The UNH poll (not one of our favorites) shows a major tightening in the NH Senate race. Even with a more GOP-friendly sample, Sununu has gained among independents. And Carol Shea-Porter
still trails Jeb Bradley; Paul Hodes is under 50%. And the batch of internal polls in House races isn’t all that great news either, even most of them would fill several salt shakers.
And Udall is in a tight race in Colorado, unable to pull away. The Rasmussen Congressional tracker has tightened from 48-34 Dem to just 45-36 in four weeks.
Has the energy issue given the GOP new life? I’m just wondering if the next Congress has fewer Democrats in it, not more.
Anyway, here are my top ten Senate rankings for late July, rated from most likely to flip to least likely:
1a. Virginia
1b. New Mexico
3. Alaska–Stevens in big trouble–will the GOP
find a replacement?
4. Colorado–As Obama goes, so goes this race.
5. New Hampshire–It’s not a four point race, but it’s getting there–Shaheen just may not have “it.”
6. Louisiana–Very close and may depend on black turnout.
7. Oregon–Merkley gaining, but so uncharismatic.
8. Mississippi B–Again, this could come down
to turnout.
9. Minnesota–Who’s right, Rasmussen or SUSA?
10. North Carolina–Dole a stiff, but Hagen really close both the money gap and the poll gap?