Tag: KS-04

• FL-Sen: Charlie Crist barely survived another county-level GOP censure vote, this time in heavily-Democratic Palm Beach County, where one would expect the GOP faithful to be Chamber of Commerce types and not run-of-the-mill teabagging rageaholics. The censure bid failed on a 65-65 tie. The party member who led the bid referred to Crist as “nothing more than Arlen Specter with a tan.”

• NV-Sen: Rep. Dean Heller, who recently declined to run for Senate, laid his cards on the table, confirming what many suspected, that the John Ensign scandal contributed to Heller’s decision not to run against Harry Reid. Any Ensign support for Heller would have been a distraction rather than an asset. In the same interview, Heller also encouraged Ensign to answer remaining questions about payoffs to the former staffer he had the affair with. (One other interesting question raised here… does Heller calling out Ensign mean Heller is trying to help push Ensign out the door and then run for the open Senate seat in 2012? Because that would mean Heller wouldn’t run in the primary against Jim Gibbons in 2010, making it likelier that Gibbons survives the primary — and I know Democrats would rather face Gibbons than Heller in the governor’s race.)

Also, CQ is reporting that, bolstered by an internal poll giving her a small edge over Harry Reid (and also by Heller’s decision to stand down), state GOP party chair Sue Lowden is getting more interested in making the race, and she’s testing the fundraising waters.

• PA-Gov: Rep. Jim Gerlach got another endorsement from Pennsylvania’s GOP House delegation, Bill Shuster from PA-05 (coming on the heels of endorsements from Todd Platts and ex-Rep. Phil English). Of course, House colleagues tend to stick together, and their endorsements are of questionable value since they generally don’t bring local machines along with them, but these endorsements are at least interesting to the extent that they’re coming from the rural, most conservative parts of the “T,” not from Gerlach’s moderate southeastern suburban base.

• VA-Gov: There’s been some shuffling of personnel on the Creigh Deeds campaign, which has seemed kind of listless for the last month. Larry Sabato reported that campaign manager Joe Abbey, who engineered the primary victory, had been shoved over in favor of Mark Warner ally Monica Dixon. Dixon, however, says that Abbey’s still in charge but that she and some other new additions are there to bolster the ranks.

• KS-04: One more random wealthy Republican to add to the ever-expanding field in the open seat race in the Wichita-based 4th: oilman Willis “Wink” Hartman. State Sen. Dick Kelsey and RNC member Mike Pompeo are considered the GOP frontrunners.

• NY-23: GOP nominee for the special election, Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava, had temporarily put her campaign on hold to tend to her father, who is recovering from heart surgery. Without a John McHugh Senate confirmation or a set election date, though, this isn’t likely to be much of a setback. (Stuart Rothenberg, as part of a good overview of the race, says it’s likely it’ll be held on Election Day in November, meaning that the significance of whatever happens may be subsumed by NJ-Gov and VA-Gov.)

• OH-SoS: The Secretary of State field for the Democrats may keep growing, with a potential new entrant with an impressive resume. Paul Gains is the Prosecutor in Mahoning County (where Youngstown is); he says he’s leaning toward the race. (His biggest claim to fame is surviving a mob hit upon first taking office in 1996.) Ohio SoS is one of the most important lower-tier statewide offices in the country, given the state’s narrow divide and the SoS’s role on the legislative apportionment board. Franklin Co. Commissioner Marilyn Brown and State Rep. Jennifer Garrison are also likely to run for the Dems.

• AR-Sen: Here’s a tea leaf that state Sen. Gilbert Baker may be interested after all in getting into the Senate race: he issued a press release today going after Democratic health care reform and Blanche Lincoln in particular. He’d probably be the favorite to win the GOP nomination if he got in, if only by virtue of the rest of the field being gaffe-prone wackos.

• CT-Sen: Best wishes to Chris Dodd, who has been diagnosed with early-stage prostate cancer and will undergo surgery over the August recess. He said he’ll be back at work after several weeks of recuperation at home, and that he still plans to run for re-election in 2010.

• IL-Sen: Add one more GOP Twitter fail to the increasingly long-list. Rep. Mark Kirk, who is also a Naval Reservist, tweeted his location (the National Military Command Center) while on duty. The DoD is now investigating, as it’s a problem on two fronts: one, the prohibition against using the media to give away your position, and two, the prohibition against, while on military service, updating a website established prior to the beginning of service. Complicating the legal question even further: it may have been a staffer tweeting on Kirk’s behalf. Because, y’know, it’s so hard to think up 140 characters of content on your own.

• NY-Sen-B: The confusion over the Carolyn Maloney campaign has reached epic proportions. Yesterday, CQ reported that Maloney had no fixed timeline for officially getting into the Senate primary, but that early August seemed likely. But today, Politico’s Glenn Thrush is reporting that Maloney is “leaning heavily against” making the race at all, according to several prominent Dems.

• ND-Sen: The NRSC is flogging a new internal poll which claims Gov. John Hoeven has a 53-36 lead over Sen. Byron Dorgan. Both men are very popular, with Hoeven with an 86% approval and Dorgan with a 69% approval. A public poll from R2K in February found the numbers almost exactly reversed, with Dorgan beating Hoeven 57-35… but Hoeven hasn’t taken any public steps to get into the race, so we may never find out who’s right.

• AK-Gov: Local pollster Hays Research looked at in-state approvals for Alaska’s incoming and outgoing governors, and found Sarah Palin leaving in net negative territory: 47/48. Sean Parnell looks bulletproof for the moment, at 67/8, but, having been in office for less than a week, hasn’t had the chance to screw anything up yet.

• TX-Gov: A bit more egg on the Kay Bailey Hutchison campaign’s face today, as the Austin American-Statesman found that her website had over 2,200 hidden phrases on it designed to steer traffic, including “rick perry gay.” (This wasn’t mere meta-tagging, but blind keywords invisibly put into the site’s code, something of a search engine-optimization no-no.) A spokesperson said they’d remove “rick perry gay,” although it sounds like the other 2,199 phrases stay.

• KS-04: Businessman Jim Anderson got into the overflowing GOP field in KS-04 to replace retiring Rep. Todd Tiahrt. He seems like he might get a little lost in the shuffle, in a field that already includes local GOP heavyweights RNC committeman Mike Pompeo and state Sen. Dick Kelsey, along with state Sen. Jean Schodorf, who recently began exploring the race.

• MO-04: Ike Skelton, who’s held down the fort for Dems in dark-red central Missouri since time immemorial, has drawn a more serious opponent than usual (not hard, since his usual opponents are nobodies or no one at all). Vicky Hartzler is a former state Rep. who has also written a book called “Running God’s Way,” apparently a how-to guide to campaigning for Christian right candidates. CQ also mentions several other still-in-office legislators who could also take on the 77-year-old Skelton (especially if he hears the siren song of retirement): state Rep. Tom Self and state Sen. Bill Stouffer.

• DCCC: The DCCC has responded with its own ad offensive on the health care front, a day after the RNC targeted 60 districts. The DCCC’s radio buy and robo-call package is a bit more targeted, focusing on 8 GOPers (not coincidentally, maybe their 8 most vulnerable incumbents running in 2010): Michele Bachmann, Joseph Cao, Charlie Dent, Dan Lungren, Thad McCotter, Erik Paulsen, Dave Reichert, and Pat Tiberi.

• Where Are They Now?: Former GOP Rep. Anne Northup found her way into the Obama administration, as a commissioner on the Consumer Product Safety Commission. This initially seems very odd — she already lost KY-03, so there’s no sense in appointing her to facilitate a Dem pickup — but it’s because the Senate GOP leader has a say in picking a Republican for one of the five commissioners, and Mitch McConnell opted to give the job to his long-time protege, who, having lost three races in a row, is probably finished with electoral politics.

It appears that Democrats have landed a pretty solid candidate for the open seat that GOP Rep. Todd Tiahrt’s leaving behind in his pursuit of Sam Brownback’s Senate seat. From the Wichita Eagle:

State Rep. Raj Goyle, D-Wichita, announced today that he will run for the 4th Congressional District seat being vacated by Rep. Todd Tiahrt, R-Goddard.

In a written statement, Goyle said, “I am running because too many Kansas families and businesses are struggling right now. […]

The second-term state representative’s interest in the race had been known for months. Party leaders said they were delighted that he is now formally in.

“He is the most talented person I know to run for this job, bar none,” said John Carmichael, 4th District chairman for the Democratic Party. “Not only because he is a good campaigner, but because he is a bright legislator.”

Back in January, SSP diarist kansasjackass had more on Goyle’s profile:

State Rep. Raj Goyle shocked the Kansas political establishment when he beat incumbent Republican State Rep. Bonnie Huy in 2006, and has since made a name for himself as an able and ambitious member of the state legislature.  As a testament to the quality of a candidate he is, in his reliably Republican district his original election in 2006 wasn’t that close (56%-44%) and his re-election in 2008 was a blow-out: He won 67% of the vote.

While I can’t say much about the history of Goyle’s Wichita-based legislative district (HD87), it narrowly voted for McCain over Obama by a 51-48 margin in 2008 according to the skunkworks down at SSP Labs. However, the 4th CD itself is much more heavily R; McCain romped by a 58-40 margin here, while Bush posted an even-better 64-34 result in 2004. No Democrat has held this seat since Dan Glickman was turfed in 1994.

Goyle will have to prove himself to be an exceptionally talented fundraiser and campaigner in order to turn this into a real race, but his electoral track record is impressive enough to suggest that he could make this a district worth keeping an eye on.

RaceTracker: KS-04

• NY-20 (pdf): Last evening’s total from the BoE had Scott Murphy leading Jim Tedisco by 401. With his chances approaching the “statistically impossible” realm, we may reportedly see a Tedisco concession today.

• MN-Sen: Norm Coleman could take a few pointers from Jim Tedisco. The five justices of the Minnesota Supreme Court who’ll hear the election contest (two justices who’ve been actively involved in the count recused themselves) announced that their expedited hearing isn’t all that expedited: it’ll happen on June 1, to give the parties adequate time to file briefs and replies. In the meantime, that gives Minnesotans more than one more month with just one senator.

• GA-Gov, GA-03: Just one day after his name was suddenly floated for GA-Gov, Rep. Lynn Westmoreland flushed that idea, saying he’ll stay in the House.

• PA-Gov: Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato was bandied about as the early front-runner for the Democratic nomination for the open governor’s race in 2010, but we’ve heard nary a peep from him on the matter. Apparently, he is in fact interested, as he says he’s “laying the groundwork” and expects a formal announcement later in the year.

• TN-Gov: Businessman Mike McWherter made official his candidacy for the Democratic nod in the open Tennessee governor’s race. McWherter hasn’t held elective office, but benefits strongly from links with his father, popular ex-governor Ned McWherter.

• SC-Gov: Lawyer Mullins McLeod (and apparent scion of a political family, although one that pales in comparison to the Thurmonds or Campbells) announced his bid for the Democratic nomination in the open governor’s race. He joins two Democratic state senators Vincent Shaheen and Robert Ford in the chase.

• CA-10: Assemblywoman Joan Buchanan, who previously issued an internal poll showing her leading senator Mark DeSaulnier, has officially jumped into the special election field. With Lt. Gov. John Garamendi’s entry into the race, splitting the white-guy vote, Buchanan probably feels that her hand has been strengthened.

• CO-03: Rep. John Salazar has drawn a solid Republican challenger in this R+5 district: Martin Beeson, who’s the district attorney for Pitkin, Garfield, and Rio Blanco Counties. Blue Dog Salazar has had little trouble with re-election despite the district’s lean.

• CA-36: Jane Harman’s high-profile role in the still-unfolding wiretap scandal has liberal activists in the 36th, long frustrated by Harman’s hold on this D+12 district, wondering if they finally have an opening to defeat her in a primary. Marcy Winograd, who won 38% against Harman in 2006, has been urged to run again and is “thinking about it.”

• MI-07: For real? Republicans in DC (read: the NRCC) are telling MLive.com’s Susan J. Demas that their top choice to take on frosh Dem Mark Schauer is none other than… ex-Rep. Joe Schwarz, who was ingloriously defeated in a 2006 primary by wingnut Tim Walberg. Schwarz, who went so far as to endorse Schauer over Walberg last fall, tells Demas that he’s not interested in running again. (J)

• NH-02: Democratic New Hampshire State Rep. John DeJoie has formed an exploratory committee for the seat Paul Hodes is leaving open. (D)

• KS-04: Democrats have their first candidate in the open seat in the 4th: Robert Tillman, a retired court services officer, and former precinct committeeman and NAACP local board member. There’s more firepower on the GOP side of the aisle in this now-R+14 district, including RNC member Mike Pompeo and state senator Dick Kelsey.

• Redistricting: Republican Ohio state senator John Husted (who will probably be the GOP’s candidate for SoS in 2010) has introduced legislation that would totally change the way redistricting is done in Ohio. It would create a 7-member bipartisan commission that would draw both congressional and state district lines (removing congressional district authority from the legislature, and legislative district authority from the 5-member panel that Dems currently control). It remains to be seen, though, whether this proposal would make it past the Democratic governor and state house.

• Nostalgia: Yahoo is shutting down the venerable Geocities. What ever will former Louisiana senate candidate John Neeley Kennedy do? (D)

• NJ-Gov: Another day, another ugly poll for Jon Corzine. This time, it’s this month’s installment of the Quinnipiac poll. Not much change from last month: Chris Christie leads Corzine 46-37, up a bit from 44-38. This despite 61% of voters not knowing enough about Christie to form an opinion of him!

• KY-Sen: Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson may be the guy on the GOP’s wish list for the Kentucky Senate seat, but he said yesterday that he’s running for Senate only if Jim Bunning retires. (What are the odds on that?) Meanwhile, state senate president David Williams is accusing Grayson and Bunning of being in cahoots to shut him out of the race. Good times.

• CT-Sen: You gotta love Joe Lieberman, always there to lend a helping hand. Lieberman announced that he’s supporting Chris Dodd for re-election, even though Dodd supported, y’know, the Democrat in the 2006 general. As Lanny Davis puts it, “Being a mensch and a friend is more important than carrying a grudge.”

• CO-04: Nice to see that someone can get a job in this economy: Marilyn Musgrave has emerged from months of post-defeat seclusion to take a leadership position with something called the Susan B. Anthony List, apparently a bizarro-world EMILY’s List that supports anti-abortion female candidates for office. (No word on whether Anthony plans to sue to get her name back.) It’s unclear whether this is permanent or Musgrave is staying close to donors until a rematch in CO-04.

• KS-01, KS-04: Mike Huckabee (who overwhelmingly won the Kansas caucuses) is wading into the primaries to fill the two safe GOP seats left vacant by the Jerry Moran/Todd Tiahrt scrum for the open senate seat. He’s endorsing state senator Tim Huelskamp in KS-01 and state senator Dick Kelsey in KS-04. RNC member Mike Pompeo is also expected to run in KS-04, while ex-aide to Sam Brownback Rob Wasinger and businessman Tim Barker are already running in KS-01.

• Maps: Here’s a nice resource to bookmark, from Ruy Teixeira and the Center for American Progress: it’s a collection of interactive maps showing state-by-state 04-08 and 88-08 shifts, along with piles of 08 exit poll data.

• MN-Sen: As if you needed one more reason not to donate to Republicans, the Norm Coleman campaign accidentally made public 4.3 GB of donors’ personal data, including credit card numbers and security information.

Alexi Giannoulias, Illinois state treasurer, upset the incumbent in 2006 after being endorsed by Barack Obama met with Dick Durbin in Washington recently to discuss a potential senate bid.  Giannoulias also has the ability to self fund, being the former vice president of a bank.  

Giannoulias was in DC again last week to meet with potential campaign staff, fundraisers, etc. He also met with US Sen. Dick Durbin, who said yesterday that Giannoulias would be a “formidable” candidate if he runs. Giannoulias is clearly gearing up for a Senate bid.

http://thecapitolfaxblog.com/2…

In Ohio, Lt. Governor Fisher is all but in and will likely announce in the next 45 days.  

The quick entry of former Congressman Rob Portman into the contest for George Voinovich’s seat turned the heat up on everyone else in the kitchen, Fisher included. He said his answer will come in the next 45 days-maybe soon, maybe not-but it will be based on the first two of what he believes are the three reasons a candidate runs : personal, professional, and political. Fisher says this isn’t a run for his own gratification, but rather another way to help Governor Strickland and Senator Brown bring good paying jobs back to Ohio.

http://www.ohiodailyblog.com/c…

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Former State Treasurer of Missouri Sarah Steelman is also all but in, for Missouri’s senate race, ensuing, she is expected to cause collateral damage in a primary with Washington’s favorite Blunt.

Two Republican sources close to Steelman say after weeks of laying the groundwork, Steelman is “very, very likely” going to run for outgoing Sen. Kit Bond’s seat.

“She is continuing to meet with people across the state. She’s being encouraged by many supporters to run. She has had some great meetings in D.C. and around the state,” says one source. “Her message is about reform, transparency and accountability in government. That message is relevant now more than ever before.”

http://ky3.blogspot.com/2009/0…

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Tiarht’s (KS-04) R+12 district probably won’t be very competitive in the general election, but that doesn’t make the primary uninteresting!  First into the ring, State Senator Dick Kelsey.  

Kansas Sen. Dick Kelsey, R-Goddard, announced Friday that he will run for the 4th Congressional District seat being vacated by Todd Tiahrt.

Kelsey, the first candidate to officially announce he is seeking the office, made his plans known before about 100 supporters during a news conference at the Wichita Independent Business Association.

http://www.kansas.com/news/sta…

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In Virginia’s Democratic primary for Governor, Former state delegate Brian Moran turned on the offense against McCauliffe in front of Bill Clinton at the Democratic party’s Jefferson-Jackson dinner, trying to turn his financial advantage into a negative.  

At the Democratic Party of Virginia’s annual Jefferson-Jackson dinner  on Saturday, McAuliffe got an earful from former House member Brian Moran, who implied that the onetime DNC chairman is trying to buy the governor’s mansion by tapping his rolodex of national donors.

“We must decide what our party stands for,” Moran told the audience of activists in Richmond. “Will our party be dominated by big money and those who raise it, or will we be the party of the people?”

http://politicalticker.blogs.c…  

Fast forward, selecta!

Rep. Todd Tiahrt (R-Kan.) officially launched his 2010 Senate bid Saturday, setting up a primary face off with fellow Republican Rep. Jerry Moran.

“As I travel across Kansas listening and sharing my vision for a more prosperous state, I have been encouraged to take my leadership to the United States Senate in 2010,” Tiahrt said at an event in Topeka, according to a statement issued by his campaign.

“I am resolute in my determination to take on tough battles in Washington to get things done for the great people of Kansas,” he said. “I stand before you today announcing that I am now a candidate for the United States Senate.”

The gulf between Moran and Tiahrt isn’t especially wide ideologically, but Tiahrt’s profile as a hard-right culture warrior may work to the advantage of Kansas Democrats should he manage to defeat Moran. From CQ:

“Tiahrt running for seat is ironically helpful for Democrats,” said Burdett Loomis, a professor of political science at University of Kansas and longtime observer of state politics. “If Tiahrt gets the nomination, the Democratic nomination is really worth something to anyone who could track funding. Tiahrt is perceived as quite a social conservative, and he doesn’t have terrific recognition outside his district. Moran has a much broader identification around the state.”

Open seat fans should be aware that Tiahrt’s 4th CD has an old PVI of R+12.2 and only gave Obama 40% of the vote this time around — pretty tough sledding, even though the area has sent Democrats to the House in decades previous.

CQ identifies state Rep. Raj Goyle as the leading candidate for Kansas Democrats — assuming he wants the nomination. In the diaries earlier this week, kansasjackass gave us some more detail:

State Rep. Raj Goyle shocked the Kansas political establishment when he beat incumbent Republican State Rep. Bonnie Huy in 2006, and has since made a name for himself as an able and ambitious member of the state legislature.  As a testament to the quality of a candidate he is, in his reliably Republican district his original election in 2006 wasn’t that close (56%-44%) and his re-election in 2008 was a blow-out: He won 67% of the vote.

Sounds like a guy worth keeping an eye on.

(Cross posed from Kansas Jackass)

With radical right-winger Todd Tiahrt not running for re-election to the Kansas 4th District seat in Congress in favor of a bid for the United States Senate(probably), we’ve got another open congressional seat on our hands in Kansas.

We already talked about who the Republicans might decide to put up, with Susan Wagle, Matt Schlapp and his Mom Sue, and Derek Schmidt all seeming to be likely candidates.

Now we turn to the Democratic side.

Just like our previous lists for Governor and the United State Senate, these are folks I think could potentially make a respectable run at the office in discussion, and they certainly do vary in likelihood and viability.

State Rep. Raj Goyle shocked the Kansas political establishment when he beat incumbent Republican State Rep. Bonnie Huy in 2006, and has since made a name for himself as an able and ambitious member of the state legislature.  As a testament to the quality of a candidate he is, in his reliably Republican district his original election in 2006 wasn’t that close (56%-44%) and his re-election in 2008 was a blow-out: He won 67% of the vote.

Wichita Mayor Carl Brewer certainly does have the name recognition to run, though we aren’t sure how the non-Wichita parts of the KS-04 would react to him.  State Representative Jim Ward and Board of Regents member and 1996 Senate candidate Jill Docking are also both candidate who could certainly raise the cash and create the organization needed to win.

In my eyes, after Docking, we’ve got quite a jump in the likelihood these folks might consider running.

Former State Senator Don Betts ran in 2008 and got smashed by Tiahrt.  While Betts certainly might do better when the seat is open, I’m afraid his political future has been dashed in some pretty cold water.  State Rep. Melody McCray-Miller is a long shot, but, again, could put together the campaign needed to win a seat.

Here’s two way, way, way wild cards:  Former Congressman Dan Glickman and Vice Chairwoman of the Kansas Democratic Party Teresa Krusor.  Both these politicos could certainly raise oodles of cash through connections in Kansas and nationwide.  Also, we know Glickman can run and win in the area- he did represent Wichita for a hundred thousand years in Congress before Tiahrt swept in in the ’90’s.

These are just initial thoughts, again, it’s a long way to 2010, but I think each of these people could run against anyone and win.

And, by-the-by, our money’s on Goyle.

Here’s a pair of polls in deep red GOP districts that you don’t see polled every day: Kansas’ 1st and 4th CDs, the state’s two most conservative districts.

First, KS-01: SurveyUSA (8/17-19, likely voters):

James Bordonaro (D): 13

Jerry Moran (R-inc): 77

Other: 4

(MoE: ±3.5%)

At a PVI of R+20.3, Kansas’ sprawling 4th CD is the 9th most Republican district in the nation. Moran won by a 79-20 margin in 2006, and it looks like nothing much will change this year.

And now for the Wichita-based 4th district. SurveyUSA (8/17-19, likely voters):

Donald Betts (D): 30

Todd Tiahrt (R-inc): 61

Other: 5

(MoE: ±4.2%)

The 4th CD is a tough district for any Dem to crack, but it’s obviously not the hopeless case that the 1st is. At a PVI of R+12.2, the 4th CD hasn’t sent a Democrat to Congress since 1992, when voters gave Rep. Dan Glickman his final term in office.

Donald Betts, an African-American state Senator with a charmed political career in Kansas politics so far, is giving the district a go, but it’ll be very difficult for him to close the gap, especially with only $68K left in his campaign account. Still, anytime you have a state senator running for higher office, the race is worth watching.