Tag: Richard Blumenthal

Whoa — now this just caps off the craziest day of horserace politics we’ve seen in a long time:

Senator Christopher J. Dodd, the embattled Connecticut Democrat who was facing an increasingly tough bid for a sixth term in the Senate, has decided to step aside and not seek re-election, Democrats familiar with his plans said Wednesday.

Mr. Dodd, 65, will announce his decision at a news conference later in the day in Connecticut.

Unlike Byron Dorgan’s tragic retirement decision in North Dakota, Dodd is actually taking one for the team here. Dodd’s well-documented baggage proved to be a tremendous burden for him in every poll we’ve seen of his re-election bid this year. PPP will also come out with a poll soon suggesting that Democrats would breathe a lot easier with longtime state AG Richard Blumenthal in Dodd’s place in November. Blumenthal has been notoriously reluctant to leave his AG perch, but he has made noises in the past year about taking a crack at the Senate (in 2012, against Lieberman), but this would be a much clearer shot for him. If he decides to pass, Democrats would have other perfectly suitable choices to turn to, including 5th CD Rep. Chris Murphy, who has proven himself to be a strong campaigner.

(Discussion already underway here and here.)

RaceTracker Wiki: CT-Sen

• AR-Sen: Shortest Senate campaign ever. Former Arkansas Farm Bureau president Stanley Reed, about one week into his campaign, dropped out today, citing health reasons. Reed, with his resume and connections, was considered a very credible candidate when stacked up against the rest of the ragtag band of misfits running for the GOP. On the Dem side comes the intriguing news that the SEIU is paying down Lt. Gov. Bill Halter‘s campaign debt. Daily Kos’s Jed seems optimistic that the SEIU is facilitating a primary run against Blanche Lincoln (they said he “has a very bright political future,” although not specifically referencing the Senate race), although, considering there were rumors that the SEIU’s anti-Gilbert Baker ad was interpreted as a sign to Lincoln that they had her back (in exchange for her cooperation on an HCR cloture vote), it’s also possible this could be a carrot from the SEIU to Halter to stay out of the primary. This one’s worth keeping an eye on.

• AZ-Sen: This might be a clue that there’s some growing substance to the rumors that ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth is gearing up for a primary run against John McCain. He’s in Washington DC this week, meeting with potential supporters including conservative advocacy group Citizens United.

• CT-Sen: I’m not sure how much sway former Democratic state party chair Ed Marcus has over Chris Dodd or anybody else, but he’s gone on the record advocating that Dodd hang it up and make way for Richard Blumenthal. Dodd’s people responded that Marcus has some sort of old grudge against Dodd.

• KY-Sen: Um, whoops. Rand Paul’s campaign manager Chris Hightower had to resign his post yesterday after local blog Barefoot and Progressive found racist comments on Hightower’s MySpace page (and also video of performances by Hightower’s death metal band… gotta love those crazy libertarians). (Wait… MySpace? Srsly?) Primary rival Trey Grayson’s campaign wasted no time jumping on this, adding some fuel to their argument that Paul isn’t coming from mainstream Republican turf.

• IL-Gov: Rasmussen added some gubernatorial numbers to their Illinois sample, finding fairly comfortable leads for both incumbent Pat Quinn and Dem comptroller Dan Hynes against their Republican opposition. It wouldn’t be a Rasmussen poll without something inexplicable in it, though, and this time it’s the decision not to poll former AG Jim Ryan, who’s probably the Republican field’s frontrunner. Still, Quinn beats state party chair Andy McKenna 41-33, state Sen. Bill Brady 45-30, and state Sen. Kirk Dillard 41-30, while Hynes beats McKenna 43-30, Brady 46-27, and Dillard 42-29. Interesting to see Hynes overperforming Quinn in the general, even as Hynes looks unlikely to make it out of the primary; that may have to do with some Blago-related stench coming off of Quinn (Blago’s ex-LG, although they had absolutely nothing to do with each other), or just the reversal of positions, where the former reformer Quinn is now the insider and the well-connected Hynes is now the outsider. In the Dem primary, long-time SoS Jesse White threw his endorsement to Quinn. The Dem field also shrank to only Quinn and Hynes as the two minor candidates were vanquished; attorney Ed Scanlon was knocked off the ballot, while activist Dock Walls withdrew.

• NY-Gov: It had looked like Erie County Exec Chris Collins had gaffed his way out of contention for a possible run for the GOP gubernatorial nomination (after a bizarre tirade against Assembly speaker Sheldon Silver). But with Rudy Giuliani pretty clearly out of the field and ex-Rep. Rick Lazio exciting absolutely nobody, it looks like Collins may still take a whack at it. He just hired a campaign consulting firm run by a former Giuliani aide.

• IL-10: One of the four GOPers in the field in the 10th, Bill Cadigan, has dropped out; without state Rep. Beth Coulson’s name rec or the money of Dick Green or Bob Dold, he really didn’t have a foot in the door. Speaking of Bob Dold, Bob Dold is now on the air with a TV spot touting Bob Dold’s conservative economic views. Bob Dold!

• MN-06: If there’s someone out there who seems like she’d be one of those crazy bosses, it’s Rep. Michele Bachmann. She’s had a terrible time holding onto chiefs of staff, and now she’s facing a rupture with her entire fundraising group, described as a “defection” (although it’s not clear where they’re defecting to).

• NH-02: This isn’t going to endear ex-Rep. Charlie Bass to the teabag set, as he seeks to reclaim his seat. Bass just got a $2,500 check from NRCC chair Pete Sessions’ PAC. The anti-establishment right already has to be inclined to support right-wing radio talker Jennifer Horn over the moderate Bass.

• OH-15: Ex-state Sen. (and 2008 loser) Steve Stivers won’t get the GOP primary to himself; he’s facing a challenge from the right from John Adams, who’s labeling himself as the “conservative alternative.” Stivers also faces third-party right-winger David Ryon in the general, similar to what hamstrung him last time and let Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy squeak into office.

• OH-17: Ex-Rep. (and ex-con) Jim Traficant is in the news again, sounding revved up to, well, yell and gesticulate a lot, as always. He’s also still talking about another run for Congress, although he’s not sure where. He said he’d circulate nominating petitions in three different districts. His former seat in the 17th is likeliest, although so too is the neighboring 6th.

• PA-10: The race in the 10th has been slow to take shape, compared with most other red-leaning districts held by Democrats. But with state Rep. Mike Peifer recently having announced he’s interested in a race against Rep. Chris Carney, now someone else potentially higher up the food chain is checking it out too: former US Attorney Tom Marino, who already (wisely) passed on the race in 2008.

• PA-15: Here’s one more district with teabagger troubles for the NRCC and the Republican establishment. Rep. Charlie Dent is facing his toughest challenge yet from Democratic mayor of Bethlehem John Callahan, and now comes word of a challenge in the GOP primary from 9/12 movement member Matthew Benol. There’s also a third-party teabagger awaiting Dent in the general, Jake Towne.

• TN-06: State Sen. Jim Tracy seemed to have an early edge on securing the GOP nod in the now-open 6th, vacated recently by Democratic Rep. Bart Gordon. That was bolstered by his recent announcement that he’d already raised $100K in funds just this week, and that he’d gotten the endorsement of fellow state Sen. (and potential primary rival) Bill Ketron. However, he’s got some competition from another fellow state Senator now: Diane Black announced that she’s joining the race too. (Black is from suburban Gallatin, while Tracy is from more rural Shelbyville.)

• TN-08: Republican candidate Stephen Fincher had been successfully playing the “I’m just a humble farmer/gospel singer who’s never even been to Washington” role for a while, it seems, but suddenly the teabaggers are turning their wrath on even him, too. They’re taking an issue with his fundraising, as almost all of his money is coming from nearby farm families who’ve maxed-out on donations (which is a good sign, as his big haul so far was just him picking the low-hanging fruit; now the real test comes). What’s alarming to the anti-pork crowd is that how deep in the pocket of Big Ag he seems to be; his supporters have received a cumulative $80,000,000 in farm subsidies, and Fincher himself has gotten $6,000,000 in farm subsidies over the years, including $800,000 in 2007 alone.

• WA-03: The Democratic field seems to be solidifying, with Olympia-area state Rep. Brendan Williams, a frequently-mentioned possible candidate, deciding against a run. With state Sen. Craig Pridemore and state Rep. Deb Wallace both in, the two main candidates are both from Vancouver instead. Also worth noting: peace activist Cheryl Crist is in the race for the Dems too. Crist primaried Brian Baird in 2008, doing well at the activist-dominated nominating convention but making little impact in the actual primary.

• GA-St. House: It’s official; David Ralston is the new Republican speaker of Georgia’s House, following the suicide attempt and resignation of former speaker Glenn Richardson. If you’re looking for broader implications, it takes Ralston’s name out of contention in the open seat in GA-09, where he’d been rumored to be interested in a run.

• Demographics: Josh Goodman does some neat number-tweaking, overlaying Census projections onto the 2008 presidential election to try and predict the 2052 election. Assuming that racial groups keep voting for the same parties at the same proportions, he projects 58-40 Democratic edge. Of course, that’s easier said than done, as, for starters, Hispanics could return to their 2004-level GOP performance; also, as he points out, “Heck, in 40 years the Tea Party and the Green Party might be the major players in contesting the all-important cyborg vote.”

• FL-Sen: There’s probably no good way to spin the firing of the head spinner: after weeks of unending bad press, Charlie Crist has decided the solution is to fire his long-time communication director, Erin Isaac. (Isaac contends that she left on her own, and the timing has nothing to do with Crist’s collapse.)

• IL-Sen, OH-Sen: Two little-known, never-been-elected rich guys are going on the air with TV spots in their respective Senate primaries: Democratic attorney Jacob Meister in Illinois, and Republican auto dealer Tom Ganley in Ohio. Meister may not have much hope in a field with three prominent candidates, but Ganley is trying to gain traction among the anti-establishment right against consummate insider pick Rob Portman in a two-way GOP primary fight. (Ganley’s buy is reportedly only for $60K, so it seems more oriented toward generating media buzz than actually reaching lots of eyeballs, though.)

• NC-Sen: Rep. Bob Etheridge still sounds genuinely undecided about whether to get into the Senate race or not, but he’s now promising a decision by the end of the week. The DSCC is actively courting Etheridge, despite the presence of SoS Elaine Marshall in the race. Meanwhile, two other possible contenders are circling, watching, and waiting: former Lt. Gov. Dennis Wicker says he may run if Etheridge doesn’t, and outgoing Chapel Hill mayor Kevin Foy is still considering the race, saying he’ll decide by the end of the month.

• SC-Sen: Ouch! Lindsey Graham just got a pretty strong repudiation from the local GOP in one of the state’s largest counties, Charleston County. They unanimously voted to censure Graham over his cooperation with Democrats and moderate GOPers. Graham isn’t up until 2014, but it certainly doesn’t bode well for his next primary.

• CO-Gov: Josh Penry’s jump out of the Colorado governor’s GOP primary may have been more of a push. Big-time GOP funder Phil Anschutz is reported to have personally contacted Penry to let him know that he’d be on the receiving end of the 501(c)(4) that he’d created to target anyone opposing establishment candidate ex-Rep. Scott McInnis. (Of course, with news of this having leaked out, that seems likely to just further enrage the teabaggy right and lead them to find a hard-right replacement who, unlike Penry, isn’t worried about having his brand besmirched for future runs. Could Tom Tancredo be that man?)

• CT-Gov: For about the zillionth time in his career, Democratic AG Richard Blumenthal decided not to run for a promotion; he says he won’t get involved in the newly-minted open seat gubernatorial race. However, Blumenthal did nothing to quash rumors that he’s waiting to take on Joe Lieberman in 2012, saying “stay tuned.” Meanwhile, Paulist financial guru Peter Schiff, currently running for the GOP Senate nod, confirmed that he won’t be leaping over to the gubernatorial race, either.

• SC-Gov: Fervently anti-tax state Rep. Nikki Haley has been a key Mark Sanford ally in the legislature, but she’s been lagging in the GOP gubernatorial primary race. A Mark Sanford endorsement would be poison at this point, though, so the Sanfords paid her back with a slightly-less-poisonous endorsement from Jenny Sanford instead. Still doesn’t really sound like the kind of endorsement you want to tout, though.

• FL-08: Republican leaders are increasingly sour on the candidacy of 28 year-old businessman Armando Gutierrez Jr., who is “pissing people off a lot” with his bare-knuckle style. The NRCC is still hoping to recruit a solid challenger to go up against “colorful” Dem Rep. Alan Grayson after months of recruitment mishaps, and the current batch of names being bandied about include businessman Bruce O’Donoghue, state Rep. Eric Eisnaugle, and state Rep. Kurt Kelly. Gutierrez, however, seems to be doing all he can to make the GOP primary an unpleasant proposition. (J)

• FL-19: The Democratic primary in the upcoming special election to replace Robert Wexler is shaping up to be a real snoozefest. Former State Rep. Irving Slosberg, who lost a bitter 2006 state Senate primary to Ted Deutsch, announced yesterday that he won’t be running and that he’s endorsing Deutch. (Slosberg probably has his eye on Deutch’s soon-to-be-vacant Senate seat.)

• ID-01: With state Rep. Ken Robert’s dropout in the 1st, Vaughn Ward had the GOP field to himself for only a couple hours before another state Rep., Raul Labrador, said that he’ll get in instead. Meanwhile, ex-Rep. Bill Sali has been speaking before conservative groups and is still considering an attempt at a rematch with Democratic Rep. Walt Minnick, and says he’ll decide by the end of the month.

• NJ-03: Democratic freshman Rep. John Adler has been seemingly running scared despite the Republicans not having recruited anyone in this swingy R+1 district, probably helped along by Chris Christie’s huge numbers last week in Ocean County. Republicans think they have the right guy to flatten Adler: former Philadelphia Eagles lineman Jon Runyan. Runyan isn’t retired but not on any team’s roster either, and is “considering” the race.

• NY-24: He lost narrowly in 2008 to Democratic Rep. Mike Arcuri, and now businessman Richard Hanna is making candidate-type noises again, with a press release attacking Arcuri’s health care reform vote. Hanna is thinking about another run; Republicans don’t seem to have any other strong candidates on tap in this R+2 district.

• SD-AL: Republican State Rep. Shantel Krebs decided against a run against Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin in 2010. She was facing a cluttered field, with Secretary of State Chris Nelson and state Rep. Blake Curd already in the GOP primary.

• Nassau Co. Exec: So I was wrong about the Seattle mayor’s race being the last one to be called: the Nassau County Executive race is now in mid-recount, and Republican challenger Ed Mangano has a paper-thin (24 votes) lead over Democratic incumbent Tom Suozzi. Democratic Nassau County Legislator Dave Meijas (who you might remember from NY-03 in 2006) is also in a recount.

• VA-St. House: The last House of Delegates race in Virginia was finally called; Republican Ron Villaneuva was certified the victor in the Virginia Beach-based 21st over incumbent Dem Bobby Mathieson by a 13-vote margin, although the race is likely to go to a recount by Mathieson’s request.

• WA-St. Sen.: Democratic State Sen. Fred Jarrett was picked by new King Co. Executive Dow Constantine (who defeated Jarrett in the primary) to be the Deputy Executive. Jarrett will need to resign from the Senate to do so, creating a vacancy in this Bellevue-based, historically Republican but recently very Democratic seat. In Washington, though, legislative vacancies are filled by appointment by the county council (Democratic-controlled in King County, as you might expect), so there won’t be a special election, and the appointee will serve until (his or her probable re-election in) Nov. 2010.

• Generic Ballot: Everyone in the punditsphere seems abuzz today that Gallup suddenly shows a 4-pt GOP edge in the generic House ballot, a big swing from the previous D+2 edge. (Most other pollsters show a mid-single-digits Dem edge, like Pew at D+5 today.) Real Clear Politics points out an important caveat: the last time the GOP led the Gallup House ballot was September 2008, and you all remember how that election played out. Another poll today is perhaps more interesting: Winthrop University polled just the Old South states, and finds a 47-42 edge for the Republicans in the generic House ballot in the south. Initially that may not seem good, but remember that most of the state’s reddest districts are contained in the south, so, after accounting for the heavily-concentrated wingnuts, this probably extrapolates out to a Dem edge still present in southern swing districts.

• Public option: With the prospect of an opt-out public option looming large, the topic of whether to opt out is poised to become a hot issue in gubernatorial races in red states next year. Several states already have opt-out legislation proposed, although it remains to be seen whether any would actually go through with it (when considering how many states turned down stimulus funds in the end despite gubernatorial grandstanding… or how many states have decided to opt out of Medicaid, as they’re able to do).

• WATN?: Congratulations to Charlie Brown, who has accepted a position in the Dept. of Homeland Security. Unfortunately, this means Brown won’t be back for another kick at the football in CA-04.

• FL-Sen: Here’s something of an ooops from Bob Mendendez at the DSCC: his comments last week where he seemed to leave out the possibility of a pickup in the open seat race in Florida prompted former Miami mayor Maurice Ferre to jump into the race, saying “You can’t write off Florida” (or at least that’s what Ferre said was the impetus, although that doesn’t seem like the kind of thing you do with less than a week of planning). This week, the DSCC is saying that Menendez misspoke and that they’re pleased with Kendrick Meek’s fundraising so far.

• KS-Sen: You might remember that yesterday we said that Democratic state Treasurer Dennis McKinney hadn’t ruled out running for Senate. However, a source close to McKinney tells us that McKinney (who was appointed after previous GOP Treasurer Lynn Jenkins was elected to KS-02) plans to run for Treasurer in 2010.

• CT-Gov: Jodi Rell is facing some possible ethical trouble; Democrats accuse her of spending state money for political purposes by hiring pollsters to do focus groups on the state budget, and have referred the matter to the Office of State Ethics. The polling seemed to veer into politics in terms of message-testing and looking at perceptions of AG Richard Blumenthal, a possible Democratic opponent. Rell has formed an exploratory committee for re-election, but we’re still waiting to see if she follows through; stuff like this may help chip away at her veneer of inevitability.

• MN-Gov: Here’s a first: someone’s not running for Minnesota governor. St. Paul mayor Chris Coleman decided against trying to wade into the crowded Democratic primary field, saying his work as mayor wasn’t done.

• NJ-Gov: One more pollster finds a super-tight gubernatorial race in New Jersey. Neighborhood Research, a Republican pollster (but not working for the Christie campaign) finds Chris Christie leading Jon Corzine only 36-35, with Chris Dagget pulling in 11. Their previous poll last month gave Christie a 4-point edge. Corzine’s campaign has apparently succeeded in making Christie just as widely disliked as Corzine — Christie’s favorables have dropped to 28%, equal to Corzine’s. Also, it doesn’t look like Sarah Palin will get to ride to Chris Christie’s rescue: the Christie and McDonnell camps have both given a “thanks but not thanks” to her offer of help, according to Politico.

• PA-Gov: GrassrootsPA, the rightosphere’s Pennsylvania outpost, commissioned a poll through Dane & Associates to see how Republican AG Tom Corbett matches up against his Democratic rivals (no Jim Gerlach head-to-heads, unfortunately). The sample size is a teeny-weeny 200, but the numbers line up with other polling: the closest race is with fellow statewide official, Auditor Jack Wagner, who trails Corbett 41-37. Corbett leads Philly businessman Tom Knox 44-36, Allegheny Co. Executive Dan Onorato 44-32, and ex-Rep. Joe Hoeffel 53-27.

• VA-Gov: Lots of poll watchers were waiting for the newest Washington Post poll of the Virginia race to come out, to see if it gave more favorable numbers to Creigh Deeds than we saw out of recent Rasmussen and SurveyUSA polls. WaPo tended to be a bit more favorable to Deeds, but they’re seeing what everyone else is seeing: Bob McDonnell now leads 53-44. Looks like whatever traction Deeds got post-thesis-gate has drifted away.

• WY-Gov: The main story in Wyoming is that everyone is still waiting to see whether Dave Freudenthal challenges Wyoming’s term limits law and goes for a third term. Former GOP state Rep. Ron Micheli is running regardless, as we reported recently, but there are a few other behind-the-scenes moves going on. State House Speaker Colin Simpson (and son of Sen. Alan Simpson), at some point, filed to open an exploratory committee (and would probably be GOP frontrunner if he got in). On the Democratic side, state Sen. Mike Massie has been touring the state rounding up support (with Freudenthal’s blessing), but says he won’t create an exploratory committee until he knows Freudenthal isn’t running.

• CA-03: Elk Grove city councilor Gary Davis has dropped his bid for the Democratic nomination in the 3rd, to go up against Rep. Dan Lungren (who squeaked by in 2008). Davis didn’t seem to be making much fundraising headway against physician Ami Bera and public utility executive Bill Slaton.

• CA-10: Republicans are hanging on to some glimmers of hope in the special election in the 10th, offering up an internal poll from David Harmer’s camp, by Wilson Research. The poll shows Harmer within single digits of Democratic Lt. Gov. John Garamendi, 41-34. (It also claims that, once you adjust for the 35% share that the GOP got in the primary, it closes to a 2-pt gap.)

• FL-24: Another three-way primary got less crowded, this time on the Republican side. State Rep. Dorothy Hukill decided to end her campaign for the primary to go up against Democratic freshman Suzanne Kosmas; Hukill will run for re-election instead. That leaves fellow state Rep. Sandy Adams, and Winter Park city councilor Karen Diebel in the Republican field.

• IN-02: It looks like Republican state Rep. Jackie Wolarski (generally known as “Wacky Jackie”) is set to launch her campaign against sophomore Rep. Joe Donnelly. She says she’s leaning in that direction and will open an exploratory committee by Monday.

• KS-02: The Democrats have nailed down a solid recruit to go up against Great White Dope Lynn Jenkins in the 2nd. State senator Laura Kelly, who has represented a Topeka-area district since 2004, announced today that she will try to reclaim the seat lost by Nancy Boyda last year.

• NY-19: This could get inconvenient for Republican Assemblyman Greg Ball, who’s going up against Rep. John Hall in this swing district. The New York Democratic Lawyers Council filed an FEC complaint against Ball this week, alleging a series of illegal solicitations, improper automatic phone calls, and illegal use of Assembly resources for his congressional campaign.

• NY-23: The establishment/hardliner schism continues unabated in the 23rd, where state Conservative Party chair Michael Long has sent around a memo calling on other conservative activists to stop funding the NRCC until it backs off its support for moderate Republican nominee Dede Scozzafava. However, Texas Rep. Jeb Hensarling didn’t get the message; the former chair of the Republican Study Committee (the House GOP’s right-wing ideological caucus) gave his endorsement to Scozzafava, on purely pragmatic grounds (saying “she’s the only Republican who can win”). This endorsement probably won’t resonate much outside the Beltway’s financial circles, though; I can’t imagine more than a handful of 23rd district residents know Hensarling’s name.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (3/23-25, likely voters, no trendlines):

Chris Dodd (D-inc): 45

Rob Simmons (R): 40

Chris Dodd (D-inc): 51

Sam Caligiuri (R): 30

Chris Dodd (D-inc): 53

Larry Kudlow (R): 31

Ned Lamont (D): 30

Joe Lieberman (I-inc): 25

Jodi Rell (R): 42

Dick Blumenthal (D): 28

Joe Lieberman (I-inc): 25

Jodi Rell (R): 43

(MoE: 4%)

After the extended flap about what his role was in allowing payment of the AIG bonuses, conventional wisdom on Chris Dodd seemed to turn on a dime in the last week, as he suddenly went from being considered relatively safe to being considered a lame, if not dead, duck. Research 2000 acted quickly to get into the field in Connecticut and get the first post-AIG-gate poll of CT-Sen, and it looks like the CW may be overreacting a bit in sticking a fork in Dodd.

Dodd’s favorables are still in positive territory, clocking in at 47-40. Dodd is also beating all his GOP rivals, including ex-Rep. Rob Simmons (who edged Dodd out by a point in a recent but pre-AIG Quinnipiac poll) by a 5-point margin. He’s in the below-50% danger zone against Simmons though, and he’s also uncomfortably close to 50 against little-known state senator Sam Caligiuri. (R2K also polls CNBC bobblehead Larry Kudlow, who last night ruled out a run.)

While it looks like we can put the fork back in the drawer, Dodd’s position is still precarious enough that Swing State Project is downgrading CT-Sen to “Lean Democratic.” AIG might be starting to recede in the nation’s rear-view mirror, but in his position as the Senate’s lead Dem on banking issues, he’s in a highly-visible hot seat for any further Wall Street scandals and crises… and if his last week is any indication, he’s gotten kind of rusty at dodging incoming fire. Simmons also remains a popular figure with a lot of upside; his favorables are 41-18.

This poll’s also a two-fer, as we look ahead to 2012. The good news is: Joe Lieberman fares poorly against both AG Dick Blumenthal and 2006 candidate Ned Lamont, narrowly trailing each of them. The bad news is: this is a three-way race, and if Republican governor Jodi Rell decides to jump in, she beats all of them handily. (Rell has favorables in the Mother Theresa/Joan of Arc realm, at 71-20.) It’s way too early to tell if Rell is interested in taking this route, though, and she certainly shouldn’t be considered “generic R,” as there’s a pretty steep falloff to whatever else is on the GOP’s bench.

Check it. Quinnipiac (2/5-8, registered voters):

Richard Blumenthal (D): 58

Joe Lieberman (I-Inc.): 30

(MoE: ±2.5%)

No need to adjust your TV sets — these are general election numbers, not some fantasy scenario where Lieberman tries to win the Democratic primary nomination again. Indeed, he would be foolish to even try, especially if state AG Dick Blumenthal gets into the race. Here’s an eye-popping number for you: among Democrats, Blumenthal steamrolls Lieberman by a devastating 83-9 margin! Of course, Lieberman has four years to try to repair his douche-stained reputation, and who knows if Blumenthal will really pull the trigger. However, with numbers like these, Blumenthal has every reason to finally throw down; this race may be his last real opportunity to wage a Senate campaign.

Meanwhile, Connecticut’s other Senator, Chris Dodd, continues his downward spiral:

A total of 42 percent of voters say they “definitely” or “probably” will vote to reelect Sen. Dodd in 2010, while 51 percent say the “probably won’t” or “definitely won’t” vote for him.

By a 54 – 24 percent margin, Connecticut voters say they are not satisfied with Sen. Dodd’s explanation of allegations that he received preferential mortgage treatment and 56 percent of voters say they are less likely to vote for him because of this controversy.

And that’s not all: Dodd’s approval has entered net negative territory for the first time in recent Quinnipiac polling history, with 48% of voters disapproving of his job performance to 41% who still give Dodd their approval.

If John Cornyn is successful in luring Rob Simmons or even a cash-flush self-funder into this race, it’ll be a significant accomplishment for the NRSC. At the very least, attacking this pressure point will force Democrats to reallocate resources to a defensive position — and who knows, maybe lightning could strike.

Just a quick diary: I overheard on the news earlier tonight that Stamford, CT mayor Dan Malloy wants to run for governor, but is waiting for Attorney General Richard Blumenthal to announce a decision.

Disclaimer: I am not endorsing Malloy, Blumenthal, or anyone else.  I’m just writing this because I heard about it.

Also, don’t forget the Election 2008 Superlatives thread!