Federal Election Commission data excludes “independent expenditures” for candidates . Include that, however, and the picture looks much better for Democrats who are dominating Independent Expenditures by a large margin. Combining data from SSP’s IE Tracker with 3rd quarter FEC exenditures and the oicture gets clearer and happier.
Take NY-25 where Alice Kryzan won a surprising primary win. Kryzan has been outspent about 2-1 by Christopher Lee (1,062 K to 528 K). Lee is one of the larger self funders among GOP House candidates furnishing $650 K. And yet, the advantage of Mr. Moneybags is eliminated if one counts the huge 884 to 77 Democratic lead in independent expenditures in the district. It is Lee who has been outspent by a 1412 k to 1139 k margin.
Other NY House seats show a similar trend. Eric Massa has outspent the increasingly desperate Randy Kuhl by a solid 1261 K to 883 K margin. But Kuhl also faces a 182 k to 87 K deficit for independent expenditures putting him behind 1446 K to 970 K for double barrelled expenditures. Dan Maffei in NY-25 stretches his lead from 1364 K to 197 K to 1509 K to 197 K. I didn’t even record NY-13 because I only followed competitive money races.
Jim Himes may have less reserves but he’s clearly outspent Chris Shays to date by a combines 3288 K to 1987 K. One reason why I think Shays will go down this time. Another reason would be Shays assinine statements in support of torture. There is no moderate torture Chrissy.
Independent Expenditures give big edges to Linda Stender and John Adler in NJ but have yet to kick in to either Dennis Shulman or Josh Zeitz. Stender’s 1045 to 106 edge in ie gives her a combined 2685 to 856 k edge in cycle to date expenditures. Adler leads bya combined 2-1 at 1849 to 911 over Myers. A late half million would seal the deal for Shulman and might move Zeitz over the complacent, slow spending Christopher Smith. Shulman has already raised more money than any Garrett opponent (911 K) and although outspent he’s staying in the game. A late hammer ala Nancy Boyda in 2006 would do the job.
Two PA Democrats are benefiting big time from independent expenditures but others have not. Phil English has badly outspent Kathy Dahlkemper, 1631 K to 456 k but the IE bucks have kept Kathy in the game and kept Philly the Hutt to a modest 2250 to 1795 overall edge. He’s on the verge of coming down despite a big fund raising effort. Just like Leia choking off Jabba in on eof the Star War movies. Paul Kanjorski, the embattled Nanticoke Democrat, has added a humongous 1894 to 68 IE edge to his already massive bucks. Kanjorski has an overall 3663 to 745 spending edge and still trails.
Then there are those PA Democrats still on the outside looking in: Sam Bennett, McCracken, and Roggio. Bennett is circling around Charlie Dent with a 970+574 deficit in expenditures. It’s winnable but it may take a little help. Clearly a good call to bring in the outside help here. The PA-5 race has seen 1950s style spending with McCracken at 40 k and still trailing by only 190-40 K. I wonder how $500 K would be spent in this district with two weeks to go. Roggio appears out of the game with Gerlach outspending him by 1483 to 367 K. If he wins it will be a coat tail ride with the D by his name bringing him home. Talk about a generic Democratic victory.
Three other races show outside expenditures keeping Kratovil in the race for MD-1 with extremist Club For Growth puppet Harris. Winnable for sure with the overall 2156 to 1842 Harris edge due to primary spending. With outgoing Republican WQayne Gilchrest supporting Kratovil, Frank can pull this one off. In MD-6. the aged Roscoe Bartlett has outspent Jennifer Dougherty by a pathetic 98 K to 89 K margin. The old boy is saving it for a few more terms? DE-At Large is another story. Mike Castle had a 30 point lead in the only poll I’ve seen and a bigger 1381 to 17 K edge in expenditures.
Ohio was a disappointment in 2006 with lots of close losses and a confortable win by Zach Space to replace scandal ridden Bob Ney in OH-18. Outside expenditures are playing a big role for the Democrats in three Ohio districts. In OH-1 Steve Dreihaus is usinga 1104 to 643 bulge over Chabot to hang competitively overall (1879 k to 1888 k for Chabot). Mary Jo Kilroy is using a bigger 1323 to 319 K edge in IE to drown Steve Stivers by an overall 2849 to 1468 K margin. In Oh-16 Boccieri’s blankingof Schuring in IE (1780 K to 0) adds to a small edge in campaign spending (1035 to 992) for an overall 2815 to 992 pasting. Surprisingly little IE money has gone to defeat the queen of mean, Jean Schmidt (163 K to 74 K for Schmidt). Vic Wulsin has a solid spending edge to date of 1354 to 816. No IE spending at all for Jane Mitakides, Sharon Neuhardt or Bill O’Neill in other OH races where they trail Republican opponents in the spending wars.
In Michigan, Gary Peters has gotten 950 K in IE expenditures to 0 for Joe Knollenberg putting him in the drivers seat. Schauer’s 1283 to 789 IE edge over Walberg boosts a narrow edge in campaign expenditures to a comfy margin. In IN, Baron Hill is the big gainer (725 K to 5 for Sodrel) and is safe. Mike Montagano has a modest 167 K in IE which gives him a 2-1 edge in spending to date over Mark Souder. Nels Ackerson and Brad Ellsworth haven’t received IE help. Ellsworth is safe and Ackerson is battling incumbent Steve Buyer on even terms so far.
No IL GOPer has received IE funding but two Democrats have. Dan Seaks 479 K in IE moves him slightly ahead of Mark Kirk in expenditures to date in a free spending 3049 to 2963 race. Debbie Halvorsen has used 1028 K in IE to a comfy 2607 to 1269 lead over Marty Ozinga. Say bye bye Marty. Melissa Bean needs no help against Greenberg in IL-8 but GI Jill Morgenthaler lkags ex-De Lay aide and current congressman Peter Roskam 1290 to 540 in IL-6. Aaron Schock has a 1839 to 390 edge over Colleen Callahan but a deficit in common sense and probably IQ.
Two seats look good in MN. Ashwin Madia is using a 1289 to 39 edge in IE to crush wonder boy Erik Paulsen by an overall 2285 to 1179 in spending. Bye bye Erik. El Tinklenberg added 1.7 million to the listed 646 K and Michelle Bachmann (1106 combined will be going home. Sarvi has gotten no help vs. Kline in MN-2. Kagen has gotten a small edge vs. Gard in IE and a bigger edge in CTD campaign expenditures. Overall, looks good.
One of the few races where IE favors the Republican is WV-2 where Capito has used a 681 K to 0 IE lead to build a million dollar edge in CTD expenditures overall. Time to hit back. In KY-2, Boswell used 601 K in IE to build an overall 920-337 lead over Guthrie, No money to Yarmuth who looks good for re-election anyway. Heather Ryan has been outspent 494 K to 5 K by Exxon Eddie Whitfield. Heather has gone further on 5 K than anybody would think possible.
Elsewhere in the south, Gerry Connally used a 1153 to 0 IE lead to put his race for VA-11 to bed over Keith Fimmian. Connally has a narrow edge in campaign expenditures. JudyFeder and TomPerriello hold narrow spending edges and Glen Nye the VA-2 opponent to Thelma Drake uses a stout 522 to 197 k in IE to hold even in overall spending 91029 to 1274). Larry Kissell’s 1.301 M in IE gives him a small overall lead to Robin Hayes. Carter and Johnson remain real long shots vs. Foxx and McHenry.
Linda Ketner (SC-1) has used her private fortune to outspend Brown 1346 to 467 k with no IEs on either side. Alan rayson has similarly outspent Ric Keller by a 1678 to 572 margin in FL-8. Incumbent GOPer Vern Buchanan has outspent Christine Jennings by a 3336 to 1963 K margin. IE totals are not significant. OTOH, Suzanne Kosmas has used a 697-183 IE lead to build an overall 1899 to 1373 spending lead over Tom Feeney. Bye bye. Lincoln Diaz Ballart benefits from a 622-124 edge in IE to lead Raul Martinez 2165 to 662 in expenditures to date. Brother Mario is locked into an overall 1288 to 1188 edge over Joe Garcia. Ros-Lehtinen leads Taddeo by 2-1 (1655 to 805 yet Annette is climbing in name ID rapidly and scrapping very hard. The Alabama trio of Bright, Segall and Griffith remain competitive with Jay Love holding an overall 1799 to 1364 expenditure edge; Mike Rogers leading 1139 over the neophyte Segall and Griffith holding off Parker at 1513 to 899. Griffith and Bright benefit from IE leads.
IEs don’t factor in LA so far. Don Cazayoux has an early but sizeable lead over the vaunted Cassidy and the non-moonwalking Michael Jackson. Gorman and Fleming each have more money than Carmouche (LA-4). Self funder Harlan is competitive with Steve Scalisae in LA-1, at least monetarily. Ousiders Michael Skelly (1511 to 677) and Larry Doherty are outspending incumbents McCaul and Culberson in TX-7 and TX-10. In TX-22, Nick Lampson is only competitive with Pete Olson. Not a ghood sign. Ciro Rodriguez is home free (2685 to 480).
In the Plains states, the action is limited. Judy Baker leads the polls despite having been outspent by Leutkemyer 1037-739 so far. MO-6 is the reverse asa Kay Barnes has outspent Sam Graves 2039 to 1698 but she trails. Becky Greenwald is within hailing distance of Tom Latham (699 to 430 with no IEs). The odious Steve King has a 510-152 edge in spending over Rob Hubler in IA-5. Lynn Jenkins has used 146 K in IE to take an overall 1052 to 953 K lead over Nancy Boyda. Other foul ups seem more important here. Esch has a 158 to 0 lead over Terry in IE but Terry has a 2-1edge overall at 968-487.
In the Mountains, Minnick has an overall 1926 to 943 edge but it is Salie who leads in IE at 252-111. Trauner (796) and Lummis (756) are spending evenly in WY with no IE. Betsy Markey is using a 1607-429 IE lead to fashion an overall 3024 to 2033 spending edge in CO-4. Dina Titus has a 870-44 IE lead over incumbent Jon Ensign in NV-3 and a slim 1917 to 1860 overall spending lead. In NV-2, incumbent GOPer Dean Heller has a 1077 to 585 overall lead over Jill Derby.
IEs play a big role in Arizona. The race to replace Rick Renzi in AZ-1 is over. Ann Kirkpatrick used a 1241 to 399 edge in campaign spending and a 1343 to 14 lead in IEs to put Sydney Hay away early and permanently. Similarly, over a million (1090 k) in IEs puts John Shadegg on his heels. Bob Lord has also matched Sgadegg in campaign expenditures dollar for dollar and a little more ( 1247 to 123 for Shadegg). Mitchell and Giffords look like easy re-elects.
Three seats are open in New Mexico and Democrats lead the money race for all three seats. In NM-2 Teague has outsoent Tinsley 2-1 (3222 to 1599) with a 747 to 0 bulge in IEs leading the way. Lujan leads East 1028-129 in NM-3. In the closely contested NM-2 Martin Heinrich matched 1644 wiof campaign expenditures with 1643 in IE. Darren White was beaten 2-1 with campaign spending (1644-829) and 4-1 on IEs (1643-390).
Ethan Berkowitz used a 1102-3 edge in IEs to outspens Don Young 2944-2797. Of cours Young spent a lot of money on his l;egal defense. In CA, McNerney used 1042 k in IEs for a 2754 to 450 k edge over Andal. McClintock has outspent Charlie Brown 2486 to 1483 with a lot of the spending coming in primary season for McClintock. Many other races are close in spending including CA-3 (Durston, 364 vs. Lungren,447), CA-4 CA-26 (Dreier 1813 vs. Russ warner at 1107. Chau (160) vs. Gary Miller (214). Cook 241 vs. Rohrabacher 222.