(update 7) Rolling Canadian Election Discussion

Since a few of us are into Canada, and what’s happening up there, I thought I’d set up a separate diary for the discussion….

and predictions….. for the 308 seats in the Canadian House of Commons. (Sorry, I’m not providing Tim Horton’s doughnuts for the winner.) Right now, I’m projecting (just an eyeball guess, I haven’t analyzed the 308 ridings, and I reserve the right to change this until voting starts to close in Atlantic Canada Monday — 8:30 PM newfie time — that’s 4 PM Pacific daylight time, if I’m translating correctly.)

update 5, part 1, revised projection, based on May 1 Nanos and Apr 30 Angus Reid. I’m surprised that the NDP hasn’t continued falling in the daily Nanos tracking, which suggests some recovery yesterday after Layton’s rapid response.)

update 7 — my final predix

Conservative: 142 145 144

Liberal: 75 57 48

NDP: 70 85 100

BQ: 20 15

Greens: 1

(I think Elizabeth May will pull off that district in and North of Victoria. If I’m eyeballing the map right, it’s the district that includes Buchart Gardens.)

Inspired by others, I’m also showing my splits by region:


BC           17/6/12/1 (green)

AL           27/0/1/0

Sas/Man 23/1/4/0

Ontario  60/25/21/0

Quebec  6/5/49/15 (BQ)

Atlantic   10/10/12/0

North      1/1/1/0

(end update 7)

One excellent resource for projections seems to be the guy I’m calling the Canadian Nate, aka Eric Grenier. He’s getting as much play up in Canada as Nate does here. He has daily analysis and a riding by riding projection, on his site, http://www.threehundredeight.b…

PROVISO: Everything in this diary is based on my personal finger to the air guesses. If you want to say that I’m talking out of my whatchamacallit, you’re free to do so, The intent of this diary is for fun — and perhaps for lessons learned that we can use here.

(update 5, part 2: Nanos poll released May 1)

Latest Nanos suggests that the NDP surge has stopped, and may be somewhat reversing but has stabilized at 37/23/31/5.5 (Cons/Lib/NDP/BQ), ref http://www.ctv.ca/mini/electio…  Normal provisos apply, the Nanos rolling 3 day poll has very small daily sample sizes (400 nationally in Canada), esp for the individual regions. (e.g. 50/day in BC, if memory serves)

Perhaps the NDP misstep on monetary policy is hurting. Perhaps the stupid Sun thing is throwing the NDP off message. It’s unclear which other parties are benefiting in each region.

Looks like a Cons/Lib bump in the Atlantic is a tight 3-way race, a small lib bump in the NDP is coming back to earth in Quebec, a small Cons lead Liberal recovery in Ontario, Cons dominance in the Praries seems enhanced, and stability in BC -(which suggests a drop in a day or two as good NDP numbers cycle out).-

end update 5

As long as the Conservatives stay below 39%, the key to preventing a Tory majority is a two or three party split in Ontario (which seems to be the case at the moment, but watch out if the gap between the Conservatives and whomever is in 2nd in that province gets above 10 points.)

(update 1 for other seat projections)

(update 2 for the new 308 projection)

308’s 4/30 seat projection (in his notes, Grenier is still anticipating more of a move from the PQ to the NDP.)



(end update 2)

EKOS’s 4/29 seat projection:


(Cons/Lib/NDP/BQ/random Quebec indie)

(end update 1)

update 3 – Angus Reid poll suggests NDP surge continues


(percentage) 37/19/33/6


No seat projections (that I see) from Angus, but they’re looking at a substantial Tory lead in Ontario, which would bring them close to a majority, with substantial NDP leads in the Atlantic and Quebec, along with a near tie in BC, which I think would get them closer to 90 seats.

Their poll was Apr 28-29, with 2100 “absolutely certain voters”

end update 3

(update 6: Latest EKOS Poll — near statistical tie between Conservatives and NDP!)

They do like 3000 voters in a rolling 3 day poll, so I’m using an extra significant digit.



(It’s actually closer among committed voters)


BC: 36.3/15.3/36.5

Alberta: still a Tory runaway

Sas/Man: 46.5/13.5/30.1

Ontario: 39.8/26.7/26.2

Quebec: 14.6/15.2/39.9/22.8

Atlantic: 24.4/28.3/41.3

EKOS doesn’t have their latest seat projection up yet, except to suggest that the NDP s/b within 20 seats of the Tories

Quebec is abandoning the Bloc Quebecois even further and the NDP could virtually sweep that province in a breathtaking development.

Sounds like EKOS is ready to project 60+ NDP seats in Quebec alone.

(end update 6)

update 4 — 308’s “best case scenarios” for the 3 parties

IL-13 Big News From Scott Harper

This week Scott Harpers‘s campaign in IL-13 was one of only five races nationally and the only one in Illinois to be upgraded to the Red to Blue Emerging Races list by the DCCC.

On top of that this week Harper was also endorsed by DAPAC (Democratic Advancement Political Action Committee). From their website: “DAPAC is a unique progressive political action committee that targets Republican held seats in the U.S. House and helps “new progressive” Democratic candidates run and win in those districts.” They only support progressives:  “All of our elected members of Congress from the last cycle have voted progressively on the issues. No other Democratic organization comes close to having a record as progressive as ours.”

All the smart, hard work Scott, his campaign manager Sarah Topy, her staff and the  volunteers flocking to the campaign are putting in to elect this great candidate to the House is really paying off.

Read on for how this race is shaping up to be one of our biggest House wins this cycle.

Scott is the first serious candidate Bush loving, do nothing, 10 year incumbent Judy Biggert has ever faced. On primary day, Super Tuesday he got 25,000 more votes in the district than Biggert and her wingnut primary challenger combined.

We’re seeing a sea change folks, in formerly Republican stronghold DuPage County which makes up about a third of the district, where Markos cut his eye teeth canvassing in his misspent youth, almost 133,000 voters took Democratic ballots to 109,000 Republicant. I’ve been here for most of my life and I can tell you that’s never happened before. And it’s not like Repubs had nothing to vote for, this was long before Limbaugh’s “Operation Chaos”, Biggert had her challenger, and there were several other contested primary races on their ballot. And let’s remember it was the last chance they had to vote for anyone but McCain to be their nominee. Romney dropped out two days later. I’m a precinct committeeman here and spent all day at my polling place. I know my voters and I know the Repubs. There were a lot of angry, fed up Republicans who felt betrayed crossing over. My Repub counterpart was a convention delegate for Romney and desperately tried to get them to vote for Mittens but he didn’t come close.

Keep in mind back in February hardly anyone knew who Scott was. He’s not a longtime politico, he’s never run for office before and if you googled his name last year chances are you’d come up with a reporter in Georgetown or a swimmer from Australia. I never heard of him before I met him at Yearly Kos in Chicago last year. On Super Tuesday he was just a name on the ballot with a “D” next to it. Now, thanks to Scott’s hard work, a lot of nights and weekends spent by volunteers, the grueling hours his staff puts in, and the money supporters have dug deep to contribute, a whole lot more voters not only know him but are excited about his candidacy.

The same can’t be said of Judy Biggert. Scott’s forced her to open a campaign HQ and for the first time ever she’s mounting a field campaign. She had to skip the Republican convention and the opportunity to hobnob with all those big money donors to march in Labor Day parades where Scott’s contingent more than doubled hers in all but one parade thanks to the Giant Ice Cream Cone disaster of 2008 in Naperville that kept many supporters from getting to Lemont in time.

By the end of the 2nd quarter on June 30 Harper outraised all four of Biggert’s previous challengers combined for their entire races. As a matter of fact he’s outraised her since the beginning of the year. But unfortunately that’s not enough.

Biggert has had a 10 year head start. She started with a huge warchest and can count on big banks she “oversees” (I use that term loosely) as the ranking member of the House Financial Services Subcommittee on Financial Institutions and Consumer Credit. BTW she got that plum assignment, the only subcommittee or committee she’s ever risen to chair or been ranking member of in her illustrious career in the House when her Republican predecessor dropped dead. You’d think with her district being right next door to Denny Hastert’s all those years she’d be a brighter star in the wingnut firmament by now, but not Judy Biggert.

But I digress, She not only has big bank bucks backing her, (say that 5 times fast), she joined the rest of those fools on the House floor this summer spouting “drill baby drill!”. Hilariously the only wingnut I found that wrote anything on the net about her speech into the darkness said without a mic she couldn’t hear a word she said even though the writer was in the third row! It’ll come as no surprise that while she gives lip service to alternative energy and actually votes sometimes for it’s R&D funding she fights tooth and nail to make sure the fossil fuel industry stays on top. And why wouldn’t she? She’s got hundreds of thousands invested in them and has taken almost $88,000 of their campaign cash at last count, and probably a lot more since her grandstand play in the darkened House last month.

Her daughter is a pharmaceutical lobbyist in DC so what’s her take from healthcare interests? A cool $230,000.

I could go on and on but you get the picture. Scott Harper is up against an old fashioned money con backed by the fattest of cats who want her to keep fighting for their privileged position, the future be damned.

We’re on the verge of winning this race but we need people like you and me and our small donations to help make up that cash difference. The money will go toward the advertising blitz in the last few weeks that’ll help us reach those who don’t know enough about Harper yet and put us over the top.

Please give what you can to Scott’s campaign through the Emerging Races ActBlue page, $50, $100 bucks, even $5 would be a big help.  

Can you spare half an hour tomorrow?

Tomorrow Saturday July 26 marks the beginning of the 100 Days to Victory campaign. I’m calling on anybody and everybody across the country to help Scott Harper in IL-13 by phonebanking for half an hour calling just 5 people from a list of names and numbers and a script we’ll send you via email or fax. This is an excellent opportunity for newbies to get their feet wet volunteering for a campaign and you don’t have to be anywhere near Illinois to participate. You don’t need any campaign experience to help. If you know how to use a telephone that’s good enough. Of course if you’re an experienced activist who wants to do more you can make as many calls as you want and we’ll also be canvassing and phonebanking from many locations across the district. If you’re close by campaign HQ in Naperville we’re meeting at 1pm for a group photograph. We’re gonna have with free pizza, so bring the kids and we’ll have a great time.  

So read on for details about why you should spend a little time tomorrow and links to how you can help.  

We’ll be identifying voters which means we’re simply asking them a few questions to discern their political leanings. There’s no persuasion involved, we’re not “selling” the candidate and most folks are more than happy to answer our questions.

Now why should you get involved in this race? Well first of all I met Scott at Yearly Kos last summer. He was looking to get involved in politics after a successful business and academic career and he figured there was no better place to start. I invited him to our local township Dem meeting where our leadership recruited him to run in the 13th. Scott is a smart dedicated Democrat with a lot of real world experience who will help President Obama end the occupation of Iraq and rebuild our country. You can look up more of his bio and positions here.

Harper outraised 10 year incumbent, and Bush favorite Judy Biggert in the second quarter. He’s also already outraised her four previous Dem challengers combined and beat her and her even more wingnuttery primary challenger (is wingnuttery a word? if not I just coined it, so there Colbert) together in the primary by 25,000 votes on Super Tuesday. CQ, a little behind the times imo has just uprated this seat from “safe repub” to “repub favored”. From what I’ve seen and heard canvassing and phonebanking since March it’s a toss up right now. With Obama and Durbin at the top of the ticket I think we’re have a better than even chance. The point is, this is no quixotic campaign, we’re doing what it takes to win this race, not just show.  

Two weeks ago on July 13th Harper’s campaign organized the biggest canvassing event Dems have ever seen in IL-13. In July no less. This was a tremendous effort, we put a lot into it, phonebanking for weeks on end to get volunteers to give up a Saturday in midsummer to come out and canvass with us.

The poor field manager Rich who we’ve been working like a sled dog finally got some time off afterward and spent a long weekend with his buds at the Maryland shore burning off a few brain cells and recharging his batteries. I’m happy to report he’s back at work, sending out emails and holding two phone conversations at once while trying to get the printer working with his toes. Well ok, maybe that’s an exaggeration but not much of one. Everybody at the HQ is working their butts off. And Rich hasn’t walked into a wall even once since he came back so that’s a real positive development. So why do are we doing this again so soon you may ask? Aren’t we running the risk of burning ourselves out before the playoffs start?

Well in case you haven’t heard the DCCC has announced a contest, the 100 Days to Victory Challenge, inspired I’d like to think by our success a couple weeks ago, calling on all Dem House challengers to see who can attract the most volunteers to their campaign for one day: tomorrow.

The winner gets a email blast to the 3 million people on DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen’s email list and a whole a lot of respect (not to mention name rec) from Democrats all across the country.

So here we go again, all hands of deck, we’re gearing up again. If you live in a safe Dem district or a red district that’s hopeless this is one race where you can make a real difference. Wherever you are, please sign up today. Scroll down to the bottom of the link below. If you give us your name, email address and zipcode and we’ll get back to you tomorrow with a script and five names to call. Like I said this shouldn’t take more than half an hour of your time and you’d be helping one of our best Dem House challengers with a great shot at turning a longstanding Repub district blue. Here’s the link.