Tag: ME-Sen

(Partially cross-posted from My Left Nutmeg.)

This is good stuff. Tom Allen is hanging Joe Lieberman around Susan Collins’ neck:

Joe knows exactly what he’s doing in supporting Collins: attempting to retain any shred of his own continued relevance by keeping the Democratic majority in the Senate as slim as possible in what is looking, once again, like a very tough cycle for GOP incumbents across the board.

And Allen knows exactly what he’s doing in tying Collins to Joe: making sure that this “moderate” Republican owns the Bush-Cheney-Lieberman war that she’s done nothing to oppose (see this NPR report on the Allen campaign this weekend), and that the Democratic Party stays strong and united against the Lieberman-GOP nexus. It’s exactly the approach that Maine Dems hinted at when they “welcomed” news of Joe’s endorsement of Collins back in April.

Rep. Tom Allen of Maine’s 1st District has made it official: he’s filed his papers to challenge Republican Senator Susan Collins.  Check out his video message and his new website here.

From a press statement:

Portland, Maine—Maine Congressman Tom Allen today filed A Statement of Candidacy form with the Secretary of the Senate to become a candidate for the United States Senate in 2008.  His campaign simultaneously launched a new website (http://www.tomallen.org) that includes a digital video statement from Congressman Allen about today’s filing.  In the statement, Allen says that he will conduct an announcement tour of the state when Congress adjourns for Memorial Day.  He said he is looking forward to a substantive debate on the issues and that he believes voters will see a clear contrast between his priorities and record and those of the incumbent. 

“Maine people tell me that they want our involvement in the Iraq War- the worst foreign policy mistake in our nation’s history -to end,” Congressman Allen says in the video announcement.  “From the beginning, when President Bush rushed to invade Iraq, Susan Collins has supported his misguided policy.  I fought to stop it.  She voted for the Iraq War.  I voted against it.  Susan Collins continues to vote with the Republicans against a timetable to end the War in Iraq.  I voted for a responsible change of course to bring our troops safely home.”

Republicans will likely point to Republican Sen. Olympia Snowe’s overwhelming victory last year in a Democratic wave year, but, simply put: Collins is no Snowe, and Allen is certainly no Jean Hay Bright.  On top of that, Snowe’s continued capitulation to the out-of-control Republican leadership in the U.S. Senate is not going to win her any accolades in her home state, especially as more and more local media outlets are turning against the Bush/Collins position on Iraq.

Race Tracker: ME-Sen

Earlier in the day, Markos billed the likely matchup between Maine’s Rep. Tom Allen (D) and Susan Collins (R) for control of her Senate seat in 2008 as a “battle of the titans”, which leads me to ask: does Allen really have what it takes to win this thing?

Now, I’m not trying to say that Allen is a weak candidate.  In a state with only two House districts, it’s clear that Allen would be a fairly serious threat to an entrenched Collins.  But with a Senator as popular as Collins (who enjoys a whopping 73% approval last November, according to the latest SUSA tracking poll in November), Allen will have to execute a perfect campaign in order to win.

Let’s check his track record as of late.  Here’s how he fared in 2006, according to CNN:

Allen (D): 61
Curley (R): 31
Kamilewicz (I): 8

And here’s his 2004 performance:

Allen (D): 60
Summers (R): 40

Allen’s district has a PVI of D+6.2.  His House colleague, Democrat Mike Michaud, occupies a seat that’s a shade less Democratic at D+3.5.  In his sophomore re-election bid in 2004, he won by a margin of 58-39, a margin very similar to Allen’s, who had been serving since 1998 by this point.  In 2006, Michaud crushed his Republican opponent by a 70-30 margin.

Now, there are a lot of dynamics left unstated here: Kamilewicz, his 2006 third-party opponent, ran a peace campaign that probably cut into his left flank, although it only cost a mere $42,000.  And while Allen enjoyed a 4-1 spending advantage over Republican Darlene Curley in 2006, he didn’t exactly saturate the market with his total expenditures of $650,000.  But the point I’m trying to make is this: winning with 60%, especially in a Democratic year such as 2006, doesn’t leave me feeling overwhelmed.

Does anyone have a better sense as to why Allen hasn’t been able to peak above 60% since 2002?

Who do you want to see run for Senate in 2008? That’s what we’re talking about in this post.

This is the second Senate recruitment open thread here on Swing State Project (the first one was here, and we saw all kinds of great suggestions). We’re going in alphabetical order, five GOP-held seats at a time. Links are to the Race Tracker wiki, and incumbents are in parens:

6) Kansas (Pat Roberts)

7) Kentucky (Mitch McConnell)

8) Maine (Susan Collins)

9) Minnesota (Norm Coleman)

10) Mississippi (Thad Cochran)

As I said the first time:

Don’t limit yourself to politicians. Businesspeople, community leaders, activists – even athletes or celebrities (think Heath Shuler or Al Franken) – are all fair game. Even seemingly outlandish suggestions are welcome. Would you have ever predicted that the guitarist from Orleans would now be a Congressman-elect?

However, please do limit yourself to the five races listed in this post. I know everyone is eager to talk about the whole slate of races we’ve got lined up, but I promise that we’ll get to each batch separately. I think we can have a more productive discussion, though, if we stay focused and only deal with a chunk of races at time.

So, what’ve you got?