The Other New Senator in the 111th Congress

There’s going to be a healthy amount of turnover in the Senate; even if the Democrats don’t pick up any seats in 2008 (OK, OK, you can stop laughing now), there will still be at least five new faces because of the retirements of Warner, Allard, Domenici, Hagel, and Craig. However, there’s also going to be at least a sixth new face in the Senate, because, barring something really weird happening, either Barack Obama or John McCain is going to be the next President in January, opening up one more seat to be filled by appointment until 2010 (the next general election, but also when Obama and McCain’s terms would end anyway). Unlike the rest of the Senate races, that’s one race we can’t handicap, because we have no idea who the candidates are, and there’s going to be only one voter: either Rod Blagojevich or Janet Napolitano.

This is in the news today because Robert Novak is alleging that Nancy Pelosi has been talking up Rahm Emanuel as the replacement senator. (This being Novak, the safe response might be to assume the exact opposite of what he’s saying. Just consider it a conversation starter.) He described Pelosi as “enthusiastic about Emanuel’s elevation to the Senate.” (Although she might be most enthusiastic about getting one-half of the Hoyer/Emanuel tag-team off her back.)

It seems unlikely to me that Blagojevich would pick Emanuel, though, because Emanuel doesn’t help Blagojevich with either of his competing needs: the pressure to appoint another African-American so that number of black senators doesn’t drop back down to 0, and the desire to move his strongest intra-party competition to Washington and out of his hair. (It also might seem a demotion for Emanuel, who is at the #4 slot in the House as Conference chair, and given his age, a likely candidate for Speaker in the 2020s.)

Probably the most frequently mentioned African-American contender for the position is Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. Jackson is young (41), he’s progressive (near the top of the House, with a Progressive Punch score of about 99), he’s been an effective Obama surrogate, he’d leave behind as safely-Democratic a House seat as can be imagined, and he has name recognition.

Other mentioned African-American contenders include Rep. Bobby Rush (who’s been in IL-01 for many years and is 62), Sec. of State Jesse White (a well-liked longtime fixture in Illinois politics, but 76 years old), State Senate President Emil Jones (who’s a key Blagojevich ally in the legislature, but who’s 72), and State Senator James Claybourne (who’s only 44, but unlike these other contenders, not a Chicagoan (he’s from Belleville, next to E. St. Louis) – and with Dick Durbin already senator, a second Downstate senator is unlikely). One other possibility I saw mentioned was giving Carol Mosely-Braun her old seat back, although given her inability to hold the seat in the first place, that doesn’t seem likely.

The other camp consists of people Blagojevich might like to deport from Illinois by promoting them: Attorney General Lisa Madigan and Comptroller Dan Hynes. It’s unclear whether Blagojevich intends to run for a third term in 2010 (he’s eligible to do so, although given his ethical problems and low approval ratings, it seems he’s likely to head for the exits at that point), but if he does, he’s likely to face primary opposition from one or both of them. And even if he doesn’t run, these two have oversight of his activities and have been constant thorns in his side (and, with one of them in Washington, could then be replaced with one of his own appointees).

Whether or not Blagojevich is an obstacle, either Madigan or Hynes is likely to be the next governor of Illinois. Madigan is 41; Hynes is 39. They’re both well-connected to Illinois machine politics (Madigan’s dad is state house speaker Michael Madigan; Hynes’s dad is former Cook County assessor Thomas Hynes.) One consideration is that Hynes has shown more desire to go to Washington rather than aiming for governor; Hynes ran for the Democratic Senate nomination in 2004, finishing second to Obama in the primary.

Finally, there are several other names who get mentioned but don’t fit into either category: Rep. Jan Schakowsky from IL-09 (she’s also one of the most progressive members of the House and wields a fair amount of leadership clout there, but she’s 64 and has some ethical baggage associated with fraud charges against her husband Robert Creamer), and Illinois Veterans Affairs Dept. Director Tammy Duckworth of IL-06 fame (she brings diversity and Iraq War vet status to the table, but has never actually won an election before). And it can’t be discounted entirely that Blagojevich might appoint himself, since a Senate seat would give him a new career without term limits… although he’d face the same electoral liabilities in 2010 facing Senate re-election as if he were running again for governor.

Turning to Arizona, some of you might be licking your chops, anticipating another Democratic senator, appointed by Janet Napolitano, as the consolation prize in the event of a McCain victory, but that’s not the case. Arizona is one of several states (along with Alaska, Hawaii, Utah, and Wyoming) where the appointed interim senator must be of the same party as the departing senator.

This becomes an interesting strategic decision for Napolitano, though: does she take the easy way out and appoint the Republican who’s at the top of the queue? That would most likely be Jan Brewer, who is Secretary of State and, since Arizona has no Lt. Governor, the state’s #2 person. However, it could be one of the current representatives, most likely John Shadegg, who has more seniority and a higher profile than Trent Franks or Jeff Flake.

Does she appoint the Republican who, ideologically, is likely to suck the least (moderate ex-Rep. Jim Kolbe, who was in AZ-08 for many years, comes to mind), who would be vulnerable to a right-wing primary effort but difficult in a general election?

Or does she try to game the system by appointing the Republican who would provide two years of dislikable right-wing insanity and then an easy opponent in the 2010 general election (when, not coincidentally, Napolitano herself would be term-limited and looking for a new job)? That could be ex-Rep. and professional loudmouth J.D. Hayworth, or, for maximum comedic effect, former State Rep. Randy Graf. (It still probably wouldn’t include current Rep. Rick Renzi, who’s likely to consider 2009 a good year if it involves staying out of prison.)

Related posts:

Whom Might Blagojevich Appoint? (from August 2007)

NY-26: Bellavia Makes Jaw-Dropping Faux Pas

At a pro-war rally in our nation's capitol yesterday, hosted by the right-wing group Vets for Freedom, congressional candidate David Bellavia made a major faux pas in his introductory statements before John McCain took the podium. “Rest assured that people like Senator McCain will be the goal and the men that my two young boys will emulate an admire. You can have your Tiger Woods. We have Senator McCain!” Bellavia bellowed, implicitly referring to Barack Obama, eliciting a chorus of “ooooh”'s from the mostly white crowd.  He later referred to John McCain as “the real audacity of hope.” All hail the mighty Republicans– the party of racial insensitivity!

If this were just some average citizen venting venom and casting condescension, it would not be worthy of notice.  But this guy is running for Congress in the 26th District of New York State.  The fact that the GOP firmly stands behind him as he rattles off this incendiary rhetoric– McCain made no reference to Bellavia's statements in his own speech, which directly followed– shows what a disgusting operation the GOP truly is. 

Unfortunately, the mainstream media has largely ignored the incident– Keith Olbermann commented on it on “Countdown,” and the issue was visited by Chris Matthews on “Hardball,” but it hasn't made headlines in a big way.  Hopefully, it will at least catch the eyes of voters in the Buffalo area, and in neighboring upstate districts.  NY-26 looks to be an easy win for us this year, as Jon Powers is a strong candidate; I just hope this incident at least has a ripple effect in the region, if not the nation.

AZ-Sen 2010: POLL – Napolitano Beating McCain

Just how far has John McCain’s stock fallen? According to a recent Rocky Mountain poll, he could face double digit defeat… in 2010. Yeah, even in Arizona, his home state, his popularity is less than 50%. The Rocky Mountain poll has popular Governor Janet Napolitano beating him 47% to 36% head-to-head. Napolitano is popular (59%), and could help downticket Democrats with a strong showing. McCain, on the other hand, is tied to an unpopular war, an unpopular immigration bill, and a really lousy attendance record.

Is it any wonder that McCain only leads by 9% in his home state’s GOP presidential primary? I’m glad he’s still in the race, because every dollar he spends is GOP donor money gone splendidly to waste.


(h/t Pollster.com – about 6 days old but I was on vacation and no one else diaried about it)

UPDATE: I guess that’s why McCain’s considering applying for public financing. The 100 million dollars he had planned to raise didn’t come through, so now he’ll probably take 6 million in federal funds just so he retire his debt. Anyone else think he’ll save some of the money he raises from here on out to protect his Senate seat in 2010?

[Napolitano] was ranked as doing an excellent or good job by 59 percent of those asked, and only nine percent gave her a poor or very poor rating.

The poll found that 76 percent of Democrats think she’s doing an excellent or good job, while 51 percent of independents and 41 percent of Republicans give her that ranking.

In a hypothetical head-to-head race for McCain’s Senate seat, 47 percent of those polled would vote for Napolitano, 36 percent for the sitting Republican senator, and 17 percent were undecided.

The poll, conducted by the Behavior Research Center of Arizona, was conducted between July 27 and Aug. 4 and has a margin of error of 3.9 percent.

Credit: AP, Aug. 21, 2007

By what margin will Bob Shamansky win?

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Presidential Matchups in North Carolina

Public Policy Polling is out with another poll.  This one is huge, with a lot of results for us to talk about.

But, before I dive into details, check out this quick insert from the Indy Weekly of the Triangle:
 

Our tracking signals indicate that Dole rarely travels to North Carolina, whereas Miller seems to be in perpetual campaign motion there. And Republicans like Dole are out of favor for sticking so close to President Bush, are they not? We thus conclude that Miller would beat Dole like a tympanic skin-a drum, I believe you call it.

Ok, now that I have your attention, to the poll.  This poll (link at bottom) consisted of 800 likely voters pulled from the voter rolls.

First, lets hit on the big and simple numbers.
Bush’s approval in North Carolina is 37%, with 59% Disapproval.

This number has been fairly consistent for a while.  If anything this number is worse than it has been in the past.

Next up is Elizabeth Dole.

This poll has Dole’s approval rating at 48% approval and 40% disapproval.  Her numbers have been fluctuating at around +5%.  She might have grabbed a point or two because she killed the immigration bill (first thing she has accomplished in months), but I think this is just margin of error fluctuations.

Just for kicks PPP did a matchup poll between Dole and each of the Democratic candidates for Governor.  Dole leads Lt Gov Beverly Perdue 46 to 37.  Dole leads Treasurer Richard Moore 45 to 34.

Neither of them will actually run, but its interesting because this is matchup poll #6 where Dole has polled below 50%.

From the other side of the aisle, Right Wing think lie tank Civitas has a poll out showing slightly different results.  I wont link to their poll unless I have to, for the same reason I wouldnt link to Rush Limbaugh or Bill O’Reilly.  However, I will talk about their results.

I do not trust these results, as they are normally as Republican friendly as possible without the group losing their non-profit status.  However, with that caveat, their poll results are really good for us.  They give Dole the same 48% approval rating, but with an impossibly low 28% disapproval.  They also show 22% with no opinion.  They also polled for Brad Miller, showing him with 14% approval, 10% disapproval, 38% no opinion and 38% dont know his name.  Considering Brad has only been in Congress since 2002, this is not too surprising.  It might be a little low, but is about what I expected his numbers to be.  If he is going to beat Dole it will just be a question of whether he can raise the money needed to get his name in front of people.

With all of those caveats, they polled Dole v Miller, and got 46% Dole 31% Miller.  So, a Republican friendly poll against a guy with 24% name ID, and they still cant give her numbers above 50%.  She is in BIG trouble.

Ok, back to the Public Policy Poll.  They did matchup polling between Hillary, Obama, Edwards and Rudy McRomneyson.

Against Rudy
Giuliani 47% Clinton 43%
Giuliani 46% Obama 42%
Giuliani 45% Edwards 46%

Against Romney
Romney 41% Clinton 47%
Romney 40% Obama 44%
Romney 37% Edwards 51%

Against McCain
McCain 44% Clinton 45%
McCain 45% Obama 44%
McCain 40% Edwards 48%

Against Thompson
Thompson 46% Clinton 43%
Thompson 45% Obama 40%
Thompson 43% Edwards 47%

In the crosstabs, Edwards bleeds off more Republican support than either Obama or Clinton.  But, his real strength is amongst independent voters.  Obama does the worst job of holding onto Democrats, but he is buoyed by his support amongst independents.

What is really interesting is the similarities amongst black voters for all the candidates.  Personally, I think these polls might be even better news for us than seem.  Does anyone really believe that Obama would lose up to 20% of black voters to McCain?  Does anyone really believe that on election day 24% of black voters will choose Rudy over Edwards?

All these Republicans have way too many skeletons for that to happen, meaning you can probably safely add 2-3 points to every Democratic result.

Some other thoughts on cross tabs.
Dole’s support amongst women is still much healthier than her support amongst men.  This is something that can be changed just by focusing on her actual record on “women’s issues”. 

Our numbers amongst younger voters are simply astonishing.
Amongst voters between the ages of 18 and 29:
Edwards leads Romney 64 to 33! 
Obama leads McCain 61 to 33!

There is a lot more to swallow, check out the poll for yourself.  There are 12 pages (PDF) of statistical goodness.

A quick personal note to end the diary.  Thank you to the people who donated to Brad Miller yesterday.  The Draft page raised over a 1000 dollars yesterday with donors from Kentucky to NC, and donations from $20.00 to $1000.08  Thank you a thousand times over to those people who put their money where their mouth is.

Presidential Endorsements

This is a diary of Presidential Endorsements that I will periodically update.  It will include those I learn of and I make no pretensions of this being a comprehensive listing.  I welcome comments that update endorsements as the election progresses as I plan to update this diary periodically.  The more eyes we have looking, the more accurate this can be.  I considered piggybacking the 2008 race tracker David set up as adding a line to the bio boxes would not be too time consuming, but will try a diary first.

I am attempting to track Members of Congress, Governors, State Party Chairs, former officeholders, and other politically prominent individuals like George Soros or Donald Trump.

If I missed any candidates in the tabs let me know.  I plan to list the states and sublist by candidate.  Will do Democrats then Republicans.  The primaries are by states so listing by states can show where someone is running strong.

If I am not sure what state someone connects to I will list as unknown under the state of the candidate they’re endorsing until I can place them more accurately.
Unless I can determine their home otherwise, I list anyone connected Hollywood under California, and move them later if I determine where exactly they do in fact live.

ALABAMA

Barack OBAMA
-Rep. Artur Davis

Duncan HUNTER
-Rep. Terry Everett

John McCAIN
-94 & 98 GOP Gov. nominee Winston Blount III
-Rep. Spencer Bachus
-Adjutant Gen. Stan Spears
-Dax Swatek campaign manager for fmr Gov. Bob Riley

ALASKA

Mike HUCKABEE
-Rep. Don Young

ARIZONA

Hillary CLINTON
-Raul Yzaguirre – President National Council of La Raza

John EDWARDS
-Rep. Raul Grijalva

Duncan HUNTER
-Rep. Trent Franks

John McCAIN
-Senator Jon Kyl
-Rep. Rick Renzi
-Rep. John Shadegg
-Rep. Jeff Flake

Mitt ROMNEY
-Joe Arpaio, Maricopa County Sheriff

ARKANSAS

Hillary CLINTON
-Gov. Mike Beebe
-Rep. Marion Berry
-Fmr. General Wesley Clark
-Jimmie Lou Fisher – losing 2002 Gov. nominee
-Mac McClarty – fmr. Chief of Staff for Bill Clinton
-Sen. Mark Pryor
-Rep. Mike Ross
-Rep. Vic Snyder

Mike HUCKABEE
-Rep. John Boozman

CALIFORNIA

Hillary CLINTON
-Sen. Diane Feinstein
-Hugh Hefner – of Playboy fame
-Magic Johnson – Hall of Fame Basketball player
-Rep. Tom Lantos
-Rep. Grace Napolitano
-Gavin Newsome – Mayor of San Fransisco
-Rob Reiner – filmproducer “meathead of All in the Family”
-Filmmaker Steven Speilberg
-Antonio Villaraigosa – Mayor of Los Angeles

Christopher DODD
-Rep. Xavier Bercerra
-Rep. Anna Eshoo
-Steve Martin – a “wild & crazy guy”
-Lorne Michaels – Saturday Night Live producer
-Rep. Doris Matsui
-Paul Newman – actor

JOHN EDWARDS
-fmr Rep. & St. Sen Leader John Burton
-Seth “Scott Evil” Green – actor
-Don Henley of rock band “The Eagles”
-David Mixner – noted GLBT activist
-Scott Weiner – Board of Directors: Human Rights Campaign

Barack OBAMA
-Jennifer Anniston – actress
-George Clooney – actor
-Tom Hanks – Actor
-Tobey Maguire – Actor

Bill RICHARDSON
-Michael Douglas – actor

Rudy GUILIANI
-Rep. David Drier
-Kelsey Grammer – actor
-Rep. Jerry Lewis
-Dennis Miller – comedian
-Fmr. LA Mayor Richard Riordan
-Adam Sandler – actor
-Ben Stein – actor
-fmr. Gov. Pete Wilson

Duncan HUNTER
-Chuck Yeager – retired Astronaut

John McCAIN
-Rep. Daniel Lungren

Mitt ROMNEY
-Rep. John Campbell
-Rep. Howard “Buck” McKeon

COLORADO

Barack OBAMA
-Frederico Pena – fmr Mayor of Denver and Clinton cabinet member

MITT ROMNEY
-Sen. Wayne Allard

-Bob Beauprez – losing 2006 gubernatorial candidate

Tom TANCREDO
-Bay Buchanan – political commentator

CONNECTICUT

Christopher DODD
-Sanford Cloud – fmr. Pres. National Conference for Community Justice
-Rep. Joe Courtney
-Rep. Rosa DeLauro
-Stanley Greenberg – Democratic pollster
-Rep. John Larson
-Rep. Chris Murphy

John McCAIN
-Rep. Christopher Shays

DELAWARE

Joseph BIDEN
-Senator Thomas Carper

John McCAIN
-Rep. Mike Castle

FLORDIA

Hillary CLINTON
-Rep. Alcee Hastings
-Rep. Debbie Wasserman-Schultz

Barack OBAMA
-Rep. Robert Wexler

Rudy GUILIANI
-Jeb Bush Jr., son of fmr Gov Bush

Duncan HUNTER
-Rep. C.W. “Bill” YOUNG

John McCAIN
-Rep. Ric Keller
-Rep. Ilena Ros-Lehtinen
-Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart
-Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart

Mitt ROMNEY
-Rep. Ginny Brown-gWaite
-Rep. Tom Feeney
-Dorothy Bush Koch – sister of Jeb & President George Bush

Fred THOMPSON
-George P. Bush s/o Gov. Jeb Bush
-Randy Enright – Fla. regional Director for RNC
-Rep. Jeff Miller
-Rep. Adam Putnam

GEORGIA

Hillary CLINTON
-Rep. John Lewis

John EDWARDS
-fmr. Gov. Roy Barnes
-Shi Shailendra – Atlanta business leader

Mitt ROMNEY
-Rep. Jack Kingston
-Rep. Tom Price
-Rep. John Lindner
-Rep. Phil Gingrey

HAWAII

Hillary CLINTON
-Sen. Daniel Inouye

Barack OBAMA
-Rep. Neil Abercrombie

IDAHO

Mitt ROMNEY
-Senator Larry Craig
-Lt. Gov. Jim Risch
-Rep. Mike Simpson

ILLINOIS

Barack OBAMA
-Rep. Melissa Bean
-Governor Rod Blagojevich
-Rep. Jerry Costello
-Matt Damon – actor
-Rep. Danny Davis
-Senator Richard Durbin
-Rep. Luis Guiterrez
-Rep. Phil Hare
-Christine Hefner – CEO Playboy Enterprises
-Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr.
-Rev. Jesse Jackson Sr.
-Rep. Bobby Rush
-Rep. Jan Schakowsky
-Oprah Winfrey

Rudy GUILIANI
-fmr. Gov. James Thompson

John McCAIN
-Rep. Mark Kirk
-Rep. Roy LaHood
-Rep. John Shimkus
-IL. Sen. Minority Leader Frank Watson

Mitt ROMNEY
-Rep. Dennis Hastert

Fred THOMPSON
-Rep. Donald Manzullo

INDIANA

Hillary CLINTON
-Sen. Evan Bayh

John McCAIN
-Gov. Mitch Daniels

Mitt ROMNEY
-James Bopp Jr. – Legal counsel for the National Right to Life Committee

Fred THOMPSON
-Rep. Dan Burton
-Rep. Steve Buyer

IOWA

Hillary CLINTON
-Jerry Crawford – noted Dem strategist in Iowa
-Ruth Harkin – wife of Sen. Tom Harkin
-fmr. Gov. Tom Vilsack

John EDWARDS
-Ed Fallon – fmr. St. Rep. & Dem. Gubernatorial candidate
-Jennifer O’Malley – 2004 Iowa field director for John Edwards

Mitt ROMNEY
-Joe Earle – Director of Outreach Iowa Christian Alliance

Fred THOMPSON
-Andrew Dorr – fmr. political director for Jim Nussle KANSAS

John McCAIN
-Sen. Sam Brownback

KENTUCKY

Mitt ROMNEY
-Rep. Ron Lewis
-Rep. Harold Rogers
-Rep. Ed Whitfield

LOUISIANA

Hillary CLINTON
-Thomas Boggs – Lobbyist

Rudy GUILIANI
-Senator David Vitter

Mitt ROMNEY
-Rep. Rodney Alexander
-Rep. Jim McCrey

Tom TANCREDO
-David Duke –  fmr KKK Imperial Wizard

MAINE

John EDWARDS
-David Garrity – fmr. DNC member & LGBT activist

John McCAIN
-Senator Susan Collins
-Senator Olympia Snowe

MARYLAND

Hillary CLINTON
-Sen. Barbara Mikulski
-Gov. Martin O’Malley

John EDWARDS
-Joe Trippi – Howard Dean’s campaign manager in 2004
-Rep. Albert Wynn

Barack OBAMA
-Rep. Elijah Cummings

Mitt ROMNEY
-fmr. Gov. Robert Ehrlich

MASSACHUSETTS

Hillary CLINTON
-Rep. James McGovern
-Rep. Richard Neal
-Joe Wilson – husband of outed CIA operative Valerie Plame

Barack OBAMA
-Laurence Tribe – noted Constitutional Law scholar
Mitt ROMNEY
-Paul Weyrich – Free Congress Foundation

MICHIGAN

Hillary CLINTON
-Sen. Debbie Stabenow

John EDWARDS
-Rep. Bart Stupak

Barack OBAMA
-Rep. John Conyers

Rudy GUILIANI
-Rep. Candace Miller
-James Tiganelli – Police Officers Association of America

John McCAIN
-Rep. Fred Upton

Mitt ROMNEY
-Rep. Dave Camp
-Rep. Peter Hoekstra
-Rep. Joe Knollenberg

Fred THOMPSON
-fmr. Sen. Spencer Abraham

MINNESOTA

John EDWARDS
-Scott Benson – Majority Leader Minneapolis City Council
-Rep. James Oberstar

Hillary CLINTON
-fmr. VP Walter Mondale

Barack OBAMA
-Rep. Keith Ellison

John McCAIN
-Governor Tim Pawlenty

MISSISSIPPI

Mike KUCKABEE
-Don Wildmon – (American Family Ass’n)

John McCAIN
-Senator Trent Lott

MISSOURI

Hillary CLINTON
-fmr. Rep. Richard Gephardt

Barack OBAMA
-Rep. Russ Carnahan
-Rep. Lacy Clay

-John McCAIN
-Rich BOND – fmr. RNC Chair

Mitt ROMNEY
-Governor Matt Blunt

MONTANA

NEBRASKA

NEVADA

Hillary CLINTON
-Rory Reid – son of Harry Reid
-Dina Titus – losing 2006 Dem. Gov. nominee

Barack OBAMA
-Floyd Mayweather, professional boxer
NEW HAMPSHIRE

Joseph BIDEN
-St. Rep. Steve Shurtleff, Ass’t House Majority Leader

Hillary CLINTON
-St. Sen. Betsey DeVries
-Bill Shaheen – husband of ex-Gov.Jeanne Shaheen
-St. Rep. Mary Jane Wallner – NH House Majority Leader

John EDWARDS
-St. Sen. Peter Burling
-St. Sen. Joe Foster
-St. Sen. David Gottesman

Barack OBAMA
-Rep. Paul Hodes
-Gary Hirshberg – CEO Stonyfield Yogurt
-Bishop Gene Robinson – 1st openly gay Epicopalian Bishop

Bill RICHARDSON
-Steve Marchand – Mayor of Portswouth

John McCAIN
-Steve Duprey – fmr. Chair NH GOP
-Peter Spaulding – fmr. NH Executive Councillor

Ron PAUL
-Barbara Hagan – Frm Rep. & Pro-life acticist

Mitt ROMNEY
-Sen. Judd GREGG
-Bruce Keough – 2002 GOP nominee for NH Gov.
-Jim Merrill – Attorney in Manchester

NEW JERSEY

Hillary CLINTON
-Rep. Rob Andrews
-Gov. John Corzine
-Sen. Robert Menendez
-Rep. Frank Pallone

John EDWARDS
-fmr. Governor Richard Codey
-A.J. Sabath – fmr. Labor Commissioner
-St. Sen. Stephen Sweeney

Barack OBAMA
-Cory Booker – Mayor of Newark

John McCAIN
-fmr. Gov Tom Kean Sr.

NEW MEXICO

Bill RICHARDSON
-Senator Jeff Bingaman
-Rep. Tom Udall

NEW YORK

Hillary CLINTON
-Rep. Gary Ackerman
-Rep. Michael Arcuri
-Actress Candace Bergen
-Rep. Steven Bishop
-Rep. Yvette Clarke
-Rep. Joseph Crowley
-fmr. Mayor of NYC David Dinkins
-Rep. Eliot Engel
-fmr Rep. Geraldine Ferraro
-Rep. Kristin Gillibrand
-Rep. John Hall
-Rep. Brian Higgins
-Rep. Maurice Hinchey
-Rep. Stephen Isreal
-Robert Johnson – billionaire founder of Black Entertainment TV
-Billie Jean King – All-time tennis great
-Rep. Nita Lowey
-Rep. Carolyn Maloney
-Rep. Carolyn McCarthy
-Rep. Michael McNulty
-Rep. Gregory Meeks
-Rep. Jerrold Nadler
-Rep. Charles Ragnal
-Senator Charles Schumer
-Rep. Joseph Serrano
-Rep. Louise Slaughter
-Gov. Eliot Spitzer
-Rep. Edolphus Towns
-Rep. Nydia Velazquez
-Rep. Anthony Weiner (candidate: Mayor of NYC)

Barack OBAMA
-Shelia C. Johnson – billionarie co-founder of Black Entertainment TV

Rudy GUILIANI
-Steve Forbes – Chief executive Forbes magazine
-Rep. Vito Fossella
-Louis Freeh – fmr. Director FBI
-Rep. Peter King
-St. Sen. Andrew Lanza
-Fmr. Rep. Guy Molinari
-Theodore Olson – fmr. Slicitor General
-Rep. James Walsh

John McCAIN
-Colin Powell – fmr. Sec of State

Fred THOMPSON
-fmr. Sen. Alphonse D’Amato

NORTH CAROLINA

John EDWARDS
-Rep. G. K. Butterfield
-Rep. Bob Etheridge
-Rep. Mike McIntyre
-Rep. Brad Miller
-Rep. David Price
-Rep. Heath Schuler
-Rep. Mel Watt

Mike HUCKABEE
-Ric Flair – Professional Wrestler

John McCAIN
-Charlie Black Jr. – longtime GOP political strategist
-Senator Richard Burr

Fred THOMPSON
-Rep. Sue Myrick

NORTH DAKOTA

John EDWARDS
-Merle Boucher – ND House Minority Leader
-Roger Johnson – ND Agriculture Commissioner
-David O’Connell – ND Senate Minority Leader

OHIO

Hillary CLINTON
-Jerry Springer – fmr Mayor of Cincinnati & Talk show host
-Gov. Ted Strickland
-Rep. Stephanie Tubb-Jones

Christopher DODD
-Rep. Timothy Ryun

Barack OBAMA
-Mike Coleman – Mayor of Columbus
-St. Sen. Eric Kearney

Mike HUCKABEE
-Phil Burress – “Citizen’s for Community Values”

John McCAIN
-fmr Sen. Mike Dewine
-Rep. Stephen LaTourette

Mitt ROMNEY
-Rep. Ralph Regula
-Dr. John Wilke – Chair Right to Life Committee

OKLAHOMA

John McCAIN
-fmr. Gov. Frank Keating
-Rep. Stephen LaTourette

OREGON

John McCAIN
-Senator Gordon Smith

Mitt ROMNEY
-Vance Day – fmr. Ore State GOP Chair
-Kevin Mannix – fmr. GOP Gov. nominee

PENNSYLVANIA

Hillary CLINTON
-John Street – outgoing Mayor of Philadelphia

John EDWARDS
-Kate Michelman ex-President of NARAL

John McCAIN
-fmr. Governor Tom RIDGE

Mitt ROMNEY
-Rep. Bud Schuster

RHODE ISLAND

Hillary CLINTON
-Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse

Christopher DODD
-Rep. Patrick Kennedy

SOUTH CAROLINA

Joe BIDEN
-st. Rep. Fletcher Smith

Hillary CLINTON
-St. Rep. Terry Alexander
-St. Sen. Robert Ford – black leader
-fmr. St. Sen. Maggie Glover
-St. Sen. Darrell Jackson – black leader
-St. Rep. David J. Mack III
-fmr. Gov. Richard Riley
-St. Rep. John Scott Jr.

John EDWARDS
-St. Rep. Bill Clyburn – black leader
-Bob Coble – Mayor of Columbia
-St. Rep. Chris Hart – black leader
-St. Rep. Lonnie Hosey – black leader

Barack OBAMA
-Ernest Finney – 1st black SC Supreme Justice
-Dick Harpootlian – fmr. Dem. State Chair

Bill RICHARDSON
-James Dukes – SC director for John Kerry 2004
-Lachlan McIntosh – Executive Director Dem Party of South Carolina

Rudy GUILIANI
-Karen Floyd – Spartenburg Co. Council
-Jim Miles – fmr. Sec of State in SC, failed 2002 GOP Gov candidate
-fmr. Rep. Arthur Ravenel, father of cocaine fiend Thomas Ravenel
-Thomas Ravenel -disgraced SC State Treasurer, indicted on cocaine distribution charges (SC chair Guiliani campaign when indicted)
-Heath Thompson – SC Political operative
-Barry Wynn – fmr. SC GOP Chair

Mike HUCKABEE
-Iris Campbell widow of Gov. Carroll Campbell
-Mike Campbell fmr. Lt. Gov candidate s/o Iris

John McCAIN
-Caroll Campbell III s/o fmr. Gov.
-Sen. Lindsey Graham
-Secretary of State Mark Hammond
-State House Speaker Bobby Harrell
-St. Sen. Hugh Leatherman
-SC Atty. Gen Henry McMaster
-Richard Quinn – SC political consultant
-St. Rep. Doug Smith (Speaker Pro Tem of the House)
-Adjutant Gen. Stan Spears

Mitt ROMNEY
-Rick Beltram GOP State Chair for SC
-Sen. James DeMint
-ex-Gov. James Edwards
-ex-Rep. Thomas Hartnett
-Bob Jones III
-Brig. Gen. Thomas R. Mikolajcik
-Terry Sullivan – Fmr. Sen. DeMint campaign manager
-Robert Taylor – Dean @ Bob Jones University
-Paul Thurmond: Charleston Councilman & son of fmr. Sen. Strom Thurmond
-Warren Tompkins – SC politial consultant
-Lt. Gen. Claudius “Bud” Elmer Watts III
-Don Wilton – Spartanburg superchurch pastor

Fred THOMPSON
-Rep. Gresham Barrett

SOUTH DAKOTA

John EDWARDS
-Rep. Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin

Barack OBAMA
-fmr. Sen. Tom Daschle

Mike HUCKABEE
-Governor Mike Rounds

John McCAIN
-Sen. John Thune

TENNESSEE

Christopher DODD
-fmr. Senator James Sasser

Mitt ROMNEY
-Ted Welch – prolific Southern GOP fundraiser

Fred THOMPSON
-Sen. Lamar Alexander
-Rep. Marsha Blackburn
-Sen. Bob Corker
-Rep. John Duncan
-fmr. Rep. & ex-Gov. nominee Van Hillery
-Rep. Zach Wamp

TEXAS

Hillary CLINTON
-Rep. Shelia Jackson-Lee

John EDWARDS
-fmr. Rep. & 2006 Dem Gov. nominee Chris Bell
-Rep. Charlie Gonzalez

-Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson

Bill RICHARDSON
-Rep. Gene Green
-Rep. Silvestre Reyes

Rudy GIULIANI
-Tom Hicks, Owner Texas Rangers
-T. Boone Pickens
-Patrick Oxford – Managing Partner of Bracewell & Giuliani, LLP
-Gov. Rick Perry
-Rep. Pete Sessions
-David Wallace – Mayor of Sugarland

Mike HUCKABEE
-fmr. Rep. Tom DeLay
-Movie Actor Chuck Norris

Duncan HUNTER
-Rep. John Culberson
-Rep. Ralph Hall

John McCAIN
-fmr. Sen. Phil Gramm
-James Huffiness: Chair Texas GOP
-fmr. Rep. Tom Loeffler
-fmr. Commerce Secretary Robert Mosbacher Sr.
-Lance Tarrance Jr. (strategist & pollster)

Mitt ROMNEY
-Neil Bush – brother of the President
-Rep. Mike Conaway
-Bob Perry – primary financial backer of “Swift Boat Veterans”

UTAH

Bill RICHARDSON
-Rocky Anderson – Mayor of Salt Lake City

John McCAIN
-Sen. Majority Leader Curtis Bramble
-Gov. Jon Huntsman
-Atty Gen Mark Shurtleff

Mitt ROMNEY
-Senator Robert Bennett
-Jon Huntsman Sr. father of the Gov.

VIRGINIA

John EDWARDS
-Dick Cranwell: Virginia Democratic State Chair

Barack OBAMA
-Gov. Tim Kaine

Rudy GIULIANI
-ex. Va. Atty. Gen. Jerry Kilgore
-Televangelist Pat Robertson

John McCAIN
-Sen. John Warner

Mitt ROMNEY
-Jay Sekulow: Chief Counsel American Center for Law and Justice
-Gary Marx: Dir. Judicial Confirmation Network
-fmr. Sen. George “Macaca” Allen

WASHINGTON

Barack OBAMA
-Rep. Adam Smith

WEST VIRGINIA

 
WISCONSIN

Hillary CLINTON
-Rep. Tammy Baldwin
-Bill Broydrick – Fmr. St. Rep. Founder Broydrick & Associates
-Georgia Duerst-Lahti, Beloit College Professor, Commentator
-Dane Co., Executive Kathleen Falk
-Mathew Flynn – Fmr. State Chair Wis Dems
-Ambassador & Fmr. Majority Leader Tom Loftis
-Nancy Nussbaum – Fmr. Brown Co. Executive & Mayor of DePere
-Janis Ringhand – Fmr. Mayor of Evansville
-Teresa Villmain – long time Iowa Dem operative

John EDWARDS
-Dave Cieslewicz – Mayor of Madison
-Fmr. Gov. Tony Earl
-State Senator Jon Erpenbach
-State Senator Bob Jauch
-Dottie LeClair, 2nd Vice Chair Wi. Democratic Party
-State Senator John Lehman
-Rep. David Obey
-State Representative Sondy Pope-Roberts
-Dawn Marie Sass – Wi. State Treasurer
-State Representative Donna Seidel
-State Representative Mike Sheridan, UAW Local 95 President
-State Representative Jennifer Shilling
-State Representative David Travis, Fmr. Majority Leader
-State Representative Amy Sue Vruwink 
-Joseph Wineke – Democratic Party State Chair
-State Senator Bob Wirch

Barack OBAMA
-Rep. Gwen Moore

Bill RICHARDSON
-Paul Maslin – pollster for Howard Dean

Rudy GIULIANI
-fmr. Sen. Robert Kasten
-fmr. Gov. Tommy Thompson
-Rick Wiley – ex-Executive Dir. Wi GOP

John McCAIN
-Lawrence Eagleburger (Born in Milwaukee) fmr. Sec of State for BUSH I

WYOMING

Fred THOMPSON
-Elizabeth Cheney d/o VP Dick Cheney (is she from Wyoming?

District of Columbia

Hillary CLINTON
-Deborah Jeane Pelphrey – noted Madame

Mitt ROMNEY
-Bill Wichterman – Religious Right political operative

Presidential polling – Iowa

Research 2000, Iowa, 12/18-12/20, MoE +/-5%, 400 Democratic Caucus Voters:

Obama 22%
Edwards 22%
Vilsack 12%
Clinton 10%
Gore 7%
Kerry 5%
Clark 4%
Kucinich 4%
Bayh 1%
Richardson 1%
Biden 1%
Undecided 11%

ARG, Dec. 19-23, MoE +/-4%, 600 likely Democratic Caucus goers (528 Democrats, 72 no party)

Clinton 31%
Edwards 20%
Vilsack 17%
Obama 10%
Kucinich 5%
Dodd 2%
Kerry 2%
Biden 2%
Gravel 1%
Clark 1%
Richardson 1%
Undecided 8%

Can anyone make any sense of this? These polls were conducted around the same time. OK, side by side comparison time.

Candidates in R2K but not ARG poll:
Gore, Bayh (total 8%)

Candidates in ARG but not R2K:
Dodd, Gravel (total 3%)

Edwards avg: 21%
Clinton avg: 20.5%
Obama avg: 16%
Vilsack avg: 14%
Kucinich avg: 4.5%
Kerry avg: 3.5%
Clark avg: 2.5%
Biden avg: 1.5%
Richardson avg: 1%
Undecided avg: 9.5%

They say that averages are more meaningful than individual polls, but seriously, wtf? There’s a 21 point difference in Hillary’s numbers. The average is outside the MoE for both polls. There’s a 12 point difference in Obama’s numbers. Both are cases of 4th vs. 1st (or tied for 1st).

Oh, but the real cherry comes from R2K – Head to Head numbers!

Obama 42, McCain 39
Obama 43, Giuliani 38
Obama 43, Romney 28

Edwards 42, McCain 39
Edwards 42, Giuliani 38
Edwards 41, Romney 29

McCain 43, Clinton 37
Giuliani 39, Clinton 35
Clinton 40, Romney 30

Of course, the R2K poll seems rather unfavorable to Hillary, so maybe she could beat McCain and Giuliani in Iowa too. I have yet to see a poll demonstrating that, though.

On the GOP side, R2K has McCain by 1%, ARG has Giuliani by 2%.

Next Diary: Nevada (1 poll, ARG)

By what margin will Bob Shamansky win?

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