Tag: IL-14

According to the Douchebag of Liberty (sub. required), GOP sources in Illinois are leaking the word that former Speaker Dennis Hastert “plans to resign November 6 this year instead of finishing out his term,” triggering a special election.  The Prince of Darkness lays out the ramnifications of such a move:

1. Under Illinois statute, the governor, Rod Blagojevich (D), would get to pick the date of both of the special general election and the special primary election (with separate ballots for each party). The general election would have to be within 120 days of the vacancy (meaning by early March, if the November 6 resignation date holds). February 5 is the date for Illinois’s presidential and congressional primaries, and slating the special election — either the primaries or the general — on that date would save state money.
2. The effect of the placing either the special primary or the special general on the same day as the presidential primary is impossible to determine at this point. If one party is seeing a more competitive presidential primary by that date, it could benefit from boosted turnout. The presence of Illinois Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) on the primary ballot could help Democrats.
3. In any event, a special election would entail a much briefer campaign, which would favor the more well-funded candidates. That would be businessmen Jim Oberweis (R) and Bill Foster (D).
4. On net, Hastert’s early resignation, by stirring the pot, gives Democrats a slightly better chance in this Republican district.

Hastert has previously said that he’d serve out the rest of his term as long as he felt effective, but I would not be surprised in the least if he’s preparing his ‘chute for an emergency exit.

According to CQ Politics, former Republican Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert will announce his retirement plans on Friday.

After less than a year as a rank-and-file House member, former Speaker J. Dennis Hastert is expected to call an end to a political career that made him the longest serving Republican Speaker in the history of the House of Representatives.

Several Illinois newspapers, including the Aurora Beacon News and the Chicago Tribune, reported Tuesday that the Illinois Republican has scheduled a Friday announcement on the steps of the Kendall County Courthouse in Yorkville, Ill. While Hastert aides are refusing to discuss what he plans to say, he is expected to announce that he will not run for a 12th term in 2008, according to Republican sources.

The only question that remains is: will Hastert resign this year, or will he serve out the balance of his final term?

Greg Giroux, writing for CQ, takes a look at the district’s numbers and, erm, finds that Republicans are favored to retain this Republican-leaning seat (boldly stated, CQ): 

The expected retirement of former House Speaker J. Dennis Hastert from Illinois’ 14th District will serve as a test of Republican strength in predominantly suburban and exurban districts that have long been GOP bailiwicks.

On paper at least, Republicans will be favored to retain the 14th, which includes exurbs west of Chicago and rural communities farther west. President Bush took 55 percent of the vote in the district in 2004, and Hastert won re-election to an 11th term last fall with 59.8 percent of the vote. Still, that was his lowest vote share since he first captured the seat in 1986 with 52 percent of the vote.

The other nugget out of all this from Illinois’ other retiring Representative, Ray Lahood:

LaHood, who recently announced his own plan to retire, said he believed there would be additional retirement announcements from within the House GOP. “I retired because it was the right time to leave. Others will also be leaving, for their own reasons,” he said.

Let the games begin.

(Hat-tip to TheUnknown285.)

Speculation over the fate of former Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert has oscillated between rampant retirement rumors and some suggestions that Hastert is actually enjoying his new gig as a backbencher (perhaps he grew tired of being the poster boy for President Bush’s failed policies in the House).  According to the Beacon News, Hastert will announce his re-election plans one way or the other on Friday:

Former Speaker of the House Rep. Dennis Hastert is expected to reveal Friday whether he will run for re-election.

A speech has been announced for 10:30 a.m. Friday in Hastert’s home town of Yorkville at the old Kendall County Courthouse, Hastert staffers confirmed Monday. Staffers were tightlipped about whether the former teacher and wrestling coach who climbed to the pinnacle of Congressional political power would seek a 12th term.

While Democrats have had not exactly flocked to challenge Hastert in elections past, a small swarm of candidates has emerged to make a run at the seat, including physicist Bill Foster, attorney Jotham Stein, and 2006 candidate John Laesch.  Another potential candidate, state Rep. Linda Chapa LaVia, has formed an exploratory committee in anticipation of a Hastert retirement. State Rep. Linda Chapa LaVia, who earlier considered a run, has bowed out of the race.  (H/T: TXObserver in the comments.)

With a PVI of R+4.8, Hastert’s district certainly leans Republican, but Illinois Democrats have scored wins in territory as red or redder.  Melissa Bean toppled long-time incumbent Phil Crane in 2004 despite George W. Bush carrying her district by 12 points.  In total, there are 25 Democratic incumbents in the House of Representatives who represent districts with a PVI more favorable to Republicans than Illinois’ 14th.

Stay tuned.  (H/T: Atrios.)

Yep here we go again. With the dust not yet settled on the last challenge in FL-13 (Good luck Christine) we take a look forward to 2008.

Wander below the fold for the good oil.

Well well well. It seems so soon since we were celebrating the Midterm results and our record of contesting 425 Districts. That’s because it is so soon (LOL). Odd thing to do here in Australia watch the midterms but I took the day off work and had a merry old time watching it all unfold on the net and on cable he he he.

Nonetheless time for the 50 State Page to crank up for 2008 courtesy of the redoubtable Barry Welsh. This cycle we have some help however from the magnificent 2008 Race Tracker wiki. Go and take a look at them both right now and whilst you are there throw Barry some cash. He will be running again and is rightly a netroots champion.

Now for the good oil;
248 races with confirmed candidates. A confirmed candidate has either filed with the FEC, The Sec of State or has an active campaign website, or even if they come and blog and say yep I am running.

The 248 includes all 233 Democratic incumbents (yeh yeh I know some will not run but I am assuming we will find candidates in those districts, and all Dem incumbents are also listed as Running But Unconfirmed).

There are also 15 Republican held districts where we have confirmed candidates as follows:
FL-01,
FL-09,
FL-21,
IL-14,
IA-04,
MI-07,
MO-09,
NE-02,
NJ-11,
NC-08,
NC-09,
OH-07,
OH-16,
PA-03,
TX-04.

But wait there is more.
We also have 238 candidates who I believe are running but who are at this stage unconfirmed according to the above criteria. All 233 districts held by Democrats but also 5 districts held by Republicans as follows:

AR-03,
CA-04,
ID-01,
IN-06 hurry up and confirm Barry!,
NJ-05.

We also have 6 rumoured candidates. These guys are mentioned as considering the race in the following districts:
FL-06,
FL-13 *** depends on the outcome of the challenge,
NV-03,
NJ-07,
PA-15,
TX-06.

So we are off and racing for 2008. Use the 2008 Race Tracker wiki as the primary source of gossip and information as it is a fantastic site and I have spent a LOT of time contributing there also.

Any candidate news, particularly opponents for Repubs welcome in the comments!

Via the Hotline (sub. only):

At least 3 state legislators are “looking at running” for outgoing Speaker Dennis Hastert’s seat “if and when he retires.” Pro-Hastert forces are “lining up” behind state Rep. Tim Schmitz (R), while “conservative” state Sen. Chris Lauzen (R) “has long eyed the seat and is expected to throw his hat into the ring.” On the Dem side, locals are “very hopeful” that state Rep. Linda Chapa LaVia (D) will run (Capitol Fax newsletter, 11/30).

My understanding is that the GOP side of things is a bit more colorful than this simple description would indicate. Apparently, the “moderates” back Schmitz because they feel Lauzen is a right-wing nutcase. This story played out many times in 2006 – a radical wingnut beating a more reasonable candidate in the Republican primary – often to our advantage.

You had lunatic Bill “Brain Fade” Sali in ID-01; Doug Lamborn in CO-05,  whom outgoing GOP Rep. Joel Hefley refused to endorse; and crazy winger Randy Graf in AZ-08 who was all but abandoned by the national party. Yeah, we lost the first two, but we made them sweat bigtime – and Giffords utterly steamrolled in the last one.

There are other examples, of course, including reverse examples. For instance, we might have done better in NV-02 if the Club for Growth nutter had won the primary, and I think everyone on our side was rooting for Steven Laffey to beat Linc Chaffee (though we kicked ass in RI anyway). So here’s hoping that Chris Lauzen wins any special primary on the GOP side.

As for our team, I haven’t previously heard of Linda LaVia. Anyone know anything about her?

P.S. Who’s gonna call shotgun on editing the wiki page?