SSP Daily Digest: 3/5

FL-Sen: Former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio has formed an exploratory committee for the Senate seat that Mel Martinez is vacating. However, if Crist runs, Rubio will bail to run for Governor, instead. (J)

NY-Sen-B: This would be pretty serious. Long Island Democratic Congressman Steve Israel is said to be considering a primary run against Kirsten Gillibrand, according to the NY Times. Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer and Rep. Carolyn Maloney are also openly mulling the race. (J)

KS-Gov: Looks like Kansas Dems are back to the drawing board not just in terms of the senate seat but also the governor’s mansion. Lt. Gov Mark Parkinson, who will be taking over for soon-to-be-ex-Governor Kathleen Sebelius, has reaffirmed his earlier statement that he wouldn’t seek the governor’s seat in 2010.

PA-Sen: Glen Meakem, a Pittsburgh-area right-wing internet entrepreneur, was one of the fallback options for a conservative primary challenge to Arlen Specter. He’s backed out of the fray, apparently deferring to Pat Toomey’s renewed interest in the race. (You may remember Meakem as the guy who personally financed those internal “polls” showing John Murtha neck-and-neck with his defrauder challenger last year.)

RNC: The RNC is transferring $1 million each to the NRSC and NRCC to help them dig out from under the 2008 debt and get back on the offensive. In other RNC news, one of the RNC’s three African-American members, Dr. Ada Fisher of North Carolina, is calling on RNC chair Michael Steele to step down in the face of his increasing, well, ridiculousness.

Census: Incoming Commerce Sec. Gary Locke says the Census will stay a part of his portfolio at Commerce. It also looks that sampling, which is the real methodological sticking point that’s the source of the political squabble over census management, won’t be used aggressively; Locke said that sampling will be used “minimally, as an accuracy check.”

NH-St. Sen.: It’s all but official: former Rep. Jeb Bradley is downshifting his career, to say the least. Tomorrow he’ll announce his candidacy for the New Hampshire state senate in SD-3. This will be an open seat vacated by a Republican, so it’s not even a potential GOP pickup. (Trivia time: I can think of at least two other ex-Representatives who are currently state senators. Can anybody name them?)

KS-Gov, KS-Sen: Sebelius to Take HHS

Kathleen Sebelius is on her way to Washington.

President Barack Obama on Saturday asked Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius to be his nominee for Health and Human Services secretary, according to two White House officials. The officials told CNN that Obama is expected to make the announcement Monday afternoon.

This will give current Lt. Gov. Mark Parkinson at least two years as Kansas governor (which may give him a leg up toward another term, if he wants, although he said he wouldn’t run for governor earlier). In terms of larger national implications, this takes Sebelius off the table for the open Kansas senate race in 2010, which she had a good shot to win according to Research 2000.

UPDATE (David): With this move, KS-Sen unfortunately comes off of our Races to Watch list.

KS-Gov, KS-Sen: Obama Wants Sebelius for HHS

Very disappointing:

President Obama has settled on Gov. Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas, a key ally with a record of working across party lines, as his top choice for secretary of health and human services, advisers said Wednesday. […]

It remained unclear whether the White House would finish vetting Ms. Sebelius in time to finalize her nomination by next week. Advisers described her as “the leading candidate” and said there were no others to mention, although they emphasized no final decision has been made. After the troubles with Mr. Daschle and other recent nominees, the White House has intensified its vetting to make sure it thoroughly scrubs its choices before Mr. Obama gives the final signoff.

Assuming Sebelius is nominated and accepts the gig (and you would think she would have publicly declined by now if she were not willing to serve), Democrats will have a pretty barren shelf of possible candidates for the state’s open Senate race in 2010. What a bummer.

SSP currently has this race on our list of Races to Watch, but it’s hard to see how this contest heats up without the presence of Sebelius.

KS-SEN, KS-GOV, Sebelius for HHS Secretary?

This suddenly makes Phil Bredesen not sound so bad

Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius was very near the top of President Barack Obama’s list of candidates to head the Health and Human Services Department, a senior administration official said Saturday.

The source, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss private administration deliberations, said no decision was imminent. But the official added the former Kansas insurance commissioner was rising as Obama considers prospective candidates.

Now, Sebelius would certainly be qualified for the job, but this raises two important questions:

1. I thought the whole point of picking Daschle was to get someone who knew their way around the halls of congress. Unless Obama plans to enact his healthcare legislation by executive fiat a la Blago (and look at how well that turned out for him), it’s going to be essential that things with those blowhards in congress go as smoothly as possible.

2. Uh, hello, whose going to run for Sam Brownback’s senate seat? She’s probably not seriously interested in being a Senator if she takes this job, but it’s not as if she wouldn’t be able to be convinced as long as she’s not just starting a new job.

KS-Gov: If not Lt. Gov. Mark Parkinson, Who?

Cross posted from KansasJackass.com

With the news Lt. Gov. Mark Parkinson will not be running for Governor of Kansas in 2010, all of the political hacks of the state looked at each other and said, “OK, if not Parkinson, who’s going to run as the Democratic nominee?”

Speculation fell immediately at the feet of former Minority Leader of the Kansas House of Representatives and current state Treasurer Dennis McKinney.

While McKinney does seem to fit the bill as the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination, let’s assume for a moment he decides to run for the office he now holds, state treasurer, in 2010, rather than launching a run for Governor. Who else might the Democrats nominate?

The Kansas Republican Party Executive Director Christian Morgan said dismissively:

Who do they have that’s going to step up?” said Christian Morgan, the Kansas GOP’s executive director. “I think they have an incredibly short bench.”

It’s not the length of your bench that matters, Chris- it’s how you use it.  One would have thought you’d know that as well as anyone.

It’s true we don’t have the problem the Republicans have- that so many of our elected officials think they’re good enough, smart enough, and that, doggone it, people like them that the Republicans always end up with primaries that involve knees to the groin and pulled hair, the Kansas Democratic Party has talent that has governed efficiently at every level- the hallmark of a person who could lead our state.  Household names they might not all be, but we’re guessing “Sandy Praeger” wasn’t, either, before she was elected Insurance Commissioner.

On my short list of potential Democratic candidates for Governor, we have two mayors:  Joe Reardon of the KCK-Wyandotte County Consolidated Government and Carl Brewer of Wichita.  Hailing from the largest population centers of the state & the economic engines thereof, these two men are already executives with many of the same responsibilities as found in the governor’s office, just on a smaller scale.  Actually crafting a budget and implementing policies that effect the economy in very direct ways are both things Senator Sam Brownback can’t claim he’s ever done, and would make both men excellent candidates for Governor.

Jill Docking is always mentioned as a potential candidate for statewide office because she came so dang close to trouncing Brownback when he first ran for the United States Senate in 1996.  While she hasn’t sought elective office since that bid more than a decade ago, Docking has stayed active in politics and currently sits on the Kansas Board of Regents- so she has first hand knowledge of the budget disaster the state faces- again, something Senator Sammy just doesn’t have.

Securities Commissioner Chris Biggs might decide to make a run at the Governor’s mansion- he’s another person, like Docking, who has run statewide and only lost very narrowly.

Either of the big-name District Attorneys in Kansas would be excellent candidates- Nola Foulston from Wichita or Charles Branson from Lawrence.  A little dash of hard and fast law-and-order can’t hurt.  And, again, you’ve got that whole administrative experience thing that comes in awfully handy.  It’s also encouraging both of them just got re-elected in landslides.

Congressman Dennis Moore could certainly, certainly run and win- but he’s already told us he’s running for re-election, so we’re pretending he’s not available right now. Same goes for Attorney General Steve Six– he’d better be running for his spot in ’10.

State Senate Minority Leader Anthony Hensley, former Congresswoman Nancy Boyda, State Senator Laura Kelly or Kansas Democratic Party Chairman Larry Gates could certainly all raise the money necessary to make a competitive bid, as could State Senator Janis Lee or former State Senator Christine Downey.

Ready for some real wild cards?  How about Secretary of Social and Rehabilitation Services Don Jordan or Secretary of Agriculture Adrian Polansky, or Roger Werholtz from the Department of Corrections?  Before you laugh those folk off the playing field, remember what Sam Browback was before he ran for Congress….yes, that’s right, just a lowly Secretary of Agriculture.

So, there, a bench.  It’s obvious some of those folk are more likely than others to even consider a run, but each one of them could run for Governor and win the seat against Brownback or Secretary of State Ron Thornburgh or Insurance Commissioner Praeger or whoever else might decide to jump in on the Republican side.

What’s our power ranking?  McKinney’s out front, followed by Mayors Reardon and Brewer with Docking, Biggs, and the DA’s next.  That is about as tenuous a “ranking” as there as even been, seeing as none of the people involved have even said they might be interested in running.

Just remember this:  2010 is still a long way off, friends.

KS-Gov: Parkinson Won’t Run

The KC Star:

Kansas Lt. Gov. Mark Parkinson will not run for governor in 2010, leaving the Democrats with one less candidate to replace Gov. Kathleen Sebelius.

Parkinson, of Olathe, said Friday that he wanted to return to private life and that he would not run for any office. […]

“I admire those who are willing and able to make the sacrifices to serve the public for their entire careers, but I’m not one of them,” Parkinson said in a statement e-mailed Friday afternoon. “As exciting as it has been to be back in public service, I look forward to returning to the private sector when our term is complete.”

With Sebelius term-limited and Parkinson retreating into private life, the Dem bench is pretty bare. The go-to guy for Team Blue appears to be state Rep. Dennis McKinney, who was recently appointed by Sebelius to be the state’s newest Treasurer.

(Big ups to TXObserver for the catch.)

KS-Sen, KS-Gov: Statewide Recruitment Thread

GOP Sen. Sam Brownback is retiring from the Senate in 2010, and Dems have one big name on the bench who could actually make a race of his open seat — Gov. Kathleen Sebelius, who will be conveniently term-limited out of office that same year. However, Sebelius is also being rumored as a possible Secretary of Labor choice in Obama’s cabinet, and if he makes that move, that would likely take her out of contention. Accepting a Cabinet job and quitting after, say, twelve months to run for elected office again strikes me as something that would probably be frowned upon. (Yes, I’m aware that Mel Martinez and Mike Johanns both pulled this move, but each of those gentlemen served in Bush’s Cabinet for nearly three years each.)

Assuming that Sebelius doesn’t run (for whatever reason), is there anyone on the Dem bench who could make this race interesting? I have my doubts, but anything is possible. On the GOP side of the aisle, 1st CD Rep. Jerry Moran is running, and 2nd CD Rep. Todd Tiahrt could very well join him in a few months. Our best hope here is for a contentious and divisive Republican primary. Don’t let us down, Todd!

As for the Governor’s office, it seems likely that Sam Brownback will run for the seat himself. Are there any Dems who have a prayer against him? Of all the term-limited Democratic gubernatorial seats up in 2010, this one may be the likeliest to slip back into GOP hands.