The Road to the Presidency Runs Through Central Florida

Originally posted at FLAPolitics

Congresswoman Karen Thurman, Chair of the Florida Democratic Party (FDP), titled a recent email “The Road to the Presidency Runs Through Central Florida”. Like most missives from a political party it was soliciting funds (which is to be expected). This one was for the Democratic challenger in the special election for a central Florida State House seat. 

But, the email’s title spoke to me, because I’ve been thinking along the same lines recently. Let me explain.

Way back in December of 2006 James Carville and Mark Penn did an op-ed piece in the Washington Post that made the case for how Hillary could win the presidency:

Certainly she could win the states John Kerry did. But with the pathbreaking possibility of this country’s first female president, we could see an explosion of women voting — and voting Democratic. States that were close in the past, from Arkansas to Colorado to Florida to Ohio, could well move to the Democratic column. It takes only one more state to win.

And then in an interview with Tom Schaller, Carville added which state was the most likely to go Hillary’s way:

Carville puts Arkansas, Florida, and Virginia in Tier 1, with Louisiana and Tennessee in Tier 2. That makes sense in terms of ranking, but I pressed him to pick the one state he thought Hillary was most likely to flip, if she were to win only one. He picked Florida.

Now, I’m not exactly a fan of Hillary‘s, but if she does get the nomination, I still want her to win. Also, I think there would be a silver lining for Florida if she does get the nomination. Before I proceed, let me post a map of Florida showing the counties.

In a comment to a diary I wrote right after the election, GatorDem made the point that the key to winning a state-wide election in Florida for a Democrat was for the candidate to hold his or her own in the part of central Florida known as the I-4 corridor. I looked at this phenomenon in depth in my diary called What Can We Learn From the Florida State-Wide Races of 2006?

The only state-wide race in Florida for 2008 will be the presidency. That means that if Hillary wants to win Florida’s 27 electoral votes, she has to do okay in central Florida.

In 2006, the Democrat running for Chief Financial Officer, Alex Sink, did all right there. If we look at her totals for the central Florida counties (Brevard, Citrus, Hardee, Hernando, Hillsborough, Indian River, Lake, Manatee, Marion, Orange, Osceola, Pasco, Pinellas, Polk, Sarasota, Seminole, St. Lucie, Sumter, and Volusia) we see that she bested her opponent Tom Lee 1,122,770 to 1,059,063 (51.5%-48.5%).

For comparison, the 2006 Democratic candidate for governor, Jim Davis, lost to Charlie Crist in those same counties by 954,960 to 1,221,558 (43.9%-56.1%) and Democratic candidate for attorney general, Skip Campbell, lost to Bill McCollum 973,653 to 1,220,365 (44.4%-55.6%).

In 2004 John Kerry lost the central Florida counties 45.8%-54.2%. In 2000 Al Gore also lost, but was closer, 48.6%-51.4%. Again, the point to be made is that if you’re a Democrat and you break even in this area, then you’ve won the state wide race.

But, in the last six years, the only two Democrats to do that are Senator Bill Nelson and CFO Sink. We know Nelson‘s situation is special, being a celebrity ex-astronaut (he won the area 60.8%-39.1%). And it’s possible that Alex Sink‘s case was also unique. She was perfectly qualified for the position, having been a bank executive, she has a lot of personal charisma, and the CFO position avoids the usual liberal-conservative issues that other races get mired in.

So, this is not exactly going to be a cakewalk for Hillary.

If Sen. Clinton wants to do well in the same area she needs to have a strong message and be ready to spend some money. Is there anything else she can do to help her chances?

Republicans control most of the US House seats through the area. Kathy Castor has the safe Democratic seat in FL-11 and Corrine Brown has the majority minority FL-03, but Ginny Brown-Waite is in FL-05, Cliff Stearns in FL-06, Ric Keller in FL-08, Gus Bilirakis is in FL-09, Bill Young is in FL-10, Adam Putnam in FL-12, Dave Weldon in FL-15, Tom Feeney in FL-24, and everyone knows what happened in FL-13.

The lop-sided result is due to the masterful gerrymandering (pdf map of districts) that the Republican legislature accomplished in 2002 and the sorry state of the FDP before Congresswoman Thurman took over.

Now the DCCC has said it is going to target FL-10, probably because they feel Young is going to retire (he’s 76 and has been in congress since 1971). And I’m sure FL-13 is going to get some attention. But what about the rest of them?

One way that Hillary can insure that she does well in central Florida, and thereby win all of the 27 electoral votes, and the presidency, is to make sure that the FDP and the DCCC find serious Democratic challengers for these seats. She can then help them along by funneling some of her megabucks into the races thru the DCCC.

The big advantage is that any challenger to these Republican US House members can still run against George Bush, since this bunch will be part of his rubber stamp congress. If a coordinated campaign against them can be mounted that nationalizes these elections in the same way that Ron Klein successfully did in beating 12 term congressman Clay Shaw in FL-22, then the Democratic vote thru the area will be highly energized.

Since the major media markets in the area overlap several districts, a Friends of Hillary PAC can hammer all the Republican incumbents at once for being stooges for George Bush and Tom DeLay. Why wasn’t proper oversight performed by congress while Bush was running the country into the ground during the six years they were in exclusive power?

You know as well as I do that everyone wants another chance to vote against our incompetent president. Hillary can give it to central Florida Democratic voters by following this strategy.

Another advantage to having Hillary as the candidate would be that she could get Bill to come down to fund raise and campaign with these Democratic challengers. Who would people in Hillsborough County rather see, Gus Bilirakis or Bill Clinton? If the former president shuttled back and forth across the center of the state a couple of times during the election, it would have a dramatic effect.

And when Hillary comes, she could make the trip with Alex Sink. This would allow Hillary to gain the immediate advantage of Sink‘s charisma and strong, fiscally conservative message, and also provide the added effect that having two women politicians appearing together would accomplish by energizing Democratic women to come out and vote.

Now, it’s not critical to Hillary‘s prospects for any of the Democratic candidates to win any of these seats, only that enough Democrats turn out and also vote for her so that she does well enough to win the state.

But, if some good candidates (like Rod Smith) can be recruited, and the FDP and DCCC can coordinate the campaigns so that they’re effective, and Hillary can divert enough money to them to get the message out, then it’s possible some of the Republican congressmen can be defeated as well.

Hey, a win-win. So, what’s Carville‘s email address?

Presidential Endorsements

This is a diary of Presidential Endorsements that I will periodically update.  It will include those I learn of and I make no pretensions of this being a comprehensive listing.  I welcome comments that update endorsements as the election progresses as I plan to update this diary periodically.  The more eyes we have looking, the more accurate this can be.  I considered piggybacking the 2008 race tracker David set up as adding a line to the bio boxes would not be too time consuming, but will try a diary first.

I am attempting to track Members of Congress, Governors, State Party Chairs, former officeholders, and other politically prominent individuals like George Soros or Donald Trump.

If I missed any candidates in the tabs let me know.  I plan to list the states and sublist by candidate.  Will do Democrats then Republicans.  The primaries are by states so listing by states can show where someone is running strong.

If I am not sure what state someone connects to I will list as unknown under the state of the candidate they’re endorsing until I can place them more accurately.
Unless I can determine their home otherwise, I list anyone connected Hollywood under California, and move them later if I determine where exactly they do in fact live.

ALABAMA

Barack OBAMA
-Rep. Artur Davis

Duncan HUNTER
-Rep. Terry Everett

John McCAIN
-94 & 98 GOP Gov. nominee Winston Blount III
-Rep. Spencer Bachus
-Adjutant Gen. Stan Spears
-Dax Swatek campaign manager for fmr Gov. Bob Riley

ALASKA

Mike HUCKABEE
-Rep. Don Young

ARIZONA

Hillary CLINTON
-Raul Yzaguirre – President National Council of La Raza

John EDWARDS
-Rep. Raul Grijalva

Duncan HUNTER
-Rep. Trent Franks

John McCAIN
-Senator Jon Kyl
-Rep. Rick Renzi
-Rep. John Shadegg
-Rep. Jeff Flake

Mitt ROMNEY
-Joe Arpaio, Maricopa County Sheriff

ARKANSAS

Hillary CLINTON
-Gov. Mike Beebe
-Rep. Marion Berry
-Fmr. General Wesley Clark
-Jimmie Lou Fisher – losing 2002 Gov. nominee
-Mac McClarty – fmr. Chief of Staff for Bill Clinton
-Sen. Mark Pryor
-Rep. Mike Ross
-Rep. Vic Snyder

Mike HUCKABEE
-Rep. John Boozman

CALIFORNIA

Hillary CLINTON
-Sen. Diane Feinstein
-Hugh Hefner – of Playboy fame
-Magic Johnson – Hall of Fame Basketball player
-Rep. Tom Lantos
-Rep. Grace Napolitano
-Gavin Newsome – Mayor of San Fransisco
-Rob Reiner – filmproducer “meathead of All in the Family”
-Filmmaker Steven Speilberg
-Antonio Villaraigosa – Mayor of Los Angeles

Christopher DODD
-Rep. Xavier Bercerra
-Rep. Anna Eshoo
-Steve Martin – a “wild & crazy guy”
-Lorne Michaels – Saturday Night Live producer
-Rep. Doris Matsui
-Paul Newman – actor

JOHN EDWARDS
-fmr Rep. & St. Sen Leader John Burton
-Seth “Scott Evil” Green – actor
-Don Henley of rock band “The Eagles”
-David Mixner – noted GLBT activist
-Scott Weiner – Board of Directors: Human Rights Campaign

Barack OBAMA
-Jennifer Anniston – actress
-George Clooney – actor
-Tom Hanks – Actor
-Tobey Maguire – Actor

Bill RICHARDSON
-Michael Douglas – actor

Rudy GUILIANI
-Rep. David Drier
-Kelsey Grammer – actor
-Rep. Jerry Lewis
-Dennis Miller – comedian
-Fmr. LA Mayor Richard Riordan
-Adam Sandler – actor
-Ben Stein – actor
-fmr. Gov. Pete Wilson

Duncan HUNTER
-Chuck Yeager – retired Astronaut

John McCAIN
-Rep. Daniel Lungren

Mitt ROMNEY
-Rep. John Campbell
-Rep. Howard “Buck” McKeon

COLORADO

Barack OBAMA
-Frederico Pena – fmr Mayor of Denver and Clinton cabinet member

MITT ROMNEY
-Sen. Wayne Allard

-Bob Beauprez – losing 2006 gubernatorial candidate

Tom TANCREDO
-Bay Buchanan – political commentator

CONNECTICUT

Christopher DODD
-Sanford Cloud – fmr. Pres. National Conference for Community Justice
-Rep. Joe Courtney
-Rep. Rosa DeLauro
-Stanley Greenberg – Democratic pollster
-Rep. John Larson
-Rep. Chris Murphy

John McCAIN
-Rep. Christopher Shays

DELAWARE

Joseph BIDEN
-Senator Thomas Carper

John McCAIN
-Rep. Mike Castle

FLORDIA

Hillary CLINTON
-Rep. Alcee Hastings
-Rep. Debbie Wasserman-Schultz

Barack OBAMA
-Rep. Robert Wexler

Rudy GUILIANI
-Jeb Bush Jr., son of fmr Gov Bush

Duncan HUNTER
-Rep. C.W. “Bill” YOUNG

John McCAIN
-Rep. Ric Keller
-Rep. Ilena Ros-Lehtinen
-Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart
-Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart

Mitt ROMNEY
-Rep. Ginny Brown-gWaite
-Rep. Tom Feeney
-Dorothy Bush Koch – sister of Jeb & President George Bush

Fred THOMPSON
-George P. Bush s/o Gov. Jeb Bush
-Randy Enright – Fla. regional Director for RNC
-Rep. Jeff Miller
-Rep. Adam Putnam

GEORGIA

Hillary CLINTON
-Rep. John Lewis

John EDWARDS
-fmr. Gov. Roy Barnes
-Shi Shailendra – Atlanta business leader

Mitt ROMNEY
-Rep. Jack Kingston
-Rep. Tom Price
-Rep. John Lindner
-Rep. Phil Gingrey

HAWAII

Hillary CLINTON
-Sen. Daniel Inouye

Barack OBAMA
-Rep. Neil Abercrombie

IDAHO

Mitt ROMNEY
-Senator Larry Craig
-Lt. Gov. Jim Risch
-Rep. Mike Simpson

ILLINOIS

Barack OBAMA
-Rep. Melissa Bean
-Governor Rod Blagojevich
-Rep. Jerry Costello
-Matt Damon – actor
-Rep. Danny Davis
-Senator Richard Durbin
-Rep. Luis Guiterrez
-Rep. Phil Hare
-Christine Hefner – CEO Playboy Enterprises
-Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr.
-Rev. Jesse Jackson Sr.
-Rep. Bobby Rush
-Rep. Jan Schakowsky
-Oprah Winfrey

Rudy GUILIANI
-fmr. Gov. James Thompson

John McCAIN
-Rep. Mark Kirk
-Rep. Roy LaHood
-Rep. John Shimkus
-IL. Sen. Minority Leader Frank Watson

Mitt ROMNEY
-Rep. Dennis Hastert

Fred THOMPSON
-Rep. Donald Manzullo

INDIANA

Hillary CLINTON
-Sen. Evan Bayh

John McCAIN
-Gov. Mitch Daniels

Mitt ROMNEY
-James Bopp Jr. – Legal counsel for the National Right to Life Committee

Fred THOMPSON
-Rep. Dan Burton
-Rep. Steve Buyer

IOWA

Hillary CLINTON
-Jerry Crawford – noted Dem strategist in Iowa
-Ruth Harkin – wife of Sen. Tom Harkin
-fmr. Gov. Tom Vilsack

John EDWARDS
-Ed Fallon – fmr. St. Rep. & Dem. Gubernatorial candidate
-Jennifer O’Malley – 2004 Iowa field director for John Edwards

Mitt ROMNEY
-Joe Earle – Director of Outreach Iowa Christian Alliance

Fred THOMPSON
-Andrew Dorr – fmr. political director for Jim Nussle KANSAS

John McCAIN
-Sen. Sam Brownback

KENTUCKY

Mitt ROMNEY
-Rep. Ron Lewis
-Rep. Harold Rogers
-Rep. Ed Whitfield

LOUISIANA

Hillary CLINTON
-Thomas Boggs – Lobbyist

Rudy GUILIANI
-Senator David Vitter

Mitt ROMNEY
-Rep. Rodney Alexander
-Rep. Jim McCrey

Tom TANCREDO
-David Duke –  fmr KKK Imperial Wizard

MAINE

John EDWARDS
-David Garrity – fmr. DNC member & LGBT activist

John McCAIN
-Senator Susan Collins
-Senator Olympia Snowe

MARYLAND

Hillary CLINTON
-Sen. Barbara Mikulski
-Gov. Martin O’Malley

John EDWARDS
-Joe Trippi – Howard Dean’s campaign manager in 2004
-Rep. Albert Wynn

Barack OBAMA
-Rep. Elijah Cummings

Mitt ROMNEY
-fmr. Gov. Robert Ehrlich

MASSACHUSETTS

Hillary CLINTON
-Rep. James McGovern
-Rep. Richard Neal
-Joe Wilson – husband of outed CIA operative Valerie Plame

Barack OBAMA
-Laurence Tribe – noted Constitutional Law scholar
Mitt ROMNEY
-Paul Weyrich – Free Congress Foundation

MICHIGAN

Hillary CLINTON
-Sen. Debbie Stabenow

John EDWARDS
-Rep. Bart Stupak

Barack OBAMA
-Rep. John Conyers

Rudy GUILIANI
-Rep. Candace Miller
-James Tiganelli – Police Officers Association of America

John McCAIN
-Rep. Fred Upton

Mitt ROMNEY
-Rep. Dave Camp
-Rep. Peter Hoekstra
-Rep. Joe Knollenberg

Fred THOMPSON
-fmr. Sen. Spencer Abraham

MINNESOTA

John EDWARDS
-Scott Benson – Majority Leader Minneapolis City Council
-Rep. James Oberstar

Hillary CLINTON
-fmr. VP Walter Mondale

Barack OBAMA
-Rep. Keith Ellison

John McCAIN
-Governor Tim Pawlenty

MISSISSIPPI

Mike KUCKABEE
-Don Wildmon – (American Family Ass’n)

John McCAIN
-Senator Trent Lott

MISSOURI

Hillary CLINTON
-fmr. Rep. Richard Gephardt

Barack OBAMA
-Rep. Russ Carnahan
-Rep. Lacy Clay

-John McCAIN
-Rich BOND – fmr. RNC Chair

Mitt ROMNEY
-Governor Matt Blunt

MONTANA

NEBRASKA

NEVADA

Hillary CLINTON
-Rory Reid – son of Harry Reid
-Dina Titus – losing 2006 Dem. Gov. nominee

Barack OBAMA
-Floyd Mayweather, professional boxer
NEW HAMPSHIRE

Joseph BIDEN
-St. Rep. Steve Shurtleff, Ass’t House Majority Leader

Hillary CLINTON
-St. Sen. Betsey DeVries
-Bill Shaheen – husband of ex-Gov.Jeanne Shaheen
-St. Rep. Mary Jane Wallner – NH House Majority Leader

John EDWARDS
-St. Sen. Peter Burling
-St. Sen. Joe Foster
-St. Sen. David Gottesman

Barack OBAMA
-Rep. Paul Hodes
-Gary Hirshberg – CEO Stonyfield Yogurt
-Bishop Gene Robinson – 1st openly gay Epicopalian Bishop

Bill RICHARDSON
-Steve Marchand – Mayor of Portswouth

John McCAIN
-Steve Duprey – fmr. Chair NH GOP
-Peter Spaulding – fmr. NH Executive Councillor

Ron PAUL
-Barbara Hagan – Frm Rep. & Pro-life acticist

Mitt ROMNEY
-Sen. Judd GREGG
-Bruce Keough – 2002 GOP nominee for NH Gov.
-Jim Merrill – Attorney in Manchester

NEW JERSEY

Hillary CLINTON
-Rep. Rob Andrews
-Gov. John Corzine
-Sen. Robert Menendez
-Rep. Frank Pallone

John EDWARDS
-fmr. Governor Richard Codey
-A.J. Sabath – fmr. Labor Commissioner
-St. Sen. Stephen Sweeney

Barack OBAMA
-Cory Booker – Mayor of Newark

John McCAIN
-fmr. Gov Tom Kean Sr.

NEW MEXICO

Bill RICHARDSON
-Senator Jeff Bingaman
-Rep. Tom Udall

NEW YORK

Hillary CLINTON
-Rep. Gary Ackerman
-Rep. Michael Arcuri
-Actress Candace Bergen
-Rep. Steven Bishop
-Rep. Yvette Clarke
-Rep. Joseph Crowley
-fmr. Mayor of NYC David Dinkins
-Rep. Eliot Engel
-fmr Rep. Geraldine Ferraro
-Rep. Kristin Gillibrand
-Rep. John Hall
-Rep. Brian Higgins
-Rep. Maurice Hinchey
-Rep. Stephen Isreal
-Robert Johnson – billionaire founder of Black Entertainment TV
-Billie Jean King – All-time tennis great
-Rep. Nita Lowey
-Rep. Carolyn Maloney
-Rep. Carolyn McCarthy
-Rep. Michael McNulty
-Rep. Gregory Meeks
-Rep. Jerrold Nadler
-Rep. Charles Ragnal
-Senator Charles Schumer
-Rep. Joseph Serrano
-Rep. Louise Slaughter
-Gov. Eliot Spitzer
-Rep. Edolphus Towns
-Rep. Nydia Velazquez
-Rep. Anthony Weiner (candidate: Mayor of NYC)

Barack OBAMA
-Shelia C. Johnson – billionarie co-founder of Black Entertainment TV

Rudy GUILIANI
-Steve Forbes – Chief executive Forbes magazine
-Rep. Vito Fossella
-Louis Freeh – fmr. Director FBI
-Rep. Peter King
-St. Sen. Andrew Lanza
-Fmr. Rep. Guy Molinari
-Theodore Olson – fmr. Slicitor General
-Rep. James Walsh

John McCAIN
-Colin Powell – fmr. Sec of State

Fred THOMPSON
-fmr. Sen. Alphonse D’Amato

NORTH CAROLINA

John EDWARDS
-Rep. G. K. Butterfield
-Rep. Bob Etheridge
-Rep. Mike McIntyre
-Rep. Brad Miller
-Rep. David Price
-Rep. Heath Schuler
-Rep. Mel Watt

Mike HUCKABEE
-Ric Flair – Professional Wrestler

John McCAIN
-Charlie Black Jr. – longtime GOP political strategist
-Senator Richard Burr

Fred THOMPSON
-Rep. Sue Myrick

NORTH DAKOTA

John EDWARDS
-Merle Boucher – ND House Minority Leader
-Roger Johnson – ND Agriculture Commissioner
-David O’Connell – ND Senate Minority Leader

OHIO

Hillary CLINTON
-Jerry Springer – fmr Mayor of Cincinnati & Talk show host
-Gov. Ted Strickland
-Rep. Stephanie Tubb-Jones

Christopher DODD
-Rep. Timothy Ryun

Barack OBAMA
-Mike Coleman – Mayor of Columbus
-St. Sen. Eric Kearney

Mike HUCKABEE
-Phil Burress – “Citizen’s for Community Values”

John McCAIN
-fmr Sen. Mike Dewine
-Rep. Stephen LaTourette

Mitt ROMNEY
-Rep. Ralph Regula
-Dr. John Wilke – Chair Right to Life Committee

OKLAHOMA

John McCAIN
-fmr. Gov. Frank Keating
-Rep. Stephen LaTourette

OREGON

John McCAIN
-Senator Gordon Smith

Mitt ROMNEY
-Vance Day – fmr. Ore State GOP Chair
-Kevin Mannix – fmr. GOP Gov. nominee

PENNSYLVANIA

Hillary CLINTON
-John Street – outgoing Mayor of Philadelphia

John EDWARDS
-Kate Michelman ex-President of NARAL

John McCAIN
-fmr. Governor Tom RIDGE

Mitt ROMNEY
-Rep. Bud Schuster

RHODE ISLAND

Hillary CLINTON
-Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse

Christopher DODD
-Rep. Patrick Kennedy

SOUTH CAROLINA

Joe BIDEN
-st. Rep. Fletcher Smith

Hillary CLINTON
-St. Rep. Terry Alexander
-St. Sen. Robert Ford – black leader
-fmr. St. Sen. Maggie Glover
-St. Sen. Darrell Jackson – black leader
-St. Rep. David J. Mack III
-fmr. Gov. Richard Riley
-St. Rep. John Scott Jr.

John EDWARDS
-St. Rep. Bill Clyburn – black leader
-Bob Coble – Mayor of Columbia
-St. Rep. Chris Hart – black leader
-St. Rep. Lonnie Hosey – black leader

Barack OBAMA
-Ernest Finney – 1st black SC Supreme Justice
-Dick Harpootlian – fmr. Dem. State Chair

Bill RICHARDSON
-James Dukes – SC director for John Kerry 2004
-Lachlan McIntosh – Executive Director Dem Party of South Carolina

Rudy GUILIANI
-Karen Floyd – Spartenburg Co. Council
-Jim Miles – fmr. Sec of State in SC, failed 2002 GOP Gov candidate
-fmr. Rep. Arthur Ravenel, father of cocaine fiend Thomas Ravenel
-Thomas Ravenel -disgraced SC State Treasurer, indicted on cocaine distribution charges (SC chair Guiliani campaign when indicted)
-Heath Thompson – SC Political operative
-Barry Wynn – fmr. SC GOP Chair

Mike HUCKABEE
-Iris Campbell widow of Gov. Carroll Campbell
-Mike Campbell fmr. Lt. Gov candidate s/o Iris

John McCAIN
-Caroll Campbell III s/o fmr. Gov.
-Sen. Lindsey Graham
-Secretary of State Mark Hammond
-State House Speaker Bobby Harrell
-St. Sen. Hugh Leatherman
-SC Atty. Gen Henry McMaster
-Richard Quinn – SC political consultant
-St. Rep. Doug Smith (Speaker Pro Tem of the House)
-Adjutant Gen. Stan Spears

Mitt ROMNEY
-Rick Beltram GOP State Chair for SC
-Sen. James DeMint
-ex-Gov. James Edwards
-ex-Rep. Thomas Hartnett
-Bob Jones III
-Brig. Gen. Thomas R. Mikolajcik
-Terry Sullivan – Fmr. Sen. DeMint campaign manager
-Robert Taylor – Dean @ Bob Jones University
-Paul Thurmond: Charleston Councilman & son of fmr. Sen. Strom Thurmond
-Warren Tompkins – SC politial consultant
-Lt. Gen. Claudius “Bud” Elmer Watts III
-Don Wilton – Spartanburg superchurch pastor

Fred THOMPSON
-Rep. Gresham Barrett

SOUTH DAKOTA

John EDWARDS
-Rep. Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin

Barack OBAMA
-fmr. Sen. Tom Daschle

Mike HUCKABEE
-Governor Mike Rounds

John McCAIN
-Sen. John Thune

TENNESSEE

Christopher DODD
-fmr. Senator James Sasser

Mitt ROMNEY
-Ted Welch – prolific Southern GOP fundraiser

Fred THOMPSON
-Sen. Lamar Alexander
-Rep. Marsha Blackburn
-Sen. Bob Corker
-Rep. John Duncan
-fmr. Rep. & ex-Gov. nominee Van Hillery
-Rep. Zach Wamp

TEXAS

Hillary CLINTON
-Rep. Shelia Jackson-Lee

John EDWARDS
-fmr. Rep. & 2006 Dem Gov. nominee Chris Bell
-Rep. Charlie Gonzalez

-Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson

Bill RICHARDSON
-Rep. Gene Green
-Rep. Silvestre Reyes

Rudy GIULIANI
-Tom Hicks, Owner Texas Rangers
-T. Boone Pickens
-Patrick Oxford – Managing Partner of Bracewell & Giuliani, LLP
-Gov. Rick Perry
-Rep. Pete Sessions
-David Wallace – Mayor of Sugarland

Mike HUCKABEE
-fmr. Rep. Tom DeLay
-Movie Actor Chuck Norris

Duncan HUNTER
-Rep. John Culberson
-Rep. Ralph Hall

John McCAIN
-fmr. Sen. Phil Gramm
-James Huffiness: Chair Texas GOP
-fmr. Rep. Tom Loeffler
-fmr. Commerce Secretary Robert Mosbacher Sr.
-Lance Tarrance Jr. (strategist & pollster)

Mitt ROMNEY
-Neil Bush – brother of the President
-Rep. Mike Conaway
-Bob Perry – primary financial backer of “Swift Boat Veterans”

UTAH

Bill RICHARDSON
-Rocky Anderson – Mayor of Salt Lake City

John McCAIN
-Sen. Majority Leader Curtis Bramble
-Gov. Jon Huntsman
-Atty Gen Mark Shurtleff

Mitt ROMNEY
-Senator Robert Bennett
-Jon Huntsman Sr. father of the Gov.

VIRGINIA

John EDWARDS
-Dick Cranwell: Virginia Democratic State Chair

Barack OBAMA
-Gov. Tim Kaine

Rudy GIULIANI
-ex. Va. Atty. Gen. Jerry Kilgore
-Televangelist Pat Robertson

John McCAIN
-Sen. John Warner

Mitt ROMNEY
-Jay Sekulow: Chief Counsel American Center for Law and Justice
-Gary Marx: Dir. Judicial Confirmation Network
-fmr. Sen. George “Macaca” Allen

WASHINGTON

Barack OBAMA
-Rep. Adam Smith

WEST VIRGINIA

 
WISCONSIN

Hillary CLINTON
-Rep. Tammy Baldwin
-Bill Broydrick – Fmr. St. Rep. Founder Broydrick & Associates
-Georgia Duerst-Lahti, Beloit College Professor, Commentator
-Dane Co., Executive Kathleen Falk
-Mathew Flynn – Fmr. State Chair Wis Dems
-Ambassador & Fmr. Majority Leader Tom Loftis
-Nancy Nussbaum – Fmr. Brown Co. Executive & Mayor of DePere
-Janis Ringhand – Fmr. Mayor of Evansville
-Teresa Villmain – long time Iowa Dem operative

John EDWARDS
-Dave Cieslewicz – Mayor of Madison
-Fmr. Gov. Tony Earl
-State Senator Jon Erpenbach
-State Senator Bob Jauch
-Dottie LeClair, 2nd Vice Chair Wi. Democratic Party
-State Senator John Lehman
-Rep. David Obey
-State Representative Sondy Pope-Roberts
-Dawn Marie Sass – Wi. State Treasurer
-State Representative Donna Seidel
-State Representative Mike Sheridan, UAW Local 95 President
-State Representative Jennifer Shilling
-State Representative David Travis, Fmr. Majority Leader
-State Representative Amy Sue Vruwink 
-Joseph Wineke – Democratic Party State Chair
-State Senator Bob Wirch

Barack OBAMA
-Rep. Gwen Moore

Bill RICHARDSON
-Paul Maslin – pollster for Howard Dean

Rudy GIULIANI
-fmr. Sen. Robert Kasten
-fmr. Gov. Tommy Thompson
-Rick Wiley – ex-Executive Dir. Wi GOP

John McCAIN
-Lawrence Eagleburger (Born in Milwaukee) fmr. Sec of State for BUSH I

WYOMING

Fred THOMPSON
-Elizabeth Cheney d/o VP Dick Cheney (is she from Wyoming?

District of Columbia

Hillary CLINTON
-Deborah Jeane Pelphrey – noted Madame

Mitt ROMNEY
-Bill Wichterman – Religious Right political operative

Presidential Polling – Nevada

ARG, Nevada, Dec. 19-23, MoE +/- 4%, 600 likely Democratic Caucus goers (545 Democrats and 55 no party).

Clinton 37%
Obama 12%
Kerry 9%
Edwards 8%
Clark 4%
Dodd 2%
Gravel 1%
Kucinich 1%
Richardson 1%
Vilsack 1%
Biden 1%
Undecided 23%

No one’s campaigned in Nevada yet, but so far it looks like Richardson has yet to display any regional appeal here. It’s tough enough to accurately identify caucus goers in Iowa, a larger state with top significance – Nevada caucus polling should probably be taken with a grain of salt. I have no other recent poll for this state to compare with.

Note that Nevada still has a mucher higher proportion of undecideds than Iowa. So far, though, Hillary is the one to beat in Nevada by more than 3 to 1 over any other challenger. Out of the 4 states polled by ARG in this batch, this is Edwards’ worst performance and Kerry’s best. It’s also Clark’s best, which isn’t saying much. Obama places second, but has a lot of work cut out for him here. Vilsack is not credible outside Iowa.

GOP numbers,:

Giuliani 31%
McCain 25%
Gingrich 22%
Romney 4%
Undecided 18%
(Less than one percent chose Thompson, Pataki, Hunter, Huckabee, Hagel, Gillmore, or Brownback)

Best state for Giuliani and Gingrich. Worst state for McCain and Romney.

By what margin will Bob Shamansky win?

View Results

Loading ... Loading ...

Presidential polling – Iowa

Research 2000, Iowa, 12/18-12/20, MoE +/-5%, 400 Democratic Caucus Voters:

Obama 22%
Edwards 22%
Vilsack 12%
Clinton 10%
Gore 7%
Kerry 5%
Clark 4%
Kucinich 4%
Bayh 1%
Richardson 1%
Biden 1%
Undecided 11%

ARG, Dec. 19-23, MoE +/-4%, 600 likely Democratic Caucus goers (528 Democrats, 72 no party)

Clinton 31%
Edwards 20%
Vilsack 17%
Obama 10%
Kucinich 5%
Dodd 2%
Kerry 2%
Biden 2%
Gravel 1%
Clark 1%
Richardson 1%
Undecided 8%

Can anyone make any sense of this? These polls were conducted around the same time. OK, side by side comparison time.

Candidates in R2K but not ARG poll:
Gore, Bayh (total 8%)

Candidates in ARG but not R2K:
Dodd, Gravel (total 3%)

Edwards avg: 21%
Clinton avg: 20.5%
Obama avg: 16%
Vilsack avg: 14%
Kucinich avg: 4.5%
Kerry avg: 3.5%
Clark avg: 2.5%
Biden avg: 1.5%
Richardson avg: 1%
Undecided avg: 9.5%

They say that averages are more meaningful than individual polls, but seriously, wtf? There’s a 21 point difference in Hillary’s numbers. The average is outside the MoE for both polls. There’s a 12 point difference in Obama’s numbers. Both are cases of 4th vs. 1st (or tied for 1st).

Oh, but the real cherry comes from R2K – Head to Head numbers!

Obama 42, McCain 39
Obama 43, Giuliani 38
Obama 43, Romney 28

Edwards 42, McCain 39
Edwards 42, Giuliani 38
Edwards 41, Romney 29

McCain 43, Clinton 37
Giuliani 39, Clinton 35
Clinton 40, Romney 30

Of course, the R2K poll seems rather unfavorable to Hillary, so maybe she could beat McCain and Giuliani in Iowa too. I have yet to see a poll demonstrating that, though.

On the GOP side, R2K has McCain by 1%, ARG has Giuliani by 2%.

Next Diary: Nevada (1 poll, ARG)

By what margin will Bob Shamansky win?

View Results

Loading ... Loading ...