TN-Sen: Corker Vulnerable to Bredesen, Teabagging

Public Policy Polling (PDF) (2/9-13, Tennessee voters, no trendlines):

Bob Corker (R-inc): 41

Phil Bredesen (D): 46

Undecided: 12

Bob Corker (R-inc): 50

Jim Cooper (D): 32

Undecided: 18

Bob Corker (R-inc): 55

Harold Ford, Jr. (D): 32

Undecided: 14

Bob Corker (R-inc): 52

Bart Gordon (D): 29

Undecided: 19

Bob Corker (R-inc): 53

Al Gore (D): 38

Undecided: 9

Bob Corker (R-inc): 50

Tim McGraw (D): 28

Undecided: 22

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Clearing the decks on this poll from last week. Unless former Gov. Phil Bredesen (who has crazy 63-19 approvals) makes the race, freshman Sen. Bob Corker looks to be in pretty strong shape. Most of these other names – none of whom I think is seriously considering the race – aren’t especially well known and have middling favorables and are at least half unknown (except Harold Ford, who is despised).

As for Bredesen, while the DSCC would probably be thrilled to have him run, he doesn’t seem very likely, either. In a recent interview, when asked if he’d ever run for office again, he said: “Well, you never say never, but that is not my intention.” But the indispensible Brian Valco digs up an article from a year ago in which Bredesen had this to say about his future plans: “I really like the public sector, and if there are some opportunities there, I’d be open.” So maybe there’s any opening there – though I suspect Bredesen would at best be a Joe Manchin-type candidate. Still, he’d draw resources away from other races, at the very least.

PPP also put out GOP primary numbers (PDF):

Bob Corker (R-inc): 38

“More conservative challenger”: 43

Not sure: 19

Bob Corker (R-inc): 50

Marsh Blackburn (R): 30

Undecided: 20

Bob Corker (R-inc): 66

Hank Williams, Jr. (R): 13

Undecided: 21

(MoE: ±4.9%)

I personally think a 50-30 margin over an little-known member of the House who hasn’t even come close to announcing a campaign (that would be Blackburn, who represents the 7th CD) is not especially good – nor, of course, are those generic numbers. Hank Williams, Jr., by the way, is the country star, who apparently has said in the past that he’s interested in running for office. Amusingly, PPP also tested country star Tim McGraw in the general – would be kind of awesome if we had a Biggie vs. Tupac-style senate race down in Tennessee between Williams and McGraw.

Kendrick Meek and More Endorsements, with Al Gore

MIAMI GARDENS, FLA – Kendrick Meek, Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate, continues to consolidate support from Florida Democrats as he receives the endorsements of Rep. Mark S. Pafford (D-West Palm Beach), Rep. Darren Soto (D-Orlando), and Rep. Scott Randolph (D-Orlando). Statements by Rep. Pafford, Rep. Soto, Rep. Randolph and Kendrick Meek follow:

Rep. Pafford (D-West Palm Beach) said, “Kendrick Meek’s career has always been defined by his commitment to the people of Florida. Like me, he has stood in opposition to big oil and offshore oil drilling to protect Florida’s coastlines. Kendrick also understands the importance of protecting another natural resource: our children. As a father I am grateful that Kendrick fought to restrict class sizes so that our children can excel. I am honored to give Kendrick my support and will continue to fight with him for Florida.”

“Kendrick Meek has a long and reliable record of supporting issues Hispanics care about, including a strong economy, advancing education through smaller class sizes, equality, and fair wages. He was a strong supporter of Justice Sotomayor’s nomination and is against the Arizona style immigration law, issues important to our community. Kendrick Meek has asked for our support and I am honored to stand by him in Central Florida,” said Rep. Soto (D-Orlando).

“Kendrick Meek has been protecting the people of Florida since his days as a Florida State Trooper. He’s not afraid to stand up and speak truth to power. In his opposition to HB 1143, Kendrick stood for all women as a champion of choice. Kendrick is committed to securing justice for every Floridian, not just the ones with big pocketbooks. I am proud to stand by Kendrick and endorse his candidacy for the U.S. Senate,” reported Rep. Randolph (D-Orlando)

“I am honored to have the support of these three outstanding public servants. They have each fought tirelessly for the state of Florida and aren’t afraid to stand their ground on tough issues. These three men work relentlessly to protect the people of Florida because they understand what’s at stake. They are leaders who have strong roots in Florida and in their communities. I value their vision and their insight as principled men of character. Florida is fortunate to have them and I am honored to receive their support,” said Kendrick Meek, Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate.

Our campaign has also picked up the support of Al Gore, as he writes.

Florida has had its share of close elections, but this Senate race really ought to be a landslide. And it would be if people just look hard at the facts.

Kendrick Meek is the only one in this race who has consistently opposed offshore drilling. He is the only one who will ensure that we all have quality health care, and the only one who will focus on helping working Americans, rather than wealthy corporations.

Here is the bottom line: We have to help make sure Florida voters have all the facts about Kendrick and his opponents.

We’ve got just 42 days until Election Day, and Kendrick needs your help so he can keep his ads on the air and tell it like it is. His opponents are getting all the help they need – from corporations and special interests. Kendrick relies on you-his grassroots supporters. He needs you to make a donation today so he can raise $75,000 before the critical September 30 end-of-quarter deadline.

Click here to make an immediate donation to Kendrick’s campaign. He needs his grassroots supporters to help him raise $75,000 by the September 30 deadline.

As you know, I’m working hard to raise awareness about the serious threats to our environment. One reason it’s so hard is because the polluters don’t want any protections for the environment that might reduce their profits, so they have managed thus far to kill climate change legislation that would have protected our children and grandchildren.

Unlike his opponents, Kendrick Meek never has been and never will be in the pocket of these special interests. He was against offshore drilling long before the terrible oil spill in the Gulf, and he’s always worked to protect our beaches and wildlife, research and develop energy sources like solar power, and promote a better environment.

With Kendrick in the U.S. Senate, we can rest assured that there’s somebody in Washington looking out for us. But that will happen only when he can raise the funds to stay on the air until Election Day-just 42 days away. You are an integral part of Kendrick’s campaign because he relies on you for support, not oil companies and special interests.

Please make a donation to Kendrick’s campaign today and help him reach his goal of raising $75,000 before the September 30 deadline. If he reaches this goal, I know he’ll be able to win in November.

Once people get the facts, the choice will be clear and Kendrick Meek will be the new United States Senator from Florida. With your help today, we can make sure the facts get out.


Al Gore

We are also having a Rally for Kendrick Meek with former vice president Al Gore.





TAMPA, FL 33609



SSP Daily Digest: 9/23 (Morning Edition)

  • DE-Sen: Interesting – Mike Castle isn’t ruling out a write-in bid. If he does pull the trigger, let’s see if the NRSC and the Senate GOP caucus have the stomach to tell Castle to fuck off. It’d be a great test of their will – and their willingness to embrace Christine O’Donnell.
  • FL-Sen: Al Gore Alert! In a rare sighting on the campaign trail, Al Gore (still my president!) will headline a rally for Kendrick Meek in Tampa on September 30th. Have we seen Gore do events for any other candidates this cycle?
  • KY-Sen: Objectively pro-methamphetamine senate candidate Rand Paul keeps running into trouble over his views on drugs. Republican Clay County Sherriff Kevin Johnson endorsed Paul after Paul told him he supported Operation UNITE, a federally-funded anti-drug task force. Paul’s hostility to UNITE, though, is what’s gotten him into hot water in the first place – and amazingly enough, when asked to confirm his pledge to Johnson, Paul’s campaign refused to back it up! I had always hoped/prayed/expected that Rand Paul was such a hardcore libertarian that he’d rigidly – and publicly – cling to beliefs that halfway-competent politicians would be smart enough to elide, deny, or just plain hide. I just figured it would be something like the gold standard, not, you know, meth.
  • Surprisingly, Paul has smelled the glove belonging to a very different interest group, the neocons. They mistrust Paul’s views on Israel and probably just on the general concept of randomly invading countries and killing people.

  • AR-Gov: That Ipsos poll which showed Blanche Lincoln “only” 14 points into her political grave also has a gubernatorial component. Dem Gov. Mike Beebe is beating Republican Jim Keet by a 55-37 margin among LVs. You want an enthusiasm gap? Beebe wins 58-30 among RVs. (It was 57-35 among RVs back in July.)
  • CO-Gov: God, I love the smell of ratfucking in the morning. So, we all know about Scott McInnis’s now-legendary implosion thanks to his plagiarism/theft scandal, but Democrats had a big hand in consigning him to the dustbin of history. It turns out that a group called the Colorado Freedom Fund spent half a million bucks on ads blistering McInnis during the primary, in order to help bolster Dan Maes. The DGA was a big contributor to this effort, chipping in $150K, while unions and wealthy philanthropist Pat Stryker gave the rest. Excellent fucking work, guys.
  • MN-Gov: The RGA is funneling $428K to a pro-Tom Emmer group, while the DGA sent a quarter mil to an org helping Dem Mark Dayton.
  • TX-Gov: Rick Perry may not be the suckiest suck who ever sucked, but you’ll have to agree that he is pretty sucky. The Texas Farm Bureau finally agrees, too. Though they’ve always endorsed him in the past (and have always endorsed Republicans for governor), they’re giving up on his sorry ass this year and staying neutral in the race. (They previously endorsed Kay Bailey Hutchison against him in the primary.) It probably didn’t help that a Perry spokesman, in an attempt to bolster his boss’s teabagger/secessionista cred, derided the bureau as “an insurance company that supported the bailout.”
  • IL-14: We could call this the Hypocrisy State Project and still have tons to write about. The latest chapter in this never-ending saga is penned by Republican Randy Hultgren, who was responsible for marketing his investment firm’s funds. One of the firm’s offerings invested entirely in bailout-backed securities, which were described by one Wall Streeter as “an incredibly free lunch.” This is a two-fer, because this fund was also based in the Cayman Islands, to take advantage of lax tax laws, of course.
  • MA-10: Massachusetts, at least, is one place where Republicans still need to run away from their own party in order to be electable. So it’s no surprise to see Jeffrey Perry declare that he doesn’t want Sarah Palin showing up in his district. (Don’t worry, bud, I think you’re safe.) Of course, Perry isn’t exactly from the non-crazy wing of the Republican Party (to the extent there still is such a thing), since he has teabagger ties himself.
  • MI-07: Rossman Group/Team Telcom (9/20, likely voters, no trendlines):
  • Mark Schauer (D-inc): 38

    Tim Walberg (R): 42

    Undecided: 12

    (MoE: ±5.6%)

  • NY-18: This interview with Jim Russell – remember him from yesterday? the guy whose writings have been favorably cited by the KKK? – is just brutal. He doesn’t disavow anything. So we’ve gotta ask: Why isn’t the press giving this guy the Alvin Greene treatment? After all, Greene’s weirdest idea was to sell bobblehead dolls. Russell thinks there are too many Jews. Anyhow, the Westchester GOP is trying to get Russell off the ballot through legal means, and they say if they can’t, they’ll run a write-in candidate.
  • NY-19: A judge ruled against a group trying to knock Nan Hayworth off the Independence Party line for a lack of valid signatures. Hayworth gets to keep the line, while incumbent John Hall has the Working Families line.
  • NY-23: With the vote count all but completed, it looks like Matt Doheny is (still) the winner of the Republican primary, but Doug Hoffman ain’t conceding yet. I guess he feels burned after what happened in the special election, where he tried to “un-concede” after some counting errors emerged (but still lost anyway). The vote count does not officially get certified until the 27th, but Doheny could declare victory (and/or Hoffman could concede) before then. Hoffman still hasn’t said anything about how vigorously (if at all) he plans to wage war from the Conservative Party line.
  • PA-10: Another day, another NRA endorsement for a Dem. Chris Carney is the latest in a string of mostly-conservative Democrats to rack up the group’s support, even though they labeled him a “true enemy” of guns just four years ago.
  • TN-09: Heh – the Memphis Flyer commissioned a poll by Yacoubian Research, which found Steve Cohen leading Charlotte Bergmann 66-23. There were only 205 respondents, and note that we previously flagged a Yacoubian poll of the primary for attempting to screen voters by asking them if they lived in the 9th CD – how many people actually know what district they live in, by number? But whatever, Steve Cohen ain’t losing.
  • VA-09: Rick Boucher successfully got an ad by Americans for Job Security pulled off the air for making a misleading statements. The ad said “Rick Boucher supports Nancy Pelosi 96 percent of the time,” but this claim was based on the Washington Post’s “party voting” score, which Boucher rightly argued does not measure “support for Pelosi.” (A good time to remind folks that it’s much, much easier to get third-party ads yanked because stations are liable for defamation when they run these ads. Media outlets are immune from liability for candidate ads.)
  • SSP TV (by James L.):

    • LA-Sen: “Diaper” David Vitter hits Charlie Melancon for attending a fundraiser in Canada, of all places.
    • AR-01: Chad Causey’s latest spot takes a shotgun approach to messaging, touting his heritage, his support for a balanced budget amendment and a paycut for Congress, while hitting Republican Rick Crawford over the bad kind of SSP and for his support of a 23% national sales tax
    • FL-22: Allen West takes on Ron Klein over a Florida Democratic Party mailer that boneheadedly revealed West’s Social Security number
    • GA-08: Dem Rep. Jim Marshall goes heavy negative on GOP state Rep. Austin Scott on immigration – not once, but twice
    • MI-07: GOP douche Tim Walberg says that Dem Rep. Mark Schauer is spending America into ruin, and also makes the dubious claim that he “strongly supports” Social Security. The ad, a coordinated expenditure partially paid for by the RNC, is airing in the Lansing media market and cost $85,000.
    • MI-15: John Dingell goes negative on Republican Rob Steele over his support from the wretched hive of scum and villainy that is Wall Street, while Steele has gone up with an ad of his own touting his record as a physician and poking Dingell over spending
    • NC-02: Dem Rep. Bob Etheridge’s latest ad features the testimonials of locals who say that Etheridge saved their jobs
    • OH-12: Dem Paula Brooks touts her record on the Franklin County Commission while spilling marbles all over her kitchen island
    • OR-05: GOPer Scott Bruun will stop the spending… except when it comes to restoring Medicare cuts, apparently
    • SC-02: Libruhl Rob Miller and libruhl Nancy Pelosi will liberally kill all your jobs; meanwhile, Joe Wilson still sounds like he uses a speech synthesizer instead of a functional set of vocal cords. Seriously, what a creepy-sounding asshole.
    • VA-09: Republican Morgan Griffith plays a clip of Barack Obama saying “I love Rick Boucher” – four times in thirty seconds

    Where Al Gore Did Better than Barack Obama: What Conventional Wisdom Doesn’t Tell You

    By: Inoljt,

    Several days after the 2008 presidential election, the New York Times produced a famous map of voting shifts since 2004.  Most politics buffs have seen this map; according to it, Appalachia “voted more Republican, while the rest of the nation shifted more Democratic.”


    There is something else occurring here, however, which the map hides – and which almost nobody has perceived. This trend goes strongly, strongly against conventional wisdom.

    To unearth this trend, let’s move back one election – to former Vice President Al Gore’s 2000 tie with former President George W. Bush. Before going below the fold, I invite you to guess – which states did Mr. Gore do better than President Barack Obama?

    Here are the states he performed best relative to President Barack Obama. In all these, Mr. Gore did at least five percent better than Mr. Obama.


    By and large, these states are what one would expect. All are located in the midst of Appalachia or the Deep South, regions rapidly trending Republican. All were fairly unenthused by Obama’s themes sounding change and hope.

    Here are the remaining states in which Gore improved upon Obama:


    This result is something quite different. Arizona – Senator John McCain’s home state – is not surprising, nor is Appalachian Kentucky.

    Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and New Jersey, on the other hand – these constitute core Democratic strongholds. The vast majority of pundits would characterize them as becoming more Democratic, if anything at all. Indeed, there has been much ballyhoo about the Northeast’s Democratic shift – how Republicanism is dead in the region, how every single New England congressman is a Democrat, how Obama lost only a single county in New England.

    That Al Gore performed more strongly than Barack Obama in Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and New Jersey runs strongly against this hypothesis. Remember, too, that Obama won the popular vote by 7.3% while Gore did so by only 0.5%. If the two had ran evenly, this trend would have been far more pronounced. The state in which Obama improved least upon Gore, for instance, was not Alaska or Mississippi – but New York, where Gore did only 1.88% worse than Obama. The map below indicates this:


    Much of the movement derives from the Republican candidates in 2000 and 2008. George Bush was a terrible fit for northeastern voters, with his lack of intellectual depth and cowboy persona. John McCain, on the other hand, was a man many northeasterners admired – he had a strong brand of independence and moderation, which the campaign tarnished but did not destroy. McCain was a person New England Republicans could feel comfortable voting for – and they did. (Fortunately for Democrats, there are not too many Republicans left in the Northeast.)

    All in all, the Northeast’s relative movement right constitutes a very surprising trend. Few people would anticipate that Al Gore did better than Barack Obama in Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and New Jersey. It defies conventional wisdom and the common red-blue state dynamic, which holds that the northeast is permanently Democratic. Finally, given increasing political polarization, this relative trend the other way probably is a good thing for the country.

    The Modern Electoral Map

    By: Inoljt, http://thepolitikalblog.wordpr…

    Some of you may recognize this map.


    For those who don’t, this is Ronald Reagan’s landslide election over his hapless opponent Walter Mondale.

    Unfortunately, for those who look for political trends, this map hides more than it reveals. For example, Reagan wins Massachusetts, but reasonable people would agree that Massachusetts is normally a Democratic state.

    Here is a more revealing map.


    You probably don’t recognize this map. There’s a good reason for that – there’s never been a presidential election with the above results.

    More below the flip.

    In fact, the previous electoral college is what would have happened if Walter Mondale and Ronald Reagan won an equal share of votes. The blue states are those in which Reagan won with less than 18.2%, the exact amount by which he beat Mondale.

    This map bears an eerie resemblance to today’s electoral maps. For example, here is the 2000 presidential election, in which Bush and Gore effectively ran to a dead heat.


    There have been some changes since Reagan’s time. The Northeast has been turning blue; it is much harder today for Republicans to win a state like New Jersey or Maine. California has also been changing; Reagan would have lost it by only 2% in the hypothetical. To compensate, Appalachia has been moving the other direction; Democrats are hard-pressed to turn Tennessee and West Virginia blue nowadays. Places like Missouri and Kentucky were less than 3% redder than the nation in 1984. That was not the case last November.

    By and large, however, what is striking is the degree to which the electoral maps look alike. For all the talk  nowadays about blue states turning red and red states turning blue, much more has remained the same than has changed. Democrats do well in the Pacific Coast, the Midwest, and the Northeast; Republicans do well in the Mountain West, the Plains, and the South. The Democratic and Republican coalitions remain much the same as they were two decades ago.

    PA-05: McCracken for Congress — Working the Final Week to Take Back Our Future

    The campaign schedule has been pretty intense over the last week and will continue to be so until the BIG day on Tuesday, November 4th.   I want to congratulate everyone for putting so much effort into this year’s election, not just for an individual campaign, but for the entire Democratic ticket.  I’ve seen people in every community throughout the 5th district working to make sure the message is getting out.  

    I want to remind everyone it is important that we finish strong.   Don’t take anything for granted, ignore the polls and work like the polls show our candidates 5 points down.  Remember, while all indications show Barack Obama will be our next president, if we believe the polls, Al Gore would be concluding his second term or we would be working to re-elect President John Kerry right now.

    On a personal note specifically dealing with our campaign for the United State Congress, I want to assure everyone that I am working as hard as I can heading into the final week of the campaign.   Back in January when Kelly and I decided we would enter the race we knew that 2008 would be a difficult year for our family.  We’ve missed opportunities to do things as a family but we knew solving the problems besieging our nation required a sacrifice.  What is encouraging is watching the work everyone is doing and seeing people giving of their time and donating their personal skills to bring a positive result on November 4th.

    For the final week, I ask that everyone keep in mind what the real goal is.  The real goal isn’t just to win an election, what we are working for in 2008 is to take back our future.   I’ve been stressing to voters the last couple of weeks to realize over the last 8 years poor decisions in Washington have put the future for our children and grandchildren in jeopardy.  The one issue more apparent than any other is the outrageous deficit and debt that George W. Bush will leave behind when he moves out of the White House in January.

    My Republican opponent constantly says the “Bush tax cuts are our tax cuts” when the real truth is the Bush debt is our debt.  The only way we are going to get our future back is by voting for the right people on November 4th who will make the tough decisions to put our country back in order.   It all starts with making our federal government fiscally strong so we can invest in our nation and make the lives of all our citizens better.   Sacrifice will be necessary, but in the end our country will be better.

    A Very Important Endorsement:

    I am please to announce that my candidacy has received the endorsement of the Veterans and Military Families for Progress.  In the letter informing our campaign of the endorsement the organization stated “Veterans and Military Families for Progress has chosen to endorse your campaign.  We do this in recognition of your support of veteran, active duty, guard, reserve, and military family issues.  We hope that in some way our endorsement provides you an electoral advantage and ultimately ensures your election to the Pennsylvania Fifth Congressional District seat”.

    This is a very important endorsement to receive from a prestigious organization that is dedicated to supporting the issues important of the active military and their families along with our veterans.  This is an endorsement our campaign can be very proud to receive.

    Campaign Commercial:

    We are getting our message of fiscal responsibility out to the people of this district.  We have a plan to right the ship and move in a new direction that includes balancing the budget, paying down the debt and investing here at home.  

    We can’t afford any more of the “borrow and spend” mentality that has gotten us in this situation.  This debt is a national security issue and we intend to confront it with the experience and even-handedness it requires.

    Review of the Past Week on the Campaign Trail:

    I participated in 4 more candidate debates this week.  We started off Monday evening with a 2 hour debate from Mansfield University in Tioga County that was broadcast live on PCN.   Tuesday and Wednesday brought debates in smaller venues with stop in Bellefonte on Tuesday and an event on Wednesday in Lewistown.   On Thursday all 3 candidates participated in a live 1 hour debate broadcast live on WPSU-TV.

    The one thing I’ve taken out of all these debates that I’ve participated in, some just with my Republican opponent and others that also included the Libertarian candidate, is I am on the right side of the issues that affect the majority of the people in the 5th district.  When you list off the issues we are regularly asked about in the debates — Fiscal Responsibility, Health Care Reform, Social Security, Public Education Policy, Energy Policy and the Iraq War, the stances I take which mostly mirrors the rest of the Democratic Party platform are in line with what I am hearing from voters in the 5th district.   We won’t know until next week if what I’m saying is really resonating with the voters in the 5th district but I feel confident that our message is strong and voters are listening.  

    Saturday finished the week with a strong day of campaigning.  I started out the day at 1 PM in Emporium, Cameron County for the fall Democratic luncheon.   I then made a 70 mile dash to Lock Haven to attend a 3 PM GOTV rally headlined by Gov. Ed Rendell.   I shared the stage with Rep. Mike Hanna, Obama campaign rep. Jayson Harpster, Clinton County Commissioners Joel Long and Adam Coleman, Lock Haven Mayor Rick Vilello and Clinton County Democratic Chairman Dave Wallace.   Then it was on to a 5 PM appearance in Boalsburg at the Centre County Democratic Fall banquet with Gov. Rendell and all the Democratic candidates representing Centre County.  The long day ended with a final stop after 7 PM in Lewistown for the Mifflin County Democratic Fall banquet.  

    Schedule for Upcoming Week:

    Monday — 6 PM —  Meeting with Federal Credit Union Members — Hampton Inn DuBois

    Tuesday  — 8 AM — Radio Interview WRSC

    Tuesday — 9:30 AM — Tour of AccuWeather

    Tuesday — 6:30 PM — Debate in New Bethlehem / Clarion County sponsored by League of Women Voters

    Wednesday — 7 PM — Penn State Political Science Debate — West Hall Commons Building — Main Campus

    Thursday — 8 AM — Radio Interview — DuBois  

    Thursday — 7 PM — WPSU Radio Debate

    Friday — 8 AM — Radio Interview with Jerry Fisher — State College

    Saturday — Time TBD — GOTV Rally in Clarion County

    Sunday — Time TBD — GOTV Rally in State College

    — Keep talking with people about the 5,000 Friends to Flip the Fifth project. We can win the 5th District Congressional District for the first time in 32 years but we need to be organizing our forces heading into the final weeks. The only way to turn this country around is to send people to Washington who will make the tough decisions. The choice in the 5th district is clear. My opponent regularly states that he supports the fiscal policies of the Bush administration AKA “the Bush tax cuts” and will continue them — More of the Same. While I continue to stress that we must balance the budget, built a surplus and pay down the debt.

    In order to get the message out to voters we will need to advertise which costs money. Please contact your family and friends and urge them to financially support our campaign as we move into the final weeks. Donations can be made online through or by direct mail to McCracken for Congress, PO Box 332, Clearfield PA 16830.

    Mark B. McCracken

    Your Candidate For Congress


    This diary is cross-posted at McCracken’s campaign blog, PA’s Blue Fifth

    Mark McCracken for Congress

    ActBlue page

    Al Gore: The Next 44 Days.

    The time has come to have a serious discussion about Al Gore and about whether or not you want him to run for President because let’s be honest with each other.

    Al Gore doesn’t have to run. He can go forward and fight his fights from the outside in. He can run a different campaign and keep winning it. If you were Al Gore, you probably wouldn’t run either. Do I think he would lose a lot of momentum if and when it’s clear he isn’t running for President? Hell yes. But he would still have plenty to do.

    But I’m here to say: we need Al Gore.

    Not from a “wouldn’t it be great and make the perfect t.v. movie moment and we fade from hanging chads to confetti at The White House” but from a real deep need: this country needs Al Gore.

    Al Gore thinks he is a lousy politician, he’s right. He is. We need some lousy politicians who say what they mean and mean what they say. We need some lousy politicians who can’t stop themselves from rolling their eyes when a member of the press asks a moronic question. We need someone who points out how stupid the captions are on t.v. shows. We need Al Gore.

    Al Gore lost a race in 2000 that shouldn’t have even been close. I love this about him as a potential candidate. We need someone who has run the race and lost because only someone who has lost can win in 2008. Why?

    Someone who has lost will laugh when the consultants tell him what they want to charge. (20 million for six months work in the McCain campaign for example, that’s what these people think is reasonable and those assholes will get jobs with someone else just you watch.)

    Someone who has lost will stick to what they think. Someone who lost and left in DC will look at DC and say hmm, I lived there? What was I thinking?

    Besides I don’t need another a candidate to learn from losing. Gore lost and learned. Kerry lost and someday will learn. I don’t need Barack or Hillary or Edwards to learn from losing – I need someone who has lost to win by learning from a previous lost.

    Furthermore, for a Democrat to win, and I truly believe this, we need to run an entirely different kind of race. When I see John Edwards’s first tv commercial or read Mark Penn’s strategy memo or see Barack’s response to ‘the troops not being funded,’ I don’t see anyone who has much of a clue.

    How about a Presidential Campaign that is new media driven where the candidate actually gets new media? How about a Presidential Campaign that has a contribution limit of $500 per person? How about a Presidential Campaign that’s about YouTube and bloggers and the soul of new media? Not just the bells and whistles of a souped up traditional campaign.

    Hell, how about a campaign that isn’t run by, for and about Washington and instead have one that is by, for and about the people?

    Paging Al Gore.

    We also need a Democratic candidate who publicly and loudly called the Iraq War a mistake right from the beginning. We need a candidate who didn’t vote without reading the intelligence and is now trying to correct a mistake.

    We need someone who was right from the start. Because let me tell you – if you think Iraq is a mess now, wait till the end of this year – and seriously, two of our three candidates voted for the war and the other, to be fair, wasn’t on the stage at the time. Of course, then there’s the guy who called it a disaster before it actually was one.

    That would be Al Gore.

    We need a Democratic candidate who has seen the worse the other side has to offer; who has seen how they fight and how they win. We need someone who understands the evil within the opposition. We need someone who is willing to bring a gun to the gunfight. Say Al Gore.

    We need a Democratic candidate who understands how the issue of climate change is impacting our world from a security standpoint, from a poverty and education point, we need someone who can use signing statements for someone other than torture. Al Gore springs to mind.

    And unfortunately so do two other things. The first is that Al Gore is not a candidate and has no plans to be a candidate as of today, July 17, 2007. I promise you that this is true. There are no plans, no secret committees, no planning sessions, nada, nothing.

    However, the door is not completely shut because Al Gore likes to say something like “I don’t know what I would have to see to change my mind but I would know it if I saw it.”

    Guess  what? The only thing Al Gore needs to see is a mirror.

    Because the only person who can stop Al Gore is Al Gore. And clearly, he needs a kick the ass on this one. Let me see if I can sum up my message.

    Dear Al:

    I get you have a great life, I saw you with Cameron Diaz at LiveEarth, I get it. I get you don’t don’t want to deal with the press, I saw Diane Sawyer soil herself on national tv in her interview with her. I get that answering the same stupid question is annoying.

    I get that the other side plays dirty and they love to turn their machine against you and make fun of your energy bills. I get that the campaign trail is a shitty place and the food is bad and you’re a long way away from your family. I get that you are making money and having fun and that it’s great to work with smart people like Steve Jobs. I get that we ignored you in the 1970s and 1980s when you were right about global warming.

    I get that you love your time with your family and your wife and your grandchildren.

    I get that you’re worried the support isn’t real. That you will lose again. That it will be like December 2000 all over again. I get the fear. I get that you really really really don’t want to run

    I get it. Really, I do. Guess what? I don’t care.

    Stand up. Let’s get to work.


    The recent poll out of New Hampshire, the first one to ask the question correctly, clearly shows the support for a Al Gore run is real.

    If Al Gore enters the race in New Hampshire, he wins.

    If Al Gore enters the race by October 15, he can run a four month campaign and win.

    So Al Gore needs to look in the mirror. He needs to see that there is one candidate who can not only win The White House, but win the country back. Al Gore knows his history. In the early days of our country, our forefathers risked everything for this country. Our early leaders ran not for themselves but for their country.  Al Gore knows this better than anyone, and Al Gore alone of all the potential candidates out there, needs to respect the history of your country and answer the call.

    This then is the core issue. Because the only person who can stand up and get this thing moving is Al Gore. He has to stand up and say:

    I am thinking about running,

    He doesn’t have to be sure. He doesn’t have to commit. But nothing is going to happen until instead of saying ‘no,’ he says ‘maybe.’

    And he has to do this by September 1. Then he sets up an Exploratory Committee but guess what? His committee is really to explore whether to run or not. He can raise money and then by October 15th, he has to declare. But here’s the thing. Money raised to the Exploratory Committee can be donated if not spent. So he could raise the money and say look, if I don’t run, here are the ten charities I will give the money to after I pay the bills.

    I will only accept donations up to $250 right now.

    And if I run, I will accept another $250 from you. No more than $500 per person.

    How much would he raise? Well, this has been a debate among the smarter people I know online and whole I certainly don’t want to name names here are the numbers.

    One prominent online strategist thinks $20 million in a month. Another thinks $30 million. And a lot of people think he could raise $40 million.

    Here’s how you get to $40 million.

    300,000 give an average of  $80 for $24,000,000

    64,000 higher end donors give $250 each.

    But a funny thing happens in you’re Al Gore – what do you need the money for? Television ads? Not sure you really need them. Mainstream media and the online world will carry your messages in a four month campaign.

    High priced consultants? I think he learned that lesson too. He can use the money to travel, set up rallies that are free to attend, he can hold concerts like LiveEarth and make them general admission for $25.

    He can barnstorm the country and speak to who he wants to, when he wants to. He doesn’t have to make fundraising calls or do lots of events. He doesn’t have to do tons of one on one interviews and meet the press, because the press will come meet him.

    He was $20,000,000 to spend on travel, staff, and signs.

    Can he raise $20,000,000? You tell me.

    150,000 give an average of $80 for $12,000,000.

    32,000 higher end donors give $250 each.

    That’s will happen.

    So there you have it.

    Set up a committee and raise $20 million and worst case, $15 – $18 million gets donated to charity. Set up a committee and you only get $2,000,000 – well, it’s still a good month raising money for charity. And people like me shut up.

    Set up a committee and see if everyone who is blathering like me will put their money where their mouth is. I will. I promise.

    Set up a committee and see what the polls really do when you’re really in the race.

    Set up a committee and explore.

    There can be a million draft Gore posts and a million people who write about him running.

    There can be a thousand emails sent and a million comments online.

    I have very smart top political friends who have sketched out fundraising plans.

    One of the smartest political people I know has a plan for Iowa, ready for the taking.

    I know people in New Hampshire, Iowa, South Carolina, Florida, California, Washington State, they all call me and say “do you think there’s a chance?”

    It’s the number one question I get in the traditional press.

    It’s the number one question I get online.

    And the answer to the question is to set up a committee.

    Guess who the only person who can answer that question?

    Al Gore.

    And he now has just under 45 days to answer it.

    Al Gore: The Support is Real

    When I watched former Vice President Gore on Larry King, it seemed as if he didn’t truly believe that the ‘real people’ on the street were really telling the truth when they said, every single one, of them: please run.

    Well, a poll released this week in New Hampshire shows that the support is real, very real. Here’s the highlight.

    The Gore factor:

    The only obstacle for Clinton in the Democratic primary is Al Gore.  Twenty-nine percent of Clinton voters would switch to Gore if he announced for president, and when all of the switches from other Democratic candidates were recalculated, Gore would defeat Clinton.  In total, 32 percent of Democratic voters would support Gore over the candidate they are currently leaning toward.

    Here’s why this poll is so important.

    First of all, New Hampshire has seen every single person who is running about 15 times by now. They’ve seen them in big crowds and small meetings. They’ve seen their television commercials and heard the speeches. They take their role as first primary very seriously up there and they are not likely to be swayed by the flavor of the month.

    So the fact that in New Hampshire, Al Gore is leading the minute he enters the race — pretty amazing. It’s also amazing because D.C. types are saying Gore is running out of time, he has to raise money, build infrastructure, create a ground operation in Iowa and New Hampshire.

    Maybe not.

    Maybe Al Gore can get in the race, October 15 is my bet. Maybe Al Gore can get in, run a true progressive campaign driven the community online. Maybe he can ignore the mainstream media that were just pathetic in the coverage of his great new book.

    The poll also says this about what’s important to the voters there:

    Iraq, the lead issue:

    The most important issue to New Hampshire voters was the Iraq war (34 percent), followed by Homeland Security/terrorism (19 percent), health care (15 percent), economy/jobs (8 percent), education (7 percent), and the environment (7 percent).

    So, it’s not all about the environment. Seems to me that the voters in New Hampshire know what they’re looking for. And his name is Al Gore.

    If you want Al Gore to run, draft him!

    Cross Posted at Daily Kos and MyDD

    Fact #1: Despite twelve listed candidates, a majority of the Netroots want Al Gore to be the Democratic nominee for President in 2008.

    Fact #2: Al Gore is on the record as saying he has little interest in running, but has said “I haven’t completely ruled it out.”

    Fact #3: There has been little effort to draft Al Gore.

    This is largely an extension of PsiFighter37’s diary where he points out that there is little unified effort to draft Gore to run.  I wouldn’t be writing this if I didn’t wholeheartedly agree with him.

    The best recent example of a successful draft movement has to be Jim Webb – Webb entered the race and won the primary largely because of the guaranteed support he knew he was going to get if he chose to run.  I was one of the many who pledged to volunteer for the campaign should he run, and sure enough, I trekked down to Virginia on Election Day to help get out the vote in Arlington.

    I strongly believe that Al will run if a lot of ordinary people want him to.  As PsiFighter37 points out, there is no single draft that has gained noticeable traction, but seems to have, by a considerable margin, the most signatures thus far at about 17,100.  I propose we make this the “official” draft for Al Gore supporters.  This means more than just signing – it means emailing and spreading the word to all of your Democratic (and non Democratic) friends.  With about 400,000 visits every day to Daily Kos alone, there is no reason we cannot pump that number into six digits in little to no time.

    After writing this diary, I am going to contact Draft Gore and ask that they personally deliver the petitions to Al on behalf of all of us that support him.  If they cannot or will not do so, I will ask them if I can deliver them myself.  But 17,100 is not enough folks – lets get that number up to 50,000 by the end of today…I have never asked that one of my diaries be recommended, but if you want Al Gore to run and represent the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party, you’ll do more than just vote for him in a Daily Kos Fantasy Poll.  A draft movement is necessary and it needs to start NOW!

    Another thing that you can do is donate to the Draft Gore ActBlue page.  Remember: the number of donors is far more important than the total money raised.  Al wants to see that he has supporters, not how rich his supporters are.  And your money will not be wasted should he choose not to run: if that happens – and we all hope that it doesn’t – the funds will be to the DNC.

    Please get involved.  If you care about the future of our country, you need to join me and the 17,100 others in drafting Al.

    Note: I am in no way affiliated with the Draft Gore website or organization.