Tag: Jay Love

• SC-Gov: You’ve probably already heard, but Mark Sanford finally turned up today, returning not from the Appalachian Trail but freakin’ Argentina, where apparently he decided to go for a spur-of-the-moment visit. Prepare a industrial-sized garbage bag full of popcorn for his 2 pm EDT press conference. [UPDATE: Well, in case you have a computer that only gets SSP and no other news outlets, it turns out that Sanford was in Argentina to break off an affair with an Argentinian woman he’d met via e-mail. He’s very sorry. He’s also resigning as head of the RGA.]

• AR-Sen: The Republican field of contenders to take on Blanche Lincoln just keeps getting bigger, and also keeps becoming more and more amateur-hour. Searcy “businessman” Fred Ramey entered the race (he owns a real estate investment company, which is apparently so successful that he also is a driver for Federal Express). Two other unknowns — retired Army colonel Conrad Reynolds and financial advisor Buddy Rogers — have also come forward to say they’re considering the race.

• FL-Sen: Mike Huckabee officially endorsed former state House speaker Marco Rubio in the GOP Senate primary today (although he had already made his feelings clear in an earlier e-mail to supporters touting Rubio). Seeking to grab the movement-conservative flag as he looks to take advantage of the growing GOP schism as he heads toward 2012, he also tore into the NRSC, who held a big fundraiser for Charlie Crist on Monday attended by 15 GOP Senators. Says Huck: “The establishment Republicans have made this endorsement for the same reason that they’re in so much trouble. They go out there and support stuff like TARP bills and stimulus packages, pork-barrel spending and huge debt, and they wring their hands and act like, ‘This is not good, but we don’t have a choice.'”

• KY-Sen: AG Jack Conway, who’s facing off against Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo in the Dem Senate primary, has the endorsement of the state’s entire Democratic U.S. House delegation (all two of them). Ben Chandler and John Yarmuth will both be on hand today for a big Washington DC fundraiser for Conway.

• TX-Sen (pdf): Texas Lyceum released a wide-ranging poll of Texans; one question they asked was who people were supporting in the event of a special election for the Senate. Fully 71% were undecided on this as-yet-non-existent race, but of the eight candidates (all asked together, rather than grouped by party), Democratic Houston mayor Bill White had the most support, at 9%. Other Dem contender John Sharp was at 2%; the top GOPers, AG Greg Abbott and LG David Dewhurst, each were at 4%. (They also polled the gubernatorial primary, finding Gov. Rick Perry beating Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison 33-21.)

• AK-Gov: Rumblings seem greater in the last few days that Sarah Palin is unlikely to run for a second term as Alaska governor, so that she can focus on a 2012 bid (and, in light of her declining statewide approvals, avoid the possibility of a career-ending loss in the governor’s election). (Potential opponent Andrew Halcro sums it up neatly: “If you’re Palin, once you’ve flown first class, you don’t go back to coach.”) With a recent Pew poll finding that Palin is the nation’s most popular Republican (key: among Republicans), striking while the iron is hot for 2012 makes sense. The DGA is certainly noticing, and they’re now touting Alaska as one of their four big pickup opportunities in a new fundraising e-mail (along with Florida, Georgia, and Minnesota… which might suggest they think California and Hawaii are in the bag).

• IL-Gov: A whole lot of longshots are piling up in the GOP column in the Illinois governor’s race, which now includes political consultant and TV commentator Dan Proft. Six other GOPers, none of whom seem known statewide, are already in the hunt.

• TX-Gov: State senator Leticia Van de Putte, whose name had cropped up a lot in connection with the Democratic nomination for Governor in recent weeks, released a statement yesterday saying she won’t run. Interestingly, instead of endorsing Tom Schieffer — whose Democratic credentials are kind of iffy — she suggested that fellow state Senator Kirk Watson should run instead.

• AL-02: No time for Congress, Dr. Love! Republican State Rep. and 2008 losing candidate Jay Love decided against a rematch with freshman Rep. Bobby Bright. The exit of Love, who barely lost in this R+16 district last time, means that Montgomery city councilor Martha Roby may escape a noxious primary (the GOP’s main problem last time).

• CA-11: Two Republican members of the Board of Supervisors of San Joaquin County (where almost half of this R+1 district’s votes are located) endorsed Democratic Rep. Jerry McNerney yesterday, pleased with his constituent services and work to bring a VA hospital to the area.

• CA-50: We’re looking at a three-way Democratic primary in this R+3 district in northern San Diego county. Solana Beach city councilor Dave Roberts (a former Brian Bilbray supporter) is considering the race and will decide by July whether to jump in. He’d bring one advantage to his race against two-time candidate Francine Busby and attorney Tracy Emblem: he’s actually been elected to something.

• PA-06: PA2010’s Dan Hirschhorn observes that with a series of top-tier hires, Doug Pike is looking more and more like he’ll have the Dem field to himself. Pike has hired Neil Oxman’s Campaign Group to do his media, who’ve worked not only for Gov. Ed Rendell but also for former Senate candidate Joe Torsella and ’02 candidate Dan Wofford — both of whom have had their names tossed around as the most likely other people to run in PA-06. I’d initially assumed the never-before-elected journalist was something of a placeholder until someone higher on the food chain got in the race, but with these hires and the DCCC constantly touting him, it seems clear that Pike is impressing the right people.

• PA-15: Good news out of the Lehigh Valley: Bethlehem mayor John Callahan, who a few months ago had rebuffed requests that he run against Rep. Charlie Dent, may have had a change of heart. Callahan has approached Democratic party leaders about the race, and is now reportedly “seriously considering” running in this D+2 district.

• TN-03: Attorney and radio talk show host Chuck Fleischmann will formally announce his entry into the GOP primary field today in the Chattanooga-based R+13 3rd. Bradley Co. Sheriff Tim Gobble is already running, and former GOP state chair Robin Smith looks like she’ll get in, too.

• NY-St. Sen.: As if the standoff over control of the New York State Senate, tied 31-31, couldn’t get any more embarrassing, yesterday both parties held dueling special sessions… at the same time, in the same room, shouting to be heard over each other, with each side claiming to pass its own bills. Negotations to create a power-sharing arrangement have more or less collapsed.

• Voting Rights: Oregon just became the fourth state to allow online voter registration, joining Washington, California, and Arizona. One less reason to have to get up from behind your computer.

• LA-Sen: David Vitter may get a serious primary challenger after all (Family Research Council honcho Tony Perkins and ex-Rep. John Cooksey have declined, and SoS Jay Dardenne has been laying low). It’s someone we haven’t seen in a while, though: former state Elections commissioner Suzanne Haik Terrell, who let her interest be known last week. Terrell’s last appearance in the spotlight was the 2002 Senate race, where she lost narrowly to Mary Landrieu. Terrell is the only Republican woman to have ever held office in Louisiana.

• NY-Sen-B: Like a giant game of Whack-a-mole, Kirsten Gillibrand jammed a couple potential primary challengers back into their holes last week, but now a new one popped up: Rep. Jose Serrano. The Bronx-based Serrano might be able to make a lot of hay out of the immigration issue, but he may not have the cash to make a race of it (although as an Appropriations cardinal, he’s well-connected). Meanwhile, Gillibrand nailed down endorsements from three other Reps. — John Hall, Mike Arcuri, and Scott Murphy — as well as Nassau County Dem party chair Jay Jacobs (important because he has a lot of sway over Rep. Carolyn McCarthy).

• PA-Sen: Roll Call tried to pin down the Democratic House members from Pennsylvania on whether or not they’d endorse Arlen Specter in a potential Democratic primary with Rep. Joe Sestak. Interestingly, PA’s most liberal Dem, Chaka Fattah, was probably the most enthusiastic and unconditional endorser of Specter, while its most conservative Dem, Jason Altmire, was most reluctant to offer an endorsement one way or the other, although more out of admiration for Sestak than on ideological grounds. Tim Holden also endorsed Specter and Bob Brady came as close as possible to it, while Patrick Murphy took a “wait and see” attitude and the others simply punted the question.

• AR-Sen: State Senator Kim Hendren (having recently shot himself in the foot by calling Charles Schumer “that Jew”) is now vacillating and may not run in the GOP Senate primary after all, despite having announced his candidacy.

• IL-Sen: Here’s some confirmation on what we speculated last week: Rep. Mark Kirk isn’t lost in space; he’s just deferring any decisions on the Senate race because he’s waiting to see what AG Lisa Madigan does. He reportedly won’t run for Senate if Madigan does.

• FL-Gov: Ag Commissioner Charles Bronson will announce today that he won’t run for the open governor’s seat, leaving an unimpeded path to the GOP nomination for AG Bill McCollum. Bronson is term-limited out of his job in 2010 and looking to move up, but couldn’t buck the pressure from state chair Jim Greer — I mean, the guy doesn’t have a Death Wish.

• CO-Gov: Ex-Rep. Scott McInnis officially filed yesterday to enter the Colorado governor’s race, amidst sniping that he started soliciting funds before filing his campaign paperwork. State Senate minority leader Josh Penry also launched into an oblique attack on McInnis, suggesting he might be interested in a primary battle.

• CA-Gov: Dianne Feinstein, occasionally rumored to be interested in what has to be the least desirable job in America (California governor), has said that she “might” run for governor next year, depending on her assessment of the other candidates’ plans for dealing with California’s seemingly perpetual budget crisis. Polls that have included Feinstein have shown her dominating the race if she got in.

• IL-13: 71-year-old Rep. Judy Biggert just confirmed that she’ll be running for re-election in 2010, despite a return engagement with Scott Harper, who held her to 54%, and the district’s shift to only R+1. (Of course, her inclusion in the first round of 10 in the NRCC’s Patriots program Tuesday showed her hand already.)

• AL-02: Republicans have at least one candidate lined up to go against Rep. Bobby Bright as he seeks his first re-election in this R+16 district: 32-year-old Montgomery city councilor and attorney Martha Roby. GOP State Rep. Jay Love, who narrowly lost to Bright last time, may also try again.

• MI-13: Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick, who narrowly won a 3-way primary in 2008, may have to face off against both of the same challengers again in 2010: state Sen. Martha Scott and former state Rep. Mary Waters. Former interim mayor Ken Cockrel also is mentioned as interested. Kilpatrick may be less vulnerable in 2010, though, as the brouhaha surrounding her son (former mayor Kwame Kilpatrick) recedes in the distance.

• Maps: Here’s another interesting map for the geography nerds out there. It’s a map of which party controls all the state House seats throughout the South. (It’s a lot bluer than you might initially think.)

• NRSC/NRCC: The NRSC and NRCC announced yesterday that Alaska governor Sarah Palin would headline their fundraising dinner in June, which is a big ‘get’ since she couldn’t be bothered to come out all the way to DC for CPAC. The Anchorage Daily News then reported that Palin wouldn’t be attending after all. Turns out that one hand of PalinCo doesn’t know what the other is doing… the appearance was arranged through SarahPAC, while the actual governor’s office had no idea this was happening. The NRCC and NRSC still say “that to their knowledge” she’s still coming.

• SC-01, SC-02: Linda Ketner is sounding a little iffy about a rematch against Henry Brown, worried about diminished African-American turnout in an off-year election (and also the costs; even wealthy philanthropists get hit by the recession). Former state rep. Mike Barber and state rep. Leon Stavrinakis are possibilities if she demurs. Next door, though, Iraq vet Rob Miller has begun fundraising for a rematch against Joe Wilson.

• OR-04: Peter DeFazio may get his first substantive challenger in ages; the GOP is recruiting Springfield (the district’s 2nd largest city) mayor Joe Quimby Sid Leiken to run. While DeFazio would still be a heavy favorite in such a race, he’s been mentioned frequently as a potential 2010 gubernatorial candidate, and in this D+0 district the GOP could be competitive with an open seat.

• VA-02, VA-05, VA-11: Southern Political Report takes a look at potential challengers to the three new Virginia freshmen. In VA-02, the only Republican in the race so far is Chuck Smith, an African-American, former chair of the Virginia Beach GOP, and an ex-Navy JAG, although moderate state senator Ken Stolle and Virginia Beach mayor Will Sessoms are eyeing the race. In VA-11, wealthy businessman Keith Fimian is interested in a rematch, but so is Fairfax County Supervisor Pat Herrity, who recently narrowly lost the special election to replace Gerry Connolly as chairman of the Fairfax County Board.

• CT-Sen: Robbie Simmons may not have the GOP field to himself in his bid to unseat Chris Dodd: CT GOP Chairman Chris Healy tells The Hill that former Ireland Ambassador Tom Foley and state Sen. Sam Caligiuri will also run in the Republican primary. (J)

• AL-02: Add another name to the retread watch — state Rep. Jay Love says he’s considering challenging frosh Dem Rep. Bobby Bright in a rematch next year. Another name tossed around as a potential candidate for the GOP is none other than George Wallace, Jr., who lost an open seat race in this very same district as a Democrat in 1992 to Terry Everett. (J)

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/20-22, likely voters):

Bobby Bright (D): 45

Jay Love (R): 47

(MoE: ±5%)

Yesterday we highlighted a DCCC poll that had Bright up 50-43, which was encouraging to see after we’ve been seeing Bright losing steam on both the polling (his own internal had him up by only 1) and fundraising fronts.

Today, however, in their first poll of this race, Research 2000 shows a small edge for Jay Love, 47-45. Encouragingly, the sample give shows Bright picking up 14% of Republicans as well as 89% of Democrats, while Love picks up only 7% of Democrats and only 74% of Republicans. Unfortunately, the sample contains a lot more Republicans than Democrats (48% to 31%), which is also reflected in its presidential numbers (McCain leads in AL-02 by 56-39, although that’s still a big improvement from this district’s 67-33 performance in 2004).

UPDATE (James L.): Well, here’s one thing we missed about this poll, which is a huge red flag — the sample is only 17% African-American. This district is 30% black according to the most recent figures, and even Anzalone-Liszt pegs the black vote at a “conservative” (their words) 25%. If you adjust the sample accordingly, Bright would be leading.

With Democrat Bobby Bright hemorrhaging support in his own polling and badly lagging in the fundraising race against Republican Jay Love, this comes as an extremely timely boost:

The fallout from a brutal Republican Congressional primary race continued Monday when Republican state senator Harri Anne Smith endorsed Democratic Congressional candidate Bobby Bright.

Smith batted current Republican Congressional candidate Jay Love in the 2nd Congressional District Republican Primary race earlier this year, and said Love lied about her during the campaign.

“Jay Love lied about my record just to further his own agenda and now he’s lying about Bobby Bright,” Smith said.

Smith made the announcement Monday morning in Dothan at Wiregrass Veterans Park as part of Bright’s “America First Truck Tour.”

“It is time that elected officials put America’s agenda first and the people’s agenda first,” Bright said. “It’s time to put party labels in the back seat.”

This is the second big GOP endorsement for Bright in the Wiregrass area (Dothan Mayor Pat Thomas was the first), and it couldn’t have come at a better time. It’s hard to say how many supporters she’ll deliver Bright’s way, but it is a good sign that Jay Love is still, well, unloved in some Republican circles.

Doc’s Political Parlor has more.

Jay Love must be fuming. As Danny over at Doc’s Political Parlor reports, the Republican mayor of Dothan, the heavily conservative population anchor of the Wiregrass portion of the southeastern corner of the district, has given his endorsement to Democrat Bobby Bright:

Republican Dothan Mayor Pat Thomas crossed the aisle today to endorse Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright’s Democratic bid for the 2nd Congressional District seat. Thomas is the John McCain campaign’s Mayoral Chair for the state of Alabama, has served on the Republican Executive Committee of Houston County, and says that he has never voted for a Democrat on a national level. Thomas was also a member of the Wiregrass’s “unofficial Congressional Selection Committee” that united early behind the candidacy of Republican state Sen. Harri Anne Smith in an effort to ensure that the next Representative from AL-02 was from the Wiregrass.

Political Parlor has the full text of the endorsement. At a population of 85,000 and the base of state Sen. Harri Anne Smith, whom Love defeated in a nasty primary, Bright’s performance in Dothan will be crucial for his chances of victory this November. This is huge.

Anzalone-Liszt for Bobby Bright (8/3-6, likely voters):

Bobby Bright (D): 50

Jay Love (R): 40

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Impressive numbers for Bobby Bright, especially when you consider the district’s generic ballot (45R-33D) and partisan self-identification (44R-36D). And while the primary gave Jay Lovin’ a huge boost in name recognition (74%), Bright’s name ID is only five points higher (79%), throwing a bit of sand on the assumption that Love would pull ahead as soon as he increased his profile in the district.

Bright’s personal favorability is very high in the district, with 63% rating him favorably and only 16% unfavorably. Additionally, his job approval ratings as mayor of Montgomery are even higher: 68-9.

By a 3-to-1 margin, voters say that Love is running a negative campaign. So while his primary did boost his numbers somewhat, he’s still dealing with a bit of a hangover from its nasty tone.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican, but we’re liking what we see here today.

(H/T: Political Parlor)

UPDATE: Jay Lovin’ has released his own internal poll. McLaughlin & Associates (7/21-22, likely voters):

Bobby Bright (D): 39

Jay Love (R-inc): 41

(MoE: ±5.7%)

Well, both camps agree on one thing; as they say in tennis “40 Love”. (H/T: Andy Dufresne)