Tag: conservative

A hyper-partisan Democratic gerrymander of Texas.  Probably not VRA compliant and Texas might even have some laws against such whacked-outness.  However when drawing hyper-partisan maps I like to take “screw the other party over as much as possible and forget the law” approach.  This another full Texas map, the first I drew was before partisan data was available.

The two crowning achievements of this map are the three Democrats out of Travis County (City of Austin), which is something I posted earlier and worked to further perfect, and six Democrats out of Harris County (City of Houston).  

Every Republican seat is a major vote sink, only 4 of the 14 GOP seats are less than 70% McCain.  Which means there are 10 seats that are R+24 or higher including what would be the most Republican district in the country at R+30.

For the sake of classifying districts 59% Obama and higher are labeled as Safe D, 56-58% is Likely D and <56% is Lean D.  There is only one district that is less than 56% Obama than isn’t a GOP vote sink.

Overall this is a 22-14 Democratic Map with one district that could be won by the GOP in a wave year.  So I think the worst case scenario for the Dems would be 21-15

District 13

Obama 23%

McCain 76%

69% White, 6% Black, 22% Hispanic

The most Republican district in the state and probably the most conservative in the country.  Interestingly enough despite being a R+30 district it is 22% Hispanic.

Safe R

District 17

Obama 26%

McCain 73%

67% White, 5% Black, 26% Hispanic

A R+27 West Texas District that is 26% Hispanic.  Includes the cities of Midland, Odessa and San Angelo.

Safe R

District 19

Obama 27%

McCain 72%

67% White, 6% Black, 25% Hispanic

This is a third West Texas district that is over 20% Hispanic.  That definitely doesn’t help in this district.  Includes the cities of Abilene and Lubbock

Safe R

 

District 4

Obama 31%

McCain 68%

81% White, 8% Black, 8% Hispanic

North East Texas and part of Collin County

Safe R

District 5

Obama 28%

McCain 71%

76% White, 13% Black, 9% Hispanic

Tyler-Longview based district for Louie Gohmert.  Hey we got to keep the most entertaining Republicans right!

Safe R

District 8

Obama 26%

McCain 73%

81% White, 4% Black, 11% Hispanic

Includes most of the very fast growing Montgomery County.

Safe R

District 11

Obama 28%

McCain 71%

74% White, 8% Black, 14% Hispanic

This is my favorite GOP vote sink based on unattractiveness.  It gets all the Republican vote that would have ended up jeporadizing district 10, 31 and 9 if no counties were split.

Safe R

District 14

Obama 29%

McCain 70%

73% White, 6% Black, 17% Hispanic

Another GOP vote sink near Houston.  

Safe R

District 25

Obama 27%

McCain 72%

78% White, 13% Black, 8% Hispanic

East Texas GOP district.  

District 35

Obama 26%

McCain 73%

78% White, 6% Black, 11% Hispanic

Like the rest of the GOP districts, another vote sink carefully drawn.

District 16

Obama 59%

McCain 40%

24% White, 3% Black, 70% Hispanic

Most of El Paso but I also used 16 to grab some of the more Republican counties from district 23 in order to help make 23 more Democratic.

Safe D

District 23

Obama 55%

McCain 44%

27% White, 2% Black, 69% Hispanic

Shedding some of the more Republican counties and picking up part of Southern El Paso shifts this district 4 points towards the Democrats compared to it’s previous 51% Obama/48% McCain breakdown.  In 2010 Conseco beat Rodriguiz by 5 points.

Lean D

District 36

Obama 29%

McCain 70%

80% White, 2% Black, 16 Hispanic

Contains a decent amount of Lamar Smiths current district including the conservative parts of North Bexar County.

Safe R  

District 15

59% Obama

40% McCain

19% White, 1% Black, 78% Hispanic

Most of McAllen and the most Republican parts of Corpus Christi are here.  

Safe D

District 27

Obama 58%

McCain 41%

22% White, 2% Black, 74% Hispanic

Solomon Ortiz’s loss to Blake Farenthold was definitely a sign of a GOP wave.  The old district 27 was 53%/46%.  I would want to rate this district Safe D since Farenthold won by 1 point and the shift by 5 probably would have safed Ortiz, but I’d be breaking break my own rules.

Likely D

District 28

Obama 59%

McCain 41%

19% White, 3% Black, 76% Hispanic

This district shifts a few more points Democratic from his current 56%/43% district.  It was difficult to get a good image capture of this district since it is drawn like it is.

Safe D

District 20

Obama 58%

McCain 41%

30% White, 5% Black, 61% Hispanic

I tried so hard to get two 59% Obama districts in San Antonio and just couldn’t do it.  58% is really close and as much as I want to label this a safe D district I can’t since my intro says 59% will be considered a safe D district.

Likely D

District 21

Obama 58%

McCain 41%

33% White, 10% Black, 54% Hispanic

Eastern San Antonio and southern Bexar county.  

Likely D

I would have zoomed in more but that would have cut off several of the districts originating from Houston.

District 2

Obama 59%

McCain 40%

36% White, 26% Black, 33% Hispanic

Very Democratic part of North Houston and the Democratic parts of Huntsville in East Texas

Safe D

District 7

Obama 59%

McCain 40%

35% White, 24% Black, 30% Hispanic, 11% Asian

District 9

Obama 59%

McCain 41%

38% White, 27% Black, 23% Hispanic, 12% Asian

Stretches from Galveston up into Brazos County, most of the Democratic vote is in Fort Bend.  Interesting note is this district is 12% Asian

Safe D

District 18

Obama 59%

McCain 40%

39% White, 25% Black, 28% Hispanic

South and West Houston district.

Safe D

District 22

Obama 60%

McCain 40%

39% White, 32% Black, 26% Hispanic

The most Democratic district partially in Houston also includes Beaumont, Port Arthur, Hudson and Nacodoches.  

Safe D

District 29

Obama 59%

McCain 40%

29% White, 10% Black, 57% Hispanic

A good piece of Green’s current district is in the new 29, he should have no problem winning here.

Safe D

Like Houston I had to take this photo to account for the sprawly districts

District 10

Obama 60%

McCain 39%

52% White, 6% Black, 38% Hispanic

This district includes most of Lloyd Doggetts current district in South Austin and it sort of stretches all the way down into South Texas.  

Safe D

District 31

Obama 58%

McCain 40%

47% White, 24% Black, 25% Hispanic

Squeezing a third Democratic district out of Travis County was great.  This district includes parts of Travis County, Waco, Killeen, Temple, College Station

Likely D

District 33

Obama 59%

McCain 40%

67% White, 7% Black, 19% Hispanic

Most of Austin is in this district including Round Rock.

Safe D

District 3

Obama 60%

McCain 38%

39% White, 18% Black, 38% Hispanic

The most Democratic district in the state with Obama winning by a 22 point margin.  It loops around the very conservative Park Cities and Preston Hollow area of Dallas County

District 12

Obama 59%

McCain 40%

45% White, 21% Black, 29% Hispanic

Contains much of the City of Fort Worth.  I’d like to see Lon Burnam run in this one.  He’s a very liberal State Representative in Fort Worth.

Safe D

District 24

Obama 59%

McCain 40%

53% White, 18% Black, 21% Hispanic

Contains the Democratic parts of Arlington in Tarrant County and Southwest Dallas County.   The college town Denton is also roped into the district.

Safe D

District 30

Obama 60%

McCain 39%

40% White, 19% Black, 35% Hispanic

Mostly West Dallas including southern parts of the city and Democratic pieces of Collin/Denton County

Safe D

District 32

Obama 60%

McCain 39%

45% White, 28% Black, 21% Hispanic

South Dallas and some eastern Dallas suburbs including Garland.  I think Eddie-Bernice Johnson would run in this one.

Safe D

Well it happen?  No, but a Democrat can dream 🙂

Today’s election day across the pond. The election was called just a month ago (Apr 6). It’s a parliamentary election – in other words, the winner is the party with a majority of seats in the UK lower house.

This is one of those rare UK elections where the outcome is rather uncertain. The betting is still on a “hung parliament” where no party gets a majority, though it’s still quite possible that the Conservatives (sometimes also known as Tories) will get a majority.

(X posted at Daily Kos)



Update – unfortunate exit poll rumors – http://www.politicshome.com/uk…

OTOH, turnout is supposedly around 70%, much better than the 61% in ’05, which should benefit the Liberal Democrats.

At the last election (2005), the seat totals were:

Labour:          349

Conservative:    210

Liberal Democrat: 62

Others:           29

That was based on the following overall vote:

Labour:          36.1%

Conservative:    33.2%

Liberal Democrat:22.6%

Others:           8.0%

Currently, there are 650 seats up for election, so a majority is 326. If memory serves, about 18 seats are in N. Ireland, and the major parties don’t contest those seats.

There have been three debates between the leaders – the first time there have been debates in a UK general election. The first debate essentially elevated Nick Clegg, leader of the Liberal Democrats to a status equivalent to that of the other leaders. While the other debates were less conclusive, David Cameron, Tory leader, got a positive push from the third and final debate.

Loosely speaking, Labour is the leftist party, the Conservatives are the right-wing party, and the Liberal Democrats are in the middle. But that’s just a very loose comparison.

Many Conservative policies seem to resemble those of moderate Democrats here. While the traditional Conservative color is blue, they’ve taken a green tinge, on their website, and in some of their policies.

Many Liberal Democrat policies (and yes, they don’t use the -ic at the end) vary : while some seem rather free market, they are decidedly the antiwar party, especially w/r/t Iraq and Afghanistan.

Labour is the traditional left-wing party in the UK. AFAIK, their support is based on the stronger unions in the UK. But that constituency also resembles working class swing voters in the US in some ways. Some leftists have broken off of Labour because of their pro-war stance, and have formed a smaller party called Respect.

As for election projections, I like the UK Polling Watch site at http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/b… . Based on a “so-called” Uniform National Swing (UNS), they’re projecting the following seat totals, based on their poll of polls:

Conservative:    274

Labour:          264

Liberal Democrat: 81

Respect:          14

They’ve been monitoring what our own Nate Silver calls a “Nerdfight” with at least four rounds. The essence is based on variations on the UNS, based in part on regional UK polls. Nate’s projecting:

Conservative:     312

Labour:           204

Liberal Democrat: 103

He has a range of scenarios at http://www.fivethirtyeight.com…

My own personal guess, as Labour has quite a favorable advantage based on the way the UK has been gerrymandered:

Conservative:     299

Labour:           220

Liberal Democrat: 101

(In other words, I’m guessing that the Liberal Democrats will take some Conservative seats where Labour is not competitive, esp in the S & W of Britain.)

The UK polling report suggests that UK exit polls were spot on w/r/t Labour seats in the ’05 election, so we should have some idea where the election is going at 10p UK time (2p Pacific). I’ll try to remember to update then.

Governor General Michaëlle Jean granted a request from Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper to prorogue Parliament.  This means that the Conservatives will avoid next week’s no-confidence motion, which would have tossed Harper out of power.  Gov. Gen. Jean could also have denied the request, and then either seated the Coalition government or called a new election after the no-confidence motion passed next Monday.

The Liberal and New Democratic Parties had agreed to form a coalition following the woeful budget submitted by the Conservatives last week.  This coalition, backed by the sovereigntist Bloc Québécois, has a majority of seats in the House of Commons.  However, Stpehen Harper has apparently taken his ball and went home, and Canada will be without a functioning Parliament for the next two months in the middle of a global economic meltdown.

Leaders of the coalition are confident that the two months off will do nothing to give Mr. Harper the confidence of the Parliament unless major changes are made.  Leader of the Coalition and Would-Be Prime Minister Stéphane Dion said “warm sentiments are not enough. His behaviour must change.”  NDP leader Jack Layton was more militant, saying “[confidence in the government] isn’t going to be restored by seven weeks of propaganda.”  Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe is attempting to incite a backlash in Québec, declaring that “the Conservative leader denigrated the votes of all Quebecers.”

Parliament will reconvene on January 26, where, if the Coalition leaders’ predictions are correct, Harper will lose his Prime Ministership.

I’m quite a bit upset about this.  First of all, it sets an awful precedent for the future.  Saying that a Prime Minister can prorogue Parliament anytime he wants to avoid a no-confidence motion is dangerous.  I also fail to see what will change–either Harper submits a similar proposal and loses his government or he adopts one favourable to the Coalition, neither of which are good scenarios for the Conservatives.

I’m very curious to see how Harper’s attacks on the Bloc affect Monday’s Provincial Election in Québec.  The Bloc is clearly trying to incite a backlash, and it appears it may be working.  The Partí Québécois is hoping to make huge gains, as Québec Pride is raised from the constant bashing of the Bloc.

Needless to say, it’ll be a pretty interesting election in Québec next Monday, and a pretty interesting couple of months in Canada.

Fortynine Senate Republicans entered the 2008 elections and 41 or 42 will be left.  The result seems to have triggered a mini-boomlet of retirements from the class of 2010: Sam Brownback, Mel Martinez, Chuck Grassley, and George Voinovich.  Kay Bailey Hutchison may also be adding herself to this list.

The combination has had a profound effect on the political composition of the remaining Republicans.  Sure, the three most noderate Republican Senators are still there in the persons of Olympia Snowe, Susan Collins, and Arlen Specter but the ground behing them has moved a lot.  Ten of the next twelve Republicans (based on Progressive Punch scores from the 2007/2008 session) are either gone or have announced their retirements.  By contrast, only four of the bottom thirtyfour will be gone and one, Larry Craig, was replaced by a similarly conservative Republican.

The list of the departed or departing includes Gordon Smith (43.85), Norm Coleman (possibly, 33.42), George Voinovich (31.37), Ted Stevens (26.63), Chuck Hagel (23.84), John Warner (23.31), Pete Domenici ((22.62), Chuck Grassley ((16.27), John Sununu (15.95), and Mel Martinez (15.32).  Overall, the ten from 2008 had an average Progressive Punch score of 21.18 while those staying for the next session average a paltry 12.63.  Retirements and defeats will continue to drive that number even lower.

By comparison, 13 new Republicans were elected to the House in 2006.  The 13 had a combined Progressive Punch average of 4.58.  Three of the 13 were defeated for re-election either in a primary (David Davis) or the general election (Bill Sali, Tim Walberg).  Twenty new Republicans were elected to the House and two were elected to the Senate in 2008.  The new blood is pretty likely more conservative than the members who are replaced.

The once dominant Republican House class of 1994 has been reduced to 15 members.  Two of them, Todd Tiahrt and Tom Latham, are likely candidates for the Senate vacancies just announced.  John Shadegg and possibly Frank LoBiondo are targets for 2010 House races.  The times, they are a-changin’.  

Perhaps the timing of this diary is irregular considering we want to see as many Democrats as possible elected next week, but my own selection is connected to the current state of the electoral battleground in a sense.  There are a number of strong contenders particularly in the House, and perhaps Tim Mahoney is currently the most obvious choice, at least for his brief remaining tenure in the House.  Those with the stench of corruption encircling them, such as William Jefferson or even John Murtha, would also be worthy selections.  Jim Marshall seems to be against the Dems on virtually ever major issue so I’m sure he’d get some votes.  But after the final clincher this spring, I offer the dubious honor to Dan Boren of Oklahoma….

Boren has always essentially been Lieberman on steroids in terms of bad-mouthing the Democratic Party, making several cringeworthy quotes about his party’s “out-of-touch leadership” going way back to his first election in 2004.  And of course he votes against us on essentially every major issue.  But I was most disgusted with him last spring after the primaries ended when Boren publicly declared he would not cast his superdelegate for Barack Obama, twisting the knife in the chest of an already divided party and making a destructive spectacle out of a vote that would have been uncontroversial.

One could almost understand if Jim Marshall had done this because Marshall is in a hotly contested district.  But Boren would not have lost his Congressional seat by keeping his mouth shut and casting his superdelegate for his party’s nominee….or even casting the superdelegate for Hillary in silence.  Instead, Boren stuck it to Obama and gave comfort to every Oklahoman with doubts about Obama.

I realize Boren won’t be going away and that a conservative Democrat is the only kind that can hold this seat, but I would love to see Brad Carson take this seat back.  At least he didn’t go out of his way to trash his party, and when pressed by Tim Russert back in 2004 on who he planned to vote for, said without hesitancy that he planned to vote for his party’s nominee.