, will also be at the convention. Are you coming to Netroots Nation? Be sure to say hi if you are!