Five-term Iowa Senator Chuck Grassley’s seat is safe for him as long as he wants it. He’s never had a tough re-election challenge, and Democrats failed to field any candidate against him in 2004. [CORRECTION: Art Small did file against Grassley in 2004. The fact that I forgot he ran should tell you something about how much effort the Iowa Democratic Party put behind his candidacy.]
However, I think this race bears watching, because Grassley is out of favor with some of the Christian conservatives who gained more power at the Iowa GOP’s July 12 state convention. In fact, the Iowa Republican Party’s central committee broke with tradition and did not give Grassley a slot as a voting delegate to the GOP’s national convention.
Grassley’s staff downplayed the significance of that decision, since he will have access to the convention floor in St. Paul anyway as a member of Congress. However, many observers think evangelicals snubbed the senator because he has been investigating the activities of six tax-exempt “television-based ministries.”
Grassley seems to enjoy his job and his popularity in Iowa, but he was frustrated recently that the Senate passed a Medicare bill over Republican objections. According to Grassley, he and Democrat Max Baucus of Montana had worked out a different version of the Medicare bill that would have had bipartisan support.
If Democrats make big gains in the 2008 Senate elections, and relations between Grassley and Iowa Republicans continue to go downhill, this may be a seat to put on retirement watch. No big name is likely to challenge Grassley, but if he ever gets fed up enough to retire, this becomes a prime pickup opportunity for Democrats in 2010.
Possible Democratic contenders for an open seat include former Governor Tom Vilsack and current Governor Chet Culver, whose father John Culver held the seat before Grassley rode Ronald Reagan’s coattails into office in 1980.