Tag: 2010 House Open Seat Watch

After Kay Hagan utterly spanked Liddy Dole earlier this month, and North Carolina turned blue at the Presidential level for the first time since 1976, it’s no surprise that Democrats are painting a fat target on the back of North Carolina’s remaining GOP Senator — Richard Burr. One possible candidate who’s received a lot of buzz is state Attorney General Roy Cooper, but another potential candidate is 11th District Rep. Heath Shuler, who will be starting his second term in the House next year. Shuler is very much keeping the door open to a statewide bid:

U.S. Rep. Heath Shuler is not yet sworn into his second term, but some Democrats hope he sets his sights two years from now on a run for the Senate.

That election would pit Democratic nominee Shuler, a star quarterback at Swain County High School and the University of Tennessee, against U.S. Sen. Richard Burr, who played defensive back at Wake Forest.

Shuler said he has not ruled out a run for Senate, but wants to focus now on Congress.

“First and foremost, I am going back to Washington and work on the economy,” Shuler said. “At this point in time we need to focus on the economy.”

As a popular figure in his western, Appalachian district, Shuler would offer a lot of strengths as a candidate. As for holding his open House seat, our friends at Public Policy Polling are optimistic:

The immediate concern is whether a Shuler run would cost the Democrats a Congressional seat that they reclaimed for the first time in 16 years just one election ago, but I think there is a strong bench in that district.

John Snow represents a very Republican eight county state Senate district contained completely within the 11th District and won every single one of the counties in his reelection bid this year even as Barack Obama won just one of them.

Joe Sam Queen is the Senator for a similarly Republican district in the Mountains. He won four out of six counties this year in his reelection bid: the two counties he lost are in the 10th District while the ones he won are all within the 11th.

If Shuler ran the Democrats’ recruitment should start with those guys since it’s imperative the Democrats nominate someone who’s shown an ability to win outside Buncombe County.

The first House open seat of the 2010 election:

With the 2008 election season over, Rep. Jerry Moran wasted little time taking the next step in his likely bid for higher office.

The western Kansas Republican filed paperwork Friday that allows him to accept contributions for a U.S. Senate campaign.

Moran, of Hays, has been telling constituents for months that he plans to seek the seat being vacated in 2010 by Republican Sam Brownback. His statement of candidacy filed with the Federal Election Commission and the secretary of the U.S. Senate formalizes that process.

“Jerry was on the ballot for the U.S. House for the last time,” Moran spokesman Travis Murphy said Friday. “He’s made his intentions known for some time that this was his plan.”

Don’t get your hopes up. This seat had a PVI of R+20. We don’t yet know how Obama did here, but it can’t have been great. Perhaps of greater interest to open-seat fans is this tidbit:

Moran may not be the only prominent Republican laying the groundwork for a Senate bid. Rep. Todd Tiahrt, of the Wichita area, has not ruled out such a campaign and has been traveling the state recently to raise his profile outside his south-central Kansas district.

“An open Senate seat will draw a lot of interest, and my feeling is Kansas will not have two senators from the same congressional district,” Tiahrt said Friday, a reference to Republican Sen. Pat Roberts, who also represented western Kansas before ascending to the Senate. “I can guarantee there will be others who will get into this race.”

Tiahrt swamped what had looked like a promising challenge from state Sen. Donald Betts by a punishing 64-32 margin. I wouldn’t expect this R+12 district to be much more promising as an open seat, but you never know. At the very least, another Pearce vs. Wilson-style GOP senate primary would be fun.

It’s official — Rahm Emanuel will sign on as Obama’s Chief of Staff (potentially a great move for Obama, in my opinion). While the timeline is unclear, Rahm will soon be stepping down from his seat in the House, triggering a special election. Rahm’s district has a PVI of D+18, so there’s no reason why we can’t fill this seat with a solid progressive.

This leads me to ask — where else might we see retirement (or resignation) announcements before the next election? Roy Blunt is stepping down as the House Minority Whip, and you have to wonder whether he’ll ride off into the sunset and quit politics altogether. And there are plenty of crusty GOP oldsters like Roscoe Bartlett (MD-06), Bill Young (FL-10), and Ralph Hall (TX-04) who may call it a day. And on the Dem side, Leonard Boswell will always be the subject of retirement rumors.

It’s never too early to start thinking ahead to the next round of elections. Which House seats do you think might open up in the next two years?

This news comes as a bit of a downer for us.  Apparently, the GOP arm-twisted John Shadegg into un-retiring, according to this article from the Arizona Republic.

Too bad.  On the up-side, I guess we’ll be able to portray him as someone who is not committed to serving in Congress, since he had to be begged to stay on.

Crumb-bum Bill Young has long been considered a potential retirement for the GOP this cycle–and Democrats are hungry for the shot at an open seat race in this tossup district (at D+1, it supported Gore in ’00 and Bush in ’04 by the slimmest of margins).  Let’s take a look at some of the press that Young has earned over the year and see what the story tells us:

February 16, 2007 (House Race Hotline):

Nat’l Dems “are aggressively working to recruit someone to run” for Rep. Bill Young’s (R) seat, “pegging it as one of their top targets.” A DCCC recruiter “recently met with prospective” Dem candidates including ex-state House Speaker Peter Wallace (D), ex-state Rep. Lars Hafner (D) and businessman/neighborhood activist Karl Nurse (D). […] The challengers, though, have their doubts. Wallace on Young: “I’d be very surprised if a highly competitive campaign could be run against him.”

February 20, 2007 (House Race Hotline):

Dems “sounded the opening bell last week,” firing off an e-mail from FL party leaders suggesting that Young already “is seated squarely in Dems’ sights.” They attempted to link Young to the Walter Reed scandal in the e-mail. A DCCC operative suggested that Young’s alleged proximity to the Walter Reed scandal likely could be a “rallying point” for an already packed field of “likely” candidates.  Dems “are courting” state Sen. Charlie Justice (D), state Reps. Rick Kriseman (D) and Bill Heller (D), ex-FL House Speaker Peter Wallace (D) and hospital Admin. Sue Brody. Dems say GOP leaders are “petrified” Young will opt not to run in ’08, which likely would set off a “primary scramble in both parties.”

May 15, 2007 (House Race Hotline):

Rep. Bill Young (R) said even he doesn’t know “how much longer he’ll stay” in Congress.  Young: “Nobody knows because I don’t know.”  But will he retire in ’08?  Young: “Let’s be honest: I’m thinking about it more than I did last year or the year before.” […]

But Young’s uncertainty has left GOPers “worried that he may be serving his last term.”

July 17, 2007 (House Race Hotline):

At 76, Rep. Bill Young (R) is unsure if he wants to retire, but just in case he decides to run, he’s “amassing” a “truckload of money.”  He has nearly $600K CoH for an election that is “more than a year away.”  Asked if the money was a sign he was running again, Young said, “I think you should take that as a sign that we are prepared to back up whatever decision we make.”  Young has voted with the GOP 84% of the time so far this year, “the lowest level since 1992, according to an analysis by Congressional Quarterly” (Adair, St. Petersburg Times, 7/17).

August 9, 2007 (House Race Hotline):

State Sen. Charlie Justice (D) was in DC last week “talking” with the DCCC about running against Rep. Bill Young (R).  Justice: “A lot of people have been asking me to aat least think about it, consider it.”  Justice, whose name “is also in the mix” of possible ’09 St. Petersburg mayoral cands, so running against Young “might boost” his name ID if Young “waits awhile to retire.”  Justice: “I don’t get into campaigns to raise my name ID for future races or to set myself up for a mayoral race.”  If I did it, I would run to win.”

October 2, 2007: Bill Young votes to deny victims of terrorism financial compensation.

October 13, 2007: Young posts his third quarter fundraising tally:

Bill Young (R-inc): $29K raised; $579K CoH

Huge stunner here.  […] These numbers are positively John Warner-esque.  Is Young looking for the exit?

Something is set to break here.